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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscale Modeling to Characterize Eagle Soaring Habitat

Uncovering drivers of risk is crucial to understanding interactions between wildlife and wind turbines, and identifying options for impact minimization. These drivers tie to co-variates linked to behavior and movement patterns that allow us to estimate locations and periods of risk. For volant species, atmospheric flow can have significant influence on flight patterns. For obligate soaring birds, like golden eagles, updraft velocities can inform where eagles are likely to travel, at what altitude, and where conditions are not likely sufficient to sustain soaring flight. This has been an active area of study in recent years, using relatively coarse atmospheric data generally at the 20km x 20km scale or larger. Leveraging a 20-year dataset from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model), we are quantifying vertical velocities across the continental United States at a 2km x 2km resolution. Wind resource data sets originally were static maps showing the mean annual wind speed over an area. However, for these data sets to be optimally used for various applications they must be high-resolution time series, seamlessly span large geographic contexts, and account for uncertainty in wind speed. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is producing public available datasets that meet these criteria and will be bias corrected to yield the most accurate wind resource data. This effort is an augment to the current WIND Toolkit which houses a high resolution data set. In the new iteration of the WIND Toolkit, a 20-year dataset will be used to improve the accuracy and estimate uncertainty using ensemble and machine-learning techniques. The resulting product will be the most accurate dataset of its size and at a 2km x 2km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. Through this work, a mesoscale vertical velocity layer will be produced by calculating the likelihood of orographic updraft and thermal updraft conditions across the continental United States. Specifically, we will use WRF model output combined with digital elevation maps to predict updrafts and then determine if vertical velocities are sufficient to support Golden Eagle soaring and gliding. Ultimately this data layer will be made available as a GIS layer in the Wind Prospector (maps.nrel.gov/wind-prospector/) tool or a similar framework. Data that will be incorporated include wind speed, direction temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, air density, precipitation rate, solar radiation, atmospheric stability, skin temperature, and upward heat flux. These products will advance research on interactions between volant species and wind energy by providing open access to highly resolved data with uncertainty quantification not previously available at this scale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulated JWST Data Sets for Multispectral and Hyperspectral Image Fusion

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will provide multispectral and hyperspectral infrared images of a large number of astrophysical scenes. Multispectral images will have the highest angular resolution, while hyperspectral images (e.g., with integral field unit spectrometers) will provide the best spectral resolution. This paper aims at providing a comprehensive framework to generate an astrophysical scene and to simulate realistic hyperspectral and multispectral data acquired by two JWST instruments, namely, NIRCam Imager and NIRSpec IFU. We want to show that this simulation framework can be resorted to assess the benefits of fusing these images to recover an image of high spatial and spectral resolutions. To do so, we make a synthetic scene associated with a canonical infrared source, the Orion Bar. We develop forward models including corresponding noises for the two JWST instruments based on their physical features. JWST observations are then simulated by applying the forward models to the aforementioned synthetic scene. We test a dedicated fusion algorithm we developed on these simulated observations. We show that the fusion process reconstructs the high spatio-spectral resolution scene with a good accuracy on most areas, and we identify some limitations of the method to be tackled in future works. The synthetic scene and observations presented in the paper can be used, for instance, to evaluate instrument models, pipelines, or more sophisticated algorithms dedicated to JWST data analysis. Besides, fusion methods such as the one presented in this paper are shown to be promising tools to fully exploit the unprecedented capabilities of the JWST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Outer Radiation Belt Flux and Phase Space Density Response to Sheath Regions: Van Allen Probes and GPS Observations

Turbulent and compressed sheath regions preceding interplanetary coronal mass ejections strongly impact electron dynamics in the outer radiation belt. Changes in electron flux can occur on timescales of tens of minutes, which are unlikely to be captured by a two-satellite mission. The recently released Global Positioning System (GPS) data set generally has shorter revisit times (at L ~ 4–8) owing to the large number of satellites in the constellation equipped with energetic particle detectors. Investigating electron fluxes at energies from 140 keV to 4 MeV and sheaths observed in 2012–2018, we show that the flux response to sheaths on a timescale of 6 hr, previously reported from Van Allen Probes (RBSP) data, is reproduced by GPS measurements. Furthermore, GPS data enables derivation of the response on a timescale of 30 min, which further confirms that the energy and L-shell dependent changes in electron flux are associated with the impact of the sheath. Sheath-driven loss is underestimated over longer timescales as the electrons recover during the ejecta. We additionally show the response of electron phase space density (PSD), which is a key quantity in identifying non-adiabatic loss from the system and electron energization through wave-particle interactions. The PSD response is calculated from both RBSP and GPS data for the 6 hr timescale, as well as from GPS data for the 30 min timescale. The response is divided based on the geoeffectiveness of the sheaths revealing that electrons are effectively accelerated only during geoeffective sheaths, while loss commonly occurs during all sheaths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of the Senseiver for efficient field reconstruction from sparse observations

Abstract The reconstruction of complex time-evolving fields from sensor observations is a grand challenge. Frequently, sensors have extremely sparse coverage and low-resource computing capacity for measuring highly nonlinear phenomena. While numerical simulations can model some of these phenomena using partial differential equations, the reconstruction problem is ill-posed. Data-driven-strategies provide crucial disambiguation, but these suffer in cases with small amounts of data, and struggle to handle large domains. Here we present the Senseiver, an attention-based framework that excels in reconstructing complex spatial fields from few observations with low overhead. The Senseiver reconstructs n -dimensional fields by encoding arbitrarily sized sparse sets of inputs into a latent space using cross-attention, producing uniform-sized outputs regardless of the number of observations. This allows efficient inference by decoding only a sparse set of output observations, while a dense set of observations is needed to train. This framework enables training of data with complex boundary conditions and extremely large fine-scale simulations. We build on the Perceiver IO by enabling training models with fewer parameters, which facilitates field deployment, and a training framework that allows a flexible number of sensors as input, which is critical for real-world applications. We show that the Senseiver advances the state-of-the-art of field reconstruction in many applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The LSST AGN Data Challenge: Selection Methods

Abstract Development of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) includes a series of Data Challenges (DCs) arranged by various LSST Scientific Collaborations that are taking place during the project's preoperational phase. The AGN Science Collaboration Data Challenge (AGNSC-DC) is a partial prototype of the expected LSST data on active galactic nuclei (AGNs), aimed at validating machine learning approaches for AGN selection and characterization in large surveys like LSST. The AGNSC-DC took place in 2021, focusing on accuracy, robustness, and scalability. The training and the blinded data sets were constructed to mimic the future LSST release catalogs using the data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region and the XMM-Newton Large Scale Structure Survey region. Data features were divided into astrometry, photometry, color, morphology, redshift, and class label with the addition of variability features and images. We present the results of four submitted solutions to DCs using both classical and machine learning methods. We systematically test the performance of supervised models (support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network, convolutional neural network) and unsupervised ones (deep embedding clustering) when applied to the problem of classifying/clustering sources as stars, galaxies, or AGNs. We obtained classification accuracy of 97.5% for supervised models and clustering accuracy of 96.0% for unsupervised ones and 95.0% with a classic approach for a blinded data set. We find that variability features significantly improve the accuracy of the trained models, and correlation analysis among different bands enables a fast and inexpensive first-order selection of quasar candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance evaluation of a Terry GS-2 steam impulse turbine with air-water mixtures

Terry steam turbines are widely used in various industries because of their robust design. Within the nuclear power generation industry, they are used in the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System to remove decay heat during reactor isolation events. During the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station disaster in Japan in 2011, the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System and associated Terry turbine operated for over 70 hours in Unit 2; this runtime is well beyond the expected operating duration. Theories suggest the turbine was subjected to a two-phase inlet flow, which could degrade the turbine performance. In this work, an experimental test rig was constructed to test a full-scale Terry model GS-2 steam turbine under two-phase air/water flows. Steady-state efficiency and torque performance maps of the turbine were developed over a range of turbine inlet pressures (1.38–4.83 bar or 20–70 psia), air mass fractions (0.05–1.0) and rotational speeds up to 4000 RPM. Furthermore, turbine performance followed expected trends with torque varying linearly and efficiency varying quadratically with rotational speed. In addition, high-speed images of the two-phase flow entering the turbine were also analyzed to understand how changes in inlet pressure and air mass fraction affect the flow regime and homogenization. The present tests with air–water two-phase mixtures are an important step towards providing an understanding of the full-scale Terry turbine’s behavior and performance curves under two-phase conditions. The results of this work will be combined with air/water and steam/water data gathered using a small-scale Terry ZS-1 steam turbine in order to understand the scaling relationship between large and small size Terry turbines and fluid pairs. The combined data set will enable further development of analytical models over a wide range of conditions and may be used to provide technical justification for expanded use of the Terry turbines in nuclear power plant safety systems and other systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Probabilistic Marching Cubes by Deep Learning for Time-Varying Scalar Ensembles

Visualizing the uncertainty of ensemble simulations is challenging due to the large size and multivariate and temporal features of en-semble data sets. One popular approach to studying the uncertainty of ensembles is analyzing the positional uncertainty of the level sets. Probabilistic marching cubes is a technique that performs Monte Carlo sampling of multivariate Gaussian noise distributions for positional uncertainty visualization of level sets. However, the technique suffers from high computational time, making interactive visualization and analysis impossible to achieve. This paper introduces a deep-learning-based approach to learning the level-set uncertainty for two-dimensional ensemble data with a multivariate Gaussian noise assumption. We train the model using the first few time steps from time-varying ensemble data in our workflow. We demonstrate that our trained model accurately infers uncertainty in level sets for new time steps and is up to 170X faster than that of the original probabilistic model with serial computation and 10X faster than that of the original parallel computation.

Han, Mengjiao↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging Large Language Models for Understanding Fundamental Principles of Catalysis

Heterogeneous catalysis presents a distinct challenge for artificial intelligence (AI). Data sets are often small and inconsistently reported, catalyst representations are not standardized, and extracting fundamental knowledge requires integrating performance data, spectroscopic characterizations, and mechanistic models across multiple scales. Language offers a unifying representation across these modalities, making catalysis well suited for leveraging large language models (LLMs). By standardizing how catalytic data is represented, LLMs make dispersed experimental results more accessible to downstream statistical modeling. In this perspective, we focus our discussion around three opportunities where LLMs can significantly contribute to catalysis: (1) text to properties; (2) text to structure; and (3) text to mechanistic models. The discussion is followed by a perspective section on LLM-readiness of data, aligning LLM outputs with scientific correctness, and bridging lab-scale discovery to industrial deployment. Across each area, the most productive applications couple dispersed chemical knowledge with physics-grounded validation to produce verifiable hypotheses and actionable representations.

Catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning to Solve Large-Scale Security-Constrained Unit Commitment Problems

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) is a fundamental problem in power systems and electricity markets. In practical settings, SCUC is repeatedly solved via mixed-integer linear programming (MIP), sometimes multiple times per day, with only minor changes in input data. In this work, we propose a number of machine learning techniques to effectively extract information from previously solved instances in order to significantly improve the computational performance of MIP solvers when solving similar instances in the future. Based on statistical data, we predict redundant constraints in the formulation, good initial feasible solutions, and affine subspaces where the optimal solution is likely to lie, leading to a significant reduction in problem size. Computational results on a diverse set of realistic and large-scale instances show that using the proposed techniques, SCUC can be solved on average 4.3 times faster with optimality guarantees and 10.2 times faster without optimality guarantees, with no observed reduction in solution quality. Out-of-distribution experiments provide evidence that the method is somewhat robust against data-set shift. Summary of Contribution. The paper describes a novel computational method, based on a combination of mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and machine learning (ML), to solve a challenging and fundamental optimization problem in the energy sector. The method advances the state-of-the-art, not only for this particular problem, but also, more generally, in solving discrete optimization problems via ML. We expect that the techniques presented can be readily used by practitioners in the energy sector and adapted, by researchers in other fields, to other challenging operations research problems that are solved routinely.

Machine Learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Gigaparsec-scale Hydrodynamic Volume Reconstructed with Deep Learning

The next generation of spectroscopic surveys will map the large-scale structure of the Universe at high redshifts (2 ≤ z ≤ 5) using millions of quasar spectra, enabling major advances in constraining both the standard cosmological model and its extensions. Robust cosmological analyses of these data sets require numerical simulations that both cover gigaparsec volumes and resolve features on ∼10 kpc scales and smaller. However, running such large-volume, high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations is computationally prohibitive. We present a generative deep learning model that enhances a low-resolution, gigaparsec-scale (960 h −1 Mpc) hydrodynamic simulation using a smaller (80 h −1 Mpc) high-resolution input hydrodynamic simulation as training data. The resulting enhanced simulation reproduces the line-of-sight power spectrum to within ∼10% and the three-dimensional power spectrum at the ∼20% level at intermediate to small scales (k ≲ 2 h Mpc −1 ). Our method shows strong promise for producing realistic simulations for cosmological analyses with current surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and upcoming next-generation experiments, but further improvements are needed to accurately recover the large-scale modes. We publicly release the enhanced hydrodynamic simulation, along with a halo catalog from a companion N-body dark matter simulation to support the calibration of data analysis pipelines for these large-scale surveys.

Convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring origins for correlations between flow harmonics and transverse momentum in small collision systems

High statistics data sets from experiments at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) with small and large collision species have enabled a wealth of new flow measurements, including the event-by-event correlation between observables. One exciting such observable $ρ(v^2_n, [p_T])$ gauges the correlation between the mean transverse momentum of particles in an event and the various flow coefficients (v n ) in the same event [P. Bozek, Phys. Rev. C 93, 044908 (2016)]. Recently it has been proposed that very low multiplicity events may be sensitive to initial-state glasma correlations [G. Giacalone, B. Schenke, and C. Shen, Phys. Rev. Lett. 125, 192301 (2020)] rather than flow-related dynamics. We find utilizing the ip-jazma framework that the color domain explanation for the glasma results are incomplete. We then explore predictions from pythia8, and the version for including nuclear collisions called pythia-angantyr, which have only nonflow correlations, and from the ampt model which has both nonflow and flow-type correlations. We find that pythia-angantyr has nonflow contributions to $ρ(v^2_n, [p_T])$ in p + O, p + Pb, and O + O collisions that are positive at low multiplicity and comparable to the glasma correlations. It is striking that in pythia8 in p + p collisions there is actually a sign change from positive to negative $ρ(v^2_n, [p_T])$ as a function of multiplicity. The ampt results match the experimental data general trends in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC, except at low multiplicity where ampt has the opposite sign. In p + Pb collisions, ampt has the opposite sign from experimental data and we explore this within the context of parton geometry. Predictions for p + O, O + O, and Xe + Xe are also presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DIRAC current, upcoming and planned capabilities and technologies

DIRAC is the interware for building and operating large scale distributed computing systems. It is adopted by multiple collaborations from various scientific domains for implementing their computing models. DIRAC provides a framework and a rich set of ready-to-use services for Workload, Data and Production Management tasks of small, medium and large scientific communities having different computing requirements. The base functionality can be easily extended by custom components supporting community specific workflows. DIRAC is at the same time an aging project, and a new DiracX project is taking shape for replacing DIRAC in the long term. This contribution will highlight DIRAC’s current, upcoming and planned capabilities and technologies, and how the transition to DiracX will take place. Examples include, but are not limited to, adoption of security tokens and interactions with Identity Provider services, integration of Clouds and High Performance Computers, interface with Rucio, improved monitoring and deployment procedures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mock data sets for the Eboss and DESI Lyman-α forest surveys

We present a publicly-available code to generate sets of mock Lyman-α (Lyα) forest data that have realistic large-scale correlations including those due to the Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO). The primary purpose of these mocks is to test the analysis procedures of the Extended Baryon Oscillation Survey (eBOSS) and the Dark Energy Spectroscopy Instrument (DESI) surveys. The transmitted flux fraction, F(λ), of background quasars due to Lyα absorption in the intergalactic medium (IGM) is simulated using the Fluctuating Gunn-Petterson Approximation (FGPA) applied to Gaussian random fields produced through the use of fast Fourier transforms (FFT). The output includes the IGM-Lyα transmitted flux fraction along quasar lines of sight and a catalog of high-column-density systems appropriately placed at high-density regions of the IGM. This output serves as input to additional code that superimposes the IGM tranmission on realistic quasar spectra, adds absorption by high-column-density systems and metals, and simulates instrumental transmission and noise. Redshift space distortions (RSD) of the flux correlations are implemented by including the large-scale velocity-gradient field in the FGPA resulting in a correlation function of F(λ) that can be accurately predicted. One hundred realizations have been produced over the 14,000 deg 2 DESI survey footprint with 100 quasars per deg 2 . The analysis of these realizations shows that the correlations of F(λ) follows the prediction within the accuracy of eBOSS survey. Here, the most time-consuming part of the mock production occurs before application of the FGPA, and the existing pre-FGPA forests can be used to easily produce new mock sets with modified redshift-dependent bias parameters or observational conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

LSST Undergraduate Internships at Fermilab

Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab) plans to leverage the laboratory’s long tradition of hosting internships in high-energy physics and cosmology by setting up a mentoring laboratory program for undergraduate students to study data and model driven Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) science at the laboratory’s Center for Particle Astrophysics. The laboratory program will form an intern group that will explore the science of combining of LSST analysis using DC2 simulations and CosmoSIS modeling. Interns will be empowered to learn from each other while under the supervision of experienced cosmic frontier scientists, a model that has been successful in the laboratory setting. In addition, many of these undergraduate interns will form future candidate graduate student classes

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance assessment of ensembles of in situ workflows under resource constraints

Summary Scientific breakthroughs in biomolecular methods and improvements in hardware technology have shifted from a long‐running simulation to a large set of shorter simulations running simultaneously, called an ensemble. In an ensemble, simulations are usually coupled with analyses of data produced by the simulations. In situ methods can be used to analyze large volumes of data generated by scientific simulations at runtime (i.e., simulations and analyses are performed concurrently). In this work, we study the execution of ensemble‐based simulations paired with in situ analyses using in‐memory staging methods. Using an ensemble of molecular dynamics in situ workflows with multiple simulations and analyses, we first show that collecting traditional metrics such as makespan, instructions per cycle, memory usage, or cache miss ratio is not sufficient to characterize complex behaviors of ensembles. We propose a method to evaluate the performance of ensembles of workflows that captures multiple resource usage aspects: resource efficiency, resource allocation, and resource provisioning. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively distinguish the performance of different component placements in an ensemble with up to 32 ensemble members. By evaluating different co‐location scenarios, our proposed performance indicators demonstrate benefits of co‐locating simulation and coupled analyses within a compute node.

Do, Tu Mai Anh↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗