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At least 379 records · Page 21

Numerical Mean Element Orbital Analysis with Morbiter

The Morbiter software numerically averages an osculating orbit s equations of motion (EOM) to arrive at the mean orbit s EOMs, which are then numerically propagated to obtain the long-term orbital ephemerides. The long-term evolution characteristics, and stability, of an orbit are best characterized using a mean element propagation of the perturbed, two-body variational equations of motion. The average process eliminates short period terms, leaving only secular and long period effects. Doing this avoids the Fourier series expansions and truncations required by the traditional analytic methods.

Ely, Todd A.↗

Assessment of the Jason-2 Extension to the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-l Sea-Surface Height Time Series for Global Mean Sea Level Monitoring

The Jason-2 (OSTM) follow-on mission to Jason-I provides for the continuation of global and regional mean sea level estimates along the ground-track of the initial phase of the TOPEX/Poseidon mission. During the first several months, Jason-I and Jason-2 flew in formation separated by only 55 seconds, enabling the isolation of intermission instrument biases through direct collinear differencing of near simultaneous observations. The Jason-2 Ku-band range bias with respect to Jason-I is estimated to be -84 +/- 9 mm, based on the orbit altitudes provided on the Geophysical Data Records. Modest improved agreement is achieved with the GSFC replacement orbits, which further enables the isolation of subtle 1 cm) instrument-dependent range correction biases. Inter-mission bias estimates are confirmed with an independent assessment from comparisons to a 64-station tide-gauge network, also providing an estimate of the stability of the 17-year time series to be less than 0.1 mm/yr +/- 0.4 mm/yr. The global mean sea level derived from the multi-mission altimeter sea-surface height record from January 1993 through September 2009 is 3.3 +/- 0.4 mm/yr. Recent trends over the period from 2004 through 2008 are smaller and estimated to be 2.0 +/- 0.4 mm/yr.

Beckley, B. D.↗

The Effect of Geocenter Motion on Jason-2 and Jason-1 Orbits and the Mean Sea Level

We have investigated the impact of geocenter motion on Jason-2 orbits. This was accomplished by computing a series of Jason-1, Jason-2 GPS-based and SLR/DORIS-based orbits using ITRF2008 and the IGS repro1 framework based on the most recent GSFC standards. From these orbits, we extract the Jason-2 orbit frame translational parameters per cycle by the means of a Helmert transformation between a set of reference orbits and a set of test orbits. The fitted annual and seasonal terms of these time-series are compared to two different geocenter motion models. Subsequently, we included the geocenter motion corrections in the POD process as a degree-1 loading displacement correction to the tracking network. The analysis suggested that the GSFC's Jason-2 std0905 GPS-based orbits are closely tied to the center of mass (CM) of the Earth whereas the SLR/DORIS std0905 orbits are tied to the center of figure (CF) of the ITRF2005 (Melachroinos et al., 2012). In this study we extend the investigation to the centering of the GPS constellation and the way those are tied in the Jason-1 and Jason-2 POD process. With a new set of standards, we quantify the GPS and SLR/DORIS-based orbit centering during the Jason-1 and Jason-2 inter-calibration period and how this impacts the orbit radial error over the globe, which is assimilated into mean sea level (MSL) error, from the omission of the full term of the geocenter motion correction.

Melachroinos, Stavros A.↗

The Effect of Geocenter Motion on Jason-2 Orbits and the Mean Sea Level

We compute a series of Jason-2 GPS and SLR/DORIS-based orbits using ITRF2005 and the std0905 standards (Lemoine et al. 2010). Our GPS and SLR/DORIS orbit data sets span a period of 2 years from cycle 3 (July 2008) to cycle 74 (July 2010). We extract the Jason-2 orbit frame translational parameters per cycle by the means of a Helmert transformation between a set of reference orbits and a set of test orbits. We compare the annual terms of these time-series to the annual terms of two different geocenter motion models where biases and trends have been removed. Subsequently, we include the annual terms of the modeled geocenter motion as a degree-1 loading displacement correction to the GPS and SLR/DORIS tracking network of the POD process. Although the annual geocenter motion correction would reflect a stationary signal in time, under ideal conditions, the whole geocenter motion is a non-stationary process that includes secular trends. Our results suggest that our GSFC Jason-2 GPS-based orbits are closely tied to the center of mass (CM) of the Earth consistent with our current force modeling, whereas GSFC's SLR/DORIS-based orbits are tied to the origin of ITRF2005, which is the center of figure (CF) for sub-secular scales. We quantify the GPS and SLR/DORIS orbit centering and how this impacts the orbit radial error over the globe, which is assimilated into mean sea level (MSL) error, from the omission of the annual term of the geocenter correction. We find that for the SLR/DORIS std0905 orbits, currently used by the oceanographic community, only the negligence of the annual term of the geocenter motion correction results in a 4.67 plus or minus 3.40 mm error in the Z-component of the orbit frame which creates 1.06 plus or minus 2.66 mm of systematic error in the MSL estimates, mainly due to the uneven distribution of the oceans between the North and South hemisphere.

Melachroinos, S. A.↗

Scatter-Reducing Sounding Filtration Using a Genetic Algorithm and Mean Monthly Standard Deviation

Retrieval algorithms like that used by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2 mission generate massive quantities of data of varying quality and reliability. A computationally efficient, simple method of labeling problematic datapoints or predicting soundings that will fail is required for basic operation, given that only 6% of the retrieved data may be operationally processed. This method automatically obtains a filter designed to reduce scatter based on a small number of input features. Most machine-learning filter construction algorithms attempt to predict error in the CO2 value. By using a surrogate goal of Mean Monthly STDEV, the goal is to reduce the retrieved CO2 scatter rather than solving the harder problem of reducing CO2 error. This lends itself to improved interpretability and performance. This software reduces the scatter of retrieved CO2 values globally based on a minimum number of input features. It can be used as a prefilter to reduce the number of soundings requested, or as a post-filter to label data quality. The use of the MMS (Mean Monthly Standard deviation) provides a much cleaner, clearer filter than the standard ABS(CO2-truth) metrics previously employed by competitor methods. The software's main strength lies in a clearer (i.e., fewer features required) filter that more efficiently reduces scatter in retrieved CO2 rather than focusing on the more complex (and easily removed) bias issues.

Mandrake, Lukas↗

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Estimating Root Mean Square Errors in Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture over Continental Scale Domains

Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) in the soil moisture anomaly time series obtained from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E; using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model) are estimated over a continental scale domain centered on North America, using two methods: triple colocation (RMSETC ) and error propagation through the soil moisture retrieval models (RMSEEP ). In the absence of an established consensus for the climatology of soil moisture over large domains, presenting a RMSE in soil moisture units requires that it be specified relative to a selected reference data set. To avoid the complications that arise from the use of a reference, the RMSE is presented as a fraction of the time series standard deviation (fRMSE). For both sensors, the fRMSETC and fRMSEEP show similar spatial patterns of relatively highlow errors, and the mean fRMSE for each land cover class is consistent with expectations. Triple colocation is also shown to be surprisingly robust to representativity differences between the soil moisture data sets used, and it is believed to accurately estimate the fRMSE in the remotely sensed soil moisture anomaly time series. Comparing the ASCAT and AMSR-E fRMSETC shows that both data sets have very similar accuracy across a range of land cover classes, although the AMSR-E accuracy is more directly related to vegetation cover. In general, both data sets have good skill up to moderate vegetation conditions.

Remotely sensed soil moisture validation↗

Mean Flow Augmented Acoustics in Rocket Systems

Oscillatory motion in solid rocket motors and liquid engines has long been a subject of concern. Many rockets display violent fluctuations in pressure, velocity, and temperature originating from the complex interactions between the combustion process and gas dynamics. The customary approach to modeling acoustic waves inside a rocket chamber is to apply the classical inhomogeneous wave equation to the combustion gas. The assumption of a linear, non-dissipative wave in a quiescent fluid remains valid while the acoustic amplitudes are small and local gas velocities stay below Mach 0.2. The converging section of a rocket nozzle, where gradients in pressure, density, and velocity become large, is a notable region where this approach is not applicable. The expulsion of unsteady energy through the nozzle of a rocket is identified as the predominate source of acoustic damping for most rocket systems. An accurate model of the acoustic behavior within this region where acoustic modes are influenced by the presence of a steady mean flow is required for reliable stability predictions. Recently, an approach to address nozzle damping with mean flow effects was implemented by French [1]. This new approach extends the work originated by Sigman and Zinn [2] by solving the acoustic velocity potential equation (AVPE) formulated by perturbing the Euler equations [3]. The acoustic velocity potential (psi) describing the acoustic wave motion in the presence of an inhomogeneous steady high-speed flow is defined by, (del squared)(psi) − (lambda/c)(exp 2)(psi) − M(dot)[M(dot)(del)(del(psi))] − 2(lambda(M/c) + (M(dot)del(M))(dot)del(psi)−2(lambda)(psi)[M(dot)del(1/c)]=0 (1) with M as the Mach vector, c as the speed of sound, and lambda as the complex eigenvalue. French apply the finite volume method to solve the steady flow field within the combustion chamber and nozzle with inviscid walls. The complex eigenvalues and eigenvector are determined with the use of the ARPACK eigensolver. The present study employs the COMSOL Multphysics framework to solve the coupled eigenvalue problem using the finite element approach. The study requires one way coupling of the CFD High Mach Number Flow (HMNF) and mathematics module. The HMNF module evaluated the gas flow inside of a solid rocket motor using St. Robert's law modeling solid propellant burn rate, slip boundary conditions, and the supersonic outflow condition. Results from the HMNF model are used by the coefficient form of the mathematics module to determine the eigenvalues of the AVPE. The mathematics model is truncated at the nozzle sonic line, where a zero flux boundary condition is self-satisfying. The remaining boundaries are modeled with a zero flux boundary condition, assuming zero acoustic absorption on all surfaces. Pertinent results from these analyses are the complex valued eigenvalue and eigenvectors. Comparisons are made to the French results to evaluate the modeling approach. A comparison of the French results with that of the present analysis is displayed in figures 1 and 2, respectively. The graphic shows the first tangential eigenvector's real (a) and imaginary (b) values.

Fischbach, Sean R.↗

Mean Flow Augmented Acoustics in Rocket Systems

Combustion instability in solid rocket motors and liquid engines has long been a subject of concern. Many rockets display violent fluctuations in pressure, velocity, and temperature originating from the complex interactions between the combustion process and gas dynamics. Recent advances in energy based modeling of combustion instabilities require accurate determination of acoustic frequencies and mode shapes. Of particular interest is the acoustic mean flow interactions within the converging section of a rocket nozzle, where gradients of pressure, density, and velocity become large. The expulsion of unsteady energy through the nozzle of a rocket is identified as the predominate source of acoustic damping for most rocket systems. Recently, an approach to address nozzle damping with mean flow effects was implemented by French [1]. This new approach extends the work originated by Sigman and Zinn [2] by solving the acoustic velocity potential equation (AVPE) formulated by perturbing the Euler equations [3]. The present study aims to implement the French model within the COMSOL Multiphysiscs framework and analyzes one of the author's presented test cases.

Fischbach, Sean↗

Use of 2d-video Disdrometer to Derive Mean Density-size and Ze-SR Relations: Four Snow Cases from the Light Precipitation Validation Experiment

The application of the 2D-video disdrometer to measure fall speed and snow size distribution and to derive liquid equivalent snow rate, mean density-size and reflectivity-snow rate power law is described. Inversion of the methodology proposed by Böhm provides the pathway to use measured fall speed, area ratio and '3D' size measurement to estimate the mass of each particle. Four snow cases from the Light Precipitation Validation Experiment are analyzed with supporting data from other instruments such as Precipitation Occurrence Sensor System (POSS), Snow Video Imager (SVI), a network of seven snow gauges and three scanning C9 band radars. The radar-based snow accumulations using the 2DVD-derived Ze-SR relation are in good agreement with a network of seven snow gauges and outperform the accumulations derived from a climatological Ze-SR relation used by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). The normalized bias between radar-derived and gauge accumulation is reduced from 96% when using the fixed FMI relation to 28% when using the Ze-SR relations based on 2DVD data. The normalized standard error is also reduced significantly from 66% to 31%. For two of the days with widely different coefficients of the Ze-SR power law, the reflectivity structure showed significant differences in spatial variability. Liquid water path estimates from radiometric data also showed significant differences between the two cases. Examination of SVI particle images at the measurement site corroborated these differences in terms of unrimed versus rimed snow particles. The findings reported herein support the application of Böhm's methodology for deriving the mean density-size and Ze-SR power laws using data from 2D-video disdrometer.

radar↗

Calibrating Historical IR Sensors Using GEO, and AVHRR Infrared Tropical Mean Calibration Models

Long-term, remote-sensing-based climate data records (CDRs) are highly dependent on having consistent, wellcalibrated satellite instrument measurements of the Earth's radiant energy. Therefore, by making historical satellite calibrations consistent with those of today's imagers, the Earth-observing community can benefit from a CDR that spans a minimum of 30 years. Most operational meteorological satellites rely on an onboard blackbody and space looks to provide on-orbit IR calibration, but neither target is traceable to absolute standards. The IR channels can also be affected by ice on the detector window, angle dependency of the scan mirror emissivity, stray-light, and detector-to-detector striping. Being able to quantify and correct such degradations would mean IR data from any satellite imager could contribute to a CDR. Recent efforts have focused on utilizing well-calibrated modern hyper-spectral sensors to intercalibrate concurrent operational IR imagers to a single reference. In order to consistently calibrate both historical and current IR imagers to the same reference, however, another strategy is needed. Large, well-characterized tropical-domain Earth targets have the potential of providing an Earth-view reference accuracy of within 0.5 K. To that effort, NASA Langley is developing an IR tropical mean calibration model in order to calibrate historical Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments. Using Meteosat-9 (Met-9) as a reference, empirical models are built based on spatially/temporally binned Met-9 and AVHRR tropical IR brightness temperatures. By demonstrating the stability of the Met-9 tropical models, NOAA-18 AVHRR can be calibrated to Met-9 by matching the AVHRR monthly histogram averages with the Met-9 model. This method is validated with ray-matched AVHRR and Met-9 biasdifference time series. Establishing the validity of this empirical model will allow for the calibration of historical AVHRR sensors to within 0.5 K, and thereby establish a climate-quality IR data record.

Scarino, Benjamin↗

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Celine J W Bonfils↗

Assessing the Ability of Instantaneous Aircraft and Sonde Measurements to Characterize Climatological Means and Long-Term Trends in Tropospheric Composition

Over four decades of measurements exist that sample the 3-D composition of reactive trace gases in the troposphere from approximately weekly ozone sondes, instrumentation on civil aircraft, and individual comprehensive aircraft field campaigns. An obstacle to using these data to evaluate coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs)the models used to project future changes in atmospheric composition and climateis that exact space-time matching between model fields and observations cannot be done, as CCMs generate their own meteorology. Evaluation typically involves averaging over large spatiotemporal regions, which may not reflect a true average due to limited or biased sampling. This averaging approach generally loses information regarding specific processes. Here we aim to identify where discrete sampling may be indicative of long-term mean conditions, using the GEOS-Chem global chemical-transport model (CTM) driven by the MERRA reanalysis to reflect historical meteorology from 2003 to 2012 at 2o by 2.5o resolution. The model has been sampled at the time and location of every ozone sonde profile available from the Would Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC), along the flight tracks of the IAGOSMOZAICCARABIC civil aircraft campaigns, as well as those from over 20 individual field campaigns performed by NASA, NOAA, DOE, NSF, NERC (UK), and DLR (Germany) during the simulation period. Focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen species, we assess where aggregates of the in situ data are representative of the decadal mean vertical, spatial and temporal distributions that would be appropriate for evaluating CCMs. Next, we identically sample a series of parallel sensitivity simulations in which individual emission sources (e.g., lightning, biogenic VOCs, wildfires, US anthropogenic) have been removed one by one, to assess where and when the aggregated observations may offer constraints on these processes within CCMs. Lastly, we show results of an additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.

Atmospheric composition↗

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Simulation↗

Using Mean Orbit Period in Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Maneuver Design

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has provided communication relays for a number of Mars spacecraft. In 2016 MRO is expected to support a relay for NASA's Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport (InSight) spacecraft. In addition, support may be needed by another mission, ESA's ExoMars EDL Demonstrator Module's (EDM), only 21 days after the InSight coverage. The close proximity of these two events presents a unique challenge to a conventional orbit synchronization maneuver where one deterministic maneuver is executed prior to each relay. Since the two events are close together and the difference in required phasing between InSight and EDM may be up to half an orbit (yielding a large execution error), the downtrack timing error can increase rapidly at the EDM encounter. Thus, a new maneuver strategy that does not require a deterministic maneuver in-between the two events (with only a small statistical cleanup) is proposed in the paper. This proposed strategy rests heavily on the stability of the mean orbital period. The ability to search and set the specified mean period is fundamental in the proposed maneuver design as well as in understanding the scope of the problem. The proposed strategy is explained and its result is used to understand and solve the problem in the flight operations environment.

Chung, Min-Kun J.↗

Ensemble Mean Density and its Connection to Other Microphysical Properties of Falling Snow as Observed in Southern Finland

In this study measurements collected during winters 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 at the University of Helsinki measurement station in Hyytiala are used to investigate connections between ensemble mean snow density, particle fall velocity and parameters of the particle size distribution (PSD). The density of snow is derived from measurements of particle fall velocity and PSD, provided by a particle video imager, and weighing gauge measurements of precipitation rate. Validity of the retrieved density values is checked against snow depth measurements. A relation retrieved for the ensemble mean snow density and median volume diameter is in general agreement with previous studies, but it is observed to vary significantly from one winter to the other. From these observations, characteristic mass- dimensional relations of snow are retrieved. For snow rates more than 0.2mm/h, a correlation between the intercept parameter of normalized gamma PSD and median volume diameter was observed.

Tiira, Jussi↗

Assessing the Impact of Vertical Land Motion on Twentieth Century Global Mean Sea Level Estimates

Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.2460.08 mm yr21 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

Hamlington, B. D.↗

K-Means Cluster Study for Radiofrequency Propagation Characterization

The objective of this study is to design a simple method for mining radio frequency (RF) propagation data. The study explored the characteristics of a large dataset of propagation experiments conducted over the span of years and using several ground stations around the world. Furthermore, this study developed simple predictive models that can be used for link characterization and overall propagation behavior description, without the need for physical measurements on-site. It is understood that such statistical learning has several drawbacks in terms of accuracy and precision. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set in a way never explored before in an attempt to create useful tools that reduce cost, time and risk. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set. Cosine distance was used as a method to determine the optimal number for clustering each feature. Dependence and independence analysis was performed to explore intra and inter-sensitivity between the presented features, with respect to each other and time. Several predicative models were generated and evaluated with respect to a test set to assess a measure of prediction accuracy and precision. A simple method for data analysis was developed and tested as the basis for further studies and future refinement to produce optimal performing models.

Cognitive↗