Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional expectations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of locked mode instability triggered by a change in confinement

Abstract This work presents the first analysis of the disruptive locked mode (LM) triggered by the dynamics of a confinement change. It shows that, under certain conditions, the LM threshold during the transient is significantly lower than expected from steady states. We investigate the sensitivity to a controlled n = 1 error field (EF) activated prior to the L-H transition in the COMPASS tokamak, at q 95 ∼ 3, β N ∼ 1, and using EF coils on the high-field side of the vessel. A threshold for EF penetration subsequent to the L-H transition is identified, which shows no significant trend with density or applied torque, and is an apparent consequence of the reduced intrinsic rotation of the 2/1 mode during this transient phase. This finding challenges the assumption made in theoretical and empirical works that natural mode rotation can be predicted by global plasma parameters and urges against using any parametric EF penetration scaling derived from steady-state experiments to define the EF correction strategy in the entire discharge. Furthermore, even at EFs below the identified penetration threshold, disruptive locking of sawtooth-seeded 2/1 tearing modes is observed after about 30% of L-H transitions without external torque.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Three-dimensional structure of hybrid magnetic skyrmions determined by neutron scattering

Magnetic skyrmions are topologically protected chiral spin textures which present opportunities for next-generation magnetic data storage and logic information technologies. The topology of these structures originates in the geometric configuration of the magnetic spins, more generally described as the structure. While the skyrmion structure is most often depicted using a two-dimensional projection of the three-dimensional (3D) structure, recent works have emphasized the role of all three dimensions in determining the topology and their response to external stimuli. Here, grazing-incidence small-angle neutron scattering and polarized neutron reflectometry are used to determine the 3D structure of hybrid skyrmions. The structure of the hybrid skyrmions, which includes a combination of Néel-like and Bloch-like components along their length, is expected to significantly contribute to their notable stability, which includes ambient conditions. To interpret the neutron scattering data, micromagnetic simulations of the hybrid skyrmions were performed, and the corresponding diffraction patterns were determined using a Born approximation transformation. The converged magnetic profile reveals the magnetic structure along with the skyrmion depth profile, including the thickness of the Bloch and Néel segments and the diameter of the core.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation Simulations for Multi-Component Mixture Model [Slides]

Set up and ran a large, 3D, 3 component Rayleigh-Taylor Mixing Simulation: Match initial conditions from; Run with multiple mesh sizes to demonstrate convergence to expected mixing layer growth rate. Wrote and tested new FLAG capability to enforce a specified temporal temperature profile.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Longleaf Pine Seedlings Are Extremely Resilient to the Combined Effects of Experimental Fire and Drought

The longleaf pine ecosystem is dependent on frequent fire. Climate change is expected to influence moisture availability and it is unclear how drought conditions may interact with prescribed fire to influence management objectives associated with maintaining longleaf pine ecosystems. This study aimed to understand the impacts of drought, fire intensity and their interaction on P. palustris grass-stage seedlings. We used droughted and well-watered P. palustris seedlings burned at two different fire intensity levels at an indoor combustion facility. Needle fuel moisture content of burned seedlings was not different between droughted and well-watered groups. Mortality and resprouting only occurred at fire intensity levels exceeding 3.5 MJ m−2 in combination with drought that resulted in predawn water potentials more negative than −1.7 MPa. Our observations of minimal mortality after exposing P. palustris seedlings to a range of fire intensities in a burn lab contrast the higher mortality observed in field studies for the species. Compared to seedlings and saplings of Western US Pinus species, this study demonstrates that P. palustris is considerably more resistant to the combined effects of high surface fire intensity and drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal shock resistance of lightweight cements developed for geothermal conditions

Cements are a critical component in well construction, as they act to prevent well fluid and gas escape, prevent corrosion of the casing, and strengthen the wellbore to prevent deformation. Under the high temperature/pressure conditions common in geothermal systems, the injection of cold water for energy production is expected to induce cyclic damage to the borehole cement through the rapid temperature fluctuations. These “thermal shocks” are expected to cause casing shrinkage, annulus formation, and cement tensile stresses. To understand the effect of cold water injection on the wellbore environment, a set of rock-cement-steel samples were created to simulate the structure of a geothermal well. Lightweight thermally-insulating cement blends were tested under thermal shock conditions in this study. In each test, the samples were pressurized to an effective pressure of ~3.5 MPa and placed at high temperatures. Thermal shocks were performed by injecting cold water (~10-15 °C) through the samples at a constant rate while keeping the samples at high temperatures until the sample temperature stopped decreasing and deformation ceased. Eight thermal shock tests were conducted with each sample – two at 100 °C and six at 200 °C. Post-tests analysis was then conducted by cutting open each sample to examine the damage in each component of the simulated wellbore. Experimental results suggest that all samples experienced similar degrees of axial and lateral contraction during cold water injection, but for the most part this contraction is recoverable when injection halts. Post-test analysis revealed that fly ash cenosphere pre-treatment had the best effect on improving thermal shock resistance in the cement blends. Thermomechanical modeling of likely stress paths experienced by the cements during heating/cooling cycles shows that elasto-plastic cement constitutive behavior results in most plastic strain occurring during the initial heating steps, with mostly elastic strain occurring during the thermal shock cycles. In conclusion, this agrees with experimental evidence, suggesting that cement damage from shocking occurs via other mechanisms such as chemical alteration, corrosion, and fatigue.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Design of Relativistic Ultrafast Electron Diffraction and Imaging (RUEDI) Facility for Materials in Extremes

Materials in extreme conditions in terms of temperature and pressure are of great interest where novel phenomena are expected for new science and materials design. A wide range of materials are of interest, including warm dense matter, particulate materials, liquid materials, fusion materials and geophysical materials. Their environments also range from liquid phase, gas phase and cryogenic temperatures. Here, the conditions often correspond to the level of the interiors of planets or stars. Such conditions are, however, typically not available in the laboratory. In addition, novel phenomena exist as transition structures that occur at an extremely short time scale in the harsh environments, which are often difficult to be modelled.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of the Effect of Chrome and Nickel Concentrations During Two-Piston Splat Quenching of Austenitic Stainless Steels

For solidification rates at or near equilibrium solidification conditions the effects of chrome (Cr) and nickel (Ni) on stainless steel solidification modes and microstructures are well detailed. However, fusion-based additive manufacturing (FBAM) processes that rely on faster, more rapid solidification rates call for a more in-depth understanding of the effects of rapid solidification on the solidification behavior and how these change with variations in alloy composition. Eleven custom stainless steel (SS) alloys with unique compositions based on 316L were made using targeted alloying element additions to generate feedstock with Cr/Ni eq ratios ranging from 0.9 to 2.1. Two-piston splat quenching (SQ) was used to produce rapid solidification conditions similar to those achieved in powder bed fusion processes in a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods. Employing heat transfer simulations, SEM, TEM, and STEM characterization techniques, the SQ process was found to consistently produce solidification rates estimated to be between ~ 0.4 and 1.6 m/s. Five unique solidification microstructures were identified within the rapidly solidified SQ samples (primary austenite, massively transformed ferrite to austenite, primary austenite and massively transformed ferrite to austenite, primary ferrite, and primary ferrite and massively transformed ferrite to austenite). Both the primary ferrite solidification mode and primary ferrite phase were found to form at lower Cr/Ni eq values than previously predicted. SQ samples with compositions that were within the compositional specifications for 316L SS, an alloy which is commonly used in FBAM processes, demonstrated a wider range of potential solidification modes and microstructures that could form at rapid solidification rates than expected. Finally, by using SQ as a means to simulate rapid solidification conditions similar to those observed in FBAM processes, potential new alloy compositions can be screened faster and more cost effectively than purchasing and running test batches of the metallic powder.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Foliar Application of Nettle and Japanese Knotweed Extracts on Vitis vinifera: Consequences for Plant Physiology, Biochemical Parameters, and Yield

Climate change is expected to affect grapevine physiology, berry quality, and yield in the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR). In this study, nettle (NE) and Japanese knotweed (JKE) extracts were tested to verify their biostimulant effect on the physiological and biochemical parameters of grapevine leaves and in vine yields. In fact, some parameters were improved after foliar application of the plant extracts, namely the photosynthetic activity and consequently, the levels of photosynthetic pigments (Clb), starch, and total soluble sugars. We also observed a reduction in lipid peroxidation, which could play a crucial role in protecting cell membranes from oxidative damage induced by the climatic conditions prevalent in this region. Therefore, we confirmed that the foliar application of plant extracts, along with the enhancement of secondary metabolites and the upregulation of plant defense genes, as previously reported, resulted in the enhancement of grapevine physiology, while also increasing the yield at harvest. In the future, these plant extracts could serve as a vital tool for winegrowers in mitigating the effects of expected changes in climatic conditions.

Monteiro, Eliana (ORCID:0000000231675540)↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of climate on solvent-based direct air capture systems

Direct air capture (DAC) is increasingly seen as a critical technology to reach mid-century net-zero targets and limit climate change to well below 2 °C. While the commercialization of DAC technologies is being pursued by numerous companies, there remains remarkably little information on their performance under “real-world” conditions. In this paper, for the first time, we investigate the influence of temperature and relative humidity of air on the CO 2 capture rate at the air contactor, overall energy requirement, CO 2 capture efficiency, and levelized cost of liquid-solvent based DAC systems. We observe that the overall energy demand decreases from 11.1 to 8.3 GJ/tCO 2 as the CO 2 capture rate increases from 40 to 85 % and that high capture rates can only be achieved in hot and humid climate conditions. We observe that a CO 2 capture rate of 75 % is only possible above 17 °C and 90 % relative humidity, and this drops dramatically at lower temperatures. It is also observed that water evaporation in the air contactor is highest at dry and low relative humidity, as expected. The sensitivity analysis showed that CO 2 capture efficiency is relatively insensitive to climate conditions for the liquid-solvent based DAC plant. Lastly, the levelized cost of natural gas standalone scenario varies from $240/tCO 2 to $409/tCO 2 , and this is more sensitive to temperature than relative humidity. The levelized cost of the natural gas stand-alone case is between 7 % and 10 % lower than that of an electric grid-connected case across all climate conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Annual Air Handling Unit Fault Dataset for FDD Tools: Lessons Learned and Considerations for FDD Developers

As energy management and information systems (e.g., automated fault detection and diagnostics [AFDD] tools) become more prevalent in the commercial building stock, it is important to determine the effectiveness of these technologies by benchmarking their performance. The authors have been working to develop the largest publicly available dataset of HVAC fault data for performance benchmarking applications, covering the most common HVAC systems and designs including chiller plants, rooftop packaged units, dual duct air handling units and single duct air handling units. This study covers the development, modeling, and validation of a synthetic fault dataset for a single duct air handling unit (AHU), one of the most common HVAC configurations found in the commercial building stock. Despite this being a common system, real-world time series data are scarce and usually do not span a wide range of weather conditions. Due to this limitation, a detailed AHU model was employed to carry out annual simulations of numerous common sensor and mechanical faults, which were then validated by comparing their effects on system performance to expected symptoms. We summarize the nature of each fault and their impacts under different weather and operation conditions. Finally, we highlight considerations for FDD developers that may want to use this dataset to assess their algorithms’ performance and their improvement over time.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Cost Analysis and Operational Range Prediction Based on Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Real-World Deployments across the United States

While the market for medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles (MHD EVs) is still nascent, a growing number of these vehicles are being deployed across the U.S. This study used over 2.3 million miles of operational data from multiple types of MHD EVs across various regions and operating conditions to address knowledge gaps in total cost of ownership and operational range. First, real-world energy cost savings were determined: MHD fleets should experience energy cost savings each year from 2021 to 2035, regardless of vehicle platform, with the greatest savings seen in transit buses (up to USD 4459 annually) and HD trucks (up to USD 3284 annually). Second, to help fleets across various geographies throughout the U.S. assess the suitability of EVs for their year-round operating needs, operational range was modeled using the XGBoost algorithm (R2: 70%) given 22 input features relevant to vehicle efficiency. Finally, this paper recommends (1) that MHD fleets apply energy-saving practices to minimize the impacts of cold temperatures and high congestion levels on vehicle efficiency and range, and (2) that local hauling fleets select trucks with a nominal range nearly double the expected maximum daily range to account for range losses under local, urban driving conditions.

Qiu, Yin (ORCID:0009000900948794)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conversion kinetics of container glass batch melting

Abstract Understanding the batch‐to‐glass conversion process is fundamental to optimizing the performance of glass‐melting furnaces and ensuring that furnace modeling can correctly predict the observed outcome when batch materials or furnace conditions change. To investigate the kinetics of silica dissolution, gas evolution, and primary foam formation and collapse, we performed X‐ray diffraction, thermal gravimetry, feed expansion tests, and evolved gas analysis of batch samples heated at several constant heating rates. We found that gas evolving reactions, foaming, and silica dissolution depend on the thermal history of the batch in a similar manner: the kinetic parameters of each process were linear functions of the square root of the heating rate. This kinetic similarity reflects the stronger‐than‐expected interdependence of these processes. On the basis of our results, we suggest that changes in furnace operating conditions, such as firing or boosting, influence the melting rate less than what one would expect without consideration of batch conversion kinetics.

Ueda, Nanako↗
DOE OSTI2020

Half‐Fused Diketopyrrolopyrrole‐Based Conjugated Donor–Acceptor Polymer for Ambipolar Field‐Effect Transistors

Abstract A novel building block, denoted as half‐fused diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) (9‐(3‐octadecylhenicosyl)‐8‐(thiophen‐2‐yl)‐7 H ‐pyrrolo[3,4‐ a ]thieno[3,2‐ g ]indolizine‐7,10(9 H )‐dione), in which one of the flanking thiophene units is fused to one of the DPP rings via a carbon‐carbon double bond at the N‐position is reported. The half‐fused DPP is successfully utilized as an electron acceptor to prepare the conjugated donor–acceptor polymer PTFDFT , which exhibits ambipolar semiconducting behavior in ambient air. Theoretical calculations and absorption spectral studies show that the backbone of PTFDFT is more planar compared to the reference polymer with conventional DPP units. As a result, PTFDFT shows a narrow bandgap and low lowest unoccupied molecular orbital level. The more planar backbone with fewer side chains favors the dense packing of the polymer chains of PTFDFT with a short π–π stacking distance (3.49 Å). Grazing‐incidence wide‐angle X‐ray scattering data further confirm the predominant edge‐on packing mode of the PTFDFT polymer chains on the substrate. As expected, the PTFDFT thin film shows excellent ambipolar semiconducting properties under ambient conditions, reaching 2.23 and 1.08 cm 2 V −1 s −1 for the n‐ and p‐channels, respectively. In addition, complementary‐like inverter with gain value as high as 141 is successfully constructed using the PTFDFT thin film.

Shi, Dandan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Averse Bi-Level Stochastic Network Interdiction Model for Cyber-Security Risk Management

Security of cyber networks is crucial; recent severe cyber-attacks have had a devastating effect on many large organizations. The attack graph, which maps the potential attack paths of a cyber network, is a popular tool for analyzing cyber system vulnerability. In this study, we propose a bi-level stochastic network interdiction model on an attack graph to enable a risk-averse, resource constrained cyber network defender to optimally deploy security countermeasures that protect against attackers with an uncertain budget. This risk- averse conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected maximum loss over all scenarios and the expected maximum loss from the most damaging attack scenarios. We develop a customized constraint and column generation algorithm to solve our model as well as several acceleration techniques to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the acceleration techniques enable the solution of relatively large problems within a reasonable amount of time: applying all the acceleration techniques also reduces the average computation time of the basic algorithm by 71% for 100-node graphs. Using metrics called mean-risk value of stochastic solution and value of risk-aversion, computational results suggest that our stochastic risk-averse model significantly outperforms deterministic and risk-neutral models when 1) the distribution of attacker budget is heavy-right-tailed and 2) the defender is highly risk-averse.

Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of spacer grids on high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal

Increasing the fuel burnup limit in light-water reactors to improve fuel cycle economics requires a strong technical foundation. Experimental observations from the Halden and Studsvik programs have revealed severe fuel fragmentation during loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, highlighting the need for additional technical evaluation. Consequently, further LOCA test data are needed to complement existing findings and improve the understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) behavior. Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Severe Accident Test Station has played a significant role in advancing the understanding of high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal phenomena. One remaining gap in the available experimental database is the effect of fuel assembly structural features on cladding deformation behavior during a LOCA, and more specifically, their impact on the fuel’s ability to fragment, relocate, and disperse. Recent analyses using the BISON fuel performance code suggest that cladding deformation near grid spacers will remain below the 3% threshold that has been reported in the NRC Research Information Letter, indicating that the cladding could remain mechanically constrained during the LOCA event. This paper builds upon the BISON analyses to design and conduct a series of out-of-cell tests aimed at further evaluating cladding deformation in and around grid spacers. In addition, these tests were used to assess local cladding temperature conditions and compare them against analytical predictions in order to better replicate expected in-reactor behavior. Finally, an in-cell high-burnup LOCA test was designed and performed to evaluate the effects of a grid spacer, or cladding restraint, on fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility. The high-burnup test results differed from those of historical LOCA experiments, with a recorded rupture temperature of 861°C. Two ballooned regions and corresponding rupture openings were observed, with rupture widths of approximately 0.64 mm for both ruptures and rupture lengths of 4.8 mm and 5.6 mm, respectively.

Capps, Nathan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2022

X-ray diffraction from shock driven Sn microjets

Here, in situ x-ray diffraction was performed on shock-generated microjets composed of Sn and Sn–4Ag. Under low pressure drives (~21 GPa), a significant fraction of the jet volume was found to be in the β-Sn phase, and these crystallites were much smaller than the initial grain size of the material. Significant quantities of amorphous (molten) material were observed for higher drive pressures (~25–35 GPa). The extent of melting at these pressures was greater than would be predicted for uniaxial shock loading. Diffraction patterns from the Sn–4Ag alloy showed a peak that is consistent with the expected Ag 3 Sn intermetallic phase. This peak remained evident under drive conditions where the sample was otherwise fully amorphous. This indicates a slushy or a mixed phase of liquid Sn and solid Ag 3 Sn. Given the eutectic character of this alloy, this observation is attributed to a kinetic limitation on the dissolution of Ag 3 Sn. This implies that a much broader range of drive conditions will lead to mixed phase jets and ejecta than would be predicted from the equilibrium melt boundary of such alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗