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At least 379 records · Page 21

Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations

The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the global mean during the past few decades. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as being a large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large spread in AA and Arctic LRF, which are positively correlated for the historical period of 1951–2014. Thus, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets that show a weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our analyses suggest that the vertical temperature structure of the Arctic boundary layer is more realistically depicted in climate models with weak (w) AA and Arctic LRF (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter and over sea ice, which is more consistent with the observations. These results are based on observations from the year-long Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic, long-term measurements at the Utqiagvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde temperature profiling from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. In addition, the atmospheric energy transport from lower latitudes that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere is more realistically represented by CMIP6/w models. In particular, CMIP6/w models systemically simulate a weaker Arctic atmospheric energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter, which is more consistent with fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). We further show a positive relationship between the magnitude of the present-day transport convergence and the strength of past AA. With respect to the Arctic LRF, we find links between the changes in transport pathways that drive vertical warming structures and local differences in the LRF. This highlights the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF and motivates deeper studies to explicitly link spatial patterns of Arctic feedbacks to changes in the large-scale circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain

This study presents a new physical-biogeochemical modelling framework for simulating lake methane (CH 4 ) emissions at regional scales. The new model, FLaMe-v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane), rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach that enables the simulation of CH 4 emissions across a large number of lakes. Building on the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM) that simulates the lake physics, we develop a suite of biogeochemical modules to simulate transient dynamics of organic Carbon (C), Oxygen (O 2 ), and CH 4 . We first test the performance of FLaMe-v1.0 by analyzing physical and biogeochemical processes in two theoretical lakes with characteristics that can be considered representative for many lakes (an oligotrophic, deep lake driven by cold climate versus a eutrophic, shallow lake driven by warm climate). Next, we evaluate the model by comparing simulated and observed timeseries of CH 4 emissions in four well-surveyed lakes. We then apply FLaMe-v1.0 at the European scale to evaluate simulated diffusive and ebullitive lake CH 4 fluxes against in-situ measurements in both boreal and central European regions. Finally, we provide a first assessment of the spatio-temporal variability in CH 4 emissions from European lakes with a surface area comprised between 0.1–1000 km 2 (n= 108 407, total area = 1.33 × 105 km 2 ), indicating a total emission of 0.97 ± 0.23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , with the uncertainty constrained by combining FLaMe-v1.0 and machine learning techniques. Moreover, 30 % and 70 % of these CH 4 emissions are through diffusive and ebullitive pathways, respectively. Annually averaged CH 4 emission rates per unit lake area during 2010–2016 have a South-to-North decreasing gradient, resulting in a mean over the European domain as 7.39 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1 . Our simulations reveal a strong seasonality (with ice-blocking effects accounted for) in European lake CH 4 emissions, with nearly ten times higher emissions during late summer than during winter. This pronounced seasonal variation highlights the importance of accounting for the sub-annual variability in CH 4 emissions to accurately constrain regional CH 4 budgets. In the future, FLaMe-v1.0 could be embedded into Earth System Models to investigate the feedback between climate warming and global lake CH 4 emissions.

Maisonnier, Manon [Free Univ. of Brussels (Belgium↗

Large-scale solar magnetic fields and H-alpha patterns

Coronal and interplanetary magnetic fields computed from measurements of large-scale photospheric magnetic fields suffer from interruptions in day-to-day observations and the limitation of using only measurements made near the solar central meridian. Procedures were devised for inferring the lines of polarity reversal from H-alpha solar patrol photographs that map the same large-scale features found on Mt. Wilson magnetograms. These features may be monitored without interruption by combining observations from the global network of observatories associated with NOAA's Space Environment Services Center. The patterns of inferred magnetic fields may be followed accurately as far as 60 deg from central meridian. Such patterns will be used to improve predictions of coronal features during the next solar eclipse.

Mcintosh, P. S.↗

The Mariner Mars 1971 orbiter.

The Mariner Mars 1971 (MM '71) orbiter spacecraft, launched toward Mars in the spring of 1971, was designed to offer the first opportunity for sustained observations in the near vicinity of another planet of our solar system. The MM '71 spacecraft, like its predecessors, is fully attitude stabilized about three axes, using the sun and Canopus as references, an orientation which allows use of photovoltaic solar panels for primary power and permits two-way communication to the earth through a high-gain directional antenna. Midcourse and orbit insertion maneuvers use the sun-Canopus orientation as a reference direction for initiating commanded turns. Scientific instruments employed during Mars orbital operations are mounted on a two-degree-of-freedom platform controlled by commands from the central computer and sequencer. Science measurements to be obtained by the MM '71 spacecraft include television visual imaging, infrared radiometry, infrared spectroscopy, ultraviolet spectroscopy, S-band radio occultation, and celestial mechanics.

Scull, J. R.↗

On the distance to the candidate star coincident with A0620-00

High-dispersion echelle spectra of the candidate star for the transient X-ray source A0620-00 are discussed. No absorption or emission lines attributed to the star were found under visual examination of the spectra, but interstellar sodium D lines were clearly visible. Results are presented for measurements of the profiles and central velocities of the sodium absorption lines, and other observations of interstellar features in the general direction of the star are summarized. While the exact distance to the star cannot be determined due to the patchy distribution of the interstellar gas, it is suggested that the star is located between 1.5 and 2.5 kpc; 2 kpc is adopted as the most reasonable value. It is noted that the possibility cannot be ruled out that the star lies beyond 3 kpc and is seen through a hole in the distant neutral hydrogen gas.

Gull, T. R.↗

Reanalysis of the Apollo cosmic gamma-ray spectrum in the 0.3 to 10 MeV energy region

Additional data obtained from the Apollo 16 and 17 missions, together with collateral calculations on background radiation effects, have made possible an improved subtraction of unwanted backgrounds from the diffuse cosmic gamma ray data previously reported from Apollo 15. As a result, the 1 to 10 MeV spectrum is lowered significantly and connects smoothly with recent data at other energies. The inflection reported previously is much less pronounced and has no more than 1.5 sigma significance. Sky occultation by the Apollo 16 spacecraft shows the bulk of the 0.3 to 1 MeV radiation to be diffuse. The analysis of spurious backgrounds points to important improvements for future experiments designed for this spectral region. A light-weight satellite design can give a fourfold improvement in the signal to noise for such a measurement. Use of an anisotropic central crystal, which spins quickly compared with possible time variations in detector background, would enable sensitive limits to be set on galactic plane and point source contributions.

Dyer, C. S.↗

Intensity and pressure shift of the H2 /4,0/ S/1/ quadrupole line

Results are presented for two laboratory measurements of the intensity and central frequency of the (4, 0) S(1) quadrupole line of H2, which were made at pressures of 2.658 and 1.494 atm through a 0.456-km path length. It is found that the absolute line intensity is significantly lower than the value predicted from theoretical matrix elements but is essentially identical to the value derived by Rank et al. (1966). The central-frequency results are shown to verify the pressure shift predicted by McKellar (1974). It is concluded that hydrogen abundances estimated from the equivalent width of the (4,0) S(1) quadrupole line in the spectra of the outer planets will have to be revised upward by nearly a factor of 2.

Bergstralh, J. T.↗

Fracture toughness of boron/aluminum laminates with various proportions of 0 deg and plus or minus 45 deg

The fracture toughness of boron/aluminum laminates was measured on sheet specimens containing central slits of various lengths that represent cracks. The specimens were loaded axially and had various widths. The sheets were made with five laminate orientation. Fracture toughness was calculated for each laminate orientation. Specimens began failing at the ends of the slit with what appeared to be tensile failures of fibers in the primary load carrying laminae. A general fracture toughness parameter independent of laminate orientation was derived on the basis of fiber failure in the principal load carrying laminae. The value of this parameter was proportional to the critical value of the stress intensity factor. The constant of proportionality depended only on the elastic constants of the laminates.

Poe, C. C., Jr.↗

Copernicus crater central peak - Lunar mountain of unique composition

Olivine is identified as the major mafic mineral in a central peak of Copernicus crater. Information on the mineral assemblages of such unsampled lunar surface material is provided by near infrared reflectance spectra (0.7 to 2.5 micrometers) obtained with earth-based telescopes. The composition of the deep-seated material comprising the Copernicus central peak is unique among measured areas. Other lunar terra areas and the wall of Copernicus exhibit spectral characteristics of mineral assemblages comparable to the feldspathic breccias returned by the Apollo missions, with low-calcium orthopyroxene being the major mafic mineral.

Pieters, C. M.↗

Estimates of Lava Eruption Rates at Alba Patera, Mars

The Martian volcanic complex Alba Patera exhibits a suite of well-defined, long and relatively narrow lava flows qualitatively resembling those found in Hawaii. Even without any information on the duration of the Martian flows, eruption rates (total volume discharge/duration of the extrusion) estimates are implied by the physical dimensions of the flows and the likely conjecture that Stephan-Boltzmann radiation is the dominating thermal loss mechanism. The ten flows in this analysis emanate radially from the central vent and were recently measured in length, plan areas, and average thicknesses by shadow measurement techniques. The dimensions of interest are shown. Although perhaps morphologically congruent to certain Hawaiian flows, the dramatically expanded physical dimensions of the Martian flows argues for some markedly distinct differences in lava flow composition for eruption characteristics.

Baloga, S. M.↗

Coastal Zone Color Scanner data of rich coastal waters

Comparisons of chlorophyll concentrations and diffuse attenuation coefficients measured from ships off the central California coast were made with satellite derived estimates of the same parameters using data from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner. Very high chlorophyll concentrations were encountered in Monterey Bay. Although lower chlorophyll values acquired off Pt. Sur agreed satisfactorily with the satellite data, the high chlorophyll values departed markedly from agreement. Two possible causes for the disagreement are suggested. Comparison of diffuse attenuation coefficients from the same data sets showed closer agreement.

Wrigley, R. C.↗

Estimates of vertical crustal movements along the coast of Greece, based on mean sea level data

Mean Annual Sea Level (MASL) data from Greek coastal stations, for the 1969-1982 period, showed crustal stability to a standard deviation of + or - 1.8 cm at 10 of the 18 useful stations, supporting the contention that crustal movements greater than 5 cm can be detected by relative MASL. A comparison of MASL data with gravity changes measured in the Peloponnese and Central regions of Greece suggests that vertical movements occurred along a gradient equal to, or larger than, the free air gradient. MASL data from active volcanic islands have high potential for the detection of uplift prior to eruption.

Lagios, E.↗

A compilation of information and data on the Manson impact structure

A problem for the impact hypothesis for the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) mass extinction is the apparent absence of an identifiable impact site. The Manson Impact Structure is a candidate because it is the largest recognized in the U.S.; it is relatively close to the largest and most abundant shocked quartz grains found at the K-T boundary; and its age is indistinguishable from that of the K-T boundary based on paleontological evidence, fission track dates, and preliminary Ar-40/Ar-39 measurements. The region of northwest central Iowa containing the Manson Impact Structure is covered by Quaternary glacial deposits underlain by Phanerozoic sedimentary rocks (mostly flat-lying carbonates) and Proterozoic red clastic, metamorphic, volcanic, and plutonic rocks. In a circular area about 22 miles (35 km) in diameter around Manson, Iowa, this normal sequence is absent or disturbed and near the center of the disturbed area granitic basement rocks have been uplifted some 20,000 ft (6000m). Attention was drawn to Manson initially by the unusual quality of the groundwater there. Within the structure three roughly concentric zones of rock associations have been identified: (1) displaced strata; (2) completely disrupted strata, and igneous and metamorphic rocks. Manson was established as an impact structure based on its circular shape, its central uplift, and the presence of shocked quartz within the granitic central uplift. A gravity survey identified locations of low-density brecciated rocks and high-density uplifted crystalline rocks, but the outer boundary of the structure could not be established. Aeromagnetic and ground magnetic surveys showed locations and depths of shallowly buried crystalline rock and the locations of faults. A refraction seismic survey identified the crystalline central uplift, determined that the average elevation of bedrock is 70 ft (20 m) higher outside the structure than within, and was used to map the bedrock topography within the structure. A connection between the Manson impact and the K-T boundary may be established or refuted through study of the impact energy, the impact time, and composition of host rock, possible impactors, and impact melts.

Hartung, Jack B.↗

Elevated central venous pressure: A consequence of exercise training-induced hypervolemia

Resting plasma volumes, and arterial and central venous pressures (CVP) were measured in 16 men before and after exercise training to determine if training-induced hypervolemia could be explained by a change in total vascular capacitance. In addition, resting levels of plasma vasopressin (AVP), atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), aldosterone (ALD), and norepinephrine (NE) were measured before and after training. The same measurements of vacular volume, pressures, and plasma hormones were measured in 8 subjects who did not undergo exercise and acted as controls. The exercise training program consisted of 10 weeks of controlled cycle exercise for 30 min/d, 4 d/wk at 75 to 80 percent of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). A training effect was verified by a 20 percent increase in VO2max, a resting bradycardia, and a 370 ml (9 percent) increase in blood volume. Mean arterial blood pressure was unaltered by exercise training, but resting CVP increased. The percent change in blood volume from before to after training was linearly related to the percent change in CVP. As a consequence of elevations in both blood volume and CVP, the volume-to-pressure ratio was essentially unchanged following exercise training. Plasma AVP, ANP, ALD, and NE were unaltered. Results indicate that elevated CVP is a consequence of training-induced hypervolemia without alteration in total effective venous capacitance. This may represent a resetting of the pressure-volume stimulus-response relation for regulation of blood volume.

Convertino, Victor A.↗

Impact Cratering Calculations

We examined the von Mises and Mohr-Coulomb strength models with and without damage effects and developed a model for dilatancy. The models and results are given in O'Keefe et al. We found that by incorporating damage into the models that we could in a single integrated impact calculation, starting with the bolide in the atmosphere produce final crater profiles having the major features found in the field measurements. These features included a central uplift, an inner ring, circular terracing and faulting. This was accomplished with undamaged surface strengths of approximately 0.1 GPa and at depth strengths of approximately 1.0 GPa. We modeled the damage in geologic materials using a phenomenological approach, which coupled the Johnson-Cook damage model with the CTH code geologic strength model. The objective here was not to determine the distribution of fragment sizes, but rather to determine the effect of brecciated and comminuted material on the crater evolution, fault production, ejecta distribution, and final crater morphology.

Ahrens, Thomas J.↗

CRYSTAL-FACE: A Field Experiment and Modeling Program Focused on Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers

The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) is a measurement campaign designed to investigate tropical Cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes. Understanding the production of upper tropospheric cirrus clouds is essential for the successful modeling of 'he Earth's climate. The deployment phase will occur in July, 2002 in southern Florida, USA. Several aircraft will be used, including the ER-2 and Proteus for cloud remote sensing, the WB-57 and Citation for in situ cloud measurements, the P-3 with a Doppler radar for characterization of convective systems, and the Twin otter for sampling of inflow airmasses. In addition, numerous ground-based and satellite remote sensing measurements will be contributing. A central focus of the mission is improvement of our ability to model cirrus clouds with numerical models. Several research groups with a variety of model types (cloud-resolving models, mesoscale models, weather-prediction models, and general circulation models) will be participating. Our hope is to fully characterize several mulonimbus/cirrus anvil systems that can be used as case studies for testing and improvement of the models. The models will be used for investigating cirrus generation and dissipation processes and the sensitivity of tropical cirrus to convective intensity and aerosol properties. Ultimately, we expect this effort to improve our ability to represent tropical cirrus in GCMs. A general description of the CRYSTAL-FACE program will be presented, with an emphasis on the cloud modeling approach.

Jenson, Eric↗

Electric Field Magnitude and Radar Reflectivity as a Function of Distance from Cloud Edge

The results of analyses of data collected during a field investigation of thunderstorm anvil and debris clouds are reported. Statistics of the magnitude of the electric field are determined as a function of distance from cloud edge. Statistics of radar reflectivity near cloud edge are also determined. Both analyses use in-situ airborne field mill and cloud physics data coupled with ground-based radar measurements obtained in east-central Florida during the summer convective season. Electric fields outside of anvil and debris clouds averaged less than 3 kV/m. The average radar reflectivity at the cloud edge ranged between 0 and 5 dBZ.

Ward, Jennifer G.↗

GMAO Seasonal Forecast Ensemble Exploration

GMAO Sub/Seasonal prediction system (S2S) has recently been upgraded. A complete set (1981-2016) of 9-months hindcasts for the previous and current versions (S2S-1.0 and S2S-2.1 respectively) allows for the evaluation of the forecast skill and a study of various characteristics of the ensemble forecasts in particular. We compared the intra-seasonal, interannual and intra-ensemble SST variability of the two systems against the observed. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we analyzed the consistency of the forecasts ensembles by studying rank histograms and comparing the ensemble spread with the standard error of the estimate.The S2S-2.1 ensemble appears to be more consistent with observations in Niño1+2 region compared to S2S-1.0, while in the central equatorial Pacific ocean this measure is comparably good for both systems. The S2S-1.0 system tends to be under dispersive, while the new system is under dispersive only at very short lead times, but tends to be over dispersive at long leads and for forecasts verifying in spring in Niño 3.4 region.Overall, the new system has greater skill in predicting ENSO. The evaluation techniques tested here will be applied for testing of the next generation sub/seasonal forecast system under development.

Borovikov, Anna↗