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DOE OSTI2023

coloring v.1.0

SAND2024-02435O The software coloring allows applications written in the C++ language to generate publication-quality 2D plots. Its functionality is similar to Microsoft Excel's chart functionality or the Python language's matplotlib package. The value of coloring is that it is written purely in C++ and thus can be compiled on systems where Python is not available and linked into high performance computing software. For drawing shapes onto an image, coloring uses the mathematical definition of quadratic Bezier splines and uses Newton's method to search for the closest point on a spline to a given query point. This is then used to do accurate sub-pixel sampling to get clean, non-pixelated images. For working with the actual plot data, coloring has basic statistical methods such as finding maxima and minima as well as axis scaling such as logarithms. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Ibanez, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS1981

Estimation of trends

The application of statistical methods to recorded ozone measurements. The effects of a long term depletion of ozone at magnitudes predicted by the NAS is harmful to most forms of life. Empirical prewhitening filters the derivation of which is independent of the underlying physical mechanisms were analyzed. Statistical analysis performs a checks and balances effort. Time series filters variations into systematic and random parts, errors are uncorrelated, and significant phase lag dependencies are identified. The use of time series modeling to enhance the capability of detecting trends is discussed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1982

On the detection of other planetary systems by astrometric techniques

A quantitative method for astrometrically detecting perturbations induced in a star's motion by the presence of a planetary object is described. A periodogram is defined, wherein signals observed from a star show exactly periodic variations, which can be extracted from observational data using purely statistical methods. A detection threshold is defined for the frequency of occurrence of some detectable signal, e.g., the Nyquist frequency. Possible effects of a stellar orbital eccentricity and multiple companions are discussed, noting that assumption of a circular orbit assures the spectral purity of the signal described. The periodogram technique was applied to 12 yr of astrometric data from the U.S. Naval Observatory for three stars with low mass stellar companions. Periodic perturbations were confirmed. A comparison of the accuracy of different astrometric systems shows that the detection accuracy of a system is determined by the measurement accuracy and the number of observations, although the detection efficiency can be maximized by minimizing the number of data points for the case when observational errors are proportional to the square root of the number of data points. It is suggested that a space-based astrometric telescope is best suited to take advantage of the method.

Black, D. C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emerging anomaly detection techniques for electronic health records: A survey

Background Anomaly detection in electronic health records (EHRs) is a cornerstone of biomedical informatics, with direct implications for patient safety, clinical decision-making, and the prevention of healthcare fraud. Once guided primarily by simple rule-based methods, the field has advanced rapidly, driven by increased computing power, richer and more detailed health data, and the rise of machine learning and deep learning techniques. The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of modern approaches to detecting anomalies in EHRs, outlining their strengths, limitations, and relevance to key healthcare challenges. We review traditional statistical methods alongside newer ML- and DL-based strategies and hybrid models, with particular attention to how these techniques support transparency and build clinical trust. Methods This paper presents a thorough and critical survey through systematic review (PRISMA-based) of the latest anomaly detection strategies in time-sequence data domains within electronic health record systems. Results We explore a broad spectrum of methodologies, including statistical models, supervised and unsupervised learning approaches, hybrid frameworks, and state-of-the-art ML-based techniques that collectively advance the precision and scalability of detecting anomalies in complex clinical datasets. In addition to mapping current capabilities, we address the enduring challenges that hinder widespread implementation and provide a forward-looking perspective on the future of anomaly detection in the data-rich landscape of modern healthcare. Summary The advancement in AI-based approaches is reported along with the basic principles of the individual approaches and their applicability. The increased availability of high-quality data, advancements in DL approaches, and enhanced computation power are leading to more frequent adaptation of DL-based approaches. Emerging DL-based approaches that have been adapted in other domains or recently applied in the EHR domain are also discussed in detail. Although DL-based approaches can improve model predictions by incorporating comorbidities, their application is limited in low-frequency data domains (e.g., when the total available data remains in the single digits). Therefore, the user must carefully consider the application based on data availability.

Anomaly detection↗

DOE OSTI2012

TURBULENT CHARACTERISTICS IN THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF A SOLAR QUIESCENT PROMINENCE OBSERVED BY THE HINODE SOLAR OPTICAL TELESCOPE

We focus on Hinode Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) calcium II H-line observations of a solar quiescent prominence (QP) that exhibits highly variable dynamics suggestive of turbulence. These images capture a sufficient range of scales spatially ({approx}0.1-100 arcsec) and temporally ({approx}16.8 s-4.5 hr) to allow the application of statistical methods used to quantify finite range fluid turbulence. We present the first such application of these techniques to the spatial intensity field of a long-lived solar prominence. Fully evolved inertial range turbulence in an infinite medium exhibits multifractal scale invariance in the statistics of its fluctuations, seen as power-law power spectra and as scaling of the higher order moments (structure functions) of fluctuations which have non-Gaussian statistics; fluctuations {delta}I(r, L) = I(r + L) - I(r) on length scale L along a given direction in observed spatial field I have moments that scale as ({delta}I(r, L){sup p}) {approx} L{sup {zeta}(p)}. For turbulence in a system that is of finite size, or that is not fully developed, one anticipates a generalized scale invariance or extended self-similarity (ESS) ({delta}I(r, L){sup p}) {approx} G(L){sup {zeta}(p)}. For these QP intensity measurements we find scaling in the power spectra and ESS. We find that the fluctuation statistics are non-Gaussian and we use ESS to obtain ratios of the scaling exponents {zeta}(p): these are consistent with a multifractal field and show distinct values for directions longitudinal and transverse to the bulk (driving) flow. Thus, the intensity fluctuations of the QP exhibit statistical properties consistent with an underlying turbulent flow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

NASA Discipline Number 52-40↗

DOE OSTI2015

Applying compressive sensing to TEM video: A substantial frame rate increase on any camera

One of the main limitations of imaging at high spatial and temporal resolution during in-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) experiments is the frame rate of the camera being used to image the dynamic process. While the recent development of direct detectors has provided the hardware to achieve frame rates approaching 0.1 ms, the cameras are expensive and must replace existing detectors. In this paper, we examine the use of coded aperture compressive sensing (CS) methods to increase the frame rate of any camera with simple, low-cost hardware modifications. The coded aperture approach allows multiple sub-frames to be coded and integrated into a single camera frame during the acquisition process, and then extracted upon readout using statistical CS inversion. Here we describe the background of CS and statistical methods in depth and simulate the frame rates and efficiencies for in-situ TEM experiments. Depending on the resolution and signal/noise of the image, it should be possible to increase the speed of any camera by more than an order of magnitude using this approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1982

Contingency in visual scanning of cockpit traffic displays

A statistical method to identify reliable, repetitive scanning patterns in the positions of visual fixations has been developed and applied to data from 8 airline pilots who monitored cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI). Their fixational transition patterns between points of interest on the display showed deterministic, statistical dependencies generally associated with symbols predicting future aircraft position. These dependencies constitute deviations from stratified random sampling of the visual information on the display, confirm the importance of future aircraft position information for the use of CDTI, and provide objective support for the existence of 'scanpaths' in visual fixation patterns.

Ellis, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Characteristics of fragments

Methods used to estimate initial fragment velocities from various types of accidental explosions, geometry of vessel, or explosion source are reported. In addition, fragmentation ranges and impact conditions, using initial velocities as inputs, are discussed. Several classes of accidental explosions and fragment mass distribution predicted by statistical methods are included. Computer program techniques are summarized.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2019

Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes in a Contemporary Cohort of Women with Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS)

Background: Growing evidence suggests that the tumor immune microenvironment influences breast cancer development and prognosis. Density of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) within invasive breast cancer is correlated with response to therapy, especially in triple-negative disease. The clinical relevance and outcomes of TILs within ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) are less understood. Methods: Our institutional database of 668 patients with pure DCIS from 2010 to 2018 was queried. TILs were evaluated by International TILs Working Group guidelines. Percentage of TILs was assessed from the densest focus (hotspot) in one high-power field of stroma touching the basement membrane. Statistical methods included cluster analyses (to define sparse versus dense TILs), logistic, and Cox regression models. Results: Sixty-nine patients with DCIS and TILs were evaluated, of whom 54 (78%) were treated by breast-conserving surgery. Thirteen (19%) patients had ipsilateral recurrence. Each recurrence (n = 13) was matched to four controls (n = 56) based on date of surgery. Median follow-up was 6.7 years. TILs were defined as sparse (< 45%) or dense (≥ 45%). Dense TILs were associated with younger age (p = 0.045), larger tumor size (p < 0.001), high nuclear grade (p = 0.010), comedo histology (p = 0.033), necrosis (p = 0.027), estrogen receptor (ER) negativity (p = 0.037), and ipsilateral recurrence (p = 0.001). Nine patients with dense TILs had mean time to recurrence of 73.5 months compared with four patients with sparse TILs with mean time to recurrence of 97.9 months (p = 0.003). Conclusions: Dense TILs were significantly associated with age, tumor size, nuclear grade, comedo histology, necrosis, and ER status and was a significant predictor of recurrence in patients with pure DCIS.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Continuous Habitable Zones: Pairing a GCM and Bayesian Framework to Predict Habitable Zone Evolution

In the near-future, new space telescopes like JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx will begin attempting to explore the properties of atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. This will require a significant amount of time and resources for even a single planet, which makes it essential to prioritize observations by those most-likely to have detectable life. Here we present a statistical method to estimate the probabilities that specific exoplanets have been continuously in the habitable zone of their host stars for more than 2 billion years, the approximate time it took life on Earth to significantly increase the oxygen content of the atmosphere. We introduce the use of statistics of an ensemble of 3D planetary general circulation models to estimate these probabilities, replacing prior 1D model estimates.

habitable planets↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pairing a GCM and Bayesian Framework to Predict Habitable Zone Evolution

habitable planets↗

DOE OSTI2016

High-Resolution, Non-Invasive Imaging of Upper Vocal Tract Articulators Compatible with Human Brain Recordings

A complete neurobiological understanding of speech motor control requires determination of the relationship between simultaneously recorded neural activity and the kinematics of the lips, jaw, tongue, and larynx. Many speech articulators are internal to the vocal tract, and therefore simultaneously tracking the kinematics of all articulators is nontrivial-especially in the context of human electrophysiology recordings. Here, we describe a noninvasive, multi-modal imaging system to monitor vocal tract kinematics, demonstrate this system in six speakers during production of nine American English vowels, and provide new analysis of such data. Classification and regression analysis revealed considerable variability in the articulator-to-acoustic relationship across speakers. Non-negative matrix factorization extracted basis sets capturing vocal tract shapes allowing for higher vowel classification accuracy than traditional methods. Statistical speech synthesis generated speech from vocal tract measurements, and we demonstrate perceptual identification. We demonstrate the capacity to predict lip kinematics from ventral sensorimotor cortical activity. These results demonstrate a multi-modal system to non-invasively monitor articulator kinematics during speech production, describe novel analytic methods for relating kinematic data to speech acoustics, and provide the first decoding of speech kinematics from electrocorticography. These advances will be critical for understanding the cortical basis of speech production and the creation of vocal prosthetics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

Event-scale relationships between surface velocity, temperature and chlorophyll in the coastal ocean, as seen by satellite

The overall goal of this project was to increase our understanding of processes which determine the temporally varying distributions of surface chlorophyll pigment concentration and surface temperature in the California Current System (CCS) on the time-scale of 'events', i.e., several days to several weeks. We also proposed to investigate seasonal and regional differences in these events. Additionally, we proposed to evaluate methods of estimating surface velocities and horizontal transport of pigment and heat from sequences of AVHRR and CZCS images. The four specific objectives stated in the original proposal were to: (1) test surface current estimates made from sequences of both SST and color images using variations of the statistical method of Emery et al. (1986) and estimate the uncertainties in these satellite-derived surface currents; (2) characterize the spatial and temporal relationships of chlorophyll and temperature in rapidly evolving features for which adequate imagery exist and evaluate the contribution of these events to monthly and seasonal averages; (3) use the methods tested in (1) to determine the nature of the velocity fields in the CCS; and (4) compare the currents, temperature, and currents in different seasons and in different geographic regions.

Strub, P. Ted↗

NASA NTRS1966

On a logical basis for division of responsibilities in statistical practice

The purpose of this paper is to explain principles for division of responsibilities between the statistician and the people that he works with, and reasons why this division of responsibilities is important -- that is, how it improves the performance of both statistician and expert in subject-matter. The aim is to find and illustrate principles of practice by which statisticians may make effective use of their knowledge of theory. The specialist in statistical methods may find himself applying the same basic theory in a dozen different fields in a week, rotating through the same projects the next week. Or, he may work day after day primarily in a single substantive field. Either way, he requires rules of practice. A statement of statistical reliability should present any information that might help the reader to form his own opinion concerning the validity of conclusions likely to be drawn from the results. The aim of a statistical report is to protect the client from seeing merely what he would like to see; to protect him from losses that could come from misuse of results. A further aim is to forestall unwarranted claims of accuracy that the client's public might otherwise accept.

Deming, W. Edwards↗

DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-207B-12: Quantification of Clinical Feedback On Image Quality Differences Between Two CT Scanner Models

Purpose: This work sought to quantify a radiology team’s assessment of image quality differences between two CT scanner models currently in clinical use, with emphasis on noise and low-contrast detectability (LCD). Methods: A water phantom and a Kagaku anthropomorphic body phantom were scanned on GE Discovery CT750 HD and LightSpeed VCT scanners (4 each) with identical scan parameters and reconstructed to 2.5mm/5.0mm thicknesses. Images of water phantom were analyzed at the scanner console with a built-in LCD tool that uses statistical methods to compute requisite CT-number contrast for 95% confidence in detection of a user-defined object size. LCD value was computed for 5mm, 3mm, and 1mm objects. Analysis of standard deviation and LCD values were performed on Kagaku phantom images within liver, stomach, and spleen. LCD value was computed for 4mm, 3mm, and 1mm objects using a benchmarked MATLAB implementation of the GE scanner-console tool. Results: Water LCD values were larger (poorer performance) for all HD scanners compared to VCT scanners. Mean scanner model difference in requisite CT-number contrast for 5mm, 3mm, and 1mm objects for 5.0mm/2.5mm images was 3.0%/3.4% (p=0.02/p=0.10), 5.3%/5.7% (0.00002/0.02), and 8.5%/8.2% (0.0004/0.002), respectively. Mean standard deviations within Kagaku phantom ROIs were greater in HD compared to VCT images, with mean differences for the liver, stomach, and spleen for 5.0mm/2.5mm of 16%/12% (p=0.04/0.10), 8%/12% (0.15/0.11), and 16%/15% (0.05/0.11), respectively. Mean LCD value difference between HD and VCT scanners over all ROIs for 4mm, 3m, and 1mm objects and 5.0mm/2.5mm was 34%/9%, 16%/8%, and 18%/10%, respectively. HD scanners outperformed VCT scanners only for the 4mm stomach object. Conclusion: Using both water and anthropomorphic phantoms, it was shown that HD scanners are outperformed by VCT scanners with respect to noise and LCD in a consistent and in most cases statistically significant manner. The relationship between statistical and clinical significance demands further work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Model Independent Approach to the Single Photoelectron Calibration of Photomultiplier Tubes

The accurate calibration of photomultiplier tubes is critical in a wide variety of applications for which it is necessary to know the absolute number of detected photons or precisely determine the resolution of the signal. Conventional calibration methods rely on fitting the photomultiplier response to a low intensity light source with analytical approximations to the single photoelectron distribution. We show that this approach often leads to biased estimates due to an inability to model the full distribution accurately, especially at low charge values. We present a simple statistical method to extract the relevant single photoelectron calibration parameters (first two central moments) without making any assumptions about the underlying single photoelectron distribution. We illustrate the use of this method through the calibration of a Hamamatsu R11410 photomultiplier tube and study the accuracy and precision of the method using Monte Carlo simulations. The method is found to have significantly reduced bias compared to conventional methods and works under a wide range of light intensities, making it suitable for the simultaneous calibration of large arrays of photomultiplier tubes where uniform illumination may not be possible.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of AVHRR, CZCS and historical in situ data off the Oregon Coast

The original scientific objectives of this grant were to: (1) characterize the seasonal cycles and interannual variability for phytoplankton concentrations and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current using satellite data; and (2) to explore the spatial and temporal relationship between these variables and surface wind forcing. An additional methodological objective was to develop statistical methods for forming mean fields, which minimize the effects of random data gaps and errors in the irregularly sampled CZCS (Coastal Zone Color Scanner) and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) satellite data. A final task was to evaluate the level of uncertainty in the wind fields used for the statistical analysis. Funding in the first year included part of the cost of an image processing system to enable this and other projects to process and analyze satellite data. This report consists of summaries of the major projects carried out with all or partial support from this grant. The appendices include a list of papers and professional presentations supported by the grant, as well as reprints of the major papers and reports.

Strub, P. Ted↗