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DOE OSTI2022

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamic properties of “near-perfect” gas

When applied thermodynamics requires simple representations of thermodynamic quantities, one often finds quantities such as pressure and the thermal energy density expressed as a monomial linear product of density and temperature power laws. This is a simple generalization of the product of density and temperature used for the perfect gas that admits a broader range of thermodynamic behavior into analytic fluid calculations or provides an analytic form that is readily fit to tabulated equation-of-state data for an arbitrary material. This paper reviews the thermodynamic properties of this generalized perfect-gas model, treating it as a class of “near-perfect-gas” models that are defined and unified here, for the first time, through a shared Helmholtz free energy. This generalization from perfect to near-perfect-gas models preserves some perfect-gas properties (e.g., constant adiabatic exponents) but not others (e.g., constant specific heats) and is constrained by thermodynamic consistency. It is important to be aware of the properties of this class of near-perfect-gas models when using them as surrogates for real nonperfect materials that may have properties that cannot be captured by near-perfect-gas models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Variability of the Black Hole Image in M87 at the Dynamical Timescale

The black hole images obtained with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) are expected to be variable at the dynamical timescale near their horizons. For the black hole at the center of the M87 galaxy, this timescale (5–61 days) is comparable to the 6 day extent of the 2017 EHT observations. Closure phases along baseline triangles are robust interferometric observables that are sensitive to the expected structural changes of the images but are free of station-based atmospheric and instrumental errors. We explored the day-to-day variability in closure-phase measurements on all six linearly independent nontrivial baseline triangles that can be formed from the 2017 observations. We showed that three triangles exhibit very low day-to-day variability, with a dispersion of ∼3°–5°. The only triangles that exhibit substantially higher variability (∼90°–180°) are the ones with baselines that cross the visibility amplitude minima on the u–v plane, as expected from theoretical modeling. We used two sets of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations to explore the dependence of the predicted variability on various black hole and accretion-flow parameters. We found that changing the magnetic field configuration, electron temperature model, or black hole spin has a marginal effect on the model consistency with the observed level of variability. On the other hand, the most discriminating image characteristic of models is the fractional width of the bright ring of emission. Models that best reproduce the observed small level of variability are characterized by thin ring-like images with structures dominated by gravitational lensing effects and thus least affected by turbulence in the accreting plasmas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Advection Schemes on Tracer Interrelationships in Large-Eddy Simulations of Deep Convection

This study investigates the preservation of tracer interrelationships during advection in large-eddy simulations of an idealized deep convective cloud, which is particularly relevant to chemistry, aerosol, and cloud microphysics models. Employing the Cloud Model 1, advection is represented using third-, fifth-, and seventh-order weighted essentially non-oscillatory schemes. As a simplified analogy for cloud hydrometeors and aerosols, several inert passive tracers following linear and nonlinear relationships are initialized after the cloud reaches ~6-km depth. Numerical mixing in the simulated turbulent convective clouds leads to significant deviations from the initial nonlinear relationships between tracers. In these simulations, a considerable fraction of the grid points where the tracers’ nonlinear relationships are altered from advection are classified as unrealistic (e.g., ~13% for the environmental tracers on average), including errors from range-preserving unmixing and overshooting. Errors in the sum of three tracers are also relatively large, ranging between ~1% and 16% for 5% of the grid points in and near the cloud. The magnitude of unrealistic mixing and errors in the sum of three tracers generally increase with the order of accuracy of the advection scheme. These results are consistent across model grid spacings ranging from 50 to 200 m, and across three different flow realizations for each combination of grid spacing and advection scheme tested. Tests employing a previously proposed scalar normalization procedure show substantially reduced errors in the sum of three tracers with a relatively small negative impact on other tracer relationships. This analysis, therefore, suggests efficacy of the normalization procedure when applied to turbulent three-dimensional cloud simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Importance of Site Diversity and Connectivity in Electrochemical CO Reduction on Cu

Electrochemical CO 2 reduction on Cu is a promising approach to produce value-added chemicals using renewable feedstocks, yet various Cu preparations have led to differences in activity and selectivity toward single and multicarbon products. Here, we find, surprisingly, that the effective catalytic activity toward ethylene improves when there is a larger fraction of less active sites acting as reservoirs of *CO on the surface of Cu nanoparticle electrocatalysts. In an adaptation of chemical transient kinetics to electrocatalysis, we measure the dynamic response of a gas diffusion electrode (GDE) cell when the feed gas is abruptly switched between Ar (inert) and CO. When switching from Ar to CO, CO reduction (COR) begins promptly, but when switching from CO to Ar, COR can be maintained for several seconds (delay time) despite the absence of the CO reactant in the gas phase. A three-site microkinetic model captures the observed dynamic behavior and shows that Cu catalysts exhibiting delay times have a less active *CO reservoir that exhibits fast diffusion to active sites. The observed delay times and the estimated *CO reservoir sizes are affected by catalyst preparation, applied potential, and microenvironment (electrolyte cation identity, electrolyte pH, and CO partial pressure). Notably, we estimate that the *CO reservoir surface coverage can be as high as 88 ± 7% on oxide-derived Cu (OD-Cu) at high overpotentials (–1.52 V vs SHE) and this increases in reservoir coverage coincide with increased turnover frequencies to ethylene. We also estimate that *CO can travel substantial distances (up to 10s of nm) prior to desorption or reaction. It appears that active C–C coupling sites by themselves do not control selectivity to C 2+ products in electrochemical COR; the supply of CO to those sites is also a crucial factor. More generally, the overall activity of Cu electrocatalysts cannot be approximated from linear combinations of individual site activities. Future designs must consider the diversity of the catalyst network and account for intersite transportation pathways.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of electron viscosity on resonant layer responses to non-axisymmetric magnetic perturbations

The resonant field penetration to magnetic islands is the central MHD mechanism of non-axisymmetric plasma responses in a tokamak such as disruptive locking or favorable ELM stabilization. The resonant field penetration can be induced by any non-ideal processes as manifested in the delicate balance under the generalized Ohm's law. Here, we show that the viscous effects by electrons are not ignorable in the field penetration unlike previous presumption, even if the electron viscosity is as small as the square root of its mass compared to the ions. It is clear that its effects become only bigger if the electron viscosity becomes anomalously large. The work strictly follows the three-field model in the linear regime targeting the prediction of the onset of the field penetration and successfully extending it with electron viscosity and identifying new regimes. The results also indicate that the error field thresholds become more strongly dependent on plasma density than ones predicted in the linear regimes without the electron viscosity, which is consistent with experimental observations and thus a significant implication.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neural network based fast prediction of β N limits in HL-2M

Artificial neural networks (NNs) are trained, based on the numerical database, to predict the no-wall and ideal-wall β N limits, due to onset of the n = 1 ( n is the toroidal mode number) ideal external kink instability, for the HL-2M tokamak. The database is constructed by toroidal computations utilizing both the equilibrium code CHEASE (Lütjens et al 1992 Comput. Phys. Commun. 69 287) and the stability code MARS-F (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681). The stability results show that (1) the plasma elongation generally enhances both β N limits, for either positive or negative triangularity plasmas; (2) the effect is more pronounced for positive triangularity plasmas; (3) the computed no-wall β N limit linearly scales with the plasma internal inductance, with the proportionality coefficient ranging between 1 and 5 for HL-2M; (4) the no-wall limit substantially decreases with increasing pressure peaking factor. Furthermore, both the NN model and the convolutional neural network (CNN) model are trained and tested, producing consistent results. The trained NNs predict both the no-wall and ideal-wall limits with as high as 95% accuracy, compared to those directly computed by the stability code. Additional test cases, produced by the Tokamak Simulation Code (Jardin et al 1993 Nucl. Fusion 33 371), also show reasonable performance of the trained NNs, with the relative error being within 10%. The constructed database provides effective references for the future HL-2M operations. The trained NNs can be used as a real-time monitor for disruption prevention in the HL-2M experiments, or serve as part of the integrated modeling tools for ideal kink stability analysis.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of tokamak vertical stability control based on non-inductive Faraday-effect polarimetry measurements

Long-pulse or steady-state fusion reactors are envisioned to control vertical stability based on non-inductive measurements, i.e. that do not rely on temporal change of magnetic field. For the first time, vertical stability control using non-inductive Faraday-effect polarimetry measurements has been demonstrated. The Radial Interferometer-Polarimeter system on DIII-D is capable of microsecond resolution and was used to absolutely determine the vertical position of the plasma magnetic axis Z 0 . A vertical stability controller was developed to robustly stabilize diverted plasmas using Faraday-based measurements. The system was able to stabilize against vertical displacement events with growth rates up to 350 s -1 in elongated and elliptical plasma shapes, and instabilities with even higher growth rates are likely to be controllable with further improvements to controller tuning. Tests show that the Faraday-based controller remains effective and is capable of recovering from loss of control even when the plasma vertical position is far from the region where the linear model used to calculate Z 0 is most valid. Faraday control has also been activated during plasma ramp-up, demonstrating the robustness of the technique to larger systematic diagnostic uncertainty at low electron density.

Faraday-effect polarimetry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improved quantum algorithms for linear and nonlinear differential equations

We present substantially generalized and improved quantum algorithms over prior work for inhomogeneous linear and nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE). Specifically, we show how the norm of the matrix exponential characterizes the run time of quantum algorithms for linear ODEs opening the door to an application to a wider class of linear and nonlinear ODEs. In [1], a quantum algorithm for a certain class of linear ODEs is given, where the matrix involved needs to be diagonalizable. The quantum algorithm for linear ODEs presented here extends to many classes of non-diagonalizable matrices including singular matrices. The algorithm here is also exponentially faster than the bounds derived in [1] for certain classes of diagonalizable matrices. Our linear ODE algorithm is then applied to nonlinear differential equations using Carleman linearization (an approach taken recently by us in [2]). The improvement over that result is two-fold. First, we obtain an exponentially better dependence on error. This kind of logarithmic dependence on error has also been achieved by [3], but only for homogeneous nonlinear equations. Second, the present algorithm can handle any sparse matrix (that models dissipation) if it has a negative log-norm (including non-diagonalizable matrices), whereas [2] and [3] additionally require normality.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the effect of wind speed and direction shear on utility‐scale wind turbine power production

Abstract Wind speed and direction variations across the rotor affect power production. As utility‐scale turbines extend higher into the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with larger rotor diameters and hub heights, they increasingly encounter more complex wind speed and direction variations. We assess three models for power production that account for wind speed and direction shear. Two are based on actuator disc representations, and the third is a blade element representation. We also evaluate the predictions from a standard power curve model that has no knowledge of wind shear. The predictions from each model, driven by wind profile measurements from a profiling LiDAR, are compared to concurrent power measurements from an adjacent utility‐scale wind turbine. In the field measurements of the utility‐scale turbine, discrete combinations of speed and direction shear induce changes in power production of −19% to +34% relative to the turbine power curve for a given hub height wind speed. Positive speed shear generally corresponds to over‐performance and increasing magnitudes of direction shear to greater under‐performance, relative to the power curve. Overall, the blade element model produces both higher correlation and lower error relative to the other models, but its quantitative accuracy depends on induction and controller sub‐models. To further assess the influence of complex, non‐monotonic wind profiles, we also drive the models with best‐fit power law wind speed profiles and linear wind direction profiles. These idealized inputs produce qualitative and quantitative differences in power predictions from each model, demonstrating that time‐varying, non‐monotonic wind shear affects wind power production.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Generalizable is a Machine-Learning Approach for Modeling Hub-Height Turbulence Intensity?

Hub-height turbulence intensity is essential for a variety of wind energy applications. However, simulating it is a challenging task. Simple analytical models have been proposed in the literature, but they all come with significant limitations. Even state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model, currently struggle to predict hub-height turbulence intensity. Here, we propose a machine-learning-based approach to predict hub-height turbulence intensity from other hub-height and ground-level atmospheric measurements, using observations from the Perdigao field campaign and the Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory. We consider a random forest regression model, which we validate first at the site used for training and then under a more robust round-robin approach, and compare its performance to a multivariate linear regression. The random forest successfully outperforms the linear regression in modeling hub-height turbulence intensity, with a normalized root-mean-square error as low as 0.014 when using 30-minute average data. In order to achieve such low root-mean-square error values, the knowledge of hub-height turbulence kinetic energy (which can instead be modeled in the Weather Research and Forecasting model) is needed. Interestingly, we find that the performance of the random forest generalizes well when considering a round-robin validation (i.e., when the algorithm is trained at one site such as Perdigao or Southern Great Plains) and then applied to model hub-height turbulence intensity at the other location.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven, multi-moment fluid modeling of Landau damping

Deriving governing equations of complex physical systems based on first principles can be quite challenging when there are certain unknown terms and hidden physical mechanisms in the systems. In this work, we apply a deep learning architecture to learn fluid partial differential equations (PDEs) of a plasma system based on the data acquired from a fully kinetic model. Here, the learned multi-moment fluid PDEs are demonstrated to incorporate kinetic effect such as Landau damping. Based on the learned fluid closure, the data-driven, multi-moment fluid modeling can well reproduce all the physical quantities derived from the fully kinetic model. The calculated damping rate of Landau damping is consistent with both the fully kinetic simulation and the linear theory. The data-driven fluid modeling of PDEs for complex physical systems may be applied to improve the fluid closure and reduce the computational cost of multi-scale modeling of global systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

On applications of quantum computing to plasma simulations

Quantum computing is gaining increased attention as a potential way to speed up simulations of physical systems, and it is also of interest to apply it to simulations of classical plasmas. However, quantum information science is traditionally aimed at modeling linear Hamiltonian systems of a particular form that is found in quantum mechanics, so extending the existing results to plasma applications remains a challenge. Here, we report a preliminary exploration of the long-term opportunities and likely obstacles in this area. First, we show that many plasma-wave problems are naturally representable in a quantumlike form and thus are naturally fit for quantum computers. Second, we consider more general plasma problems that include non-Hermitian dynamics (instabilities, irreversible dissipation) and nonlinearities. We show that by extending the configuration space, such systems can also be represented in a quantumlike form and thus can be simulated with quantum computers too, albeit that requires more computational resources compared to the first case. Third, we outline potential applications of hybrid quantum–classical computers, which include analysis of global eigenmodes and also an alternative approach to nonlinear simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comfort Model Simplification for Tight Integration with Grid Service Optimizations

Localized generation, storage, and intelligent power electronics are increasingly being integrated into building. The excess storage, thermal, and generation capacity can be used to develop new markets for ancillary services such as peak reduction, voltage and frequency support, or load flattening. Widespread participation in these markets will make the power grid more resilient. However, widespread participation in these markets will require a simple and intuitive control over the excess capacity by the building occupants. Most importantly for adopting these technologies, participation in these markets should not require sacrificing occupant comfort. Many of the proposed control and optimization technologies for supplying the ancillary services do not explicitly incorporate occupant comfort into their models and when they do, generally utilize a rigid constraint on the indoor air temperature set a priori. This reduces flexibility in using excess thermal capacity. It also cannot take into account uncertainties in local factors that affect thermal comfort such as clothing insulation or relative humidity. In this paper we present and justify some assumptions that simplify the standard predictors of thermal comfort. We also develop a regression model of the thermal comfort that is linear with respect to the indoor air temperature. Next we develop the concept of thermal comfort variation that eliminates the dependence of the thermal comfort on uncertain thermal comfort factors. Then, we present a quadratic program utilizing the thermal comfort variation in both the objective function and as a constraint. Finally, we show the results of a time-of-use cost optimization that utilizes the simplified thermal comfort model.

Melin, Alexander↗

DOE OSTI2022

SNICAR-ADv4: a physically based radiative transfer model to represent the spectral albedo of glacier ice

Abstract. Accurate modeling of cryospheric surface albedo is essential for our understanding of climate change as snow and ice surfaces regulate the global radiative budget and sea-level through their albedo and mass balance. Although significant progress has been made using physical principles to represent the dynamic albedo of snow, models of glacier ice albedo tend to be heavily parameterized and not explicitly connected with physical properties that govern albedo, such as the number and size of air bubbles, specific surface area (SSA), presence of abiotic and biotic light absorbing constituents (LACs), and characteristics of any overlying snow. Here, we introduce SNICAR-ADv4, an extension of the multi-layer two-stream delta-Eddington radiative transfer model with the adding–doubling solver that has been previously applied to represent snow and sea-ice spectral albedo. SNICAR-ADv4 treats spectrally resolved Fresnel reflectance and transmittance between overlying snow and higher-density glacier ice, scattering by air bubbles of varying sizes, and numerous types of LACs. SNICAR-ADv4 simulates a wide range of clean snow and ice broadband albedo (BBA), ranging from 0.88 for (30 µm) fine-grain snow to 0.03 for bare and bubble-free ice under direct light. Our results indicate that representing ice with a density of 650 kg m−3 as snow with no refractive Fresnel layer, as done previously, generally overestimates the BBA by an average of 0.058. However, because most naturally occurring ice surfaces are roughened “white ice”, we recommend modeling a thin snow layer over bare ice simulations. We find optimal agreement with measurements by representing cryospheric media with densities less than 650 kg m−3 as snow and larger-density media as bubbly ice with a Fresnel layer. SNICAR-ADv4 also simulates the non-linear albedo impacts from LACs with changing ice SSA, with peak impact per unit mass of LACs near SSAs of 0.1–0.01 m2 kg−1. For bare, bubble-free ice, LACs actually increase the albedo. SNICAR-ADv4 represents smooth transitions between snow, firn, and ice surfaces and accurately reproduces measured spectral albedos of a variety of glacier surfaces. This work paves the way for adapting SNICAR-ADv4 to be used in land ice model components of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Real time evolution for ultracompact Hamiltonian eigenstates on quantum hardware

In this work we present a detailed analysis of variational quantum phase estimation (VQPE), a method based on real-time evolution for ground and excited state estimation on near-term hardware. We derive the theoretical ground on which the approach stands, and demonstrate that it provides one of the most compact variational expansions to date for solving strongly correlated Hamiltonians. At the center of VQPE lies a set of equations, with a simple geometrical interpretation, which provides conditions for the time evolution grid in order to decouple eigenstates out of the set of time evolved expansion states, and connects the method to the classical filter diagonalization algorithm. Further, we introduce what we call the unitary formulation of VQPE, in which the number of matrix elements that need to be measured scales linearly with the number of expansion states, and we provide an analysis of the effects of noise which substantially improves previous considerations. The unitary formulation allows for a direct comparison to iterative phase estimation. Our results mark VQPE as both a natural and highly efficient quantum algorithm for ground and excited state calculations of general many-body systems. We demonstrate a hardware implementation of VQPE for the transverse field Ising model. Further, we illustrate its power on a paradigmatic example of strong correlation (Cr2 in the SVP basis set), and show that it is possible to reach chemical accuracy with as few as ~50 timesteps.

Klymko, Katherine↗

DOE OSTI2021

MechElastic: A Python library for analysis of mechanical and elastic properties of bulk and 2D materials

We report the MechElastic Python package evaluates the mechanical and elastic properties of bulk and 2D materials using the elastic coefficient matrix ( C ij ) obtained from any ab-initio density-functional theory (DFT) code. The current version of this package reads the output of VASP, ABINIT, and Quantum Espresso codes (but it can be easily generalized to any other DFT code) and performs the appropriate post-processing of elastic constants as per the requirement of the user. This program can also detect the input structure's crystal symmetry and test the mechanical stability of all crystal classes using the Born-Huang criteria. Various useful material-specific properties such as elastic moduli, longitudinal and transverse elastic wave velocities, Debye temperature, elastic anisotropy, 2D layer modulus, hardness, Pugh's ratio, Cauchy's pressure, Kleinman's parameter, and Lame's coefficients, can be estimated using this program. Another existing feature of this program is to employ the ELATE package (2016) [29] and plot the spatial variation of several elastic properties such as Poisson's ratio, linear compressibility, shear modulus, and Young's modulus in three dimensions. Further, the MechElastic package can plot the equation of state (EOS) curves for energy and pressure for a variety of EOS models such as Murnaghan, Birch, Birch-Murnaghan, and Vinet, by reading the inputted energy/pressure versus volume data obtained via numerical calculations or experiments. This package is particularly useful for the high-throughput analysis of elastic and mechanical properties of materials.

2D materials↗