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At least 379 records · Page 21
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Composition and persistence of soil organic matter along eroding and depositional transects in buried vs. modern soil layers: A case of the Brady paleosol at Wauneta, Nebraska

Paleosols form when soils are buried through deposition by aeolian, colluvial, alluvial or other processes. Burial of former topsoil isolates soil organic matter (SOM) from surface conditions, allowing carbon to accumulate and potentially remain stable for millennia. In this study, SOM composition, distribution, and persistence were analyzed in the Brady Soil of Nebraska, USA to compare SOM spatial variability in modern and buried soils, as well as the impact of erosional exposure on SOM stability. The Brady Soil, formed as a surface soil during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and now a paleosol buried up to 6 m deep (or more) by loess deposition during the Holocene, was sampled along burial (up to 5.8 m depth) and erosional (up to 1.8 m depth) transects to compare SOM dynamics in different geomorphic settings. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) and Fourier Transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) were used to analyze SOM composition, while δ 13 C isotope analyses identified SOM sources and radiocarbon values were used to estimate turnover rates. Results confirmed a vegetation shift from C3 to C4 plants after Brady Soil formation, reflecting warming climatic conditions. Increasing SOM age and decreasing δ 13 C and δ 15 N values with depth indicated slowing of decomposition rate in buried soils. Higher pH in the Brady Soil suggested greater base cation content, supporting SOM stabilization through organo-mineral associations and aggregate formation. However, exposure of the Brady Soil due to surface erosion caused faster SOM turnover. This result suggested susceptibility of buried SOM to losses via decomposition upon erosional exposure, possibly accelerated by priming in response to modern SOM inputs. These findings highlight the potential loss of carbon stocks in buried soils under future climate change, as shifts in soil physicochemical properties may destabilize long-preserved SOM.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multiphase flow model of water droplets dielectrophoretic-induced air dehumidification phenomena

Air humidity in indoor spaces plays a critical role in human comfort and health. Dehumidification systems are used for building humidity controls, but they can take significant energy consumption, especially in geographic locations with high outdoor humidity and warm climates. Consequently, there is a growing demand for innovative dehumidification processes that consume minimal energy. Dielectrophoretic air dehumidification represents one such promising approach. However, it has not garnered significant attention due to the absence of engineering models and simulation tools capable of evaluating its performance and limitations at large-scale airflows. A new numerical multiphase CFD model, which is also experimentally validated, is developed in a customized Reacting Foam solver based on OpenFOAM® version 9. The newly developed model seeks to decrease substantial energy consumption and lower costs by leveraging the dielectrophoretic phenomenon to regulate moisture levels in the air. The solver integrates a hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian framework to track the droplet's trajectory and growth rate while solving the continuum equations for the moist air. An electrospray produces electrically charged droplets, which grow during their in-flight trajectories as water vapor condenses onto their surfaces. The role of electrostatic forces in promoting vapor condensation within a high-gradient electrical field is investigated, and the dielectrophoretic vapor nucleation process on charged water droplets is discussed. The CFD model was validated against results from the literature and from proof-of-concept experiments conducted by the authors, which showed a 2 % air dehumidification with a single electrospray and airflow rate of 5 cubic feet per minute. The simulation results indicated that augmenting the number of electrically charged spray droplets increased the dehumidification of the air to 25 %. The initial mean droplet diameter, the orientation of the injector and relative humidity significantly influence the assessment of dehumidification. As a result, scaling up this approach to larger airflow volumes is identified as a potential future research direction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Insights into storm direction effect on flood response

In this study, we investigate the directional influence of storm movement on catchment flood peak response using the synthetic circular basin. Due to the complexity in defining storm movements that require meteorological modeling, we adopt a novel approach of combining the basin rotation method (BRM) with a circular basin construct. A systematic basin rotation approach provides a proxy for the storm direction relative to the river network topology to study its hydrologic response. Using Stage-IV rainfall with 4-km by 1-hour resolution for 16 years period from 2003 to 2018 in Iowa, U.S., we systematically analyze consequent flood peak response due to storm directions (basin rotations) using a distributed hydrologic model called the Hillslope-Link Model (HLM). HLM has demonstrated the ability to reproduce observed streamflow for real river basins studied in Iowa. The hydrologic simulation results show that the BRM can quantify the relationship between the rainstorm direction and catchment hydrologic response. Also, the maximum flood peak response is strongly dependent on the interaction of the peak of the rainstorm with the peak of the width function. The results indicate significant differences in runoff volume and runoff peak and their interannual variability due to rainstorm direction. The study has important implications for flood frequency predictions and developing flood resilience and watershed management strategies, particularly due to changing storm tracks under a warming climate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A comprehensive analysis of the crop effect on the urban-rural differences in land surface phenology

The response of land surface phenology (LSP) to the urban heat island effect (UHI) is a useful biological indicator for understanding how vegetated ecosystems will be affected by future climate warming. However, vegetation cover in rural areas is often dominated by cultivated land, whose phenological timing is considerably influenced by agricultural managements (e.g., timing of sowing and harvesting), leading to biased conclusions derived from the urban-rural LSP differences. To demonstrate this problem, we investigated the crop influence on the phenological response to a warmer environment resulting from the UHI effect. We partitioned cities in the United States into cultivated and non-cultivated categories according to the proportion of crops in rural areas. We then built continuous buffer zones starting from the urban boundary to explore the urban-rural LSP differences considering the UHI effect on them. In this work, the results suggest crop inclusion is likely to lead to >14 days of urban-rural differences at both the start of the season (SOS) and the end of the season (EOS) between cultivated and non-cultivated cities. The temperature sensitivity (ST) of SOS is overestimated by approximately 2.7 days/°C, whereas the EOS is underestimated by 3.6 days/°C. Removing crop-dominated pixels (i.e., above 50 %) can minimize the influence of crop planting/harvesting on LSP and derive reliable results. We, therefore, suggest explicit consideration of crop impacts in future studies of phenological differences between urban and rural areas and the UHI effect on LSP in urban domains, as presented by this comprehensive study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environmental harshness mediates the relationship between aboveground and belowground communities in Antarctica

Linkages between aboveground and belowground communities are a key but globally under-researched component of responses to environmental change. Given the logistical complications to studying these relationships, much of our knowledge derives from laboratory experiments and localized field studies which have so far yielded inconsistent results. Because environmental factors may alter relationships between above- and belowground communities, there is a need for broad-scale field studies testing these interactions. The Antarctic Peninsula provides an ideal test setting, given the relatively simple communities both above- and belowground. The Peninsula is also experiencing rapid environmental changes, including alterations in species diversity and distribution both above- and belowground. Thus, an improved understanding of the broad-scale consequences of altered environments and vegetation communities for the soil microbiome is of high priority. To determine the nature and strength of the relationship between in situ plant and soil communities across a broad spatial scale and range of environmental conditions, we sampled soil communities at 9 locations (spanning 60–72°S along the Scotia Arc and Antarctic Peninsula) beneath the major aboveground habitats (moss, grass, lichen, algae and bare soil). We measured a comprehensive suite of soil physicochemical properties, microbial (bacterial and fungal) diversity and composition, and invertebrate abundance and community composition to determine the relationships between plant and soil communities. Furthermore, our results suggest that, with increased environmental severity, plant cover types become more important for influencing the physicochemical soil environment, and therefore the soil microbial communities. Although we found site-specific relationships, broad-scale patterns reveal significant differences among bare soils and vegetated soils, particularly soils beneath grass and moss. This suggests that expansion of vegetation communities under current climate warming projections will be accompanied by shifts in the soil microbiome, with important implications for the ecosystem functioning with which they are associated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of Forest Fire Ash on Aquatic Mercury Cycling

Mercury (Hg) is a ubiquitous contaminant in the environment and its methylated form, methylmercury (MeHg), poses a worldwide health concern for humans and wildlife, primarily through fish consumption. Global production of forest fire ash, derived from wildfires and prescribed burns, is rapidly increasing due to a warming climate, but their interactions with aqueous and sedimentary Hg are poorly understood. In this study, we compared the differences of wildfire ash with activated carbon and biochar on the sorption of aqueous inorganic Hg and sedimentary Hg methylation. Sorption of aqueous inorganic Hg was greatest for wildfire ash materials (up to 0.21 μg g ₋1 or 2.2 μg g ₋1 C) among all of the solid sorbents evaluated. A similar Hg adsorption mechanism for activated carbon, biochar made of walnut, and wildfire ash was found that involves the formation of complexes between Hg and oxygen-containing functional groups, especially the ₋COO group. Notably, increasing dissolved organic matter from 2.4 to 70 mg C L ₋1 remarkably reduced Hg sorption (up to 40% reduction) and increased the time required to reach Hg–sorbent pseudo-equilibrium. Surprisingly, biochar and wildfire ash, but not activated carbon, stimulated MeHg production during anoxic sediment incubation, possibly due to the release of labile organic matter. Overall, our study indicates that while wildfire ash can sequester aqueous Hg, the leaching of its labile organic matter may promote production of toxic MeHg in anoxic sediments, which has an important implication for potential MeHg contamination in downstream aquatic ecosystems after wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes Along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies From 1980–2017

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and floodevents along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present-day characteristics of AR-relatedprecipitation extremes, a selection of nine most intense historical AR events during 1980–2017 is simulatedusing a dynamical downscaling modeling framework based on the Weather Research and ForecastingModel. We find that the chosen framework and Weather Research and Forecasting Model configurationreproduces both large-scale atmospheric features—including parent synoptic-scale cyclones—as well asthe filamentary corridors of integrated vapor transport associated with the ARs themselves. The accuracyof simulated extreme precipitation maxima, relative to in situ and interpolated gridded observations,improves notably with increasing model resolution, with improvements as large as 40–60% for fine scale(3 km) relative to coarse-scale (27 km) simulations. A separate set of simulations using smoothedtopography suggests that much of these gains stem from the improved representation of complex terrain.Additionally, using the 12 December 1995 storm in Northern California as an example, we demonstratethat only the highest-resolution simulations resolve important fine-scale features—such as localizedorographically forced vertical motion and powerful near hurricane-force boundary layer winds. Given thedemonstrated ability of a targeted dynamical downscaling framework to capture both local extremeprecipitation and key fine-scale characteristics of the most intense ARs in the historical record, we arguethat such a configuration may be highly conducive to understanding AR-related extremes and associatedchanges in a warming climate

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carbon Fluxes and Microbial Activities From Boreal Peatlands Experiencing Permafrost Thaw

Permafrost thaw is occurring in Alaska which may result in a positive feedback to climate warming, due to the release of greenhouse gases such as CO 2 and CH 4 from soils. Here we examined greenhouse gas production along a gradient of “time since thaw,” hypothesizing that fluxes and microbial activities would be highest soon after thaw, and then decline. We observed highest rates of microbial activities, particularly methanogenesis, soon after thaw, coinciding with less decomposed organic matter and higher concentrations of dissolved carbon and nitrogen in soil, possibly of permafrost origin. However, field fluxes were higher in the young thaw site, compared to the older sites, in winter and not summer, a phenomenon that is currently not well understood.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Remote Sensing Technique to Upscale Methane Emission Flux in a Subtropical Peatland

Abstract Quantification of methane (CH 4 ) gas emission from peat is critical to understand CH 4 budget from natural wetlands under a climate warming scenario. Previous studies have focused on prediction and mapping of CH 4 emission flux using process‐based models, while application of statistical‐empirical models for upscaling spatially sparse in situ measurements is scarce. In this study, we developed an empirical remote sensing upscaling approach to estimate CH 4 emission flux in the Everglades using limited in situ point‐based CH 4 emission flux measurements and Landsat data during 2013–2018. We spatially and temporally linked in situ data with Landsat surface reflectance based on temporally composite data sets and developed an object‐based machine learning framework to model and map CH 4 emission flux. An ensemble analysis of two machine learning models, k ‐Nearest Neighbor ( k ‐NN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), shows that the upscaling approach is promising for predicting CH 4 emission flux with a R 2 of 0.65 and 0.87 based on a fivefold cross‐validation for a dry season and wet season estimation, respectively. We generated emission flux map products that successfully revealed the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of CH 4 emission within the dominant freshwater marsh ecosystem in the Everglades. We conclude that Landsat is promising for upscaling and monitoring CH 4 emission flux and reducing the uncertainty in emission estimates from wetlands.

Zhang, Caiyun↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-Term Changes in Concentration and Yield of Riverine Dissolved Silicon From the Poles to the Tropics

Riverine exports of silicon (Si) influence global carbon cycling through the growth of marine diatoms, which account for ~25% of global primary production. Climate change will likely alter river Si exports in biome-specific ways due to interacting shifts in chemical weathering rates, hydrologic connectivity, and metabolic processes in aquatic and terrestrial systems. Nonetheless, factors driving long-term changes in Si exports remain unexplored at local, regional, and global scales. We evaluated how concentrations and yields of dissolved Si (DSi) changed over the last several decades of rapid climate warming using long-term data sets from 60 rivers and streams spanning the globe (e.g., Antarctic, tropical, temperate, boreal, alpine, Arctic systems). We show that widespread changes in river DSi concentration and yield have occurred, with the most substantial shifts occurring in alpine and polar regions. The magnitude and direction of trends varied within and among biomes, were most strongly associated with differences in land cover, and were often independent of changes in river discharge. These findings indicate that there are likely diverse mechanisms driving change in river Si biogeochemistry that span the land-water interface, which may include glacial melt, changes in terrestrial vegetation, and river productivity. Finally, trends were often stronger in months outside of the growing season, particularly in temperate and boreal systems, demonstrating a potentially important role of shifting seasonality for the flux of Si from rivers. Our results have implications for the timing and magnitude of silica processing in rivers and its delivery to global oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Large‐Storm Dominance in High‐Resolution GCMs and Observations Across the Western Contiguous United States

Abstract Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency across much of the land‐surface as the global climate warms, but such projections have typically relied on coarse‐resolution (100–250 km) general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble of HighResMIP GCMs presents an opportunity to evaluate how a more finely resolved atmosphere and land‐surface might enhance the fidelity of the simulated contribution of large‐magnitude storms to total precipitation, particularly across topographically complex terrain. Here, the simulation of large‐storm dominance, that is, the number of wettest days to reach half of the total annual precipitation, is quantified across the western United States (WUS) using four GCMs within the HighResMIP ensemble and their coarse resolution counterparts. Historical GCM simulations (1950–2014) are evaluated against a baseline generated from station‐observed daily precipitation (4,803 GHCN‐D stations) and from three gridded, observationally based precipitation data sets that are coarsened to match the resolution of the GCMs. All coarse‐resolution simulations produce less large‐storm dominance than in observations across the WUS. For two of the four GCMs, bias in the median large‐storm dominance is reduced in the HighResMIP simulation, decreasing by as much as 62% in the intermountain west region. However, the other GCMs show little change or even an increase (+28%) in bias of median large‐storm dominance across multiple sub‐regions. The spread in differences with resolution amongst GCMs suggests that, in addition to resolution, model structure and parameterization of precipitation generating processes also contribute to bias in simulated large‐storm dominance.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection of Future Fire Emissions Over the Contiguous US Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and CMIP6 Models

Abstract Increasing temperature and water cycle changes due to warming climate may increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Fire emission projections are useful for informing strategies for adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, we construct a neural network (NN) model explained by the Shapley Additive explanation to predict fire PM 2.5 emissions change and understand their drivers over the contiguous US (CONUS) in the mid‐21st century under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Using future meteorology and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, future population density, and present‐day land use and land cover (LULC) as input to the NN model, the total fire PM 2.5 emissions over CONUS are projected to increase by 4%–75% (model spread). Among different regions, fire emissions in the western US are projected to increase more significantly in June‐July‐August than in other seasons and regions, with the median ratios of future to present‐day fire emissions ranging from 1.67 to 2.86. The increases in fire emissions are mainly driven by increasing normalized temperature (23%–29%) and decreasing soil moisture (2%–10%) in the future. When future LULC change is considered, the projected fire emissions further increase by 58%–83% over the western US compared to projections without LULC change because of future increases in vegetation fraction. The results highlight the important role of warmer temperature, decreasing soil moisture, and LULC change in increasing fire emissions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Permafrost Formation in a Meandering River Floodplain

Abstract Permafrost influences 25% of land in the Northern Hemisphere, where it stabilizes the ground beneath communities and infrastructure and sequesters carbon. However, the coevolution of permafrost, river dynamics, and vegetation in Arctic environments remains poorly understood. As rivers meander, they erode the floodplain at cutbanks and build new land through bar deposition, creating sequences of landforms with distinct formation ages. Here we mapped these sequences along the Koyukuk River floodplain, Alaska, analyzing permafrost occurrence, and landform and vegetation types. We used radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to develop a floodplain age map. Deposit ages ranged from modern to 10 ka, with more younger deposits near the modern channel. Permafrost rapidly reached 50% areal extent in all deposits older than 200 years then gradually increased up to ∼85% extent for deposits greater than 4 Kyr old. Permafrost extent correlated with increases in black spruce and wetland abundance, as well as increases in permafrost extent within wetland, and shrub and scrub vegetation classes. We developed an inverse model to constrain permafrost formation rate as a function of air temperature. Permafrost extent initially increased by ∼25% per century, in pace with vegetation succession, before decelerating to <10% per millennia as insulating overbank mud and moss slowly accumulated. Modern permafrost extent on the Koyukuk floodplain therefore reflects a dynamic balance between widespread, time‐varying permafrost formation and rapid, localized degradation due to cutbank erosion that might trigger a rapid loss of permafrost with climatic warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Scaling of MCS, Non‐MCS, and Total Extreme Precipitation With Temperature Over the Central United States

Abstract While extreme precipitation is expected to increase in a warming climate, its scaling with temperature at weather timescales often produces puzzling results. Here, we focus on the summer months over the central U.S. to investigate the scaling of extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) with local temperature and determine the contribution of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) to the EPI scaling. Using an observational data set that differentiates precipitation associated with MCS and non‐MCS storms, we find that MCS storms contribute to 70% of EPI samples at temperatures lower than 298 K where EPI increases with temperature. However, at temperatures of 298–305 K, MCSs' contribution to EPI decreases as the predominant storm type shifts from MCS to non‐MCS storms, causing EPI to decrease with temperature due to the weaker rainfall intensity associated with non‐MCS storms compared with MCS storms. Our findings underscore the important role of different storm types in affecting the EPI scaling relationships.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Frequency-Category Characteristics Shape U.S. West Coast Runoff

Abstractrunoff response to atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the U.S. West Coast. We focused on runoff time series variations impacted by AR characteristics (e.g., category and frequency) and land preconditions during Northern Hemisphere cool seasons in the period of 1940–2023. Results show that high-category ARs significantly increase local runoff with higher hourly precipitation rates leading to a greater incremental rate and peak runoff. Extreme runoff increases greatly with the AR category with an increase rate up to 12.5 times stronger than non-extreme runoff. Besides the AR category, land preconditions such as soil moisture and snowpack also play crucial roles in modulating runoff response. We found that runoff induced by weak-category ARs is more sensitive to land preconditions than high-category ARs, with high peak runoff occurring when soil is nearly saturated. Additionally, more than 50% of high-peak-runoff events in snow-covered grid cells are associated with rain-on-snow events particularly for the events associated with weaker ARs. Regression analysis reveals that AR precipitation and land preconditions jointly influence runoff, emphasizing the importance of including soil moisture and snowpack levels in AR impact assessments. The study also highlights the intensified runoff response to back-to-back ARs with short intervals, which may become more frequent with climate warming, posing increased flood risks via facilitating wet soil conditions. Our findings have significant implications for AR risk predictions and the development of prediction models for AR-induced runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events

Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.

Atmospheric blocking↗
DOE OSTI2026

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-year incubation experiments boost confidence in model projections of long-term soil carbon dynamics

Abstract Global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks may decline with a warmer climate. However, model projections of changes in SOC due to climate warming depend on microbially-driven processes that are usually parameterized based on laboratory incubations. To assess how lab-scale incubation datasets inform model projections over decades, we optimized five microbially-relevant parameters in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model using 16 short-term glucose (6-day), 16 short-term cellulose (30-day) and 16 long-term cellulose (729-day) incubation datasets with soils from forests and grasslands across contrasting soil types. Our analysis identified consistently higher parameter estimates given the short-term versus long-term datasets. Implementing the short-term and long-term parameters, respectively, resulted in SOC loss (–8.2 ± 5.1% or –3.9 ± 2.8%), and minor SOC gain (1.8 ± 1.0%) in response to 5 °C warming, while only the latter is consistent with a meta-analysis of 149 field warming observations (1.6 ± 4.0%). Comparing multiple subsets of cellulose incubations (i.e., 6, 30, 90, 180, 360, 480 and 729-day) revealed comparable projections to the observed long-term SOC changes under warming only on 480- and 729-day. Integrating multi-year datasets of soil incubations (e.g., > 1.5 years) with microbial models can thus achieve more reasonable parameterization of key microbial processes and subsequently boost the accuracy and confidence of long-term SOC projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗