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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Closure Relations in Optical Afterglow of Gamma-Ray Bursts

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are extremely high-energy events that can be observed at very high redshift. In addition to γ rays, they can emit in X-ray, optical, and sometimes radio wavelengths. Here, following the approach in Srinivasaragavan et al.; Dainotti et al.; and Dainotti et al., we consider 82 GRBs from Dainotti et al. that have been observed in optical wavelengths and fitted with a broken power law. We consider the relations between the spectral and temporal indices (closure relations; CRs) according to the synchrotron forward-shock model evolving in the constant-density interstellar medium (ISM; k = 0) and the stellar wind environment (k = 2) in both slow- and fast-cooling regimes, where the density profile is defined as n ∝ r -k . We find the $ν$ > $max${$ν$ c , $ν$ m } regime is most favored, where ν c and ν m are the cooling and characteristic frequencies, respectively. Finally, we test the 2D Dainotti correlation between the rest-frame end time of the plateau and the luminosity at that time on GRBs that fulfill the most-favored CRs. When we compare the intrinsic scatter σ int of those 2D correlations to the scatter presented in Dainotti et al., we see the scatters of our correlations generally agree with the previous values within 1σ, both before and after correction for selection bias. This new information has helped us to pinpoint subsamples of GRBs with features that could drive the GRB emission mechanism, and eventually allow for GRBs to be used as standard candles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Existence of the Plateau Emission in High-energy Gamma-Ray Burst Light Curves Observed by Fermi-LAT

The Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) shows long-lasting high-energy emission in many gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), similar to X-ray afterglows observed by the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory (Swift). Some LAT light curves (LCs) show a late-time flattening reminiscent of X-ray plateaus. We explore the presence of plateaus in LAT temporally extended emission analyzing GRBs from the second Fermi-LAT GRB Catalog from 2008 to 2016 May with known redshifts, and check whether they follow closure relations corresponding to four distinct astrophysical environments predicted by the external forward shock model. We find that three LCs can be fit by the same phenomenological model used to fit X-ray plateaus and show tentative evidence for the existence of plateaus in their high-energy extended emission. The most favorable scenario is a slow-cooling regime, whereas the preferred density profile for each GRBs varies from a constant-density interstellar medium to an r –2 wind environment. We also compare the end time of the plateaus in γ-rays and X-rays using a statistical comparison with 222 Swift GRBs with plateaus and known redshifts from 2005 January to 2019 August. Within this comparison, the case of GRB 090510 shows an indication of chromaticity at the end time of the plateau. Finally, we update the 3D fundamental plane relation among the rest-frame end time of the plateau, its correspondent luminosity, and the peak prompt luminosity for 222 GRBs observed by Swift. We find that these three LAT GRBs follow this relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Physics-Driven Deep-Learning Network for Solving Nonlinear Inverse Problems

Geosteering inversion, which can be viewed as a nonlinear inverse problem, is an important technique used by directional drilling. Traditional methods that rely on iterative procedures and regularization are sensitive to the selection of initial values and can be slow due to convergence issues. In industrial applications, a lookup table is used to produce fast predictions. However, performance is not guaranteed by this approach due to the limitation of the hardware. In this paper, we propose a novel physics-driven deep-learning framework for providing a fast, accurate surrogate to solve the inverse problem. Particularly, leveraged by the forward physical model and 1D convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), the proposed method provides more reliable solutions to the inverse problem with improved performance. In addition, a new physics-driven loss function is introduced to accommodate both the model misfit and the data misfit. In conclusion, our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamics of Water, Climate, and Infrastructure

Climate and its impacts on the natural environment, and on the ability of the natural environment to support population and the built environment, stands as a threat multiplier that impacts national and global security. The Water Intersections with Climate Systems Security (WICSS) Strategic Initiative is designed to improve understanding of water’s role in, among other topics, the connection of critical infrastructure to climate in light of competing national and global security interests (including transboundary issues and stability), and identifying research gaps aligned with Sandia, and Federal agency priorities. With this impetus in mind, the WICSS Strategic Initiative team conceptualized a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the relationship between and among climate, the natural environment, population, and the built environment, with an understanding that any such regionally focused system must have externalities that influence the system from beyond its’ control, and metrics for better understanding the consequences of the set of interactions. These are discussed in light of a series of worldviews that focus on portions of the overall systems relationship. The relationships are described and documented in detail. A set of reinforcing and balancing loops are then highlighted within the context of the model. Finally, forward-looking actions are highlighted to describe how this conceptual model can be turned into modeling to address multiple problems described under the purview of the Strategic Initiative.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive powertrain modeling for heavy-duty applications: A study of plug-in hybrid electric bus

A comprehensive forward-looking powertrain model with an efficiency-based control strategy was developed to achieve real-time optimization of plug-in hybrid electric buses while considering the real vehicle drivability and the practical operation of all powertrain components under real driving conditions. The control strategy is based on a supervisory control algorithm that alternately employs charge-dominant control and discharge-dominant control to manage multiple powertrain sources, and enable an optimal overall efficiency-based powertrain operation state by maximizing the inherent optimal powertrain efficiency through best all transmission gear choice and the blend of motor and/or engine power. In the model, a component energy efficiency database was developed to rapidly enable an smart and optimal operating state determined from a set of efficiency maps characterizing the component and powertrain control states as a function of the instantaneous vehicle operational condition. The results revealed that the energy savings achieved with the innovative powertrain control improved by 10%–30% compared with the baseline hybrid powertrain control strategy. The benefits of eco-driving with respect to energy consumption were also evaluated using the powertrain model. The powertrain control model was implemented into a real hybrid bus. Measured energy savings with the optimized control strategy were similar to the simulated results.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Scale Inference, Estimation, and Prediction Engine for Earth System Modeling

We posit that AI methods can be leveraged to significantly enhance the predictive skill of forward Earth system modeling (ESM) activities. A hybrid framework incorporating traditional ESM modeling, inference methods, and AI techniques could make better use of both measured and computed information as well as computational resources by targeting inference tasks at program priorities, such as the predictability of precipitation extremes. This runtime pathway to closing the simulation/analysis-data/model improvement loop will streamline the traditional offline pathway to model improvement, which is based on domain science expertise, while suggesting guidance for further observations and measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new step forward in realistic cluster lens mass modelling: analysis of Hubble Frontier Field Cluster Abell S1063 from joint lensing, X-ray, and galaxy kinematics data

We present a new method to simultaneously and self-consistently model the mass distribution of galaxy clusters that combines constraints from strong lensing features, X-ray emission, and galaxy kinematics measurements. We are able to successfully decompose clusters into their collisionless and collisional mass components thanks to the X-ray surface brightness, as well as use the dynamics of cluster members, to obtain more accurate masses exploiting the fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies. Knowledge from all observables is included through a consistent Bayesian approach in the likelihood or in physically motivated priors. We apply this method to the galaxy cluster Abell S1063 and produce a mass model that we publicly release with this paper. The resulting mass distribution presents different ellipticities for the intra-cluster gas and the other large-scale mass components as well as deviation from elliptical symmetry in the main halo. We assess the ability of our method to recover the masses of the different elements of the cluster using a mock cluster based on a simplified version of our Abell S1063 model. Thanks to the wealth of mutliwavelength information provided by the mass model and the detected X-ray emission, we also found evidence for an ongoing merger event with gas sloshing from a smaller infalling structure into the main cluster. In agreement with previous findings, the total mass, gas profile, and gas mass fraction are all consistent with small deviations from the hydrostatic equilibrium. This new mass model for Abell S1063 is publicly available, as the lenstool extension used to construct it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forward sensitivity approach for estimating eddy viscosity closures in nonlinear model reduction

In this paper, we propose a variational approach to estimate eddy viscosity using forward sensitivity method (FSM) for closure modeling in nonlinear reduced order models. FSM is a data assimilation technique that blends model's predictions with noisy observations to correct initial state and/or model parameters. We apply this approach on a projection based reduced order model (ROM) of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation with a square wave defining a moving shock, and the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation formulating a decay of Kraichnan turbulence. We investigate the capability of the approach to approximate an optimal value for eddy viscosity with different measurement configurations. Specifically, we show that our approach can sufficiently assimilate information either through full field or sparse noisy measurements to estimate eddy viscosity closure to cure standard Galerkin reduced order model (GROM) predictions. Therefore, our approach provides a modular framework to correct forecasting error from a sparse observational network on a latent space. We highlight that the proposed GROM-FSM framework is promising for emerging digital twin applications, where real-time sensor measurements can be used to update and optimize surrogate model's parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning prediction on the fractional free volume of polymer membranes

Fractional free volume (FFV) characterizes the microstructural level features of polymers and affects their properties including thermal, mechanical, and separation performance. Experimental measurements and theoretical analyses have been used to quantify the FFV of polymers, but challenges remain because of their limitations. Experimental measurements are laborious and based on semi empirical equations, while Bondi’s group contribution theory involves ambiguities like the determination of van der Waals volume and the choice of factor values in the theoretical equation. To efficiently evaluate the FFV of polymers, this study utilizes high-throughput molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to build a large dataset regarding polymer’s FFV. Based on this large dataset, we further build machine learning (ML) models to establish the composition-structure relation. Inspired by group contribution theory which correlates polymer’s functional groups to FFV, our ML models correlate polymer’s substructures or physico-chemical indexes to FFV. Here, our study first benchmarks the MD simulation protocol to obtain reliable FFV of polymers and then carries out high-throughput MD simulations for more than 6,500 homopolymers and 1,400 polyamides. Such a large and diverse dataset makes the well-trained ML models more generalizable, compared with the group contribution theory. The efficiency of a feed forward neural network model is further demonstrated by applying it to a hypothetical polyimide dataset of more than 8 million chemical structures. The predicted FFVs of hypothetical polyimides are further validated by MD simulations. The obtained FFVs of the 8 million polymers, plus their previously reported gas separation performances, demonstrate the promising capability of ML virtual screening for the discovery of polymer membranes with exceptional permeability/selectivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying System Level Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles in an Urban Corridor

Numerous studies have demonstrated significant energy reduction for an ego vehicle by up to 20% leveraging Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) technologies [1-4]. Some studies have also analyzed the impact of such vehicles on the energy consumption of other vehicles in a suburban or a highway corridor [5, 6], but the impact in an urban setting has not been studied yet. Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), in collaboration with Continental and Hyundai, is currently working on a Department of Energy funded project that is focused on quantifying the impact of multiple ego vehicles (smart vehicles) on the total energy consumption of the corridor under various traffic conditions, vehicle electrification level, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology penetration, and the number of smart (ego) vehicles in an urban setting. A six-kilometer-long urban corridor from Columbus, Ohio was modeled and calibrated with real-world data in PTV Vissim traffic microsimulation software. Five forward-looking powertrain models, consisting of two battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and two internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles, were developed to estimate the energy consumption of vehicles on the corridor. A comprehensive full factorial simulation study was performed. The simulation results indicate that for a traffic mix based on projected new vehicles sales in 2025, a 15% corridor-level energy consumption reduction can be achieved. The paper details the development and validation of the simulation framework, design of experiments conducted, a discussion of challenges faced, and results under various test conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting boron coordination in multicomponent borate and borosilicate glasses using analytical models and machine learning

Accurate prediction of boron coordination in multicomponent glasses is critical in glass science and technology as it strongly affects the properties of borate and borosilicate glasses. We have collected a dataset containing 657 glasses from literature with boron coordination values and developed models using analytical functions based on the well accepted Dell, Xiao and Bray model. Good prediction of boron coordination with a R 2 value higher than 0.8 was obtained. The large variation of boron coordination from experiments, originated from sample preparations and characterizations, led to difficulties in obtaining models with better prediction performance. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated and slightly better prediction performance was observed; however, interpretation of the ML models is less straight forward. In conclusion, this study developed various models capable of providing quantitative boron coordination predictions, providing insights into its structural roles in multi-component glasses, and suggesting fruitful areas for future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Component-Level Inverse Design of Transmon Qubits Using Neural Networks

Designing a superconducting qubit to realize specific Hamiltonian parameters typically requires iterating through a time and compute-intensive forward loop in which the designer chooses a layout geometry, simulates it, extracts circuit parameters such as capacitances, and refines the geometry. We study the inverse version of this task using a neural-network workflow that maps target Hamiltonian parameters directly to component-level layout parameters, which we subsequently demonstrate on a planar transmon layout. During training, we pair the inverse model with a frozen forward surrogate model and evaluate the loss in Hamiltonian space rather than in layout-parameter space. In validation against a conventional EM solver, 97% of generated designs produce usable geometries, and the inverse-plus-surrogate pipeline reaches mean percent errors of 0.73% for qubit frequency and 1.58% for anharmonicity, comparable to or below the fabrication and simulation-to-measurement uncertainty expected for academic-process transmon devices of this type. A single pipeline query takes ~60 ms on CPU, versus ~2 min for a conventional EM capacitance extraction on the same hardware, a speedup of approximately 2,000x. Batching minimizes the AI model inference overhead, reducing the runtime to 3.1 microseconds per sample on CPU and 2.6 microseconds per sample on GPU at a batch size of 2048, resulting in speedups of 3.9 x 10^7 and 4.6 x 10^7, respectively, relative to a single conventional CPU EM extraction. Our results indicate that component-level inverse design usefully extends and complements conventional EM simulation, including for small datasets on the order of 1,000 samples.

Seidel, Olivia [Fermilab; Texas U., Arlington]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invertible neural networks for E3SM land model calibration and simulation

We apply an invertible neural network (INN) for E3SM land model calibration and simulation with eight parameters at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. INN provides bijective (two-way) mappings between inputs and outputs, thus it can solve probabilistic inverse problems and forward approximations simultaneously. We demonstrate INN's inverse and forward capability in both synthetic and real-data applications. Results indicate that INN produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling and it generates model outputs close to the forward model simulations. Additionally, both the inverse and forward evaluations in INN are computationally efficient which allows for rapid integration of observations for parameter estimation and fast model predictions.

Lu, Dan↗