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At least 379 records · Page 21

Role of E × B Drift in Divertor Detachment Control via Boron Powder Injection on EAST

Here, the effects of B powder injection on plasma detachment about EAST discharge were studied by using SOLPS-ITER code package with the effects of E × B drifts considered. The simulation results show that plasma detachment occurs at the inner target in favourable toroidal magnetic field (B t ) direction at a relatively low B powder flow rate, one order of magnitude lower than that at the outer target. In a similar scenario with unfavourable B t , it is found that the detachment thresholds of B flow rate for both the inner and outer targets are close and of the same order as that for the outer target with favourable Bt. In favourable B t direction at B powder flow rate of 1.2 × 10 21 atoms/s, a localized, broadened high-density region is formed near the inner target benefitted by the injection location and the E × B drift, and a radiation-intensified zone, mostly contributed by B 1+ and B 2+ , occurs there. The E × B drift facilitates plasma detachment at the inner target and simultaneously amplifies the in–out divertor asymmetry. In addition, the simulation results with three different injection locations show that the injection from outer strike point leads to the lowest Z eff inside the separatrix and has an intermediate flow rate for detachment at the outer target, comparing with the X-point and upstream locations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The scoping, design, and plasma physics optimization of the Eos neutron source stellarator

On the path to a fusion pilot plant, Thea Energy plans to build Eos, a sub-breakeven, deuterium-deuterium, beam-target fusion, stellarator neutron source facility for producing tritium and other valuable radioisotopes. In this paper, a set of 1D plasma physics models are coupled and used to design the operating point of the facility and predict performance. At this foundational stage of the design, analytic and approximate models are sufficient to capture the leading-order effects, and fast enough to run in the inner loop of an optimizer. Higher-fidelity analyses will follow. Models of 1D profile-dependent neutral beam stopping, ion beam slowing down, beam-target fusion, electron-ion classical heat transfer, energy confinement (ISS04), beam pressure, beam heating of ions and electrons, beam-beam fusion fraction, and neutral beam injection and gyrotron heating electrical efficiencies are included. A numerical optimizer is used to determine the minimum required facility electric power to generate tritium at a given rate. A potentially advantageous regime is described in which modern precisely-quasisymmetric stellarators, new high-temperature superconductors, ITER-derived neutral beam injection, and new high-frequency gyrotrons enable a suitible target plasma with hot electrons, cold ions, peaked density and temperature profiles, and high beam-injected ion density. It appears possible at this time for a facility with a medium-scale and medium-strength stellarator whose required facility electric power is less than 40 MW to produce $2.5\times 10^{17}$ neutrons s -1 for the production of radioisotopes. With the addition of a tritium breeding blanket, such a facility could produce 0.2 grams d -1 or 70 grams yr -1 of tritium.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deriving iceberg ablation rates using an on-iceberg autonomous phase-sensitive radar (ApRES)

Abstract The increase in iceberg discharge into the polar oceans highlights the importance of understanding how quickly icebergs are deteriorating and where the resulting freshwater injection is occurring. Recent advances in quantifying iceberg deterioration through combinations of modeling, remote sensing and direct in situ measurements have successfully calculated overall ablation rates, and surface and sidewall ablation; however, in situ measurements of basal melt rates have been difficult to obtain. Radar has successfully measured iceberg thickness, but repeat measurements, which would capture a change in iceberg thickness with time, have not yet been collected. Here we test the applicability of using an on-iceberg autonomous phase-sensitive radar (ApRES) to quantify basal ablation rates of a large (~800 m long) non-tabular Arctic iceberg during an intensive 2019 summer field campaign in Sermilik Fjord, southeast Greenland. We find that ApRES can be used to measure basal ablation even over a short deployment period (10 d), and also provide a lower bound on sidewall melt. This study fills a critical gap in iceberg research and pushes the limits of field instrumentation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leakage From Coexisting Geologic Forcing and Injection‐Induced Pressurization: A Semi‐Analytical Solution for Multilayered Aquifers With Multiple Wells

Abstract Abnormal fluid pressures (above or below hydrostatic pressure) can develop and persist in sedimentary basins. The common occurrence of abnormal pressures may cause challenges for project permitting of geological carbon sequestration (GCS), particularly in reservoirs with pre‐injection overpressure. The leaky wells that may exist in some sedimentary basins can provide flow paths between deep brine aquifers and shallower freshwater aquifers. Pre‐injection relative overpressures can cause brine leakage through leaky wells even before any injection occurs. The tendency for flow through leaky wells is coupled with the process of pressure dissipation that occurs through aquitards. Specifically, with non‐zero permeability, aquitards can dissipate pressure over large areal extents and thereby reduce leakage rates through leaky wells. This study presents development of a semi‐analytical solution for hydraulic head and brine leakage in multilayered aquifer–aquitard systems with geologic pressure forcing. The geologic forcing that causes abnormal pressures in the multilayered system can coexist with any number of injection, extraction, and leaky wells that also affect fluid pressure. The semi‐analytical model is applied to explore how leakage through leaky wells varies as functions of pressurization rate, along with aquitard and leaky well properties in an overpressured multilayered system. The results show that although injection‐induced pressures can dissipate rapidly through suitably permeable aquitards, coexisting geologic forcing may create sustained rates of brine leakage into freshwater aquifers through leaky wells. In GCS, a very low‐permeability aquitard with high capillary entry pressure to free‐phase CO 2 is desired to serve as the caprock to prevent leakage of CO 2 from the storage reservoir. Nevertheless, the results from this study show that the brine leakage impact to shallow freshwater aquifers through leaky wells might substantially decrease with increasing aquitard permeability values, as long as small aquitard permeability and high capillary entry pressure serve to prevent CO 2 leakage.

Cihan, A.↗

Use of Digital Real-Time Simulation and Optimization to Identify Maximum Real Power Injection on Banshee Distribution Network

This study investigates the hosting capacity of the Banshee Distribution Network by optimizing the real power injection at carefully selected Distributed Energy Resource (DER) locations. The analysis is conducted within the framework of power system operational constraints, including bus voltage ranges, thermal line ratings, and transformer loading limits. A Python-based Genetic Algorithm (GA), implemented using the PyGAD library, is employed to iteratively identify the optimal power injection configuration that maximizes network utilization while preserving system reliability. The methodology integrates a real-time simulation environment using the Real-Time Digital Simulator (RTDS), allowing high-fidelity evaluation of power flow and voltage behavior under each proposed injection scenario. By coupling the optimization algorithm with real-time simulation feedback, this approach ensures that both static and dynamic constraints are enforced during the evaluation process. The GA leverages evolutionary operators such as selection, crossover, and mutation to navigate the nonlinear search space efficiently. The results of the study delineate the feasible hosting capacity at three targeted buses, reflecting maximum real power levels that can be injected without causing voltage violations, transformer overloading, or line congestion. These findings provide a decision- support tool for distribution planners and utilities aiming to integrate higher penetrations of DERs in existing infrastructure. Additionally, the work lays the foundation for extending such optimization techniques to multi-objective formulations, including economic dispatch and reactive power coordination, in future studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Use of Digital Real-Time Simulation and Optimization to Identify Maximum Real Power Injection on the Banshee Distribution Network: Preprint

This study investigates the hosting capacity of the Banshee Distribution Network by optimizing the real power injection at carefully selected Distributed Energy Resource (DER) locations. The analysis is conducted within the framework of power system operational constraints, including bus voltage ranges, thermal line ratings, and transformer loading limits. A Python-based Genetic Algorithm (GA), implemented using the PyGAD library, is employed to iteratively identify the optimal power injection configuration that maximizes network utilization while preserving system reliability. The methodology integrates a real-time simulation environment using the Real-Time Digital Simulator (RTDS), allowing high-fidelity evaluation of power flow and voltage behavior under each proposed injection scenario. By coupling the optimization algorithm with real-time simulation feedback, this approach ensures that both static and dynamic constraints are enforced during the evaluation process. The GA leverages evolutionary operators such as selection, crossover, and mutation to navigate the nonlinear search space efficiently. The results of the study delineate the feasible hosting capacity at three targeted buses, reflecting maximum real power levels that can be injected without causing voltage violations, transformer overloading, or line congestion. These findings provide a decision- support tool for distribution planners and utilities aiming to integrate higher penetrations of DERs in existing infrastructure. Additionally, the work lays the foundation for extending such optimization techniques to multi-objective formulations, including economic dispatch and reactive power coordination, in future studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling of transport in carrier-selective contacts in silicon heterojunction solar cells

High-performance silicon heterojunction (SHJ) solar cells use carrier-selective contact structures based on hydrogentated amorphous Si (a-Si:H) to maximize collection of photogenerated carriers. The high open circuit voltages observed experimentally in SHJ cells require that the carrier-selective contacts provide selectivity and passivation. However, a microscopic understanding of the dynamics of carrier transport through the a-Si layer is currently lacking. In this paper, we explicitly simulate the transport of holes across the a-Si:H(i) layer using a novel kinetic Monte Carlo approach. The hole-selective contact structure investigated in this paper uses p-type doped a-Si:H(p) and intrinsic a-Si:H(i) on an n-type crystalline silicon wafer, where the selectivity is provided by the a-Si:H(p) and the passivation is provided by the a-Si:H(i). However, in addition to the passivation provided by the a-Si:H(i), this layer also creates a potential barrier to the collection of photogenerated holes. There have been experimental studies in the literature that have suggested that multi-phonon processes are the main transport mechanism that assists in the transport of holes across the intrinsic a-Si:H barrier. Simulations presented here show that multi-phonon injection of holes into the a-Si:H(i) layer is the rate limiting step for transport across the a-Si:H(i) layer. Our results indicate that multi-phonon transport is strongly dependent on the electric field at the a-Si:H(i)/c-Si heterointerface as well. Transport simulations presented in this paper are consistent with experimental findings that multi-phonon processes limit transport across the a-Si:H(i) layer and are responsible for photocurrent suppression at the a-Si:H(i)/c-Si heterointerface when these processes are slower than the associated incident hole flux due to photo-excitation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Corrected Distortion model for Lagrangian spray simulation of transcritical fuel injection

In this work, we present a detailed implementation and validation of the droplet modeling framework proposed by Dahms and Oefelein (2016) into the engine commercial CFD software CONVERGE using the User Defined Function (UDF) interface. The model accounts for the nonlinear deformation and oscillation experienced by liquid spray droplet injected into high pressure and temperature. Lagrangian spray simulations of Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray A are performed. Model validation against standard experimental measurements of liquid velocity, vapor mixture fraction is conducted. To perform more rigorous model validation, new experimental measurements based on Diffused Back Illumination (DBI) are introduced. The new measurements are processed for Projected Liquid Volume (PLV), which offers as close as possible one-to-one model validation for liquid penetration while offering new insights into the spray physics. Comparison with a One-D model based on adiabatic mixing theory by Siebers (1999) and Desantes et al. (2007) are also conducted. Through these model validation exercises, it is shown that the new framework improves liquid-phase penetration predictions, following a tendency for enhanced evaporation, compared to the standard approach for both Reynolds Average Navier Stokes (RANS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES). Additionally, at the liquid length, maximum mixture fraction values predicted by the new approach are in good agreement those of an adiabatic mixing model. Qualitative analysis of the spray behaviors during the early stage of the injection process reveals that the proposed framework predicts significant increase in droplet evaporation rate with lower drop drag compared to the current standard approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Gasoline Compression Ignition on a Light-Duty Multi-Cylinder Engine Using a Wide Range of Fuel Reactivities and Heavy Fuel Stratification

Many research studies have focused on utilizing gasoline in modern compression ignition engines to reduce emissions and improve efficiency. Collectively, this combustion mode has become kn+own as gasoline compression ignition (GCI). One of the biggest challenges with GCI operation is maintaining control over the combustion process through the fuel injection strategy, such that the engine can be controlled on a cycle-by-cycle basis. Research studies have investigated a wide variety of GCI injection strategies (i.e., fuel stratification levels) to maintain control over the heat release rate while achieving low-temperature combustion (LTC). This work shows that at loads relevant to light-duty engines, partial fuel stratification (PFS) with gasoline provides very little controllability over the timing of combustion. On the contrary, heavy fuel stratification (HFS) provides very linear and pronounced control over the timing of combustion. However, the HFS strategy has challenges achieving LTC operation due to the air handling burdens associated with the high exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) rates that are required to reduce NOx emissions to near zero levels. In this work, a wide variety of gasoline fuel reactivities (octane numbers ranging from <40 to 87) were investigated to understand the engine performance and emissions of HFS-GCI operation on a multi-cylinder light-duty engine. Overall, the results indicate that over an EGR sweep at 4 bar brake mean effective pressure (BMEP), the gasoline fuels can achieve LTC operation with ultra-low NO x and soot emissions, while conventional diesel combustion (CDC) is unable to simultaneously achieve low NO x and soot. At 10 bar BMEP, all the gasoline fuels were compared to diesel, but using mixing controlled combustion and not LTC.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Gasoline Compression Ignition (GCI) on a Light-Duty Multi-Cylinder Engine Using a Wide Range of Fuel Reactivities and Heavy Fuel Stratification

Many research studies have focused on utilizing gasoline in modern compression ignition engines to reduce emissions and improve efficiency. Collectively, this combustion mode has become known as gasoline compression ignition (GCI). One of the biggest challenges with GCI operation is maintaining control over the combustion process through the fuel injection strategy, such that the engine can be controlled on a cycle-by-cycle basis. Research studies have investigated a wide variety of GCI injection strategies (i.e., fuel stratification levels) to maintain control over the heat release rate while achieving low temperature combustion (LTC). This work shows that at loads relevant to light-duty engines, partial fuel stratification (PFS) with gasoline provides very little controllability over the timing of combustion. On the contrary, heavy fuel stratification (HFS) provides very linear and pronounced control over the timing of combustion. However, the HFS strategy has challenges achieving LTC operation due to the air handling burdens associated with the high EGR rates that are required to reduce NOx emissions to near zero levels. In this work, a wide variety of gasoline fuel reactivities (octane numbers ranging from < 40 to 87) were investigated to understand the engine performance and emissions of HFS-GCI operation on a multi-cylinder light-duty engine. The results indicate that over an EGR sweep at 4 bar BMEP, the gasoline fuels can achieve LTC operation with ultra-low NOx and soot emissions, while conventional diesel combustion (CDC) is unable to simultaneously achieve low NOx and soot. At 10 bar BMEP, all the gasoline fuels were compared to diesel, but using mixing controlled combustion and not LTC.

Dempsey, Adam↗

High-speed fiber-based spectrometer for plasma Thomson scattering

Here we present a novel concept for a Thomson scattering diagnostic, based on a high-speed fiber optic spectrometer. The high-speed fiber optic spectrometer presented here translates a spectral measurement from the frequency domain into the time domain, thus requiring the use of only a single photodetector for spectral acquisition. The high temporal precision offered by the instrument gives rise to a number of advantages over traditional spectrometers, such as nearly background-free measurements and multiple uses of the same injected beam. Multiple uses of the same beam would enable greatly increased measurement rates, in the range of 10–100 MHz. The spectral range and resolution of the fiber spectrometer can be easily tailored to be optimized for the light source and experimental conditions by selecting different lengths of fiber, thus allowing for the proposed technique to exhibit high dynamic range when measuring many points simultaneously. Finally, due to the temporal separation of the background from the signal, these improvements are possible without the need for increased average input laser power.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Using Machine Learning to Predict Future Temperature Outputs in Geothermal Systems

Optimizing the power output, and economic value, of geothermal power plants over decades of operation is a major challenge in renewable energy. Optimizing the output requires the ability to predict the mass flow rates and the output temperatures of production wells based on the inputs of injection wells, as well as the time history of the system. Machine Learning (ML) that incorporates the known physics of geothermal systems is one possible solution to this challenge. In this work, we explore the ability of ML algorithms to predict future temperature outputs based on historical data. Considering the challenges with obtaining an empirical dataset from field data that is large enough to enable reliable ML, we propose an alternate approach: developing a high-fidelity reservoir model and using computational resources to build a dataset that enables ML. As a first step towards achieving this goal, we present preliminary results from applying ML to predict the temperature timeseries of simple modeled geothermal systems. We describe the application of relevant state-of-the-art ML approaches, such as the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), to extract temporal structures in the model data. We assess the accuracy of the forecasts we obtain, compare the selected approaches, and share the lessons learned that would inform the process of training and utilizing ML algorithms for larger and more complex geothermal systems.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Real-time wall conditioning and recycling modification utilizing boron and boron nitride powder injections into the Large Helical Device

Controlled particulate injections from the PPPL impurity powder dropper (IPD) into the Large Helical Device have demonstrated positive effects on the wall conditions on both an intra and inter-shot basis. Here injections over a range of densities, input powers, pulse lengths, heating schemes, injection quantities and main ion species show conclusive evidence of improvement to plasma wall conditions. Successful injections are confirmed by both spectroscopic measurements as well as real-time visible camera signals. In 7 s long plasmas the responses include a reduction in wall recycling as well as a reduction in native impurity content as observed over the course of several discharges. For plasmas longer than 40 s, improvements to the recycling rate and increased impurity control are observed in real time as a consequence of the extended particulate injections. These experiments demonstrate the extended applicability of this solid particulate conditioning technique to the control and maintenance of the plasma wall conditions. In addition they are an important initial step in the development of the real-time boronization technique as a supplement to standard conditioning scenarios.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Pressure Response Optimization of an Eddy Current-Driven Flyer Plate Valve for the ITER Shattered Pellet Injection System

One technique for mitigating disruptions in a tokamak is shattered pellet injection (SPI). SPI is a process in which a large solid pellet consisting of deuterium, neon, or argon is desublimated in a pipe gun barsrel and launched downstream. Pellets are shattered just before entering the plasma by an impact with an angled tube. Injection of these materials into the plasma radiates stored thermal energy, limits current decay rates, suppresses the generation of runaway electrons, and dissipates runaway electrons if necessary. A critical element of the SPI system is a fast-acting valve that releases high-pressure gas to dislodge and accelerate pellets directly, or indirectly via a mechanical punch. A prototype valve sized for the ITER SPI system has been designed and fabricated. A pulsed high-voltage power supply energizes the valve’s internal magnetic coil, which induces eddy currents in the adjacent flyer plate resulting in a repulsive force between the flyer plate and the coil. The flyer plate action lifts a valve seat, allowing high-pressure gas to flow from the valve plenum to the downstream (breech) location of the pellet or mechanical punch. All of the valve’s internal components are designed to operate in ITER-level static background magnetic fields. Here, a study was conducted to optimize the downstream pressure response for a range of valve sizes and operating pressures. In particular, the study analyzes the breech pressure response associated with varying plenum pressures as well as varying breech volumes. A computational fluid dynamics simulation was built in STAR-CCM+ and validated against data from laboratory experiments. The resulting simulation outputs, in the form of downstream responses for a variety of initial plenum pressures and breech volumes, will be used as a complement to experimental data to ensure the pressure pulse is suitable for pellet survivability. These data, combined with studies on pellet shear strength and shock response, will be applied to optimization of overall operating parameters of the ITER SPI system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Computational study on the impact of gasoline-ethanol blending on autoignition and soot/NO x emissions under low-load gasoline compression ignition conditions

Here, in the present work, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of a single-cylinder gasoline compression ignition (GCI) engine are performed to investigate the impact of gasoline-ethanol blending on autoignition, nitrogen oxide (NO x ), and soot emissions under low-load conditions. In order to represent the test gasoline (RD5-87), a four-component toluene primary reference fuel (TPRF)+ethanol (ETPRF) surrogate (with 10% ethanol by volume; E10) is employed. A three-dimensional (3D) engine CFD model employing finite-rate chemistry with a skeletal kinetic mechanism (including NO x sub-mechanism), adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), and hybrid method of moments (HMOM) is adopted to capture the in-cylinder combustion phenomena and soot/NO x emissions. The engine CFD model is validated against experimental data for three gasoline-ethanol blends: E10, E30 and E100, with varying ethanol content by volume. Model validation is carried out for a broad range of start-of-injection (SOI) timings (−21, −27, −36, and −45 crank angle degrees (°CA) after top-dead-center (aTDC)) with respect to in-cylinder pressure, heat release rate, combustion phasing, NO x and soot emissions. For relatively later injection timings (−21 and −27 °CA aTDC), E30 yields higher amount of soot than E10; while the trend reverses for early injection cases (−36 and −45 °CA aTDC ). On the other hand, E100 yields the lowest amount of soot among all fuels irrespective of SOI timing. Further, E10 shows a non-monotonic trend in soot emissions with SOI timing: SOI-36>SOI-45>SOI-21>SOI-27, while soot emissions from E30 exhibit monotonic decrease with advancing SOI timing. NO x emissions from various fuels follow a trend of E10>E30>E100. On the other hand, NO x emissions increase as SOI timing is advanced for all fuels, with an anomaly for E10 and E100 where NO x decreases when SOI is advanced beyond −36 °CA aTDC. Detailed analysis of the numerical results is performed to investigate the soot/NO x emission trends and elucidate the impact of chemical composition and physical properties on autoignition and emissions characteristics.

Computational fluid dynamics↗

Experimental Investigation of Cavitation-Induced Erosion Using X-Ray Imaging and Tomography

High injection pressure in diesel engines can lead to cavitation-induced erosion in injector nozzles. One important factor affecting the severity of erosion is the fuel and its properties. Traditionally, modeling and simulation studies have used single-component representations of fuels, but realistic fuels feature a multitude of components and can even include volatile additives such as water and alcohol. To provide realistic benchmarks and comparisons, experimental measurements quantifying erosion characteristics were made using ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) and two alternative diesel fuels (ADF). X-ray imaging and computed tomography were used to investigate cavitation-induced erosion onset and progression. Hard X-ray tomography revealed injector internal geometry, including details such as surface marks from the manufacturing process and erosion patterns from repeated injections. Erosion progression was measured using X-ray tomography and imaging performed between injections. The critical erosion site was found to be similar across different fuel blends, while the erosion rate and incubation time were sensitive to the fuel blend. The injector geometry and the erosion characteristics were also prepared for numerical model development and validation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Gas Production from Hot Water Circulation through Hydraulic Fractures in Methane Hydrate-Bearing Sediments: THC-Coupled Simulation of Production Mechanisms

Methane hydrates, widely found in permafrost and deep marine sediments, have great potential as a future energy 6 source. Conventional production schemes perform poorly for challenging hydrate reservoirs with low permeability. We propose an 7 efficient production scheme by combining hydraulic fracturing from horizontal wells and hot water circulation through fractures. A 8 fully coupled thermo-hydro-chemical (THC) model is developed to simulate the key physical processes during gas production from 9 a hydrate reservoir representative of typical geological settings in Shenhu, South China Sea. We found that the gas production 10 process has two distinct stages divided by thermal breakthrough: a relatively short prebreakthrough stage and a postbreakthrough 11 stage yielding stable gas production. Heat advection along and near the hydraulic fracture dominates the prebreakthrough stage, 12 whereas conduction-driven thermal recovery in the volume around fractures dominates the postbreakthrough stage. We identified 13 that the steady-state injection temperature has a strong effect on the performance of the proposed scheme while the fluid mass 14 circulation rate has a moderate impact beyond a threshold. The proposed scheme proves to be efficient and robust over a range of 15 reservoir conditions with respect to initial hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability, including their spatial heterogeneities, 16 thereby offering a promising solution for challenging reservoir conditions.

gas hydrate, fracture flow, gas production, numeri↗

Thermal and solubility effects on fault leakage during geologic carbon storage

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising method for reducing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. To safely deploy GCS in the field, it is necessary to assess risks and the effect of uncertainty on safe storage. The effect of uncertainty can be quantified using batches of simulations, but the high computational costs of high-resolution simulations necessitate use of reduced-order models (ROMs). Previous work involves ROMs for quantifying the risk of different potential leakage paths from storage reservoirs to shallow formations. However, previous studies on development of fault-leakage ROMs have limited numbers of uncertain parameters and do not explicitly examine impacts of CO 2 solubility and thermal stresses on fault reactivation, which can generate high-permeability pathways and compromise CO 2 storage. Here, we analyze an ensemble of simulations considering CO 2 leakage from a storage reservoir to a shallow aquifer through a fault while varying a number of uncertain parameters related to thermo-hydro-mechanical properties and CO 2 injection. We show the effects of solubility on: free-phase CO 2 -leakage rates, brine-leakage rates, and poroelastic fault destabilization. We find that CO 2 solubility is more important for estimating free-phase CO 2 -leakage rates compared to brine-leakage rates or poroelastic fault destabilization. We also find that thermal stresses and overpressures have different spatial distributions within the fault, indicating that the spatial variability of overpressures due to variation in flow parameters does not necessarily make the spatial variability of thermal stresses negligible. We suggest the use of the CO 2 phase-change path as a variable in future fault-leakage ROMs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗