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At least 379 records · Page 21

Differentiation strategies of soil rare and abundant microbial taxa in response to changing climatic regimes

Despite the important roles of soil microbes, especially the most diverse rare taxa in maintaining community diversity and multifunctionality, how different climate regimes alter the stability and functions of the rare microbial biosphere remains unknown. We reciprocally transplanted field soils across a latitudinal gradient to simulate climate change and sampled the soils annually after harvesting the maize over the following 6 years (from 2005 to 2011). By sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons, we found that changing climate regimes significantly altered the composition and dynamics of soil microbial communities. A continuous succession of the rare and abundant communities was observed. Rare microbial communities were more stable under changing climatic regimes, with lower variations in temporal dynamics, and higher stability and constancy of diversity. More nitrogen cycling genes were detected in the rare members than in the abundant members, including amoA, napA, nifH, nirK, nirS, norB and nrfA. Random forest analysis and receiver operating characteristics analysis showed that rare taxa may act as potential contributors to maize yield under changing climatics. The study indicates that the taxonomically and functionally diverse rare biosphere has the potential to increase functional redundancy and enhance the ability of soil communities to counteract environmental disturbances. With ongoing global climate change, exploring the succession process and functional changes of rare taxa may be important in elucidating the ecosystem stability and multifunctionality that are mediated by microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Vertical dependence of horizontal variation of cloud microphysics: observations from the ACE-ENA field campaign and implications for warm-rain simulation in climate models

Abstract. In the current global climate models (GCMs), the nonlinearity effect of subgrid cloud variations on the parameterization of warm-rain process, e.g., the autoconversion rate, is often treated by multiplying the resolved-scale warm-rain process rates by a so-called enhancement factor (EF). In this study, we investigate the subgrid-scale horizontal variations and covariation of cloud water content (qc) and cloud droplet number concentration (Nc) in marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds based on the in situ measurements from a recent field campaign and study the implications for the autoconversion rate EF in GCMs. Based on a few carefully selected cases from the field campaign, we found that in contrast to the enhancing effect of qc and Nc variations that tends to make EF > 1, the strong positive correlation between qc and Nc results in a suppressing effect that tends to make EF < 1. This effect is especially strong at cloud top, where the qc and Nc correlation can be as high as 0.95. We also found that the physically complete EF that accounts for the covariation of qc and Nc is significantly smaller than its counterpart that accounts only for the subgrid variation of qc, especially at cloud top. Although this study is based on limited cases, it suggests that the subgrid variations of Nc and its correlation with qc both need to be considered for an accurate simulation of the autoconversion process in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Learning Parameterization of Vertical Wind Velocity Variability via Constrained Adversarial Training

Atmospheric models with typical resolution in the tenths of kilometers cannot resolve the dynamics of air parcel ascent, which varies on scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters. Small-scale wind fluctuations are thus characterized by a subgrid distribution of vertical wind velocity W with standard deviation σ W . The parameterization of σ W is fundamental to the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, yet it is poorly constrained. Using a novel deep learning technique, this work develops a new parameterization for σ W merging data from global storm-resolving model simulations, high-frequency retrievals of W , and climate reanalysis products. The parameterization reproduces the observed statistics of σ W and leverages learned physical relations from the model simulations to guide extrapolation beyond the observed domain. Incorporating observational data during the training phase was found to be critical for its performance. The parameterization can be applied online within large-scale atmospheric models, or offline using output from weather forecasting and reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of African Easterly Waves in a Global Climate Model

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) exert significant influence on local and downstream high-impact weather including tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Atlantic. Accurate representation of AEWs in climate and weather prediction models therefore is necessary for skillful predictions. In this study, we examine simulated AEWs, including their evolution, vertical structure, and linkage to tropical cyclone genesis, in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric global climate model. Identified by the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of time-filtered precipitation, the observed westward propagating AEWs along the southern track over the Atlantic are largely captured in GEOS-5, but with a slower phase speed and significantly weaker amplitude downstream off the West Africa coast. The weak downstream development of AEWs in GEOS-5 is accompanied by much reduced TC genesis over the main development region. Further analyses suggest that the slow westward propagation and weaker AEW amplitude downstream can be ascribed to a weak African easterly jet, while overestimated negative (positive) meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients appear to the north (south) of 10°N in GEOS-5. The greatly overestimated positive meridional PV gradient to the south of 10°N is expected to generate strong horizontal stretching in the AEW wave pattern in the model, which hinders organization of convection and its feedback to sustain the AEW development. Persistent and vigorous AEW precipitation in the Guinea Highlands of the West Africa coast could also be responsible for reduced westward propagation of AEWs in the model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather

Abstract Regional climate models can be used to examine how past weather events might unfold under different climate conditions by simulating analogue versions of those events with modified thermodynamic conditions (i.e., warming signals). Here, we apply this approach by dynamically downscaling a 40-year sequence of past weather from 1980–2019 driven by atmospheric re-analysis, and then repeating this 40-year sequence a total of 8 times using a range of time-evolving thermodynamic warming signals that follow 4 80-year future warming trajectories from 2020–2099. Warming signals follow two emission scenarios (SSP585 and SSP245) and are derived from two groups of global climate models based on whether they exhibit relatively high or low climate sensitivity. The resulting dataset, which contains 25 hourly and over 200 3-hourly variables at 12 km spatial resolution, can be used to examine a plausible range of future climate conditions in direct reference to previously observed weather and enables a systematic exploration of the ways in which thermodynamic change influences the characteristics of historical extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stand Age and Climate Change Effects on Carbon Increments and Stock Dynamics

Carbon assimilation and wood production are influenced by environmental conditions and endogenous factors, such as species auto-ecology, age, and hierarchical position within the forest structure. Disentangling the intricate relationships between those factors is more pressing than ever due to climate change’s pressure. We employed the 3D-CMCC-FEM model to simulate undisturbed forests of different ages under four climate change (plus one no climate change) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios from five Earth system models. In this context, carbon stocks and increment were simulated via total carbon woody stocks and mean annual increment, which depends mainly on climate trends. We find greater differences among different age cohorts under the same scenario than among different climate scenarios under the same age class. Increasing temperature and changes in precipitation patterns led to a decline in above-ground biomass in spruce stands, especially in the older age classes. On the contrary, the results show that beech forests will maintain and even increase C-storage rates under most RCP scenarios. Scots pine forests show an intermediate behavior with a stable stock capacity over time and in different scenarios but with decreasing mean volume annual increment. These results confirm current observations worldwide that indicate a stronger climate-related decline in conifers forests than in broadleaves.

Forestry↗

Object-oriented analysis as a foundation for building climate storylines of compounding short-term drought and crop heat stress

Introduction: Crops are vulnerable to precipitation and heat extremes during late spring through summer. Methods: We analyzed for a north-central U.S. region short-term drought and agricultural heat stress during April-May-June-July. We used the 4-km Parameter Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) for observations, aggregated to a 25-km grid, and two 25-km Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulns used either GFDL- or MPI-GCM boundary conditions. We chose 1981-2000 as our contemporary time period, and 2041- 2060 as our scenario time period, which used the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenario. We used object-oriented analysis to identify events of interest in observations and simulations by identifying objects in a space-time domain that meet specified criteria, such as exceeding a heat-stress temperature threshold. The event diagnosis allowed analysis of compound events, occurring when temperature and drought objects overlap. Results: Identified objects yielded events that can undermine agricultural productivity and which are thus relevant to decision makers, making them building blocks for possible climate storylines. The observations and simulations showed similar spatial distributions of event frequencies across the analysis region. However, the simulations attained this distribution by having fewer events that tend to cover larger areas compared to observed events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations was coarser than their 25-km grids. Short-term drought frequency increased and heat-stress frequency decreased in transitioning to the scenario climate. When compounding occurred heat-stress events generally preceded the short-term drought events. The overlapping, compound events tended to be more extreme compared to non-overlapping events of either type. Discussion: The information yielded projected changes in these agriculturally motivated events. One prominent conditional behavior emerging from the work was that a heat-stress event should be a warning to watch for potential drought, as both could compound each other to more intense levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated parameter and process learning for hydrologic and biogeochemical modules in Earth System Models

Focus area: Primary focal area #2; secondary focal area #3: Learning about parameters and processes of land surface hydrologic and biogeochemical models in Earth System models by integrating machine learning, physics, and big data. Science challenges: How do we maximally leverage big-data observations to improve hydrobiogeochemical process description and parameterization so that such modules more realistically capture hydrologic and vegetation responses and feedbacks under the future climate? For example, how can we leverage physics, limited observations of vegetation and streamflow to better estimate evapotranspiration, and, relatedly, net primary productivity, especially for drought areas? Vegetation plays a critical role in regional and global water cycles; however, existing vegetation models have failed to predict vegetation response to droughts (McDowell & Xu, 2017) , arctic greening (Keenan & Riley, 2018) , and critical transitions between forest and savanna (Hirota et al., 2011) . These studies suggest that when we build process-based models (PBM) parameterized from regional and global plant traits, we tend to poorly describe plant adaptation and local-scale competition processes. The models and their associated parameters assigned for different regions in the world are not capturing essential heterogeneity in vegetation responses at finer spatial scales. Many parameters of the land surface models control hydrology and vegetation dynamics at the same time. The heterogeneity in vegetation response is a function of (i) plant type, (ii) plant size, (iii) competition and succession, (iv) environmental controls, and (v) local variations due to the unique ecological community that are very difficult to describe (e.g., the size of gaps resulting from fire that facilitated the coexistence of pioneering species). In the demographic models, only factors (i) and (iv) were captured, and plant types were generally described only by leaf phenology and climate zones. With current demographic models, we generally consider more traits to define plant types (i) and calibrate these traits to consider factors (ii), (iii) and (iv); however, it is substantially challenging to scale to regional and global simulations due to trait variations across space (Ali et al., 2016). Moreover, it has been noted that hillslope processes, including ridge-to-valley flow and sunny vs. shady slopes are primary organizers of water, energy, and vegetation (Clark et al., 2015; Fan et al., 2019) . Although gradual improvements in the hydrologic model component in earth system models may reduce this error (at a remarkably slow pace), the long-term, gradual impact of hydrology on plant traits are not well captured. Recent work showed that the hydrologic controls exerted by groundwater and lateral flow are primary regulators of rooting depth (Fan et al., 2017) . Such hydrologic controls have seldom been reflected in vegetation model parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CO 2 fertilization of terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from site to global scales

Significance The magnitude of the CO 2 fertilization effect on terrestrial photosynthesis is uncertain because it is not directly observed and is subject to confounding effects of climatic variability. We apply three well-established eco-evolutionary optimality theories of gas exchange and photosynthesis, constraining the main processes of CO 2 fertilization using measurable variables. Using this framework, we provide robust observationally inferred evidence that a strong CO 2 fertilization effect is detectable in globally distributed eddy covariance networks. Applying our method to upscale photosynthesis globally, we find that the magnitude of the CO 2 fertilization effect is comparable to its in situ counterpart but highlight the potential for substantial underestimation of this effect in tropical forests for many reflectance-based satellite photosynthesis products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Can we achieve atmospheric chemical environments in the laboratory? An integrated model-measurement approach to chamber SOA studies

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), atmospheric particulate matter formed from low-volatility products of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation, affects both air quality and climate. Current 3D models, however, cannot reproduce the observed variability in atmospheric organic aerosol. Because many SOA model descriptions are derived from environmental chamber experiments, our ability to represent atmospheric conditions in chambers directly affects our ability to assess the air quality and climate impacts of SOA. Here, we develop an approach that leverages global modeling and detailed mechanisms to design chamber experiments that mimic the atmospheric chemistry of organic peroxy radicals (RO 2 ), a key intermediate in VOC oxidation. Drawing on decades of laboratory experiments, we develop a framework for quantitatively describing RO 2 chemistry and show that no previous experimental approaches to studying SOA formation have accessed the relevant atmospheric RO 2 fate distribution. We show proof-of-concept experiments that demonstrate how SOA experiments can access a range of atmospheric chemical environments and propose several directions for future studies.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

A Unified Theory for the Global Thunderstorm Distribution and Land–Sea Contrast

This article evaluates Entraining CAPE (ECAPE) as a thunderstorm proxy in climate studies using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observations. ECAPE modifies traditional CAPE to account for the dependence of entrainment on the vertical wind shear, the lifted condensation level (LCL) height, and the properties of a cloud's surrounding atmosphere. ECAPE shows stronger pattern correlations with global regions of intense thunderstorms than previous metrics for updraft speed. In these regions, large CAPE, large shear, and high LCLs conspire to produce wide updrafts that are shielded from the negative effects of dry-air entrainment. ECAPE more skillfully discriminates intense thunderstorms from their less intense counterparts than other metrics commonly used in climatology and climate change studies of thunderstorms. We provide evidence that the well-known land-sea contrast in thunderstorm intensity is a consequence of larger CAPE and higher LCL heights over land than over the ocean.

entraining CAPE↗

Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050

We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplification of population exposure to unprecedented combinations of extreme climate conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to escalate along their current trajectory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality—from published, field-documented mortality events—required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global “hotter-drought fingerprint” from these tree-mortality sites—effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality—across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) v1.1: an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator for large-scale models

Abstract. Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

Doppler lidar, aerosols, convection↗