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At least 379 records · Page 21

Surface Hydrology in Global River Basins in the Off-Line Land-Surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) System

Land surface hydrology for the Off-line Land-surface GEOS Analysis (OLGA) system and Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) Data Assimilation System (DAS) has been examined using a river routing model. The GEOS-1 DAS land-surface parameterization is very simple, using an energy balance prediction of surface temperature and prescribed soil water. OLGA uses near-surface atmospheric data from the GEOS-1 DAS to drive a more comprehensive parameterization of the land-surface physics. The two global systems are evaluated using a global river routing model. The river routing model uses climatologic surface runoff from each system to simulate the river discharge from global river basins, which can be compared to climatologic river discharge. Due to the soil hydrology, the OLGA system shows a general improvement in the simulation of river discharge compared to the GEOS-1 DAS. Snowmelt processes included in OLGA also have a positive effect on the annual cycle of river discharge and source runoff. Preliminary tests of a coupled land-atmosphere model indicate improvements to the hydrologic cycle compared to the uncoupled system. The river routing model has provided a useful tool in the evaluation of the GCM hydrologic cycle, and has helped quantify the influence of the more advanced land surface model.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Episodic Ocean-Induced CO2 Greenhouse on Mars: Implications for Fluvial Valley Formation

Pulses of CO2 injected into the martian atmosphere more recently than 4 Ga can place the atmosphere into a stable, higher pressure, warmer greenhouse state. One to two bar pulses of CO2 added to the atmosphere during the past several billion years are sufficient to raise global mean temperatures above 240 or 250 K for tens to hundreds of millions of years, even when accounting for CO2 condensation. Over time, the added CO2 is lost to carbonates, the atmosphere collapses and returns to its buffered state. A substantial amount of water could be transported during the greenhouse periods from the surface of a frozen body of water created by outflow channel discharges to higher elevations, despite global temperatures well below freezing. This water, precipitated as snow, could ultimately form fluvial valleys if deposition sites are associated with localized heat sources, such as magmatic intrusions or volcanoes. Thus, if outflow channel discharges were accompanied by the release of sufficient quantities of CO2, a limited hydrological cycle could have resulted that would have been capable of producing geomorphic change sufficient for fluvial erosion and valley formation. Glacial or periglacial landforms would also be a consequence of such a mechanism.

Gulick, V. C.↗

NASAs Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission and Opportunities For Applications Users

Water in the soil, both its amount (soil moisture) and its state (freeze/thaw), plays a key role in water and energy cycles, in weather and climate, and in the carbon cycle. Additionally, soil moisture touches upon human lives in a number of ways from the ravages of flooding to the needs for monitoring agricultural and hydrologic droughts. Because of their relevance to weather, climate, science, and society, accurate and timely measurements of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state with global coverage are critically important.

Mission↗

Computationally Tractable High-Fidelity Representation of Global Hydrology in ESMs via Machine Learning Approaches to Scale-Bridging

Focal Areas: This paper responds primarily to Focal Area 2, focusing on AI techniques to improve model fidelity. Science Challenge: “Hyperresolution” [1, 2] land surface models (LSMs) running at far higher resolution than typically employed in global Earth system models (ESMs) can help answer critical questions about the water cycle and associated ecosystem and biogeochemical feedbacks. Even with all foreseeable advances in computing power and efficient solver algorithms, however, employing hyperresolution LSMs inside ESMs for studies of long-term global climate is not computationally feasible. Instead, we argue for incorporating the fidelity of hyperresolution LSMs only where and when it is needed by using machine learning approaches to scale-bridging.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 20011. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. ln this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific. In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection.

Tao, W.-K.↗

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [NRC, 2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path [Twomey, 1977] and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage [e.g., Ackerman et al ., 2001]." Enhanced aerosol concentrations can also suppress warm rain processes by producing a narrow droplet spectrum that inhibits collision and coalescence processes [e.g., Squires and Twomey, 1961; Warner and Twomey, 1967; Warner, 1968; Rosenfeld, 19991. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect [Albrecht, 1989], is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. Table 1 summarizes the key observational studies identifying the microphysical properties, cloud characteristics, thermodynamics and dynamics associated with cloud systems from high-aerosol continental environments. For example, atmospheric aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, warm-rain process, cold-rain process, cloud-top height, the depth of the mixed phase region, and occurrence of lightning. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing an enhanced source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Hypotheses have been developed to explain the effect of urban regions on convection and precipitation [van den Heever and Cotton, 2007 and Shepherd, 2005]. Please see Tao et al. (2007) for more detailed description on aerosol impact on precipitation. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on Clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. In this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific, In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions with the low-level wind shear. Consequently, precipitation processes can be more vigorous. For example,, the evaporative cooling is more than two times stronger in the lower troposphere with high CCN for the Pacific case. Sensitivity tests also suggest that ice processes are crucial for suppressing precipitation in the Oklahoma case with high CCN.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Assimilated Hydrological Data at NASA GES DISC with Examples of Extreme Events

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy rainfall, heatwave, floods and droughts, and strong wind, can have devastating impacts on society. NASA and NOAA, based on independent analyses, recently announced that global surface temperatures in 2018 are the fourth warmest since 1880, behind only those of 2016, 2017, and 2015 (nasa.gov). Also in 2018, the United States experienced 14 billion-dollar disasters, ranking as the fourth highest total number of such events, behind only the years 2017, 2011, and 2016 (climate.gov). Many research studies have focused on acquiring observational and modeling data, to reveal linkages between increasing extreme events, global water and energy cycle, and global climate change. However, draw conclusions is still a challenge. NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center is one of twelve NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) data centers that process, archive, document, and distribute data from Earth science missions and related projects. The GES DISC hosts a wide range of remotely-sensed and model data and provides reliable and robust data access and services to users worldwide. This presentation provides a few examples of extreme event study that use Land Surface Model (LSM) assimilated, quality-controlled, and spatially and temporally consistent, hydrological data from the GES DISC. Also provided is a summary table for the hydrological data holdings, along with discussions of recent updates to data and data services.

Rui, Hualan↗

Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment(BASE-ASIA)

Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially in Africa, South America, and South East Asia. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass-burning processes, which influence the Earth-atmosphere energetics and hence impact both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some gases and aerosols can serve as active cloud condensation nuclei, which play important role in determining the net radiation budget, precipitation rate, and cloud lifetime. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); the reflectivity and emissivity of the land; and the stability of ecosystems and ecosystem biodiversity. Compared to Africa and South America, the climatology in South East Asia reveals quite different characteristics, showing distinct large-scale smoke and cloud sources and interaction regimes. The fresh water distribution in this region is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall; in fact, the predictability of the tropical climate system is much reduced during the boreal spring, which is associated with the peak season of biomass burning activities. Estimating the burning fuel (e.g., bark, branches, and wood), an important part of studying regional carbon cycle, may rely on utilizing a wide range of distinctive spectral features in the shortwave and longwave regions. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of smoke aerosols in this region requires continuous observations from satellites, aircraft, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. A new initiative will be proposed and discussed.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

Improving Assimilated Global Data Sets using TMI Rainfall and Columnar Moisture Observations

A global analysis that optimally combine observations from diverse sources with physical models of atmospheric and land processes can provide a comprehensive description of the climate systems. Currently, such data products contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. In this study, we show that assimilating precipitation and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the large-scale circulation produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS). In particular, assimilating TMI rain improves clouds and radiation in areas of active convection, as well as the latent heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW retrievals leads to reduced moisture biases and improved radiative fluxes in clear-sky regions. The improved analysis also improves short-range forecasts in the tropics. Ensemble forecasts initialized with the GEOS analysis incorporating TMI rain rates and TPW yield smaller biases in tropical precipitation forecasts beyond 1 day and better 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts up to 5 days. Results of this study demonstrate the potential of using high-quality space-borne rainfall and moisture observations to improve the quality of assimilated global data for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) 4d-Var and its Adjoint-based Tools

The fifth generation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Data Assimilation System (DAS) is a 3d-var system that uses the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system developed in collaboration with NCEP, and a general circulation model developed at Goddard, that includes the finite-volume hydrodynamics of GEOS-4 wrapped in the Earth System Modeling Framework and physical packages tuned to provide a reliable hydrological cycle for the integration of the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). This MERRA system is essentially complete and the next generation GEOS is under intense development. A prototype next generation system is now complete and has been producing preliminary results. This prototype system replaces the GSI-based Incremental Analysis Update procedure with a GSI-based 4d-var which uses the adjoint of the finite-volume hydrodynamics of GEOS-4 together with a vertical diffusing scheme for simplified physics. As part of this development we have kept the GEOS-5 IAU procedure as an option and have added the capability to experiment with a First Guess at the Appropriate Time (FGAT) procedure, thus allowing for at least three modes of running the data assimilation experiments. The prototype system is a large extension of GEOS-5 as it also includes various adjoint-based tools, namely, a forecast sensitivity tool, a singular vector tool, and an observation impact tool, that combines the model sensitivity tool with a GSI-based adjoint tool. These features bring the global data assimilation effort at Goddard up to date with technologies used in data assimilation systems at major meteorological centers elsewhere. Various aspects of the next generation GEOS will be discussed during the presentation at the Workshop, and preliminary results will illustrate the discussion.

Todling, Ricardo↗

Near‐Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub‐Arctic Watershed

Abstract Discontinuous permafrost environments exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity at scales too small to be driven by weather forcing or captured by Earth System Models. Here we analyze effects of observed spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation properties, hydrology, and thermal dynamics on ecosystem carbon dynamics in a watershed on the Seward Peninsula in Alaska. We apply a Morris global sensitivity analysis to a process‐rich, successfully tested terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), ecosys , varying soil properties, boundary conditions, and weather forcing. We show that landscape heterogeneity strongly impacts soil temperatures and vegetation composition. Snow depth, O‐horizon thickness, and near‐surface water content, which vary at scales of O(m), control the soil thermal regime more than an air temperature gradient corresponding to a 140 km north–south distance. High shrub productivity is simulated only in talik (perennially unfrozen) soils with high nitrogen availability. Through these effects on plant and permafrost dynamics, landscape heterogeneity impacts ecosystem productivity. Simulations with near‐surface taliks have higher microbial respiration (by 78.0 gC m −2 yr −1 ) and higher net primary productivity (by 104.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ) compared to runs with near‐surface permafrost, and simulations with high shrub productivity have outlying values of net carbon uptake. We explored the prediction uncertainty associated with ignoring observed landscape heterogeneity, and found that watershed net carbon uptake is 60% larger when heterogeneity is accounted for. Our results highlight the complexity inherent in discontinuous permafrost environments and demonstrate that missing representation of subgrid heterogeneity in TEMs could bias predictions of high‐latitude carbon budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A simulation of the winter and summer circulations with the NMC Global Spectral Model

The medium range forecast model of the NMC has been integrated to produce winter and summer simulations. It is found that the model climatology is similar to that of the observed atmosphere as well as climatologies of other general circulation models. The stationary and transient features of the model circulation are described, including both tropical and extratropical regions. The model hydrological cycle, radiative balance, and surface heat budget are discussed. Comparison with observations shows that the model is colder than that observed in the troposphere and cools in the lower stratosphere in the tropics and near the poles in both simulations. It is suggested that the upper branch of the Hadley cell is poorly simulated in the integrated model. The simulations are in reasonable agreement with the observations in sea level pressure, the structure of the tropospheric zonal jets, and the winter hemispheric stationary waves.

Kinter, J. L., III↗

Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA)

Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially those in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. However, the unique climatology of Southeast Asia is very different than that of Africa and South America, such that large-scale biomass burning causes smoke to interact extensively with clouds during the peak-burning season of March to April. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass burning processes. These gases influence the Earth-atmosphere system, impacting both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, which play an important role in determining cloud lifetime and precipitation, hence, altering the earth's radiation and water budget. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); land surface reflectivity and emissivity; as well as ecosystem biodiversity and stability. Analyses from satellite measurements reveal that smoke is frequently present solar (emitted thermal) radiation from clouds due to smoke aerosols can be reduced (enhanced) by as much as 100 (20) W/sq m over the month of March 2000. In addition, the reduction in cloud spectral reflectance at 670 run is large enough to lead to significant errors in retrieving cloud properties (e.g., optical thickness and effective radius) from satellite measurements. The fresh water distribution in this region is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall; in fact, the predictability of the tropical climate system is much reduced during the boreal spring. Estimating the burning fuel (e.g., bark, branches, and wood), an important part of studying regional carbon cycle, may rely on utilizing a wide range of distinctive spectral features in the shortwave and longwave regions. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of smoke aerosols in this region requires continuous observations from satellites, aircraft, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. A new initiative will be proposed and discussed.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

Carbon Cycle↗

Can the GPM IMERG Final Product Accurately Represent MCSs’ Precipitation Characteristics over the Central and Eastern United States?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in water and energy cycles as they produce heavy rainfall and modify the radiative profile in the tropics and midlatitudes. An accurate representation of MCSs’ rainfall is therefore crucial in understanding their impact on the climate system. The V06B Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals from Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) half-hourly precipitation final product is a useful tool to study the precipitation characteristics of MCSs because of its global coverage and fine spatiotemporal resolutions. However, errors and uncertainties in IMERG should be quantified before applying it to hydrology and climate applications. This study evaluates IMERG performance on capturing and detecting MCSs’ precipitation in the central and eastern United States during a 3-yr study period against the radar-based Stage IV product. The tracked MCSs are divided into four seasons and are analyzed separately for both datasets. IMERG shows a wet bias in total precipitation but a dry bias in hourly mean precipitation during all seasons due to the false classification of nonprecipitating pixels as precipitating. These false alarm events are possibly caused by evaporation under the cloud base or the misrepresentation of MCS cold anvil regions as precipitating clouds by the algorithm. IMERG agrees reasonably well with Stage IV in terms of the seasonal spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of MCSs precipitation. A relative humidity (RH)-based correction has been applied to the IMERG precipitation product, which helps reduce the number of false alarm pixels and improves the overall performance of IMERG with respect to Stage IV.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precipitation Measurement from Space: The Next Generation

During the coming decade, the internationally organized Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will take an important step in creating a global rain observing system from space based on an international fleet of satellites operated as a constellation of opportunity. One perspective for understanding the nature of the mission is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams beginning with very high caliber combined dual frequency rain-radar/passive microwave rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber rain-radiometer only retrievals, and then on to blends of the former datastreams with additional lower-caliber microwave- and infrared-based rain retrievals. Within the context of the now emerging global water & energy cycle (GWEC) research programs of a number of research agencies throughout the world, the GPM mission serves as a centerpiece space mission for improving our understanding of the Earth's water cycle from global scale and on down to regional scales and below. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in climate, e.g., global water cycle acceleration accompanying global warming. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the water cycle, it has not always been clear as to what constitutes a conclusive determination. This seminar presents an overview of the GPM Mission and how its overriding scientific objectives for climate, weather, and hydrology flow from the anticipated improvements that are being planned for the constellation-based measuring system, and how this mission may offer, over the long run, a more fundamental means to ascertain water cycle accelerations.

Smith, Eric A.↗