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At least 379 records · Page 21

Future enhancements to ground-based microburst detection

This set of viewgraphs presents the results of the Cockpit Weather Information (CWI) program at M.I.T. Lincoln Laboratory. The CWI program has been funded through NaSA Langley Research Center by the joint NASA/FAA Integrated Airborne Wind Shear Program for the past four years. During this time, over 120 microburst penetrations by research aircraft have been conducted under Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) testbed radar surveillance at Orlando, FL. The results of these in-situ measurements have been compared with ground-based detection methods. Several valuable insights were gained from this research activity. First, it was found that the current TDWR microburst shapes do not permit accurate characterization of microburst hazard in terms of the F factor hazard index, because they are based on loss value rather than shear. Second, it was found that the horizontal component of the F factor can be accurately estimated from shear, provided compensation is made for the dependence of outflow strength on altitude. Third, it was found that a simple continuity assumption for estimating the vertical component of the F factor yielded poor results. However, further research has shown that downdraft strength is correlated with features aloft detected by the TDWR radar scan strategy. The outcome of the CWI program is to move from the loss-based wind shear detection algorithm used in the TDWR to a shear-based detection scheme as proposed in the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS).

Campbell, Steven D.↗

Effect of heavy rain on aircraft

A summary on heavy rain effects on aircraft aerodynamics validation of research and some wind shear accidents in which heavy rain were an important factor. Frost formation and what frost does to the lift and drag curves for an airfoil was examined. If frost could cause severe aerodynamic problems for both general aviation and transport aircraft due to its roughness, then heavy rain produce a similar result. The influencing parameters of heavy rain on an aircraft are studied. Sources of aerodynamic roughness due to rain and wind shear and heavy rain accidents are outlined.

Luers, J. K.↗

Assessing the Variability of Radiation, Water and Energy in the Deep Tropics Over the Last 3 Decades

Global surface energy closure and its variability depends heavily upon the surface radiative energy budget in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance is observed between energy and water fluxes in terms of energy closure in some atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process has wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures. In this presentation, we assess the surface radiative budget in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES Ed4.1, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the variability across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present. We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear. We include further analysis contrasting 6 key tropical oceanic regions (Indian Ocean east and west, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean) and the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work.

Radiation budget↗

RADAR performance experiments

Theoretical studies and experimental results obtained at Coulommiers airport showed the capability of Proust radar to detect wind shears, in clear air condition as well as in presence of clouds or rain. Several examples are presented: in a blocking highs situation an atmospheric wave system at the Brunt-Vaisala frequency can be clearly distinguished; in a situation of clouds without rain the limit between clear air and clouds can be easily seen; and a windshear associated with a gust front in rainy conditions is shown. A comparison of 30 cm clear air radar Proust and 5 cm weather Doppler radar Ronsard will allow to select the best candidate for wind shear detection, taking into account the low sensibility to ground clutter of Ronsard radar.

Leroux, C.↗

[Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones]

The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance fights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 m/s and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of: rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intense.

Source record↗

Mesoscale Aspects of the Downshear Reformation of a Tropical Cyclone

The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance fights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 m/s and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of: rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intense.

Source record↗

Improving Our Understanding of Atlantic Hurricanes Through Knowledge of the Saharan Air Layer: Hope Or Hype?

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air frequently present over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. The nature of its impact on hurricanes remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts. Some investigators have assumed the validity of these proposed negative influences and have frequently used them to explain the failure of individual storms to intensify or to explain the relative inactivity of recent hurricane seasons. Multiple NASA satellite data sets and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL's properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results will shows that neither jet--induced vertical wind shear nor warm SAL air (high stability) produce significant negative impacts on Atlantic storms. Dry air appears to be a key mechanism for SAL influence, but the presence of dry SAL air is not always a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. Idealized simulations will be used to evaluate the role of dry air. Finally, two case studies of supposedly "prime examples" of SAL influence will show that the negative influences of the SAL are perhaps too readily ascribed to individual storms that fail to reach their maximum potential intensity.

Braun, Scott↗

Accuracy of aircraft velocities from inertial navigation systems for application to airborne wind measurements

An experimental assessment was made of two commercially available inertial navigation systems (INS) with regard to their velocity measuring capability for use in wind, shear, and long-wavelength atmospheric turbulence research. The assessment was based on 52 sets of postflight measurements of velocity (error) during a "Schuler cycle" (84 minutes) while the INS was still operating but the airplane was motionless. Four INS units of one type and two units of another were tested over a period of 2 years after routine research flights similar to air-linetype operations of from 1 to 6 hours duration. The maximum postflight errors found for the 52 cases had a root mean square value of 2.82 m/sec with little or no correlation of error magnitude with flight duration. Using an INS for monitoring ground speed during landway in a predicted high wind shear situation could lead to landing speeds which are dangerously high or low.

Rhyne, R. H.↗

NASA B-57B severe storms flight program

The B-57B Severe Storms Flight Program gathers data to characterize atmosphere anomalies such as wind shear, turbulence, and microbursts at altitudes up to 1000 feet (300 meters). These data are used to enhance the knowledge of atmospheric processes, to improve aviation safety, to develop systems technology and piloting technique for avoiding hazards and to increase the understanding of the causes of related aircraft accidents. The NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility B-57B aircraft has participated in several severe storms data collection programs such as the Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) located in Denver, Colorado area, Operation Rough Rider located in the Norman, Oklahoma area with the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and Mountain and desert turbulence in the Edwards Air Force Base, California area. Flight data are presented from flights which encountered the wind shear, turbulence and microburst anomalies. These flight results are discussed and some conclusions are made relating to these atmospheric anomalies.

Painter, W. D.↗

Deep convection on day 261 of GATE

The structural features of the deep convection observed on September 18, 1974, day 261 of the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE), as the ridge axis of a 700 mb wave passed the center of the GATE B-scale network are reported. Satellite and aircraft maps indicate the presence of clouds penetrating above 2.5 km into the middle troposphere organized in bands about 9 km apart and aligned roughly along the direction of the wind shear in the cloud layer. Radar echoes corresponding to cumulus convection of lifetime, peak height and peak rainfall rates on the orders of 30 min, 6 km and 1.3 mm/h, respectively, were observed to triple in number density as convergence at 950 hPa increased from 1.5 to 3 x 10 to the -5th/sec. The structural features of the radar echoes indicate that the day was similar to a mesoscale precipitation feature of Leary and Houe (1979), with the cluster consisting of many echoes appearing in succession. Data from aircraft penetrations of the deep convection reveal downdrafts accompanying the precipitation and updrafts immediately to their south. Shipboard and rawinsonde observations show that the convective downdrafts brought down air of low pseudo-equivalent potential temperature, with local surface convergence of up to 0.001/sec. Mean wind shears through the cloud layer to the top of a main cloud layer are found to be only 75% greater than those of Malkus (1958) for the Caribbean, with shears just above the cloud base several factors larger.

Warner, C.↗

The environmental influence on tropical cyclone precipitation

The intensity, spatial, and temporal changes in precipitation were examined in three North Atlantic hurricanes during 1989 (Dean, Gabrielle, and Hugo) using precipitation estimates made from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) measurements. In addition, analyses from a barotropic hurricane forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model were used to examine the relationship between the evolution of the precipitation in these tropical cyclones and external forcing. The external forcing parameters examined were (1) mean climatological sea surface temperatures, (2) vertical wind shear, (3) environmental tropospheric water vapor flux, and (4) upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence. The analyses revealed that (1) the SSM/I precipitation estimates were able to delineate and monitor convective ring cycles similar to those observed with land-based and aircraft radar and in situ measurements; (2) tropical cyclone intensification was observed to occur when these convective rings propagated into the inner core of these systems (within 111 km of the center) and when the precipitation rates increased; (3) tropical cyclone weakening was observed to occur when these inner-core convective rings dissipated; (4) the inward propagation of the outer convective rings coincided with the dissipation of the inner convective rings when they came within 55 km of each other; (5) in regions with the combined warm sea surface temperatures (above 26 C) and low vertical wind shear (less than 5 m/s), convective rings outside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be initiated by strong surges of tropospheric moisture, while convective rings inside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be enhanced by upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

Noachian Martian Volcanics a Water Source

H2O was supplied to the Noachian atmosphere by eruptions, or in association with large impacts. Most water outgassed into an extremely cold atmosphere, and condensate deposits were inevitable. High heat flow could lead to subglacial melting only if ice thicknesses were greater than 500-1000m, which is extremely unlikely. Subareal melting and flow is contingent upon temperatures periodically exceeding 273 K, and retarding evaporative loss of the flow. In still air, evaporation into a dry atmosphere is in the free convection regime, and a stream with 2 cu m/s discharge, flowing 1 m/s could persist for hundreds of days and cover distances greater than any valley reach. The zero-wind-shear condition is considered implausible however. We investigate the possibility that evaporation rates were suppressed because the atmosphere was regionally charged with H2O as it moved over snow/ice fields. Our initial concern is precipitation from volcanic plumes. A Kilauea-style eruption on the martian surface would cover a 10km circular deposit with 10cm of H2O, if all H2O could be precipitated near the vent. The characteristics of the eruption at the vent, (vent size, temperature, H2O content, etc.) are independent of the environmental conditions. The subsequent behavior of the plume, including precipitation of ash and H2O condensate depends strongly on the environment. Hence, the proximal fate of volcanic H2O is amenable to treatment in a model. A simple bulk thermodynamic model of the rise of an H2O plume through a stably stratified CO2 atmosphere, with only adiabatic cooling, produces runaway plume rise. A more complex treatment includes the effects of latent heat release, wind shear along the plume, divergence of ash and H2O, and will yield more realistic estimates of H2O transport in eruptive plumes. Results of these simulations will be presented.

Zent, A. P.↗

Improving our Understanding of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones through Knowledge of the Saharan Air Layer: Hope or Hype?

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet produces the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. Multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL s properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and rarely moves over their inner cores, so jet-induced vertical wind shear does not appear to be a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. Of the three proposed negative influences, dry air appears to be the key influence; however, the presence of dry SAL air is not a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. In addition, a global view of relative humidity shows moisture distributions in other ocean basins that are almost identical to the Atlantic. The dry zones correspond to regions of descending air on the eastern and equatorward sides of semi-permanent oceanic high pressure systems. Thus, the dry air over the Atlantic appears to be primarily a product of the large-scale flow, but with enhanced drying at low levels associated with the Sahara. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not a major negative influence on hurricanes. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Exploring Radiation, Water and Energy Closure in Key Deep Tropical Regions Over the Last 3 Decades

The closure of global energy and water budgets at various time scales depends heavily upon the on the processes of water and energy exchange in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance in key tropical regions is observed of water budget terms between observations and atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. For instance, periods of imbalance in the water budget may be at least partly attributed to precipitation estimates due to the transition between cloud and precipitation systems in which ice cloud affects microwave radar estimates (Lietmann-Niimi et al. 2024, submitted). A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process is characterized by wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures as well. This is just one example how these processes also affect the radiative fluxes and thus the energy budget at the TOA. In this presentation, we assess the net radiative budget and components in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES EBAF/SYN1deg Ed4.2, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the temporal variability of energy balance terms across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present in six key oceanic regions. These six key tropical oceanic regions are West Indian Ocean, the south Indian Ocean east, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. In these regions we assess the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear to assess the uncertainties of energy closure in these regions. These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. These differences also affect closure terms and inferences on systematic uncertainties within the observational estimates. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work

Radiation budget↗

Incoherent scatter radar observations of irregular structure in mid-latitude sporadic E layers

The basic experiments used phase-coded pulses to record electron density profiles with a resolution of 600 m in range and 300 m in horizontal extent, while scanning in azimuth. Data from incoherent scatter radar were compared with simultaneous ionosonde observations. Observations of sporadic E layers by incoherent scatter radar were discussed in terms of the effects of the neutral wind system acting on metallic ions. Several features were noted in the data, which support the wind shear mechanism of layer formation. The sporadic E layers often contained a pronounced small-scale structure, especially at times when partially transparent echoes were observed by the ionosonde. Under specific conditions, the ions in a meteor trail can be converged by a shear in the neutral wind into a relatively small irregularity at the center of a sporadic E layer.

Miller, K. L.↗

The use of a simplified isentropic model for short-term aviation forecasting

A simple, multiple-layer, isentropic potential vorticity forecast model is described for predicting short-term atmospheric changes between 12-hourly radiosonde observations. The model and the model initialization technique are described, and a case study with both convection and strong horizontal wind shear is discussed. The wind and stream function field forecasts and the forecast areas of convective instability are constrasted with observational results to assess the model's strengths and weaknesses. Excellent agreement is obtained between model predictions and observations.

Homan, J. H.↗

Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM)

4D model provides atmospheric parameter values either automatically at positions along linear path or along any set of connected positions specified by user. Based on actual data, GRAM provides thermal wind shear for monthly mean winds, percent deviation from standard atmosphere, mean vertical wind, and perturbation data for each position.

Johnson, D. L.↗