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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing NASA SatCORPS Global Data Products with Cloud Computing and Machine Learning

Operational satellite imager radiances are valuable for deriving many different physical parameters that can be used for a variety of weather, aviation, and energy applications. The NASA Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) applies a suite of algorithms to meteorological satellite data to provide cloud properties, radiative fluxes and other parameters on a global scale. The use of cloud computing has enabled recent enhancements to process a constellation of geostationary satellites at higher spatiotemporal resolutions than previously possible that meet low latency and near real-time needs. Data taken from Meteosat-8 and -11, Himawari, GOES-16, and -17 are processed and combined with operational polar orbiting satellite data and composited on a 3-km grid to provide global coverage. To improve the utility of the data products, machine learning and other innovative methods are applied in various ways to help minimize data product uncertainties under the most challenging conditions and to improve their consistency at all times of day. An update on recent SatCORPS enhancements is presented, highlighting the community benefits achieved with the use of cloud computing and machine learning.

William L Smith↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Volume 5: Natural Gas Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation

To address the data needs of energy system designers and to serve as a baseline for research and development, NETL has carried out a study to characterize the flexibility attributes - both performance and cost - of nine common commercial natural gas-fueled electricity generating units. The intermittent output of low-carbon, renewable power generation sources such as wind and solar create challenges to grid stability and reliability. Fossil-fueled power generation technologies are currently used to provide reliable, on-demand power during periods of reduced renewable output. Dispatchable generators must be able to accommodate increasing renewable generation as the nation pursues the Administration’s target of a decarbonized energy sector by 2035. As energy system experts seek to identify least-cost approaches to decarbonization, accurate cost and performance data characterizing dispatchable fossil generators that operate flexibly, at capacity factors that have been declining over time, and are needed to inform models for capacity expansion. Furthermore, these technologies continue to be a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions, providing the impetus for research and development, including the advancement and potential incorporation of carbon capture technologies. This study characterizes the cost and performance of select state-of-the-art natural gas-fueled power generation technologies: reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE), simple cycle combustion turbines, and natural gas combined cycles (NGCC). An emphasis is placed on flexibility characteristics, such as part-load heat rate, ramp rates, start up times, and start up costs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS1985

A Study of the Utilization of Advanced Composites in Fuselage Structures of Commercial Aircraft

A study was conducted to define the technology and data needed to support the introduction of advanced composites in the future production of fuselage structure in large transport aircraft. Fuselage structures of six candidate airplanes were evaluated for the baseline component. The MD-100 was selected on the basis of its representation of 1990s fuselage structure, an available data base, its impact on the schedule and cost of the development program, and its availability and suitability for flight service evaluation. Acceptance criteria were defined, technology issues were identified, and a composite fuselage technology development plan, including full-scale tests, was identified. The plan was based on composite materials to be available in the mid to late 1980s. Program resources required to develop composite fuselage technology are estimated at a rough order of magnitude to be 877 man-years exclusive of the bird strike and impact dynamic test components. A conceptual composite fuselage was designed, retaining the basic MD-100 structural arrangement for doors, windows, wing, wheel wells, cockpit enclosure, major bulkheads, etc., resulting in a 32 percent weight savings.

Watts, D. J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Automatic microseismic event picking via unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Effective and efficient arrival picking plays an important role in microseismic and earthquake data processing and imaging. Widely used short-term-average long-term-average ratio (STA/LTA) based arrival picking algorithms suffer from the sensitivity to moderate-to-strong random ambient noise. To make the state-of-the-art arrival picking approaches effective, microseismic data need to be first pre-processed, for example, removing sufficient amount of noise, and second analysed by arrival pickers. To conquer the noise issue in arrival picking for weak microseismic or earthquake event, I leverage the machine learning techniques to help recognizing seismic waveforms in microseismic or earthquake data. Because of the dependency of supervised machine learning algorithm on large volume of well-designed training data, I utilize an unsupervised machine learning algorithm to help cluster the time samples into two groups, that is, waveform points and non-waveform points. The fuzzy clustering algorithm has been demonstrated to be effective for such purpose. A group of synthetic, real microseismic and earthquake data sets with different levels of complexity show that the proposed method is much more robust than the state-of-the-art STA/LTA method in picking microseismic events, even in the case of moderately strong background noise.

Chen, Yangkang↗

DOE OSTI2020

Adapting Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate indicators and metrics for resilience, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. Given the complexity of resilience analyses and mitigation strategies, there is limited value in attempting to identify a single resilience metric, as no one metric can quantify resilience or its associated value for all stakeholders. Instead, a necessary focus of the research community should lie in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing that implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics are challenges that need to be addressed, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dedicated staff and time to researching how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools, as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) and Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) for Disaster Resilience

"Earth systems have now been observed continuously for more than 50 years, not only from space but also from airplanes, balloons and in-situ sensors. With the addition of commercial remote sensing providers, many more Internet-of-Things sensors and new NASA and international observatories being planned, these incredible amounts of data will soon be augmented by even larger amounts of diverse data and therefore will become more and more difficult to access, integrate, understand and utilize. At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts, in order to predict, manage, and mitigate the effects of extreme science events and disasters, the information produced by all of this data needs to be optimized, organized and analyzed in such a way that it can be utilized by traditional as well as many new non-traditional users. This calls for the development of observing systems that are agile, coordinated and responsive to events of interest, and for information systems to be dynamic, interactive and fast. With these objectives in mind, the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has been developing technologies that will allow for the development of Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) in a distributed, coordinated fashion (i.e., similar to an “Internet-of-Earth-Things”), as well as for the development of novel information systems or Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) that will build a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth systems, will derive forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and will also offer the capability to investigate many hypothetical evolution scenarios under varying impact assumptions. Both NOS and ESDT will be facilitated by the unprecedented advances of Artificial Intelligence technologies, especially Machine Learning (ML), for extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data, for fusing and assimilating diverse data together and for running complex models faster. Together NOS and ESDT will help build the capabilities needed to anticipate, predict and mitigate the effects of future disasters."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

NASA NTRS1987

Wind tunnel requirements for computational fluid dynamics code verification

The role of experiment in the development of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) for aerodynamic flow field prediction is discussed. Requirements for code verification from two sources that pace the development of CFD are described for: (1) development of adequate flow modeling, and (2) establishment of confidence in the use of CFD to predict complex flows. The types of data needed and their accuracy differs in detail and scope and leads to definite wind tunnel requirements. Examples of testing to assess and develop turbulence models, and to verify code development, are used to establish future wind tunnel testing requirements. Versatility, appropriate scale and speed range, accessibility for nonintrusive instrumentation, computerized data systems, and dedicated use for verification were among the more important requirements identified.

Marvin, Joseph G.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Wind tunnel requirements for computational fluid dynamics code verification

The role of experiment in the development of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for aerodynamic flow field prediction is discussed. Requirements for code verification from two sources that pace the development of CFD are described for: (1) development of adequate flow modeling, and (2) establishment of confidence in the use of CFD to predict complex flows. The types of data needed and their accuracy differs in detail and scope and leads to definite wind tunnel requirements. Examples of testing to assess and develop turbulence models, and to verify code development, are used to establish future wind tunnel testing requirements. Versatility, appropriate scale and speed range, accessibility for nonintrusive instrumentation, computerized data systems, and dedicated use for verification were among the more important requirements identified.

Marvin, Joseph G.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Third Quarter FY · 13

The AMU team worked on seven tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford completed the objective lightning forecast tool for east -central Florida airports and delivered the tool and the final report to the customers. (2) Ms. Shafer continued work for Vandenberg Air Force Base on an automated tool to relate pressure gradients to peak winds. (3) Dr. Huddleston updated and delivered the tool that shows statistics on the timing of the first lightning strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) area. (4) Dr. Bauman continued work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on the Eastern Range (ER). (5) Ms. Crawford acquired the software and radar data needed to create a dual-Doppler analysis over the east-central Florida and KSC/CCAFS areas. (6) Mr. Decker continued developing a wind pairs database for the Launch Services Program to use when evaluating upper-level winds for launch vehicles. (7) Dr. Watson continued work to assimilate observational data into the high-resolution model configurations she created for Wallops Flight Facility and the ER.

Bauman, William↗

NASA NTRS1978

Analysis of data user's needs for performance evaluation of solar heating and cooling systems

In a successful data acquisition program, the information needs must be evaluated, the design and cost factors of the program must be determined, and a data management loop must be organized and operated in order to collect, process, and disseminate the needed information in useable formats. This paper describes each of these program elements in detail as an aid for the solar heating and cooling data manager and user to implement effective data acquisition and monitoring systems. Consideration is given to the development of evaluation techniques which will aid in the determination of solar energy systems performances.

Christensen, D. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Derivation of Capabilities and Resources for Treating Medical Conditions in Deep Space

BACKGROUND: Medical care in spaceflight requires the adaptation of terrestrial standards to the constraints of the space environment. However, there is often conflict between the ideal resources required for treatment and diagnosis of a medical condition, and the constraints on their mass, volume, data needs, etc. This optimization of trades between medical risk and resources will be a significant challenge for deep space medical system design. METHODS: A team of physicians with a broad range of expertise reviewed the 120 medical conditions on the condition list for NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via analysis of Complex Tradespaces Medical Database (IMPACT-MD). Each team member was assigned a subset of conditions based on their experience and training. The assigned physician generated a proposed list of capabilities, definitions, and resources required to treat each condition based on terrestrial practice guidelines, medical literature, and subject matter expertise. Additional specialists were consulted for conditions where expertise was not present within the main group. The proposed list was then reviewed by the broader team and modified as needed to achieve consensus. Each capability and resource was then assigned parameters to define quantity required per medical event, necessity, training level required, and primacy order of any alternative resources. These capabilities and resources were placed into condition specific tables and delivered to a team of engineers who added mass and volume data for each specific resource and converted the table into a database for use as input to a computational model to simulate spaceflight (IMPACT) DISCUSSION: This process ensures that a minimum of three subject matter experts review and agree upon the scope of practice, medical diagnostic tools, and treatment modalities that would be necessary to address emergent and non-emergent conditions that may arise during spaceflight to inform requirements during the vehicle design phase. The method is scalable to any design reference mission and permits modification of the existing database as information, conditions or experience are added. By including specialists, generalists, and those with subject matter expertise in the spaceflight environment on the team, we ensure that the included capabilities represent a realistic and actionable foundation for planning deep space missions.

D R Levin↗

DOE OSTI2022

Phase curves of small bodies from the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog

Extensive photometric surveys continue to produce enormous stores of data on small bodies. These data are typically sparsely obtained at arbitrary (or unknown) rotational phases. Therefore, new methods for processing such data need to be developed to make the most of these vast catalogs. We aim to produce a method of recreating the phase curves of small bodies by considering the uncertainties introduced by the nominal errors in the magnitudes and the effect introduced by rotational variations. Here, we use the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog data as a benchmark to construct phase curves of all small bodies in u', g', r', i', and z' filters. From the phase curves, we obtain the absolute magnitudes and we use them to set up the absolute colors, which are the colors of the asteroids that are not affected by changes in the phase angle. We selected objects with ≥3 observations taken in at least one filter and spanning over a minimum of 5 degrees in the phase angle. We developed a method that combines Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian inference to estimate the absolute magnitudes using the HG 12 * photometric system. We obtained almost 15 000 phase curves, with about 12 000 of these including all five filters. The absolute magnitudes and absolute colors are compatible with previously published data that support our method. The method we developed is fully automatic and well suited for a run based on large amounts of data. Moreover, it includes the nominal uncertainties in the magnitudes and the whole distribution of possible rotational states of the objects producing what are possibly less precise values, that is, larger uncertainties, but more accurate, namely, closer to the actual value. To our knowledge, this work is the first to include the effect of rotational variations in such a manner.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Disruption avoidance via island suppression: the crucial roles of DIII-D and foundational research

The FESAC long range plan calls out disruption avoidance and mitigation as key remaining technical gaps. In discussing the roles of DIII-D and NSTX-U, the FESAC long range plan says “Additional research on these facilities, in combination with private and international collaborations, continuing support of existing university tokamak programs, and utilization of US expertise in theory and simulation, is needed to find solutions to remaining technical gaps. These gaps include disruption prediction, avoidance, and mitigation …”. Disruptions pose an existential threat to ITER and to FPPs. For a fusion reactor, unplanned shutdowns caused by disruptions will be a significant barrier to connecting such a reactor to the electric grid, even if disruption mitigation is successful. Disruption studies for ITER in recent years have largely focused on disruption mitigation (e.g., pellet injection), motivated by near-term deadlines for finalizing the design of the mitigation hardware. It is recognized, however, that mitigation alone will not suffice. The 2022 U.S. ITER Research Needs Workshop Report states that ”[d]isruptions are considered the largest threat to the ITER Research Program”, and that “[m]itigation should be a last resort”. As we discuss below, there are unresolved foundational issues that play a critical role in avoidance, and DIII-D is an ideal device for generating the data needed to address these issues.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Powering the Lunar Surface: Managing Dust, Extreme Environments, and Power Needs

Power availability remains one of the primary constraints for lunar surface science. This talk reviews power requirements from previously flown instruments to help prepare future payloads for upcoming CLPS opportunities and highlights the testing and environmental simulation capabilities at NASA JSC that enable reliable lunar payload development. It also outlines the power needs, environmental challenges, and emerging technologies required to support sustained human and robotic operations on the lunar surface as part of NASA’s Moon to Mars strategy. Key challenges include variable solar illumination at polar and equatorial regions, extreme thermal environments, and dust driven degradation that limit current surface power systems. The science data needed for resource identification and landing site planning will allow for the successful preparation of crewed Artemis activities and long-term presence. Building on recent missions, current test infrastructure, and emerging power technology pathways, this presentation equips industry, academia, and government teams with the information needed to design robust lunar payloads, reduce development risk, and fully leverage the increasing cadence of CLPS missions. These developments will form a critical technical foundation for long duration lunar presence and future Mars exploration.

Anastasia Ford↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Powering the Lunar Surface: Managing Dust, Extreme Environments, and Power Needs

lunar power↗

NASA NTRS2008

Estimating Software-Development Costs With Greater Accuracy

COCOMOST is a computer program for use in estimating software development costs. The goal in the development of COCOMOST was to increase estimation accuracy in three ways: (1) develop a set of sensitivity software tools that return not only estimates of costs but also the estimation error; (2) using the sensitivity software tools, precisely define the quantities of data needed to adequately tune cost estimation models; and (3) build a repository of software-cost-estimation information that NASA managers can retrieve to improve the estimates of costs of developing software for their project. COCOMOST implements a methodology, called '2cee', in which a unique combination of well-known pre-existing data-mining and software-development- effort-estimation techniques are used to increase the accuracy of estimates. COCOMOST utilizes multiple models to analyze historical data pertaining to software-development projects and performs an exhaustive data-mining search over the space of model parameters to improve the performances of effort-estimation models. Thus, it is possible to both calibrate and generate estimates at the same time. COCOMOST is written in the C language for execution in the UNIX operating system.

Baker, Dan↗

NASA NTRS2004

Acoustic Emission Analysis of Shuttle Thermal Protection System

Acoustic emission (AE) signals generated from projectile impacts on reinforced and advanced carbon/carbon (RCC and ACC) panels, fired from a compressed-gas gun, identify the type and severity of damage sustained by the target. This type of testing is vital in providing the required "return to flight" (RTF) data needed to ensure continued and safe operation of NASA's Space Shuttle fleet. The gas gun at Kennedy Space Center is capable of propelling 12-inch by 3-inch cylinders of external tank (ET) foam at exit velocities exceeding 1,000 feet per second. Conventional AE analysis techniques require time domain processing of impulse data, along with amplitude distribution analysis. It is well known that identical source excitations can produce a wide range of AE signals amplitudes. In order to satisfy RTF goals, it is necessary to identify impact energy levels above and below damage thresholds. Spectral analysis techniques involving joint time frequency analysis (JTFA) are used to reinforce time domain AE analysis. JTFA analysis of the AE signals consists of short-time Fourier transforms (STFT) and the Huang-Hilbert transform (HHT). The HHT provides a very good measure of the instantaneous frequency of impulse events dominated by a single component. Identifying failure modes and cracking of fibers from flexural and/or extensional mode acoustic signals will help support in-flight as well as postflight impact analysis.

Lane, John↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-11678-DND

Cloud vertical profiles retrieved from CALIPSO and CloudSat data provide additional information that greatly improves the estimate of atmospheric radiative heating rates and potentially improves the estimate of the global surface radiation budget. To utilize CALIPSO and CloudSat cloud vertical profiles, we combined their profiles and generated merged profiles. Weused the merged cloud profiles and MODIS derived cloud profiles by the CERES cloud algorithm in irradiance computations. In this study, the improvement of the irradiance by CALIPSO and CloudSat derived merged cloud vertical profiles is evaluated by comparing modeled irradiances with and without merged cloud profiles. Because of lower cloud base heights provided by the merged profiles compared with cloud base heights derived from an empirical formula using the MODIS derived cloud top height and optical thickness, the global annual mean surface longwave downward irradiance increases approximately by 7 Wm-2. While CALIPSO version 3 data have not been incorporated in the irradiance computation and the effect of the new CALIPSO data needs to be assessed, a comparison with surface observations suggests an improvement of surface downward longwave irradiance computations. The surface downward longwave irradiance computed with CALIPSO and CloudSat merged clouds agrees better with surface observations than the irradiance computed with MODIS only does. The bias difference over ARM SGP sites with 2 years of data decreases from -5 W m-2to -2 Wm-2, and it decreases from -9 Wm-2to no bias over polar validation sites. The result suggests that CALIPSO CloudSat derived merged clouds significantly improve surface longwave irradiance estimates once they are combined with MODIS derived cloud properties and with temperature and humidity profiles from reanalysis.

Seiji Kato↗