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At least 379 records · Page 21

Viral Dynamic Models During COVID‐19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?

Mathematical models have been used for about 30 years to improve our understanding of virus-host interaction, in particular during chronic infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these models have been used to provide insights into the natural history of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, optimize antiviral treatment strategies, understand factors associated with transmission, and optimize surveillance systems. The impact of modeling has been accelerated by the availability of unprecedented multidimensional immune data from animal and human systems, which enhanced partnerships between experimentalists and theorists and led to exciting new modeling and statistical developments. In this mini review, we examine the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss the main insights provided by mathematical models of viral dynamics at the different stages of the outbreak. Although we focus on respiratory infection, we also consider the new areas for development in anticipation of future acute infections from new or reemerging pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dual-Use Space Technology Transfer Conference and Exhibition, Volume 1

This document contains papers presented at the Dual-Use Space Technology Transfer Conference and Exhibition held at the Johnson Space Center February 1-3, 1994. Possible technology transfers covered during the conference were in the areas of information access; innovative microwave and optical applications; materials and structures; marketing and barriers; intelligent systems; human factors and habitation; communications and data systems; business process and technology transfer; software engineering; biotechnology and advanced bioinstrumentation; communications signal processing and analysis; new ways of doing business; medical care; applications derived from control center data systems; human performance evaluation; technology transfer methods; mathematics, modeling, and simulation; propulsion; software analysis and decision tools systems/processes in human support technology; networks, control centers, and distributed systems; power; rapid development perception and vision technologies; integrated vehicle health management; automation technologies; advanced avionics; ans robotics technologies. More than 77 papers, 20 presentations, and 20 exhibits covering various disciplines were presented b experts from NASA, universities, and industry.

Kumar Krishen↗

Dual-Use Space Technology Transfer Conference and Exhibition

This is the second volume of papers presented at the Dual-Use Space Technology Transfer Conference and Exhibition held at the Johnson Space Center February 1-3, 1994. Possible technology transfers covered during the conference were in the areas of information access; innovative microwave and optical applications; materials and structures; marketing and barriers; intelligent systems; human factors and habitation; communications and data systems; business process and technology transfer; software engineering; biotechnology and advanced bioinstrumentation; communications signal processing and analysis; medical care; applications derived from control center data systems; human performance evaluation; technology transfer methods; mathematics, modeling, and simulation; propulsion; software analysis and decision tools; systems/processes in human support technology; networks, control centers, and distributed systems; power; rapid development; perception and vision technologies; integrated vehicle health management; automation technologies; advanced avionics; and robotics technologies.

Krishen, Kumar↗

New Developments in NASA's Rodent Research Hardware for Conducting Long Duration Biomedical and Basic Research in Space

Animal models, particularly rodents, are the foundation of pre-clinical research to understand human diseases and evaluate new therapeutics, and play a key role in advancing biomedical discoveries both on Earth and in space. The National Research Councils Decadal survey emphasized the importance of expanding NASA's life sciences research to perform long duration, rodent experiments on the International Space Station (ISS) to study effects of the space environment on the musculoskeletal and neurological systems of mice as model organisms of human health and disease, particularly in areas of muscle atrophy, bone loss, and fracture healing. To accomplish this objective, flight hardware, operations, and science capabilities were developed at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) to enhance science return for both commercial (CASIS) and government-sponsored rodent research. The Rodent Research Project at NASA ARC has pioneered a new research capability on the International Space Station and has progressed toward translating research to the ISS utilizing commercial rockets, collaborating with academia and science industry, while training crewmembers to assist in performing research on orbit. The Rodent Research Habitat provides a living environment for animals on ISS according to standard animal welfare requirements, and daily health checks can be performed using the habitats camera system. Results from these studies contribute to the science community via both the primary investigation and banked samples that are shared in publicly available data repository such as GeneLab. Following each flight, through the Biospecimen Sharing Program (BSP), numerous tissues and thousands of samples will be harvested, and distributed from the Space Life and Physical Sciences (SLPS) to Principal Investigators (PIs) through the Ames Life Science Data Archive (ALSDA). Every completed mission sets a foundation to build and design greater complexity into future research and answer questions about common human diseases. Together, the hardware improvements (enrichment, telemetry sensors, cameras), new capabilities (live animal return), and experience that the Rodent Research team has gained working with principal investigator teams and ISS crew to conduct complex experiments on orbit are expanding capabilities for long duration rodent research on the ISS to achieve both basic science and biomedical research objectives.

Shirazi, Yasaman↗

CPAS Parachute Testing, Model Development, & Verification

Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) is the human rated parachute system for the Orion vehicle used during re-entry. Similar to Apollo parachute design. Human rating requires additional system redundancy. A Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) project responsible for: Design; Development testing; Performance modeling; Fabrication; Qualification; Delivery

Romero, Leah M.↗

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗

Modeling the human as a controller in a multitask environment

Modeling the human as a controller of slowly responding systems with preview is considered. Along with control tasks, discrete noncontrol tasks occur at irregular intervals. In multitask situations such as these, it has been observed that humans tend to apply piecewise constant controls. It is believed that the magnitude of controls and the durations for which they remain constant are dependent directly on the system bandwidth, preview distance, complexity of the trajectory to be followed, and nature of the noncontrol tasks. A simple heuristic model of human control behavior in this situation is presented. The results of a simulation study, whose purpose was determination of the sensitivity of the model to its parameters, are discussed.

Govindaraj, T.↗

A Cognitive-System Model for En Route Air Traffic Management

NASA Ames Research Center has been engaged in the development of advanced air traffic management technologies whose basic form is cognitive aiding systems for air traffic controller and flight deck operations. In the design and evaluation of such systems the dynamic interaction between the airborne aiding system and the ground-based aiding systems forms a critical coupling for control. The human operator is an integral control element in the system and the optimal integration of human decision and performance parameters with those of the automation aiding systems offers a significant challenge to cognitive engineering. This paper presents a study in full mission simulation and the development of a predictive computational model of human performance. We have found that this combination of methodologies provide a powerful design-aiding process. We have extended the computational model Man Machine Integrated Design and Analysis System (N13DAS) to include representation of multiple cognitive agents (both human operators and intelligent aiding systems), operating aircraft airline operations centers and air traffic control centers in the evolving airspace. The demands of this application require the representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, and coordinating action/intention with cooperative scheduling of goals and actions in a potentially unpredictable world of operations. The operator's activity structures have been developed to include prioritization and interruption of multiple parallel activities among multiple operators, to provide for anticipation (knowledge of the intention and action of remote operators), and to respond to failures of the system and other operators in the system in situation-specific paradigms. We have exercised this model in a multi-air traffic sector scenario with potential conflict among aircraft at and across sector boundaries. We have modeled the control situation as a multiple closed loop system. The inner and outer loop alerting structure of air traffic management has many implications that need to be investigated to assure adequate design. First, there are control and stability factors implicit in the design. As the inner loop response time approaches that of the outer loop, system stability may be compromised in that controllers may be solving a problem the nature of which has already been changed by pilot action. Second, information exchange and information presentation for both air and ground must be designed to complement as opposed to compete with each other. Third, the level of individual and shared awareness in trajectory modification and flight conformance needs to be defined. Fourth, the level of required awareness and performance impact of mixed fleet operations and failed-mode recovery must be explored.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

Cognitive engineering models: A prerequisite to the design of human-computer interaction in complex dynamic systems

This chapter examines a class of human-computer interaction applications, specifically the design of human-computer interaction for the operators of complex systems. Such systems include space systems (e.g., manned systems such as the Shuttle or space station, and unmanned systems such as NASA scientific satellites), aviation systems (e.g., the flight deck of 'glass cockpit' airplanes or air traffic control) and industrial systems (e.g., power plants, telephone networks, and sophisticated, e.g., 'lights out,' manufacturing facilities). The main body of human-computer interaction (HCI) research complements but does not directly address the primary issues involved in human-computer interaction design for operators of complex systems. Interfaces to complex systems are somewhat special. The 'user' in such systems - i.e., the human operator responsible for safe and effective system operation - is highly skilled, someone who in human-machine systems engineering is sometimes characterized as 'well trained, well motivated'. The 'job' or task context is paramount and, thus, human-computer interaction is subordinate to human job interaction. The design of human interaction with complex systems, i.e., the design of human job interaction, is sometimes called cognitive engineering.

Mitchell, Christine M.↗

The B737 MAX 8 Accidents as Operational Experiences With Automation Transparency

Automation transparency has come into prominence in the human-machine systems literature, with researchers offering definitions, models, design frameworks, and empirical findings. However, missing from the literature are reflections on the actual operational experiences of human crews interacting with intelligent automation conceived from multiple transparency perspectives. The Boeing 737 MAX 8 accidents present a tragic case of a catastrophic failure of automation transparency. We explore this case with an emphasis on extracting design and regulatory insights for the nuclear power and other safety-critical domains.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A Synthetic Vision Preliminary Integrated Safety Analysis

This report documents efforts to analyze a sample of aviation safety programs, using the LMI-developed integrated safety analysis tool to determine the change in system risk resulting from Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) technology implementation. Specifically, we have worked to modify existing system safety tools to address the safety impact of synthetic vision (SV) technology. Safety metrics include reliability, availability, and resultant hazard. This analysis of SV technology is intended to be part of a larger effort to develop a model that is capable of "providing further support to the product design and development team as additional information becomes available". The reliability analysis portion of the effort is complete and is fully documented in this report. The simulation analysis is still underway; it will be documented in a subsequent report. The specific goal of this effort is to apply the integrated safety analysis to SV technology. This report also contains a brief discussion of data necessary to expand the human performance capability of the model, as well as a discussion of human behavior and its implications for system risk assessment in this modeling environment.

Hemm, Robert↗

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

Intelligent Systems and Advanced User Interfaces for Design, Operation, and Maintenance of Command Management Systems

Historically Command Management Systems (CMS) have been large, expensive, spacecraft-specific software systems that were costly to build, operate, and maintain. Current and emerging hardware, software, and user interface technologies may offer an opportunity to facilitate the initial formulation and design of a spacecraft-specific CMS as well as a to develop a more generic or a set of core components for CMS systems. Current MOC (mission operations center) hardware and software include Unix workstations, the C/C++ and Java programming languages, and X and Java window interfaces representations. This configuration provides the power and flexibility to support sophisticated systems and intelligent user interfaces that exploit state-of-the-art technologies in human-machine systems engineering, decision making, artificial intelligence, and software engineering. One of the goals of this research is to explore the extent to which technologies developed in the research laboratory can be productively applied in a complex system such as spacecraft command management. Initial examination of some of the issues in CMS design and operation suggests that application of technologies such as intelligent planning, case-based reasoning, design and analysis tools from a human-machine systems engineering point of view (e.g., operator and designer models) and human-computer interaction tools, (e.g., graphics, visualization, and animation), may provide significant savings in the design, operation, and maintenance of a spacecraft-specific CMS as well as continuity for CMS design and development across spacecraft with varying needs. The savings in this case is in software reuse at all stages of the software engineering process.

Mitchell, Christine M.↗

NAIRAS Version 3 Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation Validation: Comparisons to RaD-X Measurements

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) model predicts dosimetric and radiative flux quantities for assessing human radiation exposure levels and radiation effects on flight electronic systems from the surface of the Earth to deep space. NAIRAS version 3 includes many updates and improvements to the model. In this paper, NAIRAS version 3 dosimetric quantities are compared to observations of the atmospheric radiation environment taken during the Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X) flight campaign. The RaD-X campaign consisted of a high-altitude balloon flight, with altitudes up to 40 km, and four coordinated aircraft flights covering an altitude range from 6-20 km. The RaD-X measurement data from the different flight platforms were acquired in September 2015 and at nearly the same vertical cutoff rigidity (3-4 GV). High quality, flight-averaged measurement data were provided at seven altitudes, which correspond to regions of fundamentally different radiation transport and collisional interaction physics. The NAIRAS model agrees with the RaD-X measurements to within 30% over the entire altitude domain of the flight campaign (0-40 km), which is within the measurement uncertainty.

Christopher J Mertens↗

Intelligent Entity Behavior Within Synthetic Environments

This paper describes some elements in the development of realistic performance and behavior in the synthetic entities (players) which support Modeling and Simulation (M&S) applications, particularly military training. Modern human-in-the-loop (virtual) training systems incorporate sophisticated synthetic environments, which provide: 1. The operational environment, including, for example, terrain databases; 2. Physical entity parameters which define performance in engineered systems, such as aircraft aerodynamics; 3. Platform/system characteristics such as acoustic, IR and radar signatures; 4. Behavioral entity parameters which define interactive performance, including knowledge/reasoning about terrain, tactics; and, 5. Doctrine, which combines knowledge and tactics into behavior rule sets. The resolution and fidelity of these model/database elements can vary substantially, but as synthetic environments are designed to be compose able, attributes may easily be added (e.g., adding a new radar to an aircraft) or enhanced (e.g. Amending or replacing missile seeker head/ Electronic Counter Measures (ECM) models to improve the realism of their interaction). To a human in the loop with synthetic entities, their observed veridicality is assessed via engagement responses (e.g. effect of countermeasures upon a closing missile), as seen on systems displays, and visual (image) behavior. The realism of visual models in a simulation (level of detail as well as motion fidelity) remains a challenge in realistic articulation of elements such as vehicle antennae and turrets, or, with human figures; posture, joint articulation, response to uneven ground. Currently the adequacy of visual representation is more dependant upon the quality and resolution of the physical models driving those entities than graphics processing power per Se. Synthetic entities in M&S applications traditionally have represented engineered systems (e.g. aircraft) with human-in-the-loop performance characteristics (e.g. visual acuity) included in the system behavioral specification. As well, performance affecting human parameters such as experience level, fatigue and stress are coming into wider use (via AI approaches) to incorporate more uncertainty as to response type as well as performance (e.g. Where an opposing entity might go and what it might do, as well as how well it might perform).

Kruk, R. V.↗

Preliminary Evaluation of Joint Electricity-Hydrogen Concept of Operations

An initial thermal power dispatch (TPD) concept of operations was evaluated that couples a nuclear power plant to a nearby hydrogen production plant. GSE Systems’ generic pressurized water reactor full-scope simulator was modified with a TPD model comprised of a thermal power extraction and delivery system. A prototype human-system interface (HSI) was developed to interact with the TPD model and allow participants to execute the basic operating scenarios for normal operations. Four retired operators performed the evaluation, and due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, the original in-person experimental design was restructured to support a remote participator evaluation using a web meeting platform. Data from operator feedback, observations from the research team, and quantitative survey responses revealed that the initial TPD concept of operations is feasible. The operators were comfortable with the engineered system and HSI and could manage it without adverse impacts to reactor power, plant safety, or equipment. Findings are discussed in terms of both the TPD system design and HSI performance.

human factors↗