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At least 379 records · Page 21

Identifying non-reference sites to guide stream restoration and long-term monitoring

The reference condition paradigm has served as the standard for assessing the outcomes of restoration projects, particularly their success in meeting project objectives. One limitation of relying solely on the reference condition in designing and monitoring restoration projects is that reference conditions do not necessarily elucidate impairments to effective restoration, especially diagnosing the causal mechanisms behind unsuccessful outcomes. We provide a spatial framework to select both reference and non-reference streams to guide restoration planning and long-term monitoring through reliance on altered ecosystems to understand processes that govern ecosystem biophysical properties and ecosystem responses to restoration practices. We then applied the spatial framework to East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC), Tennessee (USA), a system receiving 30 years of remediation and pollution abatement actions from intense industrialization, pollution, and urbanization. Out of >13,000 stream reaches, we identified anywhere from 4 to 48 reaches, depending on the scenario, that could be used in restoration planning and monitoring for specific sites. Furthermore, comparison of fish species composition at these sites compared to EFPC sites were used to generate hypotheses of mechanisms limiting the ecological recovery following remediation. We suggest that understanding the relative role of anthropogenic pressures in governing ecosystem responses is required to successful, process-driven restoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental Validation of a Resilient Monitoring and Control System

Complex, high performance, engineering systems have to be closely monitored and controlled to ensure safe operation and protect public from potential hazards. One of the main challenges in designing monitoring and control algorithms for these systems is that sensors and actuators may be malfunctioning due to malicious or natural causes. To address this challenge, this paper addresses a resilient monitoring and control (ReMAC) system by expanding previously developed resilient condition assessment monitoring systems and Kalman filter-based diagnostic methods and integrating them with a supervisory controller developed here. While the monitoring and diagnostic algorithms assess plant cyber and physical health conditions, the supervisory controller selects, from a set of candidates, the best controller based on the current plant health assessments. To experimentally demonstrate its enhanced performance, the developed ReMAC system is then used for monitoring and control of a chemical reactor with a water cooling system in a hardware-in-the-loop setting, where the reactor is computer simulated and the water cooling system is implemented by a machine condition monitoring testbed at Idaho National Laboratory. Results show that the ReMAC system is able to make correct plant health assessments despite sensor malfunctioning due to cyber attacks and make decisions that achieve best control actions despite possible actuator malfunctioning. Monitoring challenges caused by mismatches between assumed system component models and actual measurements are also identified for future work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic operation while maintaining adequate safety margins.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

advanced small modular reactor↗

Major safety and operational concerns for fuel debris criticality control

It can be seen from the criticality control viewpoint that the requirement divides the decommissioning work into two parts. One is the present condition where it is requested to prevent criticality and to monitor subcritical condition while the debris is untouched. The other is future work where the subcritical condition shall be ensured even if the debris condition is changed intentionally by raising water level, debris retrieval, etc. Repair of damages on the containment vessel (CV) walls is one of the most important objectives at present in the site. On completion of this task, it will become possible to raise water levels in the CVs and to shield the extremely high radiation emitted from the debris but there is a dilemma: raising the water level in the CVs implies to bring the debris closer to criticality because of the role of water for slowing down neutrons. This may be solved if the coolant water will start circulating in closed loops, and if a sufficient concentration of soluble neutron poison (borated water for instance) will be introduced in the loop. It should be still noted that this solution has a risk of worsening corrosion of the CV walls. Design of the retrieval operation of debris should be proposed as early as possible, which must include a neutron poison concentration required to ensure that the debris chunk is subcritical. In parallel, the development of the measurement system to monitor subcritical condition of the debris chunk should be conducted in case the borated water cannot be used continuously. The system would be based on a neutron counter with a high sensitivity and an appropriate shield for gamma-rays, and the adequate statistical signal processing.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Complexity and entropy representation for machine component diagnostics

The Complexity-entropy causality plane (CECP) is a parsimonious representation space for time series. It has only two dimensions: normalized permutation entropy and Jensen-Shannon complexity of a time series. This two-dimensional representation allows for detection of slow or rapid drifts in the condition of mechanical components monitored through sensor measurements. The CECP representation can be used for both predictive analytics and visual monitoring of changes in component condition. This method requires minimal pre-processing of raw signals. Furthermore, it is insensitive to noise, stationarity, and trends. These desirable properties make CECP a good candidate for machine condition monitoring and fault diagnostics. In this work we study the effectiveness of CECP on three rotary component condition assessment applications. We use CECP representation of vibration signals to differentiate various machine component health conditions for rotary machine components, namely roller bearing and gears. The results confirm that the CECP representation is able to detect, with high accuracy, changes in underlying dynamics of machine component degradation states. From class separability perspective, the CECP representation is able to generate linearly separable classes for the classification of different fault states. This classification performance improves with increasing signal length. For signal length of 16,384 data points, the fault classification accuracy varies from 90% to 100% for bearing applications, and from 85% to 100% for gear applications. We observed that the optimum parameter for CECP representating depends on the application. For bearing applications we found that embedding dimension D = 4, 5, 6, and embedding delay τ = 1, 2, 3 are suitable for good fault classification. For gear applications we find that embedding dimension D = 4, 5, and embedding delay τ = 1, 5 are suitable for fault classification.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Y-12 Groundwater Protection Program Monitoring Well Inspection and Maintenance Plan

This plan describes the systematic approach for: inspecting the physical condition of monitoring wells at Y-12, determining maintenance needs that extend the life of a well, and identifying those wells that no longer meet acceptable monitoring well design or well construction standards and require plugging and abandonment. The inspection and maintenance of groundwater monitoring wells is one of the primary management strategies of the Y-12 Groundwater Protection Program (GWPP) Management Plan, that is, the “proactive stewardship of the extensive monitoring well network at Y-12" (Consolidated Nuclear Security, L.L.C. [CNS], 2018). Effective stewardship, and a program of routine inspections of the physical condition of each monitoring well, ensures that representative water-quality samples and hydrologic data are obtained from the well network and protects the subsurface environment. In accordance with the Y-12 GWPP Monitoring Optimization Plan (MOP) for Groundwater Monitoring Wells at the Y-12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (CNS, 2017), the status designation (active or inactive) for each well determines the scope and extent of well inspections and maintenance activities. This plan, in conjunction with the above document, formalizes the GWPP approach to focus available resources on monitoring wells which provide the most useful data, and for that reason the GWPP inspects and performs maintenance on the wells sampled by the GWPP. This plan applies to groundwater monitoring wells installed at Y-12 and the related waste management facilities located within the three hydrogeologic regimes: (1) the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (Bear Creek Regime), (2) the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (East Fork Regime), and (3) the Chestnut Ridge Hydrogeologic Regime (Chestnut Ridge Regime). The Bear Creek Regime encompasses the section of Bear Creek Valley (BCV) immediately west of Y-12. The East Fork Regime encompasses most of the Y-12 process, operations, and support facilities in BCV west of Scarboro Road. The Chestnut Ridge Regime is directly south of Y-12 and encompasses a section of Chestnut Ridge that is bounded to the west by a surface drainage feature (Dunaway Branch, located immediately west of Industrial Landfill II) and by Scarboro Road to the east. The GWPP maintains an extensive database of geographic and construction details and related information for the monitoring wells in each hydrogeologic regime in the Updated Subsurface Database for Bear Creek Valley, Chestnut Ridge, and Parts of Bethel Valley on the U.S. DOE Oak Ridge Reservation (CNS, 2019). A detailed description of the hydrogeologic framework at Y-12 can be found in the GWPP Management Plan (CNS, 2018).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FERMILAB CRYOMODULE TEST STAND RF INTERLOCK SYSTEM

An interlock system has been designed for the Fermilab Cryo-module Test Stand (CMTS), a test bed for the cryo- modules to be used in the upcoming Linac Coherent Light Source 2 (LCLS-II) project at SLAC. The interlock system features 8 independent subsystems, one per superconducting RF cavity and solid state amplifier (SSA) pair. Each system monitors several devices to detect fault conditions such as arcing in the waveguides or quenching of the SRF system. Additionally each system can detect fault conditions by monitoring the RF power seen at the cavity coupler through a directional coupler. In the event of a fault condition, each system is capable of removing RF signal to the amplifier (via a fast RF switch) as well as turning off the SSA. Additionally, each input signal is available for re- mote viewing and recording via a Fermilab designed digitizer board and MVME 5500 processor.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

2015 Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act (UMTRCA) Title ll Annual Report, L-Bar, New Mexico Disposal Site

The L-Bar, New Mexico, Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act (UMTRCA) Title II Disposal Site was inspected on August 18, 2015. The tailings impoundment was in excellent condition. Erosion and vegetation measurements to monitor the condition of the impoundment cover indicated that no erosion is occurring, and perennial vegetation foliar cover at the measurement plots increased substantially compared to previous years due to above-average precipitation for the year. A short segment of the perimeter fence near the site entrance was realigned in spring 2015 because a gully was undermining the fence corner. Loose fence strands at another location were repaired during the inspection, and a section of fence needs to be realigned to avoid areas affected by deep gullies and sediment deposition. Inspectors identified no other maintenance needs or cause for a follow-up inspection. Groundwater monitoring is required every 3 years. The next monitoring event will be in 2016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wood Decomposition: Understanding Processes Regulating Carbon Transfer to Soil Carbon Pools Using FACE Wood at Multiple Scales

Dead wood comprises approximately 20% of forest biomass. While it is widely recognized for its role in ecosystem functions relative to habitat and nutrient cycling, there are considerable uncertainties associated with its role in the forest carbon (C) cycle. The principal uncertainty is whether dead wood contributes to the soil C pool. With little supporting evidence, the presumption is that C in wood is respired back to the atmosphere through decomposition processes. The inability to attribute forest soil C to its source components has been a barrier to addressing this important forest carbon cycle question. The U.S. Dept. of Energy’s Free Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment produced wood that has a distinct δ 13 C signature that can be used to trace its fate through organic matter decomposition processes. Using two hardwood species (aspen, birch) from the Rhinelander FACE site and pine from the Duke FACE site, the FACE Wood Decomposition Experiment (FWDE) was established in 2011 to provide the foundation for addressing wood decomposition and its associated processes at the continental scale. Plots were installed on nine experimental forests representing a range in bioclimatic forest conditions within the continental U.S. Each identical plot has logs of the three species incubating on the soil surface and pine logs suspended in the air, representing standing dead wood. Abiotic conditions are monitored continuously, and soil and forest conditions characterized. Logs on the sites have been measured every two years to assess decay. This project was initiated in 2016 with specific objectives to: (a) determine whether dead wood C contributes to the soil C pool, (b) assess the fungal community composition mediating the decay, (c) assess the interactions of termites with microbial decay, and (d) develop a mechanistic model to simulate wood decomposition. The principal field sampling was conducted in 2017; correspondingly, the results reported here represent six years of decomposition. Wood decomposition varied from 13 to 75 % loss across the bioclimatic gradient. Sites in the southeastern U.S. coastal plain and piedmont had fastest decomposition rates for each of the species. In contrast sites in the Rocky Mountains had the slowest decay rates, which were associated with cold temperatures. Standing deadwood decomposes at a much slower rate than logs on the soil surface; a response due to differences in wood moisture content. Wood carbon was measured in the mineral soil across each of the sites; accordingly, this is the first study to affirm that a portion of the wood C does become part of the soil C pool. Averaged across the FWDE sites, approximately 1.4% of the soil C in the upper 10 cm of the mineral soil directly beneath the log was derived from the deadwood; within 50 cm of the log, wood C accounted for an average of 2.1%. These results demonstrate that the contribution of deadwood to the soil C pool is a soil volume surrounding the log; and it’s likely a larger volume than what we sampled. We also hypothesized that there would be more wood C in the mineral soil when termites were present. However, that hypothesis wasn’t supported by measurements on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion (SEF-TX) plots under FACE logs that incubated for 6 years. Across all the sites, the majority of the wood C was transferred to the atmosphere. Approximately 7,000 fungal species were sequenced. The fungal communities were different among each of the sites suggesting local colonization; interestingly, within sites the three species also exhibited differences in fungal community composition. White rot was the dominant fungal form in pine and hardwood, which yields less lignin in the wood residue. Brown rot occurred in approximately 20% of the pine and aspen logs, and it did not occur in birch logs. The occurrence of brown rot was only weakly correlated to site factors. We conducted two additional experiments to assess the effects of termites on wood decomposition and the associated interactions with the fungal community. Pine and birch logs were incubated on the Santee Experimental Forest termite exclusion plots in upland and riparian settings. There was no difference in decay between areas where termites were able colonize and plots where they had been excluded. Highly variable foraging by termites was a primary contributor the result. Correspondingly, fungal communities did not vary on logs incubated among the two treatments, but they did reflect site and species differences. The second experiment was conducted on each of the nine FWDE sites where pine and birch wood blocks were incubated for two years with and without a wrapping designed to exclude termites and other arthropods. The effects of termites on wood decomposition could be confirmed on two of the four sites known to have subterranean termites. On the two southeastern sites, termites contributed approximately 8% to mass loss in pine blocks over two years. A major factor clouding the role of termites in wood decomposition is the inability to assess the time, duration, and intensity of the foraging with the logs. Another uncertainty is related to whether a piece of wood will be foraged. A process-based wood decomposition model was developed representing biological processes mediated by fungi, bacteria, termites, beetles, as well as physical and chemical processes. The Coarse Wood Decomposition Model (CWDM) was parameterized based on a thorough review of the literature and it was validated using data from the FWDE. In the initial setup, the model considers softwoods and hardwoods groups, as opposed to individual species. Sensitivity analyses incorporating climate data from 89 locations in North America demonstrated that CWDM was stable from the tropics to the boreal zone. Model calibration and validation showed it to perform very well. The CWDM is poised for additional testing with subsequent FWDE data as well as other data sets, and it is available for incorporation into forest biogeochemical models or DOEs Earth System Modeling framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiological and Environmental Monitoring at the Clean Slate I and III Sites, Tonopah Test Range, Nevada, With Emphasis on the Implications for Off-site Transport

In 1963, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (formerly the Atomic Energy Commission [AEC]) implemented Operation Roller Coaster on the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) and an adjacent area of the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR) (formerly the Nellis Air Force Range [NAFR]). Operation Roller Coaster consisted of four tests in which chemical explosions were detonated in the presence of nuclear devices to assess the dispersal of radionuclides and evaluate the effectiveness of storage structures to contain the ejected radionuclides. These tests resulted in the dispersal of plutonium over the ground surface downwind of the test ground zero (GZ). Three tests—Clean Slate I, II, and III—were conducted on the TTR in Cactus Flat. The fourth, Double Tracks, was conducted in Stonewall Flat on the NTTR. The Desert Research Institute (DRI) installed two monitoring stations in 2008, Station 400 at the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Range Operations Center (ROC) and Station 401 at Clean Slate III. Station 402 was installed at Clean Slate I in 2011 to measure radiological, meteorological, and dust conditions. The monitoring activity was implemented to determine if radionuclide contamination in the soil at the Clean Slate sites was being transported beyond the contamination area boundaries. Some of the data collected also permits comparison of radiological exposure at the TTR monitoring stations to conditions observed at Community Environmental Monitoring Program (CEMP) stations around the NTTR. Annual average gross alpha values from the TTR monitoring stations are higher than values from the surrounding CEMP stations. Annual average gross beta values from the TTR monitoring stations are generally lower than values observed for the surrounding CEMP stations. This may be due to use of sample filters with larger pore space because when glass-fiber filters began to be used at TTR Station 400, gross beta values increased. Gamma spectroscopy typically identified only naturally occurring radionuclides. The radionuclides cesium-134 and -137 were identified in only two samples at each station collected in the weeks following the destruction of the nuclear power reactor in Fukushima, Japan, on March 11, 2011. Observed gamma energy values never exceeded the local background by more than 4 μR/h. The higher observed gamma values were coincident with wind from any of the cardinal directions, which suggests that there is no significant transport from the Clean Slate contamination areas. Annual average daily gamma values at the TTR stations are higher than at the surrounding CEMP stations, but they are equivalent to or just slightly higher than the background estimates made at locations at equivalent elevations, such as Denver, Colorado. Winds in excess of approximately 15 mph begin to resuspend soil particles and create dust, but dust generation is also affected by soil temperature, relative humidity, and soil water content. Power curves provide good predictive equations for dust concentration as a function of wind speed. However, winds in the highest wind speed category occur infrequently.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive responses of the cardiovascular system to prolonged spaceflight conditions: assessment with Holter monitoring

This article presents selected findings obtained with Holter monitoring from two crew members of the expedition, performed during a 175-day space mission on board orbital space station "MIR." Using mathematical processing of daily cardiointervals files, 5-minute sections of records were analyzed consecutively. Then, the average daily values of indices, the average-per-every-eight-hours values (morning, evening, night) and mean values per hour were computed. The results of analysis showed that prolonged exposure of man to microgravity conditions leads to important functional alteration in human neuroautonomic regulatory mechanisms. Both crew members had significant increase of heart rate, the rise of stress index, the decrease in power of the spectrum in the range of respiratory sinus arrhythmia. These marked signs of activation of the sympathetic section of the vegetative nervous system showed individual variations. The analysis of the daily collection of cardiointervals with Holter monitoring allows us to understand and forecast the functional feasibilities of the human organism under a variety of stress conditions associated with acute and chronic microgravity exposure.

manned↗

20 Channel Quench Detector

A multi-channel quench detector is useful for troubleshooting of prototype HTC superconducting magnets with current lead connections and imbedded splices. There are commercially available quench detectors, but not with as many channels, or with the particular functionality of this unit. This unit was designed specifically for cold testing of a superconducting sextupole prototype, which is wound with many turns of HTC ribbon. Associated with the current lead connections and the imbedded splices are 18 voltage taps, thus 17 quench detection channels are required to monitor the condition of the magnet. Of the 20 differential input channels in this quench detection unit, 19 are configured in a ladder network. The 20th channel is isolated and can be connected across any pair of voltage taps. This quench detector is designed to be used to monitor the condition of a series-connected superconducting magnet powered by a unipolar supply, and therefore the polarity and sequence of the voltage taps must be observed. There are 20 toggle switches and 20 red LEDs on the front panel of the unit which are associated with the 20 quench detection channels. There are also 2 green LEDs to indicate the state of the +5 V and +25 V internal supplies. Channel input impedance is ~10 kΩ. The input lines are diode protected against negative voltage transients and can tolerate up to +25 V, which is greater than the compliance of supplies typically used to power superconducting magnets. The front panel switches are used to enable or disable individual channels. If a channel is not used it is disabled. There are 20 pots on the quench detector PCB. They provide adjustment for the sensitivity of each of the 20 channels. There is an onboard reference to facilitate channel sensitivity calibration. The detection sensitivity range is from ~27 mV to ~700 mV. Typically all channels are set for the same sensitivity. The response time is ~20 μs, but the time constant can be increased if desired by adding a single capacitor to each channel. When the magnet under test is cooled to the superconducting state and the supply current to the windings is slowly ramped up to the set point, if there is a voltage rise across a pair of voltage taps which exceeds the quench detection limit of a given channel, then the front panel LED for that channel illuminates and all other channels are disabled within ~25 ns. Thus only the first quench is detected for the channels which are enabled. A pushbutton switch on the front panel is used to reset a quench detection. A 25 pin D-subminiature connector on the back of the unit is used for the channel inputs. TTL level ‘quench’ and ‘quench-not’ signals, and DPDT relay contacts, are provided through a 9 pin D-subminiature connector on the back to indicate a detected quench condition, which could be used to disable the power supply and engage an energy absorber.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Patient Monitoring

In photo above, the electrocardiogram of a hospitalized patient is being transmitted by telemetry. Widely employed in space operations, telemetry is a process wherein instrument data is converted to electrical signals and sent to a receiver where the signals are reconverted to usable information. In this instance, heart readings are picked up by the electrode attached to the patient's body and delivered by wire to the small box shown, which is a telemetry transmitter. The signals are relayed wirelessly to the console in the background, which converts them to EKG data. The data is displayed visually and recorded on a printout; at the same time, it is transmitted to a central control station (upper photo) where a nurse can monitor the condition of several patients simultaneously. The Patient Monitoring System was developed by SCI Systems, Inc., Huntsville, Alabama, in conjunction with Abbott Medical Electronics, Houston, Texas. In developing the system, SCI drew upon its extensive experience as a NASA contractor. The company applied telemetry technology developed for the Saturn launch vehicle and the Apollo spacecraft; instrumentation technology developed for heart, blood pressure and sleep monitoring of astronauts aboard NASA's Skylab long duration space station; and communications technology developed for the Space Shuttle.

Source record↗

Vegetation Monitoring Optimization with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Evapotranspiration Using Remote Sensing Measurements and Land Surface Models Over East Africa

The majority of people in East Africa rely on the agro-pastoral system for their livelihood, which is highly vulnerable to droughts and flooding. Agro-pastoral droughts are endemic to the region and are considered the main natural hazard that contributes to food insecurity. Drought begins with rainfall deficit, gradually leading to soil moisture deficit, higher land surface temperature, and finally impacts to vegetation growth. Therefore, monitoring vegetation conditions is essential in understanding the progression of drought, potential effects on food security, and providing early warning information needed for drought mitigation decisions. Because vegetation processes couple the land and atmosphere, monitoring of vegetation conditions requires consideration of both water provision and demand. While there is consensus in using either the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or evapotranspiration(ET) for vegetation monitoring, a comprehensive assessment optimizing the use of both has not yet been done. Moreover, the evaluation methods for understanding the relationships between NDVI and ET for vegetation monitoring are also limited. Taking these gaps into account we have developed a framework to optimize vegetation monitoring using both NDVI and ET by identifying where they perform the best by using triple collocation and cross-correlation methods. We estimated the random error structure in Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI; ET from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model; and ET from land surface models (LSMs). LSM ET and SSEBop ET have been found to be better indicators for vegetation monitoring during extreme drought events, while NDVI could provide better information on vegetation condition during wetter than normal conditions. The random error structures of these variables suggest that LSM ET is most likely to provide important information for vegetation monitoring over low and high ends of the vegetation fraction areas. Over moderate vegetative areas, any of these variables could provide important vegetation information for drought characterization and food security assessments. While this study provides a framework for optimizing vegetation monitoring for drought and food security assessments over East Africa, the framework can be adopted to optimize vegetation monitoring over any other drought and food insecure region of the world.

triple collocation↗