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At least 379 records · Page 21

National-scale impacts on wind energy production under curtailment scenarios to reduce bat fatalities

Wind energy often plays a major role in meeting renewable energy policy objectives; however, increased deployment can raise concerns regarding the impacts of wind plants on certain wildlife. Particularly, estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities occur annually at wind plants across North America, with potential implications for the viability of several bat species. One approach to reducing bat fatalities is shutting down (or curtailing) turbines when bats are most at risk, such as at night during relatively low wind speed periods throughout summer and early autumn. While curtailment has consistently been shown to reduce bat fatalities, the lost power production reduces revenues for wind plants. This study conducted simulations with a range of curtailment scenarios across the contiguous United States to examine sensitivities of annual energy production (AEP) loss and potential impacts on economic metrics for future wind energy deployment. We found that AEP reduction can vary across the country from less than 1% to more than 10% for different curtailment scenarios. From an estimated 2891 gigawatts (GW) of simulated economically viable wind capacity (measured by a positive net present value), we found the mid curtailment scenario (6.0 m/s wind speed cut-in from July 1 through October 31) reduced the quantity of economic wind capacity by 274 GW or 9.5%. Our results indicate that high levels of curtailment could substantially reduce the future footprint of financially viable wind energy. In this context, future work that illuminates cost-effective strategies to minimize curtailment while reducing bat fatalities would be of value.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

How Cerium and Lanthanum as Coproducts Promote Stable Rare Earth Production and New Alloys

The largest outputs of rare earth mining are the low-value byproducts cerium and lanthanum, which burden rare earth supply chains because they must be separated from more desirable rare earths used in magnet production. Promoting demand for cerium and lanthanum can potentially diversify the economics of rare earth mining and improve supply chain stability for all rare earth elements. A promising avenue for increasing byproduct rare earth element demand is their use in aluminum alloys; an application for cerium and lanthanum offering multiple benefits to manufacturing such as energy reduction and improved throughput. Experimental materials science and economic implications of Al-rare earth element alloys will be discussed. We show that Al–La/Ce alloys have elevated mechanical strength compared to more traditional aluminum alloys, in some formulations can be used without heat treatment, and possess a highly castable eutectic microstructure. This report presents the use of cerium and lanthanum in aluminum alloys as an example of how supply chain focused approaches to technological development can benefit stakeholders at every step in production.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Carbonation reaction of recycled concrete aggregates (RCA): CO 2 mass consumption under various treatment conditions

Concrete is a key building material around the world due to its excellent strength and durability. Recycling demolished concrete for new construction materials may play a significant role in sustainable development. Producing recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) from waste concrete is one approach for such an initiative. However, using RCA may pose challenges, such as reduced density, lower elastic modulus and strength, and increased water absorption. Recently, the carbonation of RCA has emerged as a method to address those concerns. This study explores the carbon sequestration capacity of RCA through carbonation, examining various parametric conditions, including initial CO 2 pressure, relative humidity, temperature, and pre-treatment approach. Both lab-scale and large-scale carbonation tests were conducted. Additionally, a cost analysis and CO 2 footprint assessment were performed. The findings showed that applying higher initial CO 2 pressures (e.g., 40–60 psi) and optimal relative humidity (~55 %) could significantly enhance the carbonation efficiency of RCA. Elevating temperature also led to accelerated CO 2 consumption, being more effective on the lab scale. The economic analysis presented potential cost benefits when substituting natural aggregates with CO 2 -treated RCA. All in all, these results suggest that the carbonation of RCA may provide significant environmental benefits through carbon sequestration, promoting sustainable construction practices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Brassica rapa Domestication: Untangling Wild and Feral Forms and Convergence of Crop Morphotypes

The study of domestication contributes to our knowledge of evolution and crop genetic resources. Human selection has shaped wild Brassica rapa into diverse turnip, leafy, and oilseed crops. Despite its worldwide economic importance and potential as a model for understanding diversification under domestication, insights into the number of domestication events and initial crop(s) domesticated in B. rapa have been limited due to a lack of clarity about the wild or feral status of conspecific noncrop relatives. To address this gap and reconstruct the domestication history of B. rapa, we analyzed 68,468 genotyping-by-sequencing-derived single nucleotide polymorphisms for 416 samples in the largest diversity panel of domesticated and weedy B. rapa to date. To further understand the center of origin, we modeled the potential range of wild B. rapa during the mid-Holocene. Our analyses of genetic diversity across B. rapa morphotypes suggest that noncrop samples from the Caucasus, Siberia, and Italy may be truly wild, whereas those occurring in the Americas and much of Europe are feral. Clustering, tree-based analyses, and parameterized demographic inference further indicate that turnips were likely the first crop type domesticated, from which leafy types in East Asia and Europe were selected from distinct lineages. These findings clarify the domestication history and nature of wild crop genetic resources for B. rapa, which provides the first step toward investigating cases of possible parallel selection, the domestication and feralization syndrome, and novel germplasm for Brassica crop improvement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Optimized allocation method of the VSC-MTDC system for frequency regulation reserves considering the cost

In recent years, the interconnection of asynchronous power grids through the VSC-MTDC system has been proposed and extensively studied in light of the potential benefits of economical bulk power exchanges and frequency regulation reserves sharing. This paper proposed an optimized allocation method for sharing frequency regulation reserves among the interconnected power systems and the corresponding frequency regulation control of the VSC-MTDC system under emergency frequency deviation events. Firstly, the frequency regulation reserve classification is proposed. In the classification, the available frequency response capacity reserves of each interconnection are divided into commercial reserves and regular reserves. While the commercial reserves are procured through long-term contracts, the regular reserves are purchased based on market prices of frequency regulation services. Secondly, based on the proposed frequency regulation reserve classification, a novel frequency regulation control is then introduced for the VSC-MTDC system. This control method could minimize the costs of the disturbed power grid for the needed frequency response supports from the other power grids. Simulation verifications are performed on a modified IEEE 39 bus system and a highly reduced power system model representing the North American grids. The simulation verification indicates that the developed frequency regulation control significantly reduced ancillary service costs of the disturbed power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin

This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Validation of Robustness in TCR Design Strategies

Advanced Manufacturing (AM) has been identified as one of key pathways in accelerating deployment of next generation of nuclear power plants. The nuclear industry continues to predominately rely on fabrication techniques and materials that their codes and standards were approved decades ago. This legacy approach in the highly regulated nuclear sector has brought uncertainty to commercial viability of nuclear energy in the U.S. The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR), sought to utilize AM methods for fabrication of a High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR). The program sought to leverage AM to construct a non-conventional geometry made up of TRISO fuel and hydride moderator in SiC matrix. This project objective was to provide independent analysis of the core configuration with separate set of tools and approaches than utilized by the TCR team in a 2-year time frame. This NEUP project also tackled a question: Can AM be a cost-effective tool in changing the commercial paradigm of nuclear. We investigated this question in-context of a micro HTGR. While respecting the inherit uncertainty in our input parameters, overall we saw that AM has potential in improving economic competitiveness of nuclear energy when employed on multiple fronts (i.e. few percentage cost improvement per component). Given realizing AM requires mass orders and large R&D investment for commercial utilization, Department of Energy should focus its support on few key enabling technologies and support their codes and standards development and qualification cost (including irradiation as applicable) rather than taking a diluted approach.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2022

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: -Discount rate estimation methods and rationale -Data sources used and data limitations -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis A version of this analysis was most recently released in 2022. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Effect of Support on Iron-Based Catalyst Toward CO2-Free H2 Production From Methane Pyrolysis

The global demand for low-emission hydrogen production is increasing rapidly due to the potential for hydrogen to substitute conventional fossil fuels in energy-related applications. Among practical technologies such as steam reforming of methane (SMR), water electrolysis, and methane pyrolysis, methane pyrolysis has the most potential to produce economical- and near-zero-emission hydrogen. The reaction during methane pyrolysis produces a solid carbon by-product that can be monetized to offset production costs. However, this route is not without research challenges, and the selective formation of high-value carbon remains a critical issue. Supported nickel, iron, and cobalt, have been widely investigated for methane pyrolysis. Although iron-based catalysts are less active than Ni, iron catalysts offer less resistance to coke formation, are inexpensive, and have a longer lifetime. One area not sufficiently explored is the effect of support materials other than Al2O3 for the iron-based catalysts. Therefore, we investigated a detailed variation of support materials to study their influence on the catalytic performance. Moreover, this study offers a fair and direct comparison among all catalytic materials which were synthesized and studied under identical conditions. This direct comparison of the obtained results is important because results reported in different publications are often not comparable due to very different reaction conditions.

Gull, Nathan↗

Effect of Support on Iron-Based Catalyst Toward CO2-Free H2 Production From Methane Pyrolysis

The global demand for low-emission hydrogen production is increasing rapidly due to the potential for hydrogen to substitute conventional fossil fuels in energy related applications. Among all the current practical technologies – Steam Reforming of Methane (SMR), Water Electrolysis, and Methane Pyrolysis – methane pyrolysis has the potential to produce economical- and near-zero-emission hydrogen because the reaction produces a solid carbon by-product that can be monetized to offset production costs. However, this route is not without research challenges, and the selective formation of high-value carbon remains a critical issue. Supported nickel, iron, and cobalt, have been widely investigated for methane pyrolysis. Although iron-based catalysts are less active than Ni, iron catalysts offer less resistance to coke formation, are inexpensive, and have a longer lifetime. One area not sufficiently explored is the effect of support materials other than Al2O3 for the iron-based catalysts. Therefore, in this study we investigated a detailed variation of support material to study their influence on the catalytic performance. Moreover, this study offers a fair comparison because all catalytic materials were synthesized and studied under identical conditions, allowing a direct comparison of the obtained results; this is important because results reported in different publications in literature are often not comparable, due to very different reaction conditions.

Aireddy, Divakar Reddy↗

Roadmap for IES Modeling and Simulation Activities: Update 2023

Since inception of the DOE-NE Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, several program and modeling visions and roadmaps have been published. In 2020, a last comprehensive roadmap for the DOE-NE Integrated Energy Systems program was published. In 2017, a separate modeling and simulation capability development plan was published that was extensively updated in 2022. The current report incrementally updates the 2022 modeling and simulation capability roadmap. This is not a new report, but individual sections have been updated to reflect recent accomplishments and new directions of the program. The role of modeling and simulation within IES is to support the demonstration of new coupled integrated technologies along every step of the technology maturation from the strategic analysis of preferred system architecture to preliminary design, to laboratory testing, up to full commercial testing and integration. To achieve this role, modeling and simulation must be able to assess the technical performance and the economic viability of potential IES. Also, modeling and simulation must provide support for experimental evaluations (i.e., support component design and real-time operations of experimental demonstration systems). Finally, modeling and simulation can help scale-up experimental systems to the final commercial systems. This report details the current state of the modeling and simulation efforts within IES for the above-mentioned areas, provides a gap analysis, and proposes next steps for a time horizon over the next years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Influence of Mo- and Ga-Supported HZSM-5 Co-Catalyst Configuration in Microwave-Assisted Methane and Ethane Dehydroaromatization

Microwave (MW)-assisted dehydroaromatization (DHA) using an Mo-supported HZSM-5 catalyst (Mo/HZSM-5) enhances the value of natural gas resources by converting stranded or underutilized natural gas into value-added chemicals in modular microwave reactor systems. This approach offers the potential to generate economic value. However, natural gas mixtures often contain multiple components, including ethane (C2H6) and propane (C3H8), which complicate the reaction pathways. Ga-supported HZSM-5 (Ga/HZSM-5) catalysts are generally inactive toward CH4 but exhibit higher activity toward C2H6 and C3H8. Therefore, investigating the combination of Mo/HZSM-5 and Ga/HZSM-5 in various catalyst bed configurations is essential. This study explores different co-catalyst bed configurations and CH4/C2H6 feed compositions to determine the most effective way for enhanced natural gas conversion and benzene production.

cocatalyst bed configuration↗

Biomolecular Films for Direct Air Capture of CO 2

Efficient utilization of CO 2 is amongst the most critical cost drivers in algal biomass production in open pond systems. CO 2 delivery costs represent approximately 20% of the final biomass selling price in algal mass cultivation systems. Technologies that enable direct air capture (DAC) of atmospheric CO 2 to decouple algae cultivation from CO 2 point sources thus present an opportunity to improve the economics and resource potential of algal biomass. Current DAC technologies typically employ amine- or caustic-based absorption, demanding significant water and/or energy inputs and incurring substantial capital expenditures. Conversely, bio-based approaches to DAC offer a means to bypass conventional technoeconomic and sustainability hurdles. We integrate recent advances in computational metabolic modeling, algal genetic engineering, algal cultivation, and algal biomass upgrading to enable directed localization and self-assembly of carbonic anhydrase molecular films to gas-liquid interfaces for enhanced CO 2 capture and conversion.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Building Energy Analysis of Manufactured and Multifamily Housing Types in Juneau, Alaska

This report details the results of building energy modeling analysis evaluating the potential energy savings, economic outcomes, and grid-level electricity reduction associated with cold climate air source heat pump (ccASHP) adoption across multifamily and manufactured housing (MMFH) building typologies in the City and Borough of Juneau (CBJ). Three building archetypes were evaluated: multifamily 4-plex apartments, multifamily 8-plex apartments, and manufactured housing units. Building energy models were developed using OpenStudio-HPXML and calibrated to actual utility consumption data and local meteorological data from the Juneau International Airport weather station using an automated calibration tool following the BPI-2400-S-2015 v.2 standard for model calibration. Occupant behaviors present the greatest variability in successful calibrations. Calibrated models were benchmarked against a baseline electric resistance heating condition, with the selected ccASHP modeled as the retrofit condition and typical meteorological year weather data for all results generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Study of the application of advanced technologies to long range transport aircraft. Volume 2: Advanced technology program recommendations

The benefits of the application of advanced technology to future transport aircraft were investigated. The noise reduction goals established by the CARD (Civil Aviation Research and Development) study for the 1981-1985 time period can be satisfied. Reduced terminal area and airway congestion can result from use of advanced on-board systems and operating procedures. The use of advanced structural design concepts can result in greatly reduced gross weight and improved operating economics. The full potential of these benefits can be realized in a 1985 airplane by implementing a research and development program that is funded to an average level of approximately $55 million per year over a ten year period.

Source record↗