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NASA NTRS2010

CLARREO Cornerstone of the Earth Observing System: Measuring Decadal Change Through Accurate Emitted Infrared and Reflected Solar Spectra and Radio Occultation

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC Decadal Survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that are used to enable validated long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies that address the effects of climate change on society. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that are sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. For the first time CLARREO will make highly accurate, global, SI-traceable decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood, climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. Climate system natural variability therefore determines what level of accuracy is overkill, and what level is critical to obtain. In this sense, the CLARREO mission requirements are considered optimal from a science value perspective. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are key to understanding decadal changes.

Sandford, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Ice Sheet Change Detection by Satellite Image Differencing

Differencing of digital satellite image pairs highlights subtle changes in near-identical scenes of Earth surfaces. Using the mathematical relationships relevant to photoclinometry, we examine the effectiveness of this method for the study of localized ice sheet surface topography changes using numerical experiments. We then test these results by differencing images of several regions in West Antarctica, including some where changes have previously been identified in altimeter profiles. The technique works well with coregistered images having low noise, high radiometric sensitivity, and near-identical solar illumination geometry. Clouds and frosts detract from resolving surface features. The ETM(plus) sensor on Landsat-7, ALI sensor on EO-1, and MODIS sensor on the Aqua and Terra satellite platforms all have potential for detecting localized topographic changes such as shifting dunes, surface inflation and deflation features associated with sub-glacial lake fill-drain events, or grounding line changes. Availability and frequency of MODIS images favor this sensor for wide application, and using it, we demonstrate both qualitative identification of changes in topography and quantitative mapping of slope and elevation changes.

Bindschadler, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Vision Changes after Space Flight Are Related to Alterations in Folate-Dependent One-Carbon Metabolism

About 20% of astronauts on International Space Station missions have developed measurable ophthalmic changes after flight. This study was conducted to determine whether the folate-dependent 1-carbon pathway is altered in these individuals. Data were modeled to evaluate differences between individuals with ophthalmic changes (n=5) and those without them (n=15). We also correlated mean preflight serum concentrations of the 1-carbon metabolites with changes in measured refraction after flight. Serum homocysteine (HCy), cystathionine, 2-methylcitric acid, and methylmalonic acid concentrations were 25%-45% higher (P<0.001) in astronauts with ophthalmic changes than in those without them. These differences existed before, during, and after flight. Preflight serum HCy and cystathionine, and in-flight serum folate, were significantly (P<0.05) correlated with postflight change in refraction, and preflight serum concentrations of 2-methylcitric acid tended to be associated (P=0.06) with ophthalmic changes. The biochemical differences observed in those with vision issues strongly suggests impairment of the folate-dependent 1-carbon transfer pathway. Impairment of this pathway, by polymorphisms, diet or other means, may interact with components of the microgravity environment to influence these pathophysiologic changes. This study was funded by the NASA Human Research Program.

Smith, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Association Between Cardiovascular and Intraocular Pressure Changes in a 14-Day 6 deg Head Down Tilt (HDT) Bed Rest Study: Possible Implications in Retinal Anatomy

Visual symptoms and intracranial pressure increase reported in astronauts returning from long duration missions in low Earth-orbit are thought to be related to fluid shifts within the body due to microgravity exposure. Because of this possible relation to fluid shifts, studies conducted in head-down tilt (HDT) bed rest are being monitored for potential changes in ocular health. These measures will also serve to determine whether HDT is a suitable ground-based analog to model subclinical cardiovascular and ocular changes that could shed light on the etiology of the VIIP syndrome observed in spaceflight. Sixteen healthy normotensive (12M, 4F, age range 29-54 years), non-smoker and normal weight subjects, volunteered to participate in a 14 day 6 deg head HDT study conducted at the NASA Flight Analogs Research Unit (FARU). This facility provides standard bed rest conditions (diet, wake/sleep time, time allowed in sunlight) during the time that the subjects stay at the FARU. Cardiovascular parameters were obtained in supine posture at BR-5, BR+0, and BR+3 and ocular monitoring was performed weekly. Intraocular pressure (IOP) increased from pre-bed rest BR-3) to the third day into bed rest (BR+3). Values reached a plateau towards the end of the bed rest phase (BR10) and decreased within the first three days of recovery (BR+2) returning to levels comparable to baseline at BR-3. As expected, most cardiovascular parameters were affected by 14 days of HDT bed rest. Plasma volume decreased as a result of bed rest but recovered to baseline levels by BR+3. Indications of cardiovascular deconditioning included increase in both systolic and diastolic blood pressure and heart rate, and a decrease in stroke volume and cardiac output between BR-5 and BR+3. Due to the experimental design of this study, we were not able to test the hypothesis that fluid shifts might be involved in the IOP increase during the bed rest phase, since cardiovascular measures were not available for those time points. There was no correlation between the largest change in IOP (BR-3 versus BR3) and cardiovascular measure changes between baseline (BR-5) and post bed rest (BR+2). While no clinically relevant visual changes were observed during the study, measurement of various retinal parameters was performed with optical coherence tomography (OCT). A decrease in central subfield retinal thickness was observed between BR+2 and baseline at BR-10, but no association was observed with IOP changes. This work investigates the time course of changes in IOP during 14-day HDT bed rest in an attempt to characterize HDT bed rest as a model of the VIIP syndrome and delve into its etiology.

Cromwell, Ronita↗
NASA NTRS2013

Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Detecting Change in Urban Areas at Continental Scales with MODIS Data

Urbanization is one of the most important components of global environmental change, yet most of what we know about urban areas is at the local scale. Remote sensing of urban expansion across large areas provides information on the spatial and temporal patterns of growth that are essential for understanding differences in socioeconomic and political factors that spur different forms of development, as well the social, environmental, and climatic impacts that result. However, mapping urban expansion globally is challenging: urban areas have a small footprint compared to other land cover types, their features are small, they are heterogeneous in both material composition and configuration, and the form and rates of new development are often highly variable across locations. Here we demonstrate a methodology for monitoring urban land expansion at continental to global scales using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The new method focuses on resolving the spectral and temporal ambiguities between urban/non-urban land and stable/changed areas by: (1) spatially constraining the study extent to known locations of urban land; (2) integrating multitemporal data from multiple satellite data sources to classify c. 2010 urban extent; and (3) mapping newly built areas (2000-2010) within the 2010 urban land extent using a multi-temporal composite change detection approach based on MODIS 250 m annual maximum enhanced vegetation index (EVI). We test the method in 15 countries in East-Southeast Asia experiencing different rates and manifestations of urban expansion. A two-tiered accuracy assessment shows that the approach characterizes urban change across a variety of socioeconomic/political and ecological/climatic conditions with good accuracy (70-91% overall accuracy by country, 69-89% by biome). The 250 m EVI data not only improve the classification results, but are capable of distinguishing between change and no-change areas in urban areas. Over 80% of the error in the change detection can be related to definitional issues or error propagation, rather than algorithm error. As such, these methods hold great potential for routine monitoring of urban change, as well as for providing a consistent and up-to-date dataset on urban extent and expansion for a rapidly evolving region.

Urban areas↗
NASA NTRS2015

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Benefits of Incorporating Shipping Containers into the Climate Change Adaption Plans at NASA Wallops Flight Facility

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has several centers and facilities located near the coast that are undoubtedly susceptible to climate change. One of those facilities is Wallops Flight Facility on the Eastern Shore of Virginia which is separated into three areas: Main Base, Mainland, and the Island. Wallops Island has numerous buildings and assets that are vulnerable to flood inundation, intense storms, and storm surge. The shoreline of Wallops Island is prone to beach erosion and is slated for another beach replenishment project in 2019. In addition, current climate projections for NASAs centers and facilities, conducted by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators, warn of inevitable increases in annual temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme events such as heat waves. The aforementioned vulnerabilities Wallops Island faces in addition to the projections of future climate change reveal an urgency for NASA to adjust how new buildings at its centers and facilities near the coast are built to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change. Although the agency has made strides to mitigate the effects of climate change by incorporating L.E.E.D. into new buildings that produce less greenhouse gas, the strides for the agency to institute clear climate adaptation policies for the buildings at its centers and facilities near the coast seem to lag behind. As NASA continues to formulate formidable climate change adaptation plans for its centers and facilities, an architectural trend that should be examined for its potential to replace several old buildings at Wallops Island is shipping containers buildings. Shipping containers or Intermodal Steel Building Units offer an array of benefits such as strength, durability, versatility, modular, and since they can be upcycled, they are also eco-friendly. Some disadvantages of shipping containers are they contain harmful chemicals, insulation must be added, fossil fuels must be used to transport them to the site, and multiple ISBUs are needed. However, the benefits of shipping container buildings could be utilized at NASA centers or facilities near the coast such as Wallops Island on new buildings that are designed to adapt to the impending effects of climate change. Thus, this Masters Research Project will explore how those benefits can be incorporated into the climate change adaptation plans at Wallops Island and make recommendations for policy guidelines and shipping container buildings specific to Wallops Island.

Sustainable Design↗
NASA NTRS2017

Our Globally Changing Climate

Since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth's climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences. While this report focuses especially on observed and projected future changes for the United States, it is important to understand those changes in the global context (this chapter). The world has warmed over the last 150 years, especially over the last six decades, and that warming has triggered many other changes to Earth's climate. Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Thousands of studies conducted by tens of thousands of scientists around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea level; and an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Rainfall patterns and storms are changing, and the occurrence of droughts is shifting.

Wuebbles, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 1: Introduction

While urban areas like New York City and its surrounding metropolitan region are key drivers of climate change through emissions of greenhouse gases, cities are also significantly impacted by climate shifts, both chronic changes and extreme events. These are already affecting the New York metropolitan region, including the five boroughs of New York City through higher temperatures, more intense precipitation, and higher sea levels, and will increasingly do so in the coming decades. The City of New York has embarked on a flexible adaptation pathway (i.e., strategies that can evolve through time as climate risk assessment, evaluation of adaptation strategies, and monitoring continues) to respond to climate change challenges. This entails significant programs to develop resilience in communities and critical infrastructure to observed and projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level. The first NPCC Report laid out the risk management framing for the city and region via flexible adaptation pathways. The second New York City Panel on Climate Change Report (NPCC2) developed the “climate projections of record” that are currently being used by the City of New York in its resilience programs . The NPCC3 2019 Report co-generates new tools and methods for the next generation of climate risk assessments and implementation of region-wide resilience. Co-generation is an interactive process by which stakeholders and scientists work together to produce climate change information that is targeted to decision-making needs. These tools and methods can be used to observe, project, and map climate extremes; monitor risks and responses; and engage with communities to develop effective programs. They are especially important at “transformation points” in the adaptation process when large changes in the structure and function of physical, ecological, and social systems of the city and region are undertaken.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Crop Yield Change Emulator for Use in GCAM and Similar Models: Persephone v1.0

Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multisector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model’s results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

Snyder, Abigail↗
NASA NTRS2020

Temperature-Dependent Changes in the Normal Albedo of the Lunar Surface at 1064 nm

Over the extreme temperature variations experienced in a single lunar day (∆T≈300 K), particular minerals common to the lunar surface show spectral changes at near-infrared wavelengths in laboratory settings (Singer and Roush, 1985; Roush and Singer, 1986, 1987). Variations in temperature can cause variations in the size and shape of crystallographic sites, which control the position, shape, and depth of crystal field absorptions. At an observation wavelength of 1064 nm, the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) should be highly sensitive to temperature-dependent changes of orthopyroxene. Here we analyze temperature-dependent spectral changes of the lunar surface as measured from orbit by LOLA. We couple LOLA measurements of normal albedo with measurements of surface temperature from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment, analyzing the maria and highlands terranes between ±50° in 1°x1° spatial bins. We provide the first evidence of temperature-dependent spectral changes on the lunar surface from orbital observations, finding that the majority of the lunar surface between 50°N and 50°S demonstrates a small, yet measurable, negative change in normal albedo at 1064 nm with temperature (-∆R/∆T). The measurable effect is on the order of a few percent change in reflectance per ~80 K, indicating temperature changes do not have a large effect on measurements of albedo at the sensitivity of the LOLA instrument. Stronger -∆R/∆T values tend to be associated with the maria, and regions with elevated orthopyroxene levels. Our results suggest that single-wavelength lasers may be powerful tools for understanding the distribution of particular minerals on the lunar surface.

Ariel N Deutsch↗
NASA NTRS2020

Use of Otoacousticemission Phase Change to Evaluate Countermeasures for Spaceflight-Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome

Spaceflight-associated neuro-ocular syndrome (SANS) is a human spaceflight risk recognized by NASA. Elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) has been implicated as a root cause of many SANS signs and symptoms, yet there is no reliable noninvasive means of monitoring ICP. We have developed a noninvasive method of monitoring ICP change that exploits ear canal acoustic and otoacoustic emission (OAE) measurements. Changed ICP alters pressure in the inner ear, leading to changes in the tension and position of middle ear (ME) components; tension of these components determines the phase of the stimulus in the ear canal and the OAE response sound transmission back through the ME. The OAE method has been validated in several studies, including our own experiments as part of the NASA Fluid Shifts study. Systematic OAE phase changes demonstrating increased ME tension (an ICP indicator) are observed as posture is changed from seated to supine to head-down tilt (HDT). This effect can be substantially mitigated by lower body negative pressure (LBNP). The OAE technique has also been used on International Space Station (ISS) crewmembers, providing evidence that ICP in microgravity is similar to that seen on the ground in the supine position. The OAE method is also a rapid and noninvasive means of assessing the effectiveness of SANS countermeasures. Here we report results from two studies which used OAEs. In the most recent study (Venous Congestion Countermeasures - VCCM), three promising countermeasures [LBNP, an impedance threshold device (ITD), and veno-occlusive thigh cuffs (VTC)] were applied individually and in combination. In our previous ITD-only study, ITD was investigated for its ability to reduce ICP and cephalic venous congestion in supine and various HDT postures. Internal jugular vein (IJV) ultrasound showed a clear decongestive effect at all postures, however OAE data showed that ITD only caused a phase decrease (tension decrease) in HDT postures. In supine, ITD appeared to INCREASE tension. This paradox leads us to hypothesize that the OAE method is not accurately representing ICP changes with countermeasures (CM), which can alter ME tension through other means, such as ME pressure (MEP) changes. More generally, the exact mechanism for observed OAE response and stimulus phase shifts are not clearly understood, specifically with regard to the effects of MEP. The VCCM study examined the effects of externally-applied MEP on OAE recordings to document the relationship between these parameters. Analysis of these data provide new insights to these OAE mechanisms, in addition to results on CM effectiveness.

Kemp, D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Earth Rotation and Global Change

Global climate change, whether from natural or man-made causes, can be expected to lead to changes in the Earth's rotation. General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the atmosphere that have been used to study the effects of changes in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gasses general predict the globally averaged temperature to increase by 1 degree to 4 degrees C during the next century. This temperature increase is not expected to occur uniformly over the globe, but should exhibit regional variations. This changing atmospheric temperature field will cause changes in the atmospheric wind field and hence in the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM). Since the angular momentum of the atmosphere-solid Earth system is conserved, a thermally-induced change in the AAM will cause consequent changes in the rotation of the solid Earth...

Dickey, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi-Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change

Numerical, process-based simulations of tidewater glacier evolution are necessary to project future sea-level change under various climate scenarios. Previous work has shown that nonlinearities in tidewater glacier and ice stream dynamics can lead to biases in simulated ice mass change in the presence of noisy forcings. Ice sheet modeling projections that are used in the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) utilize atmospheric and oceanic forcings at annual temporal resolution, omitting any higher frequency forcings. Here, we quantify the effect of seasonal (<1 year) tidewater glacier terminus oscillations on decadal-scale (30 years) mass change. We use an idealized geometry to mimic realistic tidewater glacier geometries and investigate the impact of the magnitude of seasonal oscillations, bed slope at the glacier terminus, and basal friction law. We find that omitting seasonal terminus motion results in biased mass change projections, with up to an 39% underestimate or 25% overestimate of mass loss when seasonality is neglected, depending on bed slope and magnitude of oscillations. The bias is most sensitive to the magnitude of the seasonal terminus oscillations and exhibits very little sensitivity to choice of friction law. Although omitting seasonal terminus motion may bias mass change projections of individual glaciers, further work is needed to investigate the impact on ice sheet mass change projections. In order to achieve this, seasonality in atmospheric and oceanic forcings must be adequately represented and observations of seasonal terminus positions and tidewater glacier thickness changes must be acquired to evaluate numerical models. Note: Zip folder contains all videos listed in the supplemental document and can be downloaded for viewing.

D. Felikson↗
NASA NTRS2022

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.

decadal climate↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Faster Tropical Upper Stratospheric Upwelling is Driving Changes in Ozone Chemistry

Trends in N2O and the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) cause trends in O3 through changes in their reactive product gases, NOx and ClOx, but transport plays an important role because it controls the distribution of the long‐lived source gases that produce ozone‐destroying radicals. In this study we show that increased tropical upwelling 10‐5 hPa from 2013‐2021 has changed upper stratospheric (UpS) composition and shifted the balance of O3 loss processes. We use N2O, HNO3, NOx, temperature and O3 data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the SCI‐Sat Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transport Spectrometer (ACE‐FTS) over a 16‐year period to show how changes in reactive nitrogen species affected gas phase ozone chemistry above 30 hPa between June 2013‐May 2021 compared to the previous 8 years, June 2005‐May 2013. We use 2 simulations of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry transport model (CTM), with and without time varying MERRA2 meteorology, to understand how dynamical changes during this 16‐yr period affected O3 through changes in loss via the NOx and ClOx cycles. We also identify the role that the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical zonal winds plays in the UpS composition changes. We find large increases in tropical upwelling and poleward transport in the northern branch of the UpS transport circulation since 2013 that dramatically increased the abundance of the N2O and its odd nitrogen product gases, NOx and HNO3. O3 loss by NOx in the Arctic UpS increased due to dynamically driven composition change, explaining the observed weak O3 recovery in that region since 2005. The increased upwelling also drove decreases in tropical NOx, leading to increased tropical O3 from 12‐6 hPa.

middle atmosphere chemistry and composition↗
NASA NTRS2023

Historical Changes in Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation Can Accelerate Global Warming

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change depend on accurate climate projections for the coming decades. While changes in radiative heat fluxes are known to contribute to surface warming, changes to ocean circulation can also impact the rate of surface warming. Previous studies suggest that projected changes to ocean circulation reduce the rate of global warming. However, these studies consider large greenhouse gas forcing scenarios, which induce a significant buoyancy-driven decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here, we use a climate model to quantify the previously unknown impact of changes to wind-driven ocean circulation on global surface warming. Wind-driven ocean circulation changes amplify the externally forced warming rate by 17% from 1979 to 2014. Accurately simulating changes to the atmospheric circulation is key to improving near-term climate projections.

wind stress↗