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Titan's Winter Polar Vortex

Titan's atmosphere has provided an interesting study in contrasts and similarities with Earth's. While both have N$_2$ as the dominant constituent and comparable surface pressures $\sim1$ bar, Titan's next most abundant molecule is CH$_4$, not O$_2$, and the dissociative breakup of CH$_4$ and N$_2$ by sunlight and electron impact leads to a suite of hydrocarbons and nitriles, and ultimately the photochemical smog that enshrouds the moon. In addition, with a 15.95-day period, Titan is a slow rotator compared to Earth. While the mean zonal terrestrial winds are geostrophic, Titan's are mostly cyclostrophic, whipping around the moon in as little as 1 day. Despite the different dynamical regime, Titan's winter stratosphere exhibits several characteristics that should be familiar to terrestrial meteorologists. The cold winter pole near the 1 -mbar level is circumscribed by strong winds (up to 190 m/s) that act as a barrier to mixing with airmasses at lower latitudes. There is evidence of enhancement of several organic species over the winter pole, indicating subsidence. The adiabatic heating associated with this subsidence gives rise to a warm anomaly at the 0.01-mbar level, raising the stratopause two scale heights above its location at equatorial latitudes. Condensate ices have been detected in Titan's lower stratosphere within the winter polar vortex from infrared spectra. Although not always unambiguously identified, their spatial distribution exhibits a sharp gradient, decreasing precipitously across the vortex away from the winter pole. The interesting question of whether there is important heterogeneous chemistry occurring within the polar vortex, analogous to that occurring in the terrestrial polar stratospheric clouds in the ozone holes, has not been addressed. The breakup of Titan's winter polar vortex has not yet been observed. On Earth, the polar vortex is nonlinearly disrupted by interaction with large-amplitude planetary waves. Large-scale waves have not been identified in Titan's atmosphere, so the decay of its polar vortex may be more gradual than on Earth. Observations from an extended Cassini mission into late northern spring should provide critical data indicating whether the vortex goes away with a bang or just fades away.

Flasar, F.M.↗

Challenges in Remote-Sensing of Hail: Examining the Performance and Biases of Satellite Hail Retrievals Using Aqua MODIS Visible/IR and AMSR-E Passive-Microwave Observations

Hail poses threats to myriad aspects of human life and society, infrastructure, and agriculture. Scientifically, hail can often cause large errors in precipitation retrieval and estimation, posing challenges to establishing the current climatology of severe storms and their future trend in a changing Earth system. Fortunately, hailstorms exhibit distinct signatures in spaceborne remote-sensing datasets (e.g. overshooting cloud tops in visible/IR, or brightness temperature depressions in passive-microwave imagery). Approaches that leverage these signatures, however, are not without their pitfalls,: passive-microwave channels have large footprints and exhibit non-uniform beam filling. Visible/IR instruments have fine horizontal resolution but are limited by their insensitivity to processes occurring below cloud top. Large horizontal areas of smaller scatterers may also meaningfully lower the brightness temperatures, especially if they are able to occupy large portions of the footprint. Radiative transfer simulations show that low frequencies such as 19- and 37-GHz can be scattered to extremely low brightness temperatures by high concentrations of smaller (graupel-sized) ice scatterers, especially in larger features that are more likely to occupy the footprint, which may cause climatologies to overestimate the frequency severe hail. To address this, we investigate the nearly simultaneous and colocated MODIS (visible/IR) and AMSR-E (passive-microwave) onboard the Aqua satellite to leverage both datasets together, pairing AMSR-E and MODIS signatures of severe convection with ground-based weather radar, severe weather reports, and environmental parameters defined by the MERRA-2 reanalysis over CONUS, and then explore the performance and challenges of the algorithm when we expand outside the United States into six different geographical regimes throughout the Aqua domain.

Sarah D Bang↗

Quantifying Global Uncertainties in a Simple Microwave Rainfall Algorithm

While a large number of methods exist in the literature for retrieving rainfall from passive microwave brightness temperatures, little has been written about the quantitative assessment of the expected uncertainties in these rainfall products at various time and space scales. The latter is the result of two factors: sparse validation sites over most of the world's oceans, and algorithm sensitivities to rainfall regimes that cause inconsistencies against validation data collected at different locations. To make progress in this area, a simple probabilistic algorithm is developed. The algorithm uses an a priori database constructed from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) radar data coupled with radiative transfer computations. Unlike efforts designed to improve rainfall products, this algorithm takes a step backward in order to focus on uncertainties. In addition to inversion uncertainties, the construction of the algorithm allows errors resulting from incorrect databases, incomplete databases, and time- and space-varying databases to be examined. These are quantified. Results show that the simple algorithm reduces errors introduced by imperfect knowledge of precipitation radar (PR) rain by a factor of 4 relative to an algorithm that is tuned to the PR rainfall. Database completeness does not introduce any additional uncertainty at the global scale, while climatologically distinct space/time domains add approximately 25% uncertainty that cannot be detected by a radiometer alone. Of this value, 20% is attributed to changes in cloud morphology and microphysics, while 5% is a result of changes in the rain/no-rain thresholds. All but 2%-3% of this variability can be accounted for by considering the implicit assumptions in the algorithm. Additional uncertainties introduced by the details of the algorithm formulation are not quantified in this study because of the need for independent measurements that are beyond the scope of this paper. A validation strategy for these errors is outlined.

Kummerow, Christian↗

Internal Heterogeneous Processes in Aluminum Combustion

This paper discusses the aluminum particle combustion mechanism which has been expanded by inclusion of gas dissolution processes and ensuing internal phase transformations. This mechanism is proposed based on recent normal and microgravity experiments with particles formed and ignited in a pulsed micro-arc. Recent experimental findings on the three stages observed in Al particle combustion in air and shows the burning particle radiation, trajectory (streak), smoke cloud shapes, and quenched particle interiors are summarized. During stage I, the radiation trace is smooth and the particle flame is spherically symmetric. The temperature measured using a three-color pyrometer is close to 3000 K. Because it exceeds the aluminum boiling point (2730 K), this temperature most likely characterizes the vapor phase flame zone rather than the aluminum surface. The dissolved oxygen content within particles quenched during stage I was below the detection sensitivity (about 1 atomic %) for Wavelength Dispersive Spectroscopy (WDS). After an increase in the radiation intensity (and simultaneous decrease in the measured color temperature from about 3000 to 2800 K) indicative of the transition to stage II combustion, the internal compositions of the quenched particles change. Both oxygen-rich (approx. 10 atomic %) and oxygen-lean (< 1 %) regions are identified within the particles using back-scattered electron imaging and WDS. During stage II, oscillations are observed in particle radiation and the flame and smoke cloud are distorted from their original spherically-symmetric shape. In stage III, particle radiation continues to exhibit oscillations, but its radiation intensity drops and remains at a nearly constant level. The measured temperature decreases to about 2300 K. Also, larger changes in particle velocities are observed, and oxide caps are found on quenched particle surfaces. While these results showed the correlation between the aluminum particle combustion behavior and the evolution of its internal composition, the change from the spherically symmetric to asymmetric flame shape occurring upon the transition from stage I to stage II combustion could not be understood based only on the fact that dissolved oxygen is detected in the particles. The connection between the two phenomena appeared even less significant because in earlier aluminum combustion studies carried in O2/Ar mixtures, flame asymmetry was not observed as opposed to experiments in air or O2/CO mixtures. It has been proposed that the presence of other gases, i.e., hydrogen, or nitrogen causes the change in the combustion regime.

Dreizin, E. L.↗

A meteorological interpretation of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B flight series

The Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B was conducted to determine the summertime tropospheric distribution, sources, and sinks of important trace gas and aerosol species over the wetlands and boreal forests of central and eastern Canada. Isentropic trajectories and analyzed midtropospheric circulation patterns were used to group flights according to the transport histories of polar, midlatitude, or tropical air masses which were sampled. These data were then divided into bands of potential temperature levels representing the low, middle, and maximum aircraft altitudes to assess the effects of both local and long distance transport and natural and man-made pollutants to the measured chemical species. Detailed case studies are provided to depict the complex three-dimensional airflow regimes that transported air with differing chemical signatures to the study area. Mission 6 details the large-scale movement of smoke in the generally prevailing west to northwesterly airflow that was observed on the majority of flights. Mission 1 analyzes the horizontal and vertical motions of maritime Pacific air in the upper troposphere that was routinely mixed downward to the aircraft altitude. Finally, mission 14 tracks the far northward excursion of tropical air that had been associated with a Pacific typhoon. The following three factors all had important influences on the collected chemical data sets: (1) local and distant stratospheric in puts into the upper and middle troposphere; (2) biomass-burning plumes from active fires in Alaska and Canada; (3) a band of 'low ozone' upper tropospheric air that was observed by airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) above the aircraft maximum altitude. Other modification factors observed on some flights included urban pollution from U.S. and Canadian cities, tropical air that had been associated with a Pacific typhoon, and precipitation scavenging by clouds and rain. Many flights were affected by several of the above factors which led to complex chemical signatures that will be discussed in other companion papers.

Shipham, Mark C.↗

Interaction of the terrestrial and atmospheric hydrological cycles in the context of the North American southwest summer monsoon

Work under this grant has used information on precipitation and water vapor fluxes in the area of the Mexican Monsoon to analyze the regional precipitation climatology, to understand the nature of water vapor transport during the monsoon using model and observational data, and to analyze the ability of the TRMM remote sensing algorithm to characterize precipitation. An algorithm for estimating daily surface rain volumes from hourly GOES infrared images was developed and compared to radar data. Estimates were usually within a factor of two, but different linear relations between satellite reflectances and rainfall rate were obtained for each day, storm type and storm development stage. This result suggests that using TRMM sensors to calibrate other satellite IR will need to be a complex process taking into account all three of the above factors. Another study, this one of the space-time variability of the Mexican Monsoon, indicate that TRMM will have a difficult time, over the course of its expected three year lifetime, identifying the diurnal cycle of precipitation over monsoon region. Even when considering monthly rainfalls, projected satellite estimates of August rainfall show a root mean square error of 38 percent. A related examination of spatial variability of mean monthly rainfall using a novel method for removing the effects of elevation from gridded gauge data, show wide variation from a satellite-based rainfall estimates for the same time and space resolution. One issue addressed by our research, relating to the basic character of the monsoon circulation, is the determination of the source region for moisture. The monthly maps produced from our study of monsoon variability show the presence of two rainfall maxima in the analysis normalized to sea level, one in south-central Arizona associated with the Mexican monsoon maximum and one in southeastern New Mexico associated with the Gulf of Mexico. From the point of view of vertically-integrated fluxes and flux divergence of water vapor from ECMWF data, most moisture at upper levels arrives from the Gulf of Mexico, while low level moisture comes from the northern Gulf of California. Composites of ECMWF analyses for wet and dry periods (classified by rain gauge data) show that both regimes show low level moisture arriving from northern and central Gulf of California. Above 700 MB, moisture comes from both source regions and the Sierra Madre Occidental. During wet periods a longer fetch through the moist air mass above western Mexico results in a greater moisture flux into the Sonoran Desert region, while there is less moisture from the Gulf of Mexico both above and below 700 mb. Work on the grant subcontract at the University of Colorado concentrated on the development of a technique useful to TRMM combining visible, infrared and passive microwave data for measuring precipitation. Two established techniques using either visible or infrared data applied over the US Southwest correlated with gauges at the 0.58 to 0.70 level. The application of some established passive microwave techniques were less successful for a variety of reason, including problems in both the gauge and satellite data quality, sampling problems and weaknesses inherent in the algorithms themselves. A more promising solution for accurate rainfall estimation was explored using visible and infrared data to perform a cloud classification, which when combined with information about the background (e.g. Iand/ocean), was used to select the most appropriate microwave algorithm from a suite of possibilities.

Dickinson, Robert E.↗

CALIPSO Level 3 Stratospheric Aerosol Product: Version 1.00 Algorithm Description and Initial Assessment

In August 2018,the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) project released a new level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile data product derived from nearly 12 years of measurements acquired by the space-borne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP).This monthly averaged, gridded level 3 product is based on version 4.2 of the CALIOP level 1 and level 2 data products, which feature significantly improved calibration that now makes it possible to reliably retrieve profiles of stratospheric aerosol extinction and backscatter coefficients. This paper describes the science algorithm and data handling techniques that were developed to generate the CALIPSO version 1.00 level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile product. Further, we show that the retrieved extinction profiles capture the major stratospheric perturbations over the last decade resulting from volcanic eruptions, extreme smoke events, and signatures of stratospheric dynamics. Initial assessment of the product by inter-comparison with the stratospheric aerosol retrievals from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) on the International Space Station (ISS) indicates good agreement in the tropical stratospheric aerosol layer (30oN-30oS),where the average difference between zonal mean extinction profiles is typically less than 25% between 20km and 30km. However, differences can exceed 100% in the very low aerosol loading regimes found above 25 km at higher latitudes.

Jayanta Kar↗

Ground-Based High Spectral Resolution Lidar Observation of Aerosol Vertical Distribution in the Summertime Southeast United States

As part of the Southeast United States-based Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS), and collinear with part of the Southeast Atmosphere Study, the University of Wisconsin High Spectral Resolution Lidar system was deployed to the University of Alabama from 19 June to 4 November 2013. With a collocated Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer, a nearby Chemical Speciation Network (PM2.5) measurement station, and near daily ozonesonde releases for the August-September SEAC4RS campaign, the site allowed the regions first comprehensive diurnal monitoring of aerosol particle vertical structure. A 532nm lidar ratio of 55 sr provided good closure between aerosol backscatter and AERONET (aerosol optical thickness, AOT). A principle component analysis was performed to identify key modes of variability in aerosol backscatter. ''Fair weather'' days exhibited classic planetary boundary layer structure of a mixed layer accounting for approx. 50% of AOT and an entrainment zone providing another 25%. An additional 5-15% of variance is gained from the lower free troposphere from either convective detrainment or frequent intrusions of western United States biomass burning smoke. Generally, aerosol particles were contained below the 0 C level, a common level of stability in convective regimes. However, occasional strong injections of smoke to the upper troposphere were also observed, accounting for the remaining 10-15% variability in AOT. Examples of these common modes of variability in frontal and convective regimes are presented, demonstrating why AOT often has only a weak relationship to surface PM2.5 concentration.

HSRL↗

Derivation of Aerosol Profiles for MC3E Convection Studies and Use in Simulations of the 20 May Squall Line Case

Advancing understanding of deep convection microphysics via mesoscale modeling studies of well-observed case studies requires observation-based aerosol inputs. Here, we derive hygroscopic aerosol size distribution input profiles from ground-based and airborne measurements for six convection case studies observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) over Oklahoma. We demonstrate use of an input profile in simulations of the only well-observed case study that produced extensive stratiform outflow on 20 May 2011. At well-sampled elevations between −11 and −23 C over widespread stratiform rain, ice crystal number concentrations are consistently dominated by a single mode near approx. 400 microm in randomly oriented maximum dimension (Dmax). The ice mass at −23 C is primarily in a closely collocated mode, whereas a mass mode near Dmax approx. 1000 microns becomes dominant with decreasing elevation to the −11 C level, consistent with possible aggregation during sedimentation. However, simulations with and without observation-based aerosol inputs systematically overpredict mass peak Dmax by a factor of 3-5 and underpredict ice number concentration by a factor of 4-10. Previously reported simulations with both two-moment and size-resolved microphysics have shown biases of a similar nature. The observed ice properties are notably similar to those reported from recent tropical measurements. Based on several lines of evidence, we speculate that updraft microphysical pathways determining outflow properties in the 20 May case are similar to a tropical regime, likely associated with warm-temperature ice multiplication that is not well understood or well represented in models.

Fridlind, Ann M.↗

"Dust Devils": Gardening Agents on the Surface of Mars, and Hidden Hazards to Human Exploration?

Dust devils are familiar sites in the and regions of the world: they can produce quite spectacular displays of dust lofting when the vortices scavenge very loose dust from a dry lake bed or from recently disturbed agricultural fields. If one were to arrive at the center of an arid region, take one photograph, or even a series of photographs over a period of several days, then return the images for laboratory analysis, it would be most likely concluded that the region was inactive from an aeolian perspective. No images of general dust movement were obtained, nor were any dust devils "caught on camera" owing to their ephemeral and unpredictable appearance, and the fact that there was deceptively little residue of their actions. If, however, a camera were to take a 360 degree continuous recording over a period of a year, and the film were then to be shown at high speed over a period a several minutes, the impression might be that of a region ravaged by air vorticity and dust movement. Extrapolate this over geological time, and it is possible to visualize dust devils as prime aeolian agents, rather than insignificant vagaries of nature, On Mars, the thin atmosphere permits the surface of the planet to be heated but it does not itself retain heat with the capacity of the earth's atmosphere. This gives rise to greater thermal instability near the surface of Mars as "warm" air pockets diapiritically inject themselves into higher atmospheric layers. Resulting boundary-layer vorticity on Mars might therefore be expected to produce dust devils in abundance, if only seasonally. The spectacular images of dust devils obtained by Pathfinder within its brief functional period on the planet testify to the probability of highly frequent surface vorticity in light of the above reasoning about observational probability. Notably, the Pathfinder devils appeared to be at least a kilometer in height. There are several consequences for the geology of Mars, and for human exploration, if dust devils are to be expected in reasonable abundance. First, from a geological perspective, the vortices will act as "gardening" agents for the top few centimeters of entrainable material. Over time (hundreds of millions, or billions of years being available), they will cover the surface with scouring paths, and the grain sizes that can be lofted by a vortex probably extends over the whole sand to dust range. The depositional paths are, of course, much larger, so that vortex-induced deposition is more widespread than vortex-induced erosion, and will without doubt, affect the whole region in which the dust devils occur (this might explain why rocks at the Viking site seemed oddly capped with dust in a region apparently subject to general aeolian scouring). On Mars, the lift forces in dust devils might be less than on earth owing to the much thinner atmosphere, but this may be counterbalanced by lower gravity and greater vortex velocities. Certainly, when active, other aeolian phenomena on Mars --sand motion and dust storms, seem no less energetic and no less capable of lofting sediments than equivalent terrestrial aeolian phenomena. Every several years, within the current climatic regime, the surface of Mars is subject to light dust fall from global dust storms. Over time, this should develop a very uniform surface layer, with commensurate uniformity in grain size, mineralogy, albedo, color, and general spectroscopic properties. Dust devils will disturb this situation by continually mixing the surface dust with underlying layers, perhaps composed of silt and sand. This size mixing will also involve compositional mixing. After some years, the thin layer of dust that may be difficult to entrain alone, becomes progressively mixed with coarser materials that could reduce the general aeolian threshold of the soil. Certainly the continual disturbance by vorticity will prevent surface stabilization that may bind or indurate grains (caused by slow cementation or ice welding at grain boundaries). If dust devils continually loft dust to kilometer heights, and the dust is sprayed into many cubic kilometers of atmosphere each time, could the devils produce a continual background of atmospheric dust that might be mistaken for the fallout of a distant large-scale dust storm? From a human exploration perspective, dust devils are unlikely to pose any, life- threatening situation for an astronaut unfortunate enough to encounter a momentary swirling cloud of loose soil. However, it is noted that pervasive dust is probably one of the greatest long-term hazards for a human encampment. The fineness and penetration capabilities of the dust, its electrostatic adhesive properties, and its complete ubiquity, render the material a persistent nuisance at best, but at worst, over a period of many months it is possible that space suits, machinery, habitat interiors, air filters, and so forth, could become jeopardized. Owing to dust penetration, the space suits used in the Apollo landings were rendered unusable after a few EVA activities. There will be a definite attempt to situate a human colony on Mars in an area that is far removed from the regions of the planet known for being the centers of major dust storms. At the heart of these storm systems, the dust lofting mechanics are unknown, but they are energetic and perhaps potentially life-threatening for an astronaut. Locating a colony in a region that appears from space to be meteorologically benign may lead to colony placement in a region prone to dust devils, but dust devils are not (or have not been) detectable from orbital observations: the region surveyed for placement will appear like the apparently inactive and area referred to earlier. The region may be spared from highly energetic weather systems, but it may not be necessarily immune from continual dust disturbance. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J.↗

Derivation of Aerosol Profiles for MC3E Convection Studies and Use in Simulations of the 20 May Squall Line Case

Advancing understanding of deep convection microphysics via mesoscale modeling studies of well-observed case studies requires observation-based aerosol inputs. Here, we derive hygroscopic aerosol size distribution input profiles from ground-based and airborne measurements for six convection case studies observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) over Oklahoma. We demonstrate use of an input profile in simulations of the only well-observed case study that produced extensive stratiform outflow on 20 May 2011. At well-sampled elevations between -11 and -23 degree C over widespread stratiform rain, ice crystal number concentrations are consistently dominated by a single mode near 400 micrometer in randomly oriented maximum dimension (D[superscript max] ). The ice mass at -23 degree C is primarily in a closely collocated mode, whereas a mass mode near D[superscript max] -1000 micrometer becomes dominant with decreasing elevation to the -11 degree C level, consistent with possible aggregation during sedimentation. However, simulations with and without observation-based aerosol inputs systematically overpredict mass peak D[superscript max] by a factor of 3-5 and underpredict ice number concentration by a factor of 4-10. Previously reported simulations with both two-moment and size-resolved microphysics have shown biases of a similar nature. The observed ice properties are notably similar to those reported from recent tropical measurements. Based on several lines of evidence, we speculate that updraft microphysical pathways determining outflow properties in the 20 May case are similar to a tropical regime, likely associated with warm-temperature ice multiplication that is not well understood or well represented in models.

Fridlind, Ann M.↗

A Dark Target research aerosol algorithm for MODIS observations over eastern China: increasing coverage while maintaining accuracy at high aerosol loading

Satellite aerosol products such as the Dark Target (DT) produced from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are useful for monitoring the progress of air pollution. Unfortunately, the DT often fails to retrieve during the heaviest aerosol events as well as the more moderate events in winter. Some of the literature at-tributes this lack of retrieval to the cloud mask. However, we found this lack of retrieval is mainly traced to thresholds used for masking of inland water and snow. Modifications to these two masks greatly increase 50 % of the retrievals of aerosol optical depth at 0.55 μm (AOD) greater than 1.0. The “extra”-high-AOD retrievals tend to be biased when com-pared with a ground-based sun photometer (AErosol RObotic NETwork, AERONET). Reducing bias in new retrievals re-quires two additional steps. One is an update to the assumed aerosol optical properties (aerosol model); the haze in this region is both less absorbing and lower in altitude than what is assumed in the global algorithm. The second is account-ing for the scale height of the aerosol, specifically that the heavy-aerosol events in the region are much closer to the surface than what is assumed by the global DT algorithm. The resulting combination of modified masking thresholds, new aerosol model, and lower aerosol layer scale height was applied to 3 months of MODIS observations (January–March2013) over eastern China. After these two additional steps are implemented, the significant increase in new retrievals introduces no overall bias at a high-AOD regime but does degrade other overall validation statistics. We also find that the research algorithm is able to identify additional pollution events that AERONET instruments may not due to different spatial sampling. Mean AOD retrieved from the re-search algorithm increases from 0.11 to 0.18 compared to values calculated from the operational DT algorithm during January to March of 2013 over the study area. But near Beijing, where the severe pollution occurs, the new algorithm increases AOD by as much as 3.0 for each 0.5°grid box over the previous operational-algorithm values.

Dark Target↗

Evolution of Structure in the Intergalactic Medium and the Nature of the LY-Alpha Forest

We have performed a detailed statistical study of the evolution of structure in a photoionized intergalactic medium (IGM) using analytical simulations to extend the calculation into the mildly nonlinear density regime found to prevail at z = 3. Our work is based on a simple fundamental conjecture: that the probability distribution function of the density of baryonic diffuse matter in the universe is described by a lognormal (LN) random field. The LN distribution has several attractive features and follows plausibly from the assumption of initial linear Gaussian density and velocity fluctuations at arbitrarily early times. Starting with a suitably normalized power spectrum of primordial fluctuations in a universe dominated by cold dark matter (CDM), we compute the behavior of the baryonic matter, which moves slowly toward minima in the dark matter potential on scales larger than the Jeans length. We have computed two models that succeed in matching observations. One is a nonstandard CDM model with OMEGA = 1, h = 0.5, and GAMMA = 0.3, and the other is a low-density flat model with a cosmological constant (LCDM), with OMEGA = 0.4, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) = 0.6, and h = 0.65. In both models, the variance of the density distribution function grows with time, reaching unity at about z = 4, where the simulation yields spectra that closely resemble the Ly-alpha forest absorption seen in the spectra of high-z quasars. The calculations also successfully predict the observed properties of the Ly-alpha forest clouds and their evolution from z = 4 down to at least z = 2, assuming a constant intensity for the metagalactic UV background over this redshift range. However, in our model the forest is not due to discrete clouds, but rather to fluctuations in a continuous intergalactic medium. At z = 3; typical clouds with measured neutral hydrogen column densities N(sub H I) = 10(exp 13.3), 10(exp 13.5), and 10(exp 11.5) /sq cm correspond to fluctuations with mean total densities approximately 10, 1, and 0.1 times the universal mean baryon density. Perhaps surprisingly, fluctuations whose amplitudes are less than or equal to the mean density still appear as "clouds" because in our model more than 70% of the volume of the IGM at z = 3 is filled with gas at densities below the mean value.

Bi, Hongguang↗

The 183-WSL Fast Rain Rate Retrieval Algorithm. Part II: Validation Using Ground Radar Measurements

The Water vapour Strong Lines at 183 GHz (183-WSL) algorithm is a method for the retrieval of rain rates and precipitation type classification (convectivestratiform), that makes use of the water vapor absorption lines centered at 183.31 GHz of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit module B (AMSU-B) and of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) flying on NOAA-15-18 and NOAA-19Metop-A satellite series, respectively. The characteristics of this algorithm were described in Part I of this paper together with comparisons against analogous precipitation products. The focus of Part II is the analysis of the performance of the 183-WSL technique based on surface radar measurements. The ground truth dataset consists of 2.5 years of rainfall intensity fields from the NIMROD European radar network which covers North-Western Europe. The investigation of the 183-WSL retrieval performance is based on a twofold approach: 1) the dichotomous statistic is used to evaluate the capabilities of the method to identify rain and no-rain clouds; 2) the accuracy statistic is applied to quantify the errors in the estimation of rain rates.The results reveal that the 183-WSL technique shows good skills in the detection of rainno-rain areas and in the quantification of rain rate intensities. The categorical analysis shows annual values of the POD, FAR and HK indices varying in the range 0.80-0.82, 0.330.36 and 0.39-0.46, respectively. The RMSE value is 2.8 millimeters per hour for the whole period despite an overestimation in the retrieved rain rates. Of note is the distribution of the 183-WSL monthly mean rain rate with respect to radar: the seasonal fluctuations of the average rainfalls measured by radar are reproduced by the 183-WSL. However, the retrieval method appears to suffer for the winter seasonal conditions especially when the soil is partially frozen and the surface emissivity drastically changes. This fact is verified observing the discrepancy distribution diagrams where2the 183-WSL performs better during the warm months, while during the winter time the discrepancies with radar measurements tends to maximum values. A stable behavior of the 183-WSL algorithm is demonstrated over the whole study period with an overall overestimation for rain rates intensities lower than 1 millimeter per hour. This threshold is crucial especially in wintertime where the low precipitation regime is difficult to be classified.

validationradar↗

Modeling Atmosphere-Ocean Radiative Transfer: A PACE Mission Perspective

The research frontiers of radiative transfer (RT) in coupled atmosphere-ocean systems are explored to enable new science and specifically to support the upcoming Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite mission. Given (i) the multitude of atmospheric and oceanic constituents at any given moment that each exhibits a large variety of physical and chemical properties and (ii) the diversity of light-matter interactions (scattering, absorption, and emission), tackling all outstanding RT aspects related to interpreting and/or simulating light reflected by atmosphere-ocean systems becomes impossible. Instead, we focus on both theoretical and experimental studies of RT topics important to the science threshold and goal questions of the PACE mission and the measurement capabilities of its instruments. We differentiate between (a) forward (FWD) RT studies that focus mainly on sensitivity to influencing variables and/or simulating data sets, and (b) inverse (INV) RT studies that also involve the retrieval of atmosphere and ocean parameters. Our topics cover (1) the ocean (i.e., water body): absorption and elastic/inelastic scattering by pure water (FWD RT) and models for scattering and absorption by particulates (FWD RT and INV RT); (2) the air-water interface: variations in ocean surface refractive index (INV RT) and in whitecap reflectance (INV RT); (3) the atmosphere: polarimetric and/or hyperspectral remote sensing of aerosols (INV RT) and of gases (FWD RT); and (4) atmosphere-ocean systems: benchmark comparisons, impact of the Earth's sphericity and adjacency effects on space-borne observations, and scattering in the ultraviolet regime (FWD RT). We provide for each topic a summary of past relevant (heritage) work, followed by a discussion (for unresolved questions) and RT updates.

Chowdhary, Jacek↗

Development of a Robust and Efficient Parallel Solver for Unsteady Turbomachinery Flows

The traditional design and analysis practice for advanced propulsion systems relies heavily on expensive full-scale prototype development and testing. Over the past decade, use of high-fidelity analysis and design tools such as CFD early in the product development cycle has been identified as one way to alleviate testing costs and to develop these devices better, faster and cheaper. In the design of advanced propulsion systems, CFD plays a major role in defining the required performance over the entire flight regime, as well as in testing the sensitivity of the design to the different modes of operation. Increased emphasis is being placed on developing and applying CFD models to simulate the flow field environments and performance of advanced propulsion systems. This necessitates the development of next generation computational tools which can be used effectively and reliably in a design environment. The turbomachinery simulation capability presented here is being developed in a computational tool called Loci-STREAM [1]. It integrates proven numerical methods for generalized grids and state-of-the-art physical models in a novel rule-based programming framework called Loci [2] which allows: (a) seamless integration of multidisciplinary physics in a unified manner, and (b) automatic handling of massively parallel computing. The objective is to be able to routinely simulate problems involving complex geometries requiring large unstructured grids and complex multidisciplinary physics. An immediate application of interest is simulation of unsteady flows in rocket turbopumps, particularly in cryogenic liquid rocket engines. The key components of the overall methodology presented in this paper are the following: (a) high fidelity unsteady simulation capability based on Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) in conjunction with second-order temporal discretization, (b) compliance with Geometric Conservation Law (GCL) in order to maintain conservative property on moving meshes for second-order time-stepping scheme, (c) a novel cloud-of-points interpolation method (based on a fast parallel kd-tree search algorithm) for interfaces between turbomachinery components in relative motion which is demonstrated to be highly scalable, and (d) demonstrated accuracy and parallel scalability on large grids (approx 250 million cells) in full turbomachinery geometries.

West, Jeff↗

Mesoscale simulations of the November 25-26 and December 5-6 cirrus cases using the RAMS model

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), developed at Colorado State University, was used during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) 2 (13 Nov. through 6 Dec. 1991) to provide real time forecasts of cirrus clouds. Forecasts were run once a day, initializing with the 0000 UTC dataset provided by NOAA (Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS)). In order to obtain better agreement with observations, a second set of simulations were done for the FIRE 2 cases that occurred on 25-26 Nov. and 5-6 Dec. In this set of simulations, a more complex radiation scheme was used, the Chen/Cotton radiation scheme, along with the nucleation of ice occurring at ice supersaturations as opposed to nucleation occurring at water supersaturations that was done in the actual forecast version. The runs using these more complex schemes took longer wall clock time (7-9 hours for the actual forecasts as compared to 12-14 hrs for the runs using the more complex schemes) however, the final results of the simulations were definitely improved upon. Comparisons between these two sets of simulations are given. Now underway are simulations of these cases using a closed analytical solution for the auto-conversion of ice from a pristine ice class (sizes less than about 50 microns in effective diameter) to a snow class (effective diameters on the order of several hundred microns). This solution is employed along with a new scheme for the nucleation of ice crystals due to Meyers et al and Demott et al. The scheme is derived assuming complete gamma distributions for both the pristine and snow classes. The time rate of change of the number concentration and mass mixing-ratio of each distribution is found by calculating either the flux of crystals that grow beyond a certain critical diameter by vapor deposition in an ice supersaturated regime or by calculating the flux of crystals that evaporate to sizes below that same critical effective diameter.

Harrington, J. L.↗

Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourn, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May-September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC (0700 AM EST) each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to increase consistency between forecasters while enabling them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren based on flow regime.

Lambert, Winnie↗