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Overview of the Tolerance Limit Calculations with Application to TSURFER

To establish confidence in the results of computerized physics models, a key regulatory requirement is to develop a scientifically defendable process. The methods employed for confidence, characterization, and consolidation, or C3, are statistically involved and are often accessible only to avid statisticians. This manuscript serves as a pedagogical presentation of the C3 process to all stakeholders—including researchers, industrial practitioners, and regulators—to impart an intuitive understanding of the key concepts and mathematical methods entailed by C3. The primary focus is on calculation of tolerance limits, which is the overall goal of the C3 process. Tolerance limits encode the confidence in the calculation results as communicated to the regulator. Understanding the C3 process is especially critical today, as the nuclear industry is considering more innovative ways to assess new technologies, including new reactor and fuel concepts, via an integrated approach that optimally combines modeling and simulation and minimal targeted validation experiments. This manuscript employs intuitive, analytical, numerical, and visual representations to explain how tolerance limits may be calculated for a wide range of configurations, and it also describes how their values may be interpreted. Various verification tests have been developed to test the calculated tolerance limits and to help delineate their values. The manuscript demonstrates the calculation of tolerance limits for TSURFER, a computer code developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for criticality safety applications. The goal is to evaluate the tolerance limit for TSURFER-determined criticality biases to support the determination of upper, subcritical limits for regulatory purposes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s

There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.

Potter, Christopher S.↗

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Pre-Transient Characterization of Historic EBR-II Pins for Transient Testing

Current interest in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designs, such as TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor, has highlighted the need for advanced reactor fuel technology development. Modern U-Zr and U- Pu-Zr pin designs are primary candidates to fuel SFRs and boast high fuel utilization capacity, increased fuel-cladding compatibility, and improved safety through inherent feedback mechanisms. Despite over 60 years of metallic fuel irradiation, uncertainties exist in the performance of the fuel system, particularly under transient overpower (TOP) and loss of flow (LOF) scenarios. Throughout historical testing within the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), fuel behavior has demonstrated benign response to transient reactor conditions; however, accurate predictions of failure thresholds to inform operational limitations rely heavily on fuel composition, burnup, and irradiation history. In expanding TOP and LOF testing, the Transient Heat sink Overpower Response (THOR) Capsule will be used to test modern fuel technologies in a static sodium environment in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility. The THOR capsule is highly instrumented and will provide time-dependent thermal behavior of SFR fuel pins subjected to accident conditions within TREAT. The THOR-Metallic (THOR- M) campaign aims to validate and expand historical TOP and LOF testing on high burnup U-Zr and U-Pu- Zr fuel alloys previously irradiated in EBR-II by running the rods to failure. This contribution focuses primarily on the pre-transient engineering-scale destructive and non- destructive characterization that has been conducted on both the test and sibling pins used for the TOP and LOF tests. All pins underwent visual examination, neutron radiography, element contact profilometry, and precise gamma scan. The sibling pins used for each test were further analyzed using gas assay, sampling, and recharge analysis (GASR), and optical microscopy. The results from each technique confirmed that the fuel pins were intact and devoid of any atypical developments when compared to historical data. Additionally, the analyzed measurements establish a baseline for comparison to post-transient analysis. Key fuel behaviors quanitifed include axial elongation of the fuel column, diametral strain of the pin, patterns in fluff structure geometry, changes in axial isotope distribution, evolution of constituent redistribution, porosity, and fission gas release. The pre-transient measurements and changes attributed to transient behavior from post-transient measurement will be compared to historical data to capture the behavioral dependence on composition, burnup, and irradiation history. Results from this work advance the initiatives of the THOR-M campaign, which aid in informing fuel performance models and establishing safety criteria for SFR operational limits. The novel combination of test environment, in-situ instrumentation, and comprehensive suite of characterization methods provides greater understanding of transient fuel behavior. Overall, information on the time and condition of pin failure for high burnup U-Pu-Zr will greatly expand the limited existing TOP and LOF test data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Pre-Transient Characterization of Historic EBR-II Pins for Transient Testing

Current interest in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designs, such as TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor, has highlighted the need for advanced reactor fuel technology development. Modern U-Zr and U- Pu-Zr pin designs are primary candidates to fuel SFRs and boast high fuel utilization capacity, increased fuel-cladding compatibility, and improved safety through inherent feedback mechanisms. Despite over 60 years of metallic fuel irradiation, uncertainties exist in the performance of the fuel system, particularly under transient overpower (TOP) and loss of flow (LOF) scenarios. Throughout historical testing within the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), fuel behavior has demonstrated benign response to transient reactor conditions; however, accurate predictions of failure thresholds to inform operational limitations rely heavily on fuel composition, burnup, and irradiation history. In expanding TOP and LOF testing, the Transient Heat sink Overpower Response (THOR) Capsule will be used to test modern fuel technologies in a static sodium environment in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility. The THOR capsule is highly instrumented and will provide time-dependent thermal behavior of SFR fuel pins subjected to accident conditions within TREAT. The THOR-Metallic (THOR- M) campaign aims to validate and expand historical TOP and LOF testing on high burnup U-Zr and U-Pu- Zr fuel alloys previously irradiated in EBR-II by running the rods to failure. This contribution focuses primarily on the pre-transient engineering-scale destructive and non- destructive characterization that has been conducted on both the test and sibling pins used for the TOP and LOF tests. All pins underwent visual examination, neutron radiography, element contact profilometry, and precise gamma scan. The sibling pins used for each test were further analyzed using gas assay, sampling, and recharge analysis (GASR), and optical microscopy. The results from each technique confirmed that the fuel pins were intact and devoid of any atypical developments when compared to historical data. Additionally, the analyzed measurements establish a baseline for comparison to post-transient analysis. Key fuel behaviors quanitifed include axial elongation of the fuel column, diametral strain of the pin, patterns in fluff structure geometry, changes in axial isotope distribution, evolution of constituent redistribution, porosity, and fission gas release. The pre-transient measurements and changes attributed to transient behavior from post-transient measurement will be compared to historical data to capture the behavioral dependence on composition, burnup, and irradiation history. Results from this work advance the initiatives of the THOR-M campaign, which aid in informing fuel performance models and establishing safety criteria for SFR operational limits. The novel combination of test environment, in-situ instrumentation, and comprehensive suite of characterization methods provides greater understanding of transient fuel behavior. Overall, information on the time and condition of pin failure for high burnup U-Pu-Zr will greatly expand the limited existing TOP and LOF test data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NGEE Arctic Plant Traits: Plant Community Composition, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2016

This dataset reports the characteristics of the dominant vegetation communities at the NGEE Arctic Kougarok field site, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 64 on the Seward Peninsula. Selected plots were surveyed from 18-23 July 2016. Environmental data (e.g., elevation, slope, soil moisture regime, disturbance type and degree, mean canopy height, etc.) were also recorded for each plot. Elevation measurements were updated 2020-08-18. All plant species (vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens) were recorded along with their percent cover in the plots as determined visually by the lead author. Plots were chosen subjectively in areas of homogeneous and representative vegetation and varied in size from 1-25 m2 depending on canopy structure and height. The site is an east-facing hillslope with vegetation that varies from the summit to the toeslope. The 30 total plots were selected as five replicate plots sampled from each of the six identified habitat types: 1) non-acidic mountain complex at the hillcrest, 2) dwarf-shrub lichen tundra on the shoulder, 3) alder shrublands predominantly on an elevational band across the backslope, 4) willow-birch tundra on the upper backslope, 5) tussock tundra on the footslope in inter-water tracks, and 6) tussock tundra mixed with willow-birch tundra or alder savanna in poor developed water tracks on the footslope. This dataset is comprised of two comma-separated (*.csv) files containing species and environmental data for the plant community composition plots. It also contains seven zipped folders of plot photographs, one map showing plot locations (*.pdf), one blank datasheet with the key to codes used in the field (*.pdf), select photos organized in a (*.pdf), and one User file (*.pdf). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reliable and Efficient Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

Modern scientific experiments generate massive amounts of data at a pace much faster than humans can manually analyze. While machine learning has revolutionized commercial data analysis (such as recommending movies or recognizing faces), applying these tools to complex scientific discovery is challenging because scientific answers must be precise, interpretable, and adhere to physical laws. The research under this project aims to develop new mathematical tools and computer algorithms specifically designed for scientific applications. Major progress has been made in automatically cleaning and deconstructing messy experimental data, analyzing the visual information of physical phenomena, determining the underlying physical variables, and providing rig orous mathematical analysis of interesting algorithms and concepts widely used in machine learning. This project addressed the critical gap between our ability to generate massive scientific data and our ability to extract interpretable information from it. We established mathematical foundations for Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) aimed at effective data analytics and automated discovery. Our work focused on three core objectives: (1) developing reliable feature extraction methods for dynamic high-dimensional data, (2) establishing mathematical foundations for discovering dynamics via neural networks, and (3) creating rigorous optimization techniques for these models. Key outcomes come from two fronts. On the practical side, they include the development of algorithms that significantly enhance the extraction of signals from field data, as well as the capability to handle situations that exhibit smooth variations or physical stretching due to temperature changes. They also include the creation of an automated framework for discovering fundamental state variables from raw experimental data, demonstrating the ability to identify intrinsic physical dimensions without prior knowledge of the governing laws. On the theoretical front, the research results in theoretical advances in Optimal Transport, a widely used notion in SciML, specifically regarding functions with fixed-size nodal sets, provide sharp bounds relevant to uncertainty quantification. Meanwhile, the outcomes also include the establishment of convergence theories for nonlocal gradient descent methods, enabling robust optimization with noisy data in high-dimensional settings commonly encountered in scientific modeling. The project also helps creating opportunities to train the next generation of researchers, equipping them with the necessary technical skills for today’s workplace and preparing them for future advances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A 3D Simulation Platform for Decentralized Decision-Making in Advanced Air Mobility

This paper presents a general purpose, plug-and-play simulation platform for the use of future aviation stakeholders, such as urban airspace planners, air vehicle operators, ground operation managers, air traffic controllers and aviation researchers. The presented simulator platform is envisioned to serve as a toolkit to visualize, evaluate, and configure future advanced air mobility (AAM) operations. Highlighting features of this toolkit include a modular architecture that allows multiple smart unmanned aerial systems (UASs) to remotely connect to the simulation server and participate in decentralized decision-making scenario simulations. As an example of the decentralized decision-making scenario, an inter-agent negotiation-based conflict resolution use case is considered in this paper, where the UASs leverage the on-board/on-the-edge artificial intelligence (AI) capability to continually build situational awareness, and use this information to predict future conflicts and resolve them through machine-to-machine negotiation. As such operations are non-existent at scale currently, the presented simulation platform offers a viable and cost-effective alternative for assessing the efficacy of AAM research outcomes and challenges in future shared airspace usage. The simulation platform allows plug-n-play connectivity with AI and non-AI compute modules representing individual UAS’s flight control. Each module can interact with the simulation platform independently to communicate current and desired future states, situational awareness, and conflict resolution utilization costs for inter-agent negotiation. The simulation environment orchestrates realistic operational scenarios with spatiotemporal details, dynamic events, tactical conflict-resolution methods, interfaces for customizing air traffic control parameters, and information exchange uncertainties. In the future, this can serve as a community focused cloud simulation platform, incorporating multi-stakeholder airspace constraints from regulatory, government, city, and local agencies.

Aditya N Das↗

A 3D Simulation Platform for Decentralized Decision-Making in Advanced Air Mobility

This paper presents a general purpose, plug-and-play simulation platform for the use of future aviation stakeholders, such as urban airspace planners, air vehicle operators, ground operation managers, air traffic controllers and aviation researchers. The presented simulator platform is envisioned to serve as a toolkit to visualize, evaluate, and configure future advanced air mobility (AAM) operations. Highlighting features of this toolkit include a modular architecture that allows multiple smart unmanned aerial systems (UASs) to remotely connect to the simulation server and participate in decentralized decision-making scenario simulations. As an example of the decentralized decision-making scenario, an inter-agent negotiation-based conflict resolution use case is considered in this paper, where the UASs leverage the on-board/on-the-edge artificial intelligence (AI) capability to continually build situational awareness, and use this information to predict future conflicts and resolve them through machine-to-machine negotiation. As such operations are non-existent at scale currently, the presented simulation platform offers a viable and cost-effective alternative for assessing the efficacy of AAM research outcomes and challenges in future shared airspace usage. The simulation platform allows plug-n-play connectivity with AI and non-AI compute modules representing individual UAS’s flight control. Each module can interact with the simulation platform independently to communicate current and desired future states, situational awareness, and conflict resolution utilization costs for inter-agent negotiation. The simulation environment orchestrates realistic operational scenarios with spatiotemporal details, dynamic events, tactical conflict-resolution methods, interfaces for customizing air traffic control parameters, and information exchange uncertainties. In the future, this can serve as a community focused cloud simulation platform, incorporating multi-stakeholder airspace constraints from regulatory, government, city, and local agencies.

Aditya Das↗

Coupling SCALE with DAKOTA for Axial Burnup Profiles Assessment in Burnup Credit

This paper presents a computational study that demonstrates the application of the SCALE code system in conjunction with the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) for the analysis of key factors influencing the evaluation of burnup credit (BUC) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The primary objective of this analysis is to characterize the model by utilizing parameterization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization studies. Using this approach, we can comprehensively assess the system and conduct informed predictive studies. This study highlights the effectiveness of the SCALE code system integrated within the DAKOTA framework in terms of efficiency and capability. With the coupling of the burnup code ORIGAMI with the CSAS or TSUNAMI-3D sequence embedded in a DAKOTA analysis, we can characterize the factors that influence the k eff of PWR 17x17 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the GBC-32 computational benchmark cask for the assessment of BUC in criticality safety analysis. The coupling methodology used in this study is not exclusive to BUC analysis. However, the choice to apply this methodology to the BUC problem is particularly significant because of the diverse range of aspects it encompasses in nuclear criticality safety analyses. This problem presents a unique opportunity to explore and address multiple facets of such analyses related to BUC and illustrates the capability of the SCALE code system with DAKOTA. This analysis makes use of historical reference data for the axial burnup profile, where the entire space within the bounds is considered. Both SCALE and DAKOTA are currently integrated in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling Simulation (NEAMS) Workbench code system, which has a user-friendly graphical interface that simplifies the setup of simulations and configuration of input parameters as well as the visualization of simulation results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Demonstration of a Spoken Dialogue Interface for Planning Activities of a Semi-autonomous Robot

Planning and scheduling in the face of uncertainty and change pushes the capabilities of both planning and dialogue technologies by requiring complex negotiation to arrive at a workable plan. Planning for use of semi-autonomous robots involves negotiation among multiple participants with competing scientific and engineering goals to co-construct a complex plan. In NASA applications this plan construction is done under severe time pressure so having a dialogue interface to the plan construction tools can aid rapid completion of the process. But, this will put significant demands on spoken dialogue technology, particularly in the areas of dialogue management and generation. The dialogue interface will need to be able to handle the complex dialogue strategies that occur in negotiation dialogues, including hypotheticals and revisions, and the generation component will require an ability to summarize complex plans. This demonstration will describe a work in progress towards building a spoken dialogue interface to the EUROPA planner for the purposes of planning and scheduling the activities of a semi-autonomous robot. A prototype interface has been built for planning the schedule of the Personal Satellite Assistant (PSA), a mobile robot designed for micro-gravity environments that is intended for use on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station. The spoken dialogue interface gives the user the capability to ask for a description of the plan, ask specific questions about the plan, and update or modify the plan. We anticipate that a spoken dialogue interface to the planner will provide a natural augmentation or alternative to the visualization interface, in situations in which the user needs very targeted information about the plan, in situations where natural language can express complex ideas more concisely than GUI actions, or in situations in which a graphical user interface is not appropriate.

Dowding, John↗

An Updated Visual Orbit of the Directly Imaged Exoplanet 51 Eridani b and Prospects for a Dynamical Mass Measurement with Gaia

We present a revision to the visual orbit of the young, directly imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b using four years of observations with the Gemini Planet Imager. The relative astrometry is consistent with an eccentric (e=0.53{sub -0.13}{sup +0.09}) orbit at an intermediate inclination (i=136{sub -11}{sup +10} °), although circular orbits cannot be excluded due to the complex shape of the multidimensional posterior distribution. We find a semimajor axis of 11.1{sub -1.3}{sup +4.2} au and a period of 28.1{sub -4.9}{sup +17.2} yr, assuming a mass of 1.75 M{sub ⊙} for the host star. We find consistent values with a recent analysis of VLT/SPHERE data covering a similar baseline. We investigate the potential of using the absolute astrometry of the host star to obtain a dynamical mass constraint for the planet. The astrometric acceleration of 51 Eri derived from a comparison of the Hipparcos and Gaia catalogs was found to be inconsistent at the 2σ–3σ level with the predicted reflex motion induced by the orbiting planet. Potential sources of this inconsistency include a combination of random and systematic errors between the two astrometric catalogs and the signature of an additional companion within the system interior to current detection limits. We also explored the potential of using Gaia astrometry alone for a dynamical mass measurement of the planet by simulating Gaia measurements of the motion of the photocenter of the system over the course of the extended 8 yr mission. We find that such a measurement is only possible (>98% probability) given the most optimistic predictions for the Gaia scan astrometric uncertainties for bright stars and a high mass for the planet (≳3.6 M {sub Jup}).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NGEE Arctic Rainfall Simulator Validation Data from Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, Summer 2022

Experiments evaluating the uniformity and intensity of rainfall produced by the NGEE Arctic Rainfall Simulator (NARS) were conducted at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, over summer 2022. Petri dishes were placed in a grid within the NARS plot. Simulated rainfall was collected in each petri dish and the intensity and uniformity of the simulator was subsequently calculated. This data package contains two .csv files, one that summarizes the rainfall intensity and uniformity for each experiment, the other that contains individual petri dish water volume and intensity for each plot location and experiment. The Python scripts to control NARS are also included. The NGEE Arctic Rainfall Simulator (NARS) is a variable intensity rainfall simulator (RFS) with a frame design based on the Humphry et al. (2002) RFS and a water delivery system based on the Walnut Gulch (Paige et al., 2004) RFS. The NARS uses an aluminum frame that is fully deconstructable for transportation to field locations and a water system that enables variable rain intensity. Rain intensity control and data collection are automated using a Raspberry Pi microcomputer. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Preface to the Special Issue on TOUGH Symposium 2015

The TOUGH Symposium 2015 was held in Berkeley, California, September 28-30, 2015. The TOUGH family of codes, developed at the Energy Geosciences Division of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), is a suite of computer programs for the simulation of multiphase and multicomponent fluid and heat flows in porous and fractured media with applications in many geosciences fields, such as geothermal reservoir engineering, nuclear waste disposal, geological carbon sequestration, oil and gas reservoirs, gas hydrate research, vadose zone hydrology and environmental remediation. Since the first release in the 1980s, many modifications and enhancements have been continuously made to TOUGH and its various descendants (iTOUGH2, TOUGH+, TOUGH-MP, TOUGHREACT, TOUGH+HYDRATE, TMVOC...), at LBNL and elsewhere. Today, these codes are used worldwide in academia, government organizations and private companies in problems involving coupled hydrological, thermal, biogeochemical and geomechanical processes. The Symposia, organized every 2-3 years, bring together developers and users for an open exchange on recent code enhancements and applications. In 2015, the Symposium was attended by one hundred participants, representing thirty-four nationalities. This Special Issue in Computers & Geosciences gathers extended versions of selected Symposium proceedings related to (i) recent enhancements to the TOUGH family of codes and (ii) coupled flow and geomechanics processes modeling. In this special issue, a paper by Jung et al. provides a new base version of TOUGH, TOUGH3. This latest version addresses the computational robustness and efficiency needed for the increasing complexity of the simulated processes and the growing size of model domains. Moreover, it consolidates the serial and parallel versions into a single code, hence, inconsistencies between different versions are less likely to occur, and code maintenance and development become more efficient. Finsterle et al. present a review of the capabilities of iTOUGH2 and illustrate the workflow of an integrated simulation-optimization framework. Liu et al. present an approach to reduce the computational cost of performing Bayesian inverse modeling and demonstrate their approach using a synthetic experiment simulated with TOUGH2. Regarding the mesh generation process, the paper by Doughty presents a generalization of the grid-generation algorithm embedded in TOUGH2 (MESHMAKER) to create one-column grids with fractal dimension, useful for representing flow through fractures or highly heterogeneous media with fractal geometry, and also for inverse methods. Sentís and Gable present a module to interface the open source code Lagrit with TOUGH2, that assists in the processes of mesh generation and model setup, and that can be particularly useful for complex geometries and large models. Bonduà et al. present a pre-processing tool (VORO2MESH) that features a full 3D Voronoi approach for structured and unstructured grids, and an enhanced post-processor (TOUGH2Viewer) for the visualization of 3D Voronoi grids. The literature review shows that coupled fluid flow and geomechanics has gained increasing attention in the last years in many geosciences fields. In this context, several codes of the TOUGH family have been successfully coupled with geomechanics software. The paper by Rutqvist presents a review of some of these TOUGH-based geomechanics models, of which the TOUGH-FLAC simulator – presented for the first time in the TOUGH Symposium 2003 – is well-known worldwide and has been used in a large variety of applications, encompassing the application domains of the TOUGH codes. Blanco-Martín et al. present an extension of TOUGH-FLAC to the finite strain framework, motivated by the existence of large strains associated with rock salt deformation in the context of heat-generating nuclear waste disposal. Following a paper published in the Special Issue of the TOUGH Symposium 2012 in this journal, Kim et al. present the current status of the TOUGH-RSBN simulator for coupled hydro-mechanical modeling of hydraulic fracturing using a discrete fracture network approach, and present some validation and demonstration cases. Rinaldi and Nespoli present TOUGH-SEED, an injection-induced seismicity modeling approach using TOUGH2 and a geomechanics stochastic model, and apply it to the Basel EGS project. Finally, Rinaldi et al. use the PEST protocol implemented in iTOUGH2, combined with TOUGH-FLAC as the forward model, to perform inverse modeling for the In Salah CO2 demonstration site in Algeria. Using pore pressures and InSAR displacements as observations, this approach allows for a multi-physics joint inversion and takes advantage of the inverse capabilities of iTOUGH2 (parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty estimation …), applied to coupled fluid flow and geomechanics. On behalf of the members of the TOUGH Symposium 2015 Organizing Committee, I hope that this collection of papers will provide the readers of Computers & Geosciences with a recent view of the capabilities of the TOUGH family of codes, as well as with current modeling research domains in the geosciences. Last but not least, I would like to express my gratitude to all the reviewers who kindly contributed to this Special Issue, as well as the Journal staff who have made this publication possible.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Impact of Wake Vortices on Closely-Spaced Parallel Approaches

One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity of its largest airports. Many airports with closely spaced parallel runways suffer a severe runway acceptance rate when the weather conditions do not allow full utilization of these parallel runways. The present requirement for simultaneous independent landings in Instrument Meteorological Conditions, IMC, is at least 4300 feet of lateral runway spacing (as close as 3000 feet for runways with a Precision Runway Monitor). Operations in Visual Meteorological Conditions, VMC, to Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches only require a lateral runway spacing greater than 750 feet. A study by Hardy and Lewis integrated and extended earlier studies and concepts in lateral traffic separation, longitudinal station keeping, wake prediction, wake display, and the concepts of R N P into a preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches in IMC. This system allows IMC airport acceptance rates to approach those for VMC. The system concept that was developed, presented traffic and wake information on the NAVigation Display, NAV, and developed operational procedures for a mix of conventional and Runway Independent Aircraft with different approach speeds to Closely Spaced Parallel Runways. This paper first describes some improvements made on the technology needed to better predict and formulate a probabilistic representation for the time-dependent motion and spreading of the hazardous region associated with the lift-generated vortex wakes of preceding aircraft. In this way, the time at which the vortex wakes of leading aircraft intrude into the airspace of adjacent flight-corridor/runway combinations can be more reliably predicted. Such a prediction is needed because it determines restraints to be placed on in-trail separation distances; or, the allowable time intervals between aircraft executing nearly simultaneous landings or takeoffs on very closely-spaced runways. Improved estimates of wake spreading are achieved by inclusion of representations in the equations for wake spreading due to ambient turbulence and due to the long-wave instability of a vortex pair. Wake motion and spreading due to the time-averaged wind and its variations with time, are retained. The more detailed representation of wake spreading presented here permits the development of probabilistically-based uncertainty estimates for wake spreading. Measurements needed within actual aircraft wake vortices to validate and support this analysis are also described. The second part of the paper uses the improvements in the accuracy of the location of wake vortices to extend the preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches described earlier with more robust operational procedures. Additionally, improvements in longitudinal station keeping, wake display, and risk assessment methodologies are incorporated and described.

Hardy, Gordon H.↗

The Pan-Arctic Vegetation Cover (PAVC) database v1.1

The Pan-Arctic Vegetation Cover (PAVC) database contains synthesized field-data observations of vegetation cover from 978 Arctic Alaska plots with observations from 2010 to 2021. The cover datasets contain plot data at both the plant functional type (PFT) and species-level resolution, with standardized PFT definitions and species names. We synthesized publicly available point-intercept and visual estimate plots from the Arctic Vegetation Archive of Alaska, the Alaska Vegetation Plots Database, the North Slope Science Catalog, and the National Ecological Observatory Network; as well as previously unpublished data from the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic).Users will find four synthesized datasets, 4 associated data descriptor (dd) files, and 1 metadata file in the PAVC database:synthesized_species_fcover.csv contains fractional cover (fcover) for unique accepted species names, where names include vegetation identified at the family, genus, species, subspecies, and variety levels, as well as general functional types across all 5 data sources. The synthesized_species_fcover_dd.csv accompanies this dataset with header information.synthesized_pft_fcover.csv contains fcover for the following PFTs: non-vascular plants with lichen and bryophyte subcategories, trees with deciduous and evergreen subcategories, shrubs with deciduous and evergreen subcategories, graminoids (grasses), and forbs (herbaceous flowering plants) measured as total cover. Litter and “other” cover are also included as total cover. Additional “types” include water and bare ground, which were measured as top cover. The synthesized_pft_fcover_dd.csv accompanies this dataset with header information.species_pft_checklist.csv is a lookup table containing the translation from a dataset species name to an accepted species name and to a PFT. This table can be used to clarify our species to PFT adjudications, and to aid users in assigning their own PFTs. Any issues found in this checklist should be reported in the Issues tab of our github.survey_unit_information.csv contains auxiliary information about the plots synthesized in this database. It contains useful information for filtering plots of interest based on temporal, geospatial, and contextual information about the plot surveys.flmd.csv contains metadata information about each file in the database.This research was performed as a part of the NGEE Arctic project. The NGEE Arctic project was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗