Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “demand uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21

Datasets for Widespread Residential Space Heating Electrification in Texas

In this experiment, we explore long term patterns in electricity demand driven by the dual effects of full electrification of space heating in Texas (by adoption of electric heat pumps), and climate change. We use a predictive model of electricity demand, climate projections, and an open source nodal power system (DC Optimal Power Flow) model of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Heat pumps are a more energy efficient way of providing space heating and cooling in homes. We attempt to exhaustively investigate the impacts of full residential space heating electrification by adoption of heat pumps for the segment of Texas households that currently rely on fossil fuels (about 40%), while simultaneously incorporating climate change meteorological variables. We explore a range of scenarios of heat pump efficiency and climate uncertainty over a long period of future years (2020-2099). In total, the simulation experiment generates 1,280 simulation years of hourly data. We report and analyze results in form of impacts on residential load, total load, peak load, seasonality of peaking, and reliability measured by occurrence and frequency of loss of load events. While the experiment is for ERCOT, the insights and approach can be applied to other regions. The results from the analysis can inform system planners on a range of potential capacity requirements/ reliability implications and/or risks of full space heating electrification via the adoption of electric heat pumps, given the uncertainty in the scenarios/ climate futures. The dataset includes model output for residential, non residential and total load, and the results from the GO ERCOT model runs for 4 RCP Scenarios (RCP 4.5 Cooler, RCP 4.5 Hotter, RCP 8.5 Cooler, RCP 8.5 Hotter), 4 Heating electrification Scenarios (Base , Standard Efficiency HP, High Efficiency HP, Ultra-High Efficiency HP) over 80 years (2020-2099). The metrological variables at BA scale were weighted weighted using population projections consistent with the SSP3 scenario.

Climate Change↗

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for Low-Temperature Resources in the Denver Basin

This dataset is part of an effort to highlight the advantages of incorporating low-temperature (< 150 C) geothermal resource evaluation into the implementation of combined heat and power (CHP), and geothermal direct use (GDU) technologies (e.g., space heating and/or cooling). For this Denver Basin example, resource favorability maps were created to identify potentially favorable areas for further geothermal exploration and are provided here. Favorability was based on three types of data: (1) geologic, (2) economic, and (3) risk. This raw data is also provided below. Geologic data include bottom-hole temperatures (BHT) from oil and gas wells, water co-production volumes from oil and gas wells, well groundwater levels, hot spring locations, temperatures, and chemistries, faults, and earthquakes. Economic feasibility data include population, thermal energy demand, infrastructure, and roads. Risk data (which includes data on excluded areas) include flood plains, protected lands (e.g. wildlife conservation areas, national parks). The included report describes this project in detail, covering workflows, relevant datasets, Python code, and both common and composite maps used to create low-temperature geothermal resource favorability maps for the Denver Basin, which extends across Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming. The figures in this report include: maps of the original datasets; maps of transformed data and derived parameters (such as the geothermal gradient or thermal conductivity); results of uncertainty analyses; results of data completeness (using the GeoRePORT tool); examples of the data combination and processing (using the geoPFA Python library, which is introduced in the attached report); favorability maps for each criteria; and a final combined favorability map. This project is designed to facilitate future deployment of CHP and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources in sedimentary basins.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage

Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however, uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost, including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel, multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue, which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. Using real community load, resource, and generation data, we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation, considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs, but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase, but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue, we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability, sustainability, and security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Mechanisms of woody-plant mortality under rising drought, CO 2 and vapour pressure deficit

Drought-associated woody plant mortality may have increased over the past several decades, and is projected to increase in the future, impacting terrestrial climate forcing, biodiversity, and resource availability. The mechanisms underlying such mortality, however, are debated owing to interactions between multiple drivers and mechanisms. In this work, we synthesize knowledge of drought-related tree mortality under a warming and drying atmosphere with rising atmospheric CO 2 . Drought-associated mortality results from the depletion of pools of water and carbon within a plant and declines in their fluxes relative to demand by living tissues. These pools and fluxes are interdependent and underlay plant defenses against biotic agents. Death via failure to maintain a positive water balance is particularly dependent on soil-to-root conductance, capacitance, vulnerability to hydraulic failure, cuticular water losses, and dehydration tolerance, all of which could be exacerbated by reduced carbon supply rates to support cellular survival e.g. the carbon starvation process. The depletion of plant water and carbon pools accelerates under rising vapor pressure deficit; however, increasing CO 2 can mitigate these impacts. Advancing knowledge and reducing predictive uncertainties requires studies that integrate carbon, water, and defensive processes, and utilize a range of experimental and modeling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stakeholder-driven carbon neutral pathways for Thailand and Bangkok: integrated assessment modeling to inform multilevel climate governance

Thailand has established a target of carbon neutrality by 2050. Reaching this goal will require coordination and collaboration between stakeholders spanning sectors and scales, including energy system decision makers, land managers, and city planners. Robust decarbonization scenarios incorporating current plans and targets, additional measures needed, and trade-offs between strategies can help stakeholders make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. Through iterative engagement with decision makers at the city and national levels, we develop and analyze carbon neutral scenarios for Thailand that incorporate Bangkok’s role using a global integrated assessment model. We find that Thailand can reach carbon neutrality through power sector decarbonization, energy efficiency improvements, widespread electrification, and advanced technologies including carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. Negative emissions technologies will also be needed to offset Thailand and Bangkok’s hardest-to-abate CO 2 emissions. Bangkok, as a major population and economic center, contributes significantly to Thailand’s energy demand and emissions and can therefore play an important role in climate change mitigation. Accordingly, our results underscore the importance of subnational climate action in meeting Thailand’s carbon neutral goal. Our analysis also indicates that without sustained land-based carbon sequestration, much more mitigation effort will be needed in Thailand’s energy sector, including at the subnational scale, to reach carbon neutrality. These insights can help stakeholders identify priorities, consider tradeoffs, and make decisions that will impact Bangkok and Thailand’s long-term climate change mitigation potential. This analysis demonstrates how stakeholder engagement in integrated assessment modeling can facilitate and inform multilevel climate governance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimizing Solar PV Deployment in Manufacturing: A Morphological Matrix and Fuzzy TOPSIS Approach

The growing energy demand of the industrial sector and the need for sustainable solutions highlight the importance of efficient decision making in solar photovoltaic (PV) implementation. Selecting optimal PV configuration is complex due to the interdependent technical, economic, environmental, and social factors involved. This study introduces an integrated decision-making method combining a morphological matrix and fuzzy TOPSIS to systematically select and rank optimal PV system configurations for manufacturing firms. While the morphological matrix exhaustively examines possible design solutions based on sensing, smart, sustainable, and social (S4) attributes, the fuzzy TOPSIS method ranks the alternatives by handling uncertainty in decision making. A case study conducted in a Mexican manufacturing company validates the methodology’s effectiveness. The optimal PV configuration identified comprehensively addresses operational and sustainability criteria, covering all lifecycle stages. This approach demonstrates quantitative superiority and greater robustness compared to existing fuzzy TOPSIS-based methods for solar PV applications. The findings highlight the practical value of data-driven, multi-criteria decision making for industrial solar energy adoption, enhancing project feasibility, cost efficiency, and environmental compliance. Future research will incorporate discrete event simulation (DES) to further refine energy consumption strategies in manufacturing.

Briceño, Citlaly Pérez↗

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detecting the undetected: Dealing with non-routine events using advanced M&V meter-based savings approaches

In a rapidly evolving energy industry, utilities are dealing with new challenges like integrating distributed energy resources and market saturation for advanced lighting retrofits. Demand-side management programs require new approaches to meet aggressive carbon reduction goals. Advanced measurement & verification (M&V) is an energy data analysis method using smart meter data in combination with analytics to quantify energy efficiency project savings. Advanced M&V shows great promise for supporting next generation commercial programs including retro commissioning, multi-measure retrofits, and behavior change programs. Advanced M&V captures real project impacts at the meter, but sometimes non-project events can also impact consumption (so-called “non-routine events” [NREs]). Accurately detecting and accounting for NREs is important for reducing uncertainty of savings estimates and helps manage investment risk for different stakeholders (e.g., utilities, building owners, ESCOs). Recent research has shown promise in establishing data-driven techniques to identify and adjust for NREs, but fundamental questions still remain, such as: how can you distinguish NREs from acceptable noise in energy consumption profiles? What is the frequency and magnitude of NREs? Can their detection and adjustment be automated and streamlined? This paper documents the state of the art in NRE quantification and analysis. The results of research to quantify the frequency, nature and direction of NREs, and methods and metrics for determining a trigger threshold for taking action on NREs are presented. The paper also documents the latest technical guidance on application of NRE detection and adjustment methods.

Fernandes, Samuel↗

A Scalable Hardware-and-Human-in-the-Loop Grid-interactive Efficient Building Equipment Performance Dataset

This project developed a publicly available, high-fidelity dataset about the interactions among humans, homes, and heat pumps supporting grid interactive efficient buildings to balance demand on the grid with comfort for occupants. Laboratory measurements and simulations of the hardware capture the second-scale electric power dynamics of heat pumps providing grid services like load shifting and load shedding. Field measurements, behavior tracking, and qualitative surveys of people in their homes over multiple years—including experimentally adjusting the heating and cooling system to provide grid services—to capture the reciprocal effect of human behavior on grid services, and grid services on human comfort. Taken together, these data capture the complete Hardware and Human in the loop system for residential heat pumps, reducing large uncertainties in simulation for design, and models for control of heat pumps, and grid-interactive buildings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electrolyzer and Fuel Cell Recycling for a Circular Hydrogen Economy

Abstract Electrolyzers and fuel cells will be crucial for achieving global clean hydrogen and industrial decarbonization goals. However, the nascent clean hydrogen sector faces uncertainties around material supply chains and technology end‐of‐life management. This work aims to guide the transition to a circular hydrogen economy by using process modeling, techno‐economic analysis, and life cycle assessment to evaluate the material cost, energy use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, toxicity, and water use of five potential recycling strategies for proton exchange membrane electrolyzers (PEMWE) and fuel cells (PEMFC). Hydrometallurgy, acid dissolution, and electrochemical dissolution are shown to offer 2–7 times improvement across all assessed metrics relative to the manufacturing of PEMWE and PEMFC from raw materials. Recycling can also lower the raw material demand, material cost, energy use, and GHG emissions associated with PEMWE and PEMFC deployment in the United States in 2050 by 23%, 19%, 21%, and 16%, respectively. This study provides key insights into the costs, benefits, and complexities of recycling strategies for PEMWE and PEMFC, aiding the development of a circular economy that is synergistic with clean hydrogen deployment.

08 HYDROGEN↗

ADC Nonlinearity Correction for the Majorana Demonstrator

Imperfections in analog-to-digital conversion cannot be ignored when signal digitization requirements demand both wide dynamic range and high resolution, as is the case for the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR 76 Ge neutrinoless double beta decay search. Enabling the experiment's high-resolution spectral analysis and efficient pulse shape discrimination required careful measurement and correction of ADC nonlinearites. Here, a simple measurement protocol was developed that did not require sophisticated equipment or lengthy data taking campaigns. A slope-dependent hysteresis was observed and characterized. A correction applied to digitized waveforms prior to signal processing reduced the differential and integral nonlinearites by an order of magnitude, eliminating these as dominant contributions to the systematic energy uncertainty at the double-beta decay Q value.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Genetic algorithm optimization of a chemical kinetic mechanism for propane at engine relevant conditions

Propane has demonstrated significant potential for reductions in greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions in medium- and heavy-duty engine applications, but further improvements require accurate, compact, and scalable chemical kinetic mechanisms to design the next generation of propane fueled engines, particularly at the boosted operating conditions necessary to meet the power density demand of medium- and heavy-duty applications. In this work, six key chemical reactions were identified in a reduced mechanism with 70 species and 352 reactions through a sensitivity analysis performed at conditions typical of thermodynamic trajectories observed in a high compression ratio, long stroke engine operated on propane from throttled to boosted operating conditions. While the original mechanism was validated against rapid compression machine (RCM) data, it was found to overpredict experimental autoignition tendencies in 2-zone, 0-D SI engine simulations performed in Chemkin Pro. Subsequently, a genetic algorithm approach was used to optimize the six reaction rate parameters within established uncertainty bounds by performing RCM simulations and comparing to two independent sets of literature ignition delay times for propane, thus generating two new kinetic mechanisms. The first optimization achieved a mean absolute percent error (MPE) reduction in 2nd stage ignition delay of 61.4% in seven generations, while the second optimization utilized a newer experimental RCM dataset, and achieved MPE reduction of 56.7% in seven generations, and further marginal improvement to 57.8% reduction in 34 generations. Finally, the two mechanisms were then evaluated again in the 2-zone 0-D SI engine model in Chemkin Pro comparing typical mean and knocking cycle trajectories, and it was found that the second optimized mechanism provided better prediction of knock onset at the representative conditions evaluated in this work, particularly for higher load operating conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Who Controls Energy in the Smart Home? A Multidisciplinary Taxonomy

Advances in technology have begun to open new opportunities for behavior-based and technical approaches to managing residential energy use and meet sustainability-related objectives. Visions of the future predict homes with smart technologies delivering enhanced comfort and cost savings to residents; utility-partners who can remotely optimize energy resources to meet grid needs; and occupants who play more active roles in the energy system supported by advanced information communication technologies. Each of these scenarios implies augmented control over home energy use, yet uncertainties remain regarding which ones will deliver the greatest grid benefits and services to customers in a given situation. These scenarios also raise broader questions regarding customer agency and the relationship between customers and third parties moving forward. While both the provision of information to spur behavior change and automated technologies theoretically enhance control over energy use in the built environment, these strategies are not often studied from an integrated perspective. Seeking to address this gap and develop a deeper understanding of the evolving paradigm of control over home energy use, this paper presents a taxonomy to evaluate perspectives from public policy (ex. demand-side management), technological innovation (automated controls), and user-agency (ex. the role of behavior change) on approaches to managing home energy use. We draw on theoretical and empirical evidence from across disciplines to detail the dimensions and implications of deploying programs that incorporate various levels of control and anticipate such a taxonomy will help holistically map out and evaluate tradeoffs between different approaches to demand-side management moving forward.

McIlvennie, Claire↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Catalytic Upgrading of Pyrolysis Vapors 2.3.1.314

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) is a versatile pathway for the direct liquefaction of biomass and waste carbon sources to generate a stabilized bio-oil intermediate that can be further processed into renewable fuels, chemicals, and materials. The objective of this project is advance the CFP state-of-technology through integrated catalyst and process development, expand market responsiveness by creating routes to novel co-products, and provide experimental data to inform process modelling and scale-up activities. Research advancements over the past two years include reducing analytical uncertainty by achieving 100 ± 1% carbon balances during reaction testing with woody biomass, improving process efficiency by achieving a 4x increase in catalyst cycle length, demonstrating compatibility with waste feedstocks, and confirming process durability for 100+ reaction cycles. Additionally, this project supported a comprehensive pathway review to evaluate scale-up needs. This review resulted in the early identification of technical risks and informed proactive planning for the BETO 2022 Verification. Other impacts from this project include generation of broadly enabling scientific knowledge (14 publications/18 presentations since 2019), engagement with industry partners (e.g., Johnson Matthey and ExxonMobil), and identification of a promising pathway to market that addresses emerging demands for biogenic refinery feedstocks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Thermal Effects on Far-Field Distributed Acoustic Strain-Rate Sensors

Summary Fiber-optic cables cemented outside of the casing of an unconventional well measure crosswell strain changes during fracturing of neighboring wells with low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS). As a hydraulic fracture intersects an observation well instrumented with fiber-optic cables, the fracture fluid injected at ambient temperatures can cool a section of the sensing fiber. Often, LF-DAS and distributed temperature sensing (DTS) cables are run in tandem, enabling the detection of such cooling events. The increasing use of LF-DAS for characterizing unconventional hydraulic fracture completions demands an investigation of the effects of temperature on the measured strain response by LF-DAS. Researchers have demonstrated that LF-DAS can be used to extract the temporal derivative of temperature for use as a differential-temperature-gradient sensor. However, differential-temperature-gradient sensing is predicated on the ability to filter strain components out of the optical signal. In this work, beginning with an equation for optical phase shift of LF-DAS signals, a model relating strain, temperature, and optical phase shift is explicitly developed. The formula provides insights into the relative strength of strain and temperature effects on the phase shift. The uncertainty in the strain-rate measurements due to thermal effects is estimated. The relationship can also be used to quantify uncertainties in differential-temperature-gradient sensors due to strain perturbations. Additionally, a workflow is presented to simulate the LF-DAS response accounting for both strain and temperature effects. Hydraulic fracture geometries are generated with a 3D fracture simulator for a multistage unconventional completion. The fracture width distributions are imported by a displacement discontinuity method (DDM) program to compute the strain rates along an observation well. An analytic model is used to approximate the temperature in the fracture. Using the derived formulae for optical phase shift, the model outputs are then used to compute the LF-DAS response at a fiber-optic cable, enabling the generation of waterfall plots including both strain and thermal effects. The model results suggest that before, during, and immediately following a fracture intersecting a well instrumented with fiber, the strain on the fiber drives the LF-DAS signal. However, at later times, as completion fluid cools the observation well, the temperature component of the LF-DAS signal can be equal to or exceed the strain component. The modeled results are compared to a published field case in an attempt to enhance the interpretation of LF-DAS waterfall plots. Finally, we propose a sensing configuration to identify the events when “wet fractures” (fractures with fluids) intersect the observation well.

Engineering↗

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty [Brochure]

The four priority research directions outlined in this brochure represent a cohesive vision for advancing the science of inverse problems for complex systems under uncertainty. Together, they address the critical challenges of: discovering, exploiting, and preserving physical and problem structure; overcoming model limitations; integrating disparate, multimodal, and/or dynamic data; and tailoring the solution of inverse problems to downstream tasks. While each PRD focuses on a distinct aspect of inverse-problem research, their interconnected nature highlights the importance of a holistic approach that leverages progress across all areas to achieve transformative solutions. This agenda calls for research across mathematics, statistics, and computer science disciplines, which are guided and complemented by rapid advances in artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and experimental facilities, to unlock new capabilities, maximize scientific impact, and meet the growing demands of inverse problems that arise across applications that are critical to DOE's mission.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scenario Discovery Analysis of Drivers of Solar and Wind Energy Transitions Through 2050

Deep human-Earth system uncertainties and strong multi-sector dynamics make it difficult to anticipate which conditions are most likely to lead to higher or lower adoption of renewable energy, and models project a broad range of future solar and wind energy shares across future scenarios. To elucidate these dynamics, we explore a large data set of scenarios simulated from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and use scenario discovery to identify the most significant factors affecting solar and wind adoption by mid-century. We generated a data set of over 4,000 scenarios from GCAM by varying 12 different socioeconomic factors at high and low levels, including assumptions about future energy demand, resource costs, and fossil fuel emissions paths, as well as specific technology assumptions including wind and solar backup requirements and storage costs. Using scenario discovery, we assess the most important factors globally and regionally in creating high fractions of solar and wind energy and explore interconnected effects on other systems including water and non-CO 2 emissions. Globally and regionally, we found that solar and wind-related technology costs were the primary drivers of high wind and solar energy adoption, though a few regions depend heavily on other parameters like carbon capture and storage costs, population and gross domestic product trajectories, and fossil fuel costs. We also identify four key paths to high solar and wind energy by mid-century and discuss their tradeoffs in terms of other outcomes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗