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DOE OSTI2026

Statistical inference of anomalous thermal transport with uncertainty quantification for interpretive 2D SOL models

The critical task of inferring anomalous cross-field transport coefficients is addressed in simulations of boundary plasmas with fluid models. A workflow for parameter inference in the UEDGE fluid code is developed using Bayesian optimization with parallelized sampling and integrated uncertainty quantification. In this workflow, transport coefficients are inferred by maximizing their posterior probability distribution, which is generally multidimensional and non-Gaussian. Uncertainty quantification is integrated throughout the optimization within the Bayesian framework that combines diagnostic uncertainties and model limitations. As a concrete example, we infer the anomalous electron thermal diffusivity $\chi_\perp$ from an interpretive 2D model describing electron heat transport in the conduction-limited region with radiative power loss. The workflow is first benchmarked against synthetic data and then tested on H-, L-, and I-mode discharges to match their midplane temperature and divertor heat flux profiles. We demonstrate that the workflow efficiently infers diffusivity and its associated uncertainty, generating 2D profiles that match 1D measurements. Future efforts will focus on incorporating more complicated fluid models and analyzing transport coefficients inferred from a large database of experimental results.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recommendations for Distributed Energy Resource Access Control

Cybersecurity for internet - connected Distributed Energy Resources (DER) is essential for the safe and reliable operation of the US power system. Many facets of DER cybersecurity are currently being investigated within different standards development organizations, research communities, and industry committees to address this critical need. This report covers DER access control guidance compiled by the Access Controls Subgroup of the SunSpec/Sandia DER Cybersecurity Workgroup. The goal of the group was to create a consensus - based technical framework to minimize the risk of unauthorized access to DER systems. The subgroup set out to define a strict control environment where users are authorized to access DER monitoring and control features through three steps: (a) user is identified using a proof-of-identity, (b) the user is authenticated by a managed database, (c) and the user is authorized for a specific level of access. DER access control also provides accountability and nonrepudiation within the power system control environment that can be used for forensic analysis and attribution in the event of a cyber-attack. This paper covers foundational requirements for a DER access control environment as well as offering a collection of possible policy, model, and mechanism implementation approaches for IEEE 1547-mandated communication protocols.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

GridDS: Data Science Toolkit for Energy Grid Data

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the demand for energy is expected to increase 50% by the year 20501. While energy standards, such as the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Standard 1547, (Basso 2015) and monitoring with wide area management systems (WAMS) (Liu 2017, Zhou 2016) have enabled large scale data collection and storage, the application of this data in mitigating costs associated with increased consumer demand is an ongoing focus for energy research. This ubiquitous data collection presents a promising opportunity for machine learning and data science to improve efficiency of distributed energy resources (DERs). The GridDS software toolkit is designed to leverage advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), outage management systems data (OMS), Supervisory control Data Acquisition (SCADA), and geographic information systems (GIS) to forecast future energy demands and detect incipient grid failures. GridDS is a python software library designed to be modular and generalizable to data recorded by DERs. In adapting to disparate datasets recorded by various WAMS, GridDS provides a range of unique functionality not presently implemented in current WAMS which have highly specific software infrastructure by design. GridDS functionality ranges from data specification and preparation, to training and validation for state of the art machine learning, to interactive data visualization. For data intake, GridDS combines: Pandera: a library for creating data specifications. TimeScaleDB: a postgresSQL database infrastructure for efficient storage of timeseries data. Dataset class: A custom dataset class / interface that ensures modularity between a range of synthetic and live recorded datasets. Is

Ladd, Alexander↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intervening alcohol marketing to reduce harmful alcohol use and lessons learned from the theory of changes: Case studies in Thailand

Objectives Globally, the burden of disease caused by alcohol use has been steadily increasing, including in Thailand. In this study, we aim to test the effectiveness of Anderson et al.‘s suggested three approaches to change the collective social norms, which comprise of: (1) providing information and an understanding about alcohol use behaviour, its causes and distribution; (2) focusing strategies on groups rather than individuals; and (3) strengthening supportive laws, regulations and approaches. Study design We employed a mixed-methods approach. Evidence was gathered from literature review and in-depth interviews with key individuals who are responsible for community-based interventions to alcohol marketing strategies in Thailand. Methods We chose to focus on two case studies in Nan and Surin provinces, where hospital-based longitudinal data (8 years) were available. Changes in casualties related to the harmful use of alcohol, resulting from interactions between community-based interventions and alcohol marketing during the time of annual festivals were investigated. We employed the theory of change (ToC) defined by Vogel to guide the data collection and analysis. We reviewed literature from online databases and grey literature to generate causal-loop diagrams. Results We created a causal-loop diagram to describe the complexity of harmful alcohol use, its related factors, context, interventions and outcomes. Over the decade between 2006 and 2015, community-based strategies led to a substantial reduction of casualties (initially a 50% reduction, rising to an 80–90% reduction by the end of the study period) during the time of the festivals. Conclusions The reduction in injuries and fatalities could be a result of the concerted actions, including legal sanctions of alcohol beverage sales and advertisement, and public education to raise awareness and impart knowledge of the harmful use of alcohol. The actions were organised by a coalition of civil society, health professionals, public authorities and community leaders using hospital-based data on the adverse effects of harmful alcohol use to mobilise political support at the provincial level. The availability of long-term financial support as a catalytic source of funds and the presence of a comprehensive alcohol control act enabled framing and mobilisation of local resources and political support.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An investigation of the star-forming main sequence considering the nebular continuum emission at low- z

Galaxy evolution has been studied by interpreting the spectral energy distribution of galaxies using spectral synthesis codes. This method has been crucial in discovering different pillars of modern galaxy evolution theories. However, this analysis was mostly carried out using spectral synthesis codes that are purely stellar, that is, they assume that the nebular contribution to the total continuum is negligible. The code FADO is the first publicly available population spectral synthesis tool that treats the contribution from ionised gas to the observed emission self-consistently. This is expected to have a particularly strong effect in star-forming (SF) galaxies. We study the impact of the nebular contribution on the determination of the star formation rate (SFR), stellar mass, and consequent effect on the star-forming main sequence (SFMS) at low redshift. We applied FADO to the spectral database of the SDSS to derive the physical properties of galaxies. As a comparison, we used the data in the MPA-JHU catalogue, which contains the properties of SDSS galaxies derived without the nebular contribution. We selected a sample of SF galaxies with Hα and Hβ flux measurements, and we corrected the fluxes for the nebular extinction through the Balmer decrement. We then calculated the Hα luminosity to estimate the SFR. Then, by combining the stellar mass and SFR estimates from FADO and MPA-JHU, the SFMS was obtained. The Hα flux estimates are similar between FADO and MPA-JHU. Because the Hα flux was used as tracer of the SFR, FADO and MPA-JHU agree in their SFR. The stellar mass estimates are slightly higher for FADO than for MPA-JHU on average. However, considering the uncertainties, the differences are negligible. With similar SFR and stellar mass estimates, the derived SFMS is also similar between FADO and MPA-JHU. Our results show that for SDSS normal SF galaxies, the additional modelling of the nebular contribution does not affect the retrieved fluxes and consequentially also does not influence SFR estimators based on the extinction-corrected Hα luminosity. For the stellar masses, the results point to the same conclusion. These results are a consequence of the fact that the vast majority of normal SF galaxies in the SDSS have a low nebular contribution. However, the obtained agreement might only hold for local SF galaxies, but higher-redshift galaxies might show different physical properties when FADO is used. This would then be an effect of the expected increased nebular contribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mid Infra-Red Laser Sensor for Continuous Sulfur Trioxide Monitoring to Improve Coal-Fired Power Plant Performance during Flexible Operations

During the course of this project, we performed exhaustive research and development of SO3/H2SO4 sensing technology for coal-fired power plant applications (Figure 1). The development culminated in a successful field campaign of a prototype continuous real-time H2SO4 monitor at a coal-fired power plant (TRL 6) accomplishing the primary goal of the project. The developed sensors utilize tunable laser absorption spectroscopy (TLAS) operating in the mid-infrared (Mid-IR) wavelength region, which is the so-called “molecular fingerprint” region. Systems operating in the Mid-IR have orders of magnitude more sensitivity than systems operating at shorter wavelengths, such as near-infrared (NIR). However, NIR systems are more widespread due to more mature supporting technology (e.g., fiber optics, optical components, etc.). In this project, we not only produced a specific Mid-IR sensor, we also advanced Mid-IR sensor technology in general through the development and demonstration of such supporting technology. In this project, we also developed proprietary broad tuning lasers enabling the ability to effectively measure SO3, H2SO4, H2O, and SO2. Different molecular species have unique spectral signatures that can be probed with lasers operating at different wavelengths. Standard TLAS uses relatively narrow wavelength tuning distributed feedback (DFB) lasers, which can typically only target a single species with narrow features, and are not appropriate for species with broad features, such as SO3 or H2SO4. In contrast, by developing unique, broad-tuning laser technology, we were able to measure these species, as well as SO2 and H2O simultaneously. Furthermore, to enable real-time analysis at a power plant, we modified a commercially available heated gas cell to operate in the Mid-IR wavelength range and fiber coupled the lasers to enable remote delivery of the beams. To generate reference data (library spectra), our collaborators at the University of California Irvine (UCI) developed a catalytic SO3 generation facility. It is worth mentioning that representative H2SO4 and SO3 Mid-IR spectra are not a part of any publicly available database and the data generated under this project is a valuable resource in and of itself. In addition, based on the UCI study we determined that detection of SO3 is complicated by the very strong SO2 absorption. For that reason, we concentrated on H2SO4 detection. Since SO3 and H2SO4 exist in a flue gas in a state of equilibrium, which depends on temperature and humidity, by measuring water concentration and controlling the temperature of the gas cell, we developed an approach to determine SO3 concentration from the H2SO4 measurement. During the development phase of the project, we performed three testing campaigns at our collaborator’s FERCo flue gas facility with conditions representative of the coal-fired power plant (~ 40ppm SO3, 1700ppm to 2800 ppm SO2, 10% water) with the exception of particulate matter. After three test campaigns at FERCo we performed field testing at Harrison Power Station. The final system was mounted on a duct and measured H2SO4, SO2 and water. The tests were highly successful with a demonstrated real-time H2SO4 precision of 1 ppm with a 1 second update. Our collaborators at EPRI conducted an industry survey and determined that there is a very high interest for the SO3/H2SO4 monitoring in the power generation industry as well as in heavy industries in general. Furthermore, work performed by OptoKnowledge beyond the scope of this project under a synergistic DOE SBIR determined another approach to SO3 detection. We applied for Phase II on this SBIR for development a of versatile SO3/H2SO4 sensor but were not selected. We are currently looking for another opportunity to leverage all the technological advancements produced by this project including but not limited to the flue gas facility at UCI, the hardware and software developed, and relationships with FERCo, EPRI CEMTEK, and Harrison Station.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire‐induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America

Abstract Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO 2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape‐level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat‐derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post‐fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space‐for‐time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid‐succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8–40% during June and July for 2‐ to 59‐year stands relative to pre‐fire controls. From the analysis of post‐fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long‐term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early‐ and mid‐summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long‐term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO 2 exchange without a close coupling to long‐term increases in carbon storage.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward Better Understanding of Microphysical Processes and Resulting Precipitation Physics: A Merger Of Observations and Cloud Models (Final Report)

A large database of global disdrometer observations and a diverse set of simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) were compared using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to better understand warm and ice-based precipitation processes. The analysis demonstrated that six distinct precipitation groups (PGs) with common characteristics were revealed in both the observations and model simulations. These PGs were defined by similar co-variability of rain parameters. However, the model showed large concentrations of drops with a given size compared to the observations. Detailed investigations determined the parameterization of drop breakup was forcing the drops to an equilibrium size with a stronger constraint than was indicated by the observations. A series of sensitivity studies permutating the rain shape parameter in the RAMS 2-moment bulk scheme demonstrated how the assumed shape of the rain distribution influences the microphysics as well as precipitation characteristics. Results were compared to the same simulations performed with a bin microphysics scheme where the rain shape parameter is freely evolving. In the bin scheme, a wide range of shape parameters were found, with horizontal and vertical variability, in addition to being a function of storm lifetime. The results of this study highlight the limitations of a fixed assumed rain distribution in 2-moment microphysics schemes. Model simulations were used to probe the microphysical origins of the six PGs. Rain budgets from a supercell case showed that several of the groups hypothesized to be associated with strong ice microphysical processes had significant contributions from melting hail, but the complexity of ice and warm-rain processes in the supercell precluded definitive determination of microphysical origins for many of the PGs. A case study from the Mid-latitude Continental Convection and Clouds Experiment (MC3E) compared the model PGs to disdrometer observations, and demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the PGs which is not possible from disdrometer point measurements alone. The analyses performed during this project demonstrated how statistical analysis can provide a robust method for comparing model simulations and observations, which ultimately resulted identification of limitations in some current microphysics parameterizations as well as insights into precipitation variability which ultimately benefits both observations and modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalable and Energy-Efficient Methods for Interactive Exploration of Scientific Data

The main scientific contributions of this project are the following novel concepts for multidimensional arrays: shape-based similarity join (SIGMOD 2016), incremental view maintenance (SIGMOD 2017), user-defined stencil functions (HPDC 2017), and distributed caching for in-situ processing (SSDBM 2018). Building on our collaboration with the astrophysics group at LBNL, we applied these techniques to the data generated in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) astronomical survey. They played a pivotal role in the first-ever observation of a neutron star merger, which produces gravitational waves and turns out to be the origin of heavy elements, including gold. This has lead to a Science magazine article that has received extensive media coverage on ACM TechNews, Slashdot, FiveThirtyEight, and Quanta Magazine, among others. Additionally, two other articles detailing related aspects of the same discovery have been published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters journal. These publications have more than 3,000 citations according to Google Scholar (as of February 2022). This cross-disciplinary collaboration provided very good opportunities to apply database techniques to real-life scientific problems. The fact that they facilitated major discoveries in astrophysics proves the importance of our research. In addition to the work on multidimensional array databases, this project has also developed stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimization algorithms for training large scale machine learning models, methods for querying in-situ data, and a database query optimizer based on sketch synopses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The MolSSI QCArchive project: An open-source platform to compute, organize, and share quantum chemistry data

The Molecular Sciences Software Institute's (MolSSI) Quantum Chemistry Archive (QCArchive) project is an umbrella name that covers both a central server hosted by MolSSI for community data and the Python-based software infrastructure that powers automated computation and storage of quantum chemistry (QC) results. The MolSSI-hosted central server provides the computational molecular sciences community a location to freely access tens of millions of QC computations for machine learning, methodology assessment, force-field fitting, and more through a Python interface. Facile, user-friendly mining of the centrally archived quantum chemical data also can be achieved through web applications found at the website. The software infrastructure can be used as a standalone platform to compute, structure, and distribute hundreds of millions of QC computations for individuals or groups of researchers at any scale. The QCArchiveInfrastructure is open-source (BSD-3C), code repositories can be found at github, and releases can be downloaded via PyPI and Conda. This article is categorized under: Electronic Structure Theory > Ab Initio Electronic Structure Methods Software > Quantum Chemistry Data Science > Computer Algorithms and Programming

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Colloidal Behavior of Plutonium Oxide in Concentrated Electrolyte Solutions

The Hanford Site in Washington State manages legacy high-level radioactive waste streams that display major chemistry and engineering challenges, including the high salt levels and pH values that correspond to conditions under which many classical concepts describing chemical reactivity cannot be applied. One particular challenge that needs to be tackled at Hanford is that Pu concentrations, [Pu], in the soluble phases of the tank wastes are higher than expected based on the solubility of crystalline PuO2, which is widely accepted to be caused by the formation of PuO2 colloid, consisting of nano- to submicron-sized particles (PuO2 NPs). Fundamental research underpinning the behavior of PuO2 NPs under conditions not only relevant to the Hanford tank waste but at high ionic strength in general is needed to reliably predict the chemical reactivity of PuO2 NPs and develop engineering solutions to safely and efficiently process high-level radioactive waste into forms suitable for long-term storage. In this work, we study the behavior of PuO2 NPs (particle size ~100 nm) under high ionic strength conditions by reacting it with highly concentrated (up to 5 M) salt solutions. We explore different electrolyte compositions to elucidate the impact of different anions (NO3-, Cl-, ClO4-, SO42-, C2O42-, CO32-) on the stability of PuO2 NP in the acidic and alkaline pH regime. PuO2 NP aggregation and precipitation as function electrolyte concentration is tracked by a combination of liquid scintillation counting, dynamic light scattering for determination of particle size distributions, and zeta potentials as a proxy for particle charge. At acidic pH, electrolytes containing non-coordinating anions, such as NaNO3, NaCl, and NaClO4 mostly stabilize PuO2 NPs over a large electrolyte concentration range, showing only subtle differences in their reactivity. Other electrolyte anions show a more pronounced effect on the PuO2 NP stability: SO42-, binds directly to the particles’ surface, reverses the particle charge, and precipitates the PuO2 NPs efficiently even at intermediate sulfate concentrations (>0.1 M). In contrast, C2O42- is found to lead to high [Pu] in solution, in the milli-molar range, even at mildly acidic pH (~4). Thermodynamic modeling of the dissolved Pu concentrations using PHREEQC is unable to predict the observed [Pu] in the acidic pH regime, supporting the influence of colloids in maintaining elevated [Pu]. It is noteworthy that the current thermodynamic databases do not include constants for colloidal Pu phases and cannot accurately predict many of the high ionic strength solutions relevant to this work. The mechanisms and models responsible for these observations will need further investigation in the future. At high pH values (~12), PuO2 NPs exhibits classical sol-gel chemistry, meaning that upon destabilization of the colloidal sol, for example by addition of concentrated NaOH, highly porous and viscid PuO2 coagulates are formed that consist of a three-dimensional network likely held together by physical interactions. The PuO2 NP coagulate shows no significant reversibility of the aggregation when contacted with concentrated brines; however, PuO2 NPs can be efficiently resuspended in solution by addition of diluted electrolytes, alkaline solutions containing high amounts of carbonate, or simple addition of water. Especially carbonate is shown to stabilize PuO2 NPs in solution at high pH, characterized by stable colloidal suspensions that are resistant against sedimentation during centrifugation. Thermodynamic modeling of the carbonate system was able to predict an increasing dissolved Pu concentration with increasing carbonate concentration. However, the model was profoundly sensitive to the fixed redox potential and does not include any thermodynamic constants for colloidal Pu species.

Neumann, Julia↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Interaction Between Energy Efficiency and Demand Response on Regional Grid Scales: Preprint

With increasing penetration of intermittent renewable generation at grid and distributed scales, flexible building loads can provide significant system value and support the evolving needs of the grid. The growing value of load flexibility may complicate the traditional separation between energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR). EE measures may compete in some cases with a building’s DR capabilities but complement one another in other cases. EE can also increase or decrease the need for DR at the system level and change the availability of DR to meet system needs. In this study we present a bottom-up approach to modeling interactive effects between EE and DR in buildings within two regions of the US electricity grid. From a library of building simulation models for different buildings and climates, we synthesize system-level demand profiles and the impacts of potential future EE portfolios. Coupling the underlying building models with a database of DR-enabling technologies, we then compute the quantity of DR that can be delivered in each scenario. The results show that EE and DR interactions are largely driven by the timing of EE savings that are measure-specific and the coincidence with system peak demand that is region-specific. We also find that perspective of the impacts matters – for instance that some EE measures reduce the system need for DR but also reduce the DR potential. Our results imply that utility EE and DR programs developed without considering interactive effects may lead to increased grid-management challenges over the long term.

buildings↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Cyber Situational Understanding

Effective cybersecurity operations require the ability to analyze large amounts of information to assess security risks and formulate defensive strategies against adversaries. This has become more complex in recent years as the sprawl and interconnectivity of devices grows through implementation of virtualization, cloud computing, and Internet of Things (IoT). The amount of data and analysis required for effective cybersecurity command and control decisions far exceeds humans’ capacity to perform manually. We characterize the analysis problem as cyber situational understanding. The research presented to improve cyber situational understanding focuses on vulnerability analysis and threat intelligence. Regarding vulnerabilities, entities must analyze and plan work for between thousands and tens of thousands of software vulnerabilities annually. Entities heavily use network firewalls to limit vulnerability exposure. As a result, some of these vulnerabilities permit exposure to adversarial exploitation, whereas others are inaccessible and therefore present negligible risk of exploitation. Distinguishing between high and low risk software vulnerabilities requires a deep understanding of the vulnerability, network firewall protection, and characteristics of the targeted device. This problem is solved by extracting network service features from vulnerability data features using both machine-learning and natural language processing. Then, the network firewall topology is parsed to determine which vulnerabilities are reachable by adversaries. Ultimately, a state-based safety analysis ascertains which vulnerabilities are unsafe. A related vulnerability analysis problem occurs in cybersecurity operations when associating an entity’s hardware and software assets to public vulnerability databases. Assets often reveal hardware and software through installation artifacts and network service identification, and entities store these artifacts in inventory databases. However, software and hardware vendors apply a standard Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) naming convention when publicly reporting vulnerabilities. Associating these two datasets often requires many hours to days of manual inspection. The proposed solution automates the mapping approach of human analysts using fuzzy matching techniques, natural language processing, and, ultimately, machine learning to present a small set of recommendations for mapping the two datasets. The result significantly reduces human analysis time and reduces the occurrence of false positives in vulnerability notifications. Finally, cyber threat intelligence (CTI) requires associating cyber observable artifacts, such as IP addresses, URIs, and file hashes, with cyber threat tactics, techniques, and procedures. Unfortunately, most CTI data is compartmentalized across multiple organizations and cannot be shared due to the legal and reputational risk with cyber threat being associated with the entity. The approach to solving this problem inovlves using a distributed ledger with anonymous token spending and authentication. This allows a consortium of semi-trusted entities to share the workload of curating CTI for a threat sharing community’s cooperative benefit.

Huff, Philip↗

DOE OSTI2026

An AI-driven framework for evaluating local and state authorities’ permitting processes

The demand for new energy infrastructure is increasing across the United States, but heterogenous permitting processes and embedded requirements across different local jurisdictions can cause project delays, increase “soft costs,” and hinder developer expansion. This study analyzes the variability in local permitting requirements across the U.S. and develops a quantitative approach to describe their clarity and effectiveness in enabling infrastructure project development. By using an Energy Language Model (ELM), a large language model (LLM) for energy technologies, we systematically gathered permitting information from nearly 300 state-, county-, and city-level documents, creating a structured dataset of requirements and procedures on an unprecedented scale and speed. Our analysis revealed that local (city and county) permitting requirement documents are underrepresented compared to state-level guidance documents, which can impede timely and cost-effective installation of new electric infrastructure. Our validation process showed that the final database has an accuracy of approximately 95%. We, further, created a new quantitative method to score permitting requirements for clarity and efficiency, with electric vehicle supply equipment as an initial use case. The average local permitting document scored a 1.8 out of 5, which we interpret as meaning that half of the requirements developers face when installing electric infrastructure are ambiguous, increasing both cost and time. We also created a “Generalized Permit Process”, highlighting common procedural steps and identifying specific opportunities for municipalities to improve their documentation. This research establishes a systematic and scalable framework for evaluating the complexities of local infrastructure permitting processes by combining LLM-powered data collection and quantitative scoring. The framework enables policymakers and developers to identify and mitigate procedural bottlenecks, with the expectation that these improvements can accelerate application review and approval, reduce project costs, and expedite connection to utility distribution grids. As a foundational approach for streamlining local project development processes, this study’s methods are intended to be extended to a wide range of energy applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emerging Technologies for Privacy Preservation in Energy Systems

This study explores the intersection of digitalization and privacy within the energy sector, focusing on the emerging challenges and opportunities presented by integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and advanced metering infrastructure. The need for robust digital privacy measures has become crucial as the energy industry evolves towards a more decentralized, digitalized, and decarbonized future. This study delves into four cutting-edge privacy-preserving technologies—Homomorphic Encryption (HE), Secure Multiparty Computation (SMPC), Differential Privacy (DP), and Federated Learning (FL)—each offering unique solutions to safeguard consumer data by increasing digital connectivity and data exchange. Through a detailed examination of these methods, the study explains how each technology operates, its applications within the energy sector, and the specific privacy challenges it addresses. Homomorphic Encryption allows for secure computations on encrypted data, enabling data analysis without compromising privacy. Secure Multiparty Computation enables collaborative data analysis across different entities while protecting the confidentiality of the inputs. Differential Privacy introduces randomness into the assembled data set, preventing the identification of individual records in statistical databases. Lastly, Federated Learning offers a paradigm shift in data analysis, where machine learning models are trained at the edge, minimizing the centralization of sensitive data. The research underscores the significance of implementing these privacy-enhancing technologies to comply with strict data protection regulations, foster consumer trust, and enhance the security of the energy infrastructure. By providing a comprehensive overview of these methodologies and their practical implications for the energy sector, this study aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on digital privacy, offering insights into how the energy industry can navigate the complexities of data privacy in the digital age.

Cali, Umit↗

DOE OSTI2023

3P Program: Phenotyping X Prediction = Productivity (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The goal of the 3P Program was to establish integrated, real-time phenotyping and to analyze above- and below-ground plant architecture and total carbon partitioning and allocation to predict heterosis and develop superior crop hybrids by fully leveraging the Sorghum gene pool. There were two overarching themes: 1) the development of a new crop improvement approach utilizing advances in high-throughput phenotyping (HTP), computing, and genomics for public dissemination and 2) leveraging this platform for sorghum crop improvement and commercialization. The Clemson team worked on creating genomic resources and using both statistical learning and high-throughput phenotyping in genomics-assisted breeding. Research was broadly interested in the genetics of carbon partitioning, with the aim of improving crop performance and achieving sustainability. The technology and resources created can be readily found in the public domain and serve to advance scientific understanding of crop genomics and breeding. Genomic prediction was able to identify top crosses to be made, and a hybrid prediction pipeline is in place to drive year-over-year genetic gain. Roots have long been ignored by plant breeders and agronomists, not because they are unimportant but because they are hard to measure. This is an untapped white space of potential insight and innovation. To address this, Hi Fidelity Genetics developed the RootTracker to measure roots in the field on a continuous basis. A database system called RootTracker Tracker was developed to handle data coming from the RootTrackers. In using this device, valuable data was observed for plant breeding, hydrochemical development, and other agricultural biology applications. Carnegie Mellon’s goal was developing new techniques to generate high-resolution 3D models of plants from data collected in the field. The idea was that more useful and more informative phenotypes could be extracted by resolving small features, such as seeds and flowers, and that by modeling in 3D, the spatial structure of plants could be examined. To achieve this, multiple images collected by a new small format structured light stereo imager were fused together. A sorghum panicle modeling pipeline was developed to allow the collection and processing of data. Carolina Seed Systems is an agricultural technology company focused on decarbonizing the agricultural system. Their technology pipeline serves to drive fundamental progress towards creation and distribution of carbon negative crops. The genomic and the engineering technology developed through the 3P Program was leveraged to deliver both value and sustainability from the grower to the consumer. Promising sorghum hybrids were scaled up and commercialized. The overall goal of our research was to integrate, create, and deploy genetic and engineering concepts and technologies to enhance crop productivity in a sustainable fashion. The combination of public and private partners allowed the basic research and hypothesis testing to be quickly accelerated for commercial application by the companies yet maintained that the core framework and academic insights remain in the public domain for continued market disruption, competition, and innovation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗