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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Experimental Wargaming with SIGNAL

Wargames are a common tool for investigating complex conflict scenarios and have a long history of informing military and strategic study. Historically, these games have often been one-offs, may not rigorously collect data, and have been built primarily for exploration rather than developing data-driven analytical conclusions. Experimental wargaming, a new wargaming approach that employs the basic principles of experimental design to facilitate an objective basis for exploring fundamental research questions around human behavior (such as understanding conflict escalation), is a potential tool that can be used in combination with existing wargaming approaches. The Project on Nuclear Gaming, a consortium involving the University of California, Berkeley, Sandia National Laboratories, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, developed an experimental wargame, SIGNAL, to explore questions surrounding conflict escalation and strategic stability in the nuclear context. To date, the SIGNAL experimental wargame has been played hundreds of times by thousands of players from around the world, creating the largest database of wargame data for academic purposes known to the authors. Here, this paper discusses the design of SIGNAL, focusing on how the principles of experimental design influenced this design.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2024

Integration of Automated Systems Test Campaign NC-IAS

NASA’s 2022 strategic plan included the goal to catalyze economic growth and drive innovation in the aviation industry, and to address challenges in air transportation and airspace management within the National Airspace System (NAS). The Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) specifically was tasked with leading aviation innovation to enable safe and sustainable air transportation through revolutionary vehicle advances and efficient flight operations. As a part of meeting these objectives and advancing air mobility concepts, NASA initiated the National Campaign (NC) in the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) Project within the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP). The NC was designed to support operational demonstrations with industry as well as the research and development needed to support NASA-led research flight demonstrations. Within NC, the Integration of Automated Systems (IAS), an NC activity, tested and evaluated flight deck automation and airspace operations management functions needed to enable Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. This was accomplished through a partnership with Sikorsky Aircraft (specifically Sikorsky Innovations), a Lockheed Martin company, and DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), by leveraging two automation-enabled helicopters equipped with unique capabilities that enabled NASA to develop and test two-ship conflict encounters to demonstrate flight path management and hazard avoidance technologies. The enabler in this testing was NASA-developed “Middleware” (MW) software (also known as Expandable Variable Autonomy Architecture, or EVAA), which among other things allowed multiple algorithms to be incorporated into one software build that was hosted on the dissimilar-type Sikorsky helicopters. The IAS test campaign period of performance was from March 2022 through October 2023 and was structured as a phased, or spiral, approach that ultimately led to the first-ever demonstration of two-ship UAM/AAM operations designed to safely choreograph specific conflict encounters and mission scenarios to test the research algorithms for strategic and tactical aircraft deconfliction. Lessons learned are included in the body of the report. Data collected will be used to inform FAA and industry standards groups on the increasingly automated systems needed for future AAM operations. The test encounters developed for these flight tests were proven to be highly predictable, repeatable, and safely exercised flight path planning and Detect and Avoid (DAA) algorithms. These same test encounters should be leveraged by future flight test campaigns to verify that operational safety is not compromised as the AAM architecture matures. Next steps include repeating similar encounters using unmanned aircraft carrying DAA sensors in the National Airspace.

AAM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fencing affects movement patterns of two large carnivores in Southern Africa

The erection of peripheral fences around protected areas has been shown to adversely affect the movement behavior, genetic connectivity and long-term viability of animal populations. However, fencing is also used extensively to reduce human encroachment, limit poaching activities, and mitigate human–wildlife conflicts. Limited information on the movement behavior of carnivores is available along the periphery of protected areas, particularly in semi-arid environments. To quantify the potential effects of the 824 km perimeter fence surrounding the Etosha National Park (Etosha, Namibia) on the movement and space use of carnivores, we collected GPS movement data from 36 lions (Panthera leo) and seven spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) over a 14-year period. For these two apex carnivores, we measured the impact of the Etosha fence on their movements (step lengths and path straightness), calculated the likelihood of fence crossings, and evaluated the spatial–temporal characteristics of these crossings. Our results indicated that lions and hyenas moved faster (longer step lengths) when closer to the fence. Lions showed no variation in path straightness with respect to the fence but hyenas had straighter movement paths when closer to the fence. When moving within the vicinity of the fence, lions had a 9% likelihood of crossing the fence, while hyenas were much more likely (18%) to do so, which suggests that the Etosha fence was more permeable for hyenas than for lions. Fence crossings predominantly occurred at night for both species. Lions were more likely to cross the fence during the cold dry season (May–August) whereas hyenas crossed more often during the warm wet season (December–April). Female and adult lions had a higher probability of crossing the fence than males and subadults. These findings could be useful in the development of appropriate strategies to mitigate human–carnivore conflicts and thus promote the conservation of carnivores in multiple-use areas along the periphery of the park. Further research is needed to better elucidate the impact of perimeter fences on a broader suite of carnivores and other large mammals, including species-specific variation in the response to fences, as well as the economic benefits of fencing provided to local communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting Dropout: Escaping Pressure for Training Neural Networks with Multiple Costs

A common approach to jointly learn multiple tasks with a shared structure is to optimize the model with a combined landscape of multiple sub-costs. However, gradients derived from each sub-cost often conflicts in cost plateaus, resulting in a subpar optimum. In this work, we shed light on such gradient conflict challenges and suggest a solution named Cost-Out, which randomly drops the sub-costs for each iteration. We provide the theoretical and empirical evidence of the existence of escaping pressure induced by the Cost-Out mechanism. While simple, the empirical results indicate that the proposed method can enhance the performance of multi-task learning problems, including two-digit image classification sampled from MNIST dataset and machine translation tasks for English from and to French, Spanish, and German WMT14 datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development Context Driven Change Awareness and Analysis Framework

Recent work on workspace monitoring allows conflict prediction early in the development process, however, these approaches mostly use syntactic differencing techniques to compare different program versions. In contrast, traditional change-impact analysis techniques analyze related versions of the program only after the code has been checked into the master repository. We propose a novel approach, De- CAF (Development Context Analysis Framework), that leverages the development context to scope a change impact analysis technique. The goal is to characterize the impact of each developer on other developers in the team. There are various client applications such as task prioritization, early conflict detection, and providing advice on testing that can benefit from such a characterization. The DeCAF framework leverages information from the development context to bound the iDiSE change impact analysis technique to analyze only the parts of the code base that are of interest. Bounding the analysis can enable DeCAF to efficiently compute the impact of changes using a combination of program dependence and symbolic execution based approaches.

Change Awareness↗

NASA NTRS2020

Tactical Separation and Safety Alerting System for Terminal Airspace

Provision of tactical alerts to aid air traffic controllers in providing separation assurance in terminal airspace is hindered by the complexity of the airspace, its operations, and flight procedures. A prototype automation system is studied that provides controllers with both separation and safety alerts based on or derived from the separation standard for terminal airspace. The system models flight trajectories heuristically, with use of merged intent information from readily available sources: area navigation departure procedures, flight-plan routes, and arrival nominal interior routes used in terminal automation systems. Flight vertical intent is modeled according to standard procedural restrictions except when superseded by controller-issued altitude clearances. Importantly, flight trajectories are modeled for all aircraft, including those conducting visual approaches. New safety-alert thresholds for aircraft conducting visual approaches are studied. Performance of the system is evaluated through fast-time playback of recorded air traffic data from high-fidelity Human-In-The-Loop simulations and real-world operations in two Terminal Radar Approach Control facilities. The prototype system is found to produce a false-alert rate of 8% for separation alerts. The number and validity of safety alerts are studied by comparing with the current Conflict Alert system, showing that the false alerts of Conflict Alert are at 85% and they are avoided in the prototype system.

Air Traffic Management↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Monomer Design Synergizing Property Trade‐offs in Developing Polymers for Circularity and Performance

Abstract Current search for more sustainable plastics seeks to redesign polymers possessing both chemical recyclability to monomer for a circular plastics economy and desirable performance that can rival or even exceed today's non‐recyclable or hard‐to‐recycle petroleum‐based incumbents. However, within a traditional monomer framework it is challenging to optimize, concurrently , contrasting polymerizability/depolymerizability and recyclability/performance properties. Here, we highlight the emerging hybrid monomer design strategy to develop intrinsically circular polymers with tunable performance properties, aiming to unify desired, but otherwise conflicting, properties in a single monomer. Conceptually, this design hybridizes parent monomer pairs of contrasting, mismatching, or matching properties into offspring monomers that not only unify the above‐described conflicting properties but also radically alter the resultant polymer properties far beyond the limits of what either parent homopolymers or their copolymers can achieve.

Shi, Changxia↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Monomer Design Synergizing Property Trade‐offs in Developing Polymers for Circularity and Performance

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of color in digital nuclear power plant control room displays

Human system interface design in industrial process control is guided by industry standards, human factors best practices, and domain-specific conventions, and often there is a conflict between one or more of the sources of design input for specific design elements. In the nuclear domain, one design element for which conflict arises is the use of color to represent equipment state. Here, this study evaluates the tradeoffs associated with using color in a process control display versus using white and shades of gray. The performance metrics were response time, accuracy, and eye movement metrics using a simplified experimental task and professional operators. Results revealed that adhering to color conventions in nuclear power yielded small advantages in simple tasks, but did not exist for more complex tasks. The results did not provide strong evidence for or against using a particular color scheme and revealed the need for further research on the use of color for commercial nuclear power plants and other process control industries.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global Biodiversity Implications of Alternative Electrification Strategies Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Addressing climate mitigation while meeting global electrification goals will require major transitions from fossil-fuel dependence to large-scale renewable energy deployment. However, renewables require significant land assets per unit energy and could come at high cost to ecosystems, creating potential conflicts between global climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Here, we explore the potential biodiversity implications of alternative future global electrification pathways as depicted under the Shared Socioeconomic Scenarios (SSPs), i.e., alternative trends in societal development. We examined the intersection of high-resolution estimates of global energy densities for ten renewable and conventional technologies with global richness data to estimate technology-specific biodiversity footprints (species per GWh), whereas a Cumulative Biodiversity Impact (CBI) score was used to assess land and biodiversity outcomes of alternative scenarios. Downscaled electricity generation scenarios (2020-2100) were also constrained by alternative land conservation and energy development policies. Unexpectedly, variation among SSPs did not exhibit a clear tradeoff between global climate mitigation and CBI. Rather, CBIs were an outcome of total infrastructure development to meet electricity demand (from population growth and GDP) and the total magnitude of renewable energy development and storage technologies. Renewables assembled along a spectrum from land sharing to sparing. At the land sharing end, biomass-powered electricity from dedicated crops contributed the most to biodiversity impacts due to low energy density, whereas land-sparing technologies (solar) caused more-intense land degradation, but in smaller areas. Our results suggest that local land conservation practices and strategies promoting energy diversification could have greater implications for future biodiversity conflicts than global socioeconomic drivers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation

Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Can we have clean energy and grow our crops too? Solar siting on agricultural land in the United States

We report a record amount of large-scale solar development is proposed and under construction in the US Midwest, much of it on agricultural land. This article contributes to the social science literature on renewable energy and public acceptance by addressing stakeholder perspectives on developing utility-scale solar power on agricultural land and complex institutional dynamics that shape these siting decisions. How do stakeholders’ interactions coproduce solar siting decisions? How are the existing complex contexts of energy and agricultural systems affecting solar siting? Who are the stakeholders involved in agricultural solar siting, and how do their epistemic paradigms about using agricultural land, especially prime farmland, differ? To answer these questions, interviews were conducted and analyzed across energy, agriculture, government, and expert stakeholder groups, focusing on Michigan, with comparison to other states. The results provide a conceptual map of stakeholder interaction related to solar development on farmland and characterize the main epistemic paradigms shaping stakeholder conflict. Issues shaping agricultural community perceptions include identity and farmland, the decisions of local farmland renters and non-operating landlords, prime versus lower quality farmland, farm financial viability, and farmland as private property or a public good. Some scientists and engineers seek to alleviate conflicts and drawbacks of agricultural land conversion for solar use by combining farming and solar energy generation: a practice called agrivoltaics. We argue that agrivoltaics are currently treated as a technological fix by not accounting for stakeholder interaction in complex policy, community, and scientific institutions. We conclude by identifying interdisciplinary research priorities to develop socially robust designs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrating three plan evaluation approaches for coordinated heat resilience in cities across the Arizona urban corridor

Increasing heat poses a growing threat to cities worldwide due to both climate change and the urban heat island effect. While heat planning and governance are still emergent, research suggests that silos and conflicts within cities' networks of plans often impede heat resilience. Integrated heat resilience planning, therefore, requires a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the silos and conflicts relevant to heat resilience within networks of plans. This study is the first to combine three complementary plan evaluation methods to assess how cities' networks of plans address heat resilience. We applied 1) plan cross-referencing, 2) Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, and 3) Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat to 19 plans from seven Arizona cities. We find similarities and differences in how these cities' networks of plans address heat hazards. The plans have consistently high-quality participation and coordination principles but lack details on vulnerability and climate change uncertainty, suggesting a need to move beyond immediate heat risks. We also identify opportunities to diversify policy mechanisms, spatially target high heat risk areas, and enhance the connection between planning efforts. These results validate that plan elements are interlinked and the importance of integrative plan development processes to improve heat resilience.

Extreme heat↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nanolatticed Architecture Mitigates Damage in Shark Egg Cases

Structural versatility and multifunctionality of biological materials have resulted in countless bioinspired strategies seeking to emulate the properties of nature. The nanostructured egg case of swell sharks is one of the toughest permeable membranes known and, thus, presents itself as a model system for materials where the conflicting properties, strength and porosity, are desirable. The egg case possesses an intricately ordered structure that is designed to protect delicate embryos from the external environment while enabling respiratory and metabolic exchange, achieving a tactical balance between conflicting properties. Herein, structural analyses revealed an enabling nanolattice architecture that constitutes a Bouligand-like nanoribbon hierarchical assembly. Three distinct hierarchical architectural adaptations enhance egg case survival: Bouligand-like organization for in-plane isotropic reinforcement, noncylindrical nanoribbons maximizing interfacial stress distribution, and highly ordered nanolattices enabling permeability and lattice-governed toughening mechanisms. Furthermore, these discoveries provide fundamental insights for the improvement of multifunctional membranes, fiber-reinforced soft composites, and mechanical metamaterials.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

ZIF-8 Vibrational Spectra: Peak Assignments and Defect Signals

In this study, Zeolitic Imidazolate Framework-8 (ZIF-8) is a promising material for gas separation applications. It also serves as a prototype for numerous ZIFs, including amorphous ones, with a broader range of possible applications, including sensors, catalysis, and lithography. It consists of zinc coordinated with 2-methylimidazolate (2mIm) and has been synthesized with methods ranging from liquid-phase to solvent-free synthesis, which aim to control its crystal size and shape, film thickness and microstructure, and incorporation into nanocomposites. Depending on the synthesis method and post-synthesis treatments, ZIF-8 materials may deviate from the nominal defect-free ZIF-8 crystal structure due to defects like missing 2mIm, missing zinc, and physically adsorbed 2mIm trapped in the ZIF-8 pores, which may alter its performance and stability. Infra-red (IR) spectroscopy has been used to assess the presence of defects in ZIF-8 and related materials. However, conflicting interpretations by various authors persist in the literature. Here, we systematically investigate ZIF-8 vibrational spectra by combining experimental IR spectroscopy and first-principles molecular dynamics simulations, focusing on assigning peaks and elucidating the spectroscopic signals of putative defects present in ZIF-8 material. We attempt to resolve conflicting assignments from the literature and to provide a comprehensive understanding of the vibrational spectra of ZIF-8 and its defect-induced variations, aiming towards more precise quality control and design of ZIF-8-based materials for emerging applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nanosecond solvation dynamics in a polymer electrolyte for lithium batteries

Solvation dynamics critically affect charge transport. Spectroscopic experiments and computer simulations show that these dynamics in aqueous systems occur on a picosecond timescale. In the case of organic electrolytes, however, conflicting values ranging from 1 to several 100 picoseconds have been reported. We resolve this conflict by studying mixtures of an organic polymer and a lithium salt. Lithium ions coordinate with multiple polymer chains, resulting in temporary crosslinks. Relaxation of these crosslinks, detected by quasielastic neutron scattering, are directly related to solvation dynamics. Simulations reveal a broad spectrum of relaxation times. The average timescale for solvation dynamics in both experiment and simulation is one nanosecond. Here we present the direct measurement of ultraslow dynamics of solvation shell break-up in an electrolyte.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficacy and safety of warfarin in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and CKD G3–G5D

ABSTRACT Background Observational data comparing warfarin with no treatment for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and severely reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are conflicting and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are lacking. Most studies do not provide information on warfarin treatment quality, making them difficult to compare. Methods This national cohort study investigates the risk of ischaemic stroke and major bleeding during warfarin treatment compared with no oral anticoagulants in patients with NVAF, GFR category 3–5 (G3–G5) or on dialysis (G5D), with kidney transplant recipients excluded, between 2009 and 2018. Data extracted from high-quality Swedish national healthcare registries, including the Swedish Renal Registry, AuriculA—the Swedish national quality registry for atrial fibrillation and anticoagulation—and the Stroke Registry. Results At enrolment of 12 106 patients, 21.4% were G3, 43.5% were G4, 11.6% were G5 and 23.6% were G5D. The mean time in the therapeutic range was 70%. Warfarin compared with no treatment showed a lower risk for ischaemic stroke for G3 {hazard ratio [HR] 0.37 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18–0.76]}, G4 [0.53 (0.38–0.74)] and G5D [0.49 (0.30–0.79)] and an increased risk of major bleeding in G4 [HR 1.22 (1.02–1.46)], G5 [1.52 (1.15–2.01)] and G5D [1.23 (1.00–1.51)]. All-cause mortality was more than halved on warfarin compared with no treatment in all GFR categories. Conclusions Warfarin treatment is associated with a lower risk of ischaemic stroke for patients with NVAF and G3, G4 and G5D at the cost of a higher risk of major bleeding for G4–G5D. Existing observational data are conflicting, stressing the need for RCTs on warfarin compared with no treatment in G4–G5D. Awaiting RCTs, it seems reasonable to treat selected patients on dialysis and NVAF with warfarin.

Welander, Frida (ORCID:0000000311117215)↗