Results for “forward modeling” — Page 21

NASA NTRS2003

Calibration of TOMS Radiances From Ground Observations

Verification of a stratospheric ozone recovery remains a high priority for environmental research and policy definition. Models predict an ozone recovery at a much lower rate than the measured depletion rate observed to date. Therefore improved precision of the satellite and ground ozone observing systems are required over the long term to verify its recovery. We show that validation of radiances from the ground can be a very effective means for correcting long term drifts of backscatter type satellite measurements and can be used to cross calibrate all BUV instruments in orbit (TOMS, SBUV/2, GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2, OMPS). This method bypasses the retrieval algorithms used to derive ozone products from both satellite and ground based measurements that are normally used to validate the satellite data. Radiance comparisons employ forward models, but they are inherently more accurate than the retrieval This method employs very accurate comparisons between ground based zenith sicy radiances and satellite nadir radiances and employs two well established capabilities at the Goddard Space Flight Center, 1) the SSBUV calibration facilities and 2) the radiative transfer codes used for the TOMS and SBUV/2 algorithms and their subsequent refinements. The zenith sky observations are made by the SSBUV where its calibration is maintained to a high degree of accuracy and precision. Radiative transfer calculations show that ground based zenith sky and satellite nadir backscatter ultraviolet comparisons can be made very accurately under certain viewing conditions. Initial ground observations taken from Goddard Space Flight Center compared with radiative transfer calculations has indicated the feasibility of this method. The effect of aerosols and varying ozone amounts are considered in the model simulations and the theoretical comparisons. The radiative transfer simulations show that the ground and satellite radiance comparisons can be made with an uncertainty of less than l\% without the knowledge of the amount ozone viewed by either instrument on ground or in space. algorithms.

Bojkov, B. R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

PRELIMINARY MODEL FOR SOIL MOISTURE RETRIEVAL USING P-BAND RADIOMETER OBSERVATIONS

Soil Moisture is an important geophysical variable that needs reliable quantification for applications in hydrology, meteorology and agriculture. L-band radiometry has proved to be one of the best methods in soil moisture estimation using microwave signals. However, they provide measurements that correspond to a shallow depth of 5 cm and are also affected by the presence of overlaying vegetation and roughness. In contrast, P-band radiometry is expected to provide moisture information on a deeper layer of soil. Moreover, these lower frequency measurements are expected to be less affected by soil roughness and vegetation contributions. Consequently, this pilot study uses the Polarimetric P-band Multi beam Radiometer(PPMR) at 740 MHz to evaluate the response of theP-band radiometer over a realistic range of surface condition sat the field scale. A preliminary framework of P-band MicrowaveEmission of theBiosphere (P-MEB) has been developed as a forward model that simulates brightness temperature from soil moisture and other ancillary data collected from the field. This paper presents the model for the bare soil condition observed during June 2018 to August 2018. The results show that H-polarized PPMR data has better correlation to the soil moisture over a depth of 10 cm than the V-polarized PPMR data. A model is under improvement by incorporating a more suitable effective temperature formulation.

Edward J Kim↗

NASA NTRS2004

Validation of SCIAMACHY and TOMS UV Radiances Using Ground and Space Observations

Verification of a stratospheric ozone recovery remains a high priority for environmental research and policy definition. Models predict an ozone recovery at a much lower rate than the measured depletion rate observed to date. Therefore improved precision of the satellite and ground ozone observing systems are required over the long term to verify its recovery. We show that validation of satellite radiances from space and from the ground can be a very effective means for correcting long term drifts of backscatter type satellite measurements and can be used to cross calibrate all B W instruments in orbit (TOMS, SBW/2, GOME, SCIAMACHY, OM, GOME-2, OMPS). This method bypasses the retrieval algorithms used for both satellite and ground based measurements that are normally used to validate and correct the satellite data. Radiance comparisons employ forward models and are inherently more accurate than inverse (retrieval) algorithms. This approach however requires well calibrated instruments and an accurate radiative transfer model that accounts for aerosols. TOMS and SCIAMACHY calibrations are checked to demonstrate this method and to demonstrate applicability for long term trends.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Approximating and incorporating model uncertainty in an inversion for seismic source functions: Preliminary results

We present preliminary work on propagating model uncertainty into the estimation of the time domain source time functions of the seismic source. Our method is based on an estimated model covariance function, which we estimate from the data. The model covariance function is then used to construct a suite of surrogate Greens functions which we use in a Monte Carlo type inversion scheme. The result is a probability density function of the six independent source time functions, each of which corresponds to an individual component of the seismic moment tensor. We compare the results of our method with those obtained using a computationally expensive finite difference Monte Carlo method and find that our new method produces results that are deficient in low frequencies. The advantage of our new method, which we term the Karhunen-Loeve Monte Carlo (KLMC) method, is that is several orders of magnitude faster than our current method, which uses a finite difference scheme to produce the suite of forward models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Cross Calibration of TOMS, SBUV/2 and Sciamachy Radiances from Ground Observations

Verification of a stratospheric ozone recovery remains a high priority for environmental research and policy definition. Models predict an ozone recovery at a much lower rate than the measured depletion rate observed to date. Therefore improved precision of the satellite and ground ozone observing systems are required over the long term to verify recovery. We have shown that validation of radiances is the most effective means for correcting absolute accuracy and long term drifts of backscatter type satellite measurements. This method by-passes the algorithms used for both satellite and ground based measurements which are normally used to validate and correct the satellite data. Validation of radiances will also improve all higher level data products derived from the satellite observations. Backscatter algorithms suffer from several errors such as unrepresentative a-priori data and air mass factor corrections. Radiance comparisons employ forward models but are inherently more accurate and than inverse (retrieval) algorithms. A new method for satellite validation is planned which will compliment measurements from the existing ground-based networks. This method will employ very accurate comparisons between ground based zenith sky radiances and satellite nadir radiances. These comparisons will rely heavily on the experience derived from the Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) program which provided a reference standard of radiance measurements for SBUV/2, TOMS, and GOME. This new measurement program, called "Skyrad", employs two well established capabilities at the Goddard Space Flight Center, 1) the SSBUV calibration facilities and 2) the radiative transfer codes used for the TOMS and SBUV/2 algorithms and their subsequent refinements. Radiative transfer calculations show that ground based zenith sky and satellite nadir backscatter ultraviolet comparisons can be made very accurately under certain viewing conditions. The Skyrad instruments (SSBUV, Brewer spectrophotometers, and possibly others) will be calibrated and maintained to a precision of a few tenths of a percent. Skyrad data will then enable long term calibration of upcoming satellite instruments such as QuickTOMS. SBUV/2s and SCIAMACHY with a high degree of precision. This technique can be further employed to monitor the performance of future instruments such as GOME-2, OMI, and OMPS. Initial ground observations taken from Goddard Space Flight Center compared with radiative transfer calculations has indicated the feasibility of this method.

Hillsenrath, Ernest↗

DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Plasmaspheric Imaging: A New "Light" Focusing on Familiar Questions

Until recently plasmaspheric physics, for that matter, magnetospheric physics as a whole, has relied primarily on single point in-situ measurement, theory, modeling, and a considerable amount of extrapolation in order to envision the global structure of the plasmasphere. This condition changed with the launch of the IMAGE satellite in March 2000. Using the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) imager on WAGE, we can now view the global structure of the plasmasphere bathed in the glow of resonantly scattered 30.4 nm radiation allowing the space physics community to view the dynamics of this global structure as never before. This talk will: (1) define the plasmasphere from the perspective of plasmaspheric physics prior to March 2000; (2) present a review of EUV imaging optics and the IMAGE mission; and focus on efforts to understand an old and familiar feature of plasmaspheric physics, embedded plasmaspheric density troughs, in this new global light with the assistance of forward modeling.

Adrian, M. L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fast and Accurate Core Analysis by the Full-Immersion Pressure-Pulse Decay: Part 1—Theory

Summary Core-scale measurements are considered the ground truth that oil and gas or electric utility companies use to predict the migration of fluids such as oil, natural gas, carbon dioxide, or brine deep underground during their extraction or injection operations. To provide a greater understanding of petrophysical properties of low-permeability geologic formations such as shales and tight gas sandstones, this study introduces a novel core-analysis procedure. The technique follows conventional pressure-pulse-decay permeametry, where the pressure in an inlet chamber adjacent to a cylindrical core plug undergoes a rapid pressurization, the system is shut in, and the pressure reaches a new equilibrium. However, unlike a standard unidirectional pressure-pulse decay, the full-immersion pressure-pulse decay (Hannon 2019) applies a pressure disturbance to the entire outer surface area of the sample. This article covers the numerical simulator designed to model flow through an anisotropic porous sample in this scenario. The model assumes distinct but uniform permeabilities along the radial and axial directions of the cylindrical plug sample. When extracting a plug vertically (or perpendicular to bedding), the permeability along the radial direction associates with the horizontal permeability (i.e., parallel to bedding), whereas in the axial direction, flow occurs perpendicular to bedding (a vertical permeability). Investigations of these model outputs demonstrate an approximately 20-fold decrease in time to complete a full-immersion experiment compared with conventional pressure-pulse decay. Furthermore, the pressure-decay curves resulting from the full-immersion method have slightly different shapes than those resulting from other unidimensional transient methods. These differences begin to demonstrate that, under achievable experimental conditions, the analysis of pressure data from one full-immersion test could enable the simultaneous estimation of the apparent permeabilities parallel and perpendicular to bedding of a cylindrical sample in addition to its porosity. A follow-up article finalizes the proof of this capability with a parameter-estimation procedure and presents experimental verification through a proof-of-concept study. Described in greater detail in that article, the parameter estimator requires multiple forward simulations to analyze the data, which behooves minimizing the compute time for each simulation. By using an alternating direction implicit time-marching scheme and a structured but variably spaced grid, the numerical simulator built for this purpose provides a forward model output with suitable accuracy in approximately 0.5 seconds.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing the diverse hydrogeology underlying rivers and estuaries using new floating transient electromagnetic methodology

We report the hydrogeology below large surface water features such as rivers and estuaries is universally under-informed at the long reach to basin scales (tens of km+). This challenge inhibits the accurate modeling of fresh/saline groundwater interfaces and groundwater/surface water exchange patterns at management-relevant spatial extents. Here we introduce a towed, floating transient electromagnetic (TEM) system (i.e. FloaTEM) for rapid (up to 15 km/h) high resolution electrical mapping of the subsurface below large water bodies to depths often a factor of 10 greater than other towed instruments. The novel FloaTEM system is demonstrated at a range of diverse 4th through 6th-order riverine settings across the United States including 1) the Farmington River, near Hartford, Connecticut; 2) the Upper Delaware River near Barryville, New York; 3) the Tallahatchie River near Shellmound, Mississippi; and, 4) the Eel River estuary, on Cape Cod, near Falmouth, Massachusetts. Airborne frequency-domain electromagnetic and land-based towed TEM data are also compared at the Tallahatchie River site, and streambed geologic scenarios are explored with forward modeling. A range of geologic structures and pore water salinity interfaces were identified. Process-based interpretation of the case study data indicated FloaTEM can resolve varied sediment-water interface materials, such as the accumulation of fines at the bottom of a reservoir and permeable sand/gravel riverbed sediments that focus groundwater discharge. Bedrock layers were mapped at several sites, and aquifer confining units were defined at comparable resolution to airborne methods. Terrestrial fresh groundwater discharge with flowpaths extending hundreds of meters from shore was also imaged below the Eel River estuary, improving on previous hydrogeological characterizations of that nutrient-rich coastal exchange zone. In summary, the novel FloaTEM system fills a critical gap in our ability to characterize the hydrogeology below surface water features and will support more accurate prediction of groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics and fresh-saline groundwater interfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Diffstar: a fully parametric physical model for galaxy assembly history

We present Diffstar, a smooth parametric model for the in situ star formation history (SFH) of galaxies. The Diffstar model is distinct from traditional SFH models because it is parametrized directly in terms of basic features of galaxy formation physics. Diffstar includes ingredients for: the halo mass assembly history; the accretion of gas into the dark matter halo; the fraction of gas that is eventually transformed into stars, ϵ ms ; the time-scale over which this transformation occurs, τ cons ; and the possibility that some galaxies will experience a quenching event at time t q , and may subsequently experience rejuvenated star formation. We show that our model is sufficiently flexible to describe the average stellar mass histories of galaxies in both the IllustrisTNG (TNG) and UniverseMachine (UM) simulations with an accuracy of ~0.1 dex across most of cosmic time. We use Diffstar to compare TNG to UM in common physical terms, finding that: (i) star formation in UM is less efficient and burstier relative to TNG; (ii) UM galaxies have longer gas consumption time-scales, relative to TNG; (iii) rejuvenated star formation is ubiquitous in UM, whereas quenched TNG galaxies rarely experience sustained rejuvenation; and (iv) in both simulations, the distributions of ϵ ms , τ cons , and t q share a common characteristic dependence upon halo mass, and present significant correlations with halo assembly history. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of how Diffstar can be used in future applications to fit the SEDs of individual observed galaxies, as well as in forward-modelling applications that populate cosmological simulations with synthetic galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Limits on the Abundance and Burial Depth of Lunar Polar Ice

The Diviner imaging radiometer experiment aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter has revealed that surface temperatures in parts of the lunar polar regions are among the lowest in the solar system. Moreover, modeling of these Diviner data using realistic thermal conductivity profiles for lunar regolith and topography-based illumination has been done, with surprising results. Large expanses of circum-polar terrain appear to have near-subsurface temperatures well below 110K, despite receiving episodic low-angle solar illumination [Paige et al., 2010]. These subsurface cold traps could provide areally extensive reservoirs of volatiles. Here we examine the limits to abundance and burial depth of putative volatiles, based on the signature they would create for orbital thermal and epithermal neutrons. Epithermals alone are not sufficient to break the abundance-depth ambiguity, while thermal neutrons provide an independent constraint on the problem. The subsurface cold traps are so large that even modest abundances, well below that inferred from LCROSS observations, would produce readily detectable signatures in the Lunar Prospector neutron spectrometer data [Colaprete et al., 2010]. Specifically, we forward-model the thermal and epithermal neutron leakage flux that would be observed for various ice concentrations, given the depth at which ice stability begins. The LCROSS results point to a water-equivalent hydrogen abundance (WEH) in excess of 10 wt%, when all hydrogenous species are added together (except for H2, detected by LAMP on LRO [Gladstone et al., 2010]). When such an ice abundance is placed in a layer below the stability depth of Paige et al., the epithermal and thermal neutron leakage fluxes are vastly reduced and very much at odds with orbital observations. So clearly an environment that is conducive to cold trapping is necessary but not sufficient for the presence of volatiles such as water. We present the limits on the abundances that are indeed consistent with orbital data. At the LCROSS impact site itself, the data are consistent with very high ice abundances at 50-100 cm depth. However, radar results rule out these high abundances.

Elphic, Richard C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

IRMA

IRMA (In)elastic Representation of Materials As S(α,β) evaluations IRMA turns one phonon model into three outputs that usually require three separate tool chains: an evaluated nuclear-data file, predicted neutron-scattering spectra, and scattering kernels for Monte Carlo transport. The three outputs draw on a single, consistent description of the material, so the evaluation, the spectroscopy that can validate it, and the transport that uses it always agree about the physics. Nuclear data. IRMA writes ENDF-6 File 7 thermal scattering evaluations on automatically constructed (α, β) grids. This part reimplements and generalizes NJOY's LEAPR: the classic kernels reproduce freshly generated NJOY2016 tapes digit for digit and published reference tapes to about 1e-4, and the generalized paths add the exact coherent one-phonon term, anisotropic Debye-Waller tensors, coherent elastic for arbitrary crystals, and a per-species partition for polyatomic materials. The tapes feed NJOY, AMPX, FUDGE, and every transport code downstream of them. Neutron spectroscopy. The irma.spectra forward model projects the same physics onto an instrument's kinematics and resolution: INS spectra for VISION and generic indirect geometries, and 2-D S(Q,E) powder maps for direct-geometry spectrometers, from a phonopy model or straight from a phonon DOS. It can be used to predict a proposed measurement before beam time; in analysis, it supplies the calculated single-scattering counterpart of a measured spectrum, from the same material description the evaluation was built from. Monte Carlo transport. The irma.ncrystal exporter writes per-temperature scattering kernels for the companion NCrystal plugin, so McStas, OpenMC, and other NCrystal-aware codes sample the same physics. The exported kernels carry the per-site anisotropic Debye-Waller tensors, keeping directional coherent-elastic physics that NCrystal's standard scalar treatment does not represent. With the same physics inside a transport code, an entire beamline becomes a virtual experiment: IRMA's end-to-end validation ran a custom McStas implementation of the ARCS spectrometer, assembled from the existing McVine and McStas models, against measured data. From a bare crystal structure. The irma mlip front end builds the phonon model itself: a structure file and a choice of potential are enough. Nine pretrained machine-learned interatomic potentials are supported, on a laptop CPU, with no first-principles calculation; an approximate phonon model for a new material costs minutes, not a DFT campaign, and the build emits prefilled inputs for all three outputs. The result is a good starting point rather than a finished evaluation: survey-quality physics with every parameter exposed for review. A converged atomistic calculation enters the same way, as a phonopy model, when higher fidelity is needed.

Ramic, Kemal [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

NASA NTRS2008

Meridional Circulation in the Sun

Measuring the depth variation of the meridional flows is important for understanding the solar cycle, at least according to a number of dynamo models. While attempting to extend the early observations of Giles (1999; Ph. D. thesis, Stanford Univ.) of time-distance measurements of flow, we have stumbled upon some systematic errors that can affect these measurements: 1) the additional distance traveled by radiation coming from points away from disk center causes an apparent 'shrinking' Sun, that is an apparent flow towards the disk center, 2) in measurements away from the central longitude, the rotation signal can leak into meridional flow signals, and 3) in measurements of the north-south mean travel times along the equator, a spurious error of 6 sec travel time is seen. That the signal is spurious is confirmed by observing half the time with the image rotated 180 degrees. Although this is an effect with mean travel times and not differences, it still seems useful to understand it. Attempts to understand and overcome these systematic problems will be presented. Forward modeling has been done using ray theory to test the sensitivity of travel times to various models.

Duvall, T. L., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of Washington State Prospects: Final Report

The Washington State Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis overcomes the exploration challenges posed by dense vegetation, glacial deposits, and extreme precipitation. The geothermal play-fairways we target are locations where heat, permeability, and saturated porosity are present in sufficient volume to provide adequate heat exchange at depths accessible by modern drilling technology. The three study areas lie along the Cascade Range magmatic arc and are near Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, and the Wind River Valley. The seven-year project is divided into three phases. In Phase 1 we build on a previous statewide assessment of geothermal resources and develop an initial modeling approach. The results are a series of favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps for three targeted study areas. Based on these initial results, we collect new geologic and geophysical data to further refine our modeling and reduce exploration uncertainty in Phase 2. We improve the modeling method to handle the new data and update the favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps. We also update the conceptual geothermal resource models. In Phase 3 we validate our modeling approach by drilling two temperature-gradient holes and collecting and analyzing core, image logs, and new geochemistry. Our modeling approach improves on an earlier statewide method through a more-rigorous and detailed assessment of heat and permeability. Permeability potential is assessed through geomechanical modeling of the deformation that can generate and maintain reservoir porosity and permeability. Metrics to inform heat potential include temperature-gradient wells, which are sparse in Washington; proximity of Quaternary volcanic vents and young intrusive rock; spring temperature; and reservoir temperature inferred from geothermometry. We weight the individual components using an expert-guided approach known as the Analytical Hierarchy Process. During Phase 2 we also develop a fluid-filled fracture model, and an infrastructure model that helps to delineate areas which are more favorable for geothermal development based on proximity to transmission lines, elevation, land ownership and use restrictions, and availability of process water. New geologic and geophysical data is collected during Phase 2 in each of our three main study areas. At Mount Baker and north of Mount St. Helens we conduct 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and lidar analysis to better constrain the location and character of surface faults; detailed mapping in the Wind River Valley was completed just prior to the start of this project. Ages of intrusive rocks are determined with 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology, though all of our samples are Miocene or older. We collect ground based gravity observations (a total of 1,580 new stations) in all of our study areas and ground-based magnetic lines (a total of 93 km) at Mount Baker. These data are combined with existing gravity and aeromagnetic data and used to constrain fault locations and geometry. Two to three cross sections are constructed at each study area using the mapped surface geology and forward-modeling of the gravity and magnetic data; these cross sections form the basis for our updated conceptual models. We collect magnetotelluric surveys at Mount Baker and Mount St. Helens and these data are inverted to form a resistivity model from the surface to about 10 km depth; each model shows conductive zones that can be interpreted as upwelling geothermal fluids. At Mount St. Helens we deploy a passive seismic array and use the newly detected events to refine the location of the Saint Helens seismic zone. We also employ ambient-noise tomography to develop a detailed seismic-velocity model for the study area and use this model to help constrain our cross sections and conceptual model. Based on the new data collected during Phase 2—and our updated models—we develop a campaign of temperature-gradient holes and core analysis to validate our modeling in Phase 3. Drill hole MB76-31 is located near Little Park Creek, 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker, and is 1,471 ft deep. About 410 ft of core from the lower portion of the hole—and image logs from ~175 ft below ground surface to the bottom—are collected and analyzed. Water samples are collected and processed for geothermometry. Drill hole MSH17-24 is located along upper Schultz Creek, 16 km north-northeast of Mount St. Helens and has core from 470 ft to the bottom at 1,053 ft. We did not collect image logs due to borehole stability concerns, but water samples are collected and analyzed for geothermometry. Repeat temperature-gradient measurements are made at both sites and thermal conductivity is measured from core samples. At MB76-31, the equilibrated temperature gradient of 64°C/km and calculated heat flow of 141–159 mW/m 2 is more than twice the regional average. Detailed mapping and analysis of the core, coupled with correlation to the image logs, indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions of high permeability. Because the site has high favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. At site MSH17-24, the equilibrated temperature gradient of ~15°C/km and calculated heat flow of 41–43 mW/m 2 are similar to regional. Geochemical analysis of the water samples indicates a meteoric source without any geothermal component. Detailed outcrop-based mapping of fault exposures near the drill site and analysis of image logs from nearby boreholes indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions. Because the site has low favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. Together, the two sites provide a reasonably positive validation of the Phase 2 modeling and should encourage future use of this modeling approach.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Developments in the Assimilation of Microwave and Radar Observations Into NWP Models

Microwave observations play a very important role in improving the weather forecasts. Although these observations are routinely assimilated into NWP models in clear-sky conditions, assimilation of all-sky microwave observations is very limited. Two main factors contributing to this limitation are inaccuracy in the input cloud and hydrometeor profiles used as input to the radiative transfer model and also error in scattering calculations performed by the radiative transfer model itself. The Mie theory is used by many fast RT models to estimate the optical properties of single particles. The Mie theory assumes spherical shapes for ice or snow particles with mixture of air and ice. However, hydrometeors scattering radiation at microwave frequencies have different shapes, sizes, and orientations. Therefore, using Mie theory to determine their optical properties leads to large uncertainties in all-sky radiative transfer calculations. The discrete dipole approximation (DDA) which approximates the optical properties of large objects in terms of discrete dipoles has shown promise in calculating the scattering properties of particles with different shapes in the microwave frequencies. This presentation focuses on recent advancements in the CRTM scattering calculations for frozen hydrometeors in the microwave frequencies using the DDA technique. In addition to using stand-alone CRTM calculations using collocated ATMS and reanalysis profiles, the data assimilation experiments conducted using the NOAA FV3GFS forecast system are used to evaluate the scattering improvements. Additionally, the backscattering information from the DDA database was used to implement a radar simulator into CRTM. The radar operator takes advantage of CRTM different modules to calculate clouds absorption and scattering properties. In addition to the forward model both adjoint and tangent linear of the radar simulator are implemented and evaluated as well. The radar simulator is currently being tested within the JEDI/GEOS data assimilation framework to facilitate the assimilation of radar measurements such as CloudSat CPR and GPM DPR into the NASA GEOS model.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancing CRTM All-Sky Simulations and Implementation of A New Active Sensor Module

Microwave observations play a very important role in improving the weather forecasts. Although these observations are routinely assimilated into NWP models in clear-sky conditions, assimilation of all-sky microwave observations is very limited. Two main factors contributing to this limitation are inaccuracy in the input cloud and hydrometeor profiles used as input to the radiative transfer model and also error in scattering calculations performed by the radiative transfer model itself. The Mie theory is used by many fast RT models to estimate the optical properties of single particles. The Mie theory assumes spherical shapes for ice or snow particles with mixture of air and ice. However, hydrometeors scattering radiation at microwave frequencies have different shapes, sizes, and orientations. Therefore, using Mie theory to determine their optical properties leads to large uncertainties in all-sky radiative transfer calculations. The discrete dipole approximation (DDA) which approximates the optical properties of large objects in terms of discrete dipoles has shown promise in calculating the scattering properties of particles with different shapes in the microwave frequencies. This presentation focuses on recent advancements in the CRTM scattering calculations for frozen hydrometeors in the microwave frequencies using the DDA technique. In addition to using stand-alone CRTM calculations using collocated ATMS and reanalysis profiles, the data assimilation experiments conducted using the NOAA FV3GFS forecast system are used to evaluate the scattering improvements. Additionally, the backscattering information from the DDA database was used to implement a radar simulator into CRTM. The radar operator takes advantage of CRTM different modules to calculate clouds absorption and scattering properties. In addition to the forward model both adjoint and tangent linear of the radar simulator are implemented and evaluated as well. The radar simulator is currently being tested within the JEDI/GEOS data assimilation framework to facilitate the assimilation of radar measurements such as CloudSat CPR and GPM DPR into the NASA GEOS model.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CRTM Microwave Cloud Scattering Lookup Tables and Radar Simulator

Microwave observations play a very important role in improving the weather forecasts. Although these observations are routinely assimilated into NWP models in clear-sky conditions, assimilation of all-sky microwave observations is very limited. Two main factors contributing to this limitation are inaccuracy in the input cloud and hydrometeor profiles used as input to the radiative transfer model and also error in scattering calculations performed by the radiative transfer model itself. The Mie theory is used by many fast RT models to estimate the optical properties of single particles. The Mie theory assumes spherical shapes for ice or snow particles with mixture of air and ice. However, hydrometeors scattering radiation at microwave frequencies have different shapes, sizes, and orientations. Therefore, using Mie theory to determine their optical properties leads to large uncertainties in all-sky radiative transfer calculations. The discrete dipole approximation (DDA) which approximates the optical properties of large objects in terms of discrete dipoles has shown promise in calculating the scattering properties of particles with different shapes in the microwave frequencies. This presentation focuses on recent advancements in the CRTM scattering calculations for frozen hydrometeors in the microwave frequencies using the DDA technique. In addition to using stand-alone CRTM calculations using collocated ATMS and reanalysis profiles, the data assimilation experiments conducted using the NOAA FV3GFS forecast system are used to evaluate the scattering improvements. Additionally, the backscattering information from the DDA database was used to implement a radar simulator into CRTM. The radar operator takes advantage of CRTM different modules to calculate clouds absorption and scattering properties. In addition to the forward model both adjoint and tangent linear of the radar simulator are implemented and evaluated as well. The radar simulator is currently being tested within the JEDI/GEOS data assimilation framework to facilitate the assimilation of radar measurements such as CloudSat CPR and GPM DPR into the NASA GEOS model.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRS2012

Rainbow Fourier Transform

We present a novel technique for remote sensing of cloud droplet size distributions. Polarized reflectances in the scattering angle range between 135deg and 165deg exhibit a sharply defined rainbow structure, the shape of which is determined mostly by single scattering properties of cloud particles, and therefore, can be modeled using the Mie theory. Fitting the observed rainbow with such a model (computed for a parameterized family of particle size distributions) has been used for cloud droplet size retrievals. We discovered that the relationship between the rainbow structures and the corresponding particle size distributions is deeper than it had been commonly understood. In fact, the Mie theory-derived polarized reflectance as a function of reduced scattering angle (in the rainbow angular range) and the (monodisperse) particle radius appears to be a proxy to a kernel of an integral transform (similar to the sine Fourier transform on the positive semi-axis). This approach, called the rainbow Fourier transform (RFT), allows us to accurately retrieve the shape of the droplet size distribution by the application of the corresponding inverse transform to the observed polarized rainbow. While the basis functions of the proxy-transform are not exactly orthogonal in the finite angular range, this procedure needs to be complemented by a simple regression technique, which removes the retrieval artifacts. This non-parametric approach does not require any a priori knowledge of the droplet size distribution functional shape and is computationally fast (no look-up tables, no fitting, computations are the same as for the forward modeling).

Alexandrov, Mikhail D.↗