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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

The Abundances of F, Cl, and H2O in 4Vesta from Eucrites

The abundance and distribution of magmatic volatiles (i.e., H, C, N, F, S, and Cl) within the silicate portion of a differentiated planetary body has important consequences on its thermochemical evolution. However, the abundances of magmatic volatiles within differentiated bodies are difficult to quantify, and they are often depleted by varying degrees relative to CI chondrites. The mechanisms of depletion are not well constrained and could relate to intrinsic volatile depletion of the building blocks that formed the bodies, high temperature processes that result from accretion, post-accretion loss through parent body geological processes and large-scale impacts, and/or redistribution within a parent body through processes like core formation [1–4]. In the present study, we aim to constrain the abundances of F, Cl, and H2O in eucrites to better understand the magnitude of volatile depletion on 4Vesta. To accomplish this objective, we report electron microprobe analyses of apatite from seven unbrecciated, non-cumulate eucrites (i.e., CMS 04049,GRA 98098, LEW 88010, MAC 02522, MAC 041169,QUE 94484, and QUE 97053) and two monomict, non-cumulate eucrites (i.e., Berthoud and Stannern). In combination with previously published data on eucrite-hosted apatite, we determine Cl/F and H2O/F ratios in bulk rock eucrites through the application of apatite-based melt hygrometry and chlorometry [e.g., 5–7].Additionally, we estimate the bulk rock abundances of F in six non-cumulate eucrites (i.e., GRA 98098, MAC041169, PCA 91078, QUE 97053, Stannern, and Berthoud), which we combine with previously published bulk rock F data on non-cumulate eucrites[8] to constrain the abundances of F, Cl, and H2O in 4Vesta using appropriately paired volatile/refractory element ratios for F, followed by Cl/F and H2O/F ratios for Cl and H2O, respectively.

F M McCubbin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the impacts of Variable Message Signs on Airport Curbside Performance Using Microsimulation

Curbs play a vital role in facilitating vehicle access and egress for individuals at airports. Inefficiently allocating this resource hinders airport accessibility and productivity, resulting in congestion, longer travel times, and increased pollution. As airport demand fluctuates throughout the day and grows over time, airports face intensified curbside pressure. Yet, curb management research is significantly less robust at airports than in urban areas. Given the unbalanced nature of airport demand—riders tend to arrive simultaneously at specific entrances at certain hours—Variable Message Sign (VMS) arises as a cost-effective technology to divert vehicles from congested to underutilized curbs. Still, VMS implementation faces a significant challenge. Historically, airports have managed VMS heuristically and by intuition rather than an evidence-based approach. This research investigates the impacts of implementing VMS on curb performance at airports. By considering different driver compliance rates (DCR), we aim to determine when the sign should be turned on and off to diverge traffic to avoid undesired externalities while enhancing curb performance. Using a validated agent-based microsimulation model, VISSIM, we analyzed the Seattle-Tacoma (SeaTac) Airport as a case study. We modeled sixteen VMS management scenarios and a baseline where the message sign is not displayed, diverging vehicles between the departures and arrivals access levels at four different moments (early morning, morning, afternoon, and late night). We quantified the effects of VMS using seven metrics, including curb productivity index (CPI), curb accessibility (CA), queue length, queue duration, delay, vehicle counts, and emissions. The results of each scenario were compared against the baseline using absolute and relative changes and Repeated Measures ANOVA. Overall, VMS improved curb performance and traffic conditions at the airport, reducing emissions by 14.8% to 8.9%. Moreover, significant reductions in queue length (1,150 ft to 100 ft) and duration (15 to 144 minutes) were observed in the sending link under all VMS policies. However, impacts on the receiving link varied based on congestion, with significant increases in queue duration (9.8 to 24 min) when congested but no substantial changes in free flow. Notably, diverging vehicles to congested links resulted in non-significant results, and activating late and deactivating late VMS affected curb productivity (-5.8% to -61.4%), curb accessibility (-16.5% to -25.8%), cumulative counts (-33.4% to -59.4%), and vehicle delay (95.98% to 594.3%). Activating VMS before congestion begins in the sending link and deactivating before a queue forms in the receiving link yield the most significant improvements: 8.1% to 10.1% in CPI, 9.4% to9.6% in CA, -29.3% to -77.9% in total delay, -11.6% to -13.9% in total emissions, and 101% to 103% in cumulative counts. As the analysis was made with a wide range of time periods, access levels, driver compliance rates, and scenarios, we believe our findings can provide valuable insights into how airports should manage VMS. Our work introduces a novel approach to the scientific airport literature, as some of our metrics were previously unexplored. Additionally, we propose a methodology that other airports can adopt to maximize their curb performance.

Gutierrez, Jorge D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of DORISx Post Seismic Deformation and Seasonal Corrections on the DPOD2020 Solution

As one of the tracking systems used for the altimeter missions (such as TOPEX/Poseidon, Envisat, Jason-1/-2/-3, CryoSat-2, Saral/AltiKa, Sentinel-3A/-3B, HY-2A/C/D, Jason-CS/Sentinel-6A, SWOT), the position of the DORIS tracking stations provides a fundamental reference for the estimation of the precise orbits and so, by extension is fundamental for the quality of the altimeter data analysis and derived products. Due to the time evolution of the DORIS ground network, stations included in ITRF2020 may have been decommissioned and stations that were added to the tracking network after 2021.0 are, by definition, not part of ITRF2020. Therefore, to satisfy operational requirements for precise orbit determination and routine delivery of geodetic products, the International DORIS Service maintains the DORIS terrestrial reference frame for Precise Orbit Determination (DPOD) solutions. Since 2016, the DPOD products are computed by the IDS Combination Center (CC) as a DORIS cumulative position and linear velocity solution aligned to the latest available ITRF and using the latest IDS weekly combined series. Mid-2023, the IDS CC started the computation of the second version of the DPOD2020 based on the IDS 20 weekly solutions from 1993.0 to 2023.0. With that new solution, the IDS CC will include Post Seismic Deformation (PSD) corrections for some DORIS sites such as Socorro Island. These DPOD PSD corrections are determined from the analysis of DORIS coordinate time series only. The second version will also include optional annual and semi-annual station corrections. The presentation will describe the analysis used for extracting the PSD and seasonal DORIS station corrections, compare such corrections to those derived for ITRF2020, and evaluate the impact these new corrections have on station positioning and satellite POD.

Guilhem Moreaux↗
DOE OSTI2024

Critical Materials Institute (CMI) Year 10 Cumulative Report

This 40-page technical report summarizes the achievements and success of the first 10 years of the Critical Materials Institute (CMI). CMI is an Energy Innovation Hub created by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) that focuses on developing the technical innovations needed to address the supply chain of critical materials important to clean energy technologies. The report describe the CMI’s unique implementation of the Energy Innovation Hub model including sections on situational analysis and approach; critical materials challenges and technical achievements; and diverse impacts of the first 10 years of operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of mobility data to build contact networks for COVID-19

As social distancing policies and recommendations went into effect in response to COVID-19, people made rapid changes to the places they visit. These changes are clearly seen in mobility data, which records foot traffic using location trackers in cell phones. While mobility data is often used to extract the number of customers that visit a particular business or business type, it is the frequency and duration of concurrent occupancy at those sites that governs transmission. Understanding the way people interact at different locations can help target policies and inform contact tracing and prevention strategies. This paper outlines methods to extract interactions from mobility data and build networks that can be used in epidemiological models. Several measures of interaction are extracted: interactions between people, the cumulative interactions for a single person, and cumulative interactions that occur at particular businesses. Network metrics are computed to identify structural trends which show clear changes based on the timing of stay-at-home orders. Measures of interaction and structural trends in the resulting networks can be used to better understand potential spreading events, the percent of interactions that can be classified as close contacts, and the impact of policy choices to control transmission.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of the Three Gorges Dam on riverbed scour and siltation of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

Abstract This study investigated the influence of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on the evolution of nearby channels in the Yangtze River (Changjiang River) system in order to better understand the environmental impact of large‐scale reservoir operations. From 2003 to 2017, the amounts of runoff and sediment transport in the Yangtze River were reduced by 3.3–14.5% and 67.8–92.7%, respectively, relative to 1955–2002 before the TGD was operational. Topographic measurements of the middle reaches (Yichang to Hukou) of the Yangtze River were analyzed from 1975 to 2017, during which time the cumulative erosion of the flood channel was 22.78 × 10 8 m 3 , and the dry channel accounted for 90.3% of the erosion. Following commissioning of the TGD, the scouring intensity of the sandy gravel section near the dam initially increased then decreased, whereas the scouring intensity of sandy sections away from the dam continued to increase. Beaches on convex banks of curved sections were scoured, and deep channels on concave banks became silted. In braided sections, the braids tended to shrink, and the diversion ratio of the main branch during dry seasons reduced, resulting in frequent branch alternation. Compared to changes in the downstream river channels of other large reservoirs worldwide, scouring from the TGD is extensive. The findings of this study are significant for river channel regulation and waterway planning in the Yangtze River and worldwide.

Yang, Yunping↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parametric and sensitivity analysis of a PCM-integrated wall for optimal thermal load modulation in lightweight buildings

Load modulation in buildings is becoming increasingly important due to growing disparity in energy demand during peak and off-peak hours. Integrating phase change material (PCM) in building envelopes and using a controlled precooling strategy can provide substantial thermal load modulation; however, it may greatly increase the total energy use. Previous studies have employed PCM in building envelopes primarily for energy savings and, to some extent, peak load shedding and shifting. However, the load modulation capacity of a PCM-integrated envelope has not been well explored in the literature. In this study, we perform an extensive parametric and sensitivity analysis on PCM-integrated lightweight building walls and examine the combinatory effects of various PCM parameters on thermal load modulation and wall-related heat gains in buildings. Using numerical simulations, we investigate eight PCM parameters: PCM location in the wall, transition temperature, thickness, latent heat, transition range, density, specific heat, and thermal conductivity. Here, we evaluate their impact and relative importance to achieve maximum load modulation in buildings without compromising occupants’ thermal comfort or total energy use. The results show that the optimized PCM proposed in this study can completely invert the transient heat gain profile of the wall, providing up to 70% reduction of wall-related heat gain during peak hours without a major increase in the cumulative heat gain.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1982

Fragmentation of ice by low velocity impact

Low-velocity impact experiments (0.14 to 1 km/s) carried out in polycrystalline water ice targets at 257 and 81 K reveal interactions which are assigned to four fragmentation classes: cratering, erosion, disruption, and total fragmentation. The specific kinetic energies for the transitions between these classes are found to be about one to two orders of magnitude below those for silicate rocks. The mass vs. cumulative number distribution of fragments in the experiments is described by a simple power law, similar to that observed in fragmented rocks both in the laboratory and in nature. The logarithmic slopes of cumulative number vs. fragment weight range from -0.9 to -1.8; they decrease with increasing projectile energy and are approximately independent of target temperature. The shapes of fragments resulting from erosion and disruption of ice targets are found to be significantly less spherical for 257 K targets than for 81 K targets. Fragment sphericity increases with increasing projectile energy at 257 K; however, no similar trend is observed for 81 K ice.

Lange, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Feldspathic Clasts in Yamato 86032: Remnants of the Lunar Crust with Implications for its Formation and Impact History

Yamato (Y)-86032 is a relatively large, feldspathic lunar highlands meteorite composed of a variety of highland lithologies. Low bulk contents of Th and Fe indicated that it came from a region of the moon far distant from the Procellarum KREEP Terrain (PKT) and the Apollo landing sites, perhaps from the farside. A large (5.2 x 3.6 cm) slab was cut from Y-86032 . We report results from coordinated textural, mineralogical-petrological, chemical, and isotopic studies of lithologies identified in the slab, emphasizing the results of Ar-39/Ar-40, Rb-Sr, and Sm-Nd chronological studies as well as Sm-isotopic studies. These studies characterize the history of Y-86032 and its precursors in the farside mega-regolith, leading to inferences about the formation and evolution of the lunar crust. Textural studies establish that the Y-86032 breccia is composed of a variety of highland components including feldspathic breccias, and other components, such as possible VLT mare basalts. Impact melt veins smoothly abut the other lithologies. Thus, Y-86032 experienced at least two impact events. These impacts occurred on a predominantly feldspathic protolith, which formed 4.43+/-0.03 Ga ago as determined from a Sm-Nd isochron for mineral clasts separated from the two dominant lithologies. Initial Nd-143/Nd-144 in the protolith at that time was -0.64+/-0.13 epsilon-units below Nd-143/Nd-144 in reservoirs having chondritic Sm/Nd ratios, consistent with prior fractionation of mafic cumulates from the LMO. Although the mineral chemistry of these clasts differs in detail from that of minerals in Apollo 16 Ferroan Anorthosites (FANs), the Rb-Sr studies establish that the initial Sr-87/Sr-86 in them was the same as in the FANs.

Nyquist, L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Buried and Visible Impact Basin Distribution on Mars: Comparison with Magnetization, Gravity and Crustal Thickness Models

The large population of buried impact basins found in MOLA elevation data on Mars provides compelling evidence for a pre-Noachian crust below the oldest visible Early Noachian surface units, and lowland crust below the younger plains that is Early Noachian in age, older than much of the visible highlands, but not as old as the buried pre-Noachian highlands. The large (D greater than 200 km) buried basins are suggested by Quasi-Circular Depressions (QCDs) that are not apparent in image data, and include features up to 3000 lun diameter in both the lowlands (Utopia) and highlands (a newly found "Ares Basin"). There are about a dozen QCDs larger than 1000 km diameter. We have placed these large features in a relative age sequence based on superimposed smaller QCD. Only the youngest and most obvious of these (Hellas, Argyre, Isidis) lack magnetic anomalies within their main rings. These all have an N(200) cumulative crater density of less than 2.5. Somewhat older lowland-making basins (Utopia, Chryse, Acidalia) with an N(200) age of approximately 3.0, have weak magnetic anomalies, and the oldest, most subdued basins (including Ares) with N(200) greater than 3.5 have many strong magnetic anomalies within their main ring. These older basins likely formed before the main magnetic field died. We have compared our inventory of large QCDs with the distribution of gravity anomalies and with a crustal thickness model which shows many roughly circular areas of thinner crust completely or partly surrounded by narrow regions of thicker crust. These have the structure expected for impact basins, and many of them do correspond to the visible or buried QCDs we previously identified. But there are cases where the crustal thickness feature is offset from the QCD found in topography alone, and there are also several, sometimes large examples of such features which do not coincide with QCDs previously identified. For example, we find several likely buried basins revealed in the crustal thickness data in the Arcadia and Amazonis regions which we did not previously identify, including several features in the 600-1200 km diameter range.

Frey, Herbert↗
NASA NTRS1982

SNC meteorites - Evidence against an asteroidal origin

About 1.3 billion years ago, on one or more distant planetary bodies, silicate melts formed and produced cumulate rocks which eventually made their way to earth. Nine of these rocks have been recovered. Three distinct groups are involved, including shergottites, nakhlites, and chassignites (abbreviated as SNC). The young crystallization ages and other chemical features of SNC meteorites have prompted several workers to suggest that the specimens may be samples of igneous rock, ejected from the surface of Mars during an impact event. Others have rejected the Martian origin of SNC meteorites in favor of a more traditional asteroidal parent body. The present investigation shows that the petrologic, geochemical, and isotopic evidence is inconsistent with an asteroidal origin for SNC meteorites. It is found that the characteristics of SNC meteorites argue convincingly against their origin in a planetary object as small as the largest asteroid. That these meteorites may be fragments of the Martian surface still remains the most likely possibility.

Ashwal, L. D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of Recycling Discharged Microreactor Heavy Metal in Light Water and Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors: A Neutronics Analysis

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) offer unique advantages, such as rapid deployment, potability, low maintenance requirements, and operational flexibility. Their compact size makes them a promising solution for decentralized power generation, particularly in remote areas, military bases, and disaster-stricken regions. However, MRs face challenges, including unutilized fissile material at the end of life, economic inefficiency, increased heavy metal (HM) waste complicating disposal, and the accumulation of plutonium (Pu) with high 239 Pu concentrations raising proliferation risks. Here, this study investigated the neutronics feasibility of a novel three-stage fuel cycle where discharged HM from MRs is recycled and burned in light water reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors. This approach converts discharged HM into valuable fuel, enhancing the efficiency of MR deployments while improving the safeguardability of their final waste products. Neutronics analysis demonstrated that the safety characteristics of reactor designs in each stage were minimally impacted by the proposed cycle. For two representative MR designs, a fast-spectrum MR with solid pellet fuel and a thermal-spectrum MR with TRISO (TRi-structural-ISOtropic) fuel compacts, the proposed fuel cycle reduced the uranium disposal mass flow rate by ~60%, decreased the 235 U enrichment of the discharge fuel to ~1 wt%, eliminated plutonium disposal, and increased the cumulative fuel burnup to ~580 gigawatt-day per metric ton of initial heavy metal (GWd/t-iHM) or 60% fissions per initial metal atom. Despite the significant differences between the two MR designs, the performance and infrastructure requirements of the developed fuel cycles were remarkably similar, indicating its generalizability to a broader class of MRs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

GHG policy impacts for Seattle’s buildings: targets, timing, and scope

Many US cities are addressing climate change by setting goals to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by a specified amount within a specified time period. In order to achieve these goals, reducing emissions from existing buildings is crucial. Many cities are passing legislation to target existing buildings through benchmarking, auditing, retuning, or energy or emissions performance standards. As cities design legislation, they must consider the timing of the policies, how to prioritize building types and sizes, and how these design decisions will impact the city’s emissions. This paper addresses these questions for one particular US city: Seattle, Washington. A model of Seattle’s building stock was created with benchmarking and tax assessor data. It was then used to predict GHG emissions reductions due to different policy implementations for existing commercial and multifamily buildings. Key findings are: (1) the proposed emissions policy is expected to reduce cumulative emissions from buildings by 19% between 2020 and 2050; (2) delaying the implementation of the policy by five years could limit savings to 12%; and (3) including smaller buildings in the policy could increase savings to 34%. The lessons learned and how this can be used by other cities are discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Timing, Abundance, and Spatial Extent of Initial Magmatism on the Moon Explained By Cumulate Mantle Overturn

We have recently quantified the timing, abundance, and spatial extent of lower mantle melting induced by cumulate overturn on the Moon through a series of 3D geodynamical models. Our dynamical modeling indicates that overturn of thin (~30-50 km) and weak ilmenite-bearing cumulates (IBC) triggers a rapid, short-lived, and widespread period of lower mantle melting which reproduces the key geochronological, volume, and spatial characteristics associated with the onset of secondary magmatism on the Moon (Figs. 1,2), and without energy contributions from KREEP (potassium, rare earth elements, phosphorus, radiogenic U, Th). Within the guiding paradigms of global differentiation via magma ocean crystallization and subsequent cumulate mantle overturn, our model provides explanation for near contemporaneous primary and secondary crust production constrained by geochronology of returned lunar samples and meteorites. In this abstract, we discuss our results in context with several intricacies of lunar chronology including models of a long-lived magma ocean, the hypothesis that mantle overturn was induced by the giant South Pole-Aitken basin forming impact, and ancient lunar zircon.

T. C. Prissel↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parallel evaluation of alternative skin barrier models and excised human skin for dermal absorption studies in vitro

Skin permeation is a primary consideration in the safety assessment of cosmetic ingredients, topical drugs, and human users handling veterinary medicinal products. While excised human skin (EHS) remains the ‘gold standard’ for in vitro permeation testing (IVPT) studies, unreliable supply and high cost motivate the search for alternative skin barrier models. In this study, a standardized dermal absorption testing protocol was developed to evaluate the suitability of alternative skin barrier models to predict skin absorption in humans. Under this protocol, side-by-side assessments of a commercially available reconstructed human epidermis (RhE) model (EpiDerm-200-X, MatTek), a synthetic barrier membrane (Strat-M, Sigma-Aldrich), and EHS were performed. The skin barrier models were mounted on Franz diffusion cells and the permeation of caffeine, salicylic acid, and testosterone was quantified. Transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and histology of the biological models were also compared. EpiDerm-200-X exhibited native human epidermis-like morphology, including a characteristic stratum corneum, but had an elevated TEWL as compared to EHS. The mean 6 h cumulative permeation of a finite dose (6 nmol/cm2) of caffeine and testosterone was highest in EpiDerm-200-X, followed by EHS and Strat-M. Salicylic acid permeated most in EHS, followed by EpiDerm-200-X and Strat-M. Altogether, evaluating novel alternative skin barrier models in the manner outlined herein has the potential to reduce the time from basic science discovery to regulatory impact.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Mineralogical and chemical properties of the lunar regolith

The composition of lunar regolith and its attendant properties are discussed. Tables are provided listing lunar minerals, the abundance of plagioclase feldspar, pyroxene, olivine, and ilmenite in lunar materials, typical compositions of common lunar minerals, and cumulative grain-size distribution for a large number of lunar soils. Also provided are charts on the chemistry of breccias, the chemistry of lunar glass, and the comparative chemistry of surface soils for the Apollo sites. Lunar agglutinates, constructional particles made of lithic, mineral, and glass fragments welded together by a glassy matrix containing extremely fine-grained metallic iron and formed by micrometeoric impacts at the lunar surface, are discussed. Crystalline, igneous rock fragments, breccias, and lunar glass are examined. Volatiles implanted in lunar materials and regolith maturity are also addressed.

Mckay, David S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Net Carbon Flux due to Deforestation and Forest Re-Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Analysis using a Process-Based Model

We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).

Hirsch, A. I.↗