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At least 379 records · Page 21

Framework for Architecture Trade Study Using MBSE and Performance Simulation

Increasing complexity in modern systems as well as cost and schedule constraints require a new paradigm of system engineering to fulfill stakeholder needs. Challenges facing efficient trade studies include poor tool interoperability, lack of simulation coordination (design parameters) and requirements flowdown. A recent trend toward Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) includes flexible architecture definition, program documentation, requirements traceability and system engineering reuse. As a new domain MBSE still lacks governing standards and commonly accepted frameworks. This paper proposes a framework for efficient architecture definition using MBSE in conjunction with Domain Specific simulation to evaluate trade studies. A general framework is provided followed with a specific example including a method for designing a trade study, defining candidate architectures, planning simulations to fulfill requirements and finally a weighted decision analysis to optimize system objectives.

Ryan, Jessica↗

Rapid Diagnostics of Onboard Sequences

Keeping track of sequences onboard a spacecraft is challenging. When reviewing Event Verification Records (EVRs) of sequence executions on the Mars Exploration Rover (MER), operators often found themselves wondering which version of a named sequence the EVR corresponded to. The lack of this information drastically impacts the operators diagnostic capabilities as well as their situational awareness with respect to the commands the spacecraft has executed, since the EVRs do not provide argument values or explanatory comments. Having this information immediately available can be instrumental in diagnosing critical events and can significantly enhance the overall safety of the spacecraft. This software provides auditing capability that can eliminate that uncertainty while diagnosing critical conditions. Furthermore, the Restful interface provides a simple way for sequencing tools to automatically retrieve binary compiled sequence SCMFs (Space Command Message Files) on demand. It also enables developers to change the underlying database, while maintaining the same interface to the existing applications. The logging capabilities are also beneficial to operators when they are trying to recall how they solved a similar problem many days ago: this software enables automatic recovery of SCMF and RML (Robot Markup Language) sequence files directly from the command EVRs, eliminating the need for people to find and validate the corresponding sequences. To address the lack of auditing capability for sequences onboard a spacecraft during earlier missions, extensive logging support was added on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) sequencing server. This server is responsible for generating all MSL binary SCMFs from RML input sequences. The sequencing server logs every SCMF it generates into a MySQL database, as well as the high-level RML file and dictionary name inputs used to create the SCMF. The SCMF is then indexed by a hash value that is automatically included in all command EVRs by the onboard flight software. Second, both the binary SCMF result and the RML input file can be retrieved simply by specifying the hash to a Restful web interface. This interface enables command line tools as well as large sophisticated programs to download the SCMF and RMLs on-demand from the database, enabling a vast array of tools to be built on top of it. One such command line tool can retrieve and display RML files, or annotate a list of EVRs by interleaving them with the original sequence commands. This software has been integrated with the MSL sequencing pipeline where it will serve sequences useful in diagnostics, debugging, and situational awareness throughout the mission.

Starbird, Thomas W.↗

Stellar Laboratories: New GeV and Ge VI Oscillator Strengths and their Validation in the Hot White Dwarf RE0503-289

State-of-the-art spectral analysis of hot stars by means of non-LTE model-atmosphere techniques has arrived at a high level of sophistication. The analysis of high-resolution and high-S/N spectra, however, is strongly restricted by the lack of reliable atomic data for highly ionized species from intermediate-mass metals to trans-iron elements. Especially data for the latter has only been sparsely calculated. Many of their lines are identified in spectra of extremely hot, hydrogen-deficient post-AGB stars. A reliable determination of their abundances establishes crucial constraints for AGB nucleosynthesis simulations and, thus, for stellar evolutionary theory. Aims. In a previous analysis of the UV spectrum of RE 0503-289, spectral lines of highly ionized Ga, Ge, As, Se, Kr, Mo, Sn, Te, I, and Xe were identified. Individual abundance determinations are hampered by the lack of reliable oscillator strengths. Most of these identified lines stem from Ge V. In addition, we identified Ge VI lines for the first time. We calculated Ge V and Ge VI oscillator strengths in order to reproduce the observed spectrum. Methods. We newly calculated Ge V and Ge VI oscillator strengths to consider their radiative and collisional bound-bound transitions in detail in our non-LTE stellar-atmosphere models for the analysis of the Ge IV-VI spectrum exhibited in high-resolution and high-S/N FUV (FUSE) and UV (ORFEUS/BEFS, IUE) observations of RE 0503-289. Results. In the UV spectrum of RE 0503-289, we identify four Ge IV, 37 Ge V, and seven Ge VI lines. Most of these lines are identified for the first time in any star. We can reproduce almost all Ge IV, GeV, and Ge VI lines in the observed spectrum of RE 0503-289 (T(sub eff) = 70 kK, log g = 7.5) at log Ge = -3.8 +/- 0.3 (mass fraction, about 650 times solar). The Ge IV/V/VI ionization equilibrium, that is a very sensitive T(sub eff) indicator, is reproduced well. Conclusions. Reliable measurements and calculations of atomic data are a prerequisite for stellar-atmosphere modeling. Our oscillator-strength calculations have allowed, for the first time, Ge V and Ge VI lines to be successfully reproduced in a white dwarf s (RE 0503-289) spectrum and to determine its photospheric Ge abundance.

Rauch, T.↗

Assimilating Remote Sensing Observations of Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture for Wheat Yield Estimates: An Observing System Simulation Experiment

Observing system simulation experiments were used to investigate ensemble Bayesian state updating data assimilation of observations of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture (theta) for the purpose of improving single-season wheat yield estimates with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CropSim-Ceres model. Assimilation was conducted in an energy-limited environment and a water-limited environment. Modeling uncertainty was prescribed to weather inputs, soil parameters and initial conditions, and cultivar parameters and through perturbations to model state transition equations. The ensemble Kalman filter and the sequential importance resampling filter were tested for the ability to attenuate effects of these types of uncertainty on yield estimates. LAI and theta observations were synthesized according to characteristics of existing remote sensing data, and effects of observation error were tested. Results indicate that the potential for assimilation to improve end-of-season yield estimates is low. Limitations are due to a lack of root zone soil moisture information, error in LAI observations, and a lack of correlation between leaf and grain growth.

Nearing, Grey S.↗

Thermal Protection and Control

During all phases of a spacecraft's mission, a Thermal Protection System (TPS) is needed to protect the vehicle and structure from extreme temperatures and heating. When designing TPS, low weight and cost while ensuring the protection of the vehicle is highly desired. There are two main types of TPS, ablative and reusable. The Apollo missions needed ablators due to the high heat loads from lunar reentry. However, when the desire for a reusable space vehicle emerged, the resultant_ Space Shuttle program propelled a push for the development of reusable TPS. With the growth of reqsable TPS, the need for ablators declined, triggering a drop off of the ablator industry. As a result, the expertise was not heavily maintained within NASA or the industry. When the Orion Program initiated a few years back, a need. for an ablator reemerged. Yet, due to of the lack of industry capability, redeveloping the ablator material took several years and came at a high cost. As NASA looks towards the future with both the Orion and Commercial Crew Programs, a need to preserve reusable, ablative, and other TPS technologies is essential. Research of the different TPS materials alongside their properties, capabilities, and manufacturing process was performed, and the benefits of the materials were analyzed alongside the future of TPS. Knowledge of the different technologies has the ability to help us know what expertise to maintain and ensure a lack in the industry does not occur again.

Greene, Effie E.↗

A Novel Method for Characterizing Spacesuit Mobility through Metabolic Cost

Spacesuit mobility has historically been defined and characterized by a combination of range of motion and joint torque of the individual anatomical joints when performing isolated motions meant to drive that joint only in a given orthogonal plane. While this has been the standard approach for several decades, there are numerous shortcomings that suit designers and engineers would like to see rectified. First, the lack of a standardized method for collecting both range of motion and joint torque translates to many different test setups, procedures and methods of data analysis. Second, all of these previously used methods for data collection lack some degree of repeatability, even within the same test setup and the same conductor; in addition, attempts at higher fidelity data collection techniques require high overhead and cost with minimal improvement. Lastly, isolated motions in standard anatomical planes are not representative of real‐world tasks that a crewmember would be performing during an EVA, be it microgravity or surface exploration based. To address these shortcomings, options are being explored within the Space Suit and Crew Survival Systems Branch to ascertain the feasibility of an alternative approach to defining mobility - one that is more repeatable, lower overhead, and more tied to functional EVA tasks. This paper serves to document the first attempt at such an alternative option - one that looks at the metabolic energy‐cost of a spacesuit. In other words, can we objectively compare the mobility of a spacesuit by evaluating the metabolic cost of that suit to the wearer while performing a battery of functional EVA tasks?

McFarland, Shane↗

The Mineralogical and Chemical Case for Habitability at Yellowknife Bay, Gale Crater, Mars

Sediments of the Yellowknife Bay formation (Gale crater) include the Sheepbed member, a mudstone cut by light-toned veins. Two drill samples, John Klein and Cumberland, were collected and analyzed by the CheMin XRD/XRF instrument and the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) evolved gas and isotopic analysis suite of instruments. Drill cuttings were also analyzed by the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) for bulk composition. The CheMin XRD analysis shows that the mudstone contains basaltic minerals (Fe-forsterite, augite, pigeonite, plagioclase), as well as Fe-oxide/hydroxides, Fe-sulfides, amorphous materials, and trioctahedral phyllosilicates. SAM evolved gas analysis of higher-temperature OH matches the CheMin XRD estimate of ~20% clay minerals in the mudstone. The light-toned veins contain Ca-sulfates; anhydrite and bassanite are detected by XRD but gypsum is also indicated from Mastcam spectral mapping. These sulfates appear to be almost entirely restricted to late-diagenetic veins. The sulfate content of the mudstone matrix itself is lower than other sediments analyzed on Mars. The presence of phyllosilicates indicates that the activity of water was high during their formation and/or transport and deposition (should they have been detrital). Lack of chlorite places limits on the maximum temperature of alteration (likely <100 C). The presence of Ca-sulfates rather than Mg- or Fe-sulfates suggests that the pore water pH was near-neutral and of relatively low ionic strength (although x-ray amorphous Mg-and Fe- sulfates could be present and undetectable by CheMin). The presence of Fe and S in both reduced and oxidized states represents chemical disequilibria that could have been utilized by chemolithoautotrophic biota, if present. When compared to the nearby Rocknest sand shadow mineralogy or the normative mineralogy of Martian soil, both John Klein and Cumberland exhibit a near-absence of olivine and a surplus of magnetite (7-9% of the crystalline component). The magnetite is interpreted as an authigenic product formed when olivine was altered to phyllosilicate. Saponitization of olivine (a process analogous to serpentinization) could have produced H2 in situ. Indeed, early diagenetic hollow nodules ("minibowls") present in the Cumberland mudstone are interpreted by some as forming when gas bubbles accumulated in the unconsolidated mudstone. Lastly, all of these early diagenetic features appear to have been preserved with minimal alteration since their formation, as indicated by the ease of drilling (weak lithification, lack of cementing phases), the presence of 20-30% amorphous material, and the late-stage fracturing with emplacement of calcium sulfate veins and minibowl infills, where they were intersected by veins. A rough estimate of the minimum duration of the lacustrine environment is provided by the minimum thickness of the Sheepbed member. Given 1.5 meters, and applying a mean sediment accumulation rate for lacustrine strata of 1 m/1000 yrs yields a duration of 1,500 years. If the aqueous environments represented by overlying strata are considered, such as Gillespie Lake and Shaler, then this duration increases. The Sheepbed mudstone meets all the requirements of a habitable environment: Aqueous deposition at clement conditions of P, T, pH, Eh and ionic strength, plus the availability of sources of chemical energy.

Blake, David Frederick↗

How Cities Breathe: Ground-Referenced, Airborne Hyperspectral Imaging Precursor Measurements To Space-Based Monitoring

Methane's (CH4) large global warming potential (Shindell et al., 2012) and likely increasing future emissions due to global warming feedbacks emphasize its importance to anthropogenic greenhouse warming (IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, CH4 regulation has far greater near-term climate change mitigation potential versus carbon dioxide CO2, the other major anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) (Shindell et al., 2009). Uncertainties in CH4 budgets arise from the poor state of knowledge of CH4 sources - in part from a lack of sufficiently accurate assessments of the temporal and spatial emissions and controlling factors of highly variable anthropogenic and natural CH4 surface fluxes (IPCC, 2007) and the lack of global-scale (satellite) data at sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve sources. Many important methane (and other trace gases) sources arise from urban and mega-urban landscapes where anthropogenic activities are centered - most of humanity lives in urban areas. Studying these complex landscape tapestries is challenged by a wide and varied range of activities at small spatial scale, and difficulty in obtaining up-to-date landuse data in the developed world - a key desire of policy makers towards development of effective regulations. In the developing world, challenges are multiplied with additional political access challenges. As high spatial resolution satellite and airborne data has become available, activity mapping applications have blossomed - i.e., Google maps; however, tap a minute fraction of remote sensing capabilities due to limited (three band) spectral information. Next generation approaches that incorporate high spatial resolution hyperspectral and ultraspectral data will allow detangling of the highly heterogeneous usage megacity patterns by providing diagnostic identification of chemical composition from solids (refs) to gases (refs). To properly enable these next generation technologies for megacity include atmospheric radiative transfer modeling the complex and often aerosol laden, humid, urban microclimates, atmospheric transport and profile monitoring, spatial resolution, temporal cycles (diurnal and seasonal which involve interactions with the surrounding environment diurnal and seasonal cycles) and representative measurement approaches given traffic realities. Promising approaches incorporate contemporaneous airborne remote sensing and in situ measurements, nocturnal surface surveys, with ground station measurement

Leifer, Ira↗

A Novel Method for Characterizing Spacesuit Mobility Through Metabolic Cost

Historically, spacesuit mobility has been characterized by directly measuring both range of motion and joint torque of individual anatomic joints. The work detailed herein aims to improve on this method, which is often prone to uncertainly, lack of repeatability, and a general lack of applicability to real-world functional tasks. Specifically, the goal of this work is to characterize suited mobility performance by directly measuring the metabolic performance of the occupant. Pilot testing was conducted in 2013, employing three subjects performing a range of functional tasks in two different suits prototypes, the Mark III and Z-1. Cursory analysis of the results shows the approach has merit, with consistent performance trends toward one suit over the other. Forward work includes the need to look at more subjects, a refined task set, and another suit in a different mass/mobility regime to validate the approach.

McFarland, Shane M.↗

The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated.

Prices↗

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWS is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water-cycle communities are committed to working toward its success.

GDEWS↗

ldentifying Episodes of Earth Science Phenomena Using a Big-Data Technology

A significant portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- (or event-) based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. We have constructed a prototype Automated Event Service (AES) system that is used to methodically mine custom-defined events in the reanalysis data sets of atmospheric general circulation models. Our AES will enable researchers to specify their custom, numeric event criteria using a user-friendly web interface to search the reanalysis data sets. Moreover, we have included a social component to enable dynamic formation of collaboration groups for researchers to cooperate on event definitions of common interest and for the analysis of these events. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon (ES phenomenon). A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an El Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon, and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a duration (often finite) and an associated geo-location as a function of time; it's therefore an entity embedded in four-dimensional (4D) spatiotemporal space. Earth Science phenomena with the potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life often rivet the attention of researchers. But, broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger, such as land/sea breezes. Due to Earth System's intricate dynamics, we are continuously discovering novel ES phenomena. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events. This process usually begins by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, as mentioned previously, comprehensive records only exist for a very limited set of high-impact phenomena; aside from these, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. The reason for the lack of comprehensive records for most of the ES phenomena is mainly due to the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property. Thus they are not consistently tracked, monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack precise and/or commonly accepted criteria for definitions. Moreover, various Earth Science observations and data have accumulated to a previously unfathomable volume; NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data, which are steadily increasing. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. We have not only envisioned AES as an environment for identifying customdefined events but also aspired for it to be an interactive environment with quick turnaround time for revisions of query criteria and results, as well as a collaborative environment where geographically distributed experts may work together on the same phenomena. A Big Data technology is thus required for the realization of such a system. In the following, we first introduce the technology selected for AES in the next section. We then demonstrate the utility of AES using a use case, Blizzard, before we conclude.

Kuo, Kwo-Sen↗

Reply to Comment by Cole-dai Et Al. on "Climatic Impact of the Long-lasting Laki Eruption: Inapplicability of Mass-independent Sulfur Isotope Composition Measurements"

Here we respond to the comments by Cole-Dai et al. [2014] on our article Schmidt et al. [2012]. Specifically, in response to section 2 of their reply, we argued in Schmidt et al. [2012] that based on previously published estimates of the volatile release height during the 1783-1784 C.E. Laki eruption, the lack of a sulfur massindependent fractionation (MIF) anomaly is expected. In other words, no previous study on Laki ever argued that this eruption emitted SO2 into altitudes >13-15 km. In section 2.3, Cole-Dai et al. [2014] argue that the nonzero Δ33S value of their Laki sample 1 may be explained by a short-lived explosive phase at Laki during which volatiles reached the stratosphere. In Schmidt et al. [2012] in section 2, we argued in agreement with Cole-Dai et al. [2014] (section 3.1) that for a MIF anomaly to be preserved, the Laki volatiles would have had to be emitted in >20 km altitude. Our main point is that eruption column heights >20 km are unlikely based on the historical accounts and plume-rise modeling for the Laki eruption [Stothers et al., 1986; Woods, 1993; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. In Schmidt et al. [2012], we argued that to deduce a short-lived climatic impact of the Laki eruption based on the lack of a MIF anomaly and the length of the sulfate deposition in Greenland ice cores may be misleading because the climatic impact will outlast the radiative forcing of the Laki aerosol cloud. Cole-Dai et al. [2014] acknowledge the latter in their reply in section 4.2. We agreewith Cole-Dai et al. [2014] in that themagnitude and length of the climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784 depends on the altitude of the volatile release during the eruption (sections 2.3 and 4.2). However, even if we assumed that during Laki all sulfur dioxide (SO2) would have been released in the troposphere, then the aerosol cloud would still be present in the upper troposphere during March 1784, as is evident from independent model simulations of this "tropospheric-only" scenario [Stevenson et al., 2003]. We acknowledge that there is uncertainty on the volatile release height for Laki; however, it is worth considering that those climate model simulations that used an injection altitude between 9 km and 13 km for the Laki SO2 [Highwood and Stevenson, 2003; Oman et al., 2006a, 2006b; Schmidt et al., 2012] best match the observed temperature changes during summer of 1783 [Angell and Korshover, 1985; Brázdil et al., 2010; Briffa et al., 1998; D'Arrigo and Jacoby, 1999; Jacoby et al., 1999; Kington, 1988; Manley, 1974; Parker et al., 1992; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. Based on these model simulations, a climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784, albeit weaker than during the climactic phases of Laki, is expected (and our argument here does not exclude the role of natural variability in contributing to the cold winter of 1783-1784 as discussed in Schmidt et al. [2012]). Therefore, we continue to argue that for high-latitude eruptions such as Laki, the applicability of sulfur isotopic measurements to interpret the climatic relevance has yet to be demonstrated. Itmay transpire that the interpretation of MIF signals for the climate-relevance of an eruption is valid and unambiguous only for short-lived explosive eruptions in the tropics. In terms of the processes producing a MIF anomaly (section 3.3 in Cole-Dai et al. [2014]), the works by Hattori et al. [2013] and Ono et al. [2013] suggest that there are remaining issues not discussed by Cole-Dai et al. [2014], for instance, self-shielding of SO2 due to high column densities typical for eruptions of Pinatubo-scale and greater, and the preservation of the MIF signature in general.

general circulation model↗

Central Africa Energy: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Explore Flared Gas as an Energy Source Alternative to Biomass in Central Africa

Much of Central Africa's economy is centered on oil production. Oil deposits lie below vast amounts of compressed natural gas. The latter is often flared off during oil extraction due to a lack of the infrastructure needed to utilize it for productive energy generation. Though gas flaring is discouraged by many due to its contributions to greenhouse emissions, it represents a waste process and is rarely tracked or recorded in this region. In contrast to this energy waste, roughly 80% of Africa's population lacks access to electricity and in turn uses biomass such as wood for heat and light. In addition to the dangers incurred from collecting and using biomass, the practice commonly leads to ecological change through the acquisition of wood from forests surrounding urban areas. The objective of this project was to gain insight on domestic energy usage in Central Africa, specifically Angola, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo. This was done through an analysis of deforestation, an estimation of gas flared, and a suitability study for the infrastructure needed to realize the natural gas resources. The energy from potential natural gas production was compared to the energy equivalent of the biomass being harvested. A site suitability study for natural gas pipeline routes from flare sites to populous locations was conducted to assess the feasibility of utilizing natural gas for domestic energy needs. Analyses and results were shared with project partners, as well as this project's open source approach to assessing the energy sector. Ultimately, Africa's growth demands energy for its people, and natural gas is already being produced by the flourishing petroleum industry in numerous African countries. By utilizing this gas, Africa could reduce flaring, recuperate the financial and environmental loss that flaring accounts for, and unlock a plentiful domestic energy source for its people. II. Introduction Background Africa is home to numerous burgeoning economies; a significant number rely on oil production as their primary source of revenue. Relative to its size and population density, the continent has a wealth of natural resources, including oil and natural gas deposits. The exploration of these resources is not a new endeavor, but rather one that spans decades, up to a century in some places. Their resources, if realized, could provide a great means of economic and social mobility for the people of Africa. Currently, Africa represents about 12 % of the energy market, yet at the same time, consumes only 3 % of the world's energy (Kasekende 2009). The higher

Jones, Amber↗

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗

Control and Non-Payload Communications Generation 1 Prototype Radio Flight Test Report

Unmanned aircraft (UA) represent a new capability that will provide a variety of services in the Government (public) and commercial (civil) aviation sectors. The growth of this potential industry has not yet been realized because of the lack of a common understanding of what is required to safely operate Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the National Airspace System (UAS in the NAS). The desire and ability to fly UA is of increasing urgency. The application of UA to perform national security, defense, scientific, and emergency management are driving the critical need for less restrictive access by UA to the NAS. Existing Federal Aviation Regulations, procedures, and technologies do not allow routine UA access to the NAS. Access to the NAS is hampered by challenges such as the lack of an onboard pilot to see and avoid other aircraft; the ability of a single pilot or operator to control multiple UA; the reliance on command and control (C2) links; the altitudes, speeds, and duration at which the aircraft fly; and the wide variation in UA size and performance. NASA is working with other Government agencies to provide solutions that reduce technical barriers and make access to the NAS routine. This goal will be accomplished through system-level integration of key concepts, technologies, or procedures and through demonstrations of these integrated capabilities in an operationally relevant environment. This project provides an opportunity to transition the acquired empirical data and knowledge to the Federal Aviation Administration and other stakeholders to help them define the requirements for routine UA access to the NAS.Radio communications channels for UA are currently managed through exceptions and use either Department of Defense frequencies for line-of-sight (LOS) and satellite-based communications links, low-power LOS links in amateur bands, or unlicensed Industrial/Scientific/Medical (ISM) frequencies. None of these frequency bands are designated for safety and regularity of flight. Only recently has radiofrequency (RF) spectrum been allocated by the International Telecommunications Union specifically for commercial UA C2, LOS communication (L-Band: 960 to 1164 MHz, and C-Band: 5030 to 5091 MHz). The safe and efficient integration of UA into the NAS requires the use of protected RF spectrum allocations and a new data communications system that is both secure and scalable to accommodate the potential growth of these new aircraft. Data communications for UA-referred to as control and non-payload communications (CNPC)-will be used to exchange information between a UA and a ground station (GS) to ensure safe, reliable, and effective UA flight operation. The focus of this effort is on validating and allocating new RF spectrum and data link communications to enable civil UA integration into the NAS. Through a cost-sharing cooperative agreement with Rockwell Collins, Inc., the NASA Glenn Research Center is exploring and performing the necessary development steps to realize a prototype UA CNPC system. These activities include investigating signal waveforms and access techniques, developing representative CNPC radio hardware, and executing relevant testing and validation activities. There is no intent to manufacture the CNPC end product, rather the goals are to study, demonstrate, and validate a typical CNPC system that will allow safe and efficient communications within the L-Band and C-Band spectrum allocations. The system is addressing initial "seed" requirements from RTCA, Inc., Special Committee 203 (SC-203) and is on a path to Federal Aviation Administration certification. This report provides results from the flight testing campaign of the Rockwell Collins Generation 1 prototype radio, referred hereafter as the "radio." The radio sets operate within the 960- to 977-MHz frequency band with both air and ground radios using identical hardware. Flight tests involved one aircraft and one GS. Results include discussion of aircraft flight paths and associated radio performance.

Shalkhauser, Kurt A.↗

Computational Simulations of Convergent Nozzles for the AIAA 1st Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were completed for a series of convergent nozzles in participation of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) 1st Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop. The simulations were performed using the Wind-US flow solver. Discharge and thrust coefficients were computed for four axisymmetric nozzles with nozzle pressure ratios (NPR) ranging from 1.4 to 7.0. The computed discharge coefficients showed excellent agreement with available experimental data; the computed thrust coefficients captured trends observed in the experimental data, but over-predicted the thrust coefficient by 0.25 to 1.0 percent. Sonic lines were computed for cases with NPR >= 2.0 and agreed well with experimental data for NPR >= 2.5. Simulations were also performed for a 25 deg. conic nozzle bifurcated by a flat plate at NPR = 4.0. The jet plume shock structure was compared with and without the splitter plate to the experimental data. The Wind-US simulations predicted the shock structure well, though lack of grid resolution in the plume reduced the sharpness of the shock waves. Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) simulations and Detached Eddy Simulations (DES) were performed at NPR = 1.6 for the 25 deg conic nozzle with splitter plate. The simulations predicted vortex shedding from the trailing edge of the splitter plate. However, the vortices of URANS and DES solutions appeared to dissipate earlier than observed experimentally. It is believed that a lack of grid resolution in the region of the vortex shedding may have caused the vortices to break down too soon

DES↗

The Optical Green Valley Versus Mid-infrared Canyon in Compact Groups

Compact groups of galaxies provide conditions similar to those experienced by galaxies in the earlier universe. Recent work on compact groups has led to the discovery of a dearth of mid-infrared transition galaxies (MIRTGs) in Infrared Array Camera (3.6-8.0 micrometers) color space as well as at intermediate specific star formation rates. However, we find that in compact groups these MIRTGs have already transitioned to the optical ([g−r]) red sequence. We investigate the optical color-magnitude diagram (CMD) of 99 compact groups containing 348 galaxies and compare the optical CMD with mid-infrared (mid-IR) color space for compact group galaxies. Utilizing redshifts available from Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we identified new galaxy members for four groups. By combining optical and mid-IR data, we obtain information on both the dust and the stellar populations in compact group galaxies. We also compare with more isolated galaxies and galaxies in the Coma Cluster, which reveals that, similar to clusters, compact groups are dominated by optically red galaxies. While we find that compact group transition galaxies lie on the optical red sequence, LVL (Local Volume Legacy) + (plus) SINGS (Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey) mid-IR (infrared) transition galaxies span the range of optical colors. The dearth of mid-IR transition galaxies in compact groups may be due to a lack of moderately star-forming low mass galaxies; the relative lack of these galaxies could be due to their relatively small gravitational potential wells. This makes them more susceptible to this dynamic environment, thus causing them to more easily lose gas or be accreted by larger members.

X-rays: binaries↗