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NASA NTRS2017

Gravity-Assist Trajectories to the Ice Giants: An Automated Method to Catalog Mass- Or Time-Optimal Solutions

This work presents an automated method of calculating mass (or time) optimal gravity-assist trajectories without a priori knowledge of the flyby-body combination. Since gravity assists are particularly crucial for reaching the outer Solar System, we use the Ice Giants, Uranus and Neptune, as example destinations for this work. Catalogs are also provided that list the most attractive trajectories found over launch dates ranging from 2024 to 2038. The tool developed to implement this method, called the Python EMTG Automated Trade Study Application (PEATSA), iteratively runs the Evolutionary Mission Trajectory Generator (EMTG), a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in-house trajectory optimization tool. EMTG finds gravity-assist trajectories with impulsive maneuvers using a multiple-shooting structure along with stochastic methods (such as monotonic basin hopping) and may be run with or without an initial guess provided. PEATSA runs instances of EMTG in parallel over a grid of launch dates. After each set of runs completes, the best results within a neighborhood of launch dates are used to seed all other cases in that neighborhood-allowing the solutions across the range of launch dates to improve over each iteration. The results here are compared against trajectories found using a grid-search technique, and PEATSA is found to outperform the grid-search results for most launch years considered.

Hughes, Kyle M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Gravity-Assist Trajectories to the Ice Giants: An Automated Method to Catalog Mass-or Time-Optimal Solutions

This work presents an automated method of calculating mass (or time) optimal gravity-assist trajectories without a priori knowledge of the flyby-body combination. Since gravity assists are particularly crucial for reaching the outer Solar System, we use the Ice Giants, Uranus and Neptune, as example destinations for this work. Catalogs are also provided that list the most attractive trajectories found over launch dates ranging from 2024 to 2038. The tool developed to implement this method, called the Python EMTG Automated Trade Study Application (PEATSA), iteratively runs the Evolutionary Mission Trajectory Generator (EMTG), a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in-house trajectory optimization tool. EMTG finds gravity-assist trajectories with impulsive maneuvers using a multiple-shooting structure along with stochastic methods (such as monotonic basin hopping) and may be run with or without an initial guess provided. PEATSA runs instances of EMTG in parallel over a grid of launch dates. After each set of runs completes, the best results within a neighborhood of launch dates are used to seed all other cases in that neighborhood---allowing the solutions across the range of launch dates to improve over each iteration. The results here are compared against trajectories found using a grid-search technique, and PEATSA is found to outperform the grid-search results for most launch years considered.

Hughes, Kyle M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Probing the Evolutionary History of Comets: an Investigation of the Hypervolatiles CO, CH4, and C2H6 in the Jupiter-Family Comet 21P/Giacobini–Zinner

Understanding the cosmogonic record encoded in the parent volatiles stored in cometary nuclei requires investigating whether evolution (thermal or otherwise) has modified the composition of short-period comets during successive perihelion passages. As the most volatile molecules systematically observed in comets, the abundances of CO, CH4, and C2H6 in short-period comets may serve to elucidate the interplay between natal conditions and post-formative evolution in setting present-day composition, yet secure measurements of CO and CH4 in Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) are especially sparse. The highly favorable 2018 apparition of JFC 21P/Giacobini–Zinner enabled a sensitive search for these "hypervolatiles" in a prototypical carbon-chain depleted comet. We observed 21P/Giacobini–Zinner with the iSHELL spectrograph at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility on four pre-perihelion dates, two dates near-perihelion, and one post-perihelion date. We obtained detections of CO, CH4, and C2H6 simultaneously with H2O on multiple dates. We present rotational temperatures, production rates, and mixing ratios. Combined with previous work, our results may indicate that the hypervolatile coma composition of 21P/Giacobini–Zinner was variable across apparitions as well as within a particular perihelion passage, yet the spread in these measurements is a relatively small fraction of the variation in each molecule from comet to comet. We discuss the implications of our measured hypervolatile content of 21P/Giacobini–Zinner for the evolution of JFCs, and place our results in the context of findings from the Rosetta mission and ground-based studies of comets.

Roth, Nathan X.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Zircon (U-TH)/He Impact Crater Thermochronometry and the Effects of Shock Microstructures on Helium Diffusion Kinetics

Accurate age determinations of hyper-velocity impact and cratering events remains difficult and often controversial, while less than half of all known impact craters are regarded as accurately and precisely dated. Besides 40Ar/39Ar and U-Pb methods, zircon (U-Th)/He dating of impactites is a burgeoning technique to date large- to medium-sized impact structures. Zircon (U-Th)/He ages can be fully reset in minutes at 1000°C, T commonly reached in and directly adjacent to impact melt domains, whereas complete resetting of zircon (U-Th)/He at <300°C, which might be encountered near the crater margins or persist in post-impact hydrothermal systems, may take >103-4 years. However, there is a critical need to test the reliability of (U-Th)/He impact dating in shock deformed zircon, and to quantify helium diffusion kinetics in well-characterized grains with a broad spectrum of shock-induced defect substructures. For this purpose, we investigated samples from two impact structures, the 66 Ma Chicxulub multi-ring basin and the 15 Ma Ries complex crater, to compare zircon diffusion kinetics from impact structures with varying parameters, including size, age, and hydrothermal system longevity. Shock microstructures were characterized by backscattered-electron (BSE) imaging prior to determination of diffusion step-heating fractional release experiments using light-bulb furnace with prograde and retrograde incrementally 10°C steps from 300°C to 600°C. We find that zircon with low-level shock microstructures exhibit no significant deviation from helium diffusion kinetics of undamaged zircon. In contrast, zircon grains with planar deformation features and granular textures classified by SEM are characterized by a dramatic decrease in helium retentivity, similar to radiation damage, due to the reduction in the effective domain size and the introduction of fast diffusion pathways. This likely renders shocked grains more susceptible to impact-induced hydrothermal resetting. Hence, characterization of impact microstructure is critical for determining accurate impact ages, but also offers the opportunity to determine the magnitude and duration of post-impact hydrothermal circulation.

Catherine Ross↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity of Optimal Midcourse Correction Scheduling for Robust Cislunar Trajectory Design

A new approach to optimal trajectory design is the determination of optimal trajectories that are robust to initial trajectory dispersions, navigation errors, maneuver execution errors, and environment modeling errors. This paper investigates the sensitivity of cislunar robust optimal trajectory design to launch date, duration of navigation measurement passes, and navigation measurement frequency. For a given cislunar trajectory from translunar injection (TLI) to lunar orbit insertion (LOI), the optimal locations of midcourse corrections, also known as trajectory correction maneuvers (TCM) are determined by minimizing the final 3-σ ∆v subject to a final 3-σ position dispersion constraint for a given launch date, specified measurement pass duration prior to each maneuver, and measurement frequency. Optical navigation (OpNav) is assumed, and OpNav field-of-view (FOV) and lighting constraints are employed. These constraints turn out to be important elements of the problem. The sensitivity of the optimal TCM locations are then investigated by varying the launch date, duration of OpNav measurement passes, and the OpNav measurement frequency, and then re-optimizing the locations of the TCMs. Given the problem parameters provided herein, results show that while the optimal TCM locations with respect to TLI vary greatly from one launch date to another, their locations with respect to LOI are nearly invariant over a 2-month launch window. Results also show that in all cases the optimal location of the last TCM is found to be at the point where the OpNav lunar FOV constraint is first violated. For all other TCMs, OpNav measurement pass duration and measurement frequency can have a moderate to large affect on the optimal TCM locations.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Phosphate (U-Th)/He Thermochronology of Apollo 14 Melt Breccia 14311

Our ability to confidently characterize the impact history of the inner solar system is limited by discrepancies in radiometric dates and age interpretations for lunar rocks, impact melts, and recovered meteorites. It is therefore important to explore different thermally sensitive radiometric systems to unravel the timing and extent of the long term impact flux. Low-temperature thermochronology of lunar samples has the potential to provide more complementary geochronological datasets and further test dynamical models related to the evolution of the inner solar system (e.g., [1]). (U-Th)/He dating is based on the production of 4He atoms by radioactive alpha decay of U and Th (and to a lesser extent, Sm) in a crystal and the thermally activated volumetric diffusion of those 4He nuclides. At high temperatures, the crystal is an open system from which 4He can escape; at lower temperatures, 4He may be retained. This retention temperature depends on factors such as crystal structure and volume fraction of radiation damage in the crystal (e.g., [2, 3]), but is significantly lower for phosphate minerals compared to the diffusion of the radiogenic daughter products in other widely used chronometric systems (e.g., ~75°C in terrestrial apatite (U-Th)/He vs. ~500°C in apatite U-Th-Pb vs. ~900°C in zircon U-Th-Pb chronometry). Phosphate (U-Th)/He dating has been used to decipher peak temperatures and cooling rates related to terrestrial impact events (e.g., [4]). Pairing a low-temperature thermochronometer with higher-temperature approaches (i.e., a combined 207Pb-206Pb and (U-Th)/He approach), can therefore resolve multiple impact ages within a given sample or even grain. However, despite its potential, phosphate (U-Th)/He dating has not been reported on any lunar samples. Here we present the first lunar phosphate (U-Th)/He thermochronology on an Apollo 14 impact melt-breccia.

C A Diaz↗

NASA NTRS2023

Interactions Between Thresholds and Spatial Discretizations of Snow: Insights From Estimates of Wolverine Denning Habitat in the Colorado Rocky Mountains

Thresholds can be used to interpret environmental data in a way that is easily communicated and useful for decision making purposes. However, thresholds are often developed for specific data products and time periods, changing findings when the same threshold is applied to datasets or periods with different characteristics. Here, we test the impact of different spatial discretizations of snow on annual estimates of wolverine denning opportunities in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, defined using a snow water equivalent (SWE) threshold (0.20 m) and threshold date (15 May) from previous habitat assessments. Annual potential wolverine denning area (PWDA) was thresholded from a 36-year (1985 – 2020) snow reanalysis model with three different spatial discretizations: 1) 480 m grid cells (D480), 2) 90 m grid cells (D90), and 3) 480 m grid cells with implicit representations of subgrid snow spatial heterogeneity (S480). Relative to the D480 and S480 discretizations, D90 resolved shallower snow deposits on slopes between 3050 and 3350 m elevation, decreasing PWDA by 10%, on average. In years with warmer and/or drier winters, S480 discretizations with subgrid representations of snow heterogeneity increased PWDA, even within grid cells where mean 15 May SWE was less than the SWE threshold. These simulations increased PWDA by upwards of 30% in low snow years, as compared to the D480 and D90 simulations without subgrid snow heterogeneity. Despite PWDA sensitivity to different snow spatial discretizations, PWDA was controlled more by annual variations in winter precipitation and temperature. However, small changes to the SWE threshold (± 0.07 m) and threshold date (± 2 weeks) also affected PWDA by as much as 82%. Across these threshold ranges, PWDA was approximately 18% more sensitive to the SWE threshold than the threshold date. However, the sensitivity to the threshold date was larger in years with late spring snowfall, when PWDA depended on whether modeled SWE was thresholded before, during, or after spring snow accumulation. Our results demonstrate that snow thresholds are useful but may not always provide a complete picture of the annual variability in snow-adapted wildlife denning opportunities. Studies thresholding spatiotemporal datasets could be improved by including 1) information about the fidelity of thresholds across multiple spatial discretizations, and 2) uncertainties related to ranges of realistic thresholds.

Justin M. Pflug↗

DOE OSTI2023

The underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems in the Northern and Eastern United States

Spring phenology of temperate ecosystems is highly sensitive to climate change, generating various impacts on many important terrestrial surface biophysical processes. Although various prognostic models relying on environmental variables of temperature and photoperiod have been developed for spring phenology, comprehensive ecosystem-scale evaluations over large landscapes and long-time periods remain lacking. Further, environmental variables other than temperature and photoperiod might also importantly constrain spring phenology modelling but remain under-investigation. To address these issues, we leveraged around 20-years datasets of environmental variables (from Daymet and GLDAS products) and the spring phenology metric (i.e., the greenup date) respectively derived from MODIS and PhenoCams across 108 sites in the Northern and Eastern United States. We firstly cross-compared MODIS-derived greenup date with official PhenoCams product with high accuracy (R 2 = 0.70). Then, we evaluated the three prognostic models (i.e., Growing Degree Date (GDD), Sequential (SEQ) and optimality-based (OPT)) with MODIS-derived spring phenology, assessed the model residuals and their associations with soil moisture, rainfall, and solar radiation, and revised the two photoperiod-relevant models (SEQ, OPT) by replacing the daylength variable with solar radiation, which was found to contribute the most to model residuals. We found that 1) all models demonstrated good capability in characterizing spring phenology, with OPT performing the best (RMSE = 8.04 ± 5.05 days), followed by SEQ (RMSE = 10.57 ± 7.77 days) and GDD (RMSE = 10.84 ± 8.42 days), 2) all models displayed high model residuals showing tight correlation with solar radiation (r = 0.45–0.75), and 3) the revised models that included solar radiation significantly performed better with an RMSE reduction by 22.08%. Such results are likely because solar radiation better constrains early growing season plant photosynthesis than photoperiod, supporting the hypothesis of spring phenology as an adaptive strategy to maximize photosynthetic carbon gain (approximated by solar radiation) while minimizing frost damage risk (captured by temperature). Collectively, our study here reveals the underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems, and suggests ways to improve spring phenology modelling and other phenology-related ecological processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sex ratio of Western Bluebirds ( Sialia mexicana ) is mediated by phenology and clutch size

Mothers may produce more of one sex to maximize their fitness if there are differences in the cost of producing each sex or there are differences in their relative reproductive value. Breeding date and clutch size are known to influence offspring sex ratios in birds through sex differences in dispersal, social behaviours, differential mortality and available food resources. We tested whether breeding date, clutch size and drought conditions influenced offspring sex ratios in a sexually size-monomorphic species, the Western Bluebird Sialia mexicana, by interrogating a 21-year dataset. After controlling for differential mortality, we found that hatch dates late in the breeding season were associated with the production of more females, suggesting that the value of producing males declines as the breeding season progresses. When clutch size was taken into account, small clutches yielded significantly more females late in the breeding season than in the early and middle parts of the breeding season, which produced significantly more males. Here, large clutches early in the season tended to produce more females, although this was not significant. Drought severity was not correlated with sex ratio adjustment. We propose and discuss several explanations for these patterns, including male offspring, but not female offspring, acting as helpers, increased female nestling provisioning late in the breeding season, differences in food abundance and egg-laying order. Future work will help to uncover the mechanisms leading to these patterns. Identifying patterns and mechanisms of sex ratio skew from long-term datasets is important for informing predictions regarding life-history trade-offs in wildlife populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2019

This data set consists of phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during 2019, the third full year of whole-ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017). Both spring and autumn phenological events are included. Since April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers. The observed date report here is the first survey date on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed. The SPRUCE experiment is located within the S1 peat bog at the Marcell Experimental Forest, approximately 40 km north of Grand Rapids in north-central Minnesota, USA. User note: Ground observations of phenology from 2016-2021 are available. See SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2021 https://doi.org/10.25581/spruce.094/1874936 for the most recent data as well as links to all other ground phenology datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2023

This data set consists of one comma separated (*.csv) file containing phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during 2023 (2023-03-30 to 2023-11-29), the eighth full year of whole-ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017). Both spring and autumn phenological events are included. Since April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers, these data are reported in annual ground observations data sets (see Related Data Sets). The observed date reported here is the first survey date in 2023 on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed. This data set also contains a companion file in HTML (*.html) containing figures showing the relationship between the day of year and temperature treatment for different phenological phases by species for 2023.

Marcell Experimental Forest↗

DOE OSTI2025

SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2024

This data set consists of one comma separated (*.csv) file containing phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during 2024 (2025-03-06 to 2025-11-21), the ninth full year of whole-ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017). Both spring and autumn phenological events are included. Since April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers, these data are reported in annual ground observations data sets (see Related Data Sets). The observed date reported here is the first survey date in 2024 on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed. This data set also contains a companion file in HTML (*.html) containing figures showing the relationship between the day of year and temperature treatment for different phenological phases by species for 2024.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Riverscape heterogeneity in estimated Chinook Salmon emergence phenology and implications for size and growth

Abstract Many salmonid‐bearing rivers exhibit thermal and hydrologic heterogeneity at multiple spatial and temporal scales, but how this translates into spatiotemporal patterns of fry emergence is poorly understood. Understanding this variability is important because emergence timing determines the biophysical conditions fish first experience (e.g., temperature, flow, and food supply), thereby influencing growth opportunities and survival during this critical life stage. We predicted spring Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) emergence phenology across four northeastern Oregon subbasins over 5–9 years using empirical spawning and temperature data. We then related interannual emergence timing estimates to juvenile salmon size and growth rates at consistent sampling locations. There were clear longitudinal patterns of predicted emergence timing in each subbasin: The shape of these patterns was consistent among years, but not among subbasins. In two subbasins, emergence occurred progressively later with distance upstream, whereas in the other two subbasins emergence was earliest at upstream sites. Within each year, median emergence dates among sites within each subbasin ranged between 44 and 58 days. This spatial variation was comparable to interannual variation, with median emergence dates for a given location in each subbasin ranging between 47 and 74 days among years. Contrary to our expectations, juvenile salmon were not larger in years with earlier emergence, owing to slower estimated spring and summer growth rates compared to years with later emergence. Despite large interannual variation in estimated emergence dates, these results suggest that other factors (e.g., stream flow, temperature, and density‐dependence) were more important than growth duration in determining juvenile salmon growth rates and size among years. We demonstrated considerable spatial and interannual variation in emergence phenology within these subbasins. Understanding how this variation translates to spatiotemporal patterns of juvenile salmon habitat use, growth, and survival has important implications for guiding restoration efforts and understanding how climate change may impact these populations.

Kaylor, Matthew J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

An interlaboratory collaboration to determine consensus 231 Pa/ 235 U model ages of a uranium certified reference material for nuclear forensics

Application of the 231 Pa/ 235 U radiochronometer for nuclear forensic investigations is challenged by a lack of certified reference materials with 231 Pa/ 235 U model purification dates. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory completed an interlaboratory study measuring 231 Pa/ 235 U model ages of New Brunswick Laboratory CRM U100. Results from independent laboratories were combined to calculate a consensus 231 Pa/ 235 U model purification date for CRM U100 of March 26, 1959 ± 237 days. This 231 Pa/ 235 U consensus date for CRM U100 may be used by the nuclear forensic community for quality control of 231 Pa/ 235 U radiochronometry measurements of unknown materials.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2022

Illitization in the Mt. Simon Sandstone, Illinois Basin, USA: Implications for carbon dioxide storage

Clay mineral cementation is one of the most important controls on sandstone reservoir properties. Here, in this paper, the diagenetic history of the Mt. Simon reservoir complex is studied to reveal the origin, timing, and controls of illitization. Samples of sandstone and shale from Mt. Simon reservoir complex were acquired from the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP), a CO 2 storage demonstration project in the central Illinois Basin. Petrographic, SEM, TEM, XRD analyses and K/Ar age dating were completed to identify the major detrital and diagenetic components of the samples and reveal illite to be the major clay component in all samples. Illitic clay coatings in the lower Mt. Simon reservoir are identified as a major control on reservoir properties by inhibiting major precipitation of authigenic quartz during illitization, resulting in highly permeable sandstone, essential for CO 2 storage. The coating box-work morphology and mineralogy are indicative of a detrital smectite origin with subsequent illite growth associated with feldspar dissolution and kaolinite alteration. The mineralogy of bulk material and separate grain size fractions (2–0.6 μm; 0.6–0.2 μm; < 0.2 μm) with illite polytypes 2M 1 , 1M, and 1M d were quantified and age dated via 40 K- 40 Ar methods. The shales or reservoir seals contain the highest proportions of detrital illite with illite in the lower Mt. Simon Sandstone reservoir identified as solely diagenetic. Two major events of illitization are identified throughout the Mt. Simon with more porous reservoir rock exhibiting the older event from approximately 360 to 315 Ma and tighter sandstone units with reservoir properties too low to be considered reservoir exhibiting illite dates from 250 to 220 Ma. This partitioning of illitization is attributed to varied mineralogy controlled by depositional changes and evolution of the greater basin.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A low-latitude, high-elevation 10Be production-rate calibration from the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda

Cosmogenic nuclide surface-exposure dating has become a key tool in geomorphology. Robust application of the technique relies on determination of local nuclide production rates using independently dated calibration sites. However, there are few existing calibration sites in certain regions, particularly in low-latitude, high-elevation regions where cosmogenic nuclide production is theoretically more sensitive to changes in Earth's magnetic field and atmospheric conditions. We present a new cosmogenic beryllium-10 (10Be) production-rate calibration from the equatorial Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda. The calibration is based on radiocarbon dating of basal lake sediments (∼21.3 kyr BP) from Lake Mahoma (2900 m asl) and measured 10Be concentrations from boulders on the crest of a moraine which dams the lake. Our results indicate a time-integrated 10Be production rate of 15.83 ± 0.81 at/g/yr at Lake Mahoma. We then use these calibration data and two public online calculators to calculate ages for moraines in a separate Rwenzori valley for which there exists a minimum-limiting radiocarbon age constraint (∼12 kyr BP) on surficial glacial sediments. This enables us to assess the performance of different parameters used to scale production rates spatially and temporally (e.g., scaling frameworks, geomagnetic field reconstructions, atmospheric models) for surface-exposure age calculation in the region. Our results highlight the sensitivity of low-latitude cosmogenic nuclide surface-exposure ages to discrete calculation parameters, such as scaling framework or reconstructions of Earth's magnetic field, and the utility of determining production rates at sites where limiting age data exists for other nearby landforms.

Anderson, N [Dartmouth College]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cosmogenic 10Be constraints on deglacial snowline rise in the Southern Alps, New Zealand

We report geochronological dating of glacial landforms, such as terminal and lateral moraines, is useful for determining the extent and timing of past glaciation and for reconstructing the magnitude and rate of past climate changes. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, well-dated glacial geomorphological records constrain the last glacial cycle across much of the Waitaki River basin (e.g. Ōhau, Pukaki, Tekapo) but its southern sector such as the Ahuriri River valley remains comparatively unconstrained. Recently, there has been debate on the scale and rapidity of mountain glacier retreat during the last glacial termination, particularly the 20–17 ka period in New Zealand. Missing from this debate is well-constrained equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and associated temperature reconstructions, particularly over the period around 17 ka, which can help us to develop a more complete picture of how past temperature changes drove glacier retreat. Here we report the first glacial chronology dataset from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation from the Ahuriri River valley, Southern Alps, New Zealand (44°23'54"S, 169°39'48"E) based on 38 beryllium-10 ( 10 Be) surface-exposure ages from terminal moraine systems and glaciated bedrock situated at the lower and middle sections of the valley. Our results show that the former Ahuriri Glacier reached its maximum extent at 19.8 ± 0.3 ka, which coincides with the global Last Glacial Maximum. By 16.7 ± 0.3 ka, the glacier had retreat ~18 km up-valley suggesting at least ~43% glacier-length loss relative to its full LGM extent. This deglaciation was accompanied by the formation of a shallow proglacial lake. Using the accumulation area ratio (AAR) method, we estimate that the ELA was lower than present by ~880 m (~1120 m a.s.l.) at 19.8 ± 0.3 ka, and ~770 m lower (~1230 m a.s.l.) at 16.7 ± 0.3 ka. Applying an estimate for temperature lapse rate, this ELA anomaly implies that local air temperature was 5 ± 1 °C colder than present (1981–2010) at 19.8 ± 0.3 ka, while it was 4.4 ± 0.9 °C colder at 16.7 ± 0.3 ka, assuming no change in precipitation. The substantial glacier retreat in response to a relatively small accompanying increases in ELA (110 m) and temperature (0.6 °C) may have been a result of the high glacier-length sensitivity of this glacier system due to its low gradient of former ice surface. Our low warming estimate differs markedly from other deglaciation studies, specifically from Rakaia River valley, which reports a much larger temperature increase at the onset of the last deglaciation. This precisely-dated moraine record along with reconstructed ELA as proxies for atmospheric conditions, provides new insight into post LGM glacier behaviour and climate conditions in New Zealand.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Preservation of Climate‐Driven Landslide Dams in Western Oregon

Abstract Bedrock landsliding, including the formation of landslide dams, is a predominant geomorphic process in steep landscapes. Clarifying the importance of hydrologic and seismic mechanisms for triggering deep‐seated landslides remains an ongoing effort, and formulation of geomorphic metrics that predict dam preservation is crucial for quantifying secondary landslide hazards. Here, we identify >200 landslide‐dammed lakes in western Oregon and utilize dendrochronology and enhanced 14 C dating (“wiggle matching”) of “ghost forests” to establish slope failure timing at 20 sites. Our dated landslide dataset reveals bedrock landsliding has been common since the last Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake in January 1700 AD. Our study does not reveal landslides that date to 1700 AD. Rather, we observe temporal clustering of at least four landslides in the winter of 1889/1890 AD, coincident with a series of atmospheric rivers that generated one of the largest regionally recorded floods. We use topographic and field analyses to assess the relation between dam preservation and topographic characteristics of the impounded valleys. In contrast to previous studies, we do not observe systematic scaling between dam size and upstream drainage area, though dam stability indices for our sites correspond with “stable” dams elsewhere. Notably, we observe that dams are preferentially preserved at drainage areas of ∼1.5 to 13 km 2 and valley widths of ∼25 to 80 m, which may reflect the reduced downstream influence of debris flows and the accumulation of mature conifer trees upstream from landslide‐dammed lake outlets. We suggest that wood accumulation upstream of landslide dams tempers large stream discharges, thus inhibiting dam incision.

Struble, William T.↗