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Mapped Landmark Algorithm for Precision Landing

A report discusses a computer vision algorithm for position estimation to enable precision landing during planetary descent. The Descent Image Motion Estimation System for the Mars Exploration Rovers has been used as a starting point for creating code for precision, terrain-relative navigation during planetary landing. The algorithm is designed to be general because it handles images taken at different scales and resolutions relative to the map, and can produce mapped landmark matches for any planetary terrain of sufficient texture. These matches provide a measurement of horizontal position relative to a known landing site specified on the surface map. Multiple mapped landmarks generated per image allow for automatic detection and elimination of bad matches. Attitude and position can be generated from each image; this image-based attitude measurement can be used by the onboard navigation filter to improve the attitude estimate, which will improve the position estimates. The algorithm uses normalized correlation of grayscale images, producing precise, sub-pixel images. The algorithm has been broken into two sub-algorithms: (1) FFT Map Matching (see figure), which matches a single large template by correlation in the frequency domain, and (2) Mapped Landmark Refinement, which matches many small templates by correlation in the spatial domain. Each relies on feature selection, the homography transform, and 3D image correlation. The algorithm is implemented in C++ and is rated at Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4.

Johnson, Andrew↗

Evapotranspiration as a Regional Climate Priority: Results from a NASA/USDA Workshop

On April 5 to 7, 2011, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) sponsored a Workshop on Evapotranspiration (ET) in Silver Spring Maryland. The workshop was a response to a recommendation in the 2009-2011 GEO (Group on Earth Observations) Work Plan that a workshop on ET should be held to discuss issues related to ET products and services and the potential for incorporating ET activities into the 2012-2015 GEO Work Plan. The workshop had a regional emphasis, although there were several excellent international and global presentations including one on the GEWEX LANDFLUX project. The different scales of these activities suggests that a framework is needed that can accommodate both regional and global ET activities. Despite limitations with the workshop's scheduling, it attracted 76 experts who contributed informative presentations and insightful discussions. The goals of the workshop involved the exchange of information and ideas and the development of plans for providing more visibility for ET issues. Specific objectives included 1) defining the needs and requirements for evapotranspiration data in weather and climate studies, in natural and agro-ecoystem monitoring, and in water resource management; 2) reviewing the methods used to measure and model evapotranspiration; 3) assessing surface and satellite observation systems required to support ET measurement, modeling and evaluation; 4) assessing the feasibility of developing a proposal for a task on evapotranspiration for the 2012-2015 GEO Work Plan, and 5) exploring the level of support and consensus for developing a strategy for establishing evapotranspiration as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) within the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) framework The workshop featured a combination of oral presentations and breakout group sessions focused on the above objectives. There were also poster presentations providing opportunities for one-on-one discussions of ET modeling and measurement techniques. Presentations by users of ET data set the tone for the workshop. In the USA at the national and regional levels water rights issues represent a major opportunity for ET applications. ET data play a major role in estimating water loss due to irrigation, the largest cause of consumptive water loss in the USA, particularly in the West. Irrigation requirements are relatively specific since the needs are clearly defined by the geometry and number of the irrigation systems and can be monitored with high resolution satellite data. There was a strong consensus that land surface temperature (LST) at high resolution is critical for monitoring irrigation. State governments have made commitments to more efficient water management in the western US, but they need full access to improved and more timely ET data and applications to implement this plan. Water managers also reported that in spite of the recent development of. new techniques, the procedures used in some of the water balance calculations in some states are out of date and do not take advantage of new observational and data assimilation systems. The development of ET forecasts for water management is also seen as a priority. Although ET forecasts are currently being produced on an experimental basis these predictions could be improved by considering ET as a dynamic prediction variable in models and by increasing the time resolution of these ET predictions.

Lawford, Richard↗

Aerodynamic Testing of the Orion Launch Abort Tower Separation with Jettison Motor Jet Interactions

The aerodynamic database for the Orion Launch Abort System (LAS) was developed largely from wind tunnel tests involving powered jet simulations of the rocket exhaust plumes, supported by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The LAS contains three solid rocket motors used in various phases of an abort to provide propulsion, steering, and Launch Abort Tower (LAT) jettison from the Crew Module (CM). This paper describes a pair of wind tunnel experiments performed at transonic and supersonic speeds to determine the aerodynamic effects due to proximity and jet interactions during LAT jettison from the CM at the end of an abort. The tests were run using two different scale models at angles of attack from 150deg to 200deg , sideslip angles from -10deg to +10deg , and a range of powered thrust levels from the jettison motors to match various jet simulation parameters with flight values. Separation movements between the CM and LAT included axial and vertical translations as well as relative pitch angle between the two bodies. The paper details aspects of the model design, nozzle scaling methodology, instrumentation, testing procedures, and data reduction. Sample data are shown to highlight trends seen in the results.

Rhode, Matthew N.↗

Global and Regional Trends of Aerosol Optical Depth over Land and Ocean Using SeaWiFS Measurements from 1997 to 2010

Both sensor calibration and satellite retrieval algorithm play an important role in the ability to determine accurately long-term trends from satellite data. Owing to the unprecedented accuracy and long-term stability of its radiometric calibration, the SeaWiFS measurements exhibit minimal uncertainty with respect to sensor calibration. In this study, we take advantage of this well-calibrated set of measurements by applying a newly-developed aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm over land and ocean to investigate the distribution of AOD, and to identify emerging patterns and trends in global and regional aerosol loading during its 13-year mission. Our results indicate that the averaged AOD trend over global ocean is weakly positive from 1998 to 2010 and comparable to that observed by MODIS but opposite in sign to that observed by AVHRR during overlapping years. On a smaller scale, different trends are found for different regions. For example, large upward trends are found over the Arabian Peninsula that indicate a strengthening of the seasonal cycle of dust emission and transport processes over the whole region as well as over downwind oceanic regions. In contrast, a negative-neutral tendency is observed over the desert/arid Saharan region as well as in the associated dust outflow over the north Atlantic. Additionally, we found decreasing trends over the eastern US and Europe, and increasing trends over countries such as China and India that are experiencing rapid economic development. In general, these results are consistent with those derived from ground-based AERONET measurements.

Hsu, N. C.↗

Aerosol and Surface Parameter Retrievals for a Multi-Angle, Multiband Spectrometer

This software retrieves the surface and atmosphere parameters of multi-angle, multiband spectra. The synthetic spectra are generated by applying the modified Rahman-Pinty-Verstraete Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model, and a single-scattering dominated atmosphere model to surface reflectance data from Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). The aerosol physical model uses a single scattering approximation using Rayleigh scattering molecules, and Henyey-Greenstein aerosols. The surface and atmosphere parameters of the models are retrieved using the Lavenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The software can retrieve the surface and atmosphere parameters with two different scales. The surface parameters are retrieved pixel-by-pixel while the atmosphere parameters are retrieved for a group of pixels where the same atmosphere model parameters are applied. This two-scale approach allows one to select the natural scale of the atmosphere properties relative to surface properties. The software also takes advantage of an intelligent initial condition given by the solution of the neighbor pixels.

Broderick, Daniel↗

Applications for Near-Real Time Satellite Cloud and Radiation Products

At NASA Langley Research Center, a variety of cloud, clear-sky, and radiation products are being derived at different scales from regional to global using geostationary satellite (GEOSat) and lower Earth-orbiting (LEOSat) imager data. With growing availability, these products are becoming increasingly valuable for weather forecasting and nowcasting. These products include, but are not limited to, cloud-top and base heights, cloud water path and particle size, cloud temperature and phase, surface skin temperature and albedo, and top-of-atmosphere radiation budget. Some of these data products are currently assimilated operationally in a numerical weather prediction model. Others are used unofficially for nowcasting, while testing is underway for other applications. These applications include the use of cloud water path in an NWP model, cloud optical depth for detecting convective initiation in cirrus-filled skies, and aircraft icing condition diagnoses among others. This paper briefly describes a currently operating system that analyzes data from GEOSats around the globe (GOES, Meteosat, MTSAT, FY-2) and LEOSats (AVHRR and MODIS) and makes the products available in near-real time through a variety of media. Current potential future use of these products is discussed.

Minnis, Patrick↗

Comparison of the KSC-ER Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) and the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark)(NLDN)

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Eastern Range (ER) use data from two cloud-to-ground lightning detection networks, CGLSS and NLDN, during ground and launch operations at the KSC-ER. For these applications, it is very important to understand the location accuracy and detection efficiency of each network near the KSC-ER. If a cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strike is missed or mis-located by even a small amount, the result could have significant safety implications, require expensive retests, or create unnecessary delays or scrubs in launches. Therefore, it is important to understand the performance of each lightning detection system in considerable detail. To evaluate recent upgrades in the CGLSS sensors in 2000 and the entire NLDN in 2002- 2003, we have compared. measurements provided by these independent networks in the summers of 2005 and 2006. Our analyses have focused on the fraction of first strokes reported individually and in-common by each network (flash detection efficiency), the spatial separation between the strike points reported by both networks (relative location accuracy), and the values of the estimated peak current, Ip, reported by each network. The results within 100 km of the KSC-ER show that the networks produce very similar values of Ip (except for a small scaling difference) and that the relative location accuracy is consistent with model estimates that give median values of 200-300m for the CGLSS and 600-700m for the NLDN in the region of the KSC-ER. Because of differences in the network geometries and sensor gains, the NLDN does not report 10-20% of the flashes that have a low Ip (2 kA < |Ip| < 16 kA), both networks report 99 % of the flashes that have intermediate values of Ip (16< |Ip| < 50 kA), and the CGLSS fails to report 20-30% of the high-current events (|Ip| >=0 kA).

Ward, Jennifer G.↗

Ridge Orientations of the Ridge-Forming Unit, Sinus Meridiani, Mars-A Fluvial Explanation

Imagery and MOLA data were used in an analysis of the ridge-forming rock unit (RFU) exposed in Sinus Meridiani (SM). This unit shows parallels at different scales with fluvial sedimentary bodies. We propose the terrestrial megafan as the prime analog for the RFU, and likely for other members of the layered units. Megafans are partial cones of fluvial sediment, with radii up to hundreds of km. Although recent reviews of hypotheses for the RFU units exclude fluvial hypotheses [1], inverted ridges in the deserts of Oman have been suggested as putative analogs for some ridges [2], apparently without appreciating The wider context in which these ridges have formed is a series of megafans [3], a relatively unappreciated geomorphic feature. It has been argued that these units conform to the megafan model at the regional, subregional and local scales [4]. At the regional scale suites of terrestrial megafans are known to cover large areas at the foot of uplands on all continents - a close parallel with the setting of the Meridiani sediments at the foot of the southern uplands of Mars, with its incised fluvial systems leading down the regional NW slope [2, 3] towards the sedimentary units. At the subregional scale the layering and internal discontinuities of the Meridiani rocks are consistent, inter alia, with stacked fluvial units [4]. Although poorly recognized as such, the prime geomorphic environment in which stream channel networks cover large areas, without intervening hillslopes, is the megafan [see e.g. 4]. Single megafans can reach 200,000 km2 [5]. Megafans thus supply an analog for areas where channel-like ridges (as a palimpsest of a prior landscape) cover the intercrater plains of Meridiani [6]. At the local, or river-reach scale, the numerous sinuous features of the RFU are suggestive of fluvial channels. Cross-cutting relationships, a common feature of channels on terrestrial megafans, are ubiquitous. Desert megafans show cemented paleo-channels as inverted topography [4] with all these characteristics.

Wilkinson, M. Justin↗

Micromechanical Characterization and Testing of Carbon Based Woven Thermal Protection Materials

Woven thermal protection system (TPS) materials are one of the enabling technologies for mechanically deployable hypersonic decelerator systems. These materials can be simultaneously used for thermal protection and as structural load bearing members during the entry, descent and landing operations. In order to ensure successful thermal and structural performance during the atmospheric entry, it is important to characterize the properties of these materials, once they have been subjected to entry like conditions. The present paper focuses on mechanical characteristics of pre-and post arc-jet tested woven TPS samples at different scales. It also presents the observations from scanning electron microscope and computed tomography images, and explains the changes in microstructure after being subjected to combined thermal-mechanical loading environments.

Agrawal, Parul↗

Hardware Design and Testing of SUPERball, A Modular Tensegrity Robot

We are developing a system of modular, autonomous "tensegrity end-caps" to enable the rapid exploration of untethered tensegrity robot morphologies and functions. By adopting a self-contained modular approach, different end-caps with various capabilities (such as peak torques, or motor speeds), can be easily combined into new tensegrity robots composed of rods, cables, and actuators of different scale (such as in length, mass, peak loads, etc). As a first step in developing this concept, we are in the process of designing and testing the end-caps for SUPERball (Spherical Underactuated Planetary Exploration Robot), a project at the Dynamic Tensegrity Robotics Lab (DTRL) within NASA Ames's Intelligent Robotics Group. This work discusses the evolving design concepts and test results that have gone into the structural, mechanical, and sensing aspects of SUPERball. This representative tensegrity end-cap design supports robust and repeatable untethered mobility tests of the SUPERball, while providing high force, high displacement actuation, with a low-friction, compliant cabling system.

Tensegrity↗

The Miniature Radio Frequency Instruments (Mini-RF) Global Observations of Earth's Moon

Radar provides a unique means to analyze the surface and subsurface physical properties of geologic deposits, including their wavelength-scale roughness, the relative depth of the deposits, and some limited compositional information. The NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter's (LRO) Miniature Radio Frequency (Mini-RF) instrument has enabled these analyses on the Moon at a global scale. Mini-RF has accumulated 67% coverage of the lunar surface in S-band (12.6 cm) radar with a resolution of 30 m/pixel. Here we present new Mini-RF global orthorectified uncontrolled S-band maps of the Moon and use them for analysis of lunar surface physical properties. Reported here are readily apparent global- and regional-scale differences in lunar surface physical properties that suggest three distinct terranes, namely: a (1) Nearside Radar Dark Region; (2) Orientale basin and continuous ejecta; and the (3) Highlands Radar Bright Region. Integrating these observations with new data from LRO's Diviner Radiometer rock abundance maps, as well Clementine and Lunar Prospector derived compositional values show multiple distinct lunar surface terranes and sub-terranes based upon both physical and compositional surface properties. Previous geochemical investigations of the Moon suggested its crust is best divided into three to four basic crustal provinces or terranes (Feldspathic Highlands Terrane (-An and -Outer), Procellarum KREEP Terrane, and South Pole Aitken Terrane) that are distinct from one another. However, integration of these geochemical data sets with new geophysical data sets allows us to refine these terranes. The result shows a more complex view of these same crustal provinces and provides valuable scientific and hazard perspectives for future targeted human and robotic exploration.

Radar observations↗

Future Food Production System Development Pulling from Space Biology Crop Growth Testing in Veggie

Preliminary crop testing using Veggie indicates the environmental conditions provided by the ISS are generally suitable for food crop production. When plant samples were returned to Earth for analysis, their levels of nutrients were comparable to Earth-grown ground controls. Veggie-grown produce food safety microbiology analysis indicated that space-grown crops are safe to consume. Produce sanitizing wipes were used on-orbit to further reduce risk of foodborne illness. Validation growth tests indicated abiotic challenges of insufficient or excess fluid delivery, potentially reduced air flow leading to excess water, elevated CO2 leading to physiological responses, and microorganisms that became opportunistic pathogens. As NASA works to develop future space food production, several areas of research to define these systems pull from the Veggie technology validation tests. Research into effective, reusable water delivery and water recovery methods for future food production systems arises from abiotic challenges observed. Additionally, impacts of elevated CO2 and refinement of fertilizer and light recipes for crops needs to be assessed. Biotic pulls include methods or technologies to effectively sanitize produce with few consumables and low inputs; work to understand the phytomicrobiome and potentially use it to protect crops or enhance growth; selection of crops with high harvest index and desirable flavors for supplemental nutrition; crops that provide psychosocial benefits, and custom space crop development. Planning for future food production in a deep space gateway or a deep space transit vehicle requires methods of handling and storing seeds, and ensuring space seeds are free of contaminants and long-lived. Space food production systems may require mechanization and autonomous operation, with preliminary testing initiated to identify operations and capabilities that are candidates for automation. Food production design is also pulling from Veggie logistics lessons, as we learn about growing at different scales and move toward developing systems that require less launch mass. Veggie will be used as a test bed for novel food production technologies. Veggie is a relatively simple precursor food production system but the knowledge gained from space biology validation tests in Veggie will have far reaching repercussions on future exploration food production.

Veggie↗

Future Food Production System Development Pulling From Space Biology Crop Growth Testing in Veggie

Preliminary crop testing using Veggie indicates the environmental conditions provided by the ISS are generally suitable for food crop production. When plant samples were returned to Earth for analysis, their levels of nutrients were comparable to Earth-grown ground controls. Veggie-grown produce food safety microbiology analysis indicated that space-grown crops are safe to consume. Produce sanitizing wipes were used on-orbit to further reduce risk of foodborne illness. Validation growth tests indicated abiotic challenges of insufficient or excess fluid delivery, potentially reduced air flow leading to excess water, elevated CO2 leading to physiological responses, and microorganisms that became opportunistic pathogens. As NASA works to develop future space food production, several areas of research to define these systems pull from the Veggie technology validation tests. Research into effective, reusable water delivery and water recovery methods for future food production systems arises from abiotic challenges observed. Additionally, impacts of elevated CO2 and refinement of fertilizer and light recipes for crops needs to be assessed. Biotic pulls include methods or technologies to effectively sanitize produce with few consumables and low inputs; work to understand the phytomicrobiome and potentially use it to protect crops or enhance growth; selection of crops with high harvest index and desirable flavors for supplemental nutrition; crops that provide psychosocial benefits, and custom space crop development. Planning for future food production in a deep space gateway or a deep space transit vehicle requires methods of handling and storing seeds, and ensuring space seeds are free of contaminants and long-lived. Space food production systems may require mechanization and autonomous operation, with preliminary testing initiated to identify operations and capabilities that are candidates for automation. Food production design is also pulling from Veggie logistics lessons, as we learn about growing at different scales and move toward developing systems that require less launch mass. Veggie will be used as a test bed for novel food production technologies. Veggie is a relatively simple precursor food production system but the knowledge gained from space biology validation tests in Veggie will have far reaching repercussions on future exploration food production. This work is supported by NASA.

Plants↗

Realistic 3D Radiative Modeling of Turbulent Structure of Moderate-Mass Stars and Sun

Understanding the turbulent dynamics of the Sun and stars is a critical element for interpreting observed processes and phenomena on different scales and for predicting extreme events such as flares and super flares. High-­‐resolution observations of the Sun and high-­‐fidelity radiative MHD numerical simulations have substantially advanced our understanding of solar and stellar local dynamics and magnetism from the upper convection zone to the atmosphere and corona. However, global modeling of the Sun with such a high degree of realism is currently not affordable due to the extremely high computational cost of resolving the scales in the convection zone. The physics of the deep solar dynamics can be effectively addressed through modeling more massive solar-­‐type stars where the convection zone is shallower and the convective overturning time is much shorter than those on the Sun. We present recent 3D realistic simulation results of moderate-­‐mass stars and discuss links between solar and stellar dynamics, such as the multiscale structure of granulation, convective overshoot, and others. In particular, these simulations have provided better understanding of the dynamics of the tachocline (the overshoot layer at the bottom of the convection zone) and have explained long-­‐ standing results from helioseismology.

Realistic↗

A Machine Learning Approach to Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Modeling

This paper investigates using machine learning to rapidly develop empirical models suitable for system-level aircraft noise studies. In particular, machine learning is used to train a neural network to predict the noise spectra produced by a round jet near a surface over a range of surface lengths, surface standoff distances, jet Mach numbers, and observer angles. These spectra include two sources, jet-mixing noise and jet-surface interaction (JSI) noise, with different scale factors as well as surface shielding and reflection effects to create a multi- dimensional problem. A second model is then trained using data from three rectangular nozzles to include nozzle aspect ratio in the spectral prediction. The training and validation data are from an extensive jet-surface interaction noise database acquired at the NASA Glenn Research Center's Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory. Although the number of training and validation points is small compared a typical machine learning application, the results of this investigation show that this approach is viable if the underlying data are well behaved.

Brown, Cliff↗

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction system is being readied for a major upgrade. An important factor in successful extended range forecasting is the definition of the ensemble. Our overall strategy is to run a relatively large ensemble of about 40 members up to 3 months (focusing on the sub-seasonal forecast problem), after which we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with about 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of our testing of various ways to generate the initial perturbations and the validation of a stratified sampling approach for choosing the members of the smaller ensemble. For the initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states (chosen randomly from the corresponding season) separated by 1-10 days. We consider perturbing separately the atmosphere and the ocean, or both. By varying the separation times between the analysis states, we are able to produce perturbations that resemble well-known modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread with, however, considerable differences in the timing of the impacts on spread for the atmospheric and oceanic perturbations.Our initial (larger) ensemble size was determined so as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes (namely the NAO, PNA and AO). Since it is not feasible for us to run with the larger ensemble beyond about 3 months, we employ a stratified sampling procedure that identifies the emerging directions of error growth to subset the ensemble. By comparing the results from the stratified ensemble with that of the randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we find that the former provides substantially better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

GMAO Sub/Seasonal prediction system (S2S) is being readied for a major upgrade to GEOS-S2S Version 3. An important factor in successful extended range forecast is the definition of an ensemble For initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. We plan to run a relatively large ensemble of 40 members for sub-seasonal forecast (up to 3 months), at which point we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of the extensive testing of various ways to generate the perturbations to the initial conditions and the validation of the stratified sampling strategy we chose.To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states separated by 1-10 days, randomly chosen from a corresponding season. We considered perturbing separately only the atmospheric fields or only the ocean or both of the forecast initial conditions. Considering varying separation times between the analysis states, we were able to produce perturbations sampling various modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread.Our ensemble size for sub-seasonal forecasts was determined as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes, NAO, PNA and AO. It is not feasible to run equally large ensemble for seasonal forecasts. Using a stratified sampling procedure we can identify the emerging directions of error growth. By comparing the stratified ensemble with randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we were able to show that the former better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗

Is There an Optimal CO2 Partial Column for Flux Inversions?

The fidelity of flux estimates from an atmospheric inversion depends on the ability of atmospheric transport models to simulate the measured quantity. For species such as CO2, with surface fluxes and a large network of surface measurements, this means correctly simulating the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which is one of the most uncertain aspects of atmospheric transport modeling. In contrast, the simulated total column average mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) is largely insensitive to simulated PBL dynamics. Therefore, measurements of XCO2 provided by current and future short wave infrared (SWIR) greenhouse gas (GHG) satellites such as GOSAT and the OCO family would seem to be more appropriate to flux inversions, as far as minimizing transport model errors (the "noise") is concerned. Unfortunately, the flux-induced variation of CO2 (the "signal") is the largest within the PBL and smallest in XCO2. Therefore, assimilating XCO2 as opposed to PBL CO2 need not give us the strongest "signal to noise" in flux inversions. Recent work on GOSAT and OCO2 retrievals suggest that SWIR satellite spectra may be used to estimate a lower partial column CO2, which could be assimilated in a flux inversion, instead of XCO2.Here we report on a study to assess whether there is an optimal partial column average CO2, intermediate between PBL CO2 and XCO2, whose assimilation might yield the best signal to noise in flux inversions, where (as before) "signal" is the flux-induced variation and "noise" is the error in transport modeling. We simulate atmospheric CO2 with five different global transport models and a common surface CO2 flux over ten years. We consider the spread across the five models to be a proxy for transport model error (the "noise"), and the common variation of CO2 in all five models to be a proxy for the "signal". We compare these signals and noises at different spatiotemporal scales for different partial column specifications to investigate whether there exists an optimal partial column that has large surface flux-driven variations and yet is relatively insensitive to errors in transport models. Finally, we comment on the feasibility of estimating such a partial column from current and future SWIR GHG satellites in the light of recent work on vertically resolved CO2 from current SWIR GHG satellites.

Basu, Sourish↗