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At least 379 records · Page 21

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗

Search in diphoton and dielectron final states for displaced production of Higgs or Z bosons with the ATLAS detector in s = 13 TeV p p collisions

A search is presented for displaced production of Higgs bosons or Z bosons, originating from the decay of a neutral long-lived particle (LLP) and reconstructed in the decay modes H → γ γ and Z → ee . The analysis uses the full Run 2 dataset of proton-proton collisions delivered by the LHC at an energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV between 2015 and 2018 and recorded by the ATLAS detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . Exploiting the capabilities of the ATLAS liquid argon calorimeter to precisely measure the arrival times and trajectories of electromagnetic objects, the analysis searches for the signature of pairs of photons or electrons which arise from a common displaced vertex and which arrive after some delay at the calorimeter. The results are interpreted in a gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking model with pair-produced Higgsinos that decay to LLPs, and each LLP subsequently decays into either a Higgs boson or a Z boson. The final state includes at least two particles that escape direct detection, giving rise to missing transverse momentum. No significant excess is observed above the background expectation. The results are used to set upper limits on the cross section for Higgsino pair production, up to a $\bar{χ}^0_1$ mass of 369 (704) GeV for decays with 100% branching ratio of $\bar{χ}^0_1$ to Higgs (Z) bosons for a $\bar{χ}^0_1$ lifetime of 2 ns. A model-independent limit is also set on the production of pairs of photons or electrons with a significant delay in arrival at the calorimeter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Estimates of the changes in tropospheric chemistry which result from human activity and their dependence on NO(x) emissions and model resolution

As a consequence of the non-linear behavior of the chemistry of the atmosphere and because of the short lifetime of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), two-dimensional models do not give an adequate description of the production and destruction rates of NO(x) and their effects on the distributions of the concentration of ozone and hydroxyl radical. In this study, we use a three-dimensional model to evaluate the contribution of increasing NO(x) emissions from industrial activity and biomass burning to changes in the chemical composition of the troposphere. By comparing results obtained from longitudinally-uniform and longitudinally-varying emissions of NO(x), we demonstrate that the geographical representation of the NO(x) emissions is crucial in simulating tropospheric chemistry.

Kanakidou, Maria↗

CCUS deployment under the U.S. 45Q tax credit and adaptation by other North American Governments: MARKAL modeling results

In 2018, U.S. Congress passed the Bipartisan Budget Act, known as 45Q [H.R. 3761], expanding the corporate income tax credit for carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS). 45Q provides a performance-based tax credit for carbon capture projects of $30/ton of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) (tCO 2 ) for anthropogenic CO 2 going to enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and $50/tCO 2 if going to straight storage. There are several conditions; for example, there is a 12-year time limit on tax credits for a new plant that commences construction before 2024 [H.R. 3761]. Here, this study aims to test the incremental impact of the 45Q tax credits on CCUS deployment, CO 2 -EOR, and power generation technological changes for North American (the United States, Canada, and Mexico) long-term energy system development. The scenario results show that offering a 12-year CO 2 storage subsidy provides the motivation needed for CCUS investment during the 12-year subsidy period, and the benefits of such investment can be sustained over the 40-year lifetime under CO 2 taxation. The modeling results show that carbon capture generation replaces uncontrolled fossil-fueled power, not new or existing renewables, so power generation and corresponding emission reductions from renewables remain unaffected by the availability of 45Q in the United States. Our scenario with CCUS technological learning indicates that CCUS could play a very important role under stringent environmental constraints. Thus, accelerated support and funding for the large-scale CCUS demonstrations is important for the execution of both short- and long-term climate mitigation goals. Given the significant role of the United States, Canada, and Mexico on the world energy system, our results represent an important contribution to the study of global energy trends.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modelling uranium dioxide corrosion under repository conditions: A pore-scale study of the chemical and thermal processes

This paper investigates the corrosion behaviors of spent uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) fuel when placed in geological repositories. We performed pore-scale reactive transport simulations of the UO 2 corrosion process in a defective fuel rod with different orientations of breach or fracture on its clad. It is found that the corrosion rate has strong dependency on the breach orientation. The highest corrosion rate of UO 2 is calculated when the angle between the groundwater flow direction and the clad fracture reaches 180°. UO 2 corrosion simulations with different flow rates are compared. The results show the higher flow rate accelerates the corrosion of UO 2 fuel. The effect of pH on the corrosion process is also determined. It is indicated that higher pH can limit the corrosion of UO 2 by reducing the reaction rate. The dependence of reaction rate and time on reactive surface area is explored. Spent fuel with lower surface area demonstrates longer lifetime under corrosion conditions. A numerical model coupling thermal conduction and chemical reactions is developed to assess the impact of temperature on the process of UO 2 corrosion. The results show that higher temperature leads to larger corrosion rates for UO 2 . Here, the predicted reaction rates are higher in comparison with the isothermal results. Hence, our results can help improve the fundamental understanding of UO 2 corrosion in geological repositories for long-term storage of spent nuclear fuels and provide guidance for the safe operations and selection of appropriate repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie↗

Constraints on metastable superheavy dark matter coupled to sterile neutrinos with the Pierre Auger Observatory

Dark matter particles could be superheavy, provided their lifetime is much longer than the age of the Universe. Using the sensitivity of the Pierre Auger Observatory to ultrahigh energy neutrinos and photons, we constrain a specific extension of the Standard Model of particle physics that meets the lifetime requirement for a superheavy particle by coupling it to a sector of ultralight sterile neutrinos. Our results show that, for a typical dark coupling constant of 0.1, the mixing angle θ m between active and sterile neutrinos must satisfy, roughly, θ m ≲ 1.5 × 10 − 6 ( M X / 10 9 GeV ) − 2 for a mass M X of the dark-matter particle between 10 8 GeV and 10 11 GeV . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols

Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA 30 Cm Ion Thruster Development Status

A 30 cm diameter xenon ion thruster is under development at NASA to provide an ion propulsion option for missions of national interest and it is an element of the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness (NSTAR) program established to validate ion propulsion for space flight applications. The thruster has been developed to an engineering model level and it incorporates innovations in design, materials, and fabrication techniques compared to those employed to conventional ion thrusters. The performance of both functional and engineering model thrusters has been assessed including thrust stand measurements, over an input power range of 0.5-2.3 kW. Attributes of the engineering model thruster include an overall mass of 6.4 kg, and an efficiency of 65 percent and thrust of 93 mN at 2.3 kW input power. This paper discusses the design, performance, and lifetime expectations of the functional and engineering model thrusters under development at NASA.

Patterson, Michael J.↗

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗

Phonon second harmonic generation in NaBr studied by inelastic neutron scattering and computer simulation

The phenomenon of second harmonic generation (SHG) was found for phonons in anharmonic NaBr by inelastic neutron scattering. The temperature dependence of this phonon SHG was measured from 300 K to 650 K. At 300 K the second harmonic (SH) is seen as a high-energy branch around 33 meV, nearly independent of $\overrightarrow{Q}$. The temperature effective potential (TDEP) method and classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulation with machine learning interatomic potential were able to reproduce the SH, and showed that SHG occurs with the flat transverse optical (TO) phonon branch. A classical model of a nonlinear medium explains the intensity and lifetime of the SH, compared to those of the TO modes. Also successful was a quantum model based on the Heisenberg-Langevin equation for interacting phonons coupled to a thermal bath, which also predicts a spectral distribution of the SH. In conclusion, the measured temperature dependence of the intensity of the second harmonic showed that it follows the Planck distribution of a one-phonon quasiparticle, and not two TO phonons.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

R Coronae Borealis Star Evolution: Simulating 3D Merger Events to 1D Stellar Evolution Including Large-scale Nucleosynthesis

R Coronae Borealis (RCB) stars are rare hydrogen-deficient carbon-rich variable supergiants thought to be the result of dynamically unstable white dwarf mergers. In this article, we attempt to model RCB stars through all the relevant timescales by simulating a merger event in Octo-tiger, a 3D adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) hydrodynamics code, and mapping the post-merger object into MESA, a 1D stellar evolution code. We then post-process the nucleosynthesis on a much larger nuclear reaction network to study the enhancement of s-process elements. We present models that match observations or previous studies in most surface abundances, isotopic ratios, early evolution, and lifetimes. We also observe similar mixing behavior to previous modeling attempts that result in the partial He-burning products visible on the surface in observations. However, we do note that our subsolar models lack any enhancement in s-process elements, which we attribute to a lack of hydrogen in the envelope. We also find that the 16 O/ 18 O isotopic ratio is very sensitive to initial hydrogen abundance and increases outside of the acceptable range with a hydrogen mass fraction greater than 10 -4 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effects of Reactive Power on Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability and Lifetime

This paper performs research on predicting Photovoltaic (PV) inverters reliability and lifetime based on thermal cycling. Thermal cycling is considered the most important stressors in an inverter system. In order to achieve this, a detailed electro-thermal model of the PV inverter will be developed along with their controllers capable of providing voltage support through reactive power. An in-house inverter was built, and a PV inverter model was developed to match the physical inverter. The PV inverter electrothermal model was validated for different ambient temperatures to match the in-house inverter hardware. The in-house inverter was placed inside a thermal chamber to emulate different ambient temperatures and their losses and temperature rises within the system were measured. After the validation of the model, a reduced order model of the inverter will be implemented to translate the mission profile of ambient temperature and solar irradiance into load profile of junction temperatures of the switches. The junction temperature data will be used to identify the reliability indices and hence predict the useful lifetime of the inverter system. Along with the model to predict useful lifetime of the system, the impact of reactive power on the overall reliability of the system will be studied. The key observation in this paper shows that lifetime of the inverter decreases as the operating power factor moves away from unity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reduction of bright exciton lifetimes by radiation-induced disorder

Quantum-radiative decay is a fundamental process in many optoelectronic systems such as laser diodes and solar cells. The bright exciton lifetime is a critical factor in determining the performance of these systems. Motivated by the ever-increasing need for laser systems in space and nuclear applications, we develop a many-particle approach to predict the radiative lifetime under harsh radiation environments. Here, using GaAs as a model system, we find that radiation-induced band tailing reduces the bright exciton lifetime. This result shows that the efficiency of radiative recombination, in addition to nonradiative recombination, can be affected by ionization radiation. Our approach enables a detailed understanding of the interplay between correlation, localization, and radiation that affect the performance of gain media.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Great (Flame) Balls of Fire! Structure of Flame Balls at Low Lewis-number-2 (SOFBALL-2)

Everyone knows that an automobile engine wastes fuel and energy when it runs with a fuel-rich mixture. 'Lean' burning, mixing in more air and less fuel, is better for the environment. But lean mixtures also lead to engine misfiring and rough operation. No one knows the ultimate limits for lean operation, for 'weak' combustion that is friendly to the environment while still moving us around. This is where the accidental verification of a decades-old prediction may have strong implications for designing and running low-emissions engines in the 21st century. In 1944, Soviet physicist Yakov Zeldovich predicted that stationary, spherical flames are possible under limited conditions in lean fuel-air mixtures. Dr. Paul Ronney of the University of Southern California accidentally discovered such 'flame balls' in experiments with lean hydrogen-air mixtures in 1984 during drop-tower experiments that provided just 2.2 seconds of near weightlessness. Experiments aboard NASA's low-g aircraft confirmed the results, but a thorough investigation was hampered by the aircraft's bumpy ride. And stable flame balls can only exist in microgravity. The potential for investigating combustion at the limits of flammability, and the implications for spacecraft fire safety, led to the Structure of Flame Balls at Low Lewis-number (SOFBALL) experiment flown twice aboard the Space Shuttle on the Microgravity Sciences Laboratory-1 (MSL-1) in 1997. Success there led to the planned reflight on STS-107. Flame balls are the weakest fires yet produced in space or on Earth. Typically each flame ball produced only 1 watt of thermal power. By comparison, a birthday candle produces 50 watts. The Lewis-number measures the rate of diffusion of fuel into the flame ball relative to the rate of diffusion of heat away from the flame ball. Lewis-number mixtures conduct heat poorly. Hydrogen and methane are the only fuels that provide low enough Lewis-numbers to produce stable flame balls, and even then only for very weak, barely flammable mixtures. Nevertheless, under these conditions flame balls give scientists the opportunity to test models in one of the simplest combustion experiments possible. SOFBALL-2 science objectives include: Improving our understanding of the flame ball phenomenon; Determining the conditions under which flame balls exist; Testing predictions of flame ball lifetimes; Acquiring more precise data for critical model comparison.

Ronney, Paul↗