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At least 379 records · Page 21

Modeling and Evaluation of the Global Sea-Salt Aerosol Distribution: Sensitivity to Emission Schemes and Resolution Effects at Coastal/Orographic Sites

One of the major sources of uncertainty in model estimates of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution is the emission parameterization. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol life cycle module coupled to the online multi-scale chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. We compare 5 year global simulations using five state-of-the-art sea-salt open-ocean emission schemes with monthly averaged coarse aerosol optical depth (AOD) from selected AERONET sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network, and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1). Model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of sea-surface-temperature (SST)-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Emission ranges from 3888 teragrams per year to 8114 teragrams per year, lifetime varies between 7.3 hours and 11.3 hours, and the average column mass load is between 5.0 teragrams and 7.2 teragrams. Coarse AOD is reproduced with an overall correlation of around 0.5 and with normalized biases ranging from +8.8 percent to +38.8 percent. Surface concentration is simulated with normalized biases ranging from minus 9.5 percent to plus 28 percent and the overall correlation is around 0.5. Our results indicate that SST-dependent emission schemes improve the overall model performance in reproducing surface concentrations. On the other hand, they lead to an overestimation of the coarse AOD at tropical latitudes, although it may be affected by uncertainties in the comparison due to the use of all-sky model AOD, the treatment of water uptake, deposition and optical properties in the model and/or an inaccurate size distribution at emission.

Bias↗

Finite element methods in probabilistic mechanics

Probabilistic methods, synthesizing the power of finite element methods with second-order perturbation techniques, are formulated for linear and nonlinear problems. Random material, geometric properties and loads can be incorporated in these methods, in terms of their fundamental statistics. By construction, these methods are applicable when the scale of randomness is not too large and when the probabilistic density functions have decaying tails. By incorporating certain computational techniques, these methods are shown to be capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. Applications showing the effects of combined random fields and cyclic loading/stress reversal are studied and compared with Monte Carlo simulation results.

Liu, Wing Kam↗

A Probabilistic Approach to Model Update

Finite element models are often developed for load validation, structural certification, response predictions, and to study alternate design concepts. In rare occasions, models developed with a nominal set of parameters agree with experimental data without the need to update parameter values. Today, model updating is generally heuristic and often performed by a skilled analyst with in-depth understanding of the model assumptions. Parameter uncertainties play a key role in understanding the model update problem and therefore probabilistic analysis tools, developed for reliability and risk analysis, may be used to incorporate uncertainty in the analysis. In this work, probability analysis (PA) tools are used to aid the parameter update task using experimental data and some basic knowledge of potential error sources. Discussed here is the first application of PA tools to update parameters of a finite element model for a composite wing structure. Static deflection data at six locations are used to update five parameters. It is shown that while prediction of individual response values may not be matched identically, the system response is significantly improved with moderate changes in parameter values.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

Latent Cure Epoxy Matrix Resins for Reliable Assembly of Thermoset Composite Structures

Polymer matrix composites are used in high performance structures because of their excellent specific strength, toughness, and stiffness. To realize their full potential, complex composite structures must be assembled with adhesive, but uncertainty in bond performance often requires manufacturers to install bolts or other crack-arrest features to ensure safety in critical applications.1 The inherent uncertainty in adhesive bonds stems from the material discontinuity at the composite-to-adhesive interfaces, which are susceptible to contamination and other causes of inter-facial weakness.2 In contrast, co-cured composites, although limited in size and complexity, result in predictable structures that may be certifiable for commercial aviation with reduced dependence on redundant load paths.1 The technology proposed here uses a stoichiometric offset of the hardener-to-epoxy ratio on the faying surfaces of epoxy compo-site laminates. Assembly of the components in a subsequent “secondary co-cure” process results in a joint with no material discontinuities (Figure 1)

Frank L. Palmieri↗

Probabilistic assessment of composite structures

A general purpose methodology for integrated probabilistic assessment of composite structures is demonstrated using aircraft fuselage type structures with rectangular cutouts. The computational simulation took into account buckling loads, vibration frequencies, global displacements, and local stresses. The procedure was embedded into the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) that calculates the simulated scatter, the sensitivity of the composite structural behavior to all the primitive variables that affect the structural behavior. The probabilistic assessment for the composite structure with rectangular cutouts indicates that the uncertainty in the longitudinal ply stress is mainly due to uncertainty in the laminate thickness.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Subscale Acoustic Testing: Comparison of ALAT and ASMAT

The liftoff phase induces acoustic loading over a broad frequency range for a launch vehicle. These external acoustic environments are then used in the prediction of internal vibration responses of the vehicle and components which result in the qualification levels. Thus, predicting these liftoff acoustic environments is critical to the design requirements of any launch vehicle. If there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the predictions or if acoustic mitigation options must be implemented, a subscale acoustic test is a feasible pre-launch test option. This paper compares the acoustic measurements of two different subscale tests: the 2% Ares Liftoff Acoustic Test conducted at Stennis Space Center and the 5% Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center.

Houston, Janice D.↗

A Multimodel Investigation of Asian Summer Monsoon UTLS Transport Over the Western Pacific

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) as a chemical transport system is investigated using a suite of models in preparation for an airborne field campaign over the Western Pacific. Results show that the dynamical process of anticyclone eddy shedding in the upper troposphere rapidly transports convectively uplifted Asian boundary layer air masses to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Western Pacific. The models show that the transported air masses contain significantly enhanced aerosol loading and a complex chemical mixture of trace gases that are relevant to ozone chemistry. The chemical forecast models consistently predict the occurrence of the shedding events, but the predicted concentrations of transported trace gases and aerosols often differ between models. The airborne measurements to be obtained in the field campaign are expected to help reduce the model uncertainties. Furthermore, the large-scale seasonal chemical structure of the monsoon system is obtained from modeled carbon monoxide, a tracer of the convective transport of pollutants, which provides a new perspective of the ASM circulation, complementing the dynamical characterization of the monsoon.

Laura L. Pan↗

Reliability of stiffened structural panels: Two examples

The reliability of two graphite-epoxy stiffened panels that contain uncertainties is examined. For one panel, the effect of an overall bow-type initial imperfection is studied. The size of the bow is assumed to be a random variable. The failure mode is buckling. The benefits of quality control are explored by using truncated distributions. For the other panel, the effect of uncertainties in a strain-based failure criterion is studied. The allowable strains are assumed to be random variables. A geometrically nonlinear analysis is used to calculate a detailed strain distribution near an elliptical access hole in a wing panel that was tested to failure. Calculated strains are used to predict failure. Results are compared with the experimental failure load of the panel.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

AST Launch Vehicle Acoustics

The liftoff phase induces acoustic loading over a broad frequency range for a launch vehicle. These external acoustic environments are then used in the prediction of internal vibration responses of the vehicle and components which result in the qualification levels. Thus, predicting these liftoff acoustic (LOA) environments is critical to the design requirements of any launch vehicle. If there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the predictions or if acoustic mitigation options must be implemented, a subscale acoustic test is a feasible pre-launch test option to verify the LOA environments. The NASA Space Launch System (SLS) program initiated the Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) to verify the predicted SLS LOA environments and to determine the acoustic reduction with an above deck water sound suppression system. The SMAT was conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center and the test article included a 5% scale SLS vehicle model, tower and Mobile Launcher. Acoustic and pressure data were measured by approximately 250 instruments. The SMAT liftoff acoustic results are presented, findings are discussed and a comparison is shown to the Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test (ASMAT) results.

Houston, Janice↗

SLS Scale Model Acoustic Test Liftoff Results and Comparisons

The liftoff phase induces acoustic loading over a broad frequency range for a launch vehicle. These external acoustic environments are then used in the prediction of internal vibration responses of the vehicle and components which result in the qualification levels. Thus, predicting these liftoff acoustic (LOA) environments is critical to the design requirements of any launch vehicle. If there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the predictions or if acoustic mitigation options must be implemented, a subscale acoustic test is a feasible design phase test option to verify the LOA environments. The NASA Space Launch System (SLS) program initiated the Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) to verify the predicted SLS LOA environments.

Houston, Janice↗

System Identification of Damped Truss-Like Space Structures

A spacecraft payload flown on a launch vehicle experiences dynamic loads. The dynamic loads are caused by various phenomena ranging from the start-up of the launch vehicle engine to wind gusts. A spacecraft payload should be designed to meet launch vehicle dynamic loads. One of the major steps taken towards determining the dynamic loads is to correlate the finite element model of the spacecraft with the test results of a modal survey test. A test-verified finite element model of the spacecraft should possess the same spatial properties (stiffness, mass, and damping) and modal properties (frequencies and mode shapes) as the test hardware representing the spacecraft. The test-verified and correlated finite element model of the spacecraft is then coupled with the finite element model of the launch vehicle for analysis of loads and stress. Modal survey testing, verification of a finite element model, and modification of the finite element model to match the modal survey test results can easily be accomplished if the spacecraft structure is simple. However, this is rarely the case. A simple structure here is defined as a structure where the influence of nonlinearity between force and displacement (uncertainty in a test, for example, with errors in input and output), and the influence of damping (structural, coulomb, and viscous) are not pronounced. The objective of this study is to develop system identification and correlation methods with the focus on the structural systems that possess nonproportional damping. Two approaches to correct the nonproportional damping matrix of a truss structure were studied, and have been implemented on truss-like structures such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's space station truss. The results of this study showed nearly 100 percent improvement of the correlated eigensystem over the analytical eigensystem. The first method showed excellent results with up to three modes used in the system identification process. The second method could handle more modes, but required more computer usage time, and the results were less accurate than those of the first method.

Armand, Sasan↗

Aerothermal Analysis of the Rocket Lab Venus Probe Heatshield

This document provides an overview of the aerothermodynamic analyses performed by the Aerothermodynamics Branch at NASA Langley Research Center for the Rocket Lab Venus Probe (RLVP). In addition to defining the baseline heating environment to the heatshield, this document pursues the experimental validation of key physical models at RLVP-relevant conditions. This experimental validation analysis, which captures the model form uncertainty, is used as one of two primary components of the margin assessment, where the other component is the parametric uncertainty. These model form (experimental) and parametric uncertainty components are used to construct a spatial and time varying margin for the heating to the RLVP heatshield. The margin is evaluated as the sum of the parametric and model form uncertainty components. The model form uncertainty is defined as the difference between the RLVP-relevant measurements and their simulations, using the upper limit uncertainty bounds for both the measurements and simulations in the comparisons. The differences in the dominant physics in the stagnation region and flank lead to the separate RLVP-relevant measurements for assessing the model form uncertainty in these two regions. These regions are addressed as follows: Stagnation Region Heating Environment: For the high-temperature stagnation-region, both the radiative heating and impact of blowing on convective heating are significant, while the impacts of turbulence and roughness are negligible. Coupled radiation and ablation LAURA/HARA solutions with ray-tracing provide the radiative heating over the entire vehicle, including the contributions from the Venus atmosphere and ablation species. Non-ablating LAURA simulations provide the convective heating. During the material-response computation typically used for TPS sizing, this non-ablating convective heating is corrected for the impact of ablation using the blowing correction. Coupled ablation LAURA simulations that capture finite-rate sur-face processes show that this blowing correction may be non-conservative over most of the heatshield. This non-conservatism is due to hydrogen recombination in the finite-rate surface model, which tends to increase the coupled ablation convective heating to near the non-ablating values, therefore making any reduction in the non-ablating value through the blowing correction non-conservative. This non-conservatism due to H catalysis is captured in the parametric component of the margin. The best available ground-test measurements that capture the impact of blowing on stagnation region convective heating, at RLVP-relevant conditions, indicate that the current blowing reduction model is non-conservative by up to 20% at RLVP-relevant blowing rates (the coupled blowing simulations were also non-conservative). Because of the relatively low velocity of the ground tests and the non-Venus atmospheric chemistry, these measurements do not capture the chemistry and therefore do not inform the uncertainty due to H catalysis. However, they do capture the fluid mechanics of blowing. The non-conservatism of the blowing correction implied by these measurements is covered by the model form component of the margin, which leads to total margin values over 50%. For the radiative heating, the shock-tube informed bias approach suggests a model form uncertainty of roughly 20%, while the parametric uncertainty analysis suggests values over 100%. The combined stagnation-point radiation margin of over 100% leads to peak margined radiative heating values of over300 W/cm2, which remains small relative to the peak margined convective heating of nearly 2000 W/cm2. Based on this analysis, at the stagnation point, the peak margined heat rate is 2203 W/cm2 and the margined total heat load is 31.5 kJ/cm2 for the current nominal trajectory. Flank Heating Environment: The forebody flank (and near-shoulder) heating environment is dominated by the impact of turbulence, roughness augmentation, and ablation on the convective heating. An extensive collection of ground test measurements with RLVP-relevant turbulence and roughness is studied to show that the maximum difference between the simulated and measured convective heating is 5%. However, with the exception of the Holden measurements from the 1980s, these measurements do not include roughness elements extending into the supersonic region of the boundary layer, which is likely to occur for RLVP (due to the 45 degree sphere-cone geometry). The interaction between the supersonic flow and roughness could cause convective heating augmentation fundamentally different than for locally subsonic flow. Although these Holden measurements are consistent with the other measurements considered, another path was pursued to assure that the rough-ness height extending into supersonic flow does not fundamentally change the roughness augmentation. This additional path was a computational effort to resolve the roughness elements in the CFD grid, so that the interaction be-tween the roughness elements and locally supersonic flow may be simulated in detail. This roughness-resolved CFD simulation is feasible because of the RLVP forebody TPS’s patterned roughness, which may be approximated analytically, and because of the axisymmetric nominal flow field, which allows a narrow surface region to be simulated and therefore make the computational expense feasible. These grid-resolved roughness simulations, which are performed at actual RLVP flight conditions, result in heating augmentation values that are below the design approach for roughness augmentation. This provides evidence that the design approach for RLVP roughness augmentation is sufficient. Based on this analysis, at this flank or near-shoulder location, the peak margined total heat rate is 2088 W/cm2and the margined total heat load is 26.0 kJ/cm2for the current nominal trajectory. Heat flux, shear, pressure and heat transfer coefficient at the RLVP stagnation point and near shoulder location are evaluated for the entire trajectory, and curved fit to a functional form of F=AρB∞UC∞. These simplified relationships for the nominal and margined aerothermal environments are referred to as aerothermal indicators, and presented at the end of this document.

Christopher O Johnston↗

Sensitivity analysis of limit state functions for probability-based plastic design

The evaluation of the total probability of a plastic collapse failure P sub f for a highly redundant structure of random interdependent plastic moments acted on by random interdepedent loads is a difficult and computationally very costly process. The evaluation of reasonable bounds to this probability requires the use of second moment algebra which involves man statistical parameters. A computer program which selects the best strategy for minimizing the interval between upper and lower bounds of P sub f is now in its final stage of development. The relative importance of various uncertainties involved in the computational process on the resulting bounds of P sub f, sensitivity is analyzed. Response sensitivities for both mode and system reliability of an ideal plastic portal frame are shown.

Frangopol, D. M.↗

Variational approach to probabilistic finite elements

Probabilistic finite element method (PFEM), synthesizing the power of finite element methods with second-moment techniques, are formulated for various classes of problems in structural and solid mechanics. Time-invariant random materials, geometric properties, and loads are incorporated in terms of their fundamental statistics viz. second-moments. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random fields are also discretized. Preserving the conceptual simplicity, the response moments are calculated with minimal computations. By incorporating certain computational techniques, these methods are shown to be capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. By construction, these methods are applicable when the scale of randomness is not very large and when the probabilistic density functions have decaying tails. The accuracy and efficiency of these methods, along with their limitations, are demonstrated by various applications. Results obtained are compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and it is shown that good accuracy can be obtained for both linear and nonlinear problems. The methods are amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer codes.

Belytschko, T.↗

Variational approach to probabilistic finite elements

Probabilistic finite element methods (PFEM), synthesizing the power of finite element methods with second-moment techniques, are formulated for various classes of problems in structural and solid mechanics. Time-invariant random materials, geometric properties and loads are incorporated in terms of their fundamental statistics viz. second-moments. Analogous to the discretization of the displacement field in finite element methods, the random fields are also discretized. Preserving the conceptual simplicity, the response moments are calculated with minimal computations. By incorporating certain computational techniques, these methods are shown to be capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. By construction, these methods are applicable when the scale of randomness is not very large and when the probabilistic density functions have decaying tails. The accuracy and efficiency of these methods, along with their limitations, are demonstrated by various applications. Results obtained are compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and it is shown that good accuracy can be obtained for both linear and nonlinear problems. The methods are amenable to implementation in deterministic FEM based computer codes.

Belytschko, T.↗

Development of the Surface Management System Integrated with CTAS Arrival Tools

The Surface Management System (SMS) developed by NASA Ames Research Center in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is a decision support tool to help tower traffic coordinators and Ground/Local controllers in managing and controlling airport surface traffic in order to increase capacity, efficiency, and flexibility. SMS provides common situation awareness to personnel at various air traffic control facilities such as airport traffic control towers (ATCT s), airline ramp towers, Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON), and Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). SMS also provides a traffic management tool to assist ATCT traffic management coordinators (TMCs) in making decisions such as airport configuration and runway load balancing. The Build 1 of the SMS tool was installed and successfully tested at Memphis International Airport (MEM) and received high acceptance scores from ATCT controllers and coordinators, as well as airline ramp controllers. NASA Ames Research Center continues to develop SMS under NASA s Strategic Airspace Usage (SAU) project in order to improve its prediction accuracy and robustness under various modeling uncertainties. This paper reports the recent development effort performed by the NASA Ames Research Center: 1) integration of Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) capability with SMS and 2) an alternative approach to obtain airline gate information through a publicly available website. The preliminary analysis results performed on the air/surface traffic data at the DFW airport have shown significant improvement in predicting airport arrival demand and IN time at the gate. This paper concludes with recommendations for future research and development.

Jung, Yoon C.↗

Lunar Basins: New Evidence from Gravity for Impact-Formed Mascons

The prominent gravity highs (mascons) associated with uncompensated mass anomalies in lunar mare basins are a dramatic expression of the present-day rigidity of the lunar lithosphere. First discovered in Lunar Orbiter tracking data, these about 350-mGal gravity highs have been redetermined from the analysis of Clementine and historical tracking. These highs coincide with topographic lows, indicating nonisostatic support. One of the rediscoveries of this analysis is the encirclement of the highs by substantial negative anomalies over topographic highs. Recent gravity fields are providing the increased resolution necessary to determine the causes of this unique mascon signature. The compensation of the basin anomalies remains controversial. The mascon highs have long been interpreted as the result of mare loading, subsequent to the decay of residual stresses resulting from the impact. Substantially more mare fill is required to produce mascon highs than has been inferred on geological grounds, and the amount of near-surface mass deficit required to produce a gravity most exceeds bounds inferred from terrestrial examples. This problem is most acute for the youngest basin, Orientale. Recent gravity fields from Lunar Prospector have suggested mascon highs associated with nonmare basins such as Mendel-Rydberg, or minimally filled basins like Humboldtianum, further calling this explanation into question. We suggest that the mascon gravity signal is produced by a combination of crustal thickness changes, manifested by central mantle uplift, outward displacement of crust, and downward flexure of the lithosphere under mare loading. The mantle uplift is superisostatic, maintained by residual stresses resulting from the process of impact cratering and modification. In particular, the process of crater collapse and mantle rebound terminates abruptly, leaving the mantle plug in a non-equilibrium state, surrounded by a ring of thickened crust. Viscous relaxation over geological timescales has erased some but not all of the signature of the impact process. Mantle uplift inferred from gravity modeling is inversely correlated with age. While the oldest basins such as South Pole Aitken are mainly compensated isotatically, the younger basins appear to have been in a state of superisostatic loading prior to mare emplacement. If this is true, this places an important constraint on the impact process at basin scales. The idea that rebound of the transient crater via acoustic fluidization may freeze substantial stresses imcomplete to this day, may be tested by examining the gravity signatures of major basins on terrestrial bodies. The moon provides the clearest resolved examples to date, but uncertainty in gravity knowledge remains problematic.

Neumann, Gregory A.↗