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DOE OSTI2023

Real-time attribution of the influence of climate change on extreme weather events: a storyline case study of Hurricane Ian rainfall

Abstract As the Earth continues to warm due to human greenhouse gas emissions, there is a growing need to efficiently communicate the effect that global warming has on individual extreme weather events. Using a storyline approach, we present a rapid attribution of the increase in rainfall over Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022 due to climate change as a case study. We find that extreme accumulated rainfall amounts associated with Hurricane Ian increased by 18%, far in excess of what would be expected by Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. The study offers a blueprint for rapid operational climate change attribution statements about extreme storms and other very rare weather events.

Reed, Kevin A. (ORCID:0000000337417080)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of surface temperature to oceanic forcing via q-Flux Green’s function experiments. Part III: asymmetric response to warming and cooling

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination towards cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

Liu, Fukai↗

NASA NTRS2005

Overview of Aerosol Distribution

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with clouds and precipitation is still lacking despite decades of research. Understanding the global aerosol system is fundamental for progress in climate change and hydrological cycle research. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 years ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing threat of global warming, we need an array of satellites and field measurements coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week) and variable chemical composition. A new generation of satellites provides exciting opportunities to measure the global distribution of aerosols, distinguishing natural from anthropogenic aerosol and measuring their interaction with clouds and climate. I shall discuss these topics and application of the data to air quality monitoring.

Kaufman, Yoram↗

NASA NTRS2006

Satellite Observations of the Effect of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols on Clouds

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with clouds and precipitation is still lacking despite decades of research. Understanding the global aerosol system is critical to quantifying anthropogenic climate change, to determine climate sensitivity from observations and to understand the hydrological cycle. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 years ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing threat of global warming, we need an array of satellites and field measurements coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week) and variable chemical composition. A new generation of satellites provides exciting opportunities to measure the global distribution of aerosols, distinguishing natural from anthropogenic aerosol and measuring their interaction with clouds and climate.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Premonsoon Aerosol Characterization and Radiative Effects Over the Indo-Gangetic Plains: Implications for Regional Climate Warming

The Himalayas have a profound effect on the South Asian climate and the regional hydrological cycle, as it forms a barrier for the strong monsoon winds and serves as an elevated heat source, thus controlling the onset and distribution of precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon. Recent studies have suggested that radiative heating by absorbing aerosols, such as dust and black carbon over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and slopes of the Himalayas, may significantly accelerate the seasonal warming of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HKHT) and influence the subsequent evolution of the summer monsoon. This paper presents a detailed characterization of aerosols over the IGP and their radiative effects during the premonsoon season (April-May-June) when dust transport constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading, using ground radiometric and spaceborne observations. During the dust-laden period, there is a strong response of surface shortwave flux to aerosol absorption indicated by the diurnally averaged forcing efficiency of -70 W/sq m per unit optical depth. The simulated aerosol single-scattering albedo, constrained by surface flux and aerosol measurements, is estimated to be 0.89+/- 0.01 (at approx.550 nm) with diurnal mean surface and top-of-atmosphere forcing values ranging from -11 to -79.8 W/sq m and +1.4 to +12 W/sq m, respectively, for the premonsoon period. The model-simulated solar heating rate profile peaks in the lower troposphere with enhanced heating penetrating into the middle troposphere (5-6 km), caused by vertically extended aerosols over the IGP with peak altitude of approx.5 km as indicated by spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization observations. On a long-term climate scale, our analysis, on the basis of microwave satellite measurements of tropospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2007, indicates accelerated annual mean warming rates found over the Himalayan-Hindu Kush region (0.21 C/decade+/-0.08 C/decade) and underscores the potential role of enhanced aerosol solar absorption in the maximum warming localized over the western Himalayas (0.26 C/decade f 0.09 C/decade) that significantly exceed the entire HKHT and global warming rates. We believe the accelerated warming rates reported here are critical to both the South Asian summer monsoon and hydro-glaciological resource variability in the Himalayan-Hindu Kush snowpack and therefore to the densely populated downstream regions.

Gautam, Ritesh↗

DOE OSTI2024

Summer Convective Precipitation Changes Over the Great Lakes Region Under a Warming Scenario

To understand future summer precipitation changes over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), we performed an ensemble of regional climate simulations through the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach. We found that different types of convective precipitation respond differently to the PGW signal. Isolated deep convection (IDC), usually concentrated in the southern domain, shows an increase in precipitation to the north of the GLR. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), usually concentrated upwind of the GLR, shift to the downwind region with increased precipitation. Thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are found to increase across almost the entire studied domain, creating a potential environment more favorable for stronger convection systems and less favorable for weaker ones. Meanwhile, changes in the lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) show a strong correlation with variations in convective precipitation, highlighting the significance of these thermodynamic factors in controlling precipitation over the domain. Our results indicate that the decrease in LCL and LCF in areas with increased convective precipitation is mainly due to increased atmospheric moisture. In response to the prescribed warming perturbation, MCSs occur more frequently downwind, while localized IDCs exhibit more intense rain rates, longer durations, and larger rainfall area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study

A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.

Chen, Baode↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats.

Tucker, Compton J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds

In 2018 and 2019, heatwaves set all-time temperature records around the world and caused adverse effects on human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and infrastructure. Often, severe impacts relate to the joint spatial and temporal extent of the heatwaves, but most research so far focuses either on spatial or temporal attributes of heatwaves. Furthermore, sensitivity of heatwaves characteristics to the choice of the heatwave thresholds in a warming climate are rarely discussed. Here, we analyze the largest spatiotemporal moderate heatwaves—that is, three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days—in simulations of global climate models. We use three different hazard thresholds to define a hot day: fixed thresholds (time-invariant climatological thresholds), seasonally moving thresholds based on changes in the summer means, and fully moving thresholds (hot days defined relative to the future climatology). We find a substantial increase of spatiotemporally contiguous moderate heatwaves with global warming using fixed thresholds, whereas changes for the other two hazard thresholds are much less pronounced. In particular, no or very little changes in the overall magnitude, spatial extent, and duration are detected when heatwaves are defined relative to the future climatology using a temporally fully moving threshold. This suggests a dominant contribution of thermodynamic compared to dynamic effects in global climate model simulations. The similarity between seasonally moving and fully moving thresholds indicates that seasonal mean warming alone can explain large parts of the warming of extremes. The strong sensitivity of simulated future heatwaves to hazard thresholds should be considered in the projections of potential future heat-related impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1996

Assessment of Precision in Temperatures from the Microwave Sounding Units

Monitoring the earth system has traditionally focused on measurements at the earth's surface because this is where we live and perform our most obvious life sustaining functions. In just the past few decades, however, efforts have been initiated to assess the character of the atmosphere above the surface. Regular upper-air measurements by balloon ascents in scattered locations began in the 1940's and observations from satellites generally began in 1979. The upper air is important in the climate context because changes in these higher levels may offer more discernible relationships to such phenomena as global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect than seen at other levels. The probability that climate-change trends in the mid-troposphere (5-8 km) will be more clearly evident against the background of natural variability than at, for example, the surface. Indeed, results from coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that in terms of a global mean quantity the troposphere will actually warm at a rate greater than that of the surface temperature. At higher elevations, above 12 km, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 1990 indicates there is a high degree of certainty that a greenhouse-gas induced decrease in stratospheric temperatures will occur. The measure of change in these upper atmospheric layers, in combination with quantities observed at the surface, provide an ensemble of information to give the most robust opportunity for climate change detection.

Christy, John R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission factors: A comprehensive analysis of switchgrass‐based biofuel production

Abstract This study investigates uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass‐based biofuel production in Michigan. Using three life cycle assessment (LCA) databases—US lifecycle inventory (USLCI) database, GREET, and Ecoinvent—each with multiple versions, we recalculated the global warming intensity (GWI) and GHG mitigation potential in a static calculation. Employing Monte Carlo simulations along with local and global sensitivity analyses, we assess uncertainties and pinpoint key parameters influencing GWI. The convergence of results across our previous study, static calculations, and Monte Carlo simulations enhances the credibility of estimated GWI values. Static calculations, validated by Monte Carlo simulations, offer reasonable central tendencies, providing a robust foundation for policy considerations. However, the wider range observed in Monte Carlo simulations underscores the importance of potential variations and uncertainties in real‐world applications. Sensitivity analyses identify biofuel yield, GHG emissions of electricity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) change as pivotal parameters influencing GWI. Decreasing uncertainties in GWI may be achieved by making greater efforts to acquire more precise data on these parameters. Our study emphasizes the significance of considering diverse GHG factors and databases in GWI assessments and stresses the need for accurate electricity fuel mixes, crucial information for refining GWI assessments and informing strategies for sustainable biofuel production.

Kim, Seungdo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass-based biofuel production

This study investigates uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass-based biofuel production in Michigan. Using three life cycle assessment (LCA) databases— US lifecycle inventory database (USLCI), GREET, and Ecoinvent—each with multiple versions, we recalculated the global warming intensity (GWI) and GHG mitigation potential in a static calculation. Employing Monte Carlo simulations along with local and global sensitivity analyses, we assess uncertainties and pinpoint key parameters influencing GWI.

greenhouse ga emmission↗

NASA NTRS2023

Global and Zonal-Mean Hydrological Response to Early Eocene Warmth

Earth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a “wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier” response anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data-modeling approach to reconstruct global and zonal-mean rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that the mid- (30°–60°N/S) and high-latitudes (>60°N/S) are characterized by a thermodynamically dominated hydrological response to warming and overall wetter conditions. The tropical band (0°–15°N/S) is also characterized by wetter conditions, with several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. However, the latter is not evident from the proxy data. The subtropics are characterized by negative precipitation-evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) in the DeepMIP models, but there is surprisingly large inter-model variability in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, we find that models with weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture divergence, leading to an increase in MAP. These model simulations agree more closely with our new proxy-derived precipitation reconstructions and other key climate metrics and imply that the early Eocene was characterized by reduced subtropical moisture divergence. If the meridional temperature gradient was even weaker than suggested by those DeepMIP models, circulation-induced changes may have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, leading to wetter subtropics. This highlights the importance of accurately reconstructing zonal temperature gradients when reconstructing past rainfall patterns.

Margot J. Cramwinckel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas

Abstract Under global warming, dry and hot events have been increasing in recent decades and are projected to increase in the future across global land areas. The impacts of compound dry and hot events may lead to increased stress to the natural and human systems than separate dry or hot events. Thus, quantitative assessments of global land areas affected by these compound events are needed to understand their risks. This study focuses on the variation in global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events for both historical and future periods using observations from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. Based on historical observations and simulations, a substantial increase in the spatial extent of these compound events was detected, especially since the 1980s. Climate model projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario reveal that both global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events will increase to approximately 1.7–1.8 times by the end of the 21st century. Based on different thresholds of compound events, the spatial extent of global land areas during the June–July–August (December–January–February) season will increase by 12.38–17.20% (7.83–11.19%) in 2050–2099 relative to that in 1950–1999, and the spatial extent of global cropland areas will increase by 14.69–19.63% (9.60–14.48%). The increase in areas affected by compound dry and hot events may lead to more losses in different sectors in the future and more efforts are needed to cope with their potential impacts.

Wu, Xinying↗

NASA NTRS1988

Oblique impacts: Catastrophic vs. protracted effects

Proposed impacts as the cause of biologic catastrophes at the end of the Cretaceous and Eocene face several enigmas: protracted extinctions, even prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature; widespread but non-uniform dispersal of the meteoritic component; absence of a crater of sufficient size; and evidence for massive intensive fires. Various hypotheses provide reasonable mechanisms for mass mortalities: global cooling by continental impact sites; global warming by oceanic impact sites; contrasting effects of asteroidal, cometary, and even multiple impacts; and stress on an already fragile global environment. Yet not every known large impact is associated with a major biologic catastrophe. An alternative is expanded: the consequences of an oblique impact. The most probable angle of impact is 45 deg with the probability for an impact at smaller angles decreasing: A vertical impact is as rare as a tangential impact with a 5 deg impact angle or less occurring only 8 percent of the time. Consequently a low-angle impact is a rare but probable event. Laboratory experiments at the NASA-Ames Vertical Gun Range reveal important information about cratering efficiency, impact vaporization, projectile dispersal, and phenomenology, thereby providing perspective for possible consequences of such an impact on both the Earth and Moon. Oblique impacts are rare but certain events through geologic time: A 5 deg impact by a 2 km-diameter impactor on the Earth would occur only once in about 18 my with a 10 km-diameter once in about 450 my. Major life extinctions beginning prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature or protracted extinctions seemingly too long after the proposed event may not be evidence against an impact as a cause but evidence for a more complex but probable sequence of events.

Schultz, P. H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

SPRUCE Anaerobic oxidation of methane mitigates net methane production and responds to long-term experimental warming in a northern bog: Supporting data

This data set contains measurements of anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM), net methane (CH4) production, carbon dioxide (CO2) production, and gross CH4 production measurements from the SPRUCE experiment (Hanson et al. 2017). CH4 is greenhouse gas with 45 times the sustained global warming potential of CO2 over 100 years, which may have significant implications on global climate change. The process of AOM plays a large role in the extent of CH4 emissions from wetland environments like those at the SPRUCE experiment site. This study conducted two on different dates. In experiment 1, net CH4 and CO2 production were measured with a gas chromatograph through the peat profile at in situ temperatures of the SPRUCE plots four times from May to October, 2016 (2016-05 to 2016-10). Two treatments were examined, a Porewater Treatment that was a 1:1 volumetric peat:porewater slurry and a No Porewater Treatment that was field-moist peat with no porewater added. Additionally, net CH4 production were measured at frequent intervals (from 4 hr to 9 d) in peat from selected SPRUCE plots from soil collected on October 16, 2016 (2016-10-16). Samples were collected from the SPRUCE plots, immediately made anaerobic, and transported to the University of Oregon for rate measurements within several days of collection. In experiment 2, AOM, net CH4 production, CO2 production, and gross CH4 production were measured through the peat profile at in situ field temperatures once from samples collected in July, 2021 (2021-07). The same two porewater treatments were examined. AOM was measured with a 13CH4 tracer method using a Picarro G2201-i analyzer for isotopic CO2/CH4 quantification with a small stable isotope module attached. This data set contains three data files in comma separate (*.csv) format. This data set is associated with the following publication: Barney, M, AM Hopple, LL Gregory, JK Keller, and SD Bridgham. 2024. Anaerobic oxidation of methane mitigates net methane production and responds to long-term experimental warming in a northern bog. Soil Biology and Biochemistry, 190, 109316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2024.109316.

SPRUCE Experiment, Marcell Experimental Forest, Me↗

NASA NTRS1999

Response to CO2 Transient Increase in the GISS Coupled Model: Regional Coolings in a Warming Climate

The (GISS) Goddard Institute for Space Studies coupled atmosphere-ocean model is used to investigate the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 by comparing a compounded 1 percent CO2 increase experiment with a control simulation. After 70 years of integration, the global surface air temperature in the 1 percent CO2 experiment is 1.43 C warmer. In spite of this global warming, there are two distinct regions, the northern Atlantic Ocean and the southern Pacific Ocean, where the surface air temperature is up to 4 C cooler. This situation is maintained by two positive feedbacks: a local effect on convection in the South Pacific and a non-local impact on the meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The poleward transport of latent energy and dry static energy by the atmosphere is greater in the 1 percent CO2 experiment, caused by warming and therefore increased water vapor and greater greenhouse capacity at lower latitudes. The larger atmospheric transports tend to reduce upward vertical fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean surface at high latitudes, which has the effect of stabilizing the ocean, reducing both convection and the thermohaline circulation. With less convection, less warm water is brought up from below, and with a reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (by 30 percent at time of CO2 doubling), the poleward energy transport by the oceans decreases. The colder water then leads to further reductions in evaporation, decreases of salinity at high latitudes, continued stabilization of the ocean, and maintenance of reduced convection and meridional overturning. Although sea ice decreases globally, it increases in the cooling regions which reduces the overall climate sensitivity; its effect is most pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical warming has been observed over the past several decades; if modeling studies such as this and others which have produced similar effects are valid, these processes may already be beginning.

Russell, Gary L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Urbanization effects on the spatial patterns of spring vegetation phenology depend on the climatic background

Cities have been considered ideal surrogates for evaluating ecological responses to climate warming. Although research has revealed that the urban heat island effect is not the only determinant that drives the rural-urban difference in spring phenology, limited attempts further explore the effect of complex interactions between urbanization and climates on the start of the season (SOS). Here, we employed the percentage of impervious surface area as an indicator of urbanization levels, incorporating the urban heat island (UHI) effect and climates to decipher the multiple effects on the temporal shift in SOS. Our results suggest that urbanization, the UHI effect, and climates jointly drive the phenological timing in cities. Further, the SOS is highly linearly correlated with urbanization levels and UHI effects (p<0.001) in the zones with warm and humid climates, whereas relatively warmer, cooler, or arid climates break down the linearity. Geographically, the SOS is north-south symmetrical for the rural-urban ecosystem at the national scale, which initiates at the mid-latitudes (around 30 °N, 67.58 DOY ± 2.23 days) first and then towards the low (around 20 °N, 105.25 DOY ± 1.31 days) and high-latitudes (45 °N, 123.01 DOY ± 1.45 days). Chilling accumulation and spring temperature jointly contribute to this phenomenon. As the UHI effect is similar to the projected global warming in the future, understanding the phenological responses to urbanization in various climates is insightful for evaluating the impact of future warming on plants' phenological behavior in the global ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗