Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “extreme value”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The GFDL Variable-Resolution Global Chemistry-Climate Model for Research at the Nexus of US Climate and Air Quality Extremes

We present a variable-resolution global chemistry-climate model (AM4VR) developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes. AM4VR has a horizontal resolution of 13 km over the US, allowing it to resolve urban-to-rural chemical regimes, mesoscale convective systems, and land-surface heterogeneity. With the resolution gradually reducing to 100 km over the Indian Ocean, we achieve multi-decadal simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures at 50% of the computational cost for a 25-km uniform-resolution grid. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.1 contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 100 km resolution, AM4VR features much improved US climate mean patterns and variability. In particular, AM4VR shows improved representation of: precipitation seasonal-to-diurnal cycles and extremes, notably reducing the central US dry-and-warm bias; western US snowpack and summer drought, with implications for wildfires; and the North American monsoon, affecting dust storms. AM4VR exhibits excellent representation of winter precipitation, summer drought, and air pollution meteorology in California with complex terrain, enabling skillful prediction of both extreme summer ozone pollution and winter haze events in the Central Valley. AM4VR also provides vast improvements in the process-level representations of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, interactive dust emissions from land, and removal of air pollutants by terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight the value of increased model resolution in representing climate–air quality interactions through land-biosphere feedbacks. AM4VR offers a novel opportunity to study global dimensions to US air quality, especially the role of Earth system feedbacks in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-depth QAOA circuits and quantum annealing on higher-order ising models

Abstract We present a direct comparison between QAOA (Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz), and QA (Quantum Annealing) on 127 qubit problem instances. QAOA with p = 1, 2 rounds is executed on the 127 qubit heavy-hex graph gate-model quantum computer ibm_washington, using on-device grid-searches for angle finding, and QA is executed on two Pegasus-chip D-Wave quantum annealers. The problems are random Ising models whose connectivity matches heavy-hex graphs and the Pegasus graph connectivity, and optionally include hardware-compatible cubic terms ( Z Z Z terms). The QAOA circuits are heavily optimized and of extremely short depth, with a CNOT depth of 6 per round, which allows whole chip usage of the heavy-hex lattice. QAOA and QA are both compared against simulated annealing and the optimal solutions are computed exactly using CPLEX. The noiseless mean QAOA expectation values for p = 1, 2 are computed using classical light-cone based simulations. We find QA outperforms QAOA on the evaluated devices.

127 qubits↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of anatomical and physiological variability on human equivalent doses using PBPK models

Abstract Addressing human anatomical and physiological variability is a crucial component of human health risk assessment of chemicals. Experts have recommended probabilistic chemical risk assessment paradigms in which distributional adjustment factors are used to account for various sources of uncertainty and variability, including variability in the pharmacokinetic behavior of a given substance in different humans. In practice, convenient assumptions about the distribution forms of adjustment factors and human equivalent doses (HEDs) are often used. Parameters such as tissue volumes and blood flows are likewise often assumed to be lognormally or normally distributed without evaluating empirical data for consistency with these forms. In this work, we performed dosimetric extrapolations using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for dichloromethane (DCM) and chloroform that incorporate uncertainty and variability to determine if the HEDs associated with such extrapolations are approximately lognormal and how they depend on the underlying distribution shapes chosen to represent model parameters. We accounted for uncertainty and variability in PBPK model parameters by randomly drawing their values from a variety of distribution types. We then performed reverse dosimetry to calculate HEDs based on animal points of departure for each set of sampled parameters. Corresponding samples of HEDs were tested to determine the impact of input parameter distributions on their central tendencies, extreme percentiles, and degree of conformance to lognormality. This work demonstrates that the measurable attributes of human variability should be considered more carefully and that generalized assumptions about parameter distribution shapes may lead to inaccurate estimates of extreme percentiles of HEDs.

Toxicology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power Factor revisited

Power factor is a term whose value can be found by dividing the power in a load to the product of the voltage and the current. It has been used as a rule of thumb to estimate the cost of the losses incurred in delivering reactive power. But it has been extremely troublesome. The same load might be penalized by some definitions, and might not by others. That is still the situation today. There have been two efforts at solution. In 1919 a committee of experts was formed to solve the problem of its definition. The effort did not succeed at producing a definition; two alternatives were recommended in the committee’s final report, but both were adopted. In 2010, IEEE issued Standard 1459 to give definitions. In this standard, definitions of power factor appear under no less than seven different headings. The problem demands solution. The matter is of considerable economic importance to power producers, consumers, and instrument makers. This paper examines the history of the topic, and explores reasons for the difficulty of definition in terms of measurement theory. It is shown that power factor is not suited to purpose. In fact, no definition can exist that will define power factor usefully for its intended economic purpose. Two alternatives are proposed.

power factror, definitions, measurement theory, IE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrasting Trends in Colorado Fire Weather Index from Reanalysis and Observations

Recent wildfires in Colorado raise the question of whether rising global temperatures have increased fire weather occurrences in Colorado. The U.S. National Weather Service defines fire weather as when “forecast weather conditions will result in a significant threat for the ignition and/or spread of wildfires.” We use two datasets to address the question: “How has the occurrence of fire weather changed in Colorado?” Using 22 years of observed weather conditions from a meteorological tower at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and 67 years of ERA5 reanalysis data, we assess changing trends in Colorado fire weather as defined by hot, dry, and windy conditions. Additionally, we explore if the difference in recorded wind speeds between observational data and reanalysis data can be explained by differences in spatial and temporal resolution and what are the implications in the context of quantifying fire weather occurrences. The observational data are limited in temporal extent and spatial representativeness, but they capture exact real-world conditions at a location in complex terrain. The reanalysis data are available for an extended period of time and for the entire state, but the data are of relatively coarse spatial and temporal resolution and may fail to capture extremes. To quantify fire risk, we calculate the hot–dry–windy index (HDWI), which relies on wind speed and vapor pressure deficit. No statistically significant trend in the HDWI appears in the observational dataset. However, according to the reanalysis data, strong increasing trends in HDWI values emerge across all of Colorado. This apparent conflict between observational and reanalysis data suggests that reanalysis data may not be representative. Further, more long-term observational datasets are required to assess fire risk.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

AI-Based Faster-Than-Real-Time Stability Assessment of Large Power Systems with Applications on WECC System

Achieving clean energy goals will require significant advances in regard to addressing the computational needs for next-generation renewable-dominated power grids. One critical obstacle that lies in the way of transitioning today’s power grid to a renewable-dominated power grid is the lack of a faster-than-real-time stability assessment technology for operating a fast-changing power grid. This paper proposes an artificial intelligence (AI) -based method that predicts the system’s stability margin information (e.g., the frequency nadir in the frequency stability assessment and the critical clearing time (CCT) value in the transient stability assessment) directly from the system operating conditions without performing the conventional time-consuming time-domain simulations over detailed dynamic models. Since the AI method shifts the majority of the computational burden to offline training, the online evaluation is extremely fast. This paper has tested the AI-based stability assessment method using multiple dispatch cases that are converted and tuned from actual dispatch cases of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model with more than 20,000 buses. The results show that the AI-based method could accurately predict the stability margin of such a large power system in less than 0.2 milliseconds using the offline-trained AI agent. Therefore, the proposed method has great potential to achieve faster-than-real-time stability assessment for practical large power systems while preserving sufficient accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

129 I, 99 Tc, and U Distribution Coefficients of Subsurface Sediments Collected from the Proposed Site of the Environmental Management Disposal Facility

Performance Assessment calculations were completed in 2020 to evaluate the Environmental Management Disposal Facility (EMDF), a proposed new low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal facility on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Among the large number of input parameters needed for such calculations, are distribution coefficients (K d values; radionuclide concentration solid: liquid ratio) that provide a measure of the tendency of radionuclides to bind to sediments. The objective of this study was to measure K d values of three radionuclides that may pose a disproportionately large amount of risk, U, iodine-129 ( 129 I) and technetium-99 ( 99 Tc). The average 129 I K d value for the 14 geological materials recovered from the proposed EMDF site was 37.8 mL/g and ranged from 0.45 to 140.9 mL/g. These values were consistent, but somewhat larger than previous measurements made with ORR sediments and were about an order of magnitude greater than those used in previous EMDF PA calculations. The median 99 Tc K d value was 365.7 mL/g, much greater than previously reported using ORR geological materials. Five of the 14 tested geological materials sorbed large quantities of 99 Tc, suggesting that the weakly sorbing 99 Tc(VII) species had been reduced to the sparingly soluble 99 Tc(IV) species. The five strongly sorbing sediments had apparent 99 Tc solubility values of approximately <10 -8 mol/L. The median U K d value was 5,726 mL/g. All of the tested geological materials had large K d values, ranging from 625 to >10,208 mL/g. Among the sediment samples that exhibited strong U binding, the apparent solubility value was approximately <10 -9 mol/L. Based on sediment properties and general ORR geological considerations, it was proposed that much of the 129 I and 99 Tc retention could be attributed to the site materials exhibiting low pH (average pH = 4.94), and/or the elevated levels of iron oxides, manganese oxides, and natural organic matter. Similarly, the extremely high U binding measured in these sediments may also be attributed to the low conditions of carbonates, which can complex and therefore solubilize uranyl in these tests due to the low pH, and also the relatively high concentrations of iron and organic coatings on these samples. An implication of this study is that the areas of the EMDF subsurface environment may have natural properties for attenuating 129 I, 99 Tc, and U movement, and potentially other radionuclides, thereby possibly reducing risk posed by burial of LLW at this site.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Historical Extreme Weather Event Impacts

Resilience planning, particularly energy and water resilience planning, has been a key priority for the federal government for many years, leading federal agencies to develop processes for identifying and addressing critical resilience gaps at their facilities and sites. Furthermore, recent federal policy is driving agencies to prioritize climate change impacts as a more central component of their resilience planning efforts. To achieve this, federal sites must understand their vulnerability to climate change, which involves identifying climate hazards projected to impact the site (known as exposure), as well as understanding the sensitivity (the degree to which a site, including its people and the things they value, could be harmed by that exposure), and adaptive capacity of the site (the degree to which the site could lessen bathe potential for harm by taking action to reduce exposure and sensitivity). To assess and understand sensitivity and adaptive capacity, it is important to first obtain a baseline and understand how a site has been impacted by past events, in addition to considering the potential for unprecedented impacts based on climate projections. This information paper highlights current limitations for developing event history assessments and suggests a framework for more consistently capturing key data points. The purpose of this paper is to help inform how organizations could begin structuring a comprehensive process for recording the impacts of extreme weather events in order to facilitate climate vulnerability assessments, and thus, resilience planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structure-property correlation in stabilizing axial magnetic anisotropy in octahedral Co(II) complexes

Stabilizing an easy axis of magnetization in an octahedral Co(II) complex is an extremely challenging task, which is evident from reports that more than 90% possess easy-plane anisotropy. Here, we report a six-coordinate complex, [Co(L 1 ) 4 (Cl) 2 ] (1, L 1 = thiourea [H 2 N-CS-NH 2 ]), that exhibits a D value of -63(10) cm -1 . The presence of an easy axis of magnetization associated with 1 is experimentally proven by detailed magnetic studies and polarized neutron diffraction studies, and the experimental observations are well corroborated by theoretical calculations. From the combined experimental and theoretical investigations (on 1 and many model systems), we unveil the parameters that control stabilization of negative D in a thermodynamically favorable and air-stable Co(II) ion in the common distorted octahedral geometry. This study paves the way for overcoming the current impediments to alleviate the easy axis of magnetization using rational ligand choice.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analog pile-up circuit technique using a single capacitor for the readout of Skipper-CCD detectors

With Skipper-CCD detectors it is possible to take multiple samples of the charge packet collected on each pixel. After averaging the samples, the noise can be extremely reduced allowing the exact counting of electrons per pixel. In this work we present an analog circuit that, with a minimum number of components, applies a double slope integration (DSI) and at the same time averages the multiple samples, producing at its output the pixel value with sub-electron noise. For this purpose, we introduce the technique of using the DSI integrator capacitor to add the skipper samples. An experimental verification using discrete components is presented, together with an analysis of its noise sources and limitations. After averaging 400 samples it was possible to reach a readout noise of 0.18 e- rms/pix, comparable to other available readout systems. Due to its simplicity and significant reduction of the sampling requirements, this circuit technique is of particular interest in particle experiments and cameras with a high density of Skipper-CCDs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Domestic Extremism: How to Counter Threats Posed to Critical Assets

Although facilities with sensitive information, hazardous materials, critical infrastructure, or other sensitive items have security measures in place to protect those critical assets, the threat of domestic extremism (DE) has challenged those security measures in new ways. The project described in this brief report used focus groups to identify best practices, tools, or techniques relevant to preventing or countering DE and sought to identify gaps in security measures. Five focus groups with twenty-two subject matter experts from government, healthcare, and other stakeholder groups were conducted to understand how organizations protect critical assets against the DE threat. The results of the focus groups underscore the importance of organizational culture, codes of conduct, and behavior observation programs in prevention of DE events. In addition, results emphasized the value of multidisciplinary teams, employee assistance programs, and regular threat assessment as resources when responding to DE incidents. However, monitoring of social media and lack of adequate resources remain challenges when attempting to prevent or counter the DE threat.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2025

Determination of nuclear charge radius by extreme-ultraviolet spectroscopy of Na-like ions

We report on a method for determining the absolute nuclear charge radius of high-𝑍 elements using extreme-ultraviolet spectroscopy of highly charged Na-like ions in tandem with highly accurate atomic structure calculations of transition energy differences. The application of this method has reduced the nuclear charge radius uncertainty of 191 Ir by a factor of 8 from the currently accepted literature value, with a recently reported charge radius of 5.435(12) fm. The result reduces the charge radius uncertainty along the full Ir isotopic chain when combined with prior optical isotope shift measurements. The technique utilizes only a few million ions stored in an ion trap, which should apply to measurements with small quantities of radioactive nuclei.

Atom & ion trapping & guiding↗
DOE OSTI2022

CLASS: Coronal Line Activity Spectroscopic Survey

We conduct the first systematic survey of a comprehensive set of the twenty optical coronal lines in the spectra of nearly 1 million galaxies observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 8 catalog. This includes often overlooked high ionization potential lines such as [Ar x] λ5533, [S XII ] λ7609, [Fe XI ] λ7892, and [Fe XIV ] λ5303. We find that, given the limited sensitivity of SDSS, strong coronal line emission is extremely rare, with only ~0.03% of the sample showing at least one coronal line, significantly lower than the fraction of galaxies showing optical narrow line ratios (~17%) or mid-infrared colors (~2%) indicative of nuclear activity. The coronal line luminosities exhibit a large dynamic range, with values ranging from ~10 34 to 10 42 erg s –1 . We find that a vast majority (~80%) of coronal line emitters in dwarf galaxies (M $\star$ < 9.6 × 10 9 M ⊙ ) do not display optical narrow line ratios indicative of nuclear activity, in contrast to higher mass galaxies (~17%). Moreover, we find that the highest ionization potential lines are preferentially found in lower mass galaxies. These findings are consistent with the theory that lower mass black holes found in lower mass galaxies produce a hotter accretion disk, which in turn enhances the higher ionization coronal line spectrum. Future coronal line searches with 30 m class telescopes or JWST may provide a pathway into uncovering the intermediate mass black hole population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental and Modeled Assessment of Interventions to Reduce PM2.5 in a Residence during a Wildfire Event

Increasingly large and frequent wildfires affect air quality even indoors by emitting and dispersing fine/ultrafine particulate matter known to pose health risks to residents. With this health threat, we are working to help the building science community develop simplified tools that may be used to estimate impacts to large numbers of homes based on high-level housing characteristics. In addition to reviewing literature sources, we performed an experiment to evaluate interventions to mitigate degraded indoor air quality. We instrumented one residence for one week during an extreme wildfire event in the Pacific Northwest. Outdoor ambient concentrations of PM2.5 reached historic levels, sustained at over 200 μg/m3 for multiple days. Outdoor and indoor PM2.5 were monitored, and data regarding building characteristics, infiltration, and mechanical system operation were gathered to be consistent with the type of information commonly known for residential energy models. Two conditions were studied: a high-capture minimum efficiency rated value (MERV 13) filter integrated into a central forced air (CFA) system, and a CFA with MERV 13 filtration operating with a portable air cleaner (PAC). With intermittent CFA operation and no PAC, indoor corrected concentrations of PM2.5 reached 280 μg/m3, and indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios reached a mean of 0.55. The measured I/O ratio was reduced to a mean of 0.22 when both intermittent CFA and the PAC were in operation. Data gathered from the test home were used in a modeling exercise to assess expected I/O ratios from both interventions. The mean modeled I/O ratio for the CFA with an MERV 13 filter was 0.48, and 0.28 when the PAC was added. The model overpredicted the MERV 13 performance and underpredicted the CFA with an MERV 13 filter plus a PAC, though both conditions were predicted within 0.15 standard deviation. The results illustrate the ways that models can be used to estimate indoor PM2.5 concentrations in residences during extreme wildfire smoke events.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal band structure for thermoelectrics with realistic scattering and bands

Abstract Understanding how to optimize electronic band structures for thermoelectrics is a topic of long-standing interest in the community. Prior models have been limited to simplified bands and/or scattering models. In this study, we apply more rigorous scattering treatments to more realistic model band structures—upward-parabolic bands that inflect to an inverted-parabolic behavior—including cases of multiple bands. In contrast to common descriptors (e.g., quality factor and complexity factor), the degree to which multiple pockets improve thermoelectric performance is bounded by interband scattering and the relative shapes of the bands. We establish that extremely anisotropic “flat-and-dispersive” bands, although best-performing in theory, may not represent a promising design strategy in practice. Critically, we determine optimum bandwidth, dependent on temperature and lattice thermal conductivity, from perfect transport cutoffs that can in theory significantly boost z T beyond the values attainable through intrinsic band structures alone. Our analysis should be widely useful as the thermoelectric research community eyes z T > 3.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance of Convection-Permitting and Convection-Parameterized Models in Reproducing the Extreme Precipitation Intensity Relationship with Surface Conditions

Here, this study investigates the warm-season extreme precipitation–temperature scaling relationship in CONUS404, a convection-permitting (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation over the conterminous United States for the past four decades, and compares it with the WRF-Thermodynamic Global Warming (WRF-TGW) historical simulation at a coarser resolution (12 km) using parameterized convection. We also analyze the NCEP stage IV and NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) datasets as observational benchmarks. We examine how extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) varies with temperature and saturation deficit over representative regions based on hourly data. The stage IV and IMERG data show a similar pattern of EPI variation with temperature and saturation deficit, except that the EPI peak is lower in IMERG than in stage IV. Under dry and hot conditions, EPI decreases too rapidly with elevated saturation deficit in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW compared to observations, but the performance of CONUS404 is superior to WRF-TGW. When the near-surface atmosphere is saturated or close to saturated, both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW produce higher peak values of EPI relative to the observational references; IMERG exhibits scaling rates close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship, while CONUS404, WRF-TGW, and stage IV all demonstrate super-C–C scaling behaviors. Despite marked warming over the past four decades, in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW, the scaling relationship between EPI and temperature in a saturated atmosphere remains stable and robust. This indicates a strong potential for the EPI–temperature scaling rate under saturation to be used as an emergent constraint in reducing uncertainties of future extreme precipitation projection.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid-Integrated Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels from Nuclear Power

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the relative economic profitability of an integrated energy system (IES) coupling an NPP with a synfuel production process at selected case study locations across the United States. In the synfuel IES, a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant is thermally and electrically coupled with an NPP to produce zero-carbon hydrogen. The synthetic fuel is produced from this H 2 combined with a CO 2 supply using the reverse water gas shift process followed by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. This analysis considers a system in which the CO 2 is sourced from regional CO 2 emitters via the construction and operation of pipeline-based CO 2 supply networks. Locating the FT plant at the same site as the NPP and HTSE plants enables the NPP to provide zero-carbon heat and power to the HTSE plant and zero-carbon power to the FT plant as well as avoid the requirement for long-distance H 2 product transport from the HTSE plant to the FT plant. Hydrogen storage is used to enable the NPP to dispatch power to the electrical grid (instead of the HTSE plant) when grid demand increases, thus enabling the FT plant to continue to operate in a steady-state production mode. The ability to cease hydrogen production for several hours within each day enables the NPP to provide power to the grid to balance the electricity market during peak periods and maximize revenues for the nuclear synfuel IES. The FT process design considered has a 99% carbon conversion efficiency. The use of nuclear energy and nuclear energy-derived hydrogen enables synfuel production to achieve this high level of carbon utilization. Additionally, the life-cycle carbon emissions of the nuclear-based synfuel production process are very low, with WTW emissions of approximately 25 gCO 2 e/MJ, including steam credits (generated from FT process excess heat), and approximately 7 gCO 2 e/MJ, if steam credits are excluded. This compares favorably with the WTW emissions of 90.5 gCO 2 e/MJ for a compression-ignition, direct injection (CIDI) vehicle with a fuel economy of 31.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (MPGGE), using low-sulfur diesel produced using conventional petroleum production and refining processes. Several NPPs in various regions of the U.S. are considered as case study analyses. Supply locations and transportation via pipeline of the CO 2 feedstock to the NPP site are analyzed through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Transport Cost model. The team finds that the amount of CO 2 generated by different sectors is sufficient for the synfuel production process at all locations considered. The CO 2 transportation costs are functions of the distance of the source to the NPP location, the CO 2 capture cost at the source, and the quantity of CO 2 transported. Historical electricity prices for the NPP case study locations are collected and analyzed. Monthly average prices, price range, and duration of negative-price periods vary among these locations. For each location, an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is trained on historical electricity price data. ARMA validation is done to ensure the synthetic price distributions represent one of historical prices with high fidelity. Synthetic time series from these ARMA models are used in a coupled dispatch and system optimization in the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to compute the differential net present value (NPV) of the IES. The team finds that this econometric is positive, ranging from $14M–1.3bn (2020) depending on the location. The optimal synfuel IES configuration to obtain this increase in NPV often maximizes the size of the synfuel production process with regards to the size of the NPP. However, the team shows that the NPP still plays a stabilizing role for the grid: In periods of high prices and high loads, more electricity from the NPP is sent to the grid. A high variability of electricity prices and extreme maximum prices tend to drive up electricity production. While it requires significant investment, the synfuel IES could increase the economic profitability for the existing fleet of LWRs across the country while still maintaining the grid stabilizer role of NPPs. During its lifetime, the main costs for the nuclear synfuel IES are the carbon feedstock transportation costs, followed by the capital expenses (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs while the revenue comes first from the IRA H 2 production tax credit (PTC) and then from the sales of synfuel products. The profitability of the synfuel IES is most sensitive to the value of the hydrogen PTC and the synfuel products as well as the cost of the carbon feedstock, highlighting the importance of governmental incentives regarding hydrogen, carbon emissions, and synfuel in driving the deployment of future nuclear synfuel IESs.

08 HYDROGEN↗