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At least 379 records · Page 21

New Directions in Tropical Phenology

Earth’s most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a ‘temperate phenological paradigm’ expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical – and temperate – phenology.

tropical phenology↗

Inelastic scattering in atom-diatomic molecule collisions. I - Rotational transitions in the sudden approximation

The impact parameter method and the sudden approximation are applied to determine the total probability of inelastic rotational transitions arising from a collision of an atom and a homonuclear diatomic molecule at large impact parameters. An analytical approximation to this probability is found for conditions where the electron exchange or overlap forces dominate the scattering. An approximate upper bound to the range of impact parameters for which rotational scattering can be important is determined. In addition, an estimate of the total inelastic cross section is found at conditions for which a statistical model describes the scattering well. The results of this analysis are applied to Ar-O2 collisions and may be readily applied to other combinations of atoms and molecules.

Stallcop, J. R.↗

The Effect of Scale Dependent Discretization on the Progressive Failure of Composite Materials Using Multiscale Analyses

A multiscale modeling methodology, which incorporates a statistical distribution of fiber strengths into coupled micromechanics/ finite element analyses, is applied to unidirectional polymer matrix composites (PMCs) to analyze the effect of mesh discretization both at the micro- and macroscales on the predicted ultimate tensile (UTS) strength and failure behavior. The NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver were used to analyze the progressive failure of a PMC tensile specimen that initiates at the repeating unit cell (RUC) level. Three different finite element mesh densities were employed and each coupled with an appropriate RUC. Multiple simulations were performed in order to assess the effect of a statistical distribution of fiber strengths on the bulk composite failure and predicted strength. The coupled effects of both the micro- and macroscale discretizations were found to have a noticeable effect on the predicted UTS and computational efficiency of the simulations.

Ricks, Trenton M.↗

Multivariate normality

Sets of experimentally determined or routinely observed data provide information about the past, present and, hopefully, future sets of similarly produced data. An infinite set of statistical models exists which may be used to describe the data sets. The normal distribution is one model. If it serves at all, it serves well. If a data set, or a transformation of the set, representative of a larger population can be described by the normal distribution, then valid statistical inferences can be drawn. There are several tests which may be applied to a data set to determine whether the univariate normal model adequately describes the set. The chi-square test based on Pearson's work in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries is often used. Like all tests, it has some weaknesses which are discussed in elementary texts. Extension of the chi-square test to the multivariate normal model is provided. Tables and graphs permit easier application of the test in the higher dimensions. Several examples, using recorded data, illustrate the procedures. Tests of maximum absolute differences, mean sum of squares of residuals, runs and changes of sign are included in these tests. Dimensions one through five with selected sample sizes 11 to 101 are used to illustrate the statistical tests developed.

Crutcher, H. L.↗

Contingency in visual scanning of cockpit traffic displays

A statistical method to identify reliable, repetitive scanning patterns in the positions of visual fixations has been developed and applied to data from 8 airline pilots who monitored cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI). Their fixational transition patterns between points of interest on the display showed deterministic, statistical dependencies generally associated with symbols predicting future aircraft position. These dependencies constitute deviations from stratified random sampling of the visual information on the display, confirm the importance of future aircraft position information for the use of CDTI, and provide objective support for the existence of 'scanpaths' in visual fixation patterns.

Ellis, S. R.↗

Computer program to minimize prediction error in models from experiments with 16 hypercube points and 0 to 6 center points

A previous report described a backward deletion procedure of model selection that was optimized for minimum prediction error and which used a multiparameter combination of the F - distribution and an order statistics distribution of Cochran's. A computer program is described that applies the previously optimized procedure to real data. The use of the program is illustrated by examples.

Holms, A. G.↗

Methodology for predictive testing of fuel cells

A perturbation testing method has been developed and tested for predictive testing of fuel cells. This method involves application of small changes to the operating conditions of the cell in a predetermined sequence. The resultant response of the cell is then measured and statistically correlated with the corresponding test conditions. This method has been applied to the phosphoric acid fuel cell, and the effect of operating and cell-component variables on cell-performance degradation has been studied. A strong effect of the cell temperature and cathode potential on fuel-cell-performance degradation has been observed. A cell-performance degradation model has been formulated, and the unknown parameters in the model have been estimated by a regression analysis of the experimental data. A reasonable agreement between the fuel cell performance predicted by this model (derived from the perturbation experiments) and the unperturbed test data supports fthe applicability of the perturbation method.

Patel, D. N.↗

Coupled stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to short-term changes in solar ultraviolet flux - An analysis of Nimbus 7 SBUV and SAMS data

Earlier studies of solar-induced variations in stratospheric parameters have been mainly concerned with observed ozone responses. In the present investigation, attention is given to temperature responses as well as ozone responses at low latitudes, taking into account 22 months of Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone and stratospheric and mesospheric sounder temperature data. A data description is provided, and cross-correlation and regression analyses are conducted. An extension is considered of an analytic model, which was derived by Frederick (1981) for the coupled behavior of ozone and temperature perturbations in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. The extended model is applied to the results of the analyses. The obtained data provide statistical evidence for ozone and temperature responses to changes in solar ultraviolet flux on the time scale of the solar rotation period.

Hood, L. L.↗

Stochastic estimation of coherent structures in turbulent boundary layers

The stochastic estimation provides a means of estimating conditional averages from unconditional statistics, namely, the two-point correlation tensor. This technique is applied to three-dimensional data obtained in a fully turbulent boundary layer. The results of linear and nonlinear estimates are compared to the corresponding conditional averages and the agreement is found to be excellent, with little improvement for nonlinear estimates. Extensions of the technique to space-time estimates of one- and two-point conditional averages are also presented, the latter providing a means to examine structures associated with a given length scale.

Guezennec, Y. G.↗

Monitoring Forest Regrowth Using a Multi-Platform Time Series

Over the past 50 years, the forests of western Washington and Oregon have been extensively harvested for timber. This has resulted in a heterogeneous mosaic of remaining mature forests, clear-cuts, new plantations, and second-growth stands that now occur in areas that formerly were dominated by extensive old-growth forests and younger forests resulting from fire disturbance. Traditionally, determination of seral stage and stand condition have been made using aerial photography and spot field observations, a methodology that is not only time- and resource-intensive, but falls short of providing current information on a regional scale. These limitations may be solved, in part, through the use of multispectral images which can cover large areas at spatial resolutions in the order of tens of meters. The use of multiple images comprising a time series potentially can be used to monitor land use (e.g. cutting and replanting), and to observe natural processes such as regeneration, maturation and phenologic change. These processes are more likely to be spectrally observed in a time series composed of images taken during different seasons over a long period of time. Therefore, for many areas, it may be necessary to use a variety of images taken with different imaging systems. A common framework for interpretation is needed that reduces topographic, atmospheric, instrumental, effects as well as differences in lighting geometry between images. The present state of remote-sensing technology in general use does not realize the full potential of the multispectral data in areas of high topographic relief. For example, the primary method for analyzing images of forested landscapes in the Northwest has been with statistical classifiers (e.g. parallelepiped, nearest-neighbor, maximum likelihood, etc.), often applied to uncalibrated multispectral data. Although this approach has produced useful information from individual images in some areas, landcover classes defined by these techniques typically are not consistent for the same scene imaged under different illumination conditions, especially in the mountainous regions. In addition, it is difficult to correct for atmospheric and instrumental differences between multiple scenes in a time series. In this paper, we present an approach for monitoring forest cutting/regrowth in a semi-mountainous portion of the southern Gifford Pinchot National Forest using a multisensor-time series composed of MSS, TM, and AVIRIS images.

Sabol, Donald E., Jr.↗

Turbulence Climatology at Dallas/Ft.Worth (DFW) Airport: Implications for a Departure Wake Vortex Spacing System

Potential adaptive wake vortex spacing systems may need to rely on wake vortex decay rather than wake vortex transport in reducing wake separations. A wake vortex takeoff-spacing system in particular will need to rely on wake decay. Ambient turbulence is the primary influence on wake decay away from the ground. This study evaluated 18 months of ambient turbulence measurements at Dallas/Ft. Worth (DFW) Airport. The measurements show minor variation in the turbulence levels at various times of the year or times of the day for time periods when a departure system could be used. Arrival system operation was also examined, and a slightly lower overall turbulence level was found as compared to departure system benefit periods. The Sarpkaya model, a validated model of wake vortex behavior, was applied to various turbulence levels and compared to the DFW turbulence statistics. The results show that wake vortices from heavy aircraft on takeoff should dissipate within one minute for the majority of the time and will rarely last two minutes. These results will need to be verified by wake vortex measurements on departure.

Perras, G. H.↗

A Gravity-Responsive Time-Keeping Protein of the Plant and Animal Cell Surface

The hypothesis under investigation was that a ubiquinol (NADH) oxidase protein of the cell surface with protein disulfide-thiol interchange activity (= NOX protein) is a plant and animal time-keeping ultradian (period of less than 24 h) driver of both cell enlargement and the biological clock that responds to gravity. Despite considerable work in a large number of laboratories spanning several decades, this is, to my knowledge, our work is the first demonstration of a time-keeping biochemical reaction that is both gravity-responsive and growth-related and that has been shown to determine circadian periodicity. As such, the NOX protein may represent both the long-sought biological gravity receptor and the core oscillator of the cellular biological clock. Completed studies have resulted in 12 publications and two issued NASA-owned patents of the clock activity. The gravity response and autoentrainment were characterized in cultured mammalian cells and in two plant systems together with entrainment by light and small molecules (melatonin). The molecular basis of the oscillatory behavior was investigated using spectroscopic methods (Fourier transform infrared and circular dichroism) and high resolution electron microscopy. We have also applied these findings to an understanding of the response to hypergravity. Statistical methods for analysis of time series phenomena were developed (Foster et al., 2003).

Morre, D. James↗

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗

Aerosol climatology using a tunable spectral variability cloud screening of AERONET data

Can cloud screening of an aerosol data set, affect the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) climatology? Aerosols, humidity and clouds are correlated. Therefore, rigorous cloud screening can systematically bias towards less cloudy conditions, underestimating the average AOT. Here, using AERONET data we show that systematic rejection of variable atmospheric optical conditions can generate such bias in the average AOT. Therefore we recommend (1) to introduce more powerful spectral variability cloud screening and (2) to change the philosophy behind present aerosol climatologies: Instead of systematically rejecting all cloud contaminations, we suggest to intentionally allow the presence of cloud contamination, estimate the statistical impact of the contamination and correct for it. The analysis, applied to 10 AERONET stations with approx. 4 years of data, shows almost no change for Rome (Italy), but up to a change in AOT of 0.12 in Beijing (PRC). Similar technique may be explored for satellite analysis, e.g. MODIS.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 12, No. 1

Topics discussed include: a) Data Mining Methods Applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance Data: A Comparison to Standard Statistical Methods; b) Financial Comparisons across Different Business Models in the Canadian Airline Industry; c) Carving a Niche for the "No-Frills" Carrier, Air Arabia, in Oil-Rich Skies; d) Situational Leadership in Air Traffic Control; and e) The Very Light Jet Arrives: Stakeholders and Their Perceptions.

Bowers, Brent D.↗

Characterization of bioelectric potentials

Method and system for recognizing and characterizing bioelectric potential or electromyographic (EMG) signals associated with at least one of a coarse gesture and a fine gesture that is performed by a person, and use of the bioelectric potentials to enter data and/or commands into an electrical and/or mechanical instrument. As a gesture is performed, bioelectric signals that accompany the gesture are subjected to statistical averaging, within selected time intervals. Hidden Markov model analysis is applied to identify hidden, gesture-related states that are present. A metric is used to compare signals produced by a volitional gesture (not yet identified) with corresponding signals associated with each of a set of reference gestures, and the reference gesture that is closest to the volitional gesture is identified. Signals representing the volitional gesture are analyzed and compared with a database of reference gestures to determine if the volitional gesture is likely to be one of the reference gestures. Electronic and/or mechanical commands needed to carry out the gesture may be implemented at an interface to control an instrument. Applications include control of an aircraft, entry of data from a keyboard or other data entry device, and entry of data and commands in extreme environments that interfere with accurate entry.

Jorgensen, Charles C.↗

Hypervelocity Impact of Unstressed and Stressed Titanium in a Whipple Configuration in Support of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle Service Module Propellant Tanks

Hypervelocity impacts were performed on six unstressed and six stressed titanium coupons with aluminium shielding in order to assess the effects of the partial penetration damage on the post impact micromechanical properties of titanium and on the residual strength after impact. This work is performed in support of the definition of the penetration criteria of the propellant tanks surfaces for the service module of the crew exploration vehicle where such a criterion is based on testing and analyses rather than on historical precedence. The objective of this work is to assess the effects of applied biaxial stress on the damage dynamics and morphology. The crater statistics revealed minute differences between stressed and unstressed coupon damage. The post impact residual stress analyses showed that the titanium strength properties were generally unchanged for the unstressed coupons when compared with undamaged titanium. However, high localized strains were shown near the craters during the tensile tests.

Nahra, Henry K.↗

Mesoscale Raised Rim Depressions (MRRDs) on Earth: A Review of the Characteristics, Processes, and Spatial Distributions of Analogs for Mars

Fields of mesoscale raised rim depressions (MRRDs) of various origins are found on Earth and Mars. Examples include rootless cones, mud volcanoes, collapsed pingos, rimmed kettle holes, and basaltic ring structures. Correct identification of MRRDs on Mars is valuable because different MRRD types have different geologic and/or climatic implications and are often associated with volcanism and/or water, which may provide locales for biotic or prebiotic activity. In order to facilitate correct identification of fields of MRRDs on Mars and their implications, this work provides a review of common terrestrial MRRD types that occur in fields. In this review, MRRDs by formation mechanism, including hydrovolcanic (phreatomagmatic cones, basaltic ring structures), sedimentological (mud volcanoes), and ice-related (pingos, volatile ice-block forms) mechanisms. For each broad mechanism, we present a comparative synopsis of (i) morphology and observations, (ii) physical formation processes, and (iii) published hypothesized locations on Mars. Because the morphology for MRRDs may be ambiguous, an additional tool is provided for distinguishing fields of MRRDs by origin on Mars, namely, spatial distribution analyses for MRRDs within fields on Earth. We find that MRRDs have both distinguishing and similar characteristics, and observation that applies both to their mesoscale morphology and to their spatial distribution statistics. Thus, this review provides tools for distinguishing between various MRRDs, while highlighting the utility of the multiple working hypotheses approach.

Burr, Devon M.↗