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DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Warped and Hooked: Mapping the Magellanic Clouds in Three Dimensions Using Red Clump Stars

The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) are the Milky Way’s nearest interacting galaxy pair, offering a unique laboratory for studying tidal effects on galactic disks. Despite extensive survey efforts, the 3D geometry of the Magellanic Clouds, particularly the putative warp of the LMC, remains poorly constrained due to incompleteness in their crowded centers and the low stellar density of their peripheries, which demand wide-field coverage. Using red clump (RC) stars as standard candles, corrected for age- and metallicity-dependent population effects with empirically calibrated color–magnitude relations and spatially resolved star formation histories, we construct the most detailed distance map of the Magellanic system to date. Based on ∼2.3 million RC stars from Gaia Data Release 3 combined with modern reddening maps, we measure median heliocentric distances of 50.62 ± 2.32 kpc for the LMC (to ∼23°) and 60.75 ± 2.85 kpc for the SMC (to ∼12°). The maps reveal substructures including the LMC Northern Arm, southern hooks, the Magellanic Bridge, and SMC peripheral overdensities, with refreshed distance estimates. Fitting the LMC disk within 7° yields a global inclination of $i=25\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }32\pm 0\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }10$ and a line-of-nodes position angle of $\theta = 142\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }34\pm 0\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }21$. Most strikingly, we find the LMC periphery is warped azimuthally into a U-shaped structure reaching a vertical amplitude of ∼7 kpc at a radius of ∼15 kpc. In future work, we will perform detailed comparisons with live N-body simulations to assess possible formation scenarios for the LMC warp.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2021

Assessing Disaggregated SMAP Soil Moisture Products in the United States

A soil moisture (SM) disaggregation algorithm based on thermal inertia (TI) theory was implemented to downscale the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Enhanced product(SPL2SMPE) from 9 km to 1 km over the continental United States. The algorithm applies land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at higher spatial resolution to estimate relative soil wetness within a coarse SMAP grid -this MODIS-derived relative wetness is then used to produce the downscaled SMAP SM. Results from the algorithm were evaluated in terms of their spatiotemporal coverage and accuracy using in situ measurements from SMAP Core Validation Sites (CVS), the US Department of Agriculture Soil Climate Analysis Network (USDA-SCAN), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Reference Network(NOAA-CRN). Results were also compared with the baselineSPL2SMPE and the SMAP/Sentinel-1 (SPL2SMAPS) 1kmproduct. Overall, the unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE)of the disaggregated SM at the CVS using the TI approach is approximately 0.04 m3=m3, which is the SMAP mission requirement for the baseline products. The TI approach out performs the SMAP/Sentinel SL2SMAPS 1km product by approximately0.02 m3=m3. Over the agriculture/crop areas from SCAN and CRN sparse network stations, the TI approach exhibits better ubRMSE compared to SPL2SMPE andSPL2SMAPS byabout0.01 and 0.02 m3=m3, indicating its advantage in these areas. However, a drawback of this approach is that there are data gaps due to cloud cover as optical sensors cannot have a clear view of the land surface.

Soil moisture↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surface meteorology and Solar Energy

The Release 5.1 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data contains parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems. Parameters fall under 11 categories including: Solar cooking, solar thermal applications, solar geometry, tilted solar panels, energy storage systems, surplus product storage systems, cloud information, temperature, wind, other meteorological factors, and supporting information. This latest release contains new parameters based on recommendations by the renewable energy industry and it is more accurate than previous releases. On-line plotting capabilities allow quick evaluation of potential renewable energy projects for any region of the world. The SSE data set is formulated from NASA satellite- and reanalysis-derived insolation and meteorological data for the 10-year period July 1983 through June 1993. Results are provided for 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude grid cells over the globe. Average daily and monthly measurements for 1195 World Radiation Data Centre ground sites are also available. [Mission Objectives] The SSE project contains insolation and meteorology data intended to aid in the development of renewable energy systems. Collaboration between SSE and technology industries such as the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables ( HOMER ) may aid in designing electric power systems that employ some combination of wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, or diesel generators to produce electricity. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=1993-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

Stackhouse, Paul W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fractionation of Filamentous Algae from Mixed Biofilms

Filamentous algae, which grow in long, hair-like filaments within biofilms, play a crucial role in wastewater treatment due to their ability to produce significant biomass and their resistance to predation compared to traditional microalgal treatments. These algae can effectively uptake and utilize pollutants, particularly excessive nitrogen (ammonia, nitrate, nitrite) and phosphorus (phosphate), making filamentous algae valuable for wastewater treatment, as well as bioethanol and biodiesel production due to high lipid productions. However, each algal species possesses different capacities, necessitating a thorough genetic identification and understanding of each community. A major challenge in accurately assessing these communities is the lack of coverage in large sequencing databases which can lead to misrepresentation of the true composition and abundance of organisms and overall sequencing bias. To address this, I evaluated chemical and physical techniques for separating filamentous algae from mixed biofilms to achieve clean genetic sequencing results. I employed pH washing (0.001M HCl, 0.001M HCl, DiH2O, 0.0001M HCl, 0.001M HCl) for chemical treatment, followed by physical separation through centrifugation (5000rpm, 6500rpm) or filtration (2mm, 250um, 75um). The most successful method was deionized water washing, which yielded clear differences across stacked filters; the 2mm filtrate showed high levels of filamentous algae, with microalgae eluting in the 75um filtrate or remaining within agglutinations of algae larger filters. Base washing eluted the highest concentrations of microalgae, with larger filter sizes retaining more filamentous algae, indicating the breakdown of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). Our downstream plans include sending the high-throughput next-generation sequencing to confirm the purity and ratios of filamentous and non-filamentous algae, as well as bacteria present, thereby validating the success of our treatments. Potential applications include creating community-based fractions for analysis, refining current sequencing data with clearer isolations, and generating designer biofilms to enhance our understanding of community interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

GPCP↗

NASA NTRS2012

Applications of MODIS Fluorescent Line Height Measurements to Monitor Water Quality Trends and Algal Bloom Activity

Recent advances in satellite and airborne remote sensing, such as improvements in sensor and algorithm calibrations, processing techniques and atmospheric correction procedures have provided for increased coverage of remote-sensing, ocean-color products for coastal regions. In particular, for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensor calibration updates, improved aerosol retrievals and new aerosol models has led to improved atmospheric correction algorithms for turbid waters and have improved the retrieval of ocean color in coastal waters. This has opened the way for studying ocean phenomena and processes at finer spatial scales, such as the interactions at the land-sea interface, trends in coastal water quality and algal blooms. Human population growth and changes in coastal management practices have brought about significant changes in the concentrations of organic and inorganic, particulate and dissolved substances entering the coastal ocean. There is increasing concern that these inputs have led to declines in water quality and have increase local concentrations of phytoplankton, which cause harmful algal blooms. In two case studies we present MODIS observations of fluorescence line height (FLH) to 1) assess trends in water quality for Tampa Bay, Florida and 2) illustrate seasonal and annual variability of algal bloom activity in Monterey Bay, California as well as document estuarine/riverine plume induced red tide events. In a comprehensive analysis of long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data and satellite imagery from Tampa Bay we assess the validity of the MODIS FLH product against chlorophyll-a and a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout a large optically complex estuarine system. A systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the relationship between FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a responds to varying conditions and to develop a near decadal trend in water quality changes. In situ monitoring locations that correlated well with satellite imagery were in depths greater than seven meters and were located over five kilometers from shore. Water quality parameter of total nitrogen, phosphorous, turbidity and biological oxygen demand had high correlations with these sites, as well. Satellite FLH estimates show improving water quality from 2003-2007 with a slight decline up through 2011. Dinoflagellate blooms in Monterey Bay, California (USA) have recently increased in frequency and intensity. Nine years of MODIS FLH observations are used to describe the annual and seasonal variability of bloom activity within the Bay. Three classes of MODIS algorithms were correlated against in situ chlorophyll measurements. The FLH algorithm provided the most robust estimate of bloom activity. Elevated concentrations of phytoplankton were evident during the months of August-November, a period during which increased occurrences of dinoflagellate blooms have been observed in situ. Seasonal patterns of FLH show the on- and offshore movement of areas of high phytoplankton biomass between oceanographic seasons. Higher concentrations of phytoplankton are also evident in the vicinity of the land-based nutrient sources and outflows, and the cyclonic bay-wide circulation can transport these nutrients to the northern Bay bloom incubation region. Both of these case studies illustrate the utility MODIS FLH observations in supporting management decisions in coastal and estuarine waters.

Fischer, Andrew↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗

NASA NTRS2009

MISR Aerosol Product Attributes and Statistical Comparisons with MODIS

In this paper, Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aerosol product attributes are described, including geometry and algorithm performance flags. Actual retrieval coverage is mapped and explained in detail using representative global monthly data. Statistical comparisons are made with coincident aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (ANG) retrieval results from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The relationship between these results and the ones previously obtained for MISR and MODIS individually, based on comparisons with coincident ground-truth observations, is established. For the data examined, MISR and MODIS each obtain successful aerosol retrievals about 15% of the time, and coincident MISR-MODIS aerosol retrievals are obtained for about 6%-7% of the total overlap region. Cloud avoidance, glint and oblique-Sun exclusions, and other algorithm physical limitations account for these results. For both MISR and MODIS, successful retrievals are obtained for over 75% of locations where attempts are made. Where coincident AOD retrievals are obtained over ocean, the MISR-MODIS correlation coefficient is about 0.9; over land, the correlation coefficient is about 0.7. Differences are traced to specific known algorithm issues or conditions. Over-ocean ANG comparisons yield a correlation of 0.67, showing consistency in distinguishing aerosol air masses dominated by coarse-mode versus fine-mode particles. Sampling considerations imply that care must be taken when assessing monthly global aerosol direct radiative forcing and AOD trends with these products, but they can be used directly for many other applications, such as regional AOD gradient and aerosol air mass type mapping and aerosol transport model validation. Users are urged to take seriously the published product data-quality statements.

Kahn, Ralph A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

State and Regional Variation in Prescription- and Payment-Related Promoters of Adherence to Blood Pressure Medication

Introduction: Medication adherence can improve hypertension management. How blood pressure medications are prescribed and purchased can promote or impede adherence. Methods: We used comprehensive dispensing data on prescription blood pressure medication from Symphony Health’s 2017 Integrated Dataverse to assess how prescription- and payment-related factors that promote medication adherence (ie, fixed-dose combinations, generic formulations, mail order, low-cost or no-copay medications) vary across US states and census regions and across the market segments (grouped by patient age, prescriber type, and payer type) responsible for the greatest number of blood pressure medication fills. Results: In 2017, 706.5 million prescriptions for blood pressure medication were filled, accounting for $29.0 billion in total spending (17.0% incurred by patients). As a proportion of all fills, factors that promoted adherence varied by state: fixed-dose combinations (from 5.8% in Maine to 17.9% in Mississippi); generic formulations (from 95.2% in New Jersey to 98.4% in Minnesota); mail order (from 4.7% in Rhode Island to 14.5% in Delaware); and lower or no copayment (from 56.6% in Utah to 72.8% in California). Furthermore, mean days’ supply per fill (from 43.1 in Arkansas to 63.8 in Maine) and patient spending per therapy year (from $38 in Hawaii to $76 in Georgia) varied. Concentration of adherence factors differed by market segment. Patients aged 18 to 64 with a primary care physician prescriber and Medicaid coverage had the lowest concentration of fixed-dose combination fills, mean days’ supply per fill, and patient spending per therapy year. Patients aged 65 years or older with a primary care physician prescriber and commercial insurance had the highest concentration of fixeddose combinations fills and mail order fills. Conclusion: Addressing regional and market segment variation in factors promoting blood pressure medication adherence may increase adherence and improve hypertension management.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Global electric field determination in the Earth's outer magnetosphere using energetic charged particles

Although many properties of the Earth's magnetosphere have been measured and quantified in the past 30 years since it was discovered, one fundamental measurement (for zeroth order MHD equilibrium) has been made infrequently and with poor spatial coverage - the global electric field. This oversight is due in part to the neglect of theorists. However, there is renewed interest in the convection electric field because it is now realized to be central to many magnetospheric processes, including the global MHD equilibrium, reconnection rates, Region 2 Birkeland currents, magnetosphere ionosphere coupling, ring current and radiation belt transport, substorm injections, and several acceleration mechanisms. Unfortunately the standard experimental methods have not been able to synthesize a global field (excepting the pioneering work of McIlwain's geostationary models) and we are left with an overly simplistic theoretical field, the Volland-Stern electric field model. Single point measurements of the plasmapause were used to infer the appropriate amplitudes of this model, parameterized by K(sub p). Although this result was never intended to be the definitive electric field model, it has gone nearly unchanged for 20 years. The analysis of current data sets requires a great deal more accuracy than can be provided by the Volland-Stern model. The variability of electric field shielding has not been properly addressed although effects of penetrating magnetospheric electric fields has been seen in mid-and low-latitude ionospheric data sets. The growing interest in substorm dynamics also requires a much better assessment of the electric fields responsible for particle injections. Thus we proposed and developed algorithms for extracting electric fields from particle data taken in the Earth's magnetosphere. As a test of the effectiveness of these new techniques, we analyzed data taken by the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft in equatorial orbit from 1984 to 1989.

Eastman, Timothy E.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Application of Gaussian Mixture Regression for the Correction of Low Cost PM2.5 Monitoring Data in Accra, Ghana

Low-cost sensors (LCSs) for air quality monitoring have enormous potential to improve air quality data coverage in resource-limited parts of the world such as sub-Saharan Africa. LCSs, however, are affected by environment and source conditions. To establish high-quality data, LCSs must be collocated and calibrated with reference grade PM2.5 monitors. From March 2020, a low-cost PurpleAir PM2.5 monitor was collocated with a Met One Beta Attenuation Monitor 1020 in Accra, Ghana. While previous studies have shown that multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest regression (RF) can improve accuracy and correlation between PurpleAir and reference data, MLR and RF yielded suboptimal improvement in the Accra collocation (R2 = 0.81 and R2 = 0.81, respectively). We present the first application of Gaussian mixture regression (GMR) to air quality data calibration and demonstrate improvement over traditional methods by increasing the collocated PM2.5 correlation and accuracy to R2 = 0.88 and MAE = 2.2 μg/cu. m. Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are a probability density estimator and clustering method from which nonlinear regressions that tolerate missing inputs can be derived. We find that even when given missing inputs, GMR provides better correlation than MLR and RF performed with complete data. GMR also allows us to estimate calibration certainty. When evaluated, 95% confidence intervals agreed with reference PM2.5 data 96% of the time, suggesting that the model accurately assesses its own confidence. Additionally, clustering within the GMM is consistent with climate characteristics, providing confidence that the calibration approach can learn underlying relationships in data.

Sensors↗

NASA NTRS2023

Assessment of the Impact of Discontinuity in Satellite Instruments and Retrievals on Global PM2.5

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the leading environmental risk factor for mortality globally. Satellite-derived estimates of surface PM2.5 developed from a combination of satellites, simulations, and ground monitor data are relied upon for health impact studies. The ability to develop satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates requires the continued availability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) sources. This work examines the impact of the addition or loss of satellite AOD data sources on global PM2.5 estimation and the impact of continuing the longterm record with AOD from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi-National Polar orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite after the loss of the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and MISR (Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on board the Terra and Aqua satellites. We find that the addition of VIIRS S-NPP AOD products to geophysical PM2.5 estimates from satellites and simulations causes regional differences that correspond to differences in the VIIRS and MODIS Deep Blue AOD algorithms and sampling. Changes in long-term trends and timeseries due to the addition or loss of AOD data sources are generally within their uncertainties. Statistical fusion with ground monitor data partially corrects for changes due to sampling differences when introducing the VIIRS AOD products, but uncertainty remains over desert regions where ground monitor coverage is sparse. This work provides promise for the sustained development of global satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates, despite discontinuities in instruments and retrieval methods.

Remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2018

Characterization of On-Orbit GPS Transmit Antenna Patterns for Space Users

The GPS Antenna Characterization Experiment (GPS ACE) has made extensive observations of GPS L1 signals received at geosynchronous (GEO) altitude, with the objective of developing comprehensive models of the signal levels and signal performance in the GPS transmit antenna side lobes. The experiment was originally motivated by the fact that data on the characteristics and performance of the GPS signals available in GEO and other high Earth orbits was limited. The lack of knowledge of the power and accuracy of the side lobe signals on-orbit added risk to missions seeking to employ the side lobes to meet navigation requirements or improve performance. The GPS ACE Project lled that knowledge gap through a collaboration between The Aerospace Corporation and NASA Goddard Space Fight Center to collect and analyze observations from GPS side lobe transmissions to a satellite at GEO using a highly-sensitive GPS receiver installed at the ground station. The GPS ACE architecture has been in place collecting observations of the GPS constellation with extreme sensitivity for several years. This sensitivity combined with around-the-clock, all-in-view processing enabled full azimuthal coverage of the GPS transmit gain patterns over time to angles beyond 90 degrees o -boresight. Results discussed in this paper include the reconstructed transmit gain patterns, with comparisons to available pre-fight gain measurements from the GPS vehicle contractors. For GPS blocks with extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results show remarkable agreement with ground based measurements. For blocks without extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results provide the only existing assessments of the full transmit gain patterns. The paper also includes results of pseudorange deviation analysis to assess systematic errors associated with GPS side lobe signals.

Donaldson, Jennifer E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Characterization of On-Orbit GPS Transmit Antenna Patterns for Space Users

Jennifer E Donaldson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Satellite Soil Moisture and Rainfall in the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness System

The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness system(LHASA)gives a global view of landslide hazard in nearly real time. Currently, it is being upgraded from version 1 to version 2, which entails improvements along several dimensions. These include the incorporation of new predictors, machine learning, and new event-based landslide inventories. As a result, LHASA version 2 substantially improves on the prior performanceand introduces a probabilistic element to the global landslide nowcast. Data from the soil moisture active-passive (SMAP) satellite has been assimilated into a globally consistent data product with a latency less than 3 days, known as SMAP Level 4. In LHASA, thesedata representthe antecedent conditions prior to landslide-triggering rainfall. In some cases, soil moisture may have accumulated over aperiod of many months. The model behind SMAP Level 4 also estimates the amount of snow on the ground, which is an important factor in some landslide events. LHASA also incorporates this information as an antecedent condition that modulates the response torainfall. Slope, lithology, and active faults were also used as predictor variables. These factors can have a strong influence on where landslides initiate.LHASA relies on precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission to identify the locations where landslides are most probable. The low latency and consistent global coverage of these data make them ideal for real-time applications at continental to global scales. LHASA relies primarily on rainfall from the last 24 hours to spothazardous sites, which is rescaled by the local 99thpercentile rainfall.However, the multi-day latency of SMAP requires the use of a 2-day antecedent rainfall variable to represent the accumulation of rain between the antecedent soil moisture and current rainfall. LHASA merges these predictors with XGBoost, a commonly used machine-learning tool, relying on historical landslide inventories to develop the relationship between landslide occurrence and various risk factors. The resulting model relies heavily on current daily rainfall, but other factors also play an important role. LHASA outputsthe probability oflandslide occurrence ona grid of roughly one kilometer over all continents from 60 North to 60 South latitude. Evaluation over the period 2019-2020 showsthat LHASA version 2 doubles the accuracy of the global landslide nowcast without increasing the global false alarm rate. LHASA also identifies the areas where the human exposure to landslide hazard is most intense. Landslide hazard is divided into 4 levels: minimal, low, moderate, and high. Next, the number of persons and the length of major roads (primary and secondary roads)within each of these areas is calculated for every second-level administrative district (county). These results can be viewedthrough a web portal hosted at the Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition, users can download daily hazard and exposure data.LHASAversion 2uses machine learning and satellite data to identify areas of probable landslide hazard within hours of heavy rainfall. Itsglobal maps are significantly more accurate, and it now includes rapid estimates of exposed populations and infrastructure. In addition, a forecast mode will be implemented soon.

Thomas Stanley↗

NASA NTRS2018

Characterization of On-Orbit GPS Transmit Antenna Patterns for Space Users

The GPS Antenna Characterization Experiment (GPS ACE) has made extensive observations of GPS L1 signals received at geosynchronous (GEO) altitude, with the objective of developing comprehensive models of the signal levels and signal performance in the GPS transmit antenna side lobes. The experiment was originally motivated by the fact that data on the characteristics and performance of the GPS signals available in GEO and other high Earth orbits was limited. The lack of knowledge of the power and accuracy of the side lobe signals on-orbit added risk to missions seeking to employ the side lobes to meet navigation requirements or improve performance. The GPS ACE Project lled that knowledge gap through a collaboration between The Aerospace Corporation and NASA Goddard Space Fight Center to collect and analyze observations from GPS side lobe transmissions to a satellite at GEO using a highly-sensitive GPS receiver installed at the ground station. The GPS ACE architecture has been in place collecting observations of the GPS constellation with extreme sensitivity for several years. This sensitivity combined with around-the-clock, all-in-view processing enabled full azimuthal coverage of the GPS transmit gain patterns over time to angles beyond 90 degrees off-boresight. Results discussed in this paper include the reconstructed transmit gain patterns, with comparisons to available pre-fight gain measurements from the GPS vehicle contractors. For GPS blocks with extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results show remarkable agreement with ground based measurements. For blocks without extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results provide the only existing assessments of the full transmit gain patterns. The paper also includes results of pseudorange deviation analysis to assess systematic errors associated with GPS side lobe signals.

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DOE OSTI2022

Trends in HPV- and non-HPV-associated vulvar cancer incidence, United States, 2001–2017

Vulvar cancer incidence has been rising in recent years, possibly due to increasing exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV). We assessed incidence rates of HPV-associated and non-HPV-associated vulvar cancers diagnosed from 2001 to 2017 in the United States (US). Using population-based cancer registry data covering 99% of the US population, incidence rates were calculated and stratified by age, race/ethnicity, stage, geographic region, and histology. The average annual percent change in incidence per year were calculated using joinpoint regression. From 2001 to 2017, the incidence of HPV-associated vulvar cancers increased by 1.2% per year, most notably among women who were aged 50–59 years (2.6%), 60–69 years (2.4%), and ≥ 70 years (0.9%); of White (1.5%) and Black (1.1%) race; diagnosed at an early (1.3%) and late (1.8%) stage; and living in the Midwest (1.9%), Northeast (1.4%), and South (1.2%). Incidence increased each year for HPV-associated histologic subtypes including keratinizing (4.7%), non-keratinizing (6.0%), and basaloid (3.1%) squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs), while decreases were found in warty (2.7%) and microinvasive (5.5%) SCCs. HPV-associated vulvar cancer incidence increased overall and among women aged over 50 years while remaining stable among women younger than 50 years. Furthermore, the overall incidence for non-HPV-associated cancers was stable. Continued surveillance of HPV-associated cancers will allow us to monitor future trends as HPV vaccination coverage increases in the US.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗