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DOE OSTI2021

A NEA review on innovative structural materials solutions, including advanced manufacturing processes for nuclear applications based on technology readiness assessment

The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Expert Group on Innovative Structural Materials (EGISM) was established in 2008 under the guidance of the Nuclear Science Committee (NSC). Its objectives are to conduct joint and comparative studies to support the development, selection and characterisation of innovative structural materials that can be implemented in advanced nuclear fuel cycles, under long service lifetime and extreme conditions, such as high temperature, high dose/dose rate and corrosive chemical environments. In this context of growing interest and initiatives, the EGISM initiated at the beginning of 2018 an activity among its members to: Identify, in a non-exhaustive way, the currently existing programs on innovative materials and fabrication processes in NEA member countries and China; Establish a first cartography of the activities that are underway on these topics and identify common subjects and thematic; Propose a Technology Readiness Level scale to estimate the maturity of both innovative materials and fabrication processes; Carry out a reflection on what the enablers are to quickly climb this TRL scale, as well as the obstacles, in order to identify solutions to overcome them. This paper first gives definitions shared between the EGISM members on what are considered as advanced structural materials solutions. Next, some international initiatives for the accelerated development of high performance materials are presented both in non-nuclear and nuclear fields. Then, the methodology adopted for technology readiness assessment is explained. A non-exhaustive synthesis of the projects identified among the EGISM members on innovative structural materials and advanced manufacturing solutions such as additive manufacturing is presented. The TRL level of these projects is evaluated. A focus is also made on some of these projects to illustrate and explain the TRLs chosen as well as highlighting enablers or obstacles identified to climbing up the TRL scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Round Robin Measurements of Molten Salt Properties for LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK) and NaCl-KCl Mixtures

The development, operation, and regulation of nuclear reactors that utilize molten salts as fuel or as heat transfer media require knowledge of the thermal properties of the salt systems and quantification of the corresponding uncertainties. Knowledge of molten salt properties is also necessary for applications in material synthesis, processing, separations, solar thermal power generation, and energy storage. A round robin was conducted with national laboratory and university participants from twenty-one laboratories in five countries to compare property measurements, to better understand uncertainties, and to identify possible best practices. Two salt mixtures, each from a common batch, were distributed to participants for evaluation: equimolar NaCl-KCl and 45.0LiF-13.7NaF-41.3KF mol % (FLiNaK). Measurements were performed to determine the major constituent composition, oxygen content, density, thermal expansivity, melting point, and thermal conductivity. Error analysis was performed on each measurement for uncertainty quantification for each type of property that was explored. Finally, the resulting discussion of the methodologies used in this work is meant to lay the groundwork for the development of standard methods and reference materials for future high-temperature property measurements on halide melts.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Classified library celebrates two-year anniversary print your own commemorative history posters

Today is the National Security Research Center’s second anniversary. These two years, though, have been eight decades in the making, said NSRC Director Riz Ali. “We opened our doors in 2019, but the Center’s beginnings date back to World War II when J. Robert Oppenheimer created the Lab in Los Alamos to develop the first-ever nuclear weapons,” Ali said. “An important part of opening the Lab included standing up a technical reports library. Since then, we have amassed millions of holdings and today we are one of the top research institutions in the country.” What had long-been a repository of classified archival materials is today a dynamic, vibrant library that outsizes the collections of other similar research libraries around the country. Today, the NSRC houses the Laboratory’s classified nuclear weapons research, data and reports, as well as unclassified historical artifacts – the stories, photos, films and more from the people who have been a part of the Lab from the start.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conflicts of Greens’ in Renewable Energy Landscapes: Case Studies and a Planning Framework

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) through renewable energy deployment is a goal for many cities and nations to mitigate the effects of a rapidly changing climate while securing energy needs. Given national and state level policies on green energy to achieve GHG reduction targets, localities are considering utility-scale renewable energy (USRE) facilities on remote lands, rural areas, oceans, coastal waters and large rivers to meet the energy needs for urban residents and industries. Although these USRE facilities generate much “greener” electricity than fossil fuel power plants, locating them can pose conflicts with wildlife, including endangered, threatened and/or special status species, and the habitats that support wildlife populations (Brunette et al., 2013; Gasparatos et al. 2016; Mulvaney 2017), which lead to a “Conflict of Greens” (Ko et al., 2011). In addition to ecological impacts, conflicts over social and cultural resources in local communities lead to concerns over environmental justice, in this context “energy justice,” where negative environmental, social, and economic impacts of energy projects fall more heavily upon marginalized, vulnerable, or indigenous communities. The Pacific Rim region is a center of major and growing economies, and it has become a battlefield for competing “green” objectives. In addition to progressive renewable energy goals, such as in California, Hawaii, and Taiwan, countries around the Pacific Rim have the majority of the growth in manufacturing of wind and solar energy devices and also some of the highest levels of renewables deployment with China, India, and the US leading the way in wind and solar installations. Developing renewable energy source in the ocean such as offshore wind, tidal, and wave energy, are beginning to add to this mix. Given this challenge, the APRU SCL energy working group provides six case studies that address questions about the “Conflict of Greens” across the Pacific Rim including South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States (California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts). The literature review highlights the emerging ecological, social, and economic aspects of conflicts over siting renewables on the landscape. Using case studies, we examine the trial and errors in least-conflict spatial planning, data collection and analysis, public participation in decision-making, mitigation, social planning for energy transitions, and multi-scalar approaches. Lastly, we recommend interdisciplinary policy, planning, and design actions for sustainable energy landscapes across the Pacific Rim and beyond.

green versus green, renewable energy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Regulations for Bat Protection in Mexico's Wind Farms

Wind energy development has expanded the fastest globally among all renewable sources during the last 20 years. However, wind farms have documented adverse impacts on bats, including mortality from collisions with turbine blades and disruptions to habitat and behavior. As the world's sixth most attractive economy for renewables, with 70 operating wind farms, Mexico and its bats now face escalating threats from the country's burgeoning wind industry. Despite this rapid growth, few studies have analyzed Mexico's regulatory framework to prevent, evaluate, and mitigate wind farm effects on bats. In this study, we reviewed Mexican laws and treaties that facilitate wind farm permitting, construction, operation, and decommissioning, and searched for guidelines that specifically address bat conservation. We found eight international pacts that promote wind power adoption along with three relevant articles in Mexico's Constitution. The General Law of Ecological Balance and Environmental Protection proved most pertinent for impact management. Supplementary guidelines from the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources offer general strategies for evaluating wind farm impacts on bats, but adherence remains voluntary. Given expanding wind power investments across Mexico, we highlight the need for more stringent national standards that require preventative and corrective measures to protect bat populations. Tighter legislation and enforcement offer pathways toward environmentally sustainable wind energy development in Mexico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Plug-in electric vehicles in China and the USA: a technology and market comparison

As the top two plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) markets in the world, China and the United States of America (USA) have developed different market structures that are influenced by government policies, test procedures, customer acceptance, and vehicle performance. There are differences in PEV test procedures and vehicle class definitions as well. This paper quantifies such differences and compares PEV characteristics and markets in the two countries using actual data collected over several years. First, although China surpasses the USA in annual PEV production because of generous PEV policies and higher charging infrastructure availability, the USA has a higher PEV adoption rate per capita (2.3 versus 0.81 per 1000 people at the end of 2017). Second, the most popular vehicle classes are A00 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in China but long-range mid-size BEVs in the USA. Moreover, China's electric and plug-in hybrid sport utility vehicle market is growing quickly. Third, the electricity consumption rated under Chinese test procedures is 20%-40% lower than that rated under US procedures. The sales-weighted electricity consumption of an average BEV in China is 23% lower than that in the USA because of larger proportions of small and micro BEVs in China. Fourth, PEV battery cost in the two countries is currently close to $210-$220 kWh. Finally, China has higher numbers of charging infrastructure, and the ratio of PEVs to public chargers is 9.0 in China versus 17.9 in the USA at the end of 2018.

China EV market↗

DOE OSTI2025

Critical minerals lists for low-carbon transitions: Reviewing their structure, objectives, and limitations

Critical minerals lists have flourished in the past decade, in particular linked to the importance of critical minerals for low-carbon transitions. We identified 27 critical minerals or materials lists across 15 countries and the European Union (EU). These lists are designed to attract public and private attention and investments to secure both domestic and foreign supplies. This review article fills a gap in the existing literature by analyzing the ways in which these lists are defined and utilized by countries engaged in a mineral rush. We focus our attention on three categories of minerals – battery minerals, platinum-group metals (PGMs), and rare earth elements (REEs) that are particularly important to energy transitions. We situate this research in the broader legal and administrative developments that have driven critical minerals policies in the past decade. We provide an in-depth analysis of the commonalities and variations in the raw materials included in these lists, and identify six core limitations of critical minerals lists: (1) unclear links between criticality assessments and mineral prioritization (2) failure to account for the full mineral value-chain; (3) limited strategic alignment between allied nations; (4) limited flexibility in dynamic environments (5) limited consideration for recycling and by-product sourcing; and (6) reliance on incomplete reserve and resource data.

Battery minerals↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Siting Ordinances on Land Availability for Wind and Solar Development

In the United States, many siting regulations for wind and solar developments are created at the county or township level. Here we survey local zoning ordinances across the contiguous United States to understand the types and frequency of ordinances that might impact wind and solar development. We identify over 1,800 ordinances for wind and more than 800 ordinances for solar in 2022. To understand the impact of ordinances on anticipated land availability, we use spatial modelling on the setbacks specified in the ordinances. Extrapolating the setbacks throughout the country can reduce wind and solar resources by up to 87% and 38%, respectively, depending on the size of the setbacks applied. These results indicate the importance of capturing setback ordinances in resources assessments so as to not overstate resource potential, especially when considering highly decarbonized futures.

county↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Siting Ordinances on Land Availability for Wind and Solar Development

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

User Friendly Web-Based Tool to Assess the Energy Efficiency and Durability of Residential Wall Retrofits

According to the U.S. Department of Energy Windows and Building Envelope Research and Development Roadmap for Emerging Technologies, building envelope wall energy loss in the United States accounts for about 5.9 x 1010 kWh or 2 quads of energy annually, costing homeowners and occupants billions of dollars. Enclosure retrofits targeting these losses can save significant energy, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and save occupants millions of dollars over time. Older homes, built before 1992 when DOE’s Building Energy Codes Program was established, represent approximately 68 percent of the residential building stock in the country, often having significant air leakage and inadequate insulation. Homes with little to no air sealing or insulation have heating and cooling losses that can represent a substantial portion of utility bills.High-performance building envelope retrofit systems are rarely selected for retrofit applications. Current solutions are expensive and/or unfamiliar to many designers, builders, contractors, and code officials and therefore are perceived as risky. The dominant perceived risk is durability specifically related to condensation and moisture accumulation in the building envelope component.The Building Science Advisor (BSA) is a rule-based expert system web-based tool that was originally developed to assist building professionals in designing energy efficient and durable wall systems for new construction. With the present focus being placed on upgrading the existing building stock, a retrofit module has been developed that, based on the location, existing construction, and planned retrofit strategy, provides recommendations on how to address the retrofit in a manner that will perform in accordance with IECC 2018 building code and not create a durability problem. This paper will describe the development of this tool and demonstrate its features and capabilities.

Desjarlais, Andre Omer↗

DOE OSTI2022

Task 12 PV Sustainability - Status of PV Module Recycling in Selected IEA PVPS Task 12 Countries

Photovoltaic (PV) deployment has accelerated in recent years compared to projections in the early 2010s. This means that PV end of life (EOL) waste streams will also increase at a higher pace than anticipated. To meet and optimise PV EOL management, appropriate regulatory and technological approaches must be implemented in the near term, ensuring that available options are adapted to the conditions of each country or region. This report aims to review the current regulatory and industrial landscape for selected countries belonging to the International Energy Agency's PV Power Systems technology collaboration programme, to assess status of PV EOL management, allow for comparison and cross-fertilization, and establish a foundation for future tracking of progress. Although volumes of EOL PV modules are still small, EOL PV is treated and recycled in a proper manner in the countries and regions that have EOL regulations in place. However, the current low volumes, limited available recycling technologies, logistics challenges, and undeveloped markets for recovered materials result in a high-cost, low-revenue scenario for PV module recycling globally. Nevertheless, the implementation of PV EOL regulations in more countries and R&D investment in PV recycling is expected to accelerate further improvements to meet future demand and to achieve high-value, low-cost recycling. We hope this report contributes to understanding the global status of PV recycling and to accelerating its development as a promising option for the proper EOL management of PV modules in the coming decades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation

Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035

Under the next cycle of target setting under the Paris Agreement, countries will be updating and submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) over the coming year. To this end, there is a growing need for the United States to assess potential pathways toward a new, maximally ambitious 2035 NDC. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, across all sectors and gases. Additionally, we develop a high-ambition scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies from these actors. We find that existing policies can reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44% (with a range of 37% to 52%) by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. The high-ambition scenario can deliver net GHG reductions up to 65% (with a range of 59% to 71%) by 2035 under accelerated implementation of federal regulations and investments, as well as state policies such as renewable portfolio standards, EV sales targets, and zero-emission appliance standards. This level of reductions would provide a basis for continued progress toward the country’s 2050 net-zero emissions goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the Value of Automation for Concentrating Solar Power Industry Operations (Final Report)

This report summarizes findings from a small, mixed-method research study examining industry perspectives on the potential for new forms of automation to invigorate the concentrating solar power (CSP) industry. In Fall 2021, the Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) funded Sandia National Laboratories to elicit industry stakeholder perspectives on the potential role of automated systems in CSP operations. We interviewed eleven CSP professionals from five countries, using a combination of structured and open comment response modes. Respondents indicated a preference for automated systems that support heliostat manufacturing and installation, calibration, and responsiveness to shifting weather conditions. This pilot study demonstrates the importance of engaging industry stakeholders in discussions of technology research and development, to promote adoptable, useful innovation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling

International trade provides an avenue for terrorists to smuggle illicit materials into a target country. Policymakers need models and decision support tools that are both reliable and germane to inform their responses to this. Game theoretic approaches have been used in the analysis of counterterrorism strategies, but the models involved have often been small and abstracted. To address this need, we have developed a multi-game model to account for both security-related and economic aspects of counter-smuggling interdiction efforts. Additionally, we use different games to represent different types of interactions, and these games are then coupled to each other to form an integrated model. In this paper, we demonstrate the model's capabilities on a representative system of ports (both foreign and domestic), trade routes, and commodities. We specifically investigate the impacts of changes in screening policies at domestic ports, detection device capabilities, shipping subsidies, and worldwide corruption levels. In these studies, we find that economic factors play a large role in the interdiction task and provide correspondingly important tools for deterrence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating soil N 2 O emissions induced by organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs using a Tier-2, regression-based meta-analytic approach for U.S. agricultural lands

Consistent methods are essential for generating country and region-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used for reporting and policymaking. The estimates of direct N 2 O emissions from U.S. agricultural soils have primarily relied on the use of emission factors (EFs, Tier-1) and process-based models (Tier-3). However, Tier-1 estimates are relatively crude while Tier-3 calculations can be costly. This work addressed this gap by developing a Tier-2, regression-based approach by leveraging a meta-database containing 1883 field N 2 O observations together with environmental and management covariates from 139 studies. Our results estimated higher monthly soil N 2 O emissions (N 2 O m , kg N/ha) during the growing season (0.38) than the fallow period (0.15), highlighting the importance of considering measurement periods when utilizing meta-databases for analyzing N 2 O drivers. Significantly different N 2 O m were found for tillage practices (conventional > no-till: 0.42 > 0.27), fertilizer type (liquid > solid manure: 0.55 > 0.32), and soil texture (fine > coarse: 0.36 > 0.22). The comparisons of the influence of crop type and rotation, water management, and soil order on N 2 O emissions are complicated by regional data availability and interactions among different factors. Additionally, the finding that N 2 O emissions reported based on area (N 2 O m ), N input rate (EF), or yield can alter treatment rankings underscores the need to establish transparent criteria for rewarding or discouraging regionally-based management practices using N 2 O metrics. Finally, we show how General Linear Models (GLMs) can be used to estimate country and regional Tier-2 N 2 O m using a suite of covariates. Our GLMs identified tillage, water management, N input type and rate, soil properties, and elevation as the most influential covariates for the conterminous U.S. The limited accuracy of regional-scale GLMs, however, suggests the need to further improve the quality and availability of GHG and covariate data through concerted efforts in data collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗