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At least 379 records · Page 21

Lower Snake River Dams Contribution to Grid Services

Hydroelectric generation and water storage have long been components of the clean energy mix, providing both reliable steady output and operational flexibility. As variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar increasingly replace traditional generation, the role of all flexible resources—including hydropower—in balancing supply and demand continues to evolve. This study examined the contribution of the Lower Snake River (LSR) Dam plants to Bonneville Power Administration grid services in maintaining power system reliability within the Western Interconnection. By analyzing publicly available data, the study evaluated various reliability services through performance metrics including energy capacity, balancing and ramping, voltage and reactive power support, frequency response, and transmission impact. Results indicated that the LSR plants deliver services as expected based on their size, contributing to the balancing process, ramping capabilities, and operational reserves, particularly during peak load conditions and weather events, while also providing measurable frequency and voltage support to the grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Size dependence in chord characteristics from simulated and observed continental shallow cumulus

Abstract. In this study we compare long-term Doppler and Raman lidar observations against a full month of large eddy simulations of continental shallow cumulus clouds. The goal is to evaluate if the simulations can reproduce the mean observed vertical velocity and moisture structure of cumulus clouds and their associated subcloud circulations, as well as to establish if these properties depend on the size of the cloud. We propose methods to compare continuous chords of cloud detected from Doppler and Raman lidars with equivalent chords derived from 1D and 3D model output. While the individual chords are highly variable, composites of thousands of observed and millions of simulated chords contain a clear signal. We find that the simulations underestimate cloud size and fraction but successfully reproduce the observed structure of vertical velocity and moisture perturbations. There is a clear scaling of vertical velocity and moisture anomalies below the chords with chord size, but the moisture anomalies are only 1 %–2 % higher than the horizontal mean values. The differences between the observations and simulations are smaller than the difference in sampling the modeled chords in time or space. The shape of the vertical velocity and moisture anomalies from cloud chords sampled spatially from 3D model snapshots is almost perfectly symmetric. In contrast, the chords sampled temporally from the lidar observations and 1D model output have a marked asymmetry, with stronger updrafts and higher moisture anomalies occurring earlier on.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A neural network for beam background decomposition in Belle II at SuperKEKB

Here, we describe a neural network for predicting the background hit rate in the Belle II detector produced by the SuperKEKB electron-positron collider. The neural network, BGNet, learns to predict the individual contributions of different physical background sources, such as beam-gas scattering or continuous top-up injections into the collider, to Belle II sub-detector rates. The samples for learning are archived 1 Hz time series of diagnostic variables from the SuperKEKB collider subsystems and measured hit rates of Belle II used as regression targets. We test the learned model by predicting detector hit rates on archived data from different run periods not used during training. We show that a feature attribution method can help interpret the source of changes in the background level over time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates Using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning

River sediment microbial respiration is a key indicator of ecosystem functioning and the biogeochemical fluxes across this critical zone link surface and subsurface waters. As such, there is tremendous interest in measuring and mapping these respiration rates. Respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive; there is limited data available to the community. An open science, collaborative initiative is collecting samples for respiration rate analysis and multi-scale metadata; this evolving data set is being used for making machine learning (ML) predictions at unsampled sites to help inform continued community engagement. However, it is a challenge to find an optimum configuration for ML models to work with this feature-rich (i.e., 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we present results from a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: (a) a stacked ensemble of models that automatically optimizes hyperparameters and manages the training of many models and (b) feature permutation importance to detect the most important features in the models. The major elements of this workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. The models developed here predict that sediment organic matter chemistry is one of the most important features for predicting sediment respiration rate. Other larger-scale, important features fall into the categories of climatic, ecological, geological, and fluvial settings. Leveraging these larger-scale features to generate data-driven estimates of river sediment respiration rates reveals spatially consistent but heterogeneous patterns across the river network of the Columbia River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring leakage in dielectric films via automated experiments in scanning probe microscopy

Here electronic conduction pathways in dielectric thin films are explored using automated experiments in scanning probe microscopy (SPM). In this study, we use large field of view scanning to identify the position of localized conductive spots and develop an SPM workflow to probe their dynamic behavior at higher spatial resolution as a function of time, voltage, and scanning process in an automated fashion. Using this approach, we observe the variable behaviors of the conductive spots in a 20-nm-thick ferroelectric Hf 0.54 Zr 0.48 O 2 film, where conductive spots disappear and reappear during continuous scanning. There are also fresh conductive spots that develop during scanning. The automated workflow is universal and can be integrated into a wide range of microscopy techniques, including SPM, electron microscopy, optical microscopy, and chemical imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interannual precipitation controls on soil CO 2 fluxes in high elevation conifer and aspen forests

Abstract Long-term soil CO 2 emission measurements are necessary for detecting trends and interannual variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Such records are becoming increasingly valuable as ecosystems experience altered environmental conditions associated with climate change. From 2013 to 2021, we continuously measured soil CO 2 concentrations in the two dominant high elevation forest types, mixed conifer and aspen, in the upper Colorado River basin. We quantified the soil CO 2 flux during the summer months, and found that the mean and total CO 2 flux in both forests was related to the prior winter’s snowfall and current summer’s rainfall, with greater sensitivity to rainfall. We observed a decline in surface soil CO 2 production, which we attributed to warming and a decrease in amount and frequency of summer rains. Our results demonstrate strong precipitation control on the soil CO 2 flux in mountainous regions, a finding which has important implications for carbon cycling under future environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

It's only natural: Plant respiration in unmanaged systems

Abstract Respiration plays a key role in the terrestrial carbon cycle and is a fundamental metabolic process in all plant tissues and cells. We review respiration from the perspective of plants that grow in their natural habitat and how it is influenced by wide-ranging elements at different scales, from metabolic substrate availability to shifts in climate. Decades of field-based measurements have honed our understanding of the biological and environmental controls on leaf, root, stem, and whole-organism respiration. Despite this effort, there remain gaps in our knowledge within and across species and ecosystems, especially in more challenging-to-measure tissues like roots. Recent databases of respiration rates and associated leaf traits from species representing diverse biomes, plant functional types, and regional climates have allowed for a wider-lens view at modeling this important CO2 flux. We also re-analyze published data sets to show that maximum leaf respiration rates (R max) in species from around the globe are related both to leaf economic traits and environmental variables (precipitation and air temperature), but that root respiration does not follow the same latitudinal trends previously published for leaf data. We encourage the ecophysiological community to continue to expand their study of plant respiration in tissues that are difficult to measure and at the whole plant and ecosystem levels to address outstanding questions in the field.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Future climate change in the Agulhas system and its associated impact on South African rainfall

South African climate variability has been linked to changes in both the Agulhas system and external forcing (i.e. CO 2 and ozone). We analysed future climate change in the Agulhas system volume transport and its associated impacts on South Africa’s precipitation using the Community Climate System Model version 4 as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5. Output from one historical and three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were examined to project various climate storylines. We found that the Agulhas Current volume transport decreases across all three scenarios and that the current displays a strong baroclinic component with an increase in transport at the surface and decrease at intermediate depths. Agulhas leakage was found to increase with historical emissions. Additionally, an east-west dipole pattern for convective precipitation was found over South Africa, with an increase over the eastern region related to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease in the western region linked to the location of Hadley cell edge latitude. Moving into the 21st century, future predictions in regional climate variability are shown to be dependent on the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and are extremely important for South Africa, a region prone to drought and flooding and home to a large population dependent on rain-fed agriculture.Significance:Future climate variability in the Agulhas system and South African region is heavily dependent on changes in external forcing.The Agulhas Current volume transport decreases as the greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and a strong baroclinic component is found with an increase in transport at the surface and a decrease at the intermediate depths.A strong east-west dipole precipitation pattern is found over South Africa with the increase in the eastern region related to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the decrease in the western region related to the location of the Hadley cell edge latitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Model of Large Scale Electrochemical Direct Ocean Capture Under Variable Power

Since limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C by 2100 will not only require an energy transition but also billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal per year, it is essential to expand these efforts. This can be done offshore via electrochemical direct ocean capture (eChem DOC) which extracts CO2 from seawater that can later be stored underground or converted to products. Deployments of eChem DOC will be powered by renewable energy and therefore need to function with variable power inputs. This project aims to support future large-scale deployments by developing a model of eChem DOC operation, informed by industry and literature, and assessing its performance under variable power and varying designs. Initial analysis suggests that discretizing the eChem system has a higher impact on increasing overall capture than storing the chemical solutions to continue capture during periods of lower power availability, but this is likely situation dependent. Future work will use more realistic power profiles.

direct ocean capture↗

Modeling Continuous Online Refueling with SCALE 6.3.1 and Serpent-2 in the EIRENE Novel Molten Salt Reactor Design

The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) is a Generation IV advanced fission reactor design in which the coolant, and in some cases the fuel itself, is in the form of liquid molten alkali-halide salts with a fluoride or chloride ionic base. In liquid-fueled MSRs, reactor refueling may be performed online, where fresh fuel salt is added to the core during operation without the need for shutdown periods. Refueling for these reactor designs is typically modeled using either a batch or continuous refueling approach, both of which can be simulated with the SCALE 6.3.1 and Serpent-2 code systems. However, the specific manner in which they are implemented can vary depending upon the desired rate of refueling, whether the refueling rate is constant or variable, and consideration of salt drainage for systems where the in-core salt volume is kept constant. In a novel MSR fuel cycle concept termed the “Sourdough” fuel cycle, fuel salt is allowed to “grow” within the core, with excess salt either being transferred to an external holding tank to maintain a constant core volume or diverted to an upper plenum within the core to allow for volume growth. In this work, continuous refueling was modeled in a thermal-spectrum, LEU-fueled, small MSR design operating with the Sourdough fuel cycle using the SCALE 6.3.1 and Serpent-2 codes. Two different continuous refueling approaches were simulated, with the performance of each being compared to determine which is most suitable for use with the Sourdough fuel cycle concept.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Influence of weather on gobbling activity of male wild turkeys

Gobbling activity of Eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris; hereafter, turkeys) has been widely studied, focusing on drivers of daily variation. Weather variables are widely believed to influence gobbling activity, but results across studies are contradictory and often equivocal, leading to uncertainty in the relative contribution of weather variables to daily fluctuations in gobbling activity. Previous works relied on road-based auditory surveys to collect gobbling data, which limits data consistency, duration, and quantity due to logistical difficulties associated with human observers and restricted sampling frames. Development of new methods using autonomous recording units (ARUs) allows researchers to collect continuous data in more locations for longer periods of time, providing the opportunity to delve into factors influencing daily gobbling activity. We used ARUs from 1 March to 31 May to detail gobbling activity across multiple study sites in the southeastern United States during 2014–2018. We used state-space modeling to investigate the effects of weather variables on daily gobbling activity. Our findings suggest rainfall, greater wind speeds, and greater temperatures negatively affected gobbling activity, whereas increasing barometric pressure positively affected gobbling activity. Therefore, when using daily gobbling activity to make inferences relative to gobbling chronology, reproductive phenology, and hunting season frameworks, stakeholders should recognize and consider the potential influences of extended periods of inclement weather.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Detailed space–time variations of the seismic response of the shallow crust to small earthquakes from analysis of dense array data

SUMMARY We compute high-resolution space–time variations of subsurface seismic properties from autocorrelation functions (ACF’s) of noise and local earthquakes, recorded by the Sage Brush Flat dense array deployed around the Clark branch of the San Jacinto fault. The resolved temporal changes are referred to as apparent velocity changes because they reflect both nonlinear response and variations of material properties such as cracking and damage. Apparent velocity changes are estimated at four frequency bands (10–15, 10–20, 15–30 and 20–40 Hz) for two local earthquake data sets. In one analysis, ACF’s from P- and S-wave windows of 31 small events with magnitudes below 3.1 are used to compute the apparent velocity variations with respect to the mean ACF of each phase, and we also use the mean ACF of noise data as reference to estimate the changes. In a further analysis, the temporal evolution of properties is computed using moving time windows in continuous waveform over one-hour long data with noise and earthquake signals. The apparent velocity changes and recovery times are frequency dependent and present a strong spatial variability across the array. The resolved changes are larger and recovery time shorter with data associated with higher frequencies. At frequencies larger than 15 Hz, and using the mean ACF of noise data as a reference, the apparent average velocity changes across the array during the passage of the P and S waves from the small local events are 2.5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. The apparent velocity changes decrease by one order of magnitude when the earthquake data are used as a reference. The relatively large changes in response to very low ground motion have important implications on nonlinear processes involving degradation and healing of the subsurface material during common earthquake shaking.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

A protocol and analysis of year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models and beyond

We propose a protocol to evaluate and analyze year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). The proposed protocol complements an earlier 40-day simulation protocol under the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains) project to allow the analysis of the seasonal cycle and associated climatic relevant phenomena. This intercomparison aims to reveal how GSRMs, which can simulate mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the global domain, reproduce atmospheric large-scale structures related to convection beyond month-long simulations. The intercomparison for one-year simulations is conducted by either atmosphere-only models or atmosphere–ocean coupled models with atmospheric horizontal mesh sizes less than 5 km. We recommend the continuous four seasons from March 2020 to February 2021 as a target period for the intercomparison but with options for many groups to join more flexibly. The output variables are collected at 0.25° resolution, and archives of a small set of native grid variables are encouraged to analyze tropical cyclones and MCSs. Through the proposed global storm-resolving simulation, we will evaluate the climatological distributions of the atmospheric large-scale circulations, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoon, midlatitude jets, their time evolution, and the upscale impacts on them. We present sample analyses from a one-year simulation using the 3.5 km mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), revealing the realistic zonal contrast of tropical precipitation, no double ITCZ structure, the reasonable midlatitude jet position and intensity but a weak bias of storm track activities, and a warm bias over the Eurasia during boreal winter. We also clarify the cross-scale interaction, such as the effects of cold pools on mean precipitation over the Maritime Continent through the precipitation diurnal cycle and the effects of resolved gravity waves on midlatitude mean flows. The proposed one-year simulation protocol is referred to as the “Sendai Protocol.” This protocol is not unique or definite for evaluating GSRMs; we prospect a hierarchical set of experiments from short-term to multi-year simulations as GSRM intercomparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The ongoing need for high-resolution regional climate models: Process understanding and stakeholder information

Regional climate modeling addresses our need to understand and simulate climatic processes and phenomena unresolved in global models. High resolution models are generally more skillful in simulating extremes, such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, and severe storms. In addition, research has shown that fine-scale features such as mountains, coastlines, lakes, irrigation, land use, and urban heat islands can substantially influence a region’s climate and its response to changing forcings. Regional climate simulations explicitly simulating convection are now being performed, providing an opportunity to illuminate new physical behavior that previously was represented by parameterizations with large uncertainties. Regional and global models are both advancing toward higher resolution, as computational capacity increases. However, the resolution and ensemble size necessary to produce a sufficient statistical sample of these processes in global models has proven too costly for contemporary supercomputing systems. Regional climate models are thus indispensable tools that complement global models for understanding regional climate variability and change, and are critical for supporting societal responses to changing climate.

Gutowski, William↗

In situ Detection of Plasma Induced Surface Interaction based on Deep Learning based Visual Diagnostics (Technical Report)

It is characteristic for many plasma devices to undergo plasma-material interaction leading to surface erosion. These processes, often not easily detectable, lead to changes in device performance and lifespan. State-of-the-art lifetime tests and wear experiments require over 1000s hours. A self-consistent model for accurately predicting the erosion's effects is not available. In situ detection of these processes is not a trivial task since the surface variations at the early stages have a micron scale. Such limitations not only restrict testing and prediction capabilities but also slow the development of new thrusters and limit mission duration. To address these challenges, an in-situ diagnostic for real-time erosion assessment has been developed, aiming to expedite lifetime testing and broaden experimental campaigns. Several works were dedicated to real-time and in situ monitoring of material erosion during plasma exposure using laser holography, microscopy, and with telemicroscopes. However, the applicability of these approaches is limited due to complexity, cost and less flexibility as they often require placing diagnostic equipment inside the vacuum chamber. In collaboration with Princeton Collaborative Research Facility (PCRF), Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL), a new diagnostic approach is developed, where geometry modifications to the ceramic channel walls were introduced that would result in accelerated channel erosion. We employed Long-distance microscope (LDM) imagery, combined with Deep-Learning based Shape from focus or depth from focus (DFF or SFF) approach, that provides an accessible and cost-effective solution. LDM employs focus variation techniques to continuously capture multiple images of the target object at distinct focal planes. DFF, an optical focus variation method, generates a 3D topographical surface depth map from a sequence of variably focused images. Combined with the developed diagnostic, this approach offers a controllable means to study erosion under accelerated conditions. In this work, we develop Neural Network-based DFF algorithm applicable for LDM data to quantitatively evaluate plasma induced surface modification from LDM data. Next, we develop Deep Learning-based super-resolution depth map image reconstruction technique to increase the resolution of depth maps obtained from DFF algorithm to improve the accuracy of erosion measurements. Thirdly, we develop several image processing techniques to remove noise and improve the quality of depth map image. Here we report the results of initial tests for this approach. An experimental setup designed and built in PPPL was employed that consists of a 3-cm gridded ion source that produces a neutralized argon beam with energies up to 600 eV. A hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) ceramic target, designed based on computational predictions, was used. Tests were conducted to reconstruct the complex geometry of the target under the lighting conditions of the operated ion source.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Leveraging concentrating solar power plant dispatchability: A review of the impacts of global market structures and policy

Concentrating solar power (CSP) integrated with thermal energy storage delivers flexible and dispatchable power, which is an increasingly valuable quality as electricity systems integrate growing penetrations of variable renewable energy. Valuing and compensating CSP's dispatchability and flexibility requires electricity market structures and policies that appropriately remunerate generation during high-value portions of the day. In this paper, we review previous analyses of CSP economics and deployment, and we find that continued CSP growth will require valuation mechanisms that appropriately compensate for CSP's flexibility during both plant design and plant operation. We then review market structures that drive CSP operations and dispatch in jurisdictions where CSP is being developed, with perspectives from Spain, Chile, Australia, Morocco, South Africa, the United States, China, and the United Arab Emirates (Dubai). Despite broad agreement that CSP's dispatchability provides value to electricity grids, countries' policies for remunerating and leveraging such dispatchability varies widely. As deployment of CSP and variable renewable energy grows, it will be increasingly important to redesign current integration policies to signal the delivery of CSP's grid services more appropriately.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Chapter 2: Evaluating a Concentrating Solar Power Plantas an Extended-Duration Peaking Resource

We explore the ability of a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant with thermal energy storage (TES) to provide peaking capacity. We focus on future power systems, wherein net load patterns may be significantly different than they are today (e.g., due to higher renewable-energy penetrations). We examine 28 locations in the southwestern United States over an 18-year period. The hourly operation of the CSP plants are simulated to determine their potential to provide energy during an eight-hour peak-load window for each day up to 365 days per year. Our result shows that for the large majority of locations and years, CSP plants with certain configurations (i.e., in terms of solar field and TES sizes) can provide nearly 100% peak-load capacity. We examine also the amount of supplemental energy (e.g.,by using natural gas as a supplemental thermal-energy source) that would be required to ensure that a CSP plant could serve the eight highest-load hours of every day of the year. We find that in most cases, a CSP plant supplemented with natural gas would require less than 5% of the fuel that is used by a natural-gas fired power plant providing the same level of reliable capacity. A series of sensitivity analyses show that these results are robust to the number of peak-load hours and days that are considered and the configuration of the CSP plant.

capacity value↗