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At least 379 records · Page 21

nautilus : boosting Bayesian importance nested sampling with deep learning

ABSTRACT We introduce a novel approach to boost the efficiency of the importance nested sampling (INS) technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation using deep learning. Unlike rejection-based sampling methods such as vanilla nested sampling (NS) or Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, importance sampling techniques can use all likelihood evaluations for posterior and evidence estimation. However, for efficient importance sampling, one needs proposal distributions that closely mimic the posterior distributions. We show how to combine INS with deep learning via neural network regression to accomplish this task. We also introduce nautilus, a reference open-source python implementation of this technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation. We compare nautilus against popular NS and MCMC packages, including emcee, dynesty, ultranest, and pocomc, on a variety of challenging synthetic problems and real-world applications in exoplanet detection, galaxy SED fitting and cosmology. In all applications, the sampling efficiency of nautilus is substantially higher than that of all other samplers, often by more than an order of magnitude. Simultaneously, nautilus delivers highly accurate results and needs fewer likelihood evaluations than all other samplers tested. We also show that nautilus has good scaling with the dimensionality of the likelihood and is easily parallelizable to many CPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗

Deep learning surrogate model for kinetic Landau-fluid closure with collision

In this work, the kinetic Landau-fluid (LF) closure with collision and periodic boundary condition is used in the development of the deep learning (DL) surrogate model. A classical neural network, namely, feedforward neural network or sometimes termed multilayer perceptron, is constructed and trained to learn the kinetic LF closure in the static limit and arbitrary mean free path in configuration space. The preliminary relation between best hyperparameters and critical parameters for data generation is found. Compared with the numerical approach (non-Fourier method) of the LF closure, the deep learning surrogate model shows an order of magnitude of improvement in terms of accuracy. Perhaps most importantly, the surrogate model closure has been integrated for the first time with fluid simulations. Our DL-enabled fluid simulations, for the first time, give the correct Landau damping rate for a wide range of wave vectors, while the Hammett–Perkins closure cannot produce the correct damping rate. We correctly connect the collisionless Hammett–Perkins closure and collisional Braginskii closure to reproduce the intrinsic nonlocal feature of the heat flux with DL techniques. We address the most concerning error accumulation problem and find that simulations with the deep learning surrogate model are as good as, if not better than, simulations with the analytic closure in terms of long-term numerical stability in the linear Landau damping test.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deep learning to estimate permeability using geophysical data

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a popular geophysical method to estimate three-dimensional (3D) permeability fields from electrical potential difference measurements. Traditional inversion and data assimilation methods are used to ingest this ERT data into hydrogeophysical models to estimate permeability. Due to ill-posedness and the curse of dimensionality, existing inversion strategies provide poor estimates and low resolution of the 3D permeability field. Recent advances in deep learning provide us with powerful algorithms to overcome this challenge. This paper presents a deep learning (DL) framework to estimate the 3D subsurface permeability from time-lapse ERT data. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework, we train DL-enabled inverse models on simulation data. Each measurement in both synthetic and field data is standardized by removing the mean and scaling the time-series to unit variance. This pre-processing step is necessary to bring simulation data closer to field observations. Subsurface process models based on hydrogeophysics are used to generate this synthetic data. Training performed on limited simulation data resulted in the DL model over-fitting. An advanced data augmentation based on mixup is implemented to generate additional training samples to overcome this issue. This mixup technique creates weakly labeled (low-fidelity) samples from strongly labeled (high-fidelity) data. The weakly labeled training data is then used to develop DL-enabled inverse models and reduce over-fitting. As both time-lapse ERT (1133048 features/realization) and 3D permeability (585453 features/realization) data samples are from a high-dimensional space, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to reduce dimensionality. Encoded ERT and encoded permeability are generated using the trained PCA estimators. A deep neural network is then trained to map the encoded ERT to encoded permeability. This mixup training and unsupervised learning allowed us to build a fast and reasonably accurate DL-based inverse model under limited simulation data. Results show that proposed weak supervised learning can capture salient spatial features in the 3D permeability field. Quantitatively, the average mean squared error (in terms of the natural log) on the strongly labeled training, validation, and test datasets is less than 0.5. The R 2 -score (global metric) is greater than 0.75, and the percent error in each cell (local metric) is less than 10%. Finally, an added benefit in terms of computational cost is that the proposed DL-based inverse model is at least O(10 4 ) times faster than running a forward model once it is trained. Data generation, DL model training, and hyperparameter tuning to identify optimal neural network architectures utilized high-performance computing resources while the DL inference is performed on a standard laptop. Approximately, O(10 5 ) processor hours are used for generating data and DL tuning and training. We acknowledge that the data generation and DL model development are expensive. But once a DL model is trained, it can be re-used for inversion rapidly for the given system, with set physics and domain. Note that traditional inversion may require multiple forward model simulations (e.g., in the order of 10 to 1000), which are very expensive. This computational savings ≈ O(10 5 ) – O(10 7 )) makes the proposed DL-based inverse model attractive for subsurface imaging and real-time ERT monitoring applications due to fast and yet reasonably accurate estimations of permeability field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep Learning Super-Resolution X-Ray Computed Tomography Algorithms for Additive Manufacturing

Industrial X-ray computed tomography (XCT) is a nondestructive method for inspection and characterization of additively manufactured (AM) materials and parts. In practice, the resolution of XCT can be limited by factors such as detector binning, restricted field of view for large-scale objects, system blur, motion during scanning, and acquisition settings. These limitations can reduce the detectability of critical flaws such as pores, cracks, and lack of fusion. Super-resolution (SR) techniques offer a promising solution for improving the effective resolution and image quality of XCT reconstructions without the need for expensive hardware upgrades or laborious, time-consuming scans. In particular, deep learning-based SR methods have garnered attention in recent years as powerful tools for reconstructing high-resolution volumes from low-resolution inputs. In this work, a novel deep learning-based SR method is proposed for XCT scans of AM parts, and compared against several existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. The proposed method, Simurgh-SR, is built on the pre-existing Simurgh framework and consists of a 2.5D U-Net trained to map low-quality inputs containing noise and artifacts to high-quality reconstructions characterized by higher flaw contrast, better noise texture, and reduced artifacts. The experimental results demonstrate superior performance of Simurgh-SR in performing 4× SR on real industrial XCT scans of thick 316L components, enhancing the structural similarity score and peak signal-to-noise ratio (>7dB) compared to the LR counterpart while improving the F1-score for flaw detection by more than 2.3× when compared to alternative SOTA SR methods. This improvement enables more accurate and significantly faster characterization of metal AM components. Additionally, Simurgh-SR was trained for both 2X and 4X SR and performs effectively at both levels, enabling the use of a single model for various SR factors.

Rahman, Obaid [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000277810840)↗

The Impact of Time-Aware Design Choices in ICS Anomaly Detection

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and na¨ıve imputation— prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensordecomposition– based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Non-Intrusive Appliance Identification with Appliance-Specific Networks

The problem of noninstrusive load monitoring (NILM) is usually formulated as a single-channel blind source separation task, whose successful solution enable fast and convenient load identification and energy disaggregation. When applied at test time, NILM algorithms aim to identify the operating characteristics of individual appliances from an aggregate power measurement of the entire house. Recent advances in deep learning gave rise to many methods that mostly focus on learning a direct mapping from aggregate measurement to individual appliance power. However, these methods are not only computationally expensive, but they often suffer from overfitting and do not generalize very well. In this article, we propose a novel NILM method that leverages advances in statistical learning that have not been properly applied in this domain before. The proposed method consists of three stages: first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning-based approach for appliance state extraction; second, synthetic minority oversampling technique for data augmentation and mitigating the heavy imbalance in switching events; and third, appliance-specific lightweight long short-term memory networks for status classification for each appliance. Here, we adopt a “differential” input (the difference before and after the switching event) to reduce the complexity of network training and make the proposed method robust to multiappliance switching events. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving superior performance when compared to recent methods. An ablation study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of each module of our method. Finally, we investigate the quality of generated synthetic samples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Robust deep learning–based protein sequence design using ProteinMPNN

Although deep learning has revolutionized protein structure prediction, almost all experimentally characterized de novo protein designs have been generated using physically based approaches such as Rosetta. Here, we describe a deep learning–based protein sequence design method, ProteinMPNN, that has outstanding performance in both in silico and experimental tests. On native protein backbones, ProteinMPNN has a sequence recovery of 52.4% compared with 32.9% for Rosetta. The amino acid sequence at different positions can be coupled between single or multiple chains, enabling application to a wide range of current protein design challenges. We demonstrate the broad utility and high accuracy of ProteinMPNN using x-ray crystallography, cryo–electron microscopy, and functional studies by rescuing previously failed designs, which were made using Rosetta or AlphaFold, of protein monomers, cyclic homo-oligomers, tetrahedral nanoparticles, and target-binding proteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Self-Evolution Data Fusion Platform for Large-Scale Water Models

Focal Area: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (deep learning), leveraging advanced hardware (e.g., edge computing). This development is to enable solving the science questions regarding the human and climatic factors that interact with and drive global water scarcity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Securing Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) through Cyber Defense and Resilient System (CYDRES)

The DOE CYDRES project is driven by the urgent need to address critical research gaps in the domain of cyber-physical security of smart buildings, including Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEBs). CYDRES, a real-time advanced building resilient platform, aims to enhance the cyber-attack-immune capabilities of buildings through multi-layered prevention, detection, and adaptation mechanisms. CYDRES consists of five key modules: a multi-layer network analyzer, an Automatic Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (AFDDP) framework, an intelligent mode selector, a cyber-resilient control framework, and a situation awareness platform. The Network Analyzer employs a data-driven framework that includes a protocol state learning tool and a CRF (Conditional Random Field) command validator. In Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) testbeds, it achieved 100% detection accuracy with a false alarm rate of 3%, validating its efficacy in identifying selected cyber-attacks. The AFDDP framework leverages pattern matching, PCA (Principal Component Analysis)-based strategies, and a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network)-based fault diagnosis approach to pinpoint the causes of physical system abnormalities using Building Automation System (BAS) data. In HIL experiments, the AFDDP module attained a detection accuracy of over 95% with a false alarm rate below 7%. Additionally, the fault detector utilized machine learning (Random Forest) and deep learning (Multi-Layer Perceptron) methods with acoustic sensor data to achieve a 100% fault detection accuracy in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The Mode Selector offered real-time impact analysis, allowing immediate actions to protect BASs in the face of emerging threats. The cyber-resilient control framework included an adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a measurement compensator, reducing temperature violations by up to 94% and improving the total demand flexibility by up to 70% in HIL experiments. Such HIL experiments covered a cyber-attack case and a physical fault case, showcasing CYDRES’ efficiency in maintaining operational continuity during threats. The situation awareness platform in Grafana enhanced real-time threat detection and response visualization, augmenting the operational awareness for building operators. CYDRES demonstrated high technical effectiveness in various test scenarios, particularly in HIL environments. The project's phased development approach ensured efficient use of resources, highlighting its practical feasibility and readiness for commercialization. By enhancing the security and resilience of building operations, CYDRES represents a significant advance in mitigating risks associated with cyber-physical systems, thereby enhancing public confidence in the safety of modern building infrastructure. Future directions for the project include expanding testing protocols, refining AFDDP methodologies, exploring more comprehensive resilient control strategies, and testing in real commercial buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Segmentation method comparison for residual fiber length measurement across tiled microscopy images

Fiber length distribution (FLD), in part, governs mechanical properties in discontinuous fiber composites, yet manual measurement methods limit the high-throughput characterization needed for materials design optimization. This study compares deep learning segmentation approaches for automated FLD measurement in large-field microscopy, evaluating how method choice affects the microstructural descriptors used in structure-property-processing relationships. A critical challenge is that high-resolution microscopy images (10,000×10,000 pixels) must be tiled for deep learning analysis, fragmenting fibers at boundaries. We demonstrate that segmentation method proves crucial for measurement accuracy. For example, instance segmentation with Slicing Aided Hyper Inference (SAHI) preserves individual fiber integrity across tiles while semantic segmentation prioritizes speed. Comparing against manual measurement of extracted carbon fibers, YOLOv11-SAHI matched manual ground truth (238 μm weighted mean) with 40x speedup (4.5 vs 167 minutes per image). U-Net provides rapid quantification although it is at the cost of reduced accuracy due only reliably measuring stand-alone fibers. Our comparative analysis reveals that instance segmentation with SAHI better preserves length measurements while semantic segmentation prioritizes speed, providing empirical guidance for method selection. The characterization provides essential inputs for mechanical property prediction models and inverse design workflows, accelerating composite materials development cycles.

Additive manufacturing↗

The Artificial Intelligence Ontology: LLM-Assisted Construction of AI Concept Hierarchies

The Artificial Intelligence Ontology (AIO) is a systematization of artificial intelligence (AI) concepts, methodologies, and their interrelations. Developed via manual curation, with the additional assistance of large language models (LLMs), AIO aims to address the rapidly evolving landscape of AI by providing a comprehensive framework that encompasses both technical and ethical aspects of AI technologies. The primary audience for AIO includes AI researchers, developers, and educators seeking standardized terminology and concepts within the AI domain. We use the term “branches” for classes, and their subclasses, in our ontology that are subclasses of owl:Thing. AIO contains eight branches: Bias, Layer, Machine Learning Task, Mathematical Function, Model, Network, Preprocessing, and Training Strategy, each designed to support the modular composition of AI methods and facilitate a deeper understanding of deep learning architectures and ethical considerations in AI. AIO uses the Ontology Development Kit (ODK) for its creation and maintenance, with its content being more easily updated through AI-driven curation support. This approach not only ensures the ontology's relevance amidst the fast-paced advancements in AI but also significantly enhances its utility for researchers, developers, and educators by simplifying the integration of new AI concepts and methodologies. The ontology's utility is demonstrated through the annotation of AI methods data in a catalog of AI research publications and the integration into the BioPortal ontology resource, highlighting its potential for cross-disciplinary research. The AIO ontology is open source and is available on GitHub ( https://w3id.org/aio/ ) and BioPortal ( https://bioportal.bioontology.org/ontologies/AIO ).

Joachimiak, Marcin P. [Biosystems Data Science Dep↗

Synthetic Infrasound Data for Machine Learning Detectors

Synthetic data is a powerful tool to generate large amounts of training data for machine learning models. The methods outlined in this report will be used to retrain the deep learning classifier for increased accuracy. Synthetic data will be useful to address the natural class imbalance between the different categories in the original ML work. Additionally, these tools will be applied for a variety of signal analysis methods that would use signals with a known signal-to-noise ratio for validation and testing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Large-Scale Classification of Urban Structural Units From Remote Sensing Imagery

Remote sensing in combination with deep learning has become instrumental for efficiently and accurately classifying land-use and land-cover across large geographic areas. These technologies have also been successful in characterizing urban environments in terms of their structural units, structure types, or morphological regions. In these approaches, an urban area is partitioned into regions that exhibit homogeneous physical characteristics. However, existing approaches are typically limited to a single city, use inconsistent typologies, and lack scalability and generalization capacity. In this article, we propose an urban structural units categorization scheme and demonstrate its utility by applying it to 13 cities. Inspired by the lack of scalability and generalization capacity in urban structural units mapping, we extend the reach of deep learning and conduct a set of classification experiments in all 13 cities. These experiments offer insights into the strengths and limitations of deep neural networks for classifying urban structural units over diverse geographic regions and on heterogeneous collections of satellite imagery. The efficacy of the proposed deep learning approach is compared to a baseline method of multiscale image features and support vector machines. Our validation on five cities shows that better performance is achieved with deep neural networks. Additionally, we evaluate the impact of input size, model depth, and spatial pyramid pooling to assess the generalization capacity of deep neural networks.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Volt-VAR Optimization in Smart Distribution Systems

This paper develops a model-free volt-VAR optimization (VVO) algorithm via multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in unbalanced distribution systems. This method is novel since we cast the VVO problem in distribution networks to an intelligent deep Q-network (DQN) framework, which avoids solving a specific optimization model directly when facing time-varying operating conditions in the systems. We consider statuses/ratios of switchable capacitors, voltage regulators, and smart inverters installed at distributed generators as the action variables of the agents. A delicately designed reward function guides these agents to interact with the distribution system, in the direction of reinforcing voltage regulation and power loss reduction simultaneously. The forward-backward sweep method for radial three-phase distribution systems provides accurate power flow results within a few iterations to the DRL environment. The proposed method realizes the dual goals for VVO. We test this algorithm on the unbalanced IEEE 13-bus and 123-bus systems. Numerical simulations validate the excellent performance of this method in voltage regulation and power loss reduction.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Leveraging interpolation models and error bounds for verifiable scientific machine learning

Effective verification and validation techniques for modern scientific machine learning workflows are challenging to devise. Statistical methods are abundant and easily deployed, but often rely on speculative assumptions about the data and methods involved. Error bounds for classical interpolation techniques can provide mathematically rigorous estimates of accuracy, but often are difficult or impractical to determine computationally. Here, in this work, we present a best-of-both-worlds approach to verifiable scientific machine learning by demonstrating that (1) multiple standard interpolation techniques have informative error bounds that can be computed or estimated efficiently; (2) comparative performance among distinct interpolants can aid in validation goals; (3) deploying interpolation methods on latent spaces generated by deep learning techniques enables some interpretability for black-box models. We present a detailed case study of our approach for predicting lift-drag ratios from airfoil images. Code developed for this work is available in a public Github repository.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Contrasting Time-Frequency Representations for Unknown Waveform Detection

Identifying unseen electromagnetic waveforms is critical for many applications, like interference management, electronic warfare and spectrum management. Traditionally this is done using statistical methods for anomaly detection, which has evolved to deep learning models for identifying the unseen data, formally termed as open set recognition. Some prior methods use a generative model to emulate open set data, which face challenges in generating synthetic samples for open set while simultaneously selecting an optimal discriminator for accurate classification. To alleviate this issue, we propose a discriminative model that effectively combines time and frequency domain features of communication signals for accurate predictions. We further introduce a cosine similarity loss that makes the domain specific features unique to enhance the prediction rate. Additionally, our model avoids generic feature vectors by extracting class-specific features during training, resulting in improved class representation. The experiment results show that this combined feature approach with cosine loss outperforms single-domain models and improves accuracy by 10% over models without cosine loss.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗