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At least 379 records · Page 21

Constraining Black Carbon Aerosol over Asia using OMI Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth and the Adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Accurate estimates of the emissions and distribution of black carbon (BC) in the region referred to here as Southeastern Asia (70degE-l50degE, 11degS-55degN) are critical to studies of the atmospheric environment and climate change. Analysis of modeled BC concentrations compared to in situ observations indicates levels are underestimated over most of Southeast Asia when using any of four different emission inventories. We thus attempt to reduce uncertainties in BC emissions and improve BC model simulations by developing top-down, spatially resolved, estimates of BC emissions through assimilation of OMI observations of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) with the GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint for April and October of 2006. Overwhelming enhancements, up to 500%, in anthropogenic BC emissions are shown after optimization over broad areas of Southeast Asia in April. In October, the optimization of anthropogenic emissions yields a slight reduction (1-5%) over India and parts of southern China, while emissions increase by 10-50% over eastern China. Observational data from in situ measurements and AERONET observations are used to evaluate the BC inversions and assess the bias between OMI and AERONET AAOD. Low biases in BC concentrations are improved or corrected in most eastern and central sites over China after optimization, while the constrained model still underestimates concentrations in Indian sites in both April and October, possibly as a. consequence of low prior emissions. Model resolution errors may contribute up to a factor of 2.5 to the underestimate of surface BC concentrations over northern India. We also compare the optimized results using different anthropogenic emission inventories and discuss the sensitivity of top-down constraints on anthropogenic emissions with respect to biomass burning emissions. In addition, the impacts of brown carbon, the formulation of the observation operator, and different a priori constraints on the optimization are investigated. Overall, despite these limitations and uncertainties, using OMI AAOD to constrain BC sources improves model representation of BC distributions, particularly over China.

Aerosols↗

Four Problematic Methods in Reliability Analysis

Some basic methods used in reliability analysis are problematic because they produce incorrect and overoptimistic predictions. Initially gratifying forecasts are often invalidated by testing and operational experience. The problematic methods in reliability analysis include estimating the system failure rate as the sum of component failure rates, assuming that reliability growth continues indefinitely during testing, overestimating the benefits of redundancy, and using the fault tolerance count instead of a detailed reliability analysis. Reliability analysis can produce more optimism than accuracy. This bug may now be a feature. The optimistic bias inevitable in project planning should be corrected by realistic reliability analysis that reflects relevant experience. That the repeated poor performance of reliability analysis is found to be surprising suggests willful blindness. Rigorous methods and impartial critical review are necessary to improve reliability analysis.

Reliability analysis↗

Four Problematic Methods in Reliability Analysis

Some basic methods used in reliability analysis are problematic because they produce incorrect and overoptimistic predictions. Initially gratifying forecasts are often invalidated by testing and operational experience. The problematic methods in reliability analysis include estimating the system failure rate as the sum of component failure rates, assuming that reliability growth continues indefinitely during testing, overestimating the benefits of redundancy, and using the fault tolerance count instead of a detailed reliability analysis. Reliability analysis can produce more optimism than accuracy. This bug may now be a feature. The optimistic bias inevitable in project planning should be corrected by realistic reliability analysis that reflects relevant experience. That the repeated poor performance of reliability analysis is found to be surprising suggests willful blindness. Rigorous methods and impartial critical review are necessary to improve reliability analysis.

Reliability analysis↗

System Dynamic Analysis of a Wind Tunnel Model with Applications to Improve Aerodynamic Data Quality

The research investigates the effect of wind tunnel model system dynamics on measured aerodynamic data. During wind tunnel tests designed to obtain lift and drag data, the required aerodynamic measurements are the steady-state balance forces and moments, pressures, and model attitude. However, the wind tunnel model system can be subjected to unsteady aerodynamic and inertial loads which result in oscillatory translations and angular rotations. The steady-state force balance and inertial model attitude measurements are obtained by filtering and averaging data taken during conditions of high model vibrations. The main goals of this research are to characterize the effects of model system dynamics on the measured steady-state aerodynamic data and develop a correction technique to compensate for dynamically induced errors. Equations of motion are formulated for the dynamic response of the model system subjected to arbitrary aerodynamic and inertial inputs. The resulting modal model is examined to study the effects of the model system dynamic response on the aerodynamic data. In particular, the equations of motion are used to describe the effect of dynamics on the inertial model attitude, or angle of attack, measurement system that is used routinely at the NASA Langley Research Center and other wind tunnel facilities throughout the world. This activity was prompted by the inertial model attitude sensor response observed during high levels of model vibration while testing in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The inertial attitude sensor cannot distinguish between the gravitational acceleration and centrifugal accelerations associated with wind tunnel model system vibration, which results in a model attitude measurement bias error. Bias errors over an order of magnitude greater than the required device accuracy were found in the inertial model attitude measurements during dynamic testing of two model systems. Based on a theoretical modal approach, a method using measured vibration amplitudes and measured or calculated modal characteristics of the model system is developed to correct for dynamic bias errors in the model attitude measurements. The correction method is verified through dynamic response tests on two model systems and actual wind tunnel test data.

Buehrle, Ralph David↗

Dynamic response tests of inertial and optical wind-tunnel model attitude measurement devices

Results are presented for an experimental study of the response of inertial and optical wind-tunnel model attitude measurement systems in a wind-off simulated dynamic environment. This study is part of an ongoing activity at the NASA Langley Research Center to develop high accuracy, advanced model attitude measurement systems that can be used in a dynamic wind-tunnel environment. This activity was prompted by the inertial model attitude sensor response observed during high levels of model vibration which results in a model attitude measurement bias error. Significant bias errors in model attitude measurement were found for the measurement using the inertial device during wind-off dynamic testing of a model system. The amount of bias present during wind-tunnel tests will depend on the amplitudes of the model dynamic response and the modal characteristics of the model system. Correction models are presented that predict the vibration-induced bias errors to a high degree of accuracy for the vibration modes characterized in the simulated dynamic environment. The optical system results were uncorrupted by model vibration in the laboratory setup.

Buehrle, R. D.↗

Ice Surface Elevation Changes in East Antarctica from Satellite Altimetry

Estimates of the overall mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations in the surface mass balance are obtainable from time-series of ice surface elevations measured by satellite altimetry. Beginning in 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter and lidar mission will significantly improve the range accuracy, the orbit accuracy, and the spatial coverage for measurement of ice sheet elevations (to 86 S) , as compared to previous radar altimeters designed for ocean measurements The radar altimeters on Seasat and Geosat provided ice sheet measurements to 72 S, and on ERS-1 and ERS-2 to 81 S. Although radar altimetry has significant limitations in coverage (due to loss of tracking) and accuracy over sloping surfaces, information on ice-sheet surface-elevation changes has been derived for parts of Antarctica. Recently, the accuracy of the ice measurements by Seasat (3 months of 1978) and Geosat (1985 to 1989) have been improved by new calculations of the satellite orbit heights and other altimeter corrections. Residual orbit errors and inter-satellite biases are evaluated by crossover analysis and by global adjustments to an ocean surface derived from altimeter data. The standard deviation of the orbit error is less than 9 cm, and the long-term trend in the error appears to be less than 1 cm/yr. Orbit errors can be further reduced by adjustment to the ocean surface, but false signals of several cm/yr may be also introduced by the adjustments. These false signals are caused mainly by residual errors in the altimeter corrections over the ocean, and secondary by real changes in the ocean surface elevation. Maps of ice sheet elevation changes north of 72 S are derived from Seasat-Geosat crossovers and from 4.5 years of Geosat crossovers. A notable ice thinning rate of about 50 cm/yr is found at elevations below 2200 meters between 70 and 72 S to the East of the Amery ice shelf, in both the Seasat-Geosat and Geosat-Geosat time intervals Above 2200 meters, to the ridge around 95 E, the thinning is about 10 to 20 cm/yr. For the Seasat/Geosat interval, a thickening is noted on the area East of the ridge between about 95 E and 115 E. Preliminary results from analysis of ERS-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter data are also described.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder Updates for the Global Precipitation Measurement V07 Data Suite

Observations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F16, F17, F18, and F19 spacecrafts provide a significant portion of the microwave radiometer data within the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission constellation. In preparation for the GPM Version 7 (V07) data release, SSMIS corrections developed over a decade ago and incorporated in GPM Version 5 (V05) are reexamined and updated. The calibration updates presented here include pointing parameters affecting geolocation and viewing geometry, along-scan bias adjustments to account for scan edge falloffs, and sun angle corrections to account for heating anomalies including an emissive reflector. To address errors in the V05 geolocation, the sensor roll, pitch, yaw, half cone angle, and timing offsets are reanalyzed and updated. The along-scan bias adjustment is updated in a manner consistent with recent Special Sensor Microwave Imager updates to account for variations in scene temperature. Finally, significant improvements to the SSMIS sun angle correction are made by using data from the entire mission, extending the corrections to include the higher frequency channels, and deriving a more consistent channel-to-channel correction. From V05 to V07, the geolocation adjustment is approximately 5-10 km, the earth incidence angle difference is 0-0.4°, and the average brightness temperature change is 0-2 K, but individual pixels may be up to several Kelvin difference depending on sensor and channel. The result of these updates is a significant improvement in the quality and long-term consistency of the SSMIS data that are included in the GPM V07 dataset.

Rachael A Kroodsma↗

Galileo Earth-Venus trajectory correction maneuver design

As a result of delays in the Space Shuttle program and a re-evaluation of safety concerns which resulted in cancellation of the Shuttle Centaur Upper Stage program, the Galileo mission to Jupiter has undergone a substantial redesign effort. Use of the Inertial Upper Stage (IUS) for injection has necessitated a complicated Venus-Earth-Earth gravity assist trajectory in order to reach Jupiter. One flyby of Venus and two flybys of Earth are required to compensate for the lower injection energy available from the IUS. As the spacecraft was not originally designed for the environment within 1 AU of the Sun, modifications to the spacecraft and operating procedures have been developed. This paper describes some of these changes and how they have affected the design and implementation of trajectory correction maneuvers on the Earth-Venus leg of the mission. A strategy of biasing the IUS target at injection to control the statistical velocity distribution of a subsequent trajectory correction maneuver is discussed.

Wilson, M. G.↗

Innovative Liner Concepts: Experiments and Impedance Modeling of Liners Including the Effect of Bias Flow

The study of normal impedance of perforated plate acoustic liners including the effect of bias flow was studied. Two impedance models were developed by modeling the internal flows of perforate orifices as infinite tubes with the inclusion of end corrections to handle finite length effects. These models assumed incompressible and compressible flows, respectively, between the far field and the perforate orifice. The incompressible model was used to predict impedance results for perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 5% to 15%. The predicted resistance results showed better agreement with experiments for the higher percent open area samples. The agreement also tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. For perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 1% to 5%, the compressible model was used to predict impedance results. The model predictions were closer to the experimental resistance results for the 2% to 3% open area samples. The predictions tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. The reactance results were well predicted by the models for the higher percent open area, but deteriorated as the percent open area was lowered (5%) and bias flow was increased. A fit was done on the incompressible model to the experimental database. The fit was performed using an optimization routine that found the optimal set of multiplication coefficients to the non-dimensional groups that minimized the least squares slope error between predictions and experiments. The result of the fit indicated that terms not associated with bias flow required a greater degree of correction than the terms associated with the bias flow. This model improved agreement with experiments by nearly 15% for the low percent open area (5%) samples when compared to the unfitted model. The fitted model and the unfitted model performed equally well for the higher percent open area (10% and 15%).

Kelly, Jeff↗

Global ozone long-term trends from satellite measurements and the response to solar activity variations

Analysis of global ozone variations for the period April 1970 to December 1975 was performed by using the reprocessed Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measurements of total ozone. A correlation coefficient of 0.97 is found between the 6-month running mean of global mean total ozone (filtered for mean semiannual, annual, and quasibiennial variations) and the 10.7-cm solar activity index. Correcting ozone for a time-dependent latitudinal bias relative to Dobson ozone measurements reduces to 2-3% the global mean ozone variation over the solar cycle. The solar ultraviolet variability required in a one-dimensional time-dependent radiative photochemical model to account for the observed ozone variation appears to be consistent with recent solar UV observations.

Keating, G. M.↗

Computer simulation of plasma electron collection by PIX-II

A wake model was defined for the NASCAP/LEO finite element model for the plasma interaction experiment (PIX-II) launched to study the interaction between high-voltage large solar arrays with the space plasma environment. The cell surface model considers the individual cells, distances between interconnects, and the fraction of surface covered by interconnects. Account is taken of the electrostatic potential around the spacecraft, which travels at 7500 mps, over five times the speed of thermal ions. Ram ions are produced ahead of the array and the wake ion density is described with a geometric shadowing model. The model correctly predicted the currents in high and low bias voltages when compared to orbital data. The panel snapover, however, was projected to occur at 100 V and instead occurred at 300 V, which indicates that the snapover state is bistable. Finally, a low potential was both predicted and measured in the wake.

Mandell, M. J.↗

Development of intuitive theories of motion - Curvilinear motion in the absence of external forces

College students and children between the ages of 4 and 12 were asked to draw the path a ball would take upon exiting a curved tube. As in previous studies, many subjects erroneously predicted curvilinear paths. However, a clear U-shaped curve was evident in the data: Preschoolers and kindergartners performed as well as college students, whereas school-aged children were more likely to make erroneous predictions. A second study suggested that the youngest children's correct responses could not be attributed to response biases or drawing abilities. This developmental trend is interpreted to mean that the school-aged children are developing intuitive theories of motion that include erroneous principles. The results are related to the 'growth errors' found in other cognitive domains and to the historical development of formal theories of motion.

Kaiser, M. K.↗

Modeling fault diagnosis as the activation and use of a frame system

Twenty pilots with instrument flight ratings were asked to perform a fault-diagnosis task for which they had relevant domain knowledge. The pilots were asked to think out loud as they requested and interpreted information. Performances were then modeled as the activation and use of a frame system. Cognitive biases, memory distortions and losses, and failures to correctly diagnose the problem were studied in the context of this frame system model.

Smith, Philip J.↗

Flight test results of a vector-based failure detection and isolation algorithm for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit

Flight test results of a vector-based fault-tolerant algorithm for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit are presented. Because the inertial sensors provide flight-critical information for flight control and navigation, failure detection and isolation is developed in terms of a multi-level structure. Threshold compensation techniques for gyros and accelerometers, developed to enhance the sensitivity of the failure detection process to low-level failures, are presented. Four flight tests, conducted in a commercial transport type environment, were used to determine the ability of the failure detection and isolation algorithm to detect failure signals, such a hard-over, null, or bias shifts. The algorithm provided timely detection and correct isolation of flight control- and low-level failures. The flight tests of the vector-based algorithm demonstrated its capability to provide false alarm free dual fail-operational performance for the skewed array of inertial sensors.

Morrell, F. R.↗

Real-Time Attitude Independent Three Axis Magnetometer Calibration

In this paper new real-time approaches for three-axis magnetometer sensor calibration are derived. These approaches rely on a conversion of the magnetometer-body and geomagnetic-reference vectors into an attitude independent observation by using scalar checking. The goal of the full calibration problem involves the determination of the magnetometer bias vector, scale factors and non-orthogonality corrections. Although the actual solution to this full calibration problem involves the minimization of a quartic loss function, the problem can be converted into a quadratic loss function by a centering approximation. This leads to a simple batch linear least squares solution. In this paper we develop alternative real-time algorithms based on both the extended Kalman filter and Unscented filter. With these real-time algorithms, a full magnetometer calibration can now be performed on-orbit during typical spacecraft mission-mode operations. Simulation results indicate that both algorithms provide accurate integer resolution in real time, but the Unscented filter is more robust to large initial condition errors than the extended Kalman filter. The algorithms are also tested using actual data from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE).

Crassidis, John L.↗

CATS Aerosol Typing and Future Directions

The Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS), launched in January of 2015, is a lidar remote sensing instrument that will provide range-resolved profile measurements of atmospheric aerosols and clouds from the International Space Station (ISS). CATS is intended to operate on-orbit for at least six months, and up to three years. Status of CATS Level 2 and Plans for the Future:Version. 1. Aerosol Typing (ongoing): Mode 1: L1B data released later this summer; L2 data released shortly after; Identify algorithm biases (ex. striping, FOV (field of view) biases). Mode 2: Processed Released Currently working on correcting algorithm issues. Version 2 Aerosol Typing (Fall, 2016): Implementation of version 1 modifications Integrate GEOS-5 aerosols for typing guidance for non spherical aerosols. Version 3 Aerosol Typing (2017): Implementation of 1-D Var Assimilation into GEOS-5 Dynamic lidar ratio that will evolve in conjunction with simulated aerosol mixtures.

McGill, Matt↗

NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar Measurements of Water Vapor and Cirrus Clouds during WVIOP2000 and AFWEX

The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was deployed to the Southern Great Plains CART site from September - December, 2000 and participated in two field campaigns devoted to comparisons of various water vapor measurement technologies and calibrations. These campaigns were the Water Vapor Intensive Operations Period 2000 (WVIOP2000) and the ARM FIRE Water Vapor Experiment (AFWEX). WVIOP2000 was devoted to validating water vapor measurements in the lower atmosphere while AFWEX had similar goals but for measurements in the upper troposphere. The SRL was significantly upgraded both optically and electronically prior to these field campaigns. These upgrades enabled the SRL to demonstrate the highest resolution lidar measurements of water vapor ever acquired during the nighttime and the highest S/N Raman lidar measurements of water vapor in the daytime; more than a factor of 2 increase in S/N versus the DOE CARL Raman Lidar. Examples of these new measurement capabilities along with comparisons of SRL and CARL, LASE, MPI-DIAL, in-situ sensors, radiosonde, and others will be presented. The profile comparisons of the SRL and CARL have revealed what appears to be an overlap correction or countrate correction problem in CARL. This may be involved in an overall dry bias in the precipitable water calibration of CARL with respect to the MWR of approx. 4%. Preliminary analysis indicates that the application of a temperature dependent correction to the narrowband Raman lidar measurements of water vapor improves the lidar/Vaisala radiosonde comparisons of upper tropospheric water vapor. Other results including the comparison of the first-ever simultaneous measurements from four water vapor lidar systems, a bore-wave event captured at high resolution by the SRL and cirrus cloud optical depth studies using the SRL and CARL will be presented at the meeting.

Whiteman, D. N.↗