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DOE OSTI2022

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Privacy-preserving federated learning: Application to behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic generation forecasting

Here, the growing usage of decentralized renewable energy sources has made accurate estimation of their aggregated generation crucial for maintaining grid flexibility and reliability. However, the majority of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems are behind-the-meter (BTM) and invisible to utilities, leading to three challenges in obtaining an accurate forecast of their aggregated output. Firstly, traditional centralized prediction algorithms used in previous studies may not be appropriate due to privacy concerns. There is therefore a need for decentralized forecasting methods, such as federated learning (FL), to protect privacy. Secondly, there has been no comparison between localized, centralized, and decentralized forecasting methods for BTM PV production, and the trade-off between prediction accuracy and privacy has not been explored. Lastly, the computational time of data-driven prediction algorithms has not been examined. This article presents a FL power forecasting method for PVs, which uses federated learning as a decentralized collaborative modeling approach to train a single model on data from multiple BTM sites. The machine learning network used to design this FL-based BTM PV forecasting model is a multi-layered perceptron, which ensures privacy and security of the data. Comparing the suggested FL forecasting model to non-private centralized and entirely private localized models revealed that it has a high level of accuracy, with an RMSE that is 18.17% lower than localized models and 9.9% higher than centralized models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Affine Transformations to Enable Machine Learning for Semi-Quantitative EDS Analysis

Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) is an essential technique for determining elemental concentrations and distributions within microstructures, critical for materials discovery, optimization, and qualification. However, most published EDS data is qualitative because current quantitative EDS analysis methods require extensive calibration and post-processing, limiting their practicality and widespread adoption. This work seeks to establish a framework for accelerated EDS characterization and spectrum analysis that can leverage ML to analyze correlations between various elemental compositions and resulting EDS spectra. The complex physics and data result in a high-dimensional problem that grows exponentially with the number of elements in the system and the complexity of the spectrum analysis. ML provides a way to compute and optimize the results of this highly dimensional problem in a flexible way to tailor it to the user’s specific needs and material system. However, the framework emphasizes transparency through a strictly mathematical affine transformation, so the analysis remains understandable and reviewable to facilitate adoption by the scientific community. While currently implemented methods are simplistic and unvalidated, further development and demonstration of this framework could enable high-throughput, accurate, and accessible EDS characterization.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enabling machine learning-ready HPC ensembles with Merlin

With the growing complexity of computational and experimental facilities, many scientific researchers are turning to machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze large scale ensemble data. With complexities such as multi-component workflows, heterogeneous machine architectures, parallel file systems, and batch scheduling, care must be taken to facilitate this analysis in a high performance computing (HPC) environment. Here, we present Merlin, a workflow framework to enable large ML-friendly ensembles of scientific HPC simulations. By augmenting traditional HPC with distributed compute technologies, Merlin aims to lower the barrier for scientific subject matter experts to incorporate ML into their analysis. As a producer–consumer workflow model, Merlin enables multi-machine, cross-batch job, dynamically allocated yet persistent workflows capable of utilizing surge-compute resources. Key features of Merlin are a flexible HPC-centric interface, low per-task overhead, multi-tiered fault recovery, and a hierarchical sampling algorithm that allows for $\mathscr{O}$(N) task execution and $\mathscr{O}$(N ln N) task queuing to ensembles of millions of tasks. In addition to Merlin’s design, we test the algorithm’s performance in an HPC center and demonstrate the ability to enqueue 40 million simulations in 100 s, with a 30 millisecond per-task overhead that is independent of ensemble size. Finally, we describe some example applications that Merlin has enabled on leadership-class HPC resources, such as the ML-augmented optimization of nuclear fusion experiments and the calibration of infectious disease models to study the progression of and possible mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Solving Stochastic Inverse Problems for Property–Structure Linkages Using Data-Consistent Inversion and Machine Learning

Determining process–structure–property linkages is one of the key objectives in material science, and uncertainty quantification plays a critical role in understanding both process–structure and structure–property linkages. In this work, we seek to learn a distribution of microstructure parameters that are consistent in the sense that the forward propagation of this distribution through a crystal plasticity finite element model matches a target distribution on materials properties. This stochastic inversion formulation infers a distribution of acceptable/consistent microstructures, as opposed to a deterministic solution, which expands the range of feasible designs in a probabilistic manner. Furthermore, to solve this stochastic inverse problem, we employ a recently developed uncertainty quantification framework based on push-forward probability measures, which combines techniques from measure theory and Bayes’ rule to define a unique and numerically stable solution. This approach requires making an initial prediction using an initial guess for the distribution on model inputs and solving a stochastic forward problem. To reduce the computational burden in solving both stochastic forward and stochastic inverse problems, we combine this approach with a machine learning Bayesian regression model based on Gaussian processes and demonstrate the proposed methodology on two representative case studies in structure–property linkages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ensemble learning-iterative training machine learning for uncertainty quantification and automated experiment in atom-resolved microscopy

Deep learning has emerged as a technique of choice for rapid feature extraction across imaging disciplines, allowing rapid conversion of the data streams to spatial or spatiotemporal arrays of features of interest. However, applications of deep learning in experimental domains are often limited by the out-of-distribution drift between the experiments, where the network trained for one set of imaging conditions becomes sub-optimal for different ones. This limitation is particularly stringent in the quest to have an automated experiment setting, where retraining or transfer learning becomes impractical due to the need for human intervention and associated latencies. Here we explore the reproducibility of deep learning for feature extraction in atom-resolved electron microscopy and introduce workflows based on ensemble learning and iterative training to greatly improve feature detection. This approach allows incorporating uncertainty quantification into the deep learning analysis and also enables rapid automated experimental workflows where retraining of the network to compensate for out-of-distribution drift due to subtle change in imaging conditions is substituted for human operator or programmatic selection of networks from the ensemble. This methodology can be further applied to machine learning workflows in other imaging areas including optical and chemical imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Microphysical Properties of Ice Crystals From Cloud Particle Imagery

The microphysical properties of ice crystals are important because they significantly alter the radiative properties and spatiotemporal distributions of clouds, which in turn strongly affect Earth's climate. However, it is challenging to measure key properties of ice crystals, such as mass or morphological features. Here, we present a proof-of-concept framework for predicting three-dimensional (3D) microphysical properties of ice crystals from in situ two-dimensional (2D) imagery. First, we computationally generated synthetic ice crystals using 3D modeling software along with geometric parameters estimated from the 2021 Ice Cryo-Encapsulation Balloon (ICEBall) field campaign. Then, we used synthetic crystals to train machine learning (ML) models to predict effective density ($ρ_e$), effective surface area ($A_e$), and number of bullets ($N_b$) from synthetic rosette imagery. On unseen synthetic images, our ML models accurately predicted ice crystal properties. ResNet-18 performed best, achieving $R^2$ values of 0.99 and 0.98 for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$, respectively, and MAE of 0.10 for mathematical equation in single view tasks. Stereo view ResNet-18 further reduced RMSE by 40% for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$ and reduced MAE by 0.08 for $N_b$. This work provides a novel ML-driven framework for estimating ice microphysical properties from in situ imagery, which will allow for downstream constraints on microphysical parameterizations, such as the mass-size relationship.

Ko, J. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United State↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning pipeline to predict defect behavior in metallic alloy systems

The interaction between defect and solute atoms is critical to the thermodynamic and kinetic behavior of metallic alloys under exposure to high-energy radiation, causing irradiation damage in materials. Radiation can generate non-equilibrium concentrations of point defects such as vacancies and interstitials. The excess point defects not only accelerate diffusional processes such as precipitation that cause radiation embrittlement, but also change the pathway of phase transformations, including nucleation processes. Understanding these defect behaviors is complicated by the challenge and complexity of addressing each possible local and discrete distribution of environments and chemical interactions around targeted defects-solute or solute-solute complexes. To resolve the challenge, machine learning regression techniques have emerged as powerful tools that can train and construct an energy model to accurately describe the chemical interactions of solutes and defects. In Fiscal Year 2022, the work focused on the workflow development and demonstration using machine learning regression, density functional theory, cluster expansion, and Monte Carlo simulation to predict the effects of ternary solute elements (e.g., aluminum and molybdenum) and point defects on the Cr-rich $\alpha^{\prime}$ precipitation in multicomponent FeCr model alloys. The computational outcomes include the prediction of the ternary phase diagram, vacancy formation energy for different compositions, and the effect of vacancies on the nucleation of Cr-rich clusters. The simulations predict a pronounced change of Cr solubility in bcc Fe by the addition of Al and the rejection of Al atoms from $\alpha^{\prime}$ precipitates. Additionally, the simulations show the formation of Cr-vacancy clusters as the initial nuclei for stable nucleation and growth of $\alpha^{\prime}$ particles. The results demonstrate important outcomes and applications of using machine learning pipeline to study model or commercial alloys with multicomponent solute species and point defects.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗

DOE OSTI2022

A new calibration method for charm jet identification validated with proton-proton collision events at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV

Many measurements at the LHC require efficient identification of heavy-flavour jets, i.e. jets originating from bottom (b) or charm (c) quarks. An overview of the algorithms used to identify c jets is described and a novel method to calibrate them is presented. This new method adjusts the entire distributions of the outputs obtained when the algorithms are applied to jets of different flavours. It is based on an iterative approach exploiting three distinct control regions that are enriched with either b jets, c jets, or light-flavour and gluon jets. Results are presented in the form of correction factors evaluated using proton-proton collision data with an integrated luminosity of 41.5 fb$^{-1}$ at √s = 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment in 2017. The closure of the method is tested by applying the measured correction factors on simulated data sets and checking the agreement between the adjusted simulation and collision data. Furthermore, a validation is performed by testing the method on pseudodata, which emulate various mismodelling conditions. The calibrated results enable the use of the full distributions of heavy-flavour identification algorithm outputs, e.g. as inputs to machine-learning models. Thus, they are expected to increase the sensitivity of future physics analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using kernel-based statistical distance to study the dynamics of charged particle beams in particle-based simulation codes

Measures of discrepancy between probability distributions (statistical distance) are widely used in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning. We describe how certain measures of statistical distance can be implemented as numerical diagnostics for simulations involving charged-particle beams. Related measures of statistical dependence are also described. The resulting diagnostics provide sensitive measures of dynamical processes important for beams in nonlinear or high-intensity systems, which are otherwise difficult to characterize. Here, the focus is on kernel-based methods such as maximum mean discrepancy, which have a well-developed mathematical foundation and reasonable computational complexity. Several benchmark problems and examples involving intense beams are discussed. While the focus is on charged-particle beams, these methods may also be applied to other many-body systems such as plasmas or gravitational systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coordinated Ramping Product and Regulation Reserve Procurements in CAISO and MISO using Multi-Scale Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts (Pro2R)

How can probabilistic solar forecasts lower costs and improve reliability for independent system operator (ISO) markets? We tackle this question in three steps. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty in those forecasts to error distributions for net load ramps for the California ISO (CAISO) using statistical and machine learning methods. Projected net load errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Finally, a multi-period look-ahead production cost model quantifies how conditional ramp requirements can a) decrease operating costs by lowering requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods, and b) reduce generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. In addition to the products just described (quantification of solar uncertainty, its translation into requirements for ramp capability product, and quantification of the benefits of more accurate ramp requirements), this project also developed a visualization system that alerts system operators of ramp and uncertainty conditions within the network based on solar forecasts. The system is called Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RaVIS). These four products represent significant advances in the state-of-the-art of probabilistic solar forecasting, development of weather-informed reserve requirements, production costing methods for estimating the benefits of more accurate reserve requirements, and visualization of system status, respectively. Yet the products are also practical and can be immediately implemented, potentially enabling system operators to save millions of dollars in ramp product procurement costs per year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning of Plasma Science for Next Generation Microelectronics (Project Final Report)

Low temperature plasmas (LTPs) are an enabling technology behind reducing device dimensions and the continuation of Moore’s Law. It is estimated that 40-45% of all process steps necessary to manufacture semiconductor devices involve LTPs. However, challenges in plasma process design and continuous incorporation of novel materials for new device architectures are pushing the limits of what is possible with current plasma technology. For example, creating higher aspect ratio structures and etching features at the atomic scale both require finer control of the ion energy/velocity at wafer surfaces. To support these types of future innovations in the plasma processing systems that Sandia and the DOE rely upon, we have developed novel diagnostics, simulations, and machine learning capabilities to discover, characterize, and predict plasma phenomena affecting the ion energy/velocity distribution function (IEDF). These efforts also supported research program development and external collaboration with industry and academia through Sandia’s Plasma Research Facility (PRF). This report will focus on the following topics and accomplishments of this three year LDRD project, briefly summarized.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geomancy: Automated Performance Enhancement through Data Layout Optimization

Large distributed storage systems such as high- performance computing (HPC) systems used by national or international laboratories require sufficient performance and scale for demanding scientific workloads and must handle shifting workloads with ease. Ideally, data is placed in locations to optimize performance, but the size and complexity of large storage systems inhibit rapid effective restructuring of data layouts to maintain performance as workloads shift. To address these issues, we have developed Geomancy, a tool that models the placement of data within a distributed storage system and reacts to drops in performance. Using a combination of machine learning techniques suitable for temporal modeling, Geomancy determines when and where a bottleneck may happen due to changing workloads and suggests changes in the layout that mitigate or prevent them. Our approach to optimizing throughput offers benefits for storage systems such as avoiding potential bottlenecks and increasing overall I/O throughput from 11% to 30%.

Bel, Oceane M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning-based Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection in Wide Area Voltage Control Systems

Wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) are widely deployed in power grid to improve the voltage stability in transmission system using Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices. The WAVCS relies on wide-area measurement and control signals for closed-loop control of FACTS devices to improve the transient voltage stability in power grid in real-time. Since the WAVCS utilizes a cyber-layer communication during its normal operation, they are susceptible to cyber attacks from adversaries which can lead to a voltage collapse if the attacks go undetected and unmitigated. This paper proposes a supervised machine learning (ML)-based anomaly detection algorithm for detecting various stealthy cyber attacks in the context of WAVCS cybersecurity. In particular, a fuzzy logic-based wide-area controller, as proposed by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), is implemented on the Kundur’s four machine two-area system that is integrated with a static var compensator (SVC) to improve voltage profile on sensitive buses. Later, different types of data integrity attacks, including pulse and ramp attacks, are considered on the wide-area measurement and control signals to analyze the performance of the proposed anomaly detector. Our experimental evaluation shows a promising performance with a high true-positive rate (more than 99%) and low false-negative rate (less than 1%) while exhibiting a small prediction time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗