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NASA NTRS2003

Observing the Global Water Cycle from Space

This paper presents an approach to measuring all major components of the water cycle from space. The goal of the paper is to explore the concept of using a sensor-web of satellites to observe the global water cycle. The details of the required measurements and observation systems are therefore only an initial approach and will undergo future refinement, as their details will be highly important. Key elements include observation and evaluation of all components of the water cycle in terms of the storage of water-in the ocean, air, cloud and precipitation, in soil, ground water, snow and ice, and in lakes and rivers-and in terms of the global fluxes of water between these reservoirs. For each component of the water cycle that must be observed, the appropriate temporal and spatial scales of measurement are estimated, along with the some of the frequencies that have been used for active and passive microwave observations of the quantities. The suggested types of microwave observations are based on the heritage for such measurements, and some aspects of the recent heritage of these measurement algorithms are listed. The observational requirements are based on present observational systems, as modified by expectations for future needs. Approaches to the development of space systems for measuring the global water cycle can be based on these observational requirements.

Hildebrand, Peter H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improved Estimate of Phobos Secular Acceleration from MOLA Observations

We report on new observations of the orbital position of Phobos, and use them to obtain a new and improved estimate of the rate of secular acceleration in longitude due to tidal dissipation within Mars. Phobos is the inner-most natural satellite of Mars, and one of the few natural satellites in the solar system with orbital period shorter than the rotation period of its primary. As a result, any departure from a perfect elastic response by Mars in the tides raised on it by Phobos will cause a transfer of angular momentum from the orbit of Phobos to the spin of Mars. Since its discovery in 1877, Phobos has completed over 145,500 orbits, and has one of the best studied orbits in the solar system, with over 6000 earth-based astrometric observations, and over 300 spacecraft observations. As early as 1945, Sharpless noted that there is a secular acceleration in mean longitude, with rate (1.88 + 0.25) 10(exp -3) degrees per square year. In preparation for the 1989 Russian spacecraft mission to Phobos, considerable work was done compiling past observations, and refining the orbital model. All of the published estimates from that era are in good agreement. A typical solution (Jacobson et al., 1989) yields (1.249 + 0.018) 10(exp -3) degrees per square year. The MOLA instrument on MGS is a laser altimeter, and was designed to measure the topography of Mars. However, it has also been used to make observations of the position of Phobos. In 1998, a direct range measurement was made, which indicated that Phobos was slightly ahead of the predicted position. The MOLA detector views the surface of Mars in a narrow field of view, at 1064 nanometer wavelength, and can detect shadows cast by Phobos on the surface of Mars. We have found 15 such serendipitous shadow transit events over the interval from xx to xx, and all of them show Phobos to be ahead of schedule, and getting progressively farther ahead of the predicted position. In contrast, the cross-track positions are quite close to the predicted values. Assuming that the along-track discrepancy is small enough that we can linearize the corrections, we model the mean orbital longitude as a quadratic function of time, and solve for corrections to the constant, linear, and quadratic terms. The time span of the recent observations is insufficient to properly resolve this issue alone, but when the 127 years of prior observations are added, we find a solution which reduces misfit to the new observations considerably, and makes no significant change to the fit to earlier observations. Our estimate for the secular acceleration term is (1.367 + 0.006) degrees per square year. The corresponding rate of energy dissipation is 3.34 MW. From a geophysical perspective, a more interesting parameter than the secular acceleration itself is the tidal lag angle, or tidal quality factor Q, for Mars. Unfortunately, the limiting error source in that determination is remaining uncertainty in the tidal Love numbers at harmonic degrees 2,3, and even 4. Until those parameters are better constrained, improvement in the orbital model of Phobos will not provide corresponding benefits for understanding the interior of Mars.

Bills, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS2009

CEOS Contributions to Informing Energy Management and Policy Decision Making Using Space-Based Earth Observations

Earth observations are playing an increasingly significant role in informing decision making in the energy sector. In renewable energy applications, space-based observations now routinely augment sparse ground-based observations used as input for renewable energy resource assessment applications. As one of the nine Group on Earth Observations (GEO) societal benefit areas, the enhancement of management and policy decision making in the energy sector is receiving attention in activities conducted by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS has become the "space arm" for the implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) vision. It is directly supporting the space-based, near-term tasks articulated in the GEO three-year work plan. This paper describes a coordinated program of demonstration projects conducted by CEOS member agencies and partners to utilize Earth observations to enhance energy management end-user decision support systems. I discuss the importance of engagement with stakeholders and understanding their decision support needs in successfully increasing the uptake of Earth observation products for societal benefit. Several case studies are presented, demonstrating the importance of providing data sets in formats and units familiar and immediately usable by decision makers. These projects show the utility of Earth observations to enhance renewable energy resource assessment in the developing world, forecast space-weather impacts on the power grid, and improve energy efficiency in the built environment.

Eckman, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗
NASA NTRS2012

Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method

The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems

Gelaro, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2009

Observation Denial and Performance of a Local Mesoscale Model

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) wind tower network and the CCAFS (XMR) daily rawinsonde observations (RAOB) to issue and verify wind advisories and warnings for operations. These observations are also used by the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) in Houston, Texas and the Melbourne, Florida National Weather Service office to initialize their locally run mesoscale models. SMG also uses the observations to support shuttle landings at the KSC Shuttie Landing Facility. Due to impending budget cuts, some or all of the KSC/CCAFS wind towers on the east-central Florida mainland and the XMR RAOBs may be eliminated. The loss of these data may impact the forecast capability of the 45 WS and SMG. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a modeling study to determine how important these observations are to the accuracy of the model output used by the forecasters as input to their forecasts. To accomplish this, the AMU performed a sensitivity study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (NRF) model initialized with and without KSC/CCAFS wind tower and XMR RAOB observations. The AMU assessed the accuracy of model output by comparing peak wind forecasts with operationally significant wind advisory and warning criteria forecast by the 45 WS. To assess model performance when initialized with and without some of the wind tower and XMR RAOB observations, the AMU conducted a subjective analysis by displaying model wind forecasts graphically with the observations overlaid for comparison and they conducted an objective analysis by comparing the maximum peak wind forecast to the maximum peak wind observed within the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. Data were collected for twelve warm season cases and eight cool season cases from June - September 2007 and November - January 2008, respectively. For each case chosen, the 45 WS must have issued a wind advisory or warning for the KSC/CCAFS area and the KSC/CCAFS wind towers must have recorded significant wind events, or winds greater than 18 kt.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Observational Evidence of a Suppressed Planetary Boundary Layer in Northern Gale Crater, Mars as Seen by the Navcam Instrument Onboard the Mars Science Laboratory Rover

The Navigation Cameras (Navcam) of the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, have been used to examine two aspects of the planetary boundary layer: vertical dust distribution and dust devil frequency. The vertical distribution of dust may be obtained by using observations of the distant crater rim to derive a line-of-sight optical depth within Gale Crater and comparing this optical depth to column optical depths obtained using Mastcam observations of the solar disc. The line of sight method consistently produces lower extinctions within the crater compared to the bulk atmosphere. This suggests a relatively stable atmosphere in which dust may settle out leaving the air within the crater clearer than air above and explains the correlation in observed column opacity between the floor of Gale Crater and the higher elevation Meridiani Planum. In the case of dust devils, despite an extensive campaign only one optically thick vortex (tau = 1.5 +/- 0.5 10(exp -3)) was observed compared to 149 pressure events greater than 0.5 Pa observed in REMS pressure data. Correcting for temporal coverage by REMS and geographic coverage by Navcam still suggests 104 vortices should have been viewable, suggesting that most vortices are dustless. Additionally, the most intense pressure excursions observed on other landing sites (pressure drop greater than 2.5 Pa) are lacking from the observations by the REMS instrument. Taken together, these observations are consistent with pre-landing circulation modeling of the crater showing a suppressed, shallow boundary layer. They are further consistent with geological observations of dust that suggests the northern portion of the crater is a sink for dust in the current era.

Navcam↗
NASA NTRS2013

Connecting Satellite Observations with Water Cycle Variables Through Land Data Assimilation: Examples Using the NASA GEOS-5 LDAS

A land data assimilation system (LDAS) can merge satellite observations (or retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, satellite observations do not correspond directly to the water cycle variables of interest. The present paper addresses various aspects of this seeming mismatch using examples drawn from recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-5 LDAS. These aspects include (1) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (2) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (3) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based soil moisture and snow assimilation, and (4) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable that is not observed (such as root zone soil moisture). The solution to these challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations.

Land data assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2013

Re-Greening Sahel: 30 Years of Remote Sensing Data and Field Observations (Mali, Niger)

Desertification of the Sahel region has been debated for decades, while the concept of a "re-greening" Sahel appeared with satellite remote sensing data that allowed vegetation monitoring across wide regions and over increasingly long series of years (nowadays 30 years with the GIMMS-3g dataset). However, the scarcity of long-term field observations of vegetation in the Sahel prevents ground validation and deeper analysis of such trends. After assessing the consistency of the new GIMMS-3g NDVI product by comparison to three other AVHRR-NDVI datasets and MODIS NDVI, regional GIMMS-3g NDVI trends over 1981-2011 are analyzed. Trends are found positive and statistically significant almost everywhere in Sahel over the 1981-2011 period. Long-term field observations of the aboveground herbaceous layer mass have been collected within the Gourma region in Mali (1984-2011) and within the Fakara region in western Niger (1994-2011). These observations sample ecosystem and soil diversity, thus enabling estimation of averaged values representative of the Gourma and Fakara. NDVI measurements are found in good agreement with field observations, both over the Gourma and Fakara regions where re-greening and negative trends are observed respectively. A linear regression analysis performed between spatially averaged seasonal NDVI and a weighted average of field measurements explains 59% of the variability for the Gourma region over 1984-2011, and 38% for the Fakara region over 1994-2011. In the Gourma, which is a pastoral region, the re-greening trend is mainly observed over sandy soils, and attests for the ecosystem's resilience to the 1980s' drought, able to react to the more favorable rainfall of the 1990s and 2000s. However, contrasted changes in the landscape's functioning have occurred locally. An increase in erosion and run-off processes in association with decreasing or stable vegetation cover was observed over shallow soils, which occupy 30% of the area. In the agro-pastoral Fakara, the decreasing trends observed both from satellite NDVI and field assessments of herbaceous mass are hardly explained by rainfall. These results give confidence in the dominant positive trends in Sahelian greenness, but indicate that degradation trends can also be observed, both in situ and from satellite time series.

Sahel↗
NASA NTRS2015

Multispectral Evidence of Alteration from Murray Ridge to Marathon Valley Observed by the Opportunity Pancam on the Rim of Endeavour Crater, Mars

The Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity has been traversing the rim of the Noachian‐aged, 22 km diameter Endeavour crater. Circa sol 3390 of its mission, Opportunity reached the northern tip of the rim segment known as Solander Point and has since been traversing the rim to the south to its current location at the break in the rim known as Marathon Valley. The rocks making up the rim are dominated by impact breccias consisting of clasts and a finer‐grained matrix. Several segments of the rim are transected by fractures as observed from orbital HiRISE imagery. Pancam multispectral observations of outcrop in these fracture regions, including part of the rim crest dubbed Murray Ridge, the Hueytown fracture, and Marathon Valley have been made. Over the range of 430 to 1010 nm there are changes in the multispectral reflectance signature of the breccia matrix with an increase in 535 nm and 904 nm band depth. This is attributed to oxidation and an increase in ferric oxides in these areas. In situ observations by the rover's APXS also indicate chemical differences associated with the matrix along these fractures, including increasing Fe/Mn southward from Solander Point to a region having an Al‐OH signature in CRISM spectra, and generally higher SO3 in the Hueytown fracture region and the area around Spirit of St. Louis. Overturned rocks observed on Murray Ridge were determined by the APXS to have elevated Mn and Pancam spectra of the high Mn spots have a characteristic red, featureless slope. This spectrum was also observed in association with some coatings on blocks of the sulfate‐rich Grasberg formation. Spectra resembling red hematite are observed in some zones in association with the craterform feature Spirit of St. Louis outside the mouth (to the west) of Marathon Valley. Marathon Valley itself has been observed from orbital hyperspectral observations by the CRISM sensor to host occurrences of Fe/Mg smectite minerals‐ indicating extensive aqueous alteration in this region. Pancam observations in Marathon Valley will play an important role in surveying outcrop and making VNIR spectral comparisons with clay bearing outcrop examined earlier in the mission at the Matijevic Hill region.

Farrand, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Retrieval of H2O Abundance in Titan's Stratosphere: A (Re)Analysis of CIRS/Cassini and PACS/Herschel Observations

Since its first measurement 20 years ago by the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO), the water (H2O) mole fraction in Titan’s stratosphere remains uncertain due to large differences between the determinations from available measurements. More particularly, the recent measurements made from the Herschel observatory (PACS (Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer) and HIFI (Heterodyne Instrument for the Far Infrared)) estimated the H2O mole fraction to be 0.023 parts per billion at 12.1 millibars. A mixing ratio of 0.14 parts per billion at 10.7 millibars was, however, retrieved from nadir spatially-resolved observations of Cassini/CIRS (Composite Infrared Spectrometer). At the same pressure level (10.7 millibars), this makes a difference of a factor of 5.5 between PACS and CIRS measurements, and this has notably prevented current models from fully constraining the oxygen flux flowing into Titan’s atmosphere. In this work, we try to understand the differences between the H2O mole fractions estimated from Herschel/PACS and Cassini/CIRS observations. The strategy for this is to 1) analyse recent disc-averaged observations of CIRS to investigate if the observation geometry could explain the previous observed differences, and 2) (re)analyse the three types of observation with the same retrieval scheme to assess if previous differences in retrieval codes/methodology could be responsible for the previous discrepancies. With this analysis, we show that using the same retrieval method better reconcile the previous measurements of these instruments. However, the addition of the disc-averaged CIRS observations, instead of confirming the consistency between the different datasets, reveals discrepancies between one of the CIRS disc-averaged set of observations and PACS measurements. This raises new questions regarding the possibility of latitudinal variations of H2O, which could be triggered by seasonal changes of the meridional circulation. As it has already been shown for nitriles and hydrocarbons, this circulation could potentially impact the latitudinal distribution of H2O through the subsidence or up- welling of air rich in H2O. The possible influence of spatial/time variations of the OH/H2O input flux in Titan’s atmosphere is also discussed. The analysis of more observations will be needed in future work to address the questions arising from this work and to improve the understanding of the sources of H2O in Titan’s atmosphere.

Bauduin, S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Effects of a 1998 Observing System Change on MERRA-2-Based Ozone Profile Simulations

Model simulations of ozone (O3) driven by meteorological reanalyses are useful for filling observational gaps and interpreting observed O3 variability and trends. However, the transport circulation of reanalysis products is impacted by changes to the observing system (the data assimilated into the reanalyses). We examine the impacts of these changes on simulated O3 from two models, Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry Transport Model (GMI CTM) and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Applications version 2 (MERRA‐2) GMI Replay (M2 GMI Replay) simulation, using observations from global ozonesondes (>50,000 profiles) and satellites from 1980 to 2016. Both models are constrained by meteorology from the NASA MERRA‐2 reanalysis, and both use versions of NASA's GMI chemical mechanism. We focus on an observing system change affecting simulated O3 after 1998, associated with the assimilation of temperature and humidity data from new microwave profiling satellites. A large post‐1998 O3 increase, mainly confined to 15–20‐km altitude, of ~10 Dobson units (DU) in midlatitudes occurs in the GMI CTM, worsening the bias compared to observations. In contrast, an increase in M2 GMI Replay simulation O3 of ~10 DU is observed only near −60° latitude, reducing the bias compared to observations. The GMI CTM O3 high biases display a Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO)‐like periodicity that result from excessive transport from the tropical stratosphere to the midlatitude lower stratosphere during the QBO westerly phase. We quantify O3 discontinuities caused by MERRA‐2 observing system changes and demonstrate how the MERRA‐2 Global Modeling Initiative Replay simulation dampens the effects of these changes and QBO‐driven artifacts on simulated lower stratospheric and total O3. We caution against using simulations driven by a reanalysis to derive multidecadal O3 trends, especially prior to 1998.

Replay↗
NASA NTRS2019

Climatology of Transient Luminous Events and Lightning Observed Above Europe and the Mediterranean Sea

In 1999, the first sprites were observed above European thunderstorms using sensitive cameras. Since then, Eurosprite campaigns have been conducted to observe sprites and other transient luminous events (TLEs), expanding into a network covering large parts of Europe and coastal areas. In 2009 through 2013, the number of optical observations of TLEs reached a peak of 2000 per year. Because of this unprecedented number of European observations, it was possible to construct a climatology of 8394 TLEs observed above 1018 thunderstorm systems and study for the first time their distribution and seasonal cycle above Europe and parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The number of TLEs per thunderstorm was found to follow a power law, with less than 10 TLEs for 801 thunderstorms and up to 195 TLEs above the most prolific one. The majority of TLEs were classified as sprites, 641 elves, 280 halos, 70 upward lightning, 2 blue jets and 1 gigantic jet. The climatology shows intense TLE activity during summer over continental areas and in late autumn over coastal areas and sea. The two seasons peak, respectively, in August and November, separated by March and April with almost no TLEs, and a relative minimum around September. The observed TLE activity, i.e. mostly sprites, is shown to be largely consistent with lightning activity, with a 1/1000 of observed TLE-to-lightning ratio in regions with most observations. The overall behaviour is consistent among individual years, making the observed seasonal cycle a robust general feature of TLE activity above Europe.

Arnone, Enrico↗
NASA NTRS2020

Impact of Bias in the Marine Air Temperature Observation Set on Atmospheric Reanalyses

Marine air temperature observations are collected by volunteer observing ships carrying automatic meteorological sensor packages. Close proximity of the package mount to a dark colored ship's deck is known to introduce a warm bias on sunny afternoons in summer under low wind conditions. This observation set is used as an influential constraint in the MERRA-2 reanalysis, as well as several other reanalyses, in the poorly sampled surface marine boundary layer. Here we explore the consequences of bias in the marine air temperature observation set during the 36 year period 1980-2015. Marine air temperature observations have mainly been collected along major shipping routes, with the densest coverage in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. In the first part of this presentation we review the historical observation coverage and compare air temperature and contemporaneous SST measurements to identify systematic differences. The comparison suggests the presence of diurnal bias in the air temperature observations peaking in subtropics and midlatitudes latitudes in mid-afternoon local time. In the second part we explore the impact of the marine air temperature observations on MERRA-2 through analysis of the terms in the temperature forecast tendency equation, the equation which describes the contributions to changes in temperature during each analysis cycle. Examination of the temperature forecast tendency equation allows us to separate systematic errors due to such processes and radiation, mixing, and advection and allows us to identify the major source of systematic forecast tendencies. The results show that the marine air temperature measurements introduce an error that can reach 0.4K/dy which also peaks in local afternoon at subtropical latitudes. This bias varies with season and has gradually reduced from the beginning of the MERRA-2 reanalysis in 1980. In the final part we conduct numerical experiments with a version of the MERRA-2 analysis system, comparing experiments when the marine air temperature observations are included or withheld from the analysis system.

Akella, Santharam↗
NASA NTRS2021

The First Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Event Observed By Solar Orbiter on 2020 November 29

Context. On 2020 November 29, the first widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event of solar cycle 25 was observed at four widely separated locations in the inner (. 1AU) heliosphere. Relativistic electrons as well as protons with energies > 50MeV were observed by Solar Orbiter (SolO), Parker Solar Probe (PSP), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A and multiple near-Earth spacecraft. The SEP event was associated with an M4.4 class X-ray flare and accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) and an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wave as well as a type II radio burst and multiple type III radio bursts. Aims. We present multi-spacecraft particle observations and place them in context with source observations from remote sensing instruments and discuss how such observations may further our understanding of particle acceleration and transport in this widespread event. Methods. Velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time shift analysis (TSA) were used to infer the particle release times at the Sun. Solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements were examined to identify structures that influence the properties of the energetic particles such as their intensity. Pitch angle distributions and first-order anisotropies were analyzed in order to characterize the particle propagation in the interplanetary medium. Results. We find that during the 2020 November 29 SEP event, particles spread over more than 230° in longitude close to 1AU. The particle onset delays observed at the different spacecraft are larger as the flare–footpoint angle increases and are consistent with those from previous STEREO observations. Comparing the timing when the EUV wave intersects the estimated magnetic footpoints of each spacecraft with particle release times from TSA and VDA, we conclude that a simple scenario where the particle release is only determined by the EUV wave propagation is unlikely for this event. Observations of anisotropic particle distributions at SolO, Wind, and STEREO-A do not rule out that particles are injected over a wide longitudinal range close to the Sun. However, the low values of the first-order anisotropy observed by near-Earth spacecraft suggest that diffusive propagation processes are likely involved.

A Kollhoff↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Key Observations and Discoveries from the Vector Electric Field Investigation on the C/NOFS Satellite

Launched in 2008 and operating for 7.5 years, the Air Force Communication /Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite included the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) designed and built at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. VEFI successfully met its objectives: 1) investigate the role of ambient electric fields in initiating nighttime density depletions and turbulence; 2) determine the quasi-DC electric fields associated with abrupt density depletions, and 3) quantify the spectrum of the irregularities associated with density depletions, providing many key observations and discoveries including: -- Global (low latitude) vector DC electric fields at 16 s/sec revealing variations with local time, longitude, and season between extremely low and moderate solar activity-- Reversed zonal E x B drifts below the F-region ledge at sunset and simultaneous observations of large scale Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities as seeds of spread-F -- Large expanses of quasi-coherent kilometer-scale vector wave observations (electric field and density) below 450 km and their discovery as a source of scintillations using the C/NOFS GPS -- Reversed zonal DC electric fields and simultaneous observations of afternoon counter electrojet-- Enhanced zonal DC electric fields at sunrise and full vector plasma flow continuity at the terminator-- Vector electric field and density irregularities extending to meter-scales within equatorial plasma depletions -- Intense electric field structure within the equatorial ionosphere at night in the absence of density depletions -- First observations of the westward equatorial electrojet in post-midnight ionosphere and possible association with downward meridional drifts-- Spaceborne Dst observations and implications for ring current asymmetries-- Vector electric and magnetic field Poynting flux within depletions and TIDs-- Measurements of ionospheric reflectance and Alfvenic waves associated with TIDs-- Observations of Alfven resonators -- ULF magnetic field structure within the nightime equatorial ionosphere-- Discovery of Schumman resonances in space and implications of ELF radiowave propagation-- Vector observations of 50-60 Hz powerline radiation without harmonics-- Ion cyclotron resonance absorption lines associated with ELF hiss and the identification of ambient ions-- Parallel electric fields associated with lower hybrid waves driven by thunderstorm lightning-related sferics-- Discovery of Z-mode radiation in the equatorial ionosphere including its associated with density depletions-- Optical lightning detector waveforms and electric field sferics observed up to altitudes of 800 km

Robert F Pfaff↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of TAO Observation System on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Since the early 1990’s, the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) mooring array has been instrumental for observing Kelvin and Rossby wave propagation which is key for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. However, recent funding and programmatical issues have highlighted the need to rigorously assess the impact of the TAO observing system on ENSO predictions. Therefore, we evaluate the TAO using data assimilation observation denial experiments (also known as Observing System Evaluation or OSE experiments). This presentation will evaluate the TAO observing impact on both reanalyses and prediction of the big 2015 El Nino. We have completed reanalyses for July 2014-Dec 2015 for both the CONTROL experiment (that assimilates all available data) and the NOTAO experiment (that is identical to the CONTROL but withholds all TAO observations) using the best available NASA GEOS-S2S V3 seasonal prediction system. Validation of these reanalyses shows that TAO assimilation generally improves comparisons of temperature and salinity versus gridded in situ observations. Temperature is universally improved above the thermocline near the equator, but the biggest improvement is found in the eastern Pacific, just below the thermocline, where the variation of the thermocline defines ENSO events. In addition, a surprising result is that even with relatively few observations, salinity is improved throughout the equatorial region except near 120oW near the surface. ENSO forecasts were performed that were initialized from these CONTROL and NOTAO reanalyses. For the 9-month forecasts which were initialized in January, July, and October 2015, the NINO3.4 SST shows that the CONTROL forecasts are warmer and closer to observations than the NOTAO forecasts. We will show that upwelling and shoaling of the mixed layer amplifies the ENSO signal due to TAO assimilation. Prior to (after) April 2015, this upwelling is caused by relatively stronger Rossby (Kelvin) waves in the CONTROL than in the NOTAO experiments.

E. Hackert↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging Observing System Simulation Experiments for Satellite Instrument Design: Advancements and Challenges

This abstract highlights NASA's OSSE framework, developed at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, which has become a widely adopted tool for evaluating the impact of new observations on weather forecasts. The framework involves simulating realistic observations by introducing errors to mimic real-world scenarios. By utilizing advanced radiative transfer modeling, the accuracy of simulated observations is significantly improved, enhancing the reliability of experimental outcomes. The talk focuses on recent progress and challenges in three key areas. Firstly, it explores the techniques used to simulate synthetic observations, a crucial aspect of OSSE experiments. Secondly, the presentation also discusses the challenges of examining the observation errors that need to be added to the perfect observations to generate realistic simulated observations. Lastly, the assimilation of synthetic observations and their impact on forecast skills is evaluated, providing valuable insights for optimizing current and future observing systems for improving the weather forecasts. By sharing recent advancements and acknowledging challenges, this presentation seeks to inspire researchers to leverage the OSSE framework in weather forecasting. NASA's OSSE techniques hold promise for a better understanding of the atmosphere and the development of more accurate and reliable weather predictions.

Isaac Moradi↗