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At least 379 records · Page 21

Human Factors and Technologies Design to Improve User Acceptance of Pooled Rideshare for Increasing Transportation System Energy Efficiency

This multi-year project delivered a comprehensive, human-factors-driven framework to understand, model, and improve pooled rideshare (PR) adoption in the United States. Through three large-scale national survey studies involving more than 16,000 participants across multiple cities and demographic groups, the research established one of the most extensive datasets to date on user perceptions, behavioral barriers, and service expectations related to pooled rideshare. These data revealed key human factors barriers of user acceptance of PR and suggested potential actionable experience optimizations that could lead to increased PR usage. This foundational knowledge guided the development of novel human-factors models and behavioral choice models that quantify how psychological, demographic, and trip-level factors influence willingness to pool. Building on these empirical insights, the project developed advanced behavioral modeling tools, including mixed logit and integrated choice and latent variable models, to capture both observable and latent influences on PR adoption. These models significantly improved the ability to predict riders’ acceptance of pooled trips, explaining choice heterogeneity through latent constructs such as safety, service experience, privacy concerns, time sensitivity, and environmental attitudes. Together, these models provide a robust analytical foundation for designing PR systems that more effectively meet user needs. The project translated human-factors insights and behavioral models into actionable technology innovations by extending POLARIS—an agent-based, activity-based travel simulation platform—into a fully functional pooled rideshare simulation environment. New PR modules, acceptance models, and regional scenarios were implemented for Greenville, SC and Austin, TX, enabling high-fidelity validation of algorithmic strategies under realistic demand and traffic conditions. The simulation platform supported the development and evaluation of adaptive discount-based assignment algorithms, enhanced willingness-to-pay formulations, demographic-aware incentive mechanisms, and a proactive joint assignment and repositioning strategy. Simulation results demonstrated substantial gains in pooling uptake, average vehicle occupancy, energy efficiency, and fleet profitability. In Greenville, pooling adoption more than doubled, while reductions in vehicle-miles traveled and energy consumption were significant. In Austin, pooling improvements were achieved with minimal service-quality trade-offs, and profitability increased across all fleet sizes. Through this research, we developed a comprehensive understanding of the human factors barriers that limit user acceptance of pooled rideshare services. These insights enabled the design of human-factors-aware pooled rideshare technologies that more effectively address user concerns and improve adoption rates. By integrating these models into an advanced agent-based simulation framework, we demonstrated that higher adoption of pooled rideshare can lead to measurable improvements in energy efficiency and system performance. Together, these contributions establish a validated pathway from human-centered analysis to technology development and energy-saving outcomes, supporting national goals for more sustainable and efficient mobility systems.

Jia, Yunyi↗

<i>Finite Element Modeling of Biomass Hopper Flow</i>

The hopper is one of the widely used biomass handling devices that channels the bulk biomass from storage to the subsequent handling systems. Although Jenike's approach has been successfully used for hoppers handling grains and other agricultural produces for decades, designing a hopper, ensuring reliable biomass handling is found to be challenging. This study aims to address this engineering problem with alternative constitutive material models concerning the flow behavior of bulk solids. Finite element modeling is an approach that allows for implementing different material models. Underlying constitutive theories of different material models assist in investigating the mechanical behavior of a particulate system, including the flow characteristics of ground biomass. This study demonstrates hopper flow models of two types of biomass, i.e., ground corn stover and Douglas fir, with the Mohr-Coulomb model, which is based on Jenike's approach, modified Cam-Clay model, and Drucker-Prager/Cap model. The modeling results are compared with hopper flow experiments to highlights the advantages and shortfalls of each constitutive biomass flow model.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Linear Time-Invariant Models of a Large Cumulus Ensemble

Abstract Methods in system identification are used to obtain linear time-invariant state-space models that describe how horizontal averages of temperature and humidity of a large cumulus ensemble evolve with time under small forcing. The cumulus ensemble studied here is simulated with cloud-system-resolving models in radiative–convective equilibrium. The identified models extend steady-state linear response functions used in past studies and provide accurate descriptions of the transfer function, the noise model, and the behavior of cumulus convection when coupled with two-dimensional gravity waves. A novel procedure is developed to convert the state-space models into an interpretable form, which is used to elucidate and quantify memory in cumulus convection. The linear problem studied here serves as a useful reference point for more general efforts to obtain data-driven and interpretable parameterizations of cumulus convection.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Numerical and experimental evaluation of mechanical performance of the multifunctional energy storage composites

This work presents numerical simulation methods to model the mechanical behavior of the multifunctional energy storage composites (MESCs), which consist of a stack of multiple thin battery layers reinforced with through-the-hole polymer rivets and embedded inside carbon fiber composite laminates. MESC has been demonstrated through earlier experiments on its exceptional behavior as a structural element as well as a battery. However, the inherent complex infrastructure of the MESC design has created significant challenges in simulation and modeling. A novel homogenization technique was adopted to characterize the multi-layer properties of battery material using physics-based constitutive equations combined with nonlinear deformation theories to handle the interface between the battery layers. Second, mechanical damage and failure modes among battery materials, polymer reinforcements, and carbon fiber-polymer interfaces were characterized through appropriate models and experiments. The model of MESCs has been implemented in a commercial finite element code in ABAQUS. A comparison of structural response and failure modes from numerical simulations and experimental tests are presented. The results of the study showed that the predictions of elastic and damage responses of MESCs at various loading conditions agreed well with the experimental data. © 2021

Materials Science↗

Pseudo-viscous modeling of transport in dense granular flows for thermal energy storage applications

Dense, granular flows were examined to effectively capture and model bulk viscous properties in thin packed beds. A modified Couette cell with particle image velocimetry was used to experimentally determine pseudo-viscosity properties of four particulate media with varying morphologies: (1) iron oxide-coated SiO 2 particles, (2) CARBOBEAD CP30-60 particles, (3) CARBOBEAD CP40-100 particles, and (4) Al 2 O 3 beads. The pseudo-viscosity functions were fitted using a power law to correlate the measured shear stress as a function of measured shear rate. The pseudo-viscous functions were used as inputs to computation fluid dynamics models for a single-phase viscous fluid to predict granular flow profiles. Steady-state free surface velocity profiles at angular velocities <7 rad/s predicted by the model were in good agreement with the experimental particle image velocimetry measurements, resulting in Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.97 for iron-oxide coated SiO 2 particles and 0.95 for CP30-60 particles. As a result, this alternative approach to measuring pseudo-viscous properties under shearing and modeling bulk transport behavior of granular flow using computation fluid dynamics model offered significant reduction in computational load compared to discrete element methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Simulations of ENSO Phase-locking in CMIP5 and CMIP6

The characteristics of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking in observations and CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are examined in this study. Two metrics based on the peaking month histogram for all El Niño and La Niña events are adopted to delineate the basic features of ENSO phase-locking in terms of the preferred calendar month and strength of this preference. It turns out that most models are poor at simulating the ENSO phase-locking, either showing little peak strengths or peaking at the wrong seasons. By deriving ENSO’s linear dynamics based on the conceptual recharge oscillator (RO) framework through the seasonal linear inverse model (sLIM) approach, various simulated phase-locking behaviors of CMIP models are systematically investigated in comparison with observations. In observations, phase-locking is mainly attributed to the seasonal modulation of ENSO’s SST growth rate. In contrast, in a significant portion of CMIP models, phase-locking is co-determined by the seasonal modulations of both SST growth and phase-transition rates. Further study of the joint effects of SST growth and phase-transition rates suggests that for simulating realistic winter peak ENSO phase-locking with the right dynamics, climate models need to have four key factors in the right combination: (1) correct phase of SST growth rate modulation peaking at the fall; (2) large enough amplitude for the annual cycle in growth rate; (3) amplitude of semi-annual cycle in growth rate needs to be small; and (4) amplitude of seasonal modulation in SST phase-transition rate needs to be small.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A semi-supervised learning method to produce explainable radioisotope proportion estimates for NaI-based synthetic and measured gamma spectra

Quantifying the radioactive sources present in gamma spectra is an ever-present and growing national security mission and a time-consuming process for human analysts. While machine learning models exist that are trained to estimate radioisotope proportions in gamma spectra, few address the eventual need to provide explanatory outputs beyond the estimation task. In this work, we develop two machine learning models for a NaI detector measurements: one to perform the estimation task, and the other to characterize the first model’s ability to provide reasonable estimates. To ensure the first model exhibits a behavior that can be characterized by the second model, the first model is trained using a custom, semi-supervised loss function which constrains proportion estimates to be explainable in terms of a spectral reconstruction. The second auxiliary model is an out-of-distribution detection function (a type of meta-model) leveraging the proportion estimates of the first model to identify when a spectrum is sufficiently unique from the training domain and thus is out-of-scope for the model. In demonstrating the efficacy of this approach, we encourage the use of meta-models to better explain ML outputs used in radiation detection and increase trust.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

CIGS Technology Advancement via Fundamental Modeling of Defect/Impurity Interactions (Final Technical Report)

The primary goals of the proposed work were to provide modeling tools (and the associated insight which comes along with model development) for design and optimization of CuIn x Ga 1-x Se 2 (CIGS) and CdSeTe (CST) solar cell manufacturing processes and to establish the foundation for comprehensive end-to-end predictive modeling tools to enable optimization of thin film photovoltaic technology for performance, cost, yield, and reliability. The initial focus of efforts within this project was to develop coupled process/optical/device models for CIGS PV technology and to work with Siva Power to apply that TCAD (technology computer-aided design) system to improve the efficiency and reduce manufacturing costs for CIGS solar cells. Our approach to that end was to generate an extensive database of DFT calculations and to use those calculations via statistical thermodynamics methods and Monte Carlo simulation to develop and characterize models for the behavior of native defects as well as intentional and unintentional impurities, including the redistribution of the primary components of CIGS films. Increased effort went toward coupling those models for defect behavior and composition evolution to the performance of multicrystalline CIGS solar cells via prediction of doping level and recombination lifetime as function of manufacturing process. In the second budget period, the project pivoted to developing a similar system for the CdSeTe system, focused especially on understanding the role of Se/Te alloy concentration. Execution of the project resulted in the successful development of TCAD systems for both CIGS and CdSeTe thin film PV within the Synopsys Sentaurus framework by utilizing the Alagator interface. In the first budget period of the project, we developed quantitative models for the major components of CIGS PV and implemented them within a framework that couples process, optical, and device simulation. From the insights we have gained, we identified novel opportunities for enhancing CIGS solar cell performance and have laid the groundwork to further optimize the layer structure, composition profile, and thermal cycles for substantially improved efficiency and lower manufacturing costs. For the CIGS system, process changes to achieve greater than 1% absolute enhancement in efficiency were identified, but testing of those approaches was stymied by lack of a domestic CIGS manufacturing partner after the closure of Siva Power as well as Miasole. For CdSeTe, a fully capable TCAD system only became ready to apply near the end of the project period, so substantial opportunities remain to apply those models to enhance the leading thin film PV technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Local correlation-based transition models for high-Reynolds-number wind-turbine airfoils

Abstract. Modern wind-turbine airfoil design requires robust performance predictions for varying thicknesses, shapes, and appropriate Reynolds numbers. The airfoils of current large offshore wind turbines operate with chord-based Reynolds numbers in the range of 3–15 million. Turbulence transition in the airfoil boundary layer is known to play an important role in the aerodynamics of these airfoils near the design operating point. While the lack of prediction of lift stall through Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is well known, airfoil design using CFD requires the accurate prediction of the glide ratio (L/D) in the linear portion of the lift polar. The prediction of the drag bucket and the glide ratio is greatly affected by the choice of the transition model in RANS CFD of airfoils. We present the performance of two existing local correlation-based transition models – one-equation model (γ− SA) and two-equation model (γ-Reθt‾- SA) coupled with the Spalart–Allmaras (SA) RANS turbulence model – for offshore wind-turbine airfoils operating at a high Reynolds number. We compare the predictions of the two transition models with available experimental and CFD data in the literature in the Reynolds number range of 3–15 million including the AVATAR project measurements of the DU00-W-212 airfoil. Both transition models predict a larger L/D compared to fully turbulent results at all Reynolds numbers. The two models exhibit similar behavior at Reynolds numbers around 3 million. However, at higher Reynolds numbers, the one-equation model fails to predict the natural transition behavior due to early transition onset. The two-equation transition model predicts the aerodynamic coefficients for airfoils of various thickness at higher Reynolds numbers up to 15 million more accurately compared to the one-equation model. As a result, the two-equation model predictions are more comparable to the predictions from eN transition model. However, a limitation of this model is observed at very high Reynolds numbers of around 12–15 million where the predictions are very sensitive to the inflow turbulent intensity. The combination of the two-equation transition model coupled with the Spalart–Allmaras (SA) RANS turbulence model is a good method for performance prediction of modern wind-turbine airfoils using CFD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A quantitative model for a nanoscale switch accurately predicts thermal actuation behavior

Manipulation of temperature can be used to actuate DNA origami nano-hinges containing gold nanoparticles. We develop a physical model of this system that uses partition function analysis of the interaction between the nano-hinge and nanoparticle to predict the probability that the nano-hinge is open at a given temperature. The model agrees well with experimental data and predicts experimental conditions that allow the actuation temperature of the nano-hinge to be tuned over a range of temperatures from 30 °C to 45 °C. Additionally, the model identifies microscopic interactions that are important to the macroscopic behavior of the system, revealing surprising features of the system. This combination of physical insight and predictive potential is likely to inform future designs that integrate nanoparticles into dynamic DNA origami structures or use strand binding interactions to control dynamic DNA origami behavior. Furthermore, our modeling approach could be expanded to consider the incorporation, stability, and actuation of other types of functional elements or actuation mechanisms integrated into nucleic acid devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Adversarial Ensemble Modeling of Multi-modal Mechanical Properties for Iron-Based Alloys

Mechanical properties of alloys are controlled by their microstructure; and microstructure evolution is controlled by internal and external stressors. Chemical complexity during the alloy processing may result in heterogeneity and observation of multimodal performance patterns. Thus, to ensure the desired performance of stressed components it is important to understand the origin and mechanisms of such behavior. Adversarial ensemble modeling was introduced here to explain multimodal mechanical properties of the iron-based alloys. The modeling results showed that the areas of a single mechanism predominance were contiguous across the alloy compositions clustered by similarity, with sharp and persistent boundaries separating the single-mechanism domains. The marginal compositions resulted in increased competition between the adversarial models but only led to the multimodal behavior when the competing models diverged. Transparency of the clustering method allowed explicit interpretation of the chemistries leading to such competition. The adversarial ensemble was interpreted through transition from ductile to brittle microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗

Modeling Autonomous Vehicle-Targeted Aggressive Merging Behaviors in Mixed Traffic Environment

Promising advances in Autonomous Vehicle (AV) technology have fueled industry and research fields to dedicate significant effort to the study of the integration of AVs into the traffic network. This study focuses on the transition phase between all Human Driven Vehicles (HDVs) in the network to all AVs, where these different vehicle types coexist in a mixed traffic environment. This paper investigates the potential impacts of aggressive merging behaviors by human drivers on traffic performance in a mixed environment. For this, three vehicle types – AVs, HDVs, and Aggressive HDVs (AHDVs) – are modeled in an open-source microscopic traffic simulation model, SUMO. In the developed simulation, the AHDVs are modeled to emulate aggressive merging behaviors in front of AVs at a merge section of a freeway exit ramp. Several experiments are used to study the impact of such behavior. Results show travel time gains by AHDVs at the expense of AVs and HDVs.

Bae, JongIn↗

Feedback-Based Fault-Tolerant and Health-Adaptive Optimal Charging of Batteries

The key technology barriers that hinder the growth of Electric Vehicles (EVs) are long charging time, the shorter life-time of EV batteries, and battery safety. Specifically, EV charging protocols have significant effects on battery lifetime and safety. If not charged properly, the battery could end up with shorter life, and more importantly, improper charging can cause battery faults leading to catastrophic failures. To overcome these barriers, we propose a closed-loop feedback based approach, that enables real-time optimal fast charging protocol adaptation to battery health and possess active diagnostic capabilities in the sense that, during charging, it detects real-time faults and takes corrective action to mitigate such fault effects. We utilize battery electrical-thermal model, explicit battery capacity and power fade aging models, and thermal fault model to capture battery behavior. In conjunction with the models, we adopt linear quadratic optimal control techniques to realize the feedback-based control algorithm. Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

batteries↗

Reactive burn model calibration using high-throughput initiation experiments at sub-millimeter length scales

We report a first-of-its-kind model calibration was performed using Sandia National Laboratories’ high-throughput initiation (HTI) experiment for two types of vapor-deposited explosive films consisting of hexanitrostilbene (HNS) or pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). These films exhibit prompt initiation, and they reach steady detonation at sub-millimeter length scales. Following prior work on HNS, we test the hypothesis of approximating these explosive films as fine-grained homogeneous solids with simple Arrhenius kinetics burn models. The model calibration process is described herein using a single-step as well as a two-step Arrhenius rate law, and it consists of systematic parameter sampling leading to a reduction in the model degrees of freedom. Multiple local minima are observed; results are given for seven different optimized parameter sets. Each model set is further evaluated in a two-dimensional simulation of the critical failure thickness for a sustained detonation. Overall, the two-step Arrhenius kinetics model captures the observed behavior for HNS; however, neither model produces a good fit to the PETN data. We hypothesize that the HTI results for PETN correspond to a heterogeneous response, owing to the smaller reaction zone of PETN compared to HNS (i.e., it does not homogenize the fine-grained hot spots as well). Future work should consider using the ignition and growth model for PETN, as well as other reactive burn models such as xHVRB, AWSD, PiSURF, and CREST.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Novel Approach to PV Inverter Modeling and Simulation Leveraging Experiments, Learning Based Modeling and Co-Simulation

Photovoltaic (PV) inverter manufacturers use custom, proprietary control approaches and topologies in their inverter design. The proprietary nature of these approaches makes it challenging to share electromagnetic transients (EMT) domain models for system studies. This research work presents an approach to develop EMT models from experimental data. We use novel approach in experimental design, high fidelity data collection, use of learning-based modeling, and co-simulation to reduce the time taken to develop an EMT model for an inverter under test (IUT). We used a 20 kW off-the-shelf grid following PV inverter and subjected the inverter to controlled tests. The tests include voltage and frequency step changes, as well as solar irradiance variations. The recorded high frequency data were used to train a neural network model representing the dynamic behavior of the IUT. The model was subsequently imported into an EMT tool using co-simulation techniques, and thus completing the modeling effort.

black box inverter modeling↗

Estimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model

Neisseria gonorrhoeae cross-protection was suggested in a New Zealand meningitis B vaccine. We modeled the potential impact of similar vaccines on gonorrhea prevalence in heterosexuals in the United States. Here, our mathematical model incorporated infection, behavior, and vaccination dynamics. Approximate Bayesian Computation calibrated our model to US prevalence. Primary analyses assumed New Zealand vaccine characteristics: 30% efficacy and 2-year duration of protection. We estimated impact under two vaccine coverages (20%, 50%). Reduction in gonorrhea prevalence ranged from 4.8 to 39.4%, depending on vaccine coverage. Vaccine impact was correlated with both size of the highly sexually active subpopulation and sexual mixing between high and low activity subpopulations. A meningitis vaccine providing low efficacy cross-protection against gonorrhea acquisition and short duration of protection could result in a large reduction in gonorrhea prevalence in the United States. Potential dual protective effects can be considered when making vaccine recommendations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗