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DOE OSTI2023

Soft x-ray power diagnostics for fusion experiments at NIF, Omega, and Z facilities

Here, in this Review Article, we discuss a range of soft x-ray power diagnostics at inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and pulsed-power fusion facilities. This Review Article describes current hardware and analysis approaches and covers the following methods: x-ray diode arrays, bolometers, transmission grating spectrometers, and associated crystal spectrometers. These systems are fundamental for the diagnosis of ICF experiments, providing a wide range of critical parameters for the evaluation of fusion performance.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition

Earthquake prediction, the long-sought holy grail of earthquake science, continues to confound Earth scientists. Could we make advances by crowdsourcing, drawing from the vast knowledge and creativity of the machine learning (ML) community? We used Google’s ML competition platform, Kaggle, to engage the worldwide ML community with a competition to develop and improve data analysis approaches on a forecasting problem that uses laboratory earthquake data. The competitors were tasked with predicting the time remaining before the next earthquake of successive laboratory quake events, based on only a small portion of the laboratory seismic data. The more than 4,500 participating teams created and shared more than 400 computer programs in openly accessible notebooks. Complementing the now well-known features of seismic data that map to fault criticality in the laboratory, the winning teams employed unexpected strategies based on rescaling failure times as a fraction of the seismic cycle and comparing input distribution of training and testing data. In addition to yielding scientific insights into fault processes in the laboratory and their relation with the evolution of the statistical properties of the associated seismic data, the competition serves as a pedagogical tool for teaching ML in geophysics. The approach may provide a model for other competitions in geosciences or other domains of study to help engage the ML community on problems of significance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Where to cool off: a geospatial framework for placement of cooling centers

Indoor cooling is essential to reduce heat stress and increase passive survivability during heatwaves. Although air conditioning (AC) is recommended for maintaining indoor thermal comfort, low- and medium-income households in the U.S. often do not own an AC and/or limit AC usage to reduce energy consumption and associated costs, thereby risking their health and safety. With the frequency and intensity of heatwaves increasing, cooling centers are considered an appropriate alternative to indoor cooling and a possible mitigation strategy to prevent adverse health impacts of heat exposure. However, these centers are limited in numbers and not always accessible. This requires (i) developing a geospatial framework using physical and social factors for optimal siting of cooling centers to meet future needs and (ii) ranking of existing and potential cooling centers (schools, libraries, religious institutions) based on their accessibility among vulnerable populations and proximity to healthcare facilities. We developed and deployed a geospatial framework based on the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis approach in five U.S. cities (Los Angeles (LA), Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, Miami) to evaluate the effectiveness of the framework in ranking cooling centers based on accessibility and population coverage. The results revealed that (i) access to cooling centers varies across cities and 32.2–50.7% of centers are within walking distance of the most vulnerable populations, (ii) vulnerable populations exposed to Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects are more likely to experience energy burden, and (iii) about 21.2–49.4% of population with high energy burden have access to these centers. Considering that more cooling centers are needed to assist energy burdened households alleviate heat exposure impacts, the framework developed herein could be adapted to incorporate other factors (e.g. health impacts, policies) to assess site suitability of existing shelters, identify potential sites for new cooling centers, and geo-target communities where energy efficient emerging technologies could be deployed to reduce heat stress.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the detectability of the moving lens signal in CMB experiments

Abstract Upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments are expected to detect new signals probing interaction of CMB photons with intervening large-scale structure. Among these the moving-lens effect, the CMB temperature anisotropy induced by cosmological structures moving transverse to our line of sight, is anticipated to be measured to high significance in the near future. In this paper, we investigate two possible strategies for the detection of this signal: pairwise transverse-velocity estimation and oriented stacking. We expand on previous studies by including in the analysis realistic simulations of competing signals and foregrounds. We confirm that the moving lens effect can be detected at ≥ 10σlevel by a combination of CMB-S4 and LSST surveys. We show that the limiting factors in the detection depend on the strategy: for the stacking analysis, correlated extragalactic foregrounds, namely the cosmic infrared background and thermal Sunyaev Zel'dovich effect, play the most important role. The addition of foregrounds make the signal-to-noise ratio be most influenced by large and nearby objects. As for the pairwise detection, halo lensing and pair number counts are the main issues. In light of our findings, we elaborate on possible strategies to improve the analysis approach for the moving lens detection with upcoming experiments. We also deliver to the community all the simulations and tools we developed for this study.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 IV: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations from the Lyman alpha forest

We present the measurement of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) from the Lyman-α(Lyα) forest of high-redshift quasars with the first-year dataset of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Our analysis uses over 420 000 Lyα forest spectra and their correlation with the spatial distribution of more than 700 000 quasars. An essential facet of this work is the development of a new analysis methodology on a blinded dataset. We conducted rigorous tests using synthetic data to ensure the reliability of our methodology and findings before unblinding. Additionally, we conducted multiple data splits to assess the consistency of the results and scrutinized various analysis approaches to confirm their robustness. For a given value of the sound horizon (r d ), we measure the expansion at z eff = 2.33 with 2% precision, H(z eff ) = (239.2 ± 4.8) (147.09 Mpc /r d ) km/s/Mpc. Similarly, we present a 2.4% measurement of the transverse comoving distance to the same redshift, DM(z eff ) = (5.84 ± 0.14) (r d /147.09 Mpc) Gpc. Together with other DESI BAO measurements at lower redshifts, these results are used in a companion paper to constrain cosmological parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fiducial-cosmology-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 full-shape analysis

We assess the impact of the fiducial cosmology choice on cosmological inference from full-shape (FS) fits of the galaxy power spectrum in the DESI 2024 Data Release 1 (DR1). Using a suite of AbacusSummit DR1 mock catalogues based on the Planck 2018 best-fit cosmology, we quantify potential systematic shifts introduced by analysing the data under five secondary cosmologies — featuring variations in matter density, thawing dark energy, higher effective number of neutrino species, reduced clustering amplitude, and the DESI DR1 BAO best-fit w 0 w a CDM cosmology — relative to DESI's baseline Planck 2018 cosmology. We investigate two complementary FS analysis approaches: full-modelling (FM) and ShapeFit (SF), each with distinct sensitivities to the assumed fiducial model. Across all tracers, we find for FM that systematic shifts induced by fiducial cosmology mismatches remain well below the DESI DR1 statistical uncertainties, with maximum deviations of 0.22σ DR1 in ΛCDM scenarios and 0.12σ DR1+SN when including SN Ia mock data in extended w 0 w a CDM fits. For SF, the shifts in the compressed parameters remain below 0.45σ DR1 for all tracers and cosmologies.

dark energy experiments↗

DOE OSTI2023

Overcoming persistent challenges in putting environmental flow policy into practice: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis

The implementation of environmental flows (e-flows) aims to reduce the negative impacts of hydrological alteration on freshwater ecosystems. Despite the growing attention to the importance of e-flows since the 1970s, actual implementation has lagged. Therefore, we explore the limitations in e-flows implementation, their systemic reasons, and solutions. We conducted a systematic review and a bibliometric analysis to identify peer-reviewed articles published on the topic of e-flows implementation research in the last two decades, resulting in 68 research and review papers. Co-occurrence of terms, and geographic and temporal trends were analyzed to identify the gaps in environmental water management and propose recommendations to address limitations on e-flows implementation. We identify the underlying causes and potential solutions to such challenges in environmental water management. The limitations to e-flow implementation identified were categorized into 21 classes. The most recognized limitation was the competing priorities of human uses of water (n = 29). Many secondary limitations, generally co-occurring in co-causation, were identified as limiting factors, especially for implementing more nuanced and sophisticated e-flows. The lack of adequate hydrological data (n = 24) and ecological data (n = 28) were among the most mentioned, and ultimately lead to difficulties in starting or continuing monitoring/adaptive management (n = 28) efforts. The lack of resource/capacity (n = 21), experimentation (n = 19), regulatory enforcement (n = 17), and differing authorities involved (n = 18) were also recurrent problems, driven by the deficiencies in the relative importance given to e-flows when facing other human priorities. In order to provide a clearer path for successful e-flow implementation, system mapping can be used as a starting point and general-purpose resource for understanding the sociohydrological problems, interactions, and inherited complexity of river systems. Secondly, we recommend a system analysis approach to address competing demands, especially with the use of coupled water-energy modeling tools to support decision-making when hydropower generation is involved. Such approaches can better assess the complex interactions among the hydrologic, ecological, socioeconomic, and engineering dimensions of water resource systems and their effective management. Lastly, given the complexities in environmental water allocation, implementation requires both scientific rigor and proven utility. Consequently, and where possible, we recommend a move from simplistic flow allocations to a more holistic approach informed by hydroecological principles. To ease conflicts between competing water demands, water managers can realize more 'pop per drop' by supporting key components of a flow regime that include functional attributes and processes that enhance biogeochemical cycling, structural habitat formation, and ecosystem maintenance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The COMBS Survey - II. Distinguishing the metal-poor bulge from the halo interlopers

The metal-poor stars in the bulge are important relics of the Milky Way’s formation history, as simulations predict that they are some of the oldest stars in the Galaxy. In order to determine if they are truly ancient stars, we must understand their origins. Currently, it is unclear if the metal-poor stars in the bulge ([Fe/H] < -1 dex) are merely halo interlopers, a unique accreted population, part of the boxy/peanut-shaped bulge, or a classical bulge population. In this work, we use spectra from the VLT/FLAMES spectrograph to obtain metallicity estimates using the Ca-II triplet of 473 bulge stars (187 of which have [Fe/H] < -1 dex), targeted using SkyMapper photometry. We also use Gaia DR2 data to infer the Galactic positions and velocities along with orbital properties for 523 stars. We employ a probabilistic orbit analysis and find that about half of our sample has a >50 percent probability of being bound to the bulge, and half are halo interlopers. We also see that the occurrence rate of halo interlopers increases steadily with decreasing metallicity across the full range of our sample (-3 < [Fe/H] < 0.5). Our examination of the kinematics of the confined compared to the unbound stars indicates the metal-poor bulge comprises at least two populations; those confined to the boxy/peanut bulge and halo stars passing through the inner galaxy. We conclude that an orbital analysis approach, as we have employed, is important to understand the composite nature of the metal-poor stars in the inner region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observing neutron alignment at high angular momenta in heavy deformed actinides

An outstanding puzzle in the structure of very heavy nuclei lies in the rotation response of deformed transuranic isotopes. While the rotation alignment of pairs of 𝑖 13/2 protons is ubiquitous and well understood, observing the analogous alignment of the 𝑗 15/2 neutrons has been elusive. In this work we present a new quantitative analysis approach: from their moments of inertia as a function of frequency, we compare the alignments of rotational bands with both “low” and high-𝑗 intrinsic structures in the 𝑁 = 151 isotones of Pu, Cm, Cf, and No, thereby distinguishing between the alignments of neutron versus proton pairs through “blocking” effects. In this way, the alignment of 𝑗 15/2 neutrons can be clearly identified for the first time. The protons and neutrons begin aligning at a very similar frequency. The contribution of 𝑗 15/2 neutrons to the total alignment is found to grow with increasing 𝑍 compared to 𝑖 13/2 protons. To explain these observations, it is necessary to adopt a self-consistent set of single-particle energies corresponding to the nuclear shape that minimizes the mass. The shape description needs to include high-order deformations up to at least 𝛽 6 .

A ≥ 220↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reversible motions and disordered structure of soft particles in amorphous solids

In amorphous solids, soft vibrational modes derived from normal mode analysis can be utilized to identify the soft particles that are prone to irreversible rearrangements. However, the normal mode analysis approach cannot explain why the spatial distributions of clustered soft particles do not change over time. We define a softness parameter based on the vibrational density of states calculated directly from molecular dynamics simulations with both the harmonic vibrations and anharmonic relaxations being properly captured at finite temperatures. This parameter spontaneously correlates with the real space atomic motions and the dynamics heterogeneity. Using the softness parameter, we show that the softest particles are confined within rigid cages. These particles keep rearranging reversibly without long-range diffusion. The moderately soft particles rearrange irreversibly, and the hard particles mainly participate in vibrations without rearrangement. Here, we also show that the soft particles form locally disordered structures, while the hard particles present strong ordering. These findings confirm the defective nature of soft particles, and provide insights on the nature of softness as the ability to rearrange, but not necessarily irreversibly.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Behavior of strain stripe networks in barium titanate nanocrystals on crossing its ferroelectric phase transition

Nanoscale strain networks are reported in BaTi O 3 (BTO) crystals of 300 nm size using Bragg coherent diffractive imaging. BTO nanocrystals with clear facets were chosen to identify the crystallographic directions, allowing the strain field direction and periodicity to be studied in detail. Stripes of strain were observed, which were both stable and preserved in tetragonal and cubic phases at elevated temperatures, above the tetragonal-to-cubic phase transition. A finite element analysis approach was used to simulate the domain structures inside a BTO crystal and to understand the origins of the strain stripes as piezoelectric blocks. A 180 ∘ domain model gives a better qualitative match to the experimental images. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scalable Distributed Reachability Analysis for Cyber-Physical Networked Microgrids with Communication Latency

Due to the high penetration of power-electronic-interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs), a microgrid's inertia is significantly reduced, making it sensitive to cyberand physical operational changes. When multiple microgrids are interconnected to form networked microgrids for improving system's resilience, the changes of one microgrid can quickly escalate to the overall system. In cyber-physical networked microgrids, the communication latency varies a lot. To efficiently quantify the impact of the communication latency on the dynamics of networked microgrids, a scalable distributed reachability analysis approach is presented in this paper. Reachable sets are calculated for each microgrid and then composited for the overall system dynamics evaluation. Extensive tests in the full paper will demonstrate the influence of communication latency on system dynamics and validate reachable sets can bound a system's all dynamic trajectories subject to latency changes. The test results also offer an insight into designing and managing the communication network for enhancing the system's resilience.

Li, Yan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using an Analytic-Based Magnetic Charge Fourier Series Model to Study a Magnetic Lead Screw when Operating as a Magnetic Spring

A magnetic charge field analysis approach is presented that models an array of magnets by using a magnetic vector Fourier series representation. Using a Fourier series function enables the magnets' relative permeability to be accounted for and also reduces the computational burden. The accuracy of the presented modelling approach is validated by studying the fields and forces created by a magnetic lead screw when acting as a magnetic spring

Kouhshahi, Mojtaba Bahrami↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toward Automated Detection of Portability Bugs in Kokkos Parallel Programs

Performance-portable programming frameworks provide abstractions for parallel execution to allow easily porting an application to multiple backend programming models, such as CUDA, HIP, and OpenMP. However, programs may still have portability bugs that manifest only on specific backends. Traditional testing is ineffective in discovering these bugs, as it would require concrete execution on all supported hardware configurations for a potentially infinite set of inputs. To mitigate this issue, we focused on a specific programming framework, Kokkos, and identified several categories of common portability bugs. We then developed Klokkos, a static analysis approach based on symbolic execution that can run on commodity hardware, before execution on supercomputers. As a proof-of-concept, we ran Klokkos on examples encoding the identified bugs. Our results show that Klokkos is effective, efficient, and precise: it detected all the considered bugs, quickly, and without any false positives. Although preliminary, our results motivate further research and development in this direction.

Kale, Vivek↗

DOE OSTI2020

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy data from lightly Pd doped TiO 2 anatase nanoparticles

Here, two sets of XPS spectra from ≈13 nm slightly Pd-doped anatase TiO 2 particles are reported. Anatase is the most stable form of TiO 2 for small particles, and these spectra are the first spectra from nano-sized anatase to appear in Surface Science Spectra. The high resolution Ti 2p spectrum has an extended range showing important loss features not appearing in most of the earlier data records. The O 1s spectrum also has loss features often ignored, and in this case, the loss features are overlapped by some of the Ti 2s peak features that complicate quantitative analysis. The spectra reported here were used as example spectra in a guide to backgrounds in XPS, and the availability of these spectra in digital form allows LRH-analysts to compare their background selections and analysis approach to those discussed in the guide.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Variability of Electric System Reliability Metrics

As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.

Singh, Nagendra↗

DOE OSTI2024

ARQUIN: Architectures for Multinode Superconducting Quantum Computers

Many proposals to scale quantum technology rely on modular or distributed designs wherein individual quantum processors, called nodes, are linked together to form one large multinode quantum computer (MNQC). One scalable method to construct an MNQC is using superconducting quantum systems with optical interconnects. However, internode gates in these systems may be two to three orders of magnitude noisier and slower than local operations. Surmounting the limitations of internode gates will require improvements in entanglement generation, use of entanglement distillation, and optimized software and compilers. Still, it remains unclear what performance is possible with current hardware and what performance algorithms require. In this article, we employ a systems analysis approach to quantify overall MNQC performance in terms of hardware models of internode links, entanglement distillation, and local architecture. We show how to navigate tradeoffs in entanglement generation and distillation in the context of algorithm performance, lay out how compilers and software should balance between local and internode gates, and discuss when noisy quantum internode links have an advantage over purely classical links. Here, we find that a factor of 10–100× better link performance is required and introduce a research roadmap for the co-design of hardware and software towards the realization of early MNQCs. While we focus on superconducting devices with optical interconnects, our approach is general across MNQC implementations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Decision Support System

Forest-based value chains involve decisions that begin at the landscape level and extend through processing, product manufacturing, and end-use markets. However, these decisions are often made independently across sectors, with limited visibility into how upstream resource conditions, incentives, and land management choices influence downstream production systems. In forested regions of the United States, wildfire risk, fragmented ownership, and uncertain markets for low-value residues complicate efforts to align extraction, processing, and utilization decisions. Without tools that link these stages, stakeholders may overlook opportunities to improve resource utilization or inadvertently shift impacts elsewhere in the value chain. This repository introduces a decision support system (DSS) that applies a system-impact-analysis approach to forest biomass residues and co-products. The framework integrates forest inventory data, geospatial resource assessments, and economic modeling to evaluate how biomass extraction decisions influence downstream product pathways. By linking regional feedstock avail- ability with market incentives and processing options—such as fuels, wood products, or soil amendments like biochar—the tool allows decision-makers to compare value chain outcomes across multiple utilization strategies.

Davis, Maggie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗