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DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed hybrid modeling methodology for building infiltration

Infiltration is responsible for one-third to one-half of the space conditioning load of a typical residential home, but the modeling of infiltration for building energy modeling is either represented by over-simplified equations or dependent on over-generalized rules of thumb. Here, this paper develops a physics-informed data-driven methodology for modeling infiltration using building-specific empirical measurements. The developed hybrid methodology combines machine-learning categorization and grey-box sub-modeling to improve the accuracy and generalization of commonly used grey-box infiltration models. The developed methodology excels at predicting infiltration by improving the ability to predict infiltration under unseen environmental conditions using machine learning algorithms with physical significance. In a case study conducted using the iUnit, a modular studio apartment experimental test facility located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we use empirical airtightness measurements to fit an infiltration model using the developed methodology. We find that the developed methodology can improve the overall model accuracy by 43% and improve extrapolation by 38%, compared with the model based on the common grey-box infiltration equation. We also notice that the selected features can improve the performance of a pure machine-learning model, indicating that our methodology identifies the features with the most physical significance to infiltration modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A hybrid robust-stochastic optimization approach for day-ahead scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system in restructured electricity market

Uncertainties arising from complicated natural and market environments pose great challenges for the efficient operation of cascaded hydroelectric systems. To overcome these challenges, this paper studies the day-ahead scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric systems in a restructured electricity market with the presence of uncertainties in electricity price and natural water inflow. To properly model the uncertainty, we consider the unique characteristics of these two types of uncertainties and capture them via the uncertainty set and stochastic scenarios, respectively. Further, a hybrid robust-stochastic optimization model is developed to simultaneously hedge against these two types of uncertainties, which is formulated as a large-scale non-convex optimization problem with mixed integer recourse. After introducing linearization of nonlinear terms, a tailored hybrid decomposition scheme combining Lagrangian relaxation and Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition is adopted to achieve efficient computation of the proposed model. Two real-world cases are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithms.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A deep learning hybrid predictive modeling (HPM) approach for estimating evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration

Climate change is reshaping vulnerable ecosystems, leading to uncertain effects on ecosystem dynamics, including evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ). However, accurate estimation of ET and R eco still remains challenging at sparsely monitored watersheds, where data and field instrumentation are limited. In this study, we developed a hybrid predictive modeling approach (HPM) that integrates eddy covariance measurements, physically based model simulation results, meteorological forcings, and remote-sensing datasets to estimate ET and R eco in high space–time resolution. HPM relies on a deep learning algorithm and long short-term memory (LSTM) and requires only air temperature, precipitation, radiation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and soil temperature (when available) as input variables. We tested and validated HPM estimation results in different climate regions and developed four use cases to demonstrate the applicability and variability of HPM at various FLUXNET sites and Rocky Mountain SNOTEL sites in Western North America. To test the limitations and performance of the HPM approach in mountainous watersheds, an expanded use case focused on the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. The results indicate HPM is capable of identifying complicated interactions among meteorological forcings, ET, and R eco variables, as well as providing reliable estimation of ET and R eco across relevant spatiotemporal scales, even in challenging mountainous systems. The study documents that HPM increases our capability to estimate ET and R eco and enhances process understanding at sparsely monitored watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

How Accurate Can Crystal Structure Predictions Be for High-Energy Molecular Crystals?

Molecular crystals have shallow potential energy landscapes, with multiple local minima separated by very small differences in total energy. Predicting molecular packing and molecular conformation in the crystal generally requires ab initio methods of high accuracy, especially when polymorphs are involved. We used dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT-D) to assess the capabilities of an evolutionary algorithm (EA) for the crystal structure prediction (CSP) of well-known but challenging high-energy molecular crystals (HMX, RDX, CL-20, and FOX-7). While providing the EA with the experimental conformation of the molecule quickly re-discovers the experimental packing, it is more realistic to start instead from a naïve, flat, or neutral initial conformation, which reflects the limited experimental knowledge we generally have in the computational design of molecular crystals. By doing so, and using fully flexible molecules in fully variable unit cells, we show that the experimental structures can be predicted in fewer than 20 generations. Nonetheless, one must be aware that some molecular crystals have naturally hindered evolutions, requiring as many attempts as there are space groups of interest to predict their structures, and some may require the accuracy of all-electron calculations to discriminate between closely ranked structures. To save resources in this computationally demanding process, we showed that a hybrid xTB/DFT-D approach could be considered in a subsequent study to push the limits of CSP beyond 200+ atoms and for cocrystals.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Analytics Solution to Improve Coal Power Plant Operations

This project focused on developing advanced methods for thermal performance monitoring of a coal-fueled power plant. The specific goal was to develop and demonstrate a new thermal performance monitoring approach using a hybrid model that integrates a physics-based heat balance model with a machine learning-based pattern recognition model. The hybrid model enables increased accuracy and scope of the thermal analysis and an improved ability to monitor and detect changes in plant operation. This new approach takes full advantage of the individual model capabilities and creates an important new set of capabilities not previously possible using the two types of models separately. Using the heat balance model, a rich set of derived parameters (virtual sensors) are calculated from the measured plant operating data at each time point. The combined measured and derived data values are used by machine learning algorithms to create pattern recognition models over the range of normal unit operation. To create the monitoring models, historical data from normal operation of the plant is first processed by the heat balance model to compute the derived parameter data. The result is a greatly expanded set of normal operating data that can be used as input to create the pattern recognition model. Once the models are calibrated for normal operation, the hybrid model is suitable for use in continuous online monitoring. During online monitoring, new plant operating data is processed first by the heat balance model and then by the pattern recognition model. Results from the pattern recognition model quantify the deviation of each measured or derived parameter from its expected value in normal operation. The hybrid models can detect abnormal changes in plant operating data with very high accuracy and sensitivity. When abnormal behavior is detected, alerts are generated automatically for evaluation by the plant monitoring staff. The new hybrid solution product was developed and verified in the performance of the project. The hybrid solution was tested first in a simulation environment that mimicked the plant data systems and infrastructure used by U.S. power generating plants and utilities. The hybrid solution was then deployed for real-time, online monitoring of an operating coal-fueled power plant at a field test site. Field testing demonstrated that all hybrid solution development objectives were accomplished. The project work was based on combining the capabilities of two existing software products to create the new hybrid solution product. One of these was the existing MapEx® heat balance product and the other was the existing SureSense® advanced pattern recognition product. Each of these separate products was assessed to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 9 at the start of the effort. The hybrid solution product was assessed to be at a TRL of 2 at the start of the project based on early feasibility work by the project team. At completion of the field testing performed in the project, the hybrid solution product was assessed to be at a TRL of 7. The project team expects that the hybrid solution product will be deployed commercially and will achieve a TRL of 9 within one year after completion of the project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamic non-ideality and disorder heterogeneity in actinide silicate solid solutions

Non-ideal thermodynamics of solid solutions can greatly impact materials degradation behavior. We have investigated an actinide silicate solid solution system (USiO 4 –ThSiO 4 ), demonstrating that thermodynamic non-ideality follows a distinctive, atomic-scale disordering process, which is usually considered as a random distribution. Neutron total scattering implemented by pair distribution function analysis confirmed a random distribution model for U and Th in first three coordination shells; however, a machine-learning algorithm suggested heterogeneous U and Th clusters at nanoscale (~2 nm). The local disorder and nanosized heterogeneous is an example of the non-ideality of mixing that has an electronic origin. Partial covalency from the U/Th 5f–O 2p hybridization promotes electron transfer during mixing and leads to local polyhedral distortions. The electronic origin accounts for the strong non-ideality in thermodynamic parameters that extends the stability field of the actinide silicates in nature and under typical nuclear waste repository conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fidelity Analysis of Complex Large-Scale Simulation Models of PEs (MARS) in Future Power Grids

With the proliferation of power electronic (PE)-based resources in the electric grid, there have been numerous different kinds of simulation models developed and studied to understand their dynamic behavior. Study of PE-based resources using each simulation model has its own distinct advantages and disadvantages. Therefore it is very important to carefully select the appropriate model for the evaluation of the PE-based resources. In this paper, one such effort is made to analyze the different types of models in the case of a multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS). The MARS integrates a hybrid photovoltaic (PV)-energy storage system (ESS) plant to high-voltage direct current (HVdc) system and transmission alternating current (ac) grid. The dynamic models are evaluated under different test cases varying the short-circuit ratio (SCR) and control algorithms. Recommendations are provided on the equipment study needs based on the analysis completed.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali↗

DOE OSTI2022

Charge singlets and orbital-selective charge density wave transitions

The possibility of “orbitally selective Mott transitions” within a multiband Hubbard model, in which one orbital with large on-site electron-electron repulsion U 1 is insulating and another orbital, to which it is hybridized, with small U –1 , is metallic, is a problem of long-standing debate and investigation. In this paper we study an analogous phenomenon, the coexistence of metallic and insulating bands in a system of orbitals with different electron-phonon coupling. To this end, we examine two variants of the bilayer Holstein model: a uniform bilayer and a “Holstein-metal interface” where the electron-phonon coupling, λ, is zero in the “metallic” layer. In the uniform bilayer Holstein model, charge density wave (CDW) order dominates at small interlayer hybridization t 3 , but decreases and eventually vanishes as t 3 grows, providing a charge analog of singlet (spin liquid) physics. In the interface case, we show that CDW order penetrates into the metal layer and forms long-range CDW order at an intermediate ratio of inter- to intralayer hopping strengths, 1.4 ≲ t 3 /t ≲ 3.4. Furthermore, this is consistent with the occurrence of an “orbitally selective CDW” regime at weak t3 in which the layer with λ 1 ≠ 0 exhibits long-range charge order, but the “metallic layer” with λ –1 = 0, to which it is hybridized, does not.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Standard Library Plant Controller Model Specification for a Grid-Forming Hybrid Control Inverter-Based Resource (REPCGFM_C1)

This document describes a standard library plant controller model to interface with the grid-forming hybrid control inverter-based resource (IBR) model. The initial version of model specification was jointly developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Tesla Energy, and EPRI, and it was revised multiple times later to incorporate suggestions from WECC MVS members. Tesla Energy provided main control algorithms to support the development of this model specification. This standard library model is developed to help the utility industry better understand the GFM technology. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment matures and improves, standard library models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

RESOLVING THE ELECTROCHEMICAL EQUATIONS OF A SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL FOR USE IN TRANSIENT SIMULATION AND INTEGRATION INTO CYBER-PHYSICAL SYSTEMS

A major challenge with complex cyber-physical systems stems from long model computational time that creates a mismatch between the model system and the physical system. The numerical modeling of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) presents particular challenges due to the highly coupled nature of the underlying equations and the multiphysics needed to fully resolve their behavior during a transient event. To this end current approaches revolve around splitting the computational efforts into resolving temperature effects and resolving electrochemical effects. Current methods employed for the transient simulation of an SOFC for implementation in the Hybrid Performance (HyPer) facility cyberphysical plant at the National Energy Technology Laboratory reveal a distinct need for accelerated results with a high degree of stability. To this aim, an investigation into the computational time for the code reveals that the underlying electrochemical algorithm takes an order of magnitude more time than its thermal counterpart and has a tendency to vary in terms of iteration time and as such a rework of the underlying system is proposed. The primary method for accelerated electrochemical algorithm solutions is to employ higher order root finding recipes for the resolution of the highly coupled electrochemical equations. This is done with the intention to reduce the overall number of subiterations necessary for resolving voltage, current density, and species concentration, properties of the fuel cell that are all directly coupled and require nested iterative approaches. The overall objective of this approach is an order of magnitude reduction in calculation time without sacrificing stability and increasing accuracy. Specific approaches involve using both bounded and unbounded techniques, such as the False Position method and the Secant method (or if applicable Newton-Raphson) respectively, the drawbacks being slower convergence for False Position and instability for the Secant or Newton-Raphson methods. Current preliminary results on simplified versions of the parent functions involved for electrochemical calculations indicate a reduction in computational steps by a factor of two for the secant method and a factor of three for Newton-Raphson. When implemented into new modified electrochemical algorithms, the results indicate a possible order of magnitude reduction in calculation time.

Arias, Jesus↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact-Driven Sampling Strategies for Hybrid Attack Graphs

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) have a large input space, with discrete and continuous elements across multiple layers. Hybrid Attack Graph (HAG) provide a flexible and efficient approach to generate attack sequences for a CPS. Analysis and testing of large-scale HAGs are prohibitively costly. We propose a dimension reduction via property-preserving multi-layer graph sampling algorithms. Existing property-preserving graph sampling approaches generate a representative subgraph of an original large-sized graph while preserving the key properties, such as node and edge distribution, clustering coefficients, and betweenness. On the other hand, we propose impact-driven sampling strategies to transform the input data to a lower-dimensional representation while retaining key properties of the data.

Subasi, Omer↗

DOE OSTI2026

Classical-Quantum Algorithm for Solving Stochastic Programs

Stochastic programming provides a rigorous mathematical framework for making decisions under uncertainty in a risk-aware manner. Two-stage stochastic programming is, perhaps, the simplest form of this framework. Here the first-stage variables represent decisions that must be made "here and now" in the face of uncertainty, while the second-stage variables are decisions made after uncertain events. However, the broad adoption of stochastic programming has been hindered by computational challenges caused by the two-stage stochastic programming formulation which requires solving an ensemble of optimization problems. Using quantum amplitude estimation (QAE), quantum computers have shown the theoretic ability to compute expectations with Monte-Carlo methods with quadratically fewer samples than classical methods. In this work, we present a quantum algorithm for computing the expectation term using QAE for given first-stage decisions. Further, we detail methods of computing gradient information from the quantum calculation enabling the application of classical gradient-based optimization techniques. The result is a classical-quantum hybrid method of solving two-stage stochastic programs. These techniques are demonstrated with computational experiments based an engineering optimization problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep Learning-Based Queue-Aware Eco-Approach and Departure System for Plug-In Hybrid Electric Buses at Signalized Intersections: A Simulation Study

Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) has been considered as a promising eco-driving strategy for vehicles traveling in an urban environment, where information such as signal phase and timing (SPaT) and geometric intersection description is well utilized to guide vehicles passing through intersections in the most energy-efficient manner. Previous studies formulated the optimal trajectory planning problem as finding the shortest path on a graphical model. While this method is effective in terms of energy saving, its computation efficiency can be further enhanced by adopting machine learning techniques. In this paper, we propose an innovative deep learning-based queue-aware eco-approach and departure (DLQ-EAD) system for a plug-in hybrid electric bus (PHEB), which is able to provide an online optimal trajectory for the vehicle considering both the downstream traffic condition (i.e. traffic lights, queues) and the vehicle powertrain efficiency. Based on optimal solutions obtained from the graph-based trajectory planning algorithm (GTPA), a deep neural network (DNN) is developed to learn the optimal vehicle speed for the next time step given its current state. It is demonstrated that the trained DNN can provide energy-efficient trajectories with high computational efficiency and high flexibility adopting to dynamic changes in the surrounding environment. To address the impact of downstream traffic, a queue prediction model is further developed using data from radars and connected vehicles (CVs), as well as signal timing data from SPaT messages. A comprehensive simulation study in the microscopic traffic modeling software PTV VISSIM shows that the proposed DLQ-EAD can achieve 18.7%-24.0% energy efficiency improvements for a single PHEB on various traffic congestion levels. The proposed queue prediction model can be of practical significance even at low penetration rates of CVs. Specifically, additional energy savings of 2.0%-8.2% can be further achieved with 20% vehicles in the network.

Ye, Fei↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field–potential finite-difference time-domain (FiPo FDTD) technique for computational electromagnetics

Modeling light–matter interactions at the nanoscale requires accurate handling of coupled quantum and electromagnetic systems. This coupling requires information about the electric scalar potential Φ and the magnetic vector potential A, which are not typically calculated in standard computational electromagnetics implementations. To that end, we have developed a field–potential finite-difference time-domain (FiPo FDTD) algorithm, which solves a set of first-order equations for Φ and A alongside equations for the electric and magnetic fields E and H. The FiPo Basic code is essentially conventional FDTD, but with an added module that calculates the potentials. The FiPo Hybrid code self-consistently calculates both fields and potentials and is particularly suitable for coupling with quantum electronic transport solvers because it can be sourced by the potentials themselves. To terminate the domain and mimic infinite space, we have derived and implemented a convolutional perfectly matched layer (CPML) absorbing boundary condition for FiPo FDTD whose performance is on par with state-of-the-art CPMLs for standard FDTD. We present FiPo simulation results on several example systems.

Avazpour, L. [University of Wisconsin-Madison, WI ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Circuit Learning for Quantum Metrology

Quantum sensing is an important application of emerging quantum technologies. We explore whether a hybrid system of quantum sensors and quantum circuits can surpass the classical limit of sensing. In particular, we use optimization techniques to search for encoder and decoder circuits that scalably improve sensitivity under given application and noise characteristics. Furthermore, our approach uses a variational algorithm that can learn a quantum sensing circuit based on platform-specific control capacity, noise, and signal distribution. The quantum circuit is composed of an encoder which prepares the optimal sensing state and a decoder which gives an output distribution containing information of the signal. We optimize the full circuit to maximize the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR). Furthermore, this learning algorithm can be run on real hardware scalably by using the "parameter-shift" rule which enables gradient evaluation on noisy quantum circuits, avoiding the exponential cost of quantum system simulation. We demonstrate up to 13.12x SNR improvement over existing fixed protocol (GHZ), and 3.19x Classical Fisher Information (CFI) improvement over the classical limit on 15 qubits using IBM quantum computer. More notably, our algorithm overcomes the decreasing performance of existing entanglement-based protocols with increased system sizes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metrics for Intercomparison of Remapping Algorithms (MIRA) protocol applied to Earth system models

Abstract. Strongly coupled nonlinear phenomena such as those described by Earth system models (ESMs) are composed of multiple component models with independent mesh topologies and scalable numerical solvers. A common operation in ESMs is to remap or interpolate component solution fields defined on their computational mesh to another mesh with a different combinatorial structure and decomposition, e.g., from the atmosphere to the ocean, during the temporal integration of the coupled system. Several remapping schemes are currently in use or available for ESMs. However, a unified approach to compare the properties of these different schemes has not been attempted previously. We present a rigorous methodology for the evaluation and intercomparison of remapping methods through an independently implemented suite of metrics that measure the ability of a method to adhere to constraints such as grid independence, monotonicity, global conservation, and local extrema or feature preservation. A comprehensive set of numerical evaluations is conducted based on a progression of scalar fields from idealized and smooth to more general climate data with strong discontinuities and strict bounds. We examine four remapping algorithms with distinct design approaches, namely ESMF Regrid (Hill et al., 2004), TempestRemap (Ullrich and Taylor, 2015), generalized moving least squares (GMLS) (Trask and Kuberry, 2020) with post-processing filters, and WLS-ENOR (Li et al., 2020). By repeated iterative application of the high-order remapping methods to the test fields, we verify the accuracy of each scheme in terms of their observed convergence order for smooth data and determine the bounded error propagation using challenging, realistic field data on both uniform and regionally refined mesh cases. In addition to retaining high-order accuracy under idealized conditions, the methods also demonstrate robust remapping performance when dealing with non-smooth data. There is a failure to maintain monotonicity in the traditional L2-minimization approaches used in ESMF and TempestRemap, in contrast to stable recovery through nonlinear filters used in both meshless GMLS and hybrid mesh-based WLS-ENOR schemes. Local feature preservation analysis indicates that high-order methods perform better than low-order dissipative schemes for all test cases. The behavior of these remappers remains consistent when applied on regionally refined meshes, indicating mesh-invariant implementations. The MIRA intercomparison protocol proposed in this paper and the detailed comparison of the four algorithms demonstrate that the new schemes, namely GMLS and WLS-ENOR, are competitive compared to standard conservative minimization methods requiring computation of mesh intersections. The work presented in this paper provides a foundation that can be extended to include complex field definitions, realistic mesh topologies, and spectral element discretizations, thereby allowing for a more complete analysis of production-ready remapping packages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intelligent Prediction of States in Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar power plant (MARS)

In power electronics, prediction of states may be used for identification of faults, determination of aging of components, identification of bad data measurements, among others. Prediction of states in power electronics have broadly been based on: (a) physics-based models, (b) data-driven models, and (c) hybrid models. In this paper, data-driven approaches are presented for intelligent prediction of states in multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) and compared. The data-set needed to train the data-driven models based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms has been identified and the trained models are evaluated under different extrapolated normal and abnormal operating conditions. The AI algorithms include nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous model (NARX), spiking neural networks (SNN), and decision tree. The models are compared and contrasted. The best model (NARX) is evaluated under different normal and abnormal operating conditions that have indicated accurate prediction.

Debnath, Suman↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ultrafast radiographic imaging and tracking: An overview of instruments, methods, data, and applications

Ultrafast radiographic imaging and tracking (U-RadIT) use state-of-the-art ionizing particle and light sources to experimentally study sub-nanosecond transients or dynamic processes in physics, chemistry, biology, geology, materials science and other fields. These processes are fundamental to modern technologies and applications, such as nuclear fusion energy, advanced manufacturing, communication, and green transportation, which often involve one mole or more atoms and elementary particles, and thus are challenging to compute by using the first principles of quantum physics or other forward models. One of the central problems in U-RadIT is to optimize information yield through, e.g. high-luminosity X-ray and particle sources, efficient imaging and tracking detectors, novel methods to collect data, and large-bandwidth online and offline data processing, regulated by the underlying physics, statistics, and computing power. We review and highlight recent progress in: (a.) Detectors such as high-speed complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) cameras, hybrid pixelated array detectors integrated with Timepix4 and other application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and digital photon detectors; (b.) U-RadIT modalities such as dynamic phase contrast imaging, dynamic diffractive imaging, and four-dimensional (4D) particle tracking; (c.) U-RadIT data and algorithms such as neural networks and machine learning, and (d.) Applications in ultrafast dynamic material science using XFELs, synchrotrons and laser-driven sources. Hardware-centric approaches to U-RadIT optimization are constrained by detector material properties, low signal-to-noise ratio, high cost and long development cycles of critical hardware components such as ASICs. Interpretation of experimental data, including comparisons with forward models, is frequently hindered by sparse measurements, model and measurement uncertainties, and noise. Alternatively, U-RadIT make increasing use of data science and machine learning algorithms, including experimental implementations of compressed sensing. Machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches, refined by physics and materials information, may also contribute significantly to data interpretation, uncertainty quantification and U-RadIT optimization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗