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At least 379 records · Page 21

Development and Application of Schema Based Occupant-Centric Building Performance Metrics

Occupant behavior can significantly influence the operation and performance of buildings. Many occupant-centric key performance indicators (KPIs) rely on having accurate counts of the number of occupants in a building, which is very different to how occupancy information is currently collected in the majority of buildings today. To address this gap, the authors develop a standardized methodology for the calculation of percent space utilization for buildings, which is formulated with respect to two prevalent operational data schemas: the Brick Schema and Project Haystack. The methodology is scalable across different levels of spatial granularity and irrespective of sensor placement. Moreover, the methods are intended to make use of typical occupancy sensors that capture presence level occupancy and not counts of people. Since occupant-hours is a preferable metric to use in KPI calculations, a method to convert between percent space utilization and occupant-hours using the design occupancy for a space is also developed. The methodology is demonstrated on a small commercial office space in Boulder, Colorado using data collected between June 2018 and February 2019. A multiple linear regression is performed that shows strong evidence for a relationship between building energy consumption and percent space utilization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A COMPARISON OF FLARE FORECASTING METHODS. I. RESULTS FROM THE “ALL-CLEAR” WORKSHOP

Solar flares produce radiation that can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare forecasting using photospheric magnetic field observations has proliferated, with varying claims about how well each works. Because of the different analysis techniques and data sets used, it is essentially impossible to compare the results from the literature. This problem is exacerbated by the low event rates of large solar flares. The challenges of forecasting rare events have long been recognized in the meteorology community, but have yet to be fully acknowledged by the space weather community. During the interagency workshop on “all clear” forecasts held in Boulder, CO in 2009, the performance of a number of existing algorithms was compared on common data sets, specifically line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity images from the Michelson Doppler Imager, with consistent definitions of what constitutes an event. We demonstrate the importance of making such systematic comparisons, and of using standard verification statistics to determine what constitutes a good prediction scheme. When a comparison was made in this fashion, no one method clearly outperformed all others, which may in part be due to the strong correlations among the parameters used by different methods to characterize an active region. For M-class flares and above, the set of methods tends toward a weakly positive skill score (as measured with several distinct metrics), with no participating method proving substantially better than climatological forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Extreme Debris Disk Variability: Exploring the Diverse Outcomes of Large Asteroid Impacts During the Era of Terrestrial Planet Formation

The most dramatic phases of terrestrial planet formation are thought to be oligarchic and chaotic growth, on timescales of up to 100–200 Myr, when violent impacts occur between large planetesimals of sizes up to protoplanets. Such events are marked by the production of large amounts of debris, as has been observed in some exceptionally bright and young debris disks (termed extreme debris disks). Here we report five years of Spitzer measurements of such systems around two young solar-type stars: ID8 and P1121. The short-term (weekly to monthly) and long-term (yearly) disk variability is consistent with the aftermaths of large impacts involving large asteroid-sized bodies. We demonstrate that an impact-produced clump of optically thick dust, under the influence of the dynamical and viewing geometry effects, can produce short-term modulation in the disk light curves. The long-term disk flux variation is related to the collisional evolution within the impact-produced fragments once released into a circumstellar orbit. The time-variable behavior observed in the P1121 system is consistent with a hypervelocity impact prior to 2012 that produced vapor condensates as the dominant impact product. Two distinct short-term modulations in the ID8 system suggest two violent impacts at different times and locations. Its long-term variation is consistent with the collisional evolution of two different populations of impact-produced debris dominated by either vapor condensates or escaping boulders. The bright, variable emission from the dust produced in large impacts from extreme debris disks provides a unique opportunity to study violent events during the era of terrestrial planet formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assessment of virtual towers performed with scanning wind lidars and Ka-band radars during the XPIA experiment

During the eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrumentation Assessment (XPIA) campaign, which was carried out at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) in spring 2015, multiple-Doppler scanning strategies were carried out with scanning wind lidars and Ka-band radars. Specifically, step–stare measurements were collected simultaneously with three scanning Doppler lidars, while two scanning Ka-band radars carried out simultaneous range height indicator (RHI) scans. The XPIA experiment provided the unique opportunity to compare directly virtual-tower measurements performed simultaneously with Ka-band radars and Doppler wind lidars. Furthermore, multiple-Doppler measurements were assessed against sonic anemometer data acquired from the meteorological tower (met-tower) present at the BAO site and a lidar wind profiler. This survey shows that – despite the different technologies, measurement volumes and sampling periods used for the lidar and radar measurements – a very good accuracy is achieved for both remote-sensing techniques for probing horizontal wind speed and wind direction with the virtual-tower scanning technique.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Assessing the accuracy of microwave radiometers and radio acoustic sounding systems for wind energy applications

To assess current remote-sensing capabilities for wind energy applications, a remote-sensing system evaluation study, called XPIA (eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrument Assessment), was held in the spring of 2015 at NOAA's Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) facility. Several remote-sensing platforms were evaluated to determine their suitability for the verification and validation processes used to test the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models. The evaluation of these platforms was performed with respect to well-defined reference systems: the BAO's 300 m tower equipped at six levels (50, 100, 150, 200, 250, and 300 m) with 12 sonic anemometers and six temperature ( T ) and relative humidity (RH) sensors; and approximately 60 radiosonde launches. In this study we first employ these reference measurements to validate temperature profiles retrieved by two co-located microwave radiometers (MWRs) as well as virtual temperature ( T v ) measured by co-located wind profiling radars equipped with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs). Results indicate a mean absolute error (MAE) in the temperature retrieved by the microwave radiometers below 1.5 K in the lowest 5?km of the atmosphere and a mean absolute error in the virtual temperature measured by the radio acoustic sounding systems below 0.8 K in the layer of the atmosphere covered by these measurements (up to approximately 1.6-2 km). We also investigated the benefit of the vertical velocity correction applied to the speed of sound before computing the virtual temperature by the radio acoustic sounding systems. We find that using this correction frequently increases the RASS error, and that it should not be routinely applied to all data. Water vapor density (WVD) profiles measured by the MWRs were also compared with similar measurements from the soundings, showing the capability of MWRs to follow the vertical profile measured by the sounding and finding a mean absolute error below 0.5 g m -3 in the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere. However, the relative humidity profiles measured by the microwave radiometer lack the high-resolution details available from radiosonde profiles. Furthermore, an encouraging and significant finding of this study was that the coefficient of determination between the lapse rate measured by the microwave radiometer and the tower measurements over the tower levels between 50 and 300 m ranged from 0.76 to 0.91, proving that these remote-sensing instruments can provide accurate information on atmospheric stability conditions in the lower boundary layer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of single and multiple Doppler lidar techniques to measure complex flow during the XPIA field campaign

Abstract. Accurate three-dimensional information of wind flow fields can be an important tool in not only visualizing complex flow but also understanding the underlying physical processes and improving flow modeling. However, a thorough analysis of the measurement uncertainties is required to properly interpret results. The XPIA (eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrumentation Assessment) field campaign conducted at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) in Erie, CO, from 2 March to 31 May 2015 brought together a large suite of in situ and remote sensing measurement platforms to evaluate complex flow measurement strategies. In this paper, measurement uncertainties for different single and multi-Doppler strategies using simple scan geometries (conical, vertical plane and staring) are investigated. The tradeoffs (such as time–space resolution vs. spatial coverage) among the different measurement techniques are evaluated using co-located measurements made near the BAO tower. Sensitivity of the single-/multi-Doppler measurement uncertainties to averaging period are investigated using the sonic anemometers installed on the BAO tower as the standard reference. Finally, the radiometer measurements are used to partition the measurement periods as a function of atmospheric stability to determine their effect on measurement uncertainty. It was found that with an increase in spatial coverage and measurement complexity, the uncertainty in the wind measurement also increased. For multi-Doppler techniques, the increase in uncertainty for temporally uncoordinated measurements is possibly due to requiring additional assumptions of stationarity along with horizontal homogeneity and less representative line-of-sight velocity statistics. It was also found that wind speed measurement uncertainty was lower during stable conditions compared to unstable conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Improved observations of turbulence dissipation rates from wind profiling radars

Observations of turbulence dissipation rates in the planetary boundary layer are crucial for validation of parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models. However, because dissipation rates are difficult to obtain, they are infrequently measured through the depth of the boundary layer. For this reason, demonstrating the ability of commonly used wind profiling radars (WPRs) to estimate this quantity would be greatly beneficial. During the XPIA field campaign at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory, two WPRs operated in an optimized configuration, using high spectral resolution for increased accuracy of Doppler spectral width, specifically chosen to estimate turbulence from a vertically pointing beam. Multiple post-processing techniques, including different numbers of spectral averages and peak processing algorithms for calculating spectral moments, were evaluated to determine the most accurate procedures for estimating turbulence dissipation rates using the information contained in the Doppler spectral width, using sonic anemometers mounted on a 300 m tower for validation. Furthermore, the optimal settings were determined, producing a low bias, which was later corrected. Resulting estimations of turbulence dissipation rates correlated well ( R 2 = 0.54 and 0.41) with the sonic anemometers, and profiles up to 2 km from the 449 MHz WPR and 1 km from the 915 MHz WPR were observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identification of tower-wake distortions using sonic anemometer and lidar measurements

The eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrumentation Assessment (XPIA) field campaign took place in March through May 2015 at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory, utilizing its 300 m meteorological tower, instrumented with two sonic anemometers mounted on opposite sides of the tower at six heights. This allowed for at least one sonic anemometer at each level to be upstream of the tower at all times and for identification of the times when a sonic anemometer is in the wake of the tower frame. Other instrumentation, including profiling and scanning lidars aided in the identification of the tower wake. Here we compare pairs of sonic anemometers at the same heights to identify the range of directions that are affected by the tower for each of the opposing booms. The mean velocity and turbulent kinetic energy are used to quantify the wake impact on these first- and second-order wind measurements, showing up to a 50% reduction in wind speed and an order of magnitude increase in turbulent kinetic energy. Comparisons of wind speeds from profiling and scanning lidars confirmed the extent of the tower wake, with the same reduction in wind speed observed in the tower wake, and a speed-up effect around the wake boundaries. Wind direction differences between pairs of sonic anemometers and between sonic anemometers and lidars can also be significant, as the flow is deflected by the tower structure. Comparisons of lengths of averaging intervals showed a decrease in wind speed deficit with longer averages, but the flow deflection remains constant over longer averages. Furthermore, asymmetry exists in the tower effects due to the geometry and placement of the booms on the triangular tower. An analysis of the percentage of observations in the wake that must be removed from 2 min mean wind speed and 20 min turbulent values showed that removing even small portions of the time interval due to wakes impacts these two quantities. Furthermorew, a vast majority of intervals have no observations in the tower wake, so removing the full 2 or 20 min intervals does not diminish the XPIA dataset.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Vertical profiles of the 3-D wind velocity retrieved from multiple wind lidars performing triple range-height-indicator scans

Abstract. Vertical profiles of 3-D wind velocity are retrieved from triple range-height-indicator (RHI) scans performed with multiple simultaneous scanning Doppler wind lidars. This test is part of the eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrumentation Assessment (XPIA) campaign carried out at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory. The three wind velocity components are retrieved and then compared with the data acquired through various profiling wind lidars and high-frequency wind data obtained from sonic anemometers installed on a 300 m meteorological tower. The results show that the magnitude of the horizontal wind velocity and the wind direction obtained from the triple RHI scans are generally retrieved with good accuracy. However, poor accuracy is obtained for the evaluation of the vertical velocity, which is mainly due to its typically smaller magnitude and to the error propagation connected with the data retrieval procedure and accuracy in the experimental setup.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Estimation of turbulence dissipation rate and its variability from sonic anemometer and wind Doppler lidar during the XPIA field campaign

Despite turbulence being a fundamental transport process in the boundary layer, the capability of current numerical models to represent it is undermined by the limits of the adopted assumptions, notably that of local equilibrium. Here we leverage the potential of extensive observations in determining the variability in turbulence dissipation rate (ϵ). These observations can provide insights towards the understanding of the scales at which the major assumption of local equilibrium between generation and dissipation of turbulence is invalid. Typically, observations of ϵ require time- and labor-intensive measurements from sonic and/or hot-wire anemometers. We explore the capability of wind Doppler lidars to provide measurements of ϵ. We refine and extend an existing method to accommodate different atmospheric stability conditions. To validate our approach, we estimate ϵ from four wind Doppler lidars during the 3-month XPIA campaign at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (Colorado), and we assess the uncertainty of the proposed method by data intercomparison with sonic anemometer measurements of ϵ. Our analysis of this extensive dataset provides understanding of the climatology of turbulence dissipation over the course of the campaign. Further, the variability in ϵ with atmospheric stability, height, and wind speed is also assessed. Finally, we present how ϵ increases as nocturnal turbulence is generated during low-level jet events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Underestimation of column NO 2 amounts from the OMI satellite compared to diurnally varying ground-based retrievals from multiple PANDORA spectrometer instruments

Retrievals of total column NO 2 (TCNO 2 ) are compared for 14 sites from the Ozone Measuring Instrument (OMI using OMNO2-NASA v3.1) on the AURA satellite and from multiple ground-based PANDORA spectrometer instruments making direct-sun measurements. While OMI accurately provides the daily global distribution of retrieved TCNO 2 , OMI almost always underestimates the local amount of TCNO 2 by 50 % to 100 % in polluted areas, while occasionally the daily OMI value exceeds that measured by PANDORA at very clean sites. Compared to local ground-based or aircraft measurements, OMI cannot resolve spatially variable TCNO 2 pollution within a city or urban areas, which makes it less suitable for air quality assessments related to human health. In addition to systematic underestimates in polluted areas, OMI's selected 13:30 Equator crossing timepolar orbit causes it to miss the frequently much higher values of TCNO 2 that occur before or after the OMI overpass time. Six discussed Northern Hemisphere PANDORA sites have multi-year data records (Busan,Seoul, Washington DC, Waterflow, New Mexico, Boulder, Colorado, and Mauna Loa),and one site in the Southern Hemisphere (Buenos Aires, Argentina). The first four of these sites and Buenos Aires frequently have high TCNO 2 (TCNO 2 > 0.5 DU). Eight additional sites have shorter-term data records in the US and South Korea. One of these is a 1-year data record from a highly polluted site at City College in New York City with pollution levels comparable to Seoul, South Korea. OMI-estimated air mass factor, surface reflectivity, and the OMI 24 km × 13 km FOV (field of view)are three factors that can cause OMI to underestimate TCNO 2 . Because of the local inhomogeneity of NO x emissions, the large OMI FOV is the most likely factor for consistent underestimates when comparing OMI TCNO 2 to retrievals from the small PANDORA effective FOV (measured in m 2 ) calculated from the solar diameter of 0.5°.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The SPectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN): An instrument to investigate ice nucleation

The SPectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) is a commercially available ice nucleating particle (INP) counter manufactured by Droplet Measurement Technologies in Boulder, CO. The SPIN is a continuous flow diffusion chamber with parallel plate geometry based on the Zurich Ice Nucleation Chamber and the Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber. This study presents a standard description for using the SPIN instrument and also highlights methods to analyze measurements in more advanced ways. It characterizes and describes the behavior of the SPIN chamber, reports data from laboratory measurements, and quantifies uncertainties associated with the measurements. Experiments with ammonium sulfate are used to investigate homogeneous freezing of deliquesced haze droplets and droplet breakthrough. Experiments with kaolinite, NX illite, and silver iodide are used to investigate heterogeneous ice nucleation. SPIN nucleation results are compared to those from the literature. A machine learning approach for analyzing depolarization data from the SPIN optical particle counter is also presented (as an advanced use). Altogether, we report that the SPIN is able to reproduce previous INP counter measurements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Early Holocene cold snaps and their expression in the moraine record of the eastern European Alps

Glaciers preserve climate variations in their geological and geomorphological records, which makes them prime candidates for climate reconstructions. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the past millennia is particularly relevant first because the amplitude and frequency of natural climate variability during the Holocene provides the climatic context against which modern, human-induced climate change must be assessed. Second, the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial promises important insights into the climate system during warming, which is of particular interest with respect to ongoing climate change. Evidence of stable ice margin positions that record cooling during the past 12 kyr are preserved in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the eastern European Alps, the Jamtal (JAM) and the Laraintal (LAR). We mapped and dated moraines in these catchments including historical ridges using beryllium-10 surface exposure dating (10Be SED) techniques and correlate resulting moraine formation intervals with climate proxy records to evaluate the spatial and temporal scale of these cold phases. The new geochronologies indicate the formation of moraines during the early Holocene (EH), ca. 11.0 ± 0.7 ka (n = 19). Boulder ages along historical moraines (n = 6) suggest at least two glacier advances during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250–1850 CE) around 1300 CE and in the second half of the 18th century. An earlier advance to the same position may have occurred around 500 CE. The Jamtal and Laraintal moraine chronologies provide evidence that millennial-scale EH warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cooling. The timing of EH moraine formation coincides with brief temperature drops identified in local and regional paleoproxy records, most prominently with the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) and is consistent with moraine deposition in other catchments in the European Alps and in the Arctic region. This consistency points to cooling beyond the local scale and therefore a regional or even hemispheric climate driver. Freshwater input sourced from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which changed circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, is a plausible explanation for EH cooling and moraine formation in the Nordic region and in Europe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

University of Colorado and Black Swift Technologies RPAS-based measurements of the lower atmosphere during LAPSE-RATE

Abstract. Between 14 and 20 July 2018, small remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPASs) were deployed to the San Luis Valley of Colorado (USA) together with a variety of surface-based remote and in situ sensors as well as radiosonde systems as part of the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE). The observations from LAPSE-RATE were aimed at improving our understanding of boundary layer structure, cloud and aerosol properties, and surface–atmosphere exchange and provide detailed information to support model evaluation and improvement work. The current paper describes the observations obtained using four different types of RPASs deployed by the University of Colorado Boulder and Black Swift Technologies. These included the DataHawk2, the Talon and the TTwistor (University of Colorado), and the S1 (Black Swift Technologies). Together, these aircraft collected over 30 h of data throughout the northern half of the San Luis Valley, sampling altitudes between the surface and 914 m a.g.l. Data from these platforms are publicly available through the Zenodo archive and are co-located with other LAPSE-RATE data as part of the Zenodo LAPSE-RATE community (https://zenodo.org/communities/lapse-rate/, last access: 27 May 2021). The primary DOIs for these datasets are https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3891620 (DataHawk2, de Boer et al., 2020a, e), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4096451 (Talon, de Boer et al., 2020d), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4110626 (TTwistor, de Boer et al., 2020b), and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3861831 (S1, Elston and Stachura, 2020).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Turbulence dissipation rate estimated from lidar observations during the LAPSE-RATE field campaign

The International Society for Atmospheric Research using Remotely-piloted Aircraft (ISARRA) hosted a flight week in July 2018 to demonstrate unmanned aircraft systems' (UASs) capabilities in sampling the atmospheric boundary layer. This week-long experiment was called the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign. Numerous remotely piloted aircraft and ground-based instruments were deployed with the objective of capturing meso- and microscale phenomena in the atmospheric boundary layer. The University of Oklahoma deployed one Halo Streamline lidar, and the University of Colorado Boulder deployed two WindCube lidars. In this paper, we use data collected from these Doppler lidars to estimate turbulence dissipation rate throughout the campaign. We observe large temporal variability of turbulence dissipation close to the surface with the WindCube lidars that is not detected by the Halo Streamline. However, the Halo lidar enables estimating dissipation rate within the whole boundary layer, where a diurnal variability emerges. We also find a higher correspondence in turbulence dissipation between the WindCube lidars, which are not co-located, compared to the Halo and WindCube lidar that are co-located, suggesting a significant influence of measurement volume on the retrieved values of dissipation rate.

WIND ENERGY↗

Cosmogenic 21 Ne exposure ages on late Pleistocene moraines in Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, USA

We report new cosmogenic 21 Ne in quartz exposure ages from 18 samples on three distinct moraines deposited in the Lost Creek drainage, approximately 3–7 km down-valley from Lassen Peak in Lassen Volcanic National Park. Although measuring 21 Ne in quartz is generally straightforward, accurate 21Ne exposure dating of deposits of late Pleistocene is rarely possible due to the significant quantities of non-cosmogenic 21 Ne present in most lithologies. Young quartz-bearing volcanic rocks have been observed to be an exception. We take advantage of moraine boulders sourced from the ~28 ka dacite of Lassen Peak to generate a chronology of alpine deglaciation in Lassen Volcanic National Park. Ages from three distinct moraines are in stratigraphic order at 22.1 ± 3.8, 20.2 ± 2.4, and 15.3 ± 3.8 ka and generally agree with other terminal and some recessional moraine ages across the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada of the western United States. To date, these are among the youngest surfaces ever dated using cosmogenic 21 Ne and provide a cost-effective proof-of-concept approach to dating moraines where applicable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Late Holocene glacier and climate fluctuations in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain ranges, northwestern Canada

Over the last century, northwestern Canada experienced some of the highest rates of tropospheric warming globally, which caused glaciers in the region to rapidly retreat. Our study seeks to extend the record of glacier fluctuations and assess climate drivers prior to the instrumental record in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountains of northwestern Canada. We collected 27 10 Be surface exposure ages across nine cirque and valley glacier moraines to constrain the timing of their emplacement. Cirque and valley glaciers in this region reached their greatest Holocene extents in the latter half of the Little Ice Age (1600–1850 CE). Four erratic boulders, 10–250 m distal from late Holocene moraines, yielded 10 Be exposure ages of 10.9–11.6 ka, demonstrating that by ca. 11 ka, alpine glaciers were no more extensive than during the last several hundred years. Estimated temperature change obtained through reconstruction of equilibrium line altitudes shows that since ca. 1850 CE, mean annual temperatures have risen 0.2–2.3 °C. We use our glacier chronology and the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to estimate that from 1000 CE, glaciers in this region reached a maximum total volume of 34–38 km 3 between 1765 and 1855 CE and had lost nearly half their ice volume by 2019 CE. OGGM was unable to produce modeled glacier lengths that match the timing or magnitude of the maximum glacier extent indicated by the 10 Be chronology. However, when applied to the entire Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain region, past millennium OGGM simulations using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) yield late Holocene glacier volume change temporally consistent with our moraine and remote sensing record, while the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model 2 (MRI-ESM2) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) fail to produce modeled glacier change consistent with our glacier chronology. Finally, OGGM forced by future climate projections under varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios predicts 85 % to over 97 % glacier volume loss by the end of the 21st century. The loss of glaciers from this region will have profound impacts on local ecosystems and communities that rely on meltwater from glacierized catchments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Antarctic permafrost processes and antiphase dynamics of cold-based glaciers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys inferred from 10 Be and 26 Al cosmogenic nuclides

Abstract. Soil and sediment mixing and associated permafrost processes are not widely studied or understood in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica. In this study, we investigate the stability and depositional history of near-surface permafrost sediments to ∼ 3 m depth in the Pearse and lower Wright valleys using measured cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al depth profiles. In Pearse Valley, we estimate a minimum depositional age of ∼ 74 ka for the active layer and paleoactive-layer sediments (< 0.65 m). Combined depth profile modelling of 10Be and 26Al gives a depositional age for near-surface (< 1.65 m) permafrost in Pearse Valley of 180 +20/-40 ka, implying that the deposition of permafrost sediments predates MIS 5 advances of Taylor Glacier. Deeper permafrost sediments (> 2.09 m) in Pearse Valley are thus inferred to have a depositional age of > 180 ka. At a coastal, lower-elevation site in neighbouring lower Wright Valley, 10Be and 26Al depth profiles from a second permafrost core exhibit near-constant concentrations with depth and indicate the sediments are either vertically mixed after deposition or sufficiently young so that post-depositional nuclide production is negligible relative to inheritance. 26Al/10Be concentration ratios for both depth profiles range between 4.0 and 5.2 and are all lower than the nominal surface production rate ratio of 6.75, indicating that prior to deposition, these sediments experienced complex, yet similar, exposure–burial histories. Assuming a single-cycle exposure–burial scenario, the observed 26Al/10Be ratios are equivalent to a total minimum exposure–burial history of ∼ 1.2 Myr. In proximity to the depth profile core site, we measured cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al in three granite cobbles from thin, patchy drift (Taylor 2 Drift) in Pearse Valley to constrain the timing of retreat of Taylor Glacier. Assuming simple continuous exposure, our minimum, zero-erosion exposure ages suggest Taylor Glacier partially retreated from Pearse Valley no later than 65–74 ka. The timing of retreat after 65 ka and until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when Taylor Glacier was at a minimum position remains unresolved. The surface cobble ages and permafrost processes reveal Taylor Glacier advances during MIS 5 were non-erosive or mildly erosive, preserving the underlying permafrost sediments and peppering boulders and cobbles upon an older, relict surface. Our results are consistent with U/Th ages from central Taylor Valley and suggest changes in moisture delivery over Taylor Dome during MIS 5e, 5c, and 5a appear to be associated with the extent of the Ross Ice Shelf and sea ice in the Ross Sea. These data provide further evidence of antiphase behaviour through retreat of a peripheral lobe of Taylor Glacier in Pearse Valley, a region that was glaciated during MIS 5. We suggest a causal relationship of cold-based glacier advance and retreat that is controlled by an increase in moisture availability during retreat of sea ice and perhaps the Ross Ice Shelf, as well as, conversely, a decrease during times of sea ice and Ross Ice Shelf expansion in the Ross Sea.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗