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At least 379 records · Page 21

A global ensemble of ocean wave climate projections from CMIP5-driven models

This dataset, produced through the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) phase 2, represents the first coordinated multivariate ensemble of 21st Century global wind-wave climate projections available (henceforth COWCLIP2.0). COWCLIP2.0 comprises general and extreme statistics of significant wave height (H S ), mean wave period (T m ), and mean wave direction (θ m ) computed over time-slices 1979–2004 and 2081–2100, at different frequency resolutions (monthly, seasonally and annually). The full ensemble comprising 155 global wave climate simulations is obtained from ten CMIP5-based state-of-the-art wave climate studies and provides data derived from alternative wind-wave downscaling methods, and different climate-model forcing and future emissions scenarios. The data has been produced, and processed, under a specific framework for consistency and quality, and follows CMIP5 Data Reference Syntax, Directory structures, and Metadata requirements. Technical comparison of model skill against 26 years of global satellite measurements of significant wave height has been undertaken at global and regional scales. This new dataset provides support for future broad scale coastal hazard and vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation studies in many offshore and coastal engineering applications.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Avoiding pitfalls in molecular simulation of vapor sorption: Example of propane and isobutane in metal–organic frameworks for adsorption cooling applications

This study introduces recommendations for conducting molecular simulations of vapor adsorption, with an emphasis on enhancing the accuracy, reproducibility, and comparability of results. The first aspect we address is consistency in the implementation of some details of typical molecular models, including tail corrections and cutoff distances, due to their significant influence on generated data. We highlight the importance of explicitly calculating the saturation pressures at relevant temperatures using methods such as Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations and illustrate some pitfalls in extrapolating saturation pressures using this method. For grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulations, the input fugacity is usually calculated using an equation of state, which often requires the critical parameters of the fluid. We show the importance of using critical parameters derived from the simulation with the same model to ensure internal consistency between the simulated explicit adsorbate phase and the implicit bulk phase in GCMC. We show the advantages of presenting isotherms on a relative pressure scale to facilitate easier comparison among models and with experiment. Extending these guidelines to a practical case study, we evaluate the performance of various isoreticular metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in adsorption cooling applications. This includes examining the advantages of using propane and isobutane as working fluids and identifying MOFs with a superior performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

We explore the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in 27 models from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Comparison with RAPID and SAMBA observations suggests that the ensemble mean represents the AMOC strength and vertical profile reasonably well. Linear trends over the entire historical period (1850-2014) are generally neutral, but many models exhibit an AMOC peak around the 1980’s. Ensemble-mean AMOC decline in future (SSP) scenarios is stronger in CMIP6 than CMIP5 models. In fact, AMOC decline in CMIP6 is surprisingly insensitive to the scenario at least up to 2060. We find an emergent relationship among a majority of models between AMOC strength and 21st century AMOC decline. Constraining this relationship with RAPID observations suggests that the AMOC might decline between 6 and 8 Sv (34-45%) by 2100. A smaller group of models projects much less AMOC weakening of only up to 30%.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing the numerical stability of physics models to equilibrium variation through database comparisons on DIII-D

High fidelity kinetic equilibria are crucial for tokamak modeling and analysis. Manual workflows for constructing kinetic equilibria are time consuming and subject to user error, motivating development of automated equilibrium reconstruction tools to provide accurate and consistent reconstructions for downstream physics analysis. These automated tools also provide access to kinetic equilibria at large database scales, which enables the quantification of general uncertainties arising from equilibrium reconstruction techniques. In this paper, we compare a large database of DIII-D kinetic equilibria generated manually by physics experts to equilibria from automated kinetic reconstruction tools, assessing the impact of reconstruction method on equilibrium parameters and resulting magnetohydrodynamic stability calculations. We find agreement among scalar parameters, whereas profile quantities, such as the bootstrap current, show larger disagreements. We analyze ideal kink and classical tearing stability with DCON and STRIDE respectively, finding that the kink stability calculation is generally more robust than the tearing index Δ' calculation. We find that in 90% of cases, both kink stability classifications are unchanged between the manual expert and automated kinetic equilibria.

CAKE↗

Understanding cloud droplet spectral dispersion effect using empirical and semi-analytical parameterizations in NCAR CAM5.3

Five parameterizations of cloud droplet spectral shape are implemented in a global climate model to investigate the dispersion effect and aerosol indirect effect (AIE). We design a series of experiments by modifying the microphysical cloud scheme of NCAR CAM5.3 (Community Atmospheric Model Version 5.3). We employ four empirical (Martin94, RLiu03, PengL03, Liu08) and one semi-analytical (LiuLi15) expressions for cloud droplet spectral shape parameters. Analysis focuses on the instantaneous differences in the simulated cloud microphysical properties and the comparison between model output and satellite data. The results show that RLiu03, PengL03 and LiuLi15 produce wider droplet spectrum and faster autoconversion rate, but Liu08 has a narrower droplet spectrum and slower autoconversion rate than the default parameterization (Martin94) in CAM5.3. Global dispersion effects caused by the five parameterizations modify the aerosol indirect effect by -10% (counteract) to 13% (strengthen). The simulated AIEs and dispersion effects exhibit noticeably spatial inhomogeneity. In the sensitive regions of AIE (Southeast Asia, North Pacific and west coast of South America), we decompose the response of shortwave cloud forcing to the change in droplet number for analysis. The varying dispersion effects can be explained by different responses of cloud properties in different spectral parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental and modeling investigation of binary liquid mixtures

Binary mixtures of liquids may be encountered in industrial or remote sensing scenarios and present challenges to positive identification compared to neat single-component liquids. Our investigation examines whether one can predict the optical properties of the mixture, i.e. its complex index of refraction, by assuming a linear superposition of the real and imaginary components of the index of refraction in proportion to the ratio of each constituent. To investigate this hypothesis various liquid mixtures were created using mass ratios. The mixtures were then characterized as to their complex index of refraction and used in numerical modeling calculations of thin liquid mixture films on surfaces and compared with composed mixtures using linear n and k synthetic mixtures where the n and k components of the complex index of refraction were combined in similar ratios. The comparison of modeling and experimental results is presented with recommendations for further investigation.

infrared (IR) spectroscopy, Liquid mixtures, compl↗

Comparing modelling approaches for a generic nuclear waste repository in salt

This paper contains a comparison of five modelling approaches for a simplified nuclear waste repository in a domal salt formation. It is the result of a four-year collaboration between five international teams on Task F of the DECOVALEX-2023 project on performance assessment modelling. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. This work demonstrates how these objectives are accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions, ranging from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation and repository. Despite differences in the modelling strategies, all models indicate that salt compaction and diffusion of radionuclides in brine are key processes in the repository. For the isothermal spent nuclear fuel and vitrified waste scenario with multiple early failures considered, all models indicate little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000-year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the conceptual model.

DECOVALEX↗

304L Can Crush Validation Studies

Accurate prediction of ductile behavior of structural alloys up to and including failure is essential in component or system failure assessment, which is necessary for nuclear weapons alteration and life extensions programs of Sandia National Laboratories. Modeling such behavior requires computational capabilities to robustly capture strong nonlinearities (geometric and material), rate- dependent and temperature-dependent properties, and ductile failure mechanisms. This study's objective is to validate numerical simulations of a high-deformation crush of a stainless steel can. The process consists of identifying a suitable can geometry and loading conditions, conducting the laboratory testing, developing a high-quality Sierra/SM simulation, and then drawing comparisons between model and measurement to assess the fitness of the simulation in regards to material model (plasticity), finite element model construction, and failure model. Following previous material model calibration, a J 2 plasticity model with a microstructural BCJ failure model is employed to model the test specimen made of 304L stainless steel. Simulated results are verified and validated through mesh and mass-scaling convergence studies, parameter sensitivity studies, and a comparison to experimental data. The converged mesh and degree of mass-scaling are the mesh discretization with 140,372 elements, and a mass scaling with a target time increment of 1.0e-6 seconds and time step scale factor of 0.5, respectively. Results from the coupled thermal-mechanical explicit dynamic analysis are comparable to the experimental data. Simulated global force vs displacement (F/D) response predicts key points such as yield, ultimate, and kinks of the experimental F/D response. Furthermore, the final deformed shape of the can and field data predicted from the analysis are similar to that of the deformed can, as measured by 3D optical CMM scans and DIC data from the experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hybrid Heat Pump Controls: Conventional Dual Fuel versus Seamlessly Fuel Flexible Heat Pump

This paper compares the performance of a novel seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP) and conventional dual fuel heat pump (DFHP) for space heating. The conventional dual fuel systems either run on the gas furnace or electric heat pump at any given moment, as a comparison, the proposed seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump simultaneously consumes gas and electricity by continuously optimizing the proportion of each. The process air flows across the heat pump condenser first and then flows across the furnace coil, therefore, the heat pump temperature lift is reduced. SFFHP delivers energy savings by allowing each subsystem, i.e., gas furnace and electric heat pump, to operate where it performs best.For DFHP, two operation control strategies, i.e., non-restricted control and restricted control, are available on market. For the non-restricted mode, the thermostat has a switching temperature-programmed according to the balancing point of heating load and capacity curve. Heat pump operates above the switching temperature, while the furnace takes over under the switching temperature. For the restricted control, the compressor of a heat pump is disabled below a predefined lockout outdoor temperature to let the furnace take over. For SFFHP, a model predictive control strategy is developed to continuously adjust the capacities of the electric heat pump and gas furnace based on the foreseen weather data, utility price signals, and marginal grid emission signals with the goal of minimizing the utility cost and CO2 emission while guaranteeing comfort requirements.In this paper, DFHP and SFFHP are simulated using high-fidelity heat pump performance curves generated from DOE/ORNL heat pump design model. Performance comparison of DFHP and SFFHP during 2019-2020 heating season in Los Angeles shows that SFFHP with model predictive control achieves 23% utility cost reduction and 17 % CO2 emission reduction. Case studies demonstrate that SFFHP can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO2 emission. As a result, SFFHP can deliver superior benefits for utility cost reduction and CO2 emission reduction over conventional dual fuel heat pump.

Li, Zhenning↗

A multi-algorithm approach for modeling coastal wetland eco-geomorphology

Coastal wetlands play an important role in the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Climate change makes it more difficult for these ecosystems to adapt to the fluctuation in sea levels and other environmental changes. Given the importance of eco-geomorphological processes for coastal wetland resilience, many eco-geomorphology models differing in complexity and numerical schemes have been developed in recent decades. However, their divergent estimates of the response of coastal wetlands to climate change indicate that substantial structural uncertainties exist in these models. To investigate the structural uncertainty of coastal wetland eco-geomorphology models, we developed a multi-algorithm model framework of eco-geomorphological processes, such as mineral accretion and organic matter accretion, within a single hydrodynamics model. The framework is designed to explore possible ways to represent coastal wetland eco-geomorphology in Earth system models and reduce the related uncertainties in global applications. We tested this model framework at three representative coastal wetland sites: two saltmarsh wetlands (Venice Lagoon and Plum Island Estuary) and a mangrove wetland (Hunter Estuary). Through the model–data comparison, we showed the importance of using a multi-algorithm ensemble approach for more robust predictions of the evolution of coastal wetlands. We also found that more observations of mineral and organic matter accretion at different elevations of coastal wetlands and evaluation of the coastal wetland models at different sites in diverse environments can help reduce the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Measurement of Triple-Differential Inclusive Muon Neutrino Charged-Current Cross Sections on Argon with the MicroBooNE Detector

We report the first measurement of the differential cross section $d^2σ(E_ν)/dcos(θ_µ)dP_µ$for inclusive muon neutrino charged-current scattering on argon. This measurement utilizes data from6.5×10 20 protons on target of exposure collected using the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber located on-axis in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam with a mean neutrino energy of approximately 0.8 GeV. In this note, the mapping from reconstructed kinematics to truth quantities, particularly from reconstructed to true neutrino energy, is validated by comparing the distribution of reconstructed hadronic energy in data to that of the model prediction in different muon scattering angle bins after conditional constraint from the muon momentum distribution in data. The success of this validation gives confidence that the missing energy in the MicroBooNE detector is well-modeled within its uncertainties in simulation, enabling the unfolding to an energy-dependent triple-differential measurement over muon momentum, muon scattering angle, and neutrino energy. The unfolded measurement covers an extensive phase space, providing a wealth of information useful for future LArTPC experiments measuring neutrino oscillations. Comparisons with model predictions show the best agreement with Neut 5.4.0.1 at low energy, and with NuWro 19.02.01 at higher energies, particularly at forward muon scattering angles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The effect of geographic sampling on evaluation of extreme precipitation in high-resolution climate models

Traditional approaches for comparing global climate models and observational data products typically fail to account for the geographic location of the underlying weather station data. For modern global high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers, this is an oversight since there are likely grid cells where the physical output of a climate model is compared with a statistically interpolated quantity instead of actual measurements of the climate system. In this paper, we quantify the impact of geographic sampling on the relative performance of high-resolution climate model representations of precipitation extremes in boreal winter (December–January–February) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), comparing model output from five early submissions to the HighResMIP subproject of the CMIP6 experiment. We find that properly accounting for the geographic sampling of weather stations can significantly change the assessment of model performance. Across the models considered, failing to account for sampling impacts the different metrics (extreme bias, spatial pattern correlation, and spatial variability) in different ways (both increasing and decreasing). We argue that the geographic sampling of weather stations should be accounted for in order to yield a more straightforward and appropriate comparison between models and observational data sets, particularly for high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers. While we focus on the CONUS in this paper, our results have important implications for other global land regions where the sampling problem is more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling framework for evaluating the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on hydrologic exchange fluxes and residence time for a large-scale river section over a long-term period

Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEF) at the river and subsurface interface and their residence times (RT) in subsurface are important for managing the water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridor systems. In this study, a modeling framework is developed for coupling the three-dimensional (3D) multi-phase surface, subsurface flow transport, and numerical tracer model for RT in a large-scale river section over a long period. The framework is utilized to evaluate the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on HEFs and RT for a 30 km section of the Columbia River in Washington State over a three-year period. Based on comparisons between model simulations with and without considering hydrodynamic pressure, we found that hydrodynamic pressure increases the net HEFs by 7% with river gaining water from the subsurface domain, and leads to slight reduction of RT.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Radiolysis and Chemical Reactions during Dry Storage of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel

After aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) is removed from the reactor, it is initially stored in spent fuel pools, which are specially designed water-filled basins that provide temporary cooling to reduce the temperature of the fuel assemblies and provide radiation shielding. ASNF continues to generate heat due to the radioactive decay of elements within the fuel, which persists for many years post-shutdown as the residual radioactive products decay into more stable elements. During the wet storage period, an oxyhydroxide layer composed of boehmite/bayerite forms on the surfaces of the aluminum cladding from exposure to water in the pools. Road-ready packaging for long-term disposition of the ASNF involves dry storage in helium backfilled DOE standard canisters (DSCs). When the ASNF is removed from water storage and dried, most of the water is removed, but some physisorbed and chemisorbed water remains in the oxyhydroxide layers. This residual water can produce hydrogen when exposed to radiation from the ASNF during dry storage. Predicting hydrogen accumulation over time in the DSCs is critical for long-term storage considerations. Previous modeling efforts have developed coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-chemical models to simulate temperature, pressure, and gas phase concentrations within the DSCs. These models use the thermal field predicted by CFD as input to a radiolysis model for the gas phase and the surface oxyhydroxide layer chemistry. Given the long storage period of the DSCs and the impracticality of long-term experiments, a simulation-based approach is necessary to assess chemical evolution within the canisters. This study advances the development of a modeling framework designed to simulate the chemical evolution of spent fuel canisters. Both thermal and radiation-driven reactions are considered, with radiation kinetics quantified using G-values. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters influencing species composition. Reaction pathway diagrams offer insight into dominant species formation routes, enabling more effective comparisons between model predictions and experimental observations, particularly regarding the production of hydrogen. Results show that the model predicts significant hydrogen gas production with minimal oxygen generation, primarily due to hydrogen formation via boehmite pathways. These findings underscore the importance of accurately characterizing surface-bound species and radiolysis kinetics. A deeper understanding of these mechanisms is critical for evaluating the long-term safety of nuclear waste storage.

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗

The ModelSEED Biochemistry Database for the integration of metabolic annotations and the reconstruction, comparison and analysis of metabolic models for plants, fungi and microbes

Abstract For over 10 years, ModelSEED has been a primary resource for the construction of draft genome-scale metabolic models based on annotated microbial or plant genomes. Now being released, the biochemistry database serves as the foundation of biochemical data underlying ModelSEED and KBase. The biochemistry database embodies several properties that, taken together, distinguish it from other published biochemistry resources by: (i) including compartmentalization, transport reactions, charged molecules and proton balancing on reactions; (ii) being extensible by the user community, with all data stored in GitHub; and (iii) design as a biochemical ‘Rosetta Stone’ to facilitate comparison and integration of annotations from many different tools and databases. The database was constructed by combining chemical data from many resources, applying standard transformations, identifying redundancies and computing thermodynamic properties. The ModelSEED biochemistry is continually tested using flux balance analysis to ensure the biochemical network is modeling-ready and capable of simulating diverse phenotypes. Ontologies can be designed to aid in comparing and reconciling metabolic reconstructions that differ in how they represent various metabolic pathways. ModelSEED now includes 33,978 compounds and 36,645 reactions, available as a set of extensible files on GitHub, and available to search at https://modelseed.org and KBase.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Challenges of standard halo models in constraining galaxy properties from cosmic infrared background anisotropies

The halo model, combined with halo occupation distribution (HOD) prescriptions, is widely used to interpret cosmic infrared background (CIB) anisotropies and extract physical information about star-forming galaxies and their connection to large-scale structures. Recent CIB-specific implementations of the halo model have adopted more physical parameterizations. However, the extent to which these models can reliably recover meaningful physical parameters remains uncertain. We assessed whether the current parameterization of CIB halo models is sufficient to recover astrophysical quantities, such as star formation efficiency, η(M h , z), and halo mass at which the peak of star formation efficiency occurs, M max , when fit to mock data. We also assessed whether discrepancies arise from assumptions about galaxy emission (the HOD ingredients) or from more fundamental components in the halo model, such as bias and matter clustering. We fit the M21 CIB HOD model, implemented within the halo model framework, to mock CIB power spectra and star formation rate density (SFRD) data generated from the SIDES-Uchuu simulation, and compared the best-fit parameters to the known simulation inputs. We then repeated the analysis using a simplified version of the simulation (SSU), explicitly designed to match the HOD assumptions. A detailed comparison of model and simulation outputs was carried out to trace the origin of observed discrepancies. While the M21 HOD model provides a good fit to the mock data, it failed to recover the intrinsic parameters accurately, particularly the halo mass at which star formation efficiency peaks. This mismatch persists even when fitting data generated with the same model assumptions. We find strong agreement (within 5%) in the emission-related components (SFRD, emissivity), but observe a scale- and redshift-dependent offset exceeding 20% in the two-halo term of the CIB power spectrum. This likely arises from limitations in the treatment of halo bias and matter clustering within the linear approximation. Additionally, incorporating scatter in the SFR–halo mass relation and the spectral energy distribution (SED) templates significantly affects the shot noise (∼50%), but has only a modest impact (less than 10%) on the clustered component. These results suggest that recovering physical parameters from CIB clustering requires improvements to the cosmological ingredients of the halo model framework, such as adopting scale-dependent halo bias and nonlinear matter power spectra in addition to careful modeling of emission physics.

cosmic background radiation↗

Simultaneous stabilization and control of the n = 1 and n = 2 resistive wall mode

Abstract DIII-D experiments demonstrate simultaneous stability measurements and control of resistive wall modes (RWMs) with toroidal mode numbers n = 1 and n = 2. RWMs with n > 1 are sometimes observed on DIII-D following the successful feedback stabilization of the n = 1 mode, motivating the development of multi- n control. A new model-based multi-mode feedback algorithm based on the VALEN physics code has been implemented on the DIII-D tokamak using a real-time GPU installed directly into the DIII-D plasma control system. In addition to stabilizing RWMs, the feedback seeks to control the stable plasma error field response, enabling compensation of the typically unaddressed DIII-D n = 2 error field component. Experiments recently demonstrated this algorithm’s ability to simultaneously control n = 1 and n = 2 perturbed fields for the first time in a tokamak, using reactor relevant external coils. Control was maintained for hundreds of wall-times above the n = 1 no-wall pressure limit and approaching the n = 1 and n = 2 ideal-wall limits. Furthermore, a rotating non-zero target was set for the feedback, allowing stability to be assessed by monitoring the rotating plasma response (PR) while maintaining control. This novel technique can be viewed as a closed-loop extension of active MHD spectroscopy, which has been used to validate stability models through comparisons of the PR to applied, open-loop perturbations. The closed-loop response measurements are consistent with open-loop MHD spectroscopy data over a wide range of β N approaching the n = 1 ideal-wall limit. These PR measurements were then fit to produce both VALEN and single-mode stability models. These models allowed for important plasma stability information to be determined and have been shown to agree with experimentally observed RWM growth rates.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗