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At least 379 records · Page 21

Excessive Subsidence of the Southeast Atlantic Biomass Burning Aerosol Plume in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model

Global models struggle to accurately represent the meteorological environment over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean, as evidenced by the poor representation of persistent marine stratocumulus decks off the west coast of southern Africa. This complex regime also experiences significant seasonal biomass burning aerosol plumes that are transported from southern Africa over the Atlantic Ocean, which gradually descend via large scale subsidence and interact radiatively and microphysically with the cloudy environment of the region. In comparisons to space borne lidar and aircraft observations we find that the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model’s MERRA-2 aerosol and meteorology reanalysis shows that the aerosol plume descends too rapidly due to exaggerated large-scale downward vertical motion. This complicates the evaluation of aerosol properties utilizing aircraft observations collected throughout the ORACLES campaign as well as the model’s representation of the heating rate profiles due to the aerosol itself and its radiative interaction with the semi-permanent cloud deck typically located lower in altitude than the smoke. Two types of modeling experiments using GEOS will be presented to diagnose deficiencies in the model related to the excessive subsidence. Ensembles of free-running model simulations with and without radiatively active biomass burning aerosol will be used to quantify the impact of smoke on the atmospheric circulation. It will be demonstrated that heating within the aerosol layer results in self lofting through a reduction of the subsidence but did not alter the vertical placement or speed of the African Easterly jet. The amount of aerosol absorption required to eliminate the bias in the height of the aerosol plume through self-lofting will then be quantified. Finally, a second type of modeling experiment will be discussed in which the meteorology is constrained to observations. This will allow for biases in the height of the aerosol plume due to the general circulation model to be distinguished from biases that may be induced through the data assimilation process.

Allison Collow↗

Hybrid Modeling for Testing Intelligent Software for Lunar-Mars Closed Life Support

Intelligent software is being developed for closed life support systems with biological components, for human exploration of the Moon and Mars. The intelligent software functions include planning/scheduling, reactive discrete control and sequencing, management of continuous control, and fault detection, diagnosis, and management of failures and errors. Four types of modeling information have been essential to system modeling and simulation to develop and test the software and to provide operational model-based what-if analyses: discrete component operational and failure modes; continuous dynamic performance within component modes, modeled qualitatively or quantitatively; configuration of flows and power among components in the system; and operations activities and scenarios. CONFIG, a multi-purpose discrete event simulation tool that integrates all four types of models for use throughout the engineering and operations life cycle, has been used to model components and systems involved in the production and transfer of oxygen and carbon dioxide in a plant-growth chamber and between that chamber and a habitation chamber with physicochemical systems for gas processing.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Modeling Extreme 'Carrington-Type' Space Weather Events Using Three-dimensional Global MHD Simulations

There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al., (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst approx. = −1600 nT.

space weather↗

First-Principles Cost Analysis of Advanced High-Temperature Nuclear Plants

Due to the vast number of recent nuclear reactor innovations, particularly those pertaining to generation IV reactor types like high-temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs) and sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and the newer deployment strategies envisioned, such as use of small modular reactors (SMRs) or even microreactors, reliable, detailed, and complete costs of these nuclear innovations are needed in wide availability. The types of models that generally achieve these objectives are those incorporating the fundamental nature of the real-world systems they aspire to predict, such as first-principles models. Furthermore, first principles models typically offer predictiveness that is not attained by most other types of individual-models. However, detailed, first-principles cost modeling of nuclear reactors and entire nuclear plants is relatively limited. To address this limitation in the availability of detailed, predictive models based on fundamentals, we recently developed a range of cost models, mostly based on first-principles methodologies, to project full lifecycle costs (LCCs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on multiple parallel SM-HTG-pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and SM-SFRs.

Prosser, Jacob H. [Strategic Analysis, Inc., Arlin↗

First-Principles Cost Analysis of Advanced High-Temperature Nuclear Plants

Due to the vast number of recent nuclear reactor innovations, particularly those pertaining to generation IV reactor types like high-temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs) and sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and the newer deployment strategies envisioned, such as use of small modular reactors (SMRs) or even microreactors, reliable, detailed, and complete costs of these nuclear innovations are needed in wide availability. The types of models that generally achieve these objectives are those incorporating the fundamental nature of the real-world systems they aspire to predict, such as first-principles models. Furthermore, first principles models typically offer predictiveness that is not attained by most other types of individual-models. However, detailed, first-principles cost modeling of nuclear reactors and entire nuclear plants is relatively limited. To address this limitation in the availability of detailed, predictive models based on fundamentals, we recently developed a range of cost models, mostly based on first-principles methodologies, to project full lifecycle costs (LCCs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on multiple parallel SM-HTG-pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and SM-SFRs.

Prosser, Jacob H. [Strategic Analysis, Inc., Arlin↗

Reply to Comments by Tsurutani et al. on "Modeling Extreme 'Carrington-Type' Space Weather Events Using Three-Dimensional Global MHD Simulations"

In this response, we address the three main comments by Tsurutani et al. (2018, http://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024779) namely, unusually high plasma density, interplanetary magnetic field intensity, and fast storm recovery phase. The authors agree that there is room to improve the modeling by taking into account these comments and other aspects that were not fully explored during our initial work. We are already in the process of undertaking a more comprehensive modeling project.

Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.↗

Development of a kinetic model to describe six types of symbiotic interactions in a formate utilizing microalgae-bacteria cultivation system

This study investigated an algae/formate-utilizing-bacteria system that has been developed for carbon capture. This photomixotrophic consortium consumed formate to support bacterial growth so that the resulting respiration CO 2 could be simultaneously used by algae to avoid CO 2 gas-lipid mass transfer limitation. To understand biomass growth and population interactions in this unique system, a kinetic model has been developed to describe algae and bacteria multiplication, formate and nitrogen utilizations, CO 2 mass transfer, O 2 generation and consumption, lighting condition and shading effect. The simulation indicated that this ecosystem could form six types of interactions (mutualism, commensalism, parasitism, neutralism, amensalism, and competition) depending on the light intensity and nutrient availability. Furthermore, the simulation of both batch culture and chemostat, along with parameter sensitivity tests and experimental observations, offered insights into optimal applications of algae-bacteria consortium based photobiorefinery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DEEPEN 3D PFA Index Models for Exploration Datasets at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the development of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology for magmatic plays (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), index models needed to be developed to map values in geoscientific exploration datasets to favorability index values. This GDR submission includes those index models. Index models were created by binning values in exploration datasets into chunks based on their favorability, and then applying a number between 0 and 5 to each chunk, where 0 represents very unfavorable data values and 5 represents very favorable data values. To account for differences in how exploration methods are used to detect each play component, separate index models are produced for each exploration method for each component of each play type. Index models were created using histograms of the distributions of each exploration dataset in combination with literature and input from experts about what combinations of geophysical, geological, and geochemical signatures are considered favorable at Newberry. This is in attempt to create similar sized bins based on the current understanding of how different anomalies map to favorable areas for the different types of geothermal plays (i.e., conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). For example, an area of partial melt would likely appear as an area of low density, high conductivity, low vp, and high vp/vs. This means that these target anomalies would be given high (4 or 5) index values for the purpose of imaging the heat source. To account for differences in how exploration methods are used to detect each play component, separate index models are produced for each exploration method for each component of each play type. Index models were produced for the following datasets: - Geologic model - Alteration model - vp/vs - vp - vs - Temperature model - Seismicity (density*magnitude) - Density - Resistivity - Fault distance - Earthquake cutoff depth model

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

scPlantAnnotate: an accurate and robust transformer-based model for plant cell type annotation

Accurate cell type annotation remains a major bottleneck in plant single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq), where existing tools are often adapted from animal studies and perform sub-optimally on plant data. The lack of plant-specific computational frameworks limits the construction of plant cell atlases and downstream biological discovery. We develop and evaluate scPlantAnnotate, a Transformer-based reference annotation framework tailored for plant scRNA-seq data, and benchmark it against state-of-the-art deep learning and conventional methods across multiple plant species. Species-specific scPlantAnnotate models were trained using curated datasets from Arabidopsis thaliana, Zea mays, Oryza sativa, and Glycine max. We compared scPlantAnnotate with leading baselines under both standard random-split evaluation and a more stringent leave-one-dataset-out setting, which tests robustness to completely unseen datasets and tissue types. scPlantAnnotate consistently outperforms existing approaches across all four species under random-split evaluation. In the leave-one-dataset-out setting for A. thaliana, where performance drops markedly for all methods due to strong batch effects and dataset heterogeneity, scPlantAnnotate nonetheless achieves the highest Accuracy, Macro-F1, Balanced Accuracy, and Macro-AUROC on average and ranks first on most held-out datasets. These results demonstrate improved robustness to dataset shifts, a critical yet underexplored challenge in plant scRNA-seq analysis. A freely accessible web server enables users to annotate their own datasets using pretrained models. scPlantAnnotate provides a plant-specific, Transformer-based framework for single-cell annotation that delivers state-of-the-art performance and enhanced robustness to unseen datasets. By addressing limitations of existing tools and enabling scalable reference-based annotation, scPlantAnnotate supports the development of comprehensive plant cell atlases and facilitates broader use of single-cell genomics in plant biology.

Bioinformatics↗

Double holography in string theory

We develop the notion of double holography in Type IIB string theory realizations of braneworld models. The Type IIB setups are based on the holographic duals of 4d BCFTs comprising 4d N = 4 SYM on a half space coupled to 3d N = 4 SCFTs on the boundary. Based on the concrete BCFTs and their brane construction, we provide microscopic realizations of the intermediate holographic description, obtained by dualizing only the 3d degrees of freedom. Triggered by recent observations in bottom-up models, we discuss the causal structures in the full BCFT duals and intermediate descriptions. This confirms qualitative features found in the bottom-up models but suggests a refinement of their interpretation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

3D Modeling of Solar-Type Stars to Characterize Stellar Jitter

Detection of Earth-mass planets requires measurements of radial velocity with extreme precision. To capture the tiny disturbances caused by a planet's motion, it is necessary to understand and characterize the host star’s turbulent dynamics in order to apply proper filtering to the observational data. We take advantage of current computational and technological capabilities to develop 3D realistic models of the stellar subsurface convection and atmospheres and thereby estimate the photospheric jitter. We have identified an initial set of target stars, obtained initial conditions using the MESA code, and obtained initial 3D radiative models of the stellar surfaces and atmospheres with a spatial resolution of 50km. We present initial 3D radiative hydrodynamic model results of the planet-hosting star HD209458.

SMD↗

Steering of Solar Sails Using Optical Lift Force

Optical wing structures were theoretically and numerically analyzed, and prototype arrays of wings called optical flying carpets were fabricated with solar sail material clear polyimide (CP1). This material was developed at NASA Langley to better withstand damaging ultraviolet radiation found in outer space. Various optical wing sizes and shapes were analyzed to develop design strategies for thrust and torque applications. The developed ray-tracing model has undergone continual advancement, and stands as an effective tool for modeling most types of solar sails. To our understanding, such a model does not exist else where. The distributed forces and torques have been reduced to a simple theoretical whereby the fundamental mechanics may be understood in terms of the numerically determined center of pressure off set from the center of mass. This description applies to any type of solar sail, affording our ray-tracing model a general utility. This research has established a foundation for understanding the force and torque afforded by optical wings. The study began by considering transparent wings and ended by considering wings having a reflecting face. The latter was found to afford the advantages of high thrust and both intrinsic and extrinsic torque. Our discovery of the intrinsic torque on optical wings (meaning that a moment arm is not required) has no analogy for a flat reflective solar sail, and therefore provides an extra degree of control that may be useful for sail craft attitude and navigation purposes.

Swartzlander, Gover↗

Integrated Computational Materials and Mechanical Modeling for Additive Manufacturing of Alloys with Graded Structure Used in Fossil Fuel Power Plants

Wire-arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) has demonstrated its unique capability of producing large-size alloy components with a significantly reduced fabrication time and enhanced geometry design freedom. In this project, the team has developed an ICME (Integrated Computational Materials Engineering) modeling framework, which supports the WAAM of the AUSC (Advanced Ultra-Supercritical) power plant components. The manufacturing design has been applied to Inconel 740H, steel P91, as well as the dissimilar alloy components between steel P91 and Inconel 740H. The ICME model framework is developed by considering two types of modeling. First, mechanistic modeling has been applied to control the printing quality and understand the sequence of the dissimilar printing of the wall structure. The following models have been included in the developed ICME framework: finite element thermal model, grain structure model, residual stress simulation, crystal plasticity model, CALPHAD-based precipitation kinetic model, phase stability prediction, thermal expansion predictive model, and heuristic creep model. Secondary, a physics-based machine learning model has also been developed based on the ICME model structure. The machine learning model development is based on the ICME model prediction with calibration of the experiments. In addition, the WAAM has been utilized as a high-throughput experimental tool rapidly generating a gradient of alloy composition to facilitate experimental database generation for process-structure-property relationships. Such a database directly supported the ICME-enhanced machine learning, which further assisted in intermediate composition block design between P91 and 740H. A high-throughput screening study of the oxidation resistance has been performed based on such high-throughput experimentation. Based on the computational design, several dissimilar alloy manufacturing with post-heat treatment have been performed with a comprehensive evaluation of mechanical performance, including hardness mapping, yield strength, creep resistance. In this project, the single component of P91 and 740H processed by WAAM after heat treatment designed by ICME has demonstrated higher performance in yield strength and creep resistance than the wrought materials. The P91 sample prepared by WAAM with ICME-designed heat treatment performs better than P92 in creep resistance. The designed graded alloy printing with intermediate block shows a promising performance that exceeds the traditional welding. Moreover, the current research indicates the high need for location-specific design analysis with uncertainty quantification, an important topic that deserves more dedicated research. The achievement of this project demonstrated the promising future of WAAM in structural alloy manufacturing for energy power plant development. Successful printing requires synergetic efforts made by manufacturing, mechanical, and materials sciences.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Graph-Based Similarity Metrics for Comparing Simulation Model Causal Structures

The causal structure of a simulation is a major determinant of both its character and behavior, yet most methods we use to compare simulations focus only on simulation outputs. We introduce a method that combines graphical representation with information theoretic metrics to quantitatively compare the causal structures of models. The method applies to agent-based simulations as well as system dynamics models and facilitates comparison within and between types. Comparing models based on their causal structures can illuminate differences in assumptions made by the models, allowing modelers to (1) better situate their models in the context of existing work, including highlighting novelty, (2) explicitly compare conceptual theory and assumptions to simulated theory and assumptions, and (3) investigate potential causal drivers of divergent behavior between models. We demonstrate the method by comparing two epidemiology models at different levels of aggregation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Condensed Antenna Structural Models for Dynamics Analysis

Condensed degree-of-freedom models are compared with large degree-of-freedom finite-element models of a representative antenna-tipping and alidade structure, for both locked and free-rotor configurations. It is shown that: (1) the effective-mass models accurately reproduce the lower-mode natural frequencies of the finite element model; (2) frequency responses for the two types of models are in agreement up to at least 16 rad/s for specific points; and (3) transient responses computed for the same points are in good agreement. It is concluded that the effective-mass model, which best represents the five lower modes of the finite-element model, is a sufficient representation of the structure for future incorporation with a total servo control structure dynamic simulation.

Levy, R.↗

A model for core formation in the early Earth

Two basic types exogenous models were proposed to account for siderophile and chalcophile element abundances in the Earth's upper mantle. The first model requires that the Earth be depleted in volatiles and that, after a core formation event which extracted the most siderophile elements into the core, additional noble siderophile elements (Pt, Ir, Au) were added as a late veneer and mixed into the mantle. The second model postulates a reduced Earth with approximately CI elemental abundances in which a primary core forming event depleted all siderophile elements in the mantle. The plausibility of models which require fine scale mixing of chondritic material into the upper mantle is analyzed. Mixing in liquids is more efficient, but large degrees of silicate partial melting will facilitate the separation of magma from residual solids. Any external events affecting the upper mantle of the Earth should also be evident in the Moon; but siderophile and chalcophile element abundance patterns inferred for the mantles of the Earth and Moon differ. There appear to be significant physical difficulties associated with chondritic veneer models.

Jones, J. H.↗

Regional-scale estimates of surface moisture availability and thermal inertia using remote thermal measurements

A review is presented of numerical models which were developed to interpret thermal IR data and to identify the governing parameters and surface energy fluxes recorded in the images. Analytic, predictive, diagnostic and empirical models are described. The limitations of each type of modeling approach are explored in terms of the error sources and inherent constraints due to theoretical or measurement limitations. Sample results of regional-scale soil moisture or evaporation patterns derived from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission and GOES satellite data through application of the predictive model devised by Carlson (1981) are discussed. The analysis indicates that pattern recognition will probably be highest when data are collected over flat, arid, sparsely vegetated terrain. The soil moisture data then obtained may be accurate to within 10-20 percent.

Carlson, T. N.↗