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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear and robustness to modeling uncertainty

Here, this work and its companion paper, Amon et al. [Phys. Rev. D 105, 023514 (2022)], present cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints from over 100 million source galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data. We constrain the lensing amplitude parameter 𝑆 8 ≡𝜎 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ at the 3% level in Λ⁢ CDM: 𝑆 8 =0.75⁢9$^{+0.025}_{−0.023}$ (68% CL). Our constraint is at the 2% level when using angular scale cuts that are optimized for the Λ⁢ CDM analysis: 𝑆 8 =0.77⁢2$^{+0.018}_{−0.017}$ (68% CL). With cosmic shear alone, we find no statistically significant constraint on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter at our present statistical power. We carry out our analysis blind, and compare our measurement with constraints from two other contemporary weak lensing experiments: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) and Hyper-Suprime Camera Subaru Strategic Program (HSC). We additionally quantify the agreement between our data and external constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Our DES Y3 result under the assumption of Λ⁢ CDM is found to be in statistical agreement with Planck 2018, although favors a lower 𝑆 8 than the CMB-inferred value by 2.3⁢𝜎 (a 𝑝-value of 0.02). This paper explores the robustness of these cosmic shear results to modeling of intrinsic alignments, the matter power spectrum and baryonic physics. We additionally explore the statistical preference of our data for intrinsic alignment models of different complexity. The fiducial cosmic shear model is tested using synthetic data, and we report no biases greater than 0.3⁢𝜎 in the plane of 𝑆 8 ×Ω m caused by uncertainties in the theoretical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Calibration strategy of the PROSPECT-II detector with external and intrinsic sources

This paper presents an energy calibration scheme for an upgraded reactor antineutrino detector for the Precision Reactor Oscillation and Spectrum Experiment (PROSPECT). The PROSPECT collaboration is preparing an upgraded detector, PROSPECT-II (P-II), to advance capabilities for the investigation of fundamental neutrino physics, fission processes and associated reactor neutrino flux, and nuclear security applications. P-II will expand the statistical power of the original PROSPECT (P-I) dataset by at least an order of magnitude. The new design builds upon previous P-I design and focuses on improving the detector robustness and long-term stability to enable multi-year operation at one or more sites. The new design optimizes the fiducial volume by elimination of dead space previously occupied by internal calibration channels, which in turn necessitates the external deployment. In this paper, we describe a calibration strategy for P-II. Here, the expected performance of externally deployed calibration sources is evaluated using P-I data and a well-benchmarked simulation package by varying detector segmentation configurations in the analysis. The proposed external calibration scheme delivers a compatible energy scale model and achieves comparable performance with the inclusion of an additional AmBe neutron source, in comparison to the previous internal arrangement. Most importantly, the estimated uncertainty contribution from the external energy scale calibration model meets the precision requirements of the P-II experiment.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Redshift Calibration of the Weak Lensing Source Galaxies

Determining the distribution of redshifts for galaxies in wide-field photometric surveys is essential for robust cosmological studies of weak gravitational lensing. We present the methodology, calibrated redshift distributions, and uncertainties of the final Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (Y6) weak lensing galaxy data, divided into four redshift bins centered at $\langle z \rangle = [0.414, 0.538, 0.846, 1.157]$. We combine independent information from two methods on the full shape of redshift distributions: optical and near-infrared photometry within an improved Self-Organizing Map $p(z)$ (SOMPZ) framework, and cross-correlations with spectroscopic galaxy clustering measurements (WZ), which we demonstrate to be consistent both in terms of the redshift calibration itself and in terms of resulting cosmological constraints within 0.1$σ$. We describe the process used to produce an ensemble of redshift distributions that account for several known sources of uncertainty. Among these, imperfection in the calibration sample due to the lack of faint, representative spectra is the dominant factor. The final uncertainty on mean redshift in each bin is $σ_{\langle z\rangle} = [0.012, 0.008,0.009, 0.024]$. We ensure the robustness of the redshift distributions by leveraging new image simulations and a cross-check with galaxy shape information via the shear ratio (SR) method.

Yin, B. [Duke U.] (ORCID:0009000656049980)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interplay between phonon downconversion efficiency, density of states at Fermi energy, and intrinsic energy resolution for microwave kinectic inductance detectors

Microwave Kinetic Inductance detectors (MKIDs) have been recognized as a powerful new tool for single photon detection. These highly multiplexed superconducting devices give timing and energy measurement for every detected photon. However, the full potential of MKID single photon spectroscopy has not been reached , the achieved energy resolution is lower than expected from first principles. Here, we study the efficiency in the phonon downconversion process following the absorption of energetic photons in MKIDs. Assuming previously published material properties, we measure an average downconversion efficiency for three TiN resonators is $\eta$=0.14. We discuss how this efficiency can impact the intrinsic energy resolution of MKID, and how any uncertainty in the unknown density of electron states at the Fermi energy directly affects the efficiency estimations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050

Wind energy has experienced accelerated cost reduction over the past five years—far greater than predicted in a 2015 expert elicitation. Here we report results from a new survey on wind costs, compare those with previous results and discuss the accuracy of the earlier predictions. In this work, we show that experts in 2020 expect future onshore and offshore wind costs to decline 37–49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than predicted in 2015. This is due to cost reductions witnessed over the past five years and expected continued advancements. If realized, these costs might allow wind to play a larger role in energy supply than previously anticipated. Considering both surveys, we also conclude that there is considerable uncertainty about future costs. Our results illustrate the importance of considering cost uncertainty, highlight the value and limits of using experts to reveal those uncertainties, and yield possible lessons for energy modellers and expert elicitation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Acoustic and Genetic Data Can Reduce Uncertainty Regarding Populations of Migratory Tree-Roosting Bats Impacted by Wind Energy

Wind turbine-related mortality may pose a population-level threat for migratory tree-roosting bats, such as the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) in North America. These species are dispersed within their range, making it impractical to estimate census populations size using traditional survey methods. Nonetheless, understanding population size and trends is essential for evaluating and mitigating risk from wind turbine mortality. Using various sampling techniques, including systematic acoustic sampling and genetic analyses, we argue that building a weight of evidence regarding bat population status and trends is possible to (1) assess the sustainability of mortality associated with wind turbines; (2) determine the level of mitigation required; and (3) evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures to ensure population viability for these species. Long-term, systematic data collection remains the most viable option for reducing uncertainty regarding population trends for migratory tree-roosting bats. We recommend collecting acoustic data using the statistically robust North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) protocols and that genetic diversity is monitored at repeated time intervals to show species trends. There are no short-term actions to resolve these population-level questions; however, we discuss opportunities for relatively short-term investments that will lead to long-term success in reducing uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Analytic Benchmark for Neutron Boltzmann Transport with Downscattering—Part IV: PFNS and $\bar{ν}$ Uncertainty Propagation

An analytic benchmark with continuous-energy cross sections was previously derived to validate criticality calculations. Here, to extend the utility of the analytic benchmark to verify the implementation of $\bar{ν}$ and prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) uncertainty propagation methods, new simplified forms that are dependent on the incident (fission-causing) neutron energy, as well as the outgoing neutron energy for the PFNS, are introduced in this work. The analytical forms for the flux and adjoint flux are derived for the extended benchmark and used to determine the 𝑘-eigenvalue sensitivity to $\bar{ν}$ and PFNS. The 𝑘-eigenvalue uncertainty due to $\bar{ν}$ and PFNS is calculated for the analytic benchmark using simplified$\bar{ν}$ and PFNS representations based on the ENDF-B/VIII.0 239 Pu evaluation. Because of the low sensitivity of the analytic benchmark to the physical PFNS, a nonphysical high-sensitivity PFNS is also presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between National Energy Technology Laboratory and VariGrid Explorations Inc. [Final Report]

The scope of this project is to advance the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Variable Grid Method (VGM) technology to commercial status thought enhancements upon prior work to produce a VGM application that can rapidly quantify multiple types of data and uncertainty commonly encountered by the subsurface energy industry. Along with development, the project will also include technology demonstrations, through applications using common industry data types and uncertainty metrics, to stress the value the VGM can offer the subsurface energy industry by providing an improved understanding of the strengths and limitations of their data, models, and analytical results. The resulting commercially ready VGM will offer interoperability with common industry software applications to ensure broad ‘plug and play’ functionality that will help keep costs relatively low and foster more rapid industry adoption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Marine energy supported multi-energy system planning and operation optimization for sustainable coastal community

The growing need for sustainable energy solutions in coastal areas necessitates the development of integrated systems that leverage abundant marine resources. In this study, a standalone Marine Energy Supported Multi-Energy System (MRE-MES) is designed for sustainable coastal community development, utilizing renewable marine resources, including offshore wind, wave, and solar energy, to address the energy needs of electricity, heat, freshwater, and hydrogen. The proposed MRE-MES incorporates a co-optimization model that simultaneously balances capacity planning and operational efficiency to minimize costs and environmental impacts. The system is tested under different renewable energy penetration levels and demand uncertainties, using a two-stage stochastic programming to account for variability in renewable resources and consumption needs. The experimental results indicate that in the optimal system capacity configuration, the percentage of total renewable energy generation is around 80 %, with or without capacity limitation constraints on PV, water tank, and hydrogen storage. Compared to the worst-case scenario in Monte Carlo experiments, two-stage stochastic optimization results in a more robust decision that effectively mitigates the risks posed by future uncertain demand conditions. In conclusion, the findings highlight the viability of marine energy for providing a resilient, comprehensive energy solution to coastal communities.

Capacity planning↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Refined Method to Translate Solar Data Quality Assessment Flags to Estimated Measurement Uncertainty

Integrating solar resource uncertainties due to radiometer measurement performance and operational data quality assessment can provide improved estimates of economic bankability, system design performance, and compliance of solar energy conversion systems. Estimating radiometer measurement uncertainty is an established procedure consistent with recognized best practices and international guidelines. SERI QC is a robust solar data quality assessment software tool that has been in continuous use for more than three decades. This report, the fourth of six for the Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration Project, presents a refined algorithm description for software to translate solar resource data quality assessment results into estimated uncertainty values in a Solar Resource Operational Uncertainty Integrator (SROUI) application. This algorithm requires three-component solar irradiance measurements - global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, and diffuse horizontal irradiance - collected at 1- to 60-minute intervals, as described in the previous deliverables. The development of this report as Deliverable 6.4 was an iterative process that included reviews and feedback from the project team on initial drafts designed to refine how the new software could best support determining solar resource data uncertainty. The results of this effort will contribute to the final software system development by National Renewable Energy Laboratory staff.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Interplay Between Climate and Urban Expansion on Building Energy Demand in Morocco

Understanding building energy demand is critical for addressing climate uncertainty challenges and ensuring sustainable urban growth. This study develops a building energy demand (BED) model to explore how climate variation and urban expansion affect residential and commercial space heating and cooling demands in Morocco for three scenarios, namely, 2005, 2018, and 2018 + 1.5 °C. The results show that coastal cities have lower heating and cooling needs due to the oceanic influence, while interior cities require significantly higher heating demand per-unit-floorspace. Between 2005 and 2018, urban growth increased total heating and cooling demand by 218.8 GWh, particularly in northern and coastal regions, despite per-unit-floorspace reductions in milder climates and improved building efficiency in 2018. Residential heating remains the dominant energy use, though commercial demand is significant in urban centers. Under the 2018 + 1.5 °C hypothetical scenario, heating demand across Morocco declines by 335.8 GWh compared to 2018, with urban areas amplifying this trend. Meanwhile, cooling demand increases slightly by 44.4 GWh, with major cities experiencing relative increases of up to 50%. These findings highlight a trade-off where reduced winter heating needs are partly offset by increased summer cooling demands in densely urbanized areas. In conclusion, the study identifies key urban hotspots for targeted interventions, emphasizing the need for energy-efficient building designs, climate-adaptive urban planning, and resilient energy management strategies to sustainably address shifting seasonal energy patterns.

Morocco↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Coefficients Calculated for the Prompt Neutron Decay Constant At or Near Delayed Critical

The derivation of a non-invasive prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficient is provided in this work. The computation of the sensitivity coefficient derived in this work does not require modification of Monte Carlo source code and is based on capabilities available in Monte Carlo N-Particle R© Code Version 6.2. The prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients are calculated for 44-group and 252-group energy structures for specific nuclide-reaction pairs in the Jezebel benchmark experiment. The nuclide-reaction pairs investigated in this work include Pu- 239(n,f), Pu-240(n,f), and Pu-241(n,f). Physical explanations of the sensitivity profiles exhibited by the 252-group energy structure are investigated for the prompt neutron multiplication factor, mean neutron lifetime, and prompt neutron decay constant. The prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients calculated for the 44-group and 252-group energy structure of Pu-239(n,f) are compared. Lastly, the 44-group energy structure sensitivity coefficients calculated are used for nuclear-data induced uncertainty quantification of the neutron multiplication factor. This work shows that a reduction in the nuclear data-induced uncertainty of the neutron multiplication factor is possible for all nuclide-reaction pairs investigated when prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients are utilized. This is important for new critical experiment design optimization studies of measurement configurations. This work provides a basis for more detailed sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of nuclide, reaction, and energy-specific cross section data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land use and turbine technology influences on wind potential in the United States

As clean energy ambitions have expanded, critically evaluating renewable energy supply has become increasingly important to the energy research community and stakeholders. This study examines the onshore wind resource potential for the conterminous United States and its sensitivity to siting constraints and turbine technology innovation. We compile localized regulatory information and use high-resolution data to present multiple siting regimes covering relatively constrained to unconstrained potentials. Our efforts reveal high sensitivity to these variables and sizable uncertainty in the overall wind energy resource potential. Specifically, we find that siting constraints may shift the total capacity available to commercial wind energy by 2.3–15.1 TW. Furthermore, our results illustrate that technology advancement could require larger setbacks from buildings and infrastructure, reducing the total available capacity potential by 20% relative to estimates using current technology, but that this reduction is largely offset by increased generation such that the net effect on generation is 1%. The observed sensitivity to and uncertainty resulting from the variables we analyze suggest there is value in continued study and development of increasingly sophisticated approaches to characterizing wind resource potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monte Carlo Analyses of the FOEHN Experiment

The FOEHN critical experiment, which has been carried out at Cadarache (France) in the reactor EOLE in the early 70s, was designed to verify RHF design analyses. This study focuses on the impact of the FOEHN experiment uncertainties on the calculation of the energy deposition. The latter has been obtained by the Monte Carlo codes Serpent and MCNP. In the calculation of the energy deposition, the first code relies on KERMA factors whereas the latter code relies on Q-values. The two Monte Carlo codes share the same geometry and material specifications. In addition to the design and experiment parameters uncertainties, nuclear data also impacts the calculation of the energy deposition. In this study, the MCNP simulations use three different nuclear data library sets: ENDF/B versions VII.0, VII.1, and VIII.0. Finally, the ksens card of MCNP, using perturbation theory, has been used to identify the cross sections and isotopes with largest impact on the effective multiplication factor. By showing that the use of different software and computational methodologies and design parameters uncertainties do not significantly impact the core power distribution, this work demonstrate the appropriateness of the tools and methods employed for the conversion of involute-plate reactors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Online eco-routing for electric vehicles using combinatorial multi-armed bandit with estimated covariance

Identifying energy-efficient routes in real-time has significant implications for the energy-optimal operations of electric vehicles (EVs). Here, this study proposes a novel model for EV online eco-routing problem, which obtains the minimal expected energy consumption paths (MECPs) for multiple origin-destination (OD) pairs simultaneously. Specifically, we formulate the routing problem as a bandit problem and solve it with online algorithms. We extend the algorithms by implementing a path elimination mechanism to reduce the candidate path set and introducing the variance and covariance of the energy consumption to reduce the uncertainties. The numerical results show that the proposed algorithms can efficiently obtain near-optimal MECPs, and the solution is significantly better than the widely used shortest trip time path algorithm (STTP) and shortest trip distance path algorithm (SDP). The variation considering link energy covariance and path elimination generates paths that save 4.1% of energy compared to the SDP and 5.4% to the STTP.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2002

Micro-Pulse Lidar Signals: Uncertainty Analysis

Micro-pulse lidar (MPL) systems are small, autonomous, eye-safe lidars used for continuous observations of the vertical distribution of cloud and aerosol layers. Since the construction of the first MPL in 1993, procedures have been developed to correct for various instrument effects present in MPL signals. The primary instrument effects include afterpulse, laser-detector cross-talk, and overlap, poor near-range (less than 6 km) focusing. The accurate correction of both afterpulse and overlap effects are required to study both clouds and aerosols. Furthermore, the outgoing energy of the laser pulses and the statistical uncertainty of the MPL detector must also be correctly determined in order to assess the accuracy of MPL observations. The uncertainties associated with the afterpulse, overlap, pulse energy, detector noise, and all remaining quantities affecting measured MPL signals, are determined in this study. The uncertainties are propagated through the entire MPL correction process to give a net uncertainty on the final corrected MPL signal. The results show that in the near range, the overlap uncertainty dominates. At altitudes above the overlap region, the dominant source of uncertainty is caused by uncertainty in the pulse energy. However, if the laser energy is low, then during mid-day, high solar background levels can significantly reduce the signal-to-noise of the detector. In such a case, the statistical uncertainty of the detector count rate becomes dominant at altitudes above the overlap region.

Welton, Ellsworth J.↗