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At least 379 records · Page 21

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (httl://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Until recently, the forecasters created each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent was to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗

Impact of combustion products from Space Shuttle launches on ambient air quality

The present work describes some multilayer diffusion models and a computer program for these models developed to predict the impact of ground clouds formed during Space Shuttle launches on ambient air quality. The diffusion models are based on the Gaussian plume equation for an instantaneous volume source. Cloud growth is estimated on the basis of measurable meteorological parameters: standard deviation of the wind azimuth angle, standard deviation of wind elevation angle, vertical wind-speed shear, vertical wind-direction shear, and depth of the surface mixing layer. Calculations using these models indicate that Space Shuttle launches under a variety of meteorological regimes at Kennedy Space Center and Vandenberg AFB are unlikely to endanger the exposure standards for HCl; similar results have been obtained for CO and Al2O3. However, the possibility that precipitation scavenging of the ground cloud might result in an acidic rain that could damage vegetation has not been investigated.

Dumbauld, R. K.↗

Prediction of pellet mass thresholds for ELM triggering in low-collisionality, ITER-like discharges

Abstract In ITER, pellets are calculated to require more than 8 times the mass than currently planned to reliably trigger edge-localized modes (ELMs). Unmitigated heat flux impulses from ELMs are intolerable in ITER at full power and current. Therefore, ITER operation relies on multiple approaches to control ELM heat fluxes. One method is pellet ELM pacing to instigate small rapid ELMs with low heat flux. Predicting the performance of pellet pacing is critical for ITER, which is expected to operate in a regime with a low-collisionality, peeling-limited pedestal. However, to trigger ELMs the local pressure increase in the expanding pellet cloud pushes the equilibrium over the ballooning stability limit. In this work, linear and nonlinear M3D-C1 simulations are used to predict pellet mass thresholds in DIII-D discharges and ITER scenarios with peeling-limited pedestals. It is found that the distance of the equilibrium’s operational point from the ballooning branch of the pedestal stability boundary strongly changes thresholds. Linear M3D-C1 simulations find a strong dependence of the pellet mass threshold on the poloidal injection location for ITER’s 15 MA, Q = 10 scenario. The required pellet mass at the planned injection locations is 8 to 17 times larger than currently considered. However, such linear simulations do not include pellet ablation physics or time evolution of density and temperature. A new scheme of 2D nonlinear simulations, coupled with linear stability analysis at various steps throughout the nonlinear time evolution, was developed to include such physics and improve on the linear results. These new nonlinear-to-linear simulations confirm previous findings. This result suggests that pellet ELM triggering in ITER could require pellets much larger than those currently planned, which makes ELM-pacing operationally challenging. On the other hand, fueling pellets injected from the high-field side will likely not unintentionally trigger ELMs in an otherwise ELM-stable plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The carbon chemistry in interstellar clouds toward moderately reddened stars

New data for C2 toward X Per, HD 206267, HD 207198, and Gamma Cep, for CH and CN toward X Per, and for CO toward HD 207198 have been obtained. The column densities of CH, C2, CN, and CO toward the stars in the Cepheus OB2 association are similar to reddened directions in Perseus and in Ophiuchus, indicating a similarity in physical conditions for the foreground clouds. The available data for other directions have been analyzed and the resulting data applied to study the transition from a photochemical regime to a chemical regime. The data for N(CN), N(C2), and N(CO) have been plotted against N(CH) to elucidate the chemistry of carbon-bearing molecules more clearly. The observed trends for CN and C2 suggest a change in slope at N(CH) of roughly 5 x 10 to the 13th/sq cm. Below this value, photodestruction is predicted to dominate and the slope is determined by the photochemistry. For directions with more N(CH), a linear correlation consistent with destruction by chemical reactions is expected.

Federman, S. R.↗

On the Feasibility of Monitoring Carbon Monoxide in the Lower Troposphere from a Constellation of Northern Hemisphere Geostationary Satellites (PART 1)

By the end of the current decade, there are plans to deploy several geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite missions for atmospheric composition over North America, East Asia and Europe with additional missions proposed. Together, these present the possibility of a constellation of geostationary platforms to achieve continuous time-resolved high-density observations over continental domains for mapping pollutant sources and variability at diurnal and local scales. In this paper, we use a novel approach to sample a very high global resolution model (GEOS-5 at 7 km horizontal resolution) to produce a dataset of synthetic carbon monoxide pollution observations representative of those potentially obtainable from a GEO satellite constellation with predicted measurement sensitivities based on current remote sensing capabilities. Part 1 of this study focuses on the production of simulated synthetic measurements for air quality OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments). We simulate carbon monoxide nadir retrievals using a technique that provides realistic measurements with very low computational cost. We discuss the sampling methodology: the projection of footprints and areas of regard for geostationary geometries over each of the North America, East Asia and Europe regions; the regression method to simulate measurement sensitivity; and the measurement error simulation. A detailed analysis of the simulated observation sensitivity is performed, and limitations of the method are discussed. We also describe impacts from clouds, showing that the efficiency of an instrument making atmospheric composition measurements on a geostationary platform is dependent on the dominant weather regime over a given region and the pixel size resolution. These results demonstrate the viability of the "instrument simulator" step for an OSSE to assess the performance of a constellation of geostationary satellites for air quality measurements.

GEOS-5↗

Overview of the Predictive Simulation Capability Element of the Plume Surface Interaction Project

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial Plume Surface Interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The GCD PSI Project, planned to be completed over a four year period, contains a Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In addition to the PSC Element, the GCD Program also contains a companion Ground Testing Element for development of focused datasets for validation of predictive capability as well as a Flight-focused Instrumentation Element. This paper describes the PSC Element of the PSI Project as well as providing descriptions of recent accomplishments and remaining work. The overall structure of the PSC Element is broken down into four areas of focus. The first area is the Prediction of Plume Flow in low pressure environments. The development approach taken is the augmentation of the existing production-mode computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool Loci/Chem, with targeted extensions necessary to accurately model rarefied conditions found in both Martian and Lunar applications. Production readiness and validation of predictive capability are the major objectives of this task. The second area is the effect of mixed continuum/rarefied flow on crater development and ejecta sheets. A new CFD application, Loci/GGFS (Gas Granular Flow Solver), is being developed which implements an Eulerian/Eulerian two-phase model of gas- and soil-phases in order to simulate the soil erosion, crater formation, and soil ejecta transport in a fully coupled simulation. This task seeks to verify Loci/GGFS is production-ready as well as perform validation studies to determine the degree of predictive capability achieved by Loci/GGFS. The third area is focused on the details and extension of particle phase modeling of soil. In this task, Discrete Element Modeling (DEM) techniques are used to perform direct simulations of complex soil particles under the action of forcing similar to that to be cause by PSI. The simulation results are then used to construct closures to the Eulerian model of the soil phase used by Loci/GGFS. The fourth area is gas-particle interaction modeling. In this task, experiments are being conducted as well as detailed simulation results are being studied to further understand the complexities of gas-particle interactions in dilute, intermediate, and high soil volume fraction regimes. Improved models of particle drag and the particle turbulent kinetic energy (PTKE) resulting from the interaction of gas flows within particle clouds are the objective of this task.

Jeff West↗

Cool-flame Extinction During N-Alkane Droplet Combustion in Microgravity

Recent droplet combustion experiments onboard the International Space Station (ISS) have revealed that large n-alkane droplets can continue to burn quasi-steadily following radiative extinction in a low-temperature regime, characterized by negative-temperaturecoefficient (NTC) chemistry. In this study we report experimental observations of n-heptane, n-octane, and n-decane droplets of varying initial sizes burning in oxygen/nitrogen/carbon dioxide and oxygen/helium/nitrogen environments at 1.0, 0.7, and 0.5 atmospheric pressures. The oxygen concentration in these tests varied in the range of 14% to 25% by volume. Large n-alkane droplets exhibited quasi-steady low-temperature burning and extinction following radiative extinction of the visible flame while smaller droplets burned to completion or disruptively extinguished. A vapor-cloud formed in most cases slightly prior to or following the "cool flame" extinction. Results for droplet burning rates in both the hot-flame and cool-flame regimes as well as droplet extinction diameters at the end of each stage are presented. Time histories of radiant emission from the droplet captured using broadband radiometers are also presented. Remarkably the "cool flame" extinction diameters for all the three n-alkanes follow a trend reminiscent of the ignition delay times observed in previous studies. The similarities and differences among the n-alkanes during "cool flame" combustion are discussed using simplified theoretical models of the phenomenon

microgravity combustion↗

Low Pressure Experimental Simulation of Electrical Discharges Above and Inside a Cloud

A low pressure laboratory experiment to generate sporadic electrical discharges in either a particulate dielectric or air, representing a competing path of preferred electrical breakdown, was investigated. At high pressures, discharges occurred inside the dielectric particulate; at low pressures, discharges occurred outside the dielectric particulate; at a transition pressure regime, which depends on conductivity of the dielectric particulate, discharges were simultaneously generated in both particulate dielectric and air. Unique use of a particulate dielectric was critical for sporadic discharges at lower pressures which were not identical in character to discharges without the particulate dielectric. Application of these experimental results to the field of atmospheric electricity and simulation of the above-cloud type discharges that have recently been documented, called jets and sprites, are discussed.

Jarzembski, Maurice A.↗

Interactions of laser-driven tin ejecta microjets over phase transition boundaries

Ejecta microjets offer an experimental methodology to study high-speed particle laden-flow interactions, as microjets consist of millions of particulates traveling at velocities of several kilometers per second and are easily generated by most common shock drives. Previous experiments on the OMEGA Extended Performance laser found that collisions between two counter-propagating laser-driven tin ejecta microjets varied as a function of drive pressure; jets generated near shock pressures of 10 GPa passed through each other without interacting, whereas jets generated at shock pressures of over 100 GPa interacted strongly, forming a cloud around the center interaction point. In this paper, we present a more systematic scan of tin ejecta microjet collisions over intermediate pressure regimes to identify how and at what shock pressure interaction behavior onsets. Radiographs of interacting microjets at five different laser drive energies qualitatively demonstrate that interaction behavior onsets slowly as a function of laser drive energy. Quantitative mass and density metrics from each radiograph provide trends on jet characteristics and collisional mass dispersion. It is observed that jetting mass, jet densities, and mass dispersion increase with increasing drive pressures and that the increased jet density at the higher drive energies may account for the increased mass dispersion. This work provides an important step in the understanding of tin ejecta microjet collisions and paves the way for future studies on the physics dominating high-speed particle-laden flow interactions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Understanding Cirrus Ice Crystal Number Variability for Different Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Spectra

Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, Ni, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of Ni to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand Ni variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, and simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of Ni sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. Ni sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.

Cirrus↗

On Assessing ERA5 and MERRA2 Representations of Cold-Air Outbreaks Across the Gulf Stream

The warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly impact the evolution of winter clouds behind atmospheric cold fronts. Such cloud evolution remains challenging to model. The Gulf Stream is too wide within the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses, affecting the turbulent surface fluxes. Known problems within the ERA5 boundary layer (too-dry and too-cool with too strong westerlies), ascertained primarily from ACTIVATE 2020 campaign aircraft dropsondes and secondarily from older buoy measurements, reinforce surface flux biases. In contrast, MERRA2 winter surface winds and air-sea temperature/humidity differences are slightly too weak, producing surface fluxes that are too low. Reanalyses boundary layer heights in the strongly-forced winter cold-air-outbreak regime are realistic, whereas late-summer quiescent stable boundary layers are too shallow. Nevertheless, the reanalysis biases are small, and reanalyses adequately support their use for initializing higher-resolution cloud process modeling studies of cold-air outbreaks.

Gulf stream↗

On Assessing ERA5 and MERRA2 Representations of Cold-Air Outbreaks Across the Gulf Stream

The warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly impact the evolution of winter clouds behind atmospheric cold fronts. Such cloud evolution remains challenging to model. Here, the Gulf Stream is too wide within the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses, affecting the turbulent surface fluxes. Known problems within the ERA5 boundary layer (too-dry and too-cool with too strong westerlies), ascertained primarily from ACTIVATE 2020 campaign aircraft dropsondes and secondarily from older buoy measurements, reinforce surface flux biases. In contrast, MERRA2 winter surface winds and air-sea temperature/humidity differences are slightly too weak, producing surface fluxes that are too low. Reanalyses boundary layer heights in the strongly-forced winter cold-air-outbreak regime are realistic, whereas late-summer quiescent stable boundary layers are too shallow. Nevertheless, the reanalysis biases are small, and reanalyses adequately support their use for initializing higher-resolution cloud process modeling studies of cold-air outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Non‐Linear Dimensionality Reduction With a Variational Encoder Decoder to Understand Convective Processes in Climate Models

Abstract Deep learning can accurately represent sub‐grid‐scale convective processes in climate models, learning from high resolution simulations. However, deep learning methods usually lack interpretability due to large internal dimensionality, resulting in reduced trustworthiness in these methods. Here, we use Variational Encoder Decoder structures (VED), a non‐linear dimensionality reduction technique, to learn and understand convective processes in an aquaplanet superparameterized climate model simulation, where deep convective processes are simulated explicitly. We show that similar to previous deep learning studies based on feed‐forward neural nets, the VED is capable of learning and accurately reproducing convective processes. In contrast to past work, we show this can be achieved by compressing the original information into only five latent nodes. As a result, the VED can be used to understand convective processes and delineate modes of convection through the exploration of its latent dimensions. A close investigation of the latent space enables the identification of different convective regimes: (a) stable conditions are clearly distinguished from deep convection with low outgoing longwave radiation and strong precipitation; (b) high optically thin cirrus‐like clouds are separated from low optically thick cumulus clouds; and (c) shallow convective processes are associated with large‐scale moisture content and surface diabatic heating. Our results demonstrate that VEDs can accurately represent convective processes in climate models, while enabling interpretability and better understanding of sub‐grid‐scale physical processes, paving the way to increasingly interpretable machine learning parameterizations with promising generative properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Massive superclusters as a probe of the nature and amplitude of primordial density fluctuations

It is pointed out that correlation studies of galaxy positions have been widely used in the search for information about the large-scale matter distribution. The study of rare condensations on large scales provides an approach to extend the existing knowledge of large-scale structure into the weakly clustered regime. Shane (1975) provides a description of several apparent massive condensations within the Shane-Wirtanen catalog, taking into account the Serpens-Virgo cloud and the Corona cloud. In the present study, a description is given of a model for estimating the frequency of condensations which evolve from initially Gaussian fluctuations. This model is applied to the Corona cloud to estimate its 'rareness' and thereby estimate the rms density contrast on this mass scale. An attempt is made to find a conflict between the density fluctuations derived from the Corona cloud and independent constraints. A comparison is conducted of the estimate and the density fluctuations predicted to arise in a universe dominated by cold dark matter.

Kaiser, N.↗

An analytic model of the neutral cloud evolution in the earth's atmosphere

An analytic model for the expansion of a chemically reacting gas in the upper atmosphere is discussed. The spatial-temporal distribution of released particles in the initial regime is described on the basis of self-similar solutions of Euler's equations. In the case of transition to the diffusion regime an approximate solution of the kinetic equation with the collision integral in the form of BGK is performed. Gravitation and the atmospheric inhomogeneity are taken into account, The diffusion regime is described by an analytic solution of the diffusion equation in an exponential atmosphere taking account of possible losses of the gas due to chemical reactions. Some peculiarities of the expansion of various gases as well as the possibility of applying the model for describing ionospheric 'holes' are discussed.

Bruskin, L. G.↗

Analysis of ISO Data

A block grant supported several astronomers who executed observing programs using the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO). The ISO project in which Harriet Dinerstein participated was a study of sulfur and neon abundances in extragalactic H II regions using the ISO Short Wavelength Spectrometer (SWS). Evans and Jaffe, along with collaborators Ewine van Dishoeck and Wing-Fai Thi, and then graduate student Wenbin Li, carried out an in-depth study of the peripheral region of the molecular cloud L1204/S140, where the far ultraviolet radiation and the density are relatively low. Their observations test theories of photon-dominated regions (PDRs) in a regime that has been little explored. One ISO program was involved with PHT-32 observations of about a dozen young stars to search for extended emission that could be modeled with our dust-modeling-code at UT. The document reports on preliminary analysis of PHT 32 scanning of 10 pre-main-sequence stars at 50 and 100 microns. A small sample of R Coronae Borealis stars was observed with the SWS.

David L. Lambert↗

Time scales for molecule formation by ion-molecule reactions

Analytical solutions are obtained for nonlinear differential equations governing the time-dependence of molecular abundances in interstellar clouds. Three gas-phase reaction schemes are considered separately for the regions where each dominates. The particular case of CO, and closely related members of the Oh and CH families of molecules, is studied for given values of temperature, density, and the radiation field. Nonlinear effects and couplings with particular ions are found to be important. The time scales for CO formation range from 100,000 to a few million years, depending on the chemistry and regime. The time required for essentially complete conversion of C(+) to CO in the region where the H3(+) chemistry dominates is several million years. Because this time is longer than or comparable to dynamical time scales for dense interstellar clouds, steady-state abundances may not be observed in such clouds.

Langer, W. D.↗