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DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning approaches to predict gestational age in normal and complicated pregnancies via urinary metabolomics analysis

The elucidation of dynamic metabolomic changes during gestation is particularly important for the development of methods to evaluate pregnancy status or achieve earlier detection of pregnancy-related complications. Some studies have constructed models to evaluate pregnancy status and predict gestational age using omics data from blood biospecimens; however, less invasive methods are desired. Here we propose a model to predict gestational age, using urinary metabolite information. In our prospective cohort study, we collected 2741 urine samples from 187 healthy pregnant women, 23 patients with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and 14 patients with spontaneous preterm birth. Using gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we identified 184 urinary metabolites that showed dynamic systematic changes in healthy pregnant women according to gestational age. A model to predict gestational age during normal pregnancy progression was constructed; the correlation coefficient between actual and predicted weeks of gestation was 0.86. The predicted gestational ages of cases with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy exhibited significant progression, compared with actual gestational ages. This is the first study to predict gestational age in normal and complicated pregnancies by using urinary metabolite information. Minimally invasive urinary metabolomics might facilitate changes in the prediction of gestational age in various clinical settings.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Memory in aging colloidal gels with time-varying attraction

Here, we report a combined rheology, x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy, and modeling study of gel formation and aging in suspensions of nanocolloidal spheres with volume fractions of 0.20 and 0.43 and with a short-range attraction whose strength is tuned by changing temperature. Following a quench from high temperature, where the colloids are essentially hard spheres, to a temperature below the gel point, the suspensions form gels that undergo aging characterized by a steadily increasing elastic shear modulus and slowing, increasingly constrained microscopic dynamics. The aging proceeds at a faster rate for stronger attraction strength. When the attraction strength is suddenly lowered during aging, the gel properties evolve non-monotonically in a manner resembling the Kovacs effect in glasses, in which the modulus decreases and the microscopic dynamics become less constrained for a period before more conventional aging resumes. Eventually, the properties of the gel following the decrease in attraction strength converge to those of a gel that has undergone aging at the lower attraction strength throughout. The time scale of this convergence increases as a power law with the age at which the attraction strength is decreased and decreases exponentially with the magnitude of the change in attraction. A model for gel aging in which particles attach and detach from the gel at rates that depend on their contact number reproduces these trends and reveals that the non-monotonic behavior results from the dispersion in the rates that the populations of particles with different contact number adjust to the new attraction strength.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phase-field modeling of aging-induced microstructure evolution in pentaerythritol tetranitrate thin films and ramifications for shock initiation

Aging of energetic materials may change performance and affect their safety and reliability, but the relationship between microstructure changes induced by aging and consequent performance changes has not been fully established. This work presents results of phase-field method simulations used to model microstructure evolution of vapor-deposited pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) thin films. Simulated aging is shown to induce grain coarsening and substantial changes of the configuration of porosity in the film: Specifically, we show that porosity tends to concentrate in large pores to a greater degree in aged films, a state that is arrived at by closure or consolidation of small pores. To evaluate the performance of the as-deposited and aged films, we perform two-dimensional hydrocode flyer-film impact simulations that incorporate the phase-field output microstructures directly, permitting us to connect features therein to changes in reactivity, a key metric of energy output for shock initiation. The results demonstrate that declining sensitivity obtained for the simulated aged films can be correlated with the loss of fine-structured pores relatively early in the aging process, while long-term microstructure evolution that gradually alters the shape of large, branching pores is less impactful. Finally, we discuss commonalities and discrepancies between our simulation results and high-throughput initiation experiments on shock initiation of aged PETN thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2012

A REVISED AGE FOR UPPER SCORPIUS AND THE STAR FORMATION HISTORY AMONG THE F-TYPE MEMBERS OF THE SCORPIUS-CENTAURUS OB ASSOCIATION

We present an analysis of the ages and star formation history of the F-type stars in the Upper Scorpius (US), Upper Centaurus-Lupus (UCL), and Lower Centaurus-Crux (LCC) subgroups of Scorpius-Centaurus (Sco-Cen), the nearest OB association. Our parent sample is the kinematically selected Hipparcos sample of de Zeeuw et al., restricted to the 138 F-type members. We have obtained classification-resolution optical spectra and have also determined the spectroscopic accretion disk fraction. With Hipparcos and 2MASS photometry, we estimate the reddening and extinction for each star and place the candidate members on a theoretical H-R diagram. For each subgroup we construct empirical isochrones and compare to published evolutionary tracks. We find that (1) our empirical isochrones are consistent with the previously published age-rank of the Sco-Cen subgroups; (2) subgroups LCC and UCL appear to reach the main-sequence turn-on at spectral types {approx}F4 and {approx}F2, respectively. An analysis of the A-type stars shows US reaching the main sequence at about spectral type {approx}A3. (3) The median ages for the pre-main-sequence members of UCL and LCC are 16 Myr and 17 Myr, respectively, in agreement with previous studies, however we find that (4) Upper Sco is much older than previously thought. The luminosities of the F-type stars in US are typically a factor of {approx}2.5 less luminous than predicted for a 5 Myr old population for four sets of evolutionary tracks. We re-examine the evolutionary state and isochronal ages for the B-, A-, and G-type Upper Sco members, as well as the evolved M supergiant Antares, and estimate a revised mean age for Upper Sco of 11 {+-} 1 {+-} 2 Myr (statistical, systematic). Using radial velocities and Hipparcos parallaxes we calculate a lower limit on the kinematic expansion age for Upper Sco of >10.5 Myr (99% confidence). However, the data are statistically consistent with no expansion. We reevaluate the inferred masses for the known substellar companions in Upper Sco using the revised age and find that the inferred masses are typically {approx}20%-70% higher than the original estimates which had assumed a much younger age; specifically, we estimate the mass of 1RXS J1609-2105b to be 14{sup +2}{sub -3} M{sub Jup}, suggesting that it is a brown dwarf rather than a planet. Finally, we find the fraction of F-type stars exhibiting H{alpha} emission and/or a K-band excess consistent with accretion to be 0/17 (<19%; 95% CL) in US at {approx}11 Myr, while UCL has 1/41 (2{sup +5}{sub -1}%; 68% CL) accretors and LCC has 1/50 (2{sup +4}{sub -1}%; 68% CL) accretors at {approx}16 Myr and {approx}17 Myr, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

AGES AND METALLICITIES OF CLUSTER GALAXIES IN A779 USING MODIFIED STROeMGREN PHOTOMETRY

In the quest for the formation and evolution of galaxy clusters, Rakos and co-workers introduced a spectrophotometric method using modified Stroemgren photometry, but with the considerable debate toward the project's abilities, we re-introduce the system by testing for the repeatability of the modified Stroemgren colors and compare them with the Stroemgren colors, and check for the reproducibility of the ages and metallicities (using the Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique and the GALEV models) for the six common galaxies in all three A779 data sets. As a result, a fair agreement between two filter systems was found to produce similar colors (with a precision of 0.09 mag in (uz - vz), 0.02 mag in (bz - yz), and 0.03 mag in (vz - vz)) and the generated ages and metallicities are also similar (with an uncertainty of 0.36 Gyr and 0.04 dex from PCA and 0.44 Gyr and 0.2 dex using the GALEV models). We infer that the technique is able to relieve the age-metallicity degeneracy by separating the age effects from the metallicity effects, but it is still unable to completely eliminate it. We further extend this paper to re-study the evolution of galaxies in the low mass, dynamically poor A779 cluster (as it was not elaborately analyzed by Rakos and co-workers in their previous work) by correlating the luminosity (mass), density, and radial distance with the estimated age, metallicity, and the star formation history. Our results distinctly show the bimodality of the young, low-mass, metal-poor population with a mean age of 6.7 Gyr ({+-} 0.5 Gyr) and the old, high-mass, metal-rich galaxies with a mean age of 9 Gyr ({+-} 0.5 Gyr). The method also observes the color evolution of the blue cluster galaxies to red (Butcher-Oemler phenomenon), and the downsizing phenomenon. Our analysis shows that modified Stroemgren photometry is very well suited for studying low- and intermediate-z clusters, as it is capable of observing deeper with better spatial resolution at spectroscopic redshift limits, and the narrowband filters estimate the age and metallicity with fewer uncertainties compared to other methods that study stellar population scenarios.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

THE EFFECTS OF ROTATION ON THE MAIN-SEQUENCE TURNOFF OF INTERMEDIATE-AGE MASSIVE STAR CLUSTERS

The double or extended main-sequence turnoffs (MSTOs) in the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) of intermediate-age massive star clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud are generally interpreted as age spreads of a few hundred Myr. However, such age spreads do not exist in younger clusters (i.e., 40-300 Myr), which challenges this interpretation. The effects of rotation on the MSTOs of star clusters have been studied in previous works, but the results obtained are conflicting. Compared with previous works, we consider the effects of rotation on the main-sequence lifetime of stars. Our calculations show that rotating models have a fainter and redder MSTO with respect to non-rotating counterparts with ages between about 0.8 and 2.2 Gyr, but have a brighter and bluer MSTO when age is larger than 2.4 Gyr. The spread of the MSTO caused by a typical rotation rate is equivalent to the effect of an age spread of about 200 Myr. Rotation could lead to the double or extended MSTOs in the CMD of the star clusters with ages between about 0.8 and 2.2 Gyr. However, the extension is not significant, and it does not even exist in younger clusters. If the efficiency of the mixing were high enough, the effects of the mixing would counteract the effect of the centrifugal support in the late stage of evolution, and the rotationally induced extension would disappear in the old intermediate-age star clusters, but younger clusters would have an extended MSTO. Moreover, the effects of rotation might aid in understanding the formation of some 'multiple populations' in globular clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Stellar age spreads in clusters as imprints of cluster-parent clump densities

It has recently been suggested that high-density star clusters have stellar age distributions much narrower than that of the Orion Nebula Cluster, indicating a possible trend of narrower age distributions for denser clusters. We show this effect to likely arise from star formation being faster in gas with a higher density. We model the star formation history of molecular clumps in equilibrium by associating a star formation efficiency per free-fall time, ε{sub ff}, to their volume density profile. We focus on the case of isothermal spheres and we obtain the evolution with time of their star formation rate. Our model predicts a steady decline of the star formation rate, which we quantify with its half-life time, namely, the time needed for the star formation rate to drop to half its initial value. Given the uncertainties affecting the star formation efficiency per free-fall time, we consider two distinct values: ε{sub ff} = 0.1 and ε{sub ff} = 0.01. When ε{sub ff} = 0.1, the half-life time is of the order of the clump free-fall time, τ{sub ff}. As a result, the age distributions of stars formed in high-density clumps have smaller full-widths at half-maximum than those of stars formed in low-density clumps. When the star formation efficiency per free-fall time is 0.01, the half-life time is 10 times longer, i.e., 10 clump free-fall times. We explore what happens if the duration of star formation is shorter than 10τ{sub ff}, that is, if the half-life time of the star formation rate cannot be defined. There, we build on the invariance of the shape of the young cluster mass function to show that an anti-correlation between the clump density and the duration of star formation is expected. We therefore conclude that, regardless of whether the duration of star formation is longer than the star formation rate half-life time, denser molecular clumps yield narrower star age distributions in clusters. Published densities and stellar age spreads of young clusters and star-forming regions actually suggest that the timescale for star formation is of order 1-4τ{sub ff}. We also discuss how the age bin size and uncertainties in stellar ages affect our results. We conclude that there is no need to invoke the existence of multiple cluster formation mechanisms to explain the observed range of stellar age spreads in clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

BANYAN. IV. Fundamental parameters of low-mass star candidates in nearby young stellar kinematic groups—isochronal age determination using magnetic evolutionary models

Based on high-resolution optical spectra obtained with ESPaDOnS at Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, we determine fundamental parameters (T {sub eff}, R, L {sub bol}, log g, and metallicity) for 59 candidate members of nearby young kinematic groups. The candidates were identified through the BANYAN Bayesian inference method of Malo et al., which takes into account the position, proper motion, magnitude, color, radial velocity, and parallax (when available) to establish a membership probability. The derived parameters are compared to Dartmouth magnetic evolutionary models and field stars with the goal of constraining the age of our candidates. We find that, in general, low-mass stars in our sample are more luminous and have inflated radii compared to older stars, a trend expected for pre-main-sequence stars. The Dartmouth magnetic evolutionary models show a good fit to observations of field K and M stars, assuming a magnetic field strength of a few kG, as typically observed for cool stars. Using the low-mass members of the β Pictoris moving group, we have re-examined the age inconsistency problem between lithium depletion age and isochronal age (Hertzspring-Russell diagram). We find that the inclusion of the magnetic field in evolutionary models increases the isochronal age estimates for the K5V-M5V stars. Using these models and field strengths, we derive an average isochronal age between 15 and 28 Myr and we confirm a clear lithium depletion boundary from which an age of 26 ± 3 Myr is derived, consistent with previous age estimates based on this method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

An improved determination of the lithium depletion boundary age of Blanco 1 and a first look on the effects of magnetic activity

The lithium depletion boundary (LDB) is a robust method for accurately determining the ages of young clusters, but most pre-main-sequence models used to derive LDB ages do not include the effects of magnetic activity on stellar properties. In light of this, we present results from our spectroscopic study of the very-low-mass members of the southern open cluster Blanco 1 using the Gemini-North Telescope, program IDs: GN-2009B-Q-53 and GN-2010B-Q-96. We obtained Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph spectra at intermediate resolution for cluster candidate members with I ≈ 13-20 mag. From our sample of 43 spectra, we find 14 probable cluster members by considering proximity to the cluster sequence in an I/I – K {sub s} color-magnitude diagram, agreement with the cluster's systemic radial velocity, and magnetic activity as a youth indicator. We systematically analyze the Hα and Li features and update the LDB age of Blanco 1 to be 126{sub −14}{sup +13} Myr. Our new LDB age for Blanco 1 shows remarkable coevality with the benchmark Pleiades open cluster. Using available empirical activity corrections, we investigate the effects of magnetic activity on the LDB age of Blanco 1. Accounting for activity, we infer a corrected LDB age of 114{sub −10}{sup +9} Myr. This work demonstrates the importance of accounting for magnetic activity on LDB inferred stellar ages, suggesting the need to reinvestigate previous LDB age determinations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Extended main sequence turnoffs in intermediate-age star clusters: a correlation between turnoff width and early escape velocity

We present a color-magnitude diagram analysis of deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging of a mass-limited sample of 18 intermediate-age (1-2 Gyr old) star clusters in the Magellanic Clouds, including eight clusters for which new data were obtained. We find that all star clusters in our sample feature extended main-sequence turnoff (eMSTO) regions that are wider than can be accounted for by a simple stellar population (including unresolved binary stars). FWHM widths of the MSTOs indicate age spreads of 200-550 Myr. We evaluate the dynamical evolution of clusters with and without initial mass segregation. Our main results are (1) the fraction of red clump (RC) stars in secondary RCs in eMSTO clusters scales with the fraction of MSTO stars having pseudo-ages of ≲1.35 Gyr; (2) the width of the pseudo-age distributions of eMSTO clusters is correlated with their central escape velocity v {sub esc}, both currently and at an age of 10 Myr. We find that these two results are unlikely to be reproduced by the effects of interactive binary stars or a range of stellar rotation velocities. We therefore argue that the eMSTO phenomenon is mainly caused by extended star formation within the clusters; and (3) we find that v {sub esc} ≥ 15 km s{sup –1} out to ages of at least 100 Myr for all clusters featuring eMSTOs, and v {sub esc} ≤ 12 km s{sup –1} at all ages for two lower-mass clusters in the same age range that do not show eMSTOs. We argue that eMSTOs only occur for clusters whose early escape velocities are higher than the wind velocities of stars that provide material from which second-generation stars can form. The threshold of 12-15 km s{sup –1} is consistent with wind velocities of intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch stars and massive binary stars in the literature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

ON THE AGE AND BINARITY OF FOMALHAUT

The nearby (d = 7.7 pc) A3V star Fomalhaut is orbited by a resolved dusty debris disk and a controversial candidate extrasolar planet. The commonly cited age for the system (200 {+-} 100 Myr) from Barrado y Navascues et al. relied on a combination of isochronal age plus youth indicators for the K4V common proper-motion system TW PsA. TW PsA is 1.{sup 0}96 away from Fomalhaut and was first proposed as a companion by Luyten, but the physicality of the binarity is worth testing with modern data. I demonstrate that TW PsA is unequivocally a physical stellar companion to Fomalhaut, with true separation 0.280{sup +0.019}{sub -.012} pc (57.4{sup +3.9}{sub -2.5} kAU) and sharing velocities within 0.1 {+-} 0.5 km s{sup -1}-consistent with being a bound system. Hence, TW PsA should be considered 'Fomalhaut B'. Combining modern H-R diagram constraints with four sets of evolutionary tracks, and assuming the star was born with protosolar composition, I estimate a new isochronal age for Fomalhaut of 450 {+-} 40 Myr and mass of 1.92 {+-} 0.02 M{sub Sun }. Various stellar youth diagnostics are re-examined for TW PsA. The star's rotation, X-ray emission, and Li abundances are consistent with approximate ages of 410, 380, and 360 Myr, respectively, yielding a weighted mean age of 400 {+-} 70 Myr. Combining the independent ages, I estimate a mean age for the Fomalhaut-TW PsA binary of 440 {+-} 40 Myr. The older age implies that substellar companions of a given mass are approximately 1 mag fainter at IR wavelengths than previously assumed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Spatial variations in the Milky Way disc metallicity–age relation

ABSTRACT Stellar ages are a crucial component to studying the evolution of the Milky Way. Using Gaia DR2 distance estimates, it is now possible to estimate stellar ages for a larger volume of evolved stars through isochrone matching. This work presents [M/H]–age and [α/M]–age relations derived for different spatial locations in the Milky Way disc. These relations are derived by hierarchically modelling the star formation history of stars within a given chemical abundance bin. For the first time, we directly observe that significant variation is apparent in the [M/H]–age relation as a function of both Galactocentric radius and distance from the disc mid-plane. The [M/H]–age relations support claims that radial migration has a significant effect in the plane of the disc. Using the [M/H] bin with the youngest mean age at each radial zone in the plane of the disc, the present-day metallicity gradient is measured to be −0.059 ± 0.010 dex kpc−1, in agreement with Cepheids and young field stars. We find a vertically flared distribution of young stars in the outer disc, confirming predictions of models and previous observations. The mean age of the [M/H]–[α/M] distribution of the solar neighbourhood suggests that the high-[M/H] stars are not an evolutionary extension of the low-α sequence. Our observational results are important constraints to Galactic simulations and models of chemical evolution.

Feuillet, Diane K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Stand Age and Fertilization on the Soil Microbiome of Miscanthus × giganteus

Yield of the perennial grass Miscanthus × giganteus has shown an inconsistent and unpredictable response to nitrogen (N) fertilizer, yet fertilization underpins the crop’s environmental and economic sustainability. The interactions among soil microbial communities, N availability, and Miscanthus × giganteus and management may explain changes in plant productivity. In this study, soil samples from different stand ages of Miscanthus × giganteus in a replicated chronosequence field trial were used to investigate the effects of stand age and N fertilizer rates on microbial community structure. We hypothesized that there is a definable Miscanthus × giganteus soil microbiome and that this community varies significantly with stand age and fertilization. Our results showed that the main phyla in soil microbial communities, regardless of plant age, are similar but microbial community structures are significantly different. The variation in observed microbial communities generally decreases with older stand ages. The amount of N fertilizer applied also affected the microbial community structure associated with different aged Miscanthus × giganteus. Specifically, the relative abundance of Proteobacteria (Alphaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria) and Acidobacteria (subgroup Gp1) increased shortly after fertilization and was more associated with younger Miscanthus × giganteus. Furthermore, our results show a significant relationship between bacterial α diversity and fertilization rates and that this response is also affected by stand age. Overall, our results emphasize linkages between microbial community structure, plant age, and fertilization in Miscanthus × giganteus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

MO-E-17A-10: Evaluation of Body and Head Dimensions of Pediatric Patients as a Function of Age

Purpose: Phantom development in medical physics plays an important role in radiation dose assessment and image quality evaluation, and this is especially true in the pediatric patient population. The purpose of this investigation was to establish the relationship between patient age and patient size, focusing on the abdomen-pelvis and head effective diameters, for patients ranging in age from newborn to 18 years. Methods: A dose reporting tool for computed tomography systems was installed at our institution to achieve compliance with state law commencing on July 1, 2012. The software records a number of patient-specific data, and also reports CT dose metrics (CTDIvol and DLP) into the patients interpretive report. The database generated by the software was mined to determine patient effective diameter as a function of age for pediatric patients aged 0–18 years. CT protocols including abdomen-pelvis and routine head were evaluated, and specific to this study the patients age, gender and equivalent diameter were recorded. Results: Six age ranges were evaluated: A(0–3), B(4–6), C(7–9), D(10–12),E(13–15),F(16–18). For the torso in these groups based upon 694 patients, median effective diameters were 147, 167, 184, 214, 231, 246 mm, respectively. For the head (N=1833), median diameters were 143, 157, 162, 168, 174, and 174, respectively. Conclusion: A solid understanding of the approximate dimensions of pediatric patients as a function of age is useful in the development of age-based imaging protocols and dose assessments. CT dose-reporting tools generate a great deal of data with respect to body dimensions automatically. In this study, median equivalent diameters for the abdomen-pelvis and head of pediatric patients were evaluated. These data may prove useful in the development of both mathematical and physical phantoms for dosimetry and image quality assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A field guide for aging passerine nestlings using growth data and predictive modeling

Abstract Background Accurate nestling age is valuable for studies on nesting strategies, productivity, and impacts on reproductive success. Most aging guides consist of descriptions and photographs that are time consuming to read and subjective to interpret. The Western Bluebird ( Sialia mexicana ) is a secondary cavity-nesting passerine that nests in coniferous and open deciduous forests. Nest box programs for cavity-nesting species have provided suitable nesting locations and opportunities for data collection on nestling growth and development. Methods We developed models for predicting the age of Western Bluebird nestlings from morphometric measurements using model training and validation. These were developed for mass, tarsus, and two different culmen measurements. Results Our models were accurate to within less than a day, and each model worked best for a specific age range. The mass and tarsus models can be used to estimate the ages of Western Bluebird nestlings 0–10 days old and were accurate to within 0.5 days for mass and 0.7 days for tarsus. The culmen models can be used to estimate ages of nestlings 0–15 days old and were also accurate to within less than a day. The daily mean, minimum, and maximum values of each morphometric measurement are provided and can be used in the field for accurate nestling age estimations in real time. Conclusions The model training and validation procedures used here demonstrate that this method can create aging models that are highly accurate. The methods can be applied to any passerine species provided sufficient nestling morphometric data are available.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Caribbean deepwater snappers: Application of the bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation in understanding aspects of ecology and life history

Reef fishes have been utilized as food fish throughout the U.S. Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters for centuries, with increasing fishing effort in recent decades. As a result, many species have experienced declines in landings, including deepwater snappers such as queen snapper Etelis oculatus and blackfin snapper Lutjanus buccanella . However, little to no peer-reviewed published research exists on basic life history parameters for either species. Confirming the accuracy of an age estimation method for a fish species is essential for ensuring sustainable fisheries management. This is because in the assessment of fisheries species population age-based parameters, including longevity, age at sexual maturity, growth rate, mortality, age-specific reproductive output, and lifetime reproductive output, are important in understanding overall life history strategies of managed stocks. The past stock assessment on U.S. Caribbean queen snapper utilized an estimated longevity of 8 y, derived from length frequencies for fish from St. Lucia. Blackfin snapper has an estimated longevity of 27 y based on a relatively small study from offshore waters of the southeastern U.S. The focus of our investigation was to estimate maximum longevity of two data-poor species in the U.S. Caribbean. The accuracy of ageing methods was tested via bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation and effects of depth on Δ 14 C in otolith cores and eye lens core values were examined. Results from our work indicate a maximum validated age of 45 y for queen snapper, and 43 y for blackfin snapper. Our findings indicate queen snapper and blackfin snapper are long-lived (> 40 y). The resulting Δ 14 C comparison between eye lens cores and otolith cores has important implications for the study of age validation, specifically when deepwater species are involved.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tensile Property and Lifetime Prediction for Low-Temperature Aged Uranium-Niobium Alloys

Thermal aging models and lifetime predictions for uranium-niobium (U-Nb) alloys were created using an approach similar to those previously employed. Lifetime estimates for generic U-6Nb components were thus updated; the reported value being 800 years. This update represents a small change in lifetime vs. that of the 2012 assessment (540 years). This lifetime estimate emerged from consideration of several model fits specific to the aging datasets and properties chosen. Aging was quantified using quasi-static tensile properties measured on specimens artificially aged for up to 10 years. The major change relative to the most recent 2012 LANL assessment was that a more comprehensive body of U-Nb literature data was mined, in addition to being augmented by the latest LANL and UK AWE data. The tensile data compilation was published separately (LANL report LA-14493, December 2016). Recognizing the chemical banding of industrially produced U-6Nb, models were developed for the mid-range (6 wt.%) and extrema (4 and 8 wt.%) compositions. Lifetime estimates were calculated for all three alloy classes (4, 6, 8 wt.% nominal) and two measures of total tensile elongation (TE) to failure, namely TE-ext. — extensometer method, and TE-NCD — normalized crosshead displacement method. The conservative assumption was made that whichever composition (4, 6, or 8 wt.% Nb) and property (TE-ext or TE-NCD) was the first to cross the ductility failure threshold would limit the lifetime of the entire component. Tensile strength properties did not figure into the lifetime predictions, but could be useful as age-sensitive diagnostics and were also modeled. Of these, only first yield strength is expected to show a change at 40°C aging vs. time = 0 over the ~100-year timespan of engineering interest. Second yield strength evolves more slowly, and ultimate tensile strength slower still. Among all the models, the apparent activation energies for aging were mostly in the narrow 29– 37 kcal/mol range, which is close to that for diffusion of Nb in gamma-uranium. This agreement may be coincidental. The data from recent long-term aging studies substantially improved the model fit quality and robustness of the lifetimes. Appendices document sensitivity studies of the model fits and lifetimes with respect to using more limited datasets. These results highlight the limitations of relying solely on data from scattered literature studies and smaller datasets more generally.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Thermal Aging on Microstructure and Stress Corrosion Cracking Behavior of an Alloy 152 1st Layer Butter Weldment

Nickel-based Alloy 690 and the associated weld Alloys 52 and 152 are typically used for nozzle penetrations in replacement heads for pressurized water reactor (PWR) vessels, because of their excellent overall resistance to general corrosion and environmental degradation, primarily stress corrosion cracking (SCC). However, many of the existing PWRs are expected to operate for 40- 80 years. Likewise, water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) will use Ni-Cr alloys and are expected to receive initial operating licenses for 60 years. Hence, the thermal stability of Ni-Cr alloys is critical for the long-term performance of both existing and advanced nuclear power plants, and possibly spent fuel storage containers. The objective of this research is to understand the microstructural changes occurring in high-Cr, Ni-based Alloy 152 weldments during long time exposure to the reactor operating temperatures, and the effect of these changes on the service performance. One area of particular concern is the potential for long range ordering (LRO), i.e. formation of the intermetallic Ni2Cr phase under prolonged exposure to reactor temperatures and/or irradiation, which can increase strength, decrease ductility, and cause dimensional changes or lead to in-service embrittlement of components made with these alloys. Hence, this research focused on the microstructural evolution and the SCC response of Alloy 152 under accelerated thermal aging. The materials studied involved three heats of Alloy 152 used to produce a dissimilar metal weld (DMW) joining an Alloy 690 plate to an Alloy 533 low alloy steel (LAS) plate, thermally aged at three different temperatures (370°C, 400°C and 450°C) for different durations up to 75,000h (equivalent to 60 years of reactor service). The microstructural characterization by means of synchrotron X-ray conducted in small, 0.2 mm - step line scans in the high-deformation regions of the weld root – covering areas spanning from the weld heat affected zone (HAZ) in Alloy 690 to the weld and weld butter on LAS - did not show evidence of LRO in any of the three Alloy 152 heats aged at 370°C and 450°C to an equivalent of 60 years of service. However, the first weld butter layer has high levels of deformation and is highly susceptible to SCC even in its non-aged condition. Nanohardness testing confirmed the extreme hardening with aging (ΔHV ≅ 100) at two locations within this weldment. In absence of LRO, hardening is suspected to be due to thermally-induced Cr carbide precipitation and coarsening. Testing in a primary water environment of the 1st layer of Alloy 152 weld butter aged at 370°C to a 60-year service equivalent revealed a fatigue and corrosion fatigue crack growth responses similar to those measured on the un-aged alloys. Similarly, the SCC CGR response of the aged weld butter does not appear to show a deterioration in performance, however, the difficult-to-test weldment geometry may affect the test results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗