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DOE OSTI2020

Enriched East Asian oxygen isotope of precipitation indicates reduced summer seasonality in regional climate and westerlies

Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ 18 O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18 O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18 O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ 18 O p between 18 O-enriched and 18 O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

JWST lensed quasar dark matter survey – II. Strongest gravitational lensing limit on the dark matter free streaming length to date

This is the second in a series of papers in which we use JWST Mid Infrared Instrument multiband imaging to measure the warm dust emission in a sample of 31 multiply imaged quasars, to be used as a probe of the particle nature of dark matter. We present measurements of the relative magnifications of the strongly lensed warm dust emission in a sample of nine systems. The warm dust region is compact and sensitive to perturbations by populations of haloes down to masses $\sim 10^6$ M$_{\odot }$. Using these warm dust flux-ratio measurements in combination with five previous narrow-line flux-ratio measurements, we constrain the halo mass function. In our model, we allow for complex deflector macromodels with flexible third- and fourth-order multipole deviations from ellipticity, and we introduce an improved model of the tidal evolution of subhaloes. We constrain a WDM model and find an upper limit on the half-mode mass of $10^{7.6}\, {\rm M}_\odot$ at posterior odds of 10:1. This corresponds to a lower limit on a thermally produced dark matter particle mass of 6.1 keV. This is the strongest gravitational lensing constraint to date, and comparable to those from independent probes such as the Ly $\alpha$ forest and Milky Way satellite galaxies.

dark matter↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parametrizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion-ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the 78 Kr and 124 Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the 92 Mo and 144 Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the initial state and dynamical evolution in XeXe and PbPb collisions using multiparticle cumulants

For the first time, correlations among mixed-order moments of two or three flow harmonics —( v n k , v m l ) and ( v n k , v m l , v p q ), with k, l, and q denoting the respective orders—are measured in xenon–xenon (XeXe) collisions and compared with lead–lead (PbPb) results, providing a novel probe of collective behavior in heavy ion collisions. These measurements compare a nearly spherical, doubly-magic 208 Pb nucleus to a triaxially deformed 129 Xe nucleus, emphasizing the sensitivity to initial-state geometry fluctuations arising from nuclear deformation. The dependence of these results (v n , n = 2 , 3 , 4 ) on the shape and size of the nuclear overlap region is studied. Comparisons between v 2 , v 3 , and v 4 demonstrate the importance of v 3 and v 4 in exploring the nonlinear hydrodynamic response of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) to the initial spatial anisotropy. The results constrain initial-state model parameters that influence the evolution of the QGP. The CMS detector was used to collect XeXe and PbPb data at nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energies of S N N = 5.44 and 5.36 TeV, respectively. Correlations are extracted using multiparticle mixed-harmonic cumulants (up to eight-particle cumulants) with charged particles in the pseudorapidity range |η| < 2.4 and transverse momentum range 0.5 < p T < 3 GeV/c.

CMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire

Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Vehicle Tracking with Crop-based Detection

End-to-end production of vehicle tracking data from video in real-time and with high accuracy remains a challenging problem due to the computational cost of object detection on each frame. In this work we present Tracking with Crop-based Detection, a method for speeding object tracking in constrained contexts (with stable cameras and relatively-predictable object motion) such as vehicle traffic monitoring. We leverage this context to provide a strong prior for object locations, which we use to 1.) boost detection speed by detecting objects only in regions corresponding to object priors on most frames and 2.) inform the selection of the detector output for each object. We evaluate Crop-based Detection as an extension to the KIOU object tracker (Crop-KIOU) on the UA-DETRAC dataset. The proposed tracker outperforms all other reported algorithms in terms of PR-MOTA, PR-MOTP, and mostly tracked objects on the UA-DETRAC benchmark, establishing a new state-of-the-art. Relative to tracking by detection with KIOU, Crop-KIOU achieves a 26% higher frame-rate and increases accuracy. Furthermore, Tracking with Crop-based Detection can be combined with frame skipping; we show a 149% increase in framerate relative to KIOU with no decrease in accuracy using this combination of methods.

Gloudemans, Derek↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Structure of the Human BK Ion Channel in Lipid Environment

Voltage-gated and ligand-modulated ion channels play critical roles in excitable cells. To understand the interplay among voltage sensing, ligand binding, and channel opening, the structures of ion channels in various functional states and in lipid membrane environments need to be determined. Here, the random spherically constrained (RSC) single-particle cryo-EM method was employed to study human large conductance voltage- and calcium-activated potassium (hBK or hSlo1) channels reconstituted into liposomes. The hBK structure was determined at 3.5 Å resolution in the absence of Ca 2+ . Instead of the common fourfold symmetry observed in ligand-modulated ion channels, a twofold symmetry was observed in hBK in liposomes. Compared with the structure of isolated hSlo1 Ca 2+ sensing gating rings, two opposing subunits in hBK unfurled, resulting in a wider opening towards the transmembrane region of hBK. In the pore gate domain, two opposing subunits also moved downwards relative to the two other subunits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Variability in Ice Nucleating Particles Across Greater Houston Texas

The concentration and cloud-forming potential of a region's ice nucleating particle (INP) population have uncertain impacts on deep convective clouds. Specifically, ice nucleating particles (INPs) may affect various cloud properties related to the formation, lifetime, and precipitation of deep convective clouds. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's TRacking Aerosol and Convection interaction ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign, researchers from Texas A&M University deployed three Davis Rotating-drum Universal-size-cut Monitoring (DRUM) samplers throughout Greater Houston, Texas from June through September 2022. Ambient particles, collected at the surface with the DRUM samplers in four aerodynamic diameter size ranges (>3, 3–1.2, 1.2–0.34, and 0.34–0.15 μm), were analyzed in offline cold-stage ice nucleation experiments. The INP population in Greater Houston is complex, varying by site and day, but can be generalized by a weak to moderately efficient mode of INPs at −24°C and an efficient mode at −15°C. Analysis reveals that supermicron particles are largely responsible for ice nucleation warmer than −20°C across the region while submicron particles dominate at temperatures colder than −20°C. Additionally, significant spatial diversity in the INP population was observed, with differences in mean nucleation temperature between sites for nearly every size cut. Although INP concentrations were typically ∼0.08 L −1 at −20°C throughout the campaign, a notable region-wide increase in INP concentration for particles freezing at temperatures warmer than −20°C occurred from mid-August to mid-September. This comprehensive characterization of Greater Houston's INP population, including spatial, temporal, and particle size variations, can help constrain ice microphysics parameterizations in weather and climate models.

Thompson, Seth A. [Texas A & M Univ., College Stat↗

DOE OSTI2020

Where did the tumor start? An inverse solver with sparse localization for tumor growth models

In this work, we present a numerical scheme for solving an inverse problem for parameter estimation in tumor growth models for glioblastomas, a form of aggressive primary brain tumor. The growth model is a reaction–diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) for the tumor concentration. We use a PDE-constrained optimization formulation for the inverse problem. The unknown parameters are the reaction coefficient (proliferation), the diffusion coefficient (infiltration), and the initial condition field for the tumor PDE. Segmentation of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans drive the inverse problem where segmented tumor regions serve as partial observations of the tumor concentration. Like most cases in clinical practice, we use data from a single time snapshot. Moreover, the precise time relative to the initiation of the tumor is unknown, which poses an additional difficulty for inversion. We perform a frozen-coefficient spectral analysis and show that the inverse problem is severely ill-posed. We introduce a biophysically motivated regularization on the structure and magnitude of the tumor initial condition. In particular, we assume that the tumor starts at a few locations (enforced with a sparsity constraint on the initial condition of the tumor) and that the initial condition magnitude in the maximum norm is equal to one. We solve the resulting optimization problem using an inexact quasi-Newton method combined with a compressive sampling algorithm for the sparsity constraint. Our implementation uses PETSc and AccFFT libraries. We conduct numerical experiments on synthetic and clinical images to highlight the improved performance of our solver over a previously existing solver that uses standard two-norm regularization for the calibration parameters. The existing solver is unable to localize the initial condition. Our new solver can localize the initial condition and recover infiltration and proliferation. In clinical datasets (for which the ground truth is unknown), our solver results in qualitatively different solutions compared to the two-norm regularized solver.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Shell-model studies of the astrophysical r p -process reactions S 34 ( p , γ ) Cl 35 and Cl 34 g , m ( p , γ ) Ar 35

Background: Dust grains condensed in the outflows of presolar classical novae should have been present in the protosolar nebula. Candidates for such presolar nova grains have been found in primitive meteorites and can in principle be identified by their isotopic ratios, but the ratios predicted by state-of-the-art one-dimensional hydrodynamic models are uncertain due to nuclear-physics uncertainties. Purpose: To theoretically calculate the thermonuclear rates and uncertainties of the S 34 ( p , γ ) Cl 35 and Cl 34 g , m ( p , γ ) Ar 35 reactions and investigate their impacts on the predicted 34 S/ 32 S isotopic ratio for presolar nova grains. Method: A shell-model approach in a (0 +1 ) ℏ ω model space was used to calculate the properties of resonances in the 34 S(p ,γ ) 35 Cl and 34 g,m Cl (p ,γ ) 35 Ar reactions and their thermonuclear rates. Uncertainties were estimated using a Monte Carlo method. The implications of these rates and their uncertainties on sulfur isotopic nova yields were investigated using a postprocessing nucleosynthesis code. The rates for transitions from the ground state of 34 Cl as well as from the isomeric first excited state of 34 Cl were explicitly calculated. Results: At energies in the resonance region near the proton-emission threshold, many negative-parity states appear. Energies, spectroscopic factors, and proton-decay widths are reported. The resulting thermonuclear rates are compared with previous determinations. Conclusions: The shell-model calculations alone are sufficient to constrain the variation of the 34 S/ 32 S ratios to within about 30%. Uncertainties associated with other reactions must also be considered, but in general we find that the 34 S/ 32 S ratios are not a robust diagnostic to clearly identify presolar grains made from nova ejecta.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for a dark leptophilic scalar produced in association with τ + τ − pair in e + e − annihilation at center-of-mass energies near 10.58 GeV

A dark leptophilic scalar ( ϕ L ) is a hypothetical particle that couples only to leptons rather than quarks. We report on a search for ϕ L in the e + e − → τ + τ − ϕ L , ϕ L → ℓ + ℓ − ( ℓ = e , μ ) process using 626 fb − 1 of data collected by the Belle experiment near the ϒ ( 4 S ) resonance. We validate the backgrounds with multiple control regions in data, using a novel multiclass multivariate event classifier. In absence of a signal, we quote upper limits at the 90% confidence level on the coupling between ϕ L and leptons. Our bounds, obtained in a blinded approach, are 19% more constraining than the previous limits, averaged over the mass range 0.04 ≤ m ϕ L ≤ 6.5 GeV . We exclude the parameter space below 4 GeV favored by measurement of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Biswas, D. (ORCID:0000000275433471)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Behavior of Moderately Volatile Elements on the Moon in Order to Constrain Processes of Magmatic Evolution and Planetary Accretion

Heterogeneous isotopic compositions of Zn and Ga in lunar basalts and highlands rocks indicate that secondary processing affected the stable isotopic composition of major lunar reservoirs. It follows that these fractionating processes must be identified and characterized in order to make robust estimates for the isotopic composition of the mare basalt source regions or the bulk silicate Moon (BSM). Contrary to previous assertions (e.g., Kato & Moynier, 2017), MVEs such as Zn and Ga do not behave similarly on the Moon, in line with differences in their chemical behavior and volatility. There is clear evidence that impact reworking fractionates zinc isotopes but, in addition, zinc isotopes are also highly sensitive to the formation of Ti-bearing oxides such as ilmenite. In contrast, gallium is far less susceptible to volatile reworking, but its isotopic composition is fractionated during incorporation into plagioclase (Wimpenny et al., 2022; Render et al., 2023). Based on these findings we conclude that current isotopic compositions of Zn and Ga in lunar rocks, such as those measured for the mare basalt suite, are unlikely to be representative of the bulk Moon when it accreted. As such, estimates for the MVE isotopic composition of the BSM derived from mare basalts may not be accurate, which may have implications for the incorporation of these data into dynamical models of the Moon’s formation. In the following, we discuss the main findings from this project in more detail, focusing on the behaviour of zinc and gallium isotopic systematics in lunar rocks and the processes that control their isotopic fractionation on the Moon.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes

Evapotranspiration (ET) links the hydrological, energy and carbon cycles on the land surface. Quantifying ET and its spatio-temporal changes is also key to understanding climate extremes such as droughts, heatwaves and flooding. Regional ET estimates require reliable observation-based gridded ET datasets, and while many have been developed using physically based, empirically based and hybrid techniques, their efficacy, and particularly the efficacy of their uncertainty estimates, is difficult to verify. In this work, we extend the methodology used in Hobeichi et al. (2018) to derive two new versions of the Derived Optimal Linear Combination Evapotranspiration (DOLCE) product, with observationally constrained spatio-temporally varying uncertainty estimates, higher spatial resolution, more constituent products and extended temporal coverage (1980–2018). After demonstrating the efficacy of these uncertainty estimates with out-of-sample testing, we derive novel ET climatology clusters for the land surface, based on the magnitude and variability of ET at each location on land. The new clusters include three wet and three dry regimes and provide an approximation of Köppen–Geiger climate classes. The verified uncertainty estimates and extended time period then allow us to examine the robustness of historical trends spatially and in each of these six ET climatology clusters. We find that despite robust decreasing ET trends in some regions these do not correlate with behavioural ET clusters. Each cluster, and the majority of the Earth's surface, shows clear robust increases in ET over the recent historical period. The new datasets DOLCE V2.1 and DOLCE V3 can be used for benchmarking global ET estimates and for examining ET trends respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Polar primary aerosols across the ocean-sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface: From sources to impacts

Primary aerosols play a critical role in polar climate systems, influencing cloud formation, precipitation, radiative balance, and surface energy budgets. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of primary aerosol sources, transformation and removal processes, and broader atmospheric impacts in polar regions, emphasizing their links to ocean and sea ice biogeochemistry. These aerosols (including sea salt, primary organic aerosol, and primary biological aerosol particles) originate from marine and cryospheric environments and are emitted through physical processes, such as wave breaking, bubble bursting, and blowing snow. Emission sources include seawater, sea ice, snow, and freshwater from river discharge and glacial runoff. Once airborne, these particles can serve as a chemical reservoir, influencing atmospheric composition and reactivity, and as seeds for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation, influencing cloud microphysics and polar climate. Despite their importance, many of the processes governing primary aerosol emissions and transformations remain poorly constrained. The most pressing knowledge gaps pertain to emission processes, limited spatiotemporal observational coverage, instrumentation constraints, parameterization development, and the integration of interdisciplinary expertise. To improve our understanding of primary aerosol drivers and their response to climate, future research efforts should prioritize strategically coordinated and cross-disciplinary process studies, advancements in measurement technologies and coverage, and close collaboration between modelers and observational scientists to inform and refine model parameterizations. As polar regions continue to undergo profound changes marked by increased precipitation, reduced sea and land ice, freshening oceans, and shifting ecosystem dynamics, characterizing present-day primary aerosol populations is vital. Improved understanding will be essential for anticipating future changes in aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions and their implications for polar and global climate systems.

Aerosol-cloud↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Strong Anthropogenic Black Carbon Forcing Constrained by Pollution Trends Over China

Estimates of the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-radiation interaction (ERF ari ) of anthropogenic Black Carbon (BC) have been disputable and require better constraints. Here we find a substantial decline in atmospheric absorption of −5.79Wm −2 decade −1 over eastern central China (ECC) responding to recent anthropogenic BC emission reductions. By combining the observational finding with advances from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase6 (CMIP6), we identify an emergent constraint on the ERF ari of anthropogenic BC. We show that across CMIP6 models the simulated trends correlate well with simulated annual mean shortwave atmospheric absorption by anthropogenic BC over China. Making use of this emergent relationship allows us to constrain the aerosol absorption optical depth of anthropogenic BC and further provide a constrained range of 2.4–3.0 Wm −2 for its top-of-atmosphere ERF ari over China, higher than existing estimates. Furthermore, our work supports a strong warming effect of BC over China, and highlights the need to improve BC simulations over source regions.

CMIP6 models↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spin and lattice dynamics of the two-dimensional van der Waals ferromagnet CrI3

Chromium tri-iodide (CrI 3 ) is a prototypical ferromagnetic van der Waals insulator with its genuinely two-dimensional (2D) long-range magnetic order below 45 K demonstrated recently. The underlying magnetic anisotropy has not been completely understood while both the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya (DM) interaction and the Kitaev—Γ type interaction have been considered as the relevant magnetic Hamiltonian. In addition, the relation between the crystal structure and the magnetic order needs to be further elucidated concerning their possible coupling in few-layer samples and in the topmost surface layers of bulk samples. Here, we investigate these issues via temperature- and magnetic field-dependent terahertz spectroscopy on bulk CrI 3 single crystals, focusing on the dynamics of ferromagnetic resonances (FMRs) and optical phonons in the terahertz (THz) region from 4 to 120 cm -1 (from 0.5 to 15 meV). We narrow down the possible ranges of the interaction parameters such as the off-diagonal symmetric terms and the single-ion anisotropy. The accurate values of these parameters significantly constrain the magnitude of possible Kitaev—Γ exchange interaction and the topological magnon gap. Moreover, the structure-magnetism relationship was critically analyzed based on the temperature- and field-dependences of two E u in-plane optical phonon modes, which shows that the commonly believed structural phase diagram of CrI 3 , derived from surface-preferential data, has to be seriously modified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Large Power Transformer Supply Chain Gap Analysis and Domestic Content Strategies for Hydropower Rehabilitation: Supplemental Report

Large Power Transformers (LPTs) are indispensable to U.S. hydropower operations, serving as generator step-up (GSU) units that interconnect hydro facilities to the transmission grid. Yet the LPT supply chain faces mounting stress from aging infrastructure, limited domestic production, and long lead times. Currently, more than 80% of LPT demand is met through imports, with primary suppliers including Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, Austria, and Canada. Domestic manufacturers supply only about 20% of units, constrained by bottlenecks in high-grade Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel (GOES), copper conductors, bushings, and on-load tap changers (OLTCs). Hydropower rehabilitation projects in particular face additional challenges due to custom design requirements, remote siting, and regulatory needs around domestic content. Regional cost disparities, driven by transportation logistics, labor markets, and import price volatility, further exacerbate project risks. To address these vulnerabilities, coordinated action is required: strengthening domestic capacity for GOES and secondary components, developing near-site assembly hubs, and leveraging IRS domestic content safe harbors to incentivize U.S. manufacturing. This addendum refines the 2024 NREL Hydropower Supply Chain Gap Analysis by focusing specifically on critical issues related to LPT domestic manufacturing capacity and key considerations for hydropower developers and asset owners.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗