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DOE OSTI2021

Error-Level-Controlled Synthetic Forecasts for Renewable Generation

Renewable energy resources, including solar and wind energy, play a significant role in sustainable energy systems. However, the inherent uncertainty and intermittency of renewable generation pose challenges to the safe and efficient operation of power systems. Recognizing the importance of short-term (hours ahead) renewable generation forecasting in power systems operation, it becomes crucial to address the potential inaccuracies in these forecasts. To systematically evaluate the performance of controllers in the presence of imperfect forecasts, we generate synthetic forecasts using actual renewable generation profiles (one from solar and one from wind). These synthetic forecasts incorporate different levels of statistical error, allowing us to control and manipulate the accuracy of the predictions. The primary objective is to employ synthetic forecasts with controlled yet realistic error levels to systematically investigate how controllers adapt to variations in forecast accuracy, providing valuable insights into their robustness and effectiveness under real-world conditions.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience in an Evolving Electrical Grid

Fundamental shifts in the structure and generation profile of electrical grids are occurring amidst increased demand for resilience. These two simultaneous trends create the need for new planning and operational practices for modern grids that account for the compounding uncertainties inherent in both resilience assessment and increasing contribution of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources. This work reviews the research work addressing the changing generation profile, state-of-the-art practices to address resilience, and research works at the intersection of these two topics in regards to electrical grids. The contribution of this work is to highlight the ongoing research in power system resilience and integration of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources in electrical grids, and to identify areas of current and further study at this intersection. Areas of research identified at this intersection include cyber-physical analysis of solar, wind, and distributed energy resources, microgrids, network evolution and observability, substation automation and self-healing, and probabilistic planning and operation methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy: Preprint

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoltaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2024

High Penetration Microgrids Providing Grid Stability Using Frequency-Watt Control Presentation

The U.S. grid is rapidly transitioning towards utilizing inverter-based renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and batteries, reducing the carbon emission footprint.Inverter-based microgrid control architectures remain a critical focus to address power system stability issues in future high penetration markets lacking spinning generation assets. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is researching an active layered inverter based frequency-Watt control scheme that provides distribution level stability in high-penetration markets where grid inertia is lacking. Hardware in the loop case study was implemented using INL’s Microgrid Testbed to combat scalable frequency deviations ranging from 60 Hz down to 50 Hz initialized by a hydropower model implementing step loads using a 540-kW grid emulator. Our research findings demonstrate the importance of distribution level, inverter-based active frequency-Watt controls utilizing a battery energy storage system (BESS) to provide adequate frequency support at the point of common coupling without major power infrastructure upgrades.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change

This dataset provides future supply curves representing the total resource potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the conterminous United States after accounting for the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULC). We use LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The LULC projections are subsequently fed into the renewable energy potential model (reV), which estimates total available wind and solar capacity after excluding non-developable land. Supply curves are provided for four IPCC scenarios in 2050: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. As a baseline, we also provide the supply curve from the B2 scenario in 2010. In addition to the supply curves, we also provide representative wind and solar generation profiles for each supply curve point. These generation profiles are provided as capacity factors and are based on a 2012 weather year using NSRDB and WindToolkit resource data. For more details on the supply curve and profile datasets included here please refer to README. Additional information on the supply curves and the LULC projections used to generate them, as well as an analysis of their impact on wind and solar deployment under decarbonization can be found in the publication linked below: "U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change Publication".

Array↗

DOE OSTI2020

A robust offering strategy for wind producers considering uncertainties of demand response and wind power

This paper proposes a risk-constrained decision-making approach for a wind power producer participating in the day-ahead market. In the developed model, a flexible demand response trading scheme between the wind power producer and different customers is employed. Through the proposed demand response mechanism, the wind power producer is able to trade demand response resource internally with different customers, and then trade energy externally with the market to increase the expected profit and the wind energy utilization. The uncertainties in the wind power and demand response are modeled by using the information gap decision theory approach from risk averse (robust) and risk-seeking (opportunistic) perspectives. The objective of the robust model is to maximize the robust level while satisfying the desired profit, whereas the opportunistic model aims to evaluate the possibility of achieving windfall profits with favorable uncertainties. The overall offering strategy problem is modeled as a bi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming, which is linearized by proper techniques and solved efficiently by using the normal boundary intersection technique. In this work, simulation results show that utilizing demand response resource to mitigate wind power deviations can increase a wind power producer's profit and reduce potential risks. In addition, the results demonstrate that the proposed bi-objective optimization approach enables the wind power producer to select appropriate offering decisions with respect to uncertainties.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solar PV, Wind Generation, and Load Forecasting Dataset for ERCOT 2018: Performance-Based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (P.E.R.F.O.R.M.)

This report describes the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy Performance-Based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) dataset consisting of load, solar, and wind deterministic and probabilistic forecasts at three timescales. This dataset consists of 1 year of time-coincident load, wind, and solar actuals and probabilistic forecasts for a region similar to ERCOT. All the data are stored in Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) files and have been uploaded to an Amazon Web Services repository. The ERCOT data set has 2 years (2017, 2018) of actuals and 1 year (2018) of probabilistic forecasts. These data are provided at various spatial (i.e., site-level, zone-level, and system-level) and temporal scales (i.e., day-ahead, intraday, and intra-hour). Specifically, data are provided for 125 existing wind sites, 22 existing solar sites, 139 proposed wind sites, and 204 proposed solar sites.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Value of Distributed Wind: A Valuation Framework

While there has been an increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption, particularly for solar photovoltaic (PV) DERs, distributed wind deployment is still relatively low. However, distributed wind has significant growth potential for behind-the-meter applications and can provide improved resource diversity and resilience in high-DER grid systems. In order to make optimized decisions about distributed wind deployment, it is important to identify and characterize the value streams of distributed wind in a way that will help policy makers, microgrid developers, utilities, project developers, and others understand the potential value of distributed wind. In our paper, we develop a framework to provide a consistent and comprehensive approach to finding the net benefits of distributed wind to various stakeholders in different scenarios. We do this by considering the main use cases for distributed wind, and then developing a framework which is flexible for these various use cases and the relevant stakeholders while maintaining the same overall structure for analysis. Ongoing work includes applying this framework to valuing two distributed wind power systems, one in a remote village in Alaska and one in a front-of-the-meter deployment in Iowa. Our analysis aims to understand the full value that distributed wind is providing in these systems, including the resilience benefits it is contributing. As a better understanding of distributed wind valuation is gained, it will be easier for stakeholders to make informed decisions in order to have resilient renewable energy systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the exposure of three diving bird species to offshore wind areas on the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf using satellite telemetry

Abstract Aim The United States Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) has considerable offshore wind energy potential. Capturing that resource is part of a broader effort to reduce CO 2 emissions. While few turbines have been constructed in U.S. waters, over a dozen currently planned offshore wind projects have the potential to displace marine birds, potentially leading to effective habitat loss. We focused on three diving birds identified in Europe to be vulnerable to displacement. Our research aimed to determine their potential exposure to areas designated or proposed for offshore wind development along the Atlantic OCS. Methods Satellite tracking technology was used to determine the spatial and temporal use and movement patterns of Surf Scoters ( Melanitta perspicillata ), Red‐throated Loons ( Gavia stellata ) and Northern Gannets ( Morus bassanus ), and calculate their exposure to each offshore wind area. We tagged 236 adults in 2012–2015 on the Atlantic OCS from New Jersey to North Carolina; an additional 147 birds tagged in previous tracking studies were integrated into our analyses. Tracking data were analysed in two‐week intervals using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models to develop composite spatial utilization distributions. For each species, these distributions were then used to calculate the spatio‐temporal exposure to each offshore wind area. Results Surf Scoters and Red‐throated Loons were exposed to offshore wind areas almost exclusively during migration because these species were distributed among coastal and inshore waters during winter months. In contrast, Northern Gannets ranged over a much larger area, reaching farther offshore and south in winter, thus exhibited the greatest exposure to extant offshore wind areas. Conclusions Results of this study provide better understanding of how diving birds use current and potential future offshore wind areas on the Atlantic OCS, and can inform permitting, risk assessment and pre‐ and post‐construction impact assessments of offshore energy infrastructure.

Stenhouse, Iain J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

ERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Additionally, gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards a Workforce Roadmap for Distributed Wind: Phase 1 - Identifying Needs and Barriers

Despite recent policy, research efforts, and resources available for utility-scale and offshore wind workforce development, the distributed wind (DW) industry has yet to make similar advances to address its workforce challenges. This report initiates the phased development of a DW workforce roadmap to provide a foundation for roadmap development. Phase 1, contained in this report, uses desk-based research on clean energy workforce approaches and a DW interested-party survey to discuss needs and barriers hindering the workforce from expanding. Findings are summarized into goals and solutions for Phase 2 of roadmap development, which identifies actors responsible for implementing solutions identified in Phase 1. Phase 1 results suggest that the sector's small size and limited growth motivate the short-term need for skilled workers or candidates with well-rounded and multifaceted abilities. Long-term expansion plans must diversify positions while capitalizing on existing utility-scale wind and offshore workforce efforts, as well as other renewable sector best practices where possible. The findings in this report can advance workforce development in the DW sector by aligning interested industry parties around common goals to address challenges. Training providers, installers, operators, manufacturers, federal agencies, national laboratories, academic partners, and labor unions can utilize the findings to help promote sustainable growth of the DW sector.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Open Source High Fidelity Modeling of a Type-5 Wind Turbine Drivetrain

The increasing integration of renewable energy resources in evolving bulk power system (BPS) is impacting the system inertia. Type-5 wind turbine generation has the potential to behave like a traditional synchronous generator and can help mitigate the impact on system inertia. A hydraulic torque converter (TC) and gearbox with torque limiting feature are integral parts of a Type-5 wind turbine unit. A high fidelity model of Type-5 wind turbine drivetrain is not openly and widely available for grid integration and transient stability studies. This hinders appropriate assessment of Type-5 wind power plant’s contribution to bulk grid resilience. This work develops and validates a TC model based on those generally used in automobile’s transmission system. Moreover, the concept of torsional coupling is leveraged to integrate the TC and gearbox system dynamics. The entire integrated model will be open sourced and publicly available for grid integration studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility Study for Renewable Energy Technologies in Alaska Offshore Waters

This study assesses the feasibility of ocean-based renewable energy sources for decarbonizing the energy supply, increasing coastal resilience, and building energy security and independence in Alaska with a focus on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) areas south of the Bering Strait and approximately east of the 169th meridian. Alaska's OCS holds vast renewable energy resource potential including, but not limited to, offshore wind, tidal and wave energy. However, most of this energy resource is "stranded" far from load centers (populations or industrial facilities) that could use the power. Therefore, developing these resources would also require monetizing the resource in some way. In this study we investigate hydrogen production as one monetizing opportunity, and we briefly discuss other possible markets for electricity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

School district revenue shocks, resource allocations, and student achievement: Evidence from the universe of U.S. wind energy installations

Not Available

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Acoustic Travel-Time Tomography for Wind Energy

New remote sensing technologies for direct observation of the atmospheric flow in the proximity of operating wind turbines are necessary for the advancement of wind turbine design, wind plant control, and the validation of high-fidelity numerical models; fundamental goals of the DOE Wind Energy Technology Office's (WETO's) A2e program. Modern remote sensing technologies for commercial and research applications rely on the backscatter of light or sound waves, which limits spatial and temporal resolution and cannot produce reliable flow estimates near solid bodies or reflective surfaces. Acoustic tomography (AT) is an innovative sensing technology based on fundamental thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere and an inverse algorithm that can reconstruct both velocity and temperature fields within a network of acoustic transducers. AT relies on the direct travel path of acoustic signals between speakers and microphones in the network and can achieve much higher resolutions than conventional backscatter technologies. For wind energy R&D applications, AT represents an extremely economical option over other remote sensing technologies, integrating mature and commonly available acoustic and signal processing hardware. This report is intended as an update on the development of the AT array on the NREL Flatirons Campus (FC) and includes a brief review of the instrumentation, the calibration of equipment, signal processing, and resulting flow field estimates. Designs for future AT systems and applications are detailed in this report, including summaries of new capabilities, engineering and theoretical challenges, and anticipated costs help to outline future directions for AT technology R\&D. The potential for application of AT to utility-scale turbines is also discussed. Investing in the development of the proposed instrument will establish AT as a transformational RS technique that represents a significant advance in measurement instrumentation, enabling new fundamental insights into the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and supporting applications for wind energy, pollution transport, and resource characterization. AT is also an extremely economical option over other RS instruments, integrating mature and commonly available acoustic and signal processing hardware.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Drivers and energy justice implications of renewable energy project siting in the United States

The rapid expansion of solar and wind energy projects is raising questions of energy justice. Some scholars argue that solar and wind project development could burden under-resourced communities with negative impacts such as environmental harm and reduced access to resources. Conversely, other scholars argue that project development could be a boon to under-resourced communities, providing local economic and cultural benefits. Here, we analyze the drivers of solar and wind project siting patterns in the United States and explore their potential energy justice implications. We find that siting patterns are driven primarily by technoeconomic factors, especially resource quality and access to open undeveloped spaces. These technoeconomic factors channel projects into sparsely populated rural areas and, to a lesser extent, areas with lower income levels. Here, we avoid simplifying assumptions about the broad justice implications of these siting patterns and explore our results from multiple perspectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗